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Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith
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CC details his PrizePicks and Underdog choices
It’s the final Wednesday of the regular season, and one of your final chances to take advantage of a full slate of games. Here’s some over/unders to take a look.
This is a little risky, but with risk comes opportunity. Glasnow has pitched ineffectively over his last three starts and has a 5.72 ERA in September in five outings. He’s also registered a 39/9 K/BB over that time, and the last time he faced Boston, he threw six innings of one-run baseball while adding 14 strikeouts for good measure. Glasnow is a good bet to bounce back based on his track record, and the Red Sox lineup offers plenty of chances to miss bats.
Tatis Jr. has had a disappointing fantasy season in 2023 -- if only because expectations are so high for one of the most talented players in the sport -- but there have been enough flashes of brilliance to believe in him when the right matchup comes along. That matchup could come Wednesday against a Giants team that was officially eliminated from the postseason on Tuesday against a hurler in Sean Manaea that is likely due for some regression. A combo meal (homer and stolen base) is well within reach, and the fact that Tatis hasn’t gone deep September 15 suggests he’s due for a round-tripper sooner than later.
Even after picking up hits in his last two games, Kirk has really struggled over the month of September. He’s hit just .213 with a paltry OPS of .696, and he’s slashed just .240/.324/.341 against right-handers during his 2023 campaign. Add in the fact that he’ll be facing off against Gerrit Cole -- the presumed 2023 Cy Young winner based on his body of work thus far -- and it’s hard to justify betting on Kirk picking up a pair of bases on Wednesday, with all due respect to the backstop.
Miller has had a strong rookie campaign; making the jump from Double-A and helping stabilize the Mariners’ rotation after the season-ending injuries to Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales. He also is a pitcher that hasn’t gone over this total often in 2023, with six of his last nine starts seeing him throw fewer than 90 pitches, including his last two. Some of that has to do with efficiency (5.1 scoreless innings against the Dodgers on September 16), and some of it because of some struggles (six runs in 4.1 frames in his last outing) that you see from rookie hurlers. Either way, it’s a good bet that Miller will be out of the game before he reaches the 90-pitch total against Houston Wednesday.
It’d be nice if this included walks because then it’d be a more obvious play; Julien has drawn seven walks over his last four games but hasn’t picked up a hit since last Wednesday. Considering how good he’s been in 2023 (.821 OPS, 14 homers in 105 games in his rookie campaign), it’s a good bet that the 24-year-old will start to see the hits dropping soon, and the fact he’s going up against the worst team in baseball in the A’s doesn’t hurt for this one, either. I’ll miss picking over/unders against the Athletics in 2023. Pretty good chance they’ll be a team to pick against in 2024, as well. Sorry, Oakland fans.
'Dr. A' breaks down who he'd want in all draft rounds
I started writing a ‘My Guys’ column about 10 years ago after I started to realize that my favorite part about drafting in fantasy hoops was taking a hype guy too early and making the draft room mad that they wouldn’t have a shot at getting that player. But it was a strategy that evolved over time.
When I first started playing fantasy hoops, sometime around 1991, I simply drafted basketball players I liked, with no clue about what kind of fantasy assets they might possess. Later, I learned that to win consistently you had to have two things: A killer instinct and the ability to draft with your head and not your heart. And while that kept me entertained for a few years, I started to figure out that all I really wanted to do was put together a team of players that had a chance to win AND that I could root for.
Maybe I tweaked what constituted me liking a player or maybe I just grew smarter over the years. In any case, people always seem to like this column and I try to find (mostly) young, up-and-coming players who might blow up this season, along with some of the old standby veterans that I seemingly can’t live without.
Am I telling you to reach for your guys a round or two early? Not exclusively, but sometimes it’s fun to shock the draft room and go get one of your guys a little early. It’s also different these days than it was in the 90s as everyone seems to have the same type of intel and there aren’t many secrets out there.
Sleepers are becoming a thing of the past so you have to reach a little to get the hyped-up players you really want, which I’m obviously fine with. So, without further ado, here is my 2023-24 version of ‘My Guys,’ exclusively for my new favorite website, Sportstopia!
And if you read my recent Mock Draft column, you may notice that I applied this strategy generously in that one, as well.
Luka Doncic, DAL G
I should have just saved my first entry about Luka from five years ago and copy and paste it every year, because my tune never changes. Yes, I know he stinks at free throws, turns the ball over, plays for a team lacking the help he needs to win and misses games. But, if the constant whining to the officials hasn’t turned you against him, he’s still the most exciting player to watch.
The counting stats are off the charts, he’s still just 24 and after five years of indisputable evidence that he can’t shoot free throws, I still think he can be an 80 percent shooter at the line one day.
I will probably be saying that for the next 10 years, but whatever. His ADP is sitting at about 3 and I’m going to continue to take him in every draft I can get him in unless I get the No. 1 pick. And even the acting president of the Luka fan club will be taking Nikola Jokic at No. 1. But outside of that, Luka is my pick.
And if Luka’s not available I’m hoping to have a Top 5 pick so I can get a shot at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Tyrese Haliburton.
Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM PF/C
What’s not to love about JJJ? He’s 24, a shot-blocking and steals machine, will have 25 games sans Ja Morant (suspension) in which he should be an offensive machine, and unlike some of his contemporaries (Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams, Mitchell Robinson), is living up to the hype. He’s also an elite free throw shooter for his size, can hit 3-pointers and doesn’t turn the ball over.
If I miss out on JJJ, the other Round 1-2 guys I’d like to see fall into the second round include LaMelo Ball (not going to happen) and Mikal Bridges. I was fully on board the Bridges bandwagon last season after the trade and am excited to see what he can do this year.
Victor Wembanyama OKC PF/C
I reached for Wemby at the end of Round 2 in my mock draft because I wanted to be sure to get him. A lot of people have jumped off the hype train and are suggesting he’s just going to be an average NBA player without the girth to be an elite big man.
I am not one of them. Even playing for Gregg Popovich and the risk that he’ll sit more than any of us would like to see, I’m all in on Wemby. And if it doesn’t happen this year, it’s coming next season. Like Coach Prime said, “Better get me now because this is the worst we’re gonna be.”
Wemby’s ADP sits at 30 but whether or not he’ll be available in Round 3 all depends on your league. I wanted to ensure I got him in that mock so I reached, but it’s not something I’ll do every time and he should be available in the early part of Round 3 in many leagues, at least for now.
If Wemby’s not available some of the other Round 3 targets I like are Desmond Bane (no Ja for 25 games) and Lauri Markkanen (last year was not a fluke).
Chet Holmgren C OKC
Big men coming off serious foot injuries are risky business, but something tells me Holmgren is going to stay healthy and have a monster year. So much so that I reached for him in Round 3 of my mock. His ADP is sitting around 40 currently and, while that could go up or down before the drafts start counting, he should be available late in Round 3 or early in Round 4.
Other fourth-round players I’m into would include Walker Kessler, Dejounte Murray, De’Aaron Fox, Jalen Brunson and Myles Turner, depending on what my team looked like after the first three picks.
Jalen Williams OKC SG/SF
Williams was a blast to watch last season and he’s getting some post-hype gruff due to the fact SGA might take over the league this season, while Josh Giddey and Holmgren are also going to have the ball in their hands a lot. But Williams is just 22, is coming off a solid rookie season and fully blew up in March when he averaged 19.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.3 3-pointers and just 1.9 turnovers in 34 minutes per game (15 games). Just don’t draft the wrong Jaylin Williams from OKC.
Other Round 5 targets include Alperen Sengun, Giddey, Jarrett Allen and Franz Wagner. Call me crazy but Paolo Banchero is not really one of my guys. I get the hype and the upside but just didn’t love the 20 points, 6.9 rebounds, 0.5 blocks, 74 percent free throw shooting, 42.7 percent field goal percentage and the 1.2 triples per game while getting 34 minutes a night and having no competition for the ball on a really bad team. He’ll probably prove me wrong at some point, but I’m OK with that.
Derrick White BOS G
Marcus Smart is in Memphis (where he should do very well) and White could now take control of the Boston offense. He’s a little older at 29 but if you look at his 11 February games last season he averaged 19.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 2.8 3-pointers. He’s not a great stealer of the ball but he’s lights-out from the free throw line and shoots it well from the field. I think he’s primed for his biggest season yet.
Other Round 6 targets include Jerami Grant, Tyrese Maxey (especially if James Harden sits out), Cameron Johnson, Devin Vassell and Michael Porter Jr. I’m not touching Zion Williamson with a 10-foot pole, but he went in Round 6 in that mock draft.
Tyus Jones WAS PG
As long as Jones is the starting point guard for the Wizards, he should be good to go this season. He never really had big numbers in Memphis, but he was always trapped behind Morant, which won’t be the case in Washington. Yes, he might have to slap Jordan Poole around to get the ball out of his hands and the Wiz will be one of the worst teams in the league, but Jones should be a point guard steal in drafts this season. He’s 27 years old.
Other Round 7 targets include Buddy Hield, Marcus Smart and Morant.
De’Anthony Melton PHI G
There’s a lot to love about Round 8 this season and here’s how the mock draft I’ve obsessively talked about throughout this column went:
I’m not touching Draymond Green. Danny Gafford currently doesn’t qualify as a center in Yahoo! and Trey Murphy is hurt. But I kind of like the rest of these guys. Just keep in mind C.J. McCollum takes a hit if Zion and Brandon Ingram can actually stay healthy, Jalen Green gets a boost from the absence of Kevin Porter Jr. but also takes a hit with the arrival of Fred VanVleet, and Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe’s value could be tied to what happens with Damian Lillard (we’re hearing Toronto is leading the way now).
So, after all that my preferred order is Melton, Mark Williams, Austin Reaves and Jabari Smith. I took Melton at the end of Round 8 and if Harden continues to fight with the Sixers and sits out or pouts his way out of Philly, Melton is going to blow up. His game is built for fantasy success if he can get a lead role. And Williams is on nearly everyone’s sleeper list as a breakout center candidate for Charlotte.
Tre Jones SAS PG
Jones is in a similar position to that of Tyus Jones in Washington except that he’s four years younger and will be playing with Wemby. He made a huge leap last season by doubling up on his points, assists, steals and 3-pointers from the previous season, he shoots it well from everywhere and doesn’t turn the ball over much. Point guards are gold in fantasy these days and both of the Jones’ should be primed for big years without breaking your draft bank.
Other Round 9 targets include Keegan Murray (he can’t be that bad again, right?), Onyeka Okongwu, John Collins and Spencer Dinwiddie.
Bruce Brown IND G/SF
The Pacers paid Brown big money to come to Indy over the summer and while some depth charts don’t show him as a starter, I’ll believe it when I see it. He’s capable of holding offenses and defenses together on both ends of the floor and should be one of Haliburton’s favorite teammates. Coaches love him, Pacers fans will love him and I think he’ll do a little bit of everything for fantasy managers without hurting them anywhere. He’s a perfect Round 10 selection, in my opinion.
Players I will be targeting in the later rounds include (in no particular order): Jordan Clarkson, Gary Trent Jr., Zach Collins, Immanuel Quickley, Amen Thompson, Jaden Ivey, Jarace Walker, Dennis Schroder (if Dame Lillard doesn’t show up in Toronto and ruin him), Obi Toppin, James Wiseman and Caleb Martin
Your best PrizePicks and Underdog choices on MLB slate
We’re in the final week of the season and need to take advantage of every opportunity we have left. There is a beautiful slate of games for us to choose from Tuesday. The Astros and Mariners will battle late at night for their playoff lives. We also have a day-night doubleheader between the Dodgers and Rockies at Coors Field. There are plenty of options on PrizePicks and Underdog, but I’ve narrowed down the best picks to make here.
Backing the Dodgers is fun and easy to do confidently, especially against a starting pitcher like Chase Anderson. The 35-year-old veteran has struggled in his career against the guys the Dodgers will have in their lineup in the first game of Tuesday’s doubleheader.
Oddly enough, he has pitched better at Coors Field this season, but guys like Mookie, Freeman, and J.D. Martinez have raked at Coors. Betts is 11 for 27 at Coors this season with 7 RBIs, 7 runs, and 5 extra-base hits.
Did I mention the Rockies bullpen has the highest ERA in baseball? Well, they do at 5.33! With a doubleheader, they will likely use plenty of arms in their pen. J.D. was just named NL Player of the Week after going 11 for 24 with 5 home runs, 3 doubles, 12 RBIs, and a 1.708 OPS. He’s 4 for 13 in his career with a HR. against the Rockies projected starter Chase Anderson. He’s crushed the ball at Coors this season, going 7 for 15 with 3 homers.
The Phillies lineup has been on fire at home. This is an obvious spot to attack today. Philadelphia will face the Pirates and starting pitcher Mitch Keller. Keller has struggled in two of his last road starts. On the season, his ERA jumps to 5.49 on the road as opposed to 2.90 ERA at home. Harper has mashed at Citizens Bank with a .348 B.A., 1.057 OPS. He’s 4 for 9 in his career versus Keller with 2 doubles. He has topped 7.5 fantasy score in 8 of his last 11 home games.
The young lefty Steele has had an excellent 2023 season. He pushed for the NL Cy Young, but it has slipped away from him over his last two starts. He’s gone back-to-back starts, allowing 6 Earned. He has allowed at least 6 hits in 11 of 13 starts since the All-Star break. In his lone start this season against the Braves, he allowed 8 hits. Atlanta has the second-highest B.A. at home this season (.279) and the best B.A. versus left-handed pitching (.288). We can trust the Braves.
Albies has mashed lefties this season. He has a .384 batting average against left-handed pitching, and over the last week, he’s batting .407 with a 1.063 OPS. He is 2 for 3 in his career against Steele. Albies has topped this number in 9 of his last 11 games!
The rookie is tied with the third-most runs and sixth in total bases over the last month and has scored at least one run in 11 of his last 16 home games. He has one at-bat in his career against Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray with a walk. Henderson . Gray has been tough of late, but he has allowed at least 3 runs in 5 of his last 8 starts, and when he’s out of the game, the Nationals bullpen owns the 5th-highest ERA (5.01).
Terrell looks at the top choices for the Week 4 lines
“Last week I took an L, but this week I bounce back” – Detroit Lions (Week 3, 2023)
My Week 3 article went 2-1 as the Lions handled business against the Falcons 20-6. The Patriots and the Jets cleared our under-37 bet as they combined for 25 total points. However, I deserved the lone loss by fading Patrick Mahomes. I knew I would regret it and I did as the Bears did not even show up in Arrowhead
Let’s evaluate a few lines for Week 4, shall we?
Well, well, well — we have another ‘Close Your Eyes Special’! Sam Howell had by far his worst game as starting quarterback of the Commanders in Week 3, throwing four (ugly) interceptions as the Buffalo Bills won 37-3.
The Commanders were catching 5.5 points at kickoff meaning they underperformed the spread by 21+ points. Now they are 8.5-point underdogs to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Aside from the ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ being 2-0 SU/ATS to start the season, there are a couple of reasons to like the Commanders. Starting at the top, Coach Ron Rivera is 55-42-2 (56.7%) as an underdog in his career — 33-25-1 on the road (56.9%). Digging deeper, Rivera is 15-9-1 when his team is an underdog of seven or more points.
The Commanders did get a win outright on the road versus this Eagles team in 2022. They controlled time of possession and created a lot of turnovers, and I think that can still be a good recipe for success this week. While the jury is still out on Howell, it will be hard to replicate the bad game he had against Buffalo.
I’m adding another divisional under this week. And once again, I have the lowest total on the board. This series has gone under in four of the last five of their regular-season matchups. The Saints have gone under in all three of their games this season. TB is 2-1 to the under.
The Bucs turned the ball over twice versus the Eagles on Monday after not having a single turnover in their first two games. After a really good outing versus the Chicago Bears, this Bucs offense looked to revert to where expectations were at the beginning of the season as they only could produce 174 yards of offense.
The Saints’ defense hasn’t given up more than 18 points. Derek Carr went down versus the Green Bay Packers with a shoulder injury and is expected to miss this game. Jameis Winston came in and looked okay, but the offense was shut out in the fourth quarter as they blew a 17-0 lead. I do like Winston to get the win in a revenge game at home, but I could not resist the total. I expect to see something similar to the Patriots/Jets from last week.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals got the monkey off their back with their first win of the season on Monday Night Football versus the Los Angeles Rams. But it was visibly apparent that Burrow was still bothered by that calf injury he suffered in training camp.
The Titans, on the other hand, were just a half a point away from being a ‘close your eyes special’ this week. They got handed by the Cleveland Browns 27-3. The Browns defense was dominate giving up only 94 yards of offense.
The Titans problem is that Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz believes his DBs are so good, he might stack the box versus Derrick Henry and dared Ryan Tannehill to beat him. Unfortunately, the Bengals do not have that luxury, so I expect to see a more effective Henry.
The Titans' defense is still legit as well. Despite the loss they added five more sacks to their season total. With Burrow being compromised, I expect to see a better defensive effort from the Titans and the offense to do what they do best—run Henry. Mike Vrabel is 10-6 ATS as a home dog in his career, look for the Titans to win outright.
Simon goes through the waiver wire for Week 4
It’s a mad rush on the waiver wire for rookie running back De’Von Achane this week after his 51.3-point fantasy performance in Week 3. While Achane highlights this week’s waiver wire group, he’s not the only player worth adding. Let’s navigate who should make the cut and who should be left on the wire for your leaguemates.
I’ll be adding something new in this week’s column called “Luxury Adds.” These players are for fantasy managers who find themselves with an extra bench slot. You likely won’t want to start these players right away, for a multitude of different reasons, but they have some sort of upside that makes them worth holding on your team before their value (potentially) skyrockets.
Quentin Johnston (51% Rostered), Joshua Palmer (5% Rostered)
While Mike Williams has been second fiddle to Keenan Allen, there has been plenty to go around in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s Charger offense. Quentin Johnston is the preferred pickup, if only because Joshua Palmer is who Joshua Palmer is. The 60+ yards and a scare is Palmer’s ceiling, and Williams being out for the season doesn’t do much to his role.
Johnston profiles as the big bodied wide receiver to step into the Williams role. We haven’t seen the rookie do much with his limited opportunities, but rookie wide receivers, especially ones behind such established veterans as Allen and Williams, can require something external (like an injury) to present an opportunity.
Tank Dell (48% Rostered)
The Texans rookie is back in the column after his best fantasy outing coming off a week where rookie QB CJ Stroud was in an “arm management plan.” Even with the pass volume dropping significantly in Week 3 – from 47 attempts in Week 2 to 30 in Week 3 – Dell still had five receptions for 145 yards and a touchdown on seven targets.
This makes two games in a row where Dell has out-targeted all other Texan receivers. He’s establishing himself as the preferred target for a young quarterback in the midst of a breakout rookie campaign. Add Dell now or your league mates surely will.
Adam Thielen (58% Rostered)
After a dismal Week 1, Thielen has found himself a role in this Panthers’ offense. Thielen has seen 14 and nine9 targets in his last two games respectively and has turned it into fantasy production, finishing as the PPR WR3 in Week 3. While I don’t have much confidence in an aging Thielen, I also don’t have much confidence in Terrace Marshall, Jonathan Mingo, or Laviska Shenault.
If Thielen can threaten double-digit targets in a week, he’s worth picking up. Don’t expect what we saw from him in Week 3, but WR3 numbers aren’t out of the question.
Zay Jones (52% Rostered)
After missing Week 3 with an injury, Jones returns to the column. While Christian Kirk has looked great in his absence, let’s not forget what this depth chart looked like throughout preseason and Week 1. Jones looked like a focal point in preseason and out snapped Kirk in Week 1. While that is a limited sample size, it’s significant enough to warrant adding Jones before he’s back from injury.
Luxury Adds
De’Von Achane (46% Rostered)
We’re three weeks into the season and Achane is the RB7 after only scoring a combined 1.9 fantasy points in the first two weeks. There are rookie breakouts and then there’s what we watched happen this weekend.
Achane turned 18 carries into 203 rushing yards and looked explosive. He also turned four targets into four receptions for 30 yards. That alone would have been a great breakout for Achane, but he also scored four touchdowns – two through the air and two on the ground.
It’s not often a player this explosive, with this much opportunity, on an offense this good is sitting on the waiver wire. Blow your FAAB and add Achane now. While we can’t call for 50-point performances every week (or anywhere close), the talent and opportunity line up perfectly for a great fantasy season.
Roschon Johnson (59% Rostered)
Roschon is back in the column and that’s because he’s good and the Bears have been such a dumpster fire that it’s gone unnoticed by quite a few. Roschon’s Week 3 was uninspiring, but he also faced a negative game script after going down big early to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Bears are struggling, and Johnson has been one of the few bright spots. I don’t expect him to be handed the job from Khalil Herbert, but as the season progresses Johnson should take over as the primary back. He’s the better playmaker and the Bears desperately need playmakers.
Ezekiel Elliot (51% Rostered)
Zeke’s demise was greatly exaggerated. For all of the Tony Pollard truthers out there dancing on the grave of Zeke’s fantasy value after Week 2, it’s time to reevaluate. While Rhamondre will be the primary back for the Steelers, Zeke carried the ball 16 times against the Jets this weekend and was more efficient with his carries than Stevenson.
This will be a split backfield but Zeke still has some juice left and the Patriots look willing to give him the touches.
Luxury Adds
Jake Ferguson (34% Rostered)
Cowboys Nation is in shambles after their shocking loss to the “Tanking for Caleb” Cardinals. On the bright side, Cowboys fans should be excited about the emergence of second-year TE Jake Ferguson establishing rapport with Dak Prescott.
Ferguson has seen 7 targets in two of three games this season. At a position as volatile as tight end, that volume is enough to make Ferguson startable most weeks. But maybe not this week, however – he’s got a killer matchup against a Patriots team that has been shutting down TEs.
Luke Musgrave (24% Rostered)
After a promising start for a rookie tight end through the first two weeks, we saw it come together a bit more for Ferguson on Sunday. Musgrave hauled in 6 of his 8 targets for 49 yards, good for 10.90 PPR fantasy points.
After being the lead target in week 3 for Jordan Love, Musgrave appears to be establishing himself as a weekly starter at the position. It will likely take more time for Musgrave and Love to further develop that connection we’re seeing, but this much early production from a rookie tight end is a great sign.
Luxury Adds
He did it again, even with a so-called “arm management plan,” and is looking like the best rookie QB thus far. With Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Robert Woods all showing up as weapons for Stroud, expect the 20-plus point performances to continue.
High passing volume, expected negative game scripts, and all the talent in the world. What more do you want?
Russell Wilson (52% Rostered)
While the Broncos may be even worse under Sean Payton than they were with Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson has quietly put together a solid first three weeks.
This offense will likely continue to struggle, but Wilson has put up back-to-back 300-yard performances. If you’re looking for a fill-in QB for Week 4, Wilson is currently a top 10 QB likely sitting on your waiver wire.
Luxury Adds
Jameis Winston (2% Rostered)
Great advice to help you build out your Tuesday lineups
With 16 games on tap for Tuesday evening, it’ll be a busy one for fantasy managers. However, there are plenty of attractive spots for both pitchers and hitters, which creates some stacking opportunities to build around.
There aren’t a ton of trouble spots, with the best chance for a possible early postponement being in Chicago where rain could trigger a late start. They’ll try to get it in, but the teams could opt for a doubleheader Wednesday or Thursday.
Luis Robert Jr., White Sox OF (knee)
Robert Jr. is day-to-day heading into Tuesday’s series opener against the Diamondbacks after being lifted from Sunday's series finale against the Red Sox with left knee soreness. There’s a chance he gets another night off with precipitation in the forecast on Tuesday night.
Bo Naylor, Guardians C (thumb)
Naylor sat out a pair of contests over the weekend after being lifted from Friday's contest against the Orioles with a right thumb contusion.
Michael Brantley, Astros OF (shoulder)
Brantley has been held out of Houston’s lineup for seven consecutive games due to shoulder soreness.
Yandy Díaz, Rays 1B/3B (hamstring)
Díaz is day-to-day entering Tuesday’s series opener at Fenway Park against the Red Sox after being removed from Sunday's series finale against the Blue Jays with right hamstring tightness.
Randy Arozarena, Rays OF (quad)
Arozarena sat out a pair of contests over the weekend following an early exit from Friday's game due to right quad tightness. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day entering Tuesday’s series opener against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks 2B/OF (illness)
Marte sat out Monday's series finale in New York after being scratched from Sunday's lineup due to illness. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day heading into Tuesday's series opener against the White Sox.
Luis Arraez, Marlins 2B (ankle)
Arraez sat out Sunday's series finale against the Brewers following an early exit from Saturday's contest after twisting his left ankle while going down the dugout steps at the conclusion of the eighth inning. There should be some clarity on his status heading into Tuesday's series opener against the Mets, but fantasy managers shouldn’t count on him being ready to return.
Jake Burger, Marlins 3B (quad)
Burger was removed from the sixth inning of Sunday’s series finale against the Mets due to right quad tightness, which has been a lingering issue for him over the past few days. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day for now.
Brandon Nimmo, Mets OF (leg)
Nimmo sat out Sunday's game with lingering right leg soreness, but is expected to be ready for Tuesday's series opener against the Marlins.
Francisco Alvarez (finger)
X-rays came back negative after Alvarez made an early exit from Sunday’s series finale against the Phillies with a left middle finger contusion.
With Justin Steele scuffling of late and other high-priced options like George Kirby and Bobby Miller facing a challenging opposing lineup and a daunting ballpark, respectively, Kevin Gausman and Zach Eflin are the consensus top starting pitching options Tuesday.
Gausman, who has two double-digit strikeout performances in two of his last three outings, faces a rebuilding Yankees’ lineup comprised of unproven rookies. It’s the type of favorable matchup that should enable him to pile up a prodigious strikeout total. Meanwhile, Eflin has been one of MLB's most consistent pitchers in his Rays debut, compiling a career-best 3.44 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 182/24 K/BB ratio across 172 2/3 innings (30 starts). He'll square off against a Red Sox' lineup that ranks 27th with a calamitous .684 OPS in September.
Fantasy managers searching for an alternative in the upper-echelon section of the starting pitcher price range should consider Bailey Ober almost entirely because of an extremely tasty home matchup against the Athletics. The 28-year-old right-hander is unlikely to work too deep into the contest, but he's allowed two earned runs or fewer in back-to-back starts since September 15. At this juncture it’s difficult to recommend Giants top prospect Kyle Harrison, especially given his recent inability to keep the ball in the yard, but he possesses arguably the highest strikeout potential of any pitcher on this slate.
Paul Blackburn, Athletics RHP, vs. Twins: $6,700
Typically, we try to target starting pitchers against the Athletics in this space, but Blackburn is one of the more appealing under-the-radar options Tuesday since there isn’t much risk of a blow-up. The 29-year-old righty has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his 12 starts since the All-Star break back in mid-July. With a playoff spot already locked up, there's a chance most of Minnesota's regulars get the night off -- especially with some potential rain in the forecast -- to ensure they're healthy and ready to go next week.
Dodgers vs. Rockies (TBD)
One of the best offenses at Coors Field is an appealing stacking proposition, so load up on Los Angeles sluggers. The Rockies haven’t revealed their pitching plan for Tuesday’s twin bill yet, so it be a bullpen game in the nightcap. Regardless of who Colorado throws, there’s a strong likelihood the Dodgers do serious damage.
Rangers vs. Angels (LHP Reid Detmers)
Winners of six consecutive games, the Rangers will square off against Angels southpaw Reid Detmers. The 24-year-old southpaw has pitched extremely well of late, but Texas has plenty of dangerous right-handed bats. As they showed Monday, the Rangers are also capable of doing serious damage against Los Angeles’ relievers as well.
Early September mock draft with preseason looming
Welcome to my first column for Sportstopia! To say I’m excited is an understatement. We will bring you the best fantasy hoops coverage in the industry with a star-studded ensemble of contributors. If you’re not already familiar with my work, this season marks (roughly) my 24th year of covering fantasy hoops. I spent most of my career at Rotoworld and am currently writing for ESPN and RotoWire. Follow me on Twitter at @Docktora.
This early September NBA mock draft is a Yahoo! eight-category league that was hosted by Rotowire and packed full of industry guys and a bunch of Rotowire analysts. And here’s how it all went down with some of my thoughts after each round. I had the second pick, obviously.
There are no turnovers to worry about in this one and I still think Luka will eventually become a better free throw shooter, but I also might be crazy. Honestly, I would have been thrilled to come away from this one with Jokic, Luka, Haliburton or SGA. It’s also interesting to see defensive stud Jaren Jackson Jr. climb into the first round, along with stalwart Edwards.
I was hoping to come out of Rounds 2 and 3 with some more of ‘my guys’ and I did just that, grabbing Wembanyama near the end of Round 2. I know there’s some risk involved, and I am a little concerned about how much the Spurs may rest him, but I believe the hype and wanted to get him.
Round 2 is a bit of a reach but I also wasn’t sure he’d be there three picks later. However, given that I wouldn’t pick again until the 47th pick after Round 3, he was coming off the board for me in Round 3 if I decided to grab someone else first.
I’m also a big Mikal Bridges supporter and you’re going to have to pay for him if you want him. Giannis will nearly assure his manager a ‘1’ in free throw percentage, which is why he fell to Round 2 in this Roto format.
Yes, Holmgren is another one of my guys and I clearly reached for him, especially when you consider his current ADP is closer to 40 than 25. Big men coming off of serious foot problems are traditionally a problem in the NBA, but my guess is Holmgren is going to be good to go and better than people are expecting. But targeting him in the fourth or fifth round makes more sense than where I took him.
It’s obviously will take an early pick to get Walker, but I believe the hype on him, too. I will not be drafting Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, LeBron James or Paul George due to age and injury histories. At least not in Round 3.
With Holmgren added to the OKC offense and SGA and Giddey both looking to take another step forward, my guy Jalen Williams is a bit risky. But he’s so talented, he can co-exist with his teammates. The Thunder will take the kid gloves off this season and the sky’s the limit. And Williams is sure to play a big role for OKC even if he is playing second fiddle to SGA, Giddey and Holmgren. Stud point guards aplenty in Round 4 with Garland, Murray, Fox and Murray all going off the board. I particularly like Murray here.
After being a little early on Sengun over the last two seasons, Year 3 should be a charm. He’s very good and I fully expect him to break out. My center corral is full of young studs and if they all pan out, this team is going to rack up serious big-man stats. I would not mess with a guy like Ingram here, as he hasn’t played in more than 62 games in any of his last six seasons.
I just can’t quit MPJ although it feels much better to get him at the end of Round 6 than it does taking him any earlier than that. He made it through a career-high 62 games last season and still has enough upside that he could be a pleasant surprise. I’m not messing with Zion Williamson and still think he’s going to be a bust. Believe it or not, he’s entering Year 5 and he’s played a grand total of 114 games out of a max 328 regular-season games.
Tyus Jones will be the point guard in Washington and could have a really good season. I’m not sure how he’ll mesh with Jordan Poole, who will be shooting the ball A LOT, but Jones should be a fun fantasy player to manage. Ja Morant fell to Round 7 due to his 25-game suspension and if you have the patience to wait on him, could be a huge difference maker in the second half of the season. His fantasy rankings haven’t been great throughout his career but he’s still a potential monster.
I was pleased to get Melton this late as he’s got one of the more fantasy-friendly games. Add in the mystery surrounding James Harden’s future in Philly and Melton should be in store for a very good fantasy season. In fact, this is one of my favorite picks in this draft even though a lot of people don’t even know who he is. Steals, threes, rebounds, assists, some blocks and low turnovers should all be fun.
Markelle Fultz was intriguing here and it will be interesting to see if he can build on last season’s success. I’d be a lot more excited about him if he didn’t have to deal with teammates like Cole Anthony, Anthony Black and Jalen Suggs. They only play with one basketball, unfortunately.
Tre Jones, along with Tyus Jones, is one of my favorite cheap point guards. He should be running the offense and will be the guy feeding Wemby and Keldon Johnson early and often. Jones doubled his scoring and assists from the previous season last year, played in 68 games and should have a clear path to 30 minutes a game this year. He also doesn’t turn the ball over and is a good shooter from everywhere but does lack a quality 3-point shot. Maybe he’ll shoot more of them this season.
I like the John Collins pick here in Round 9. He’s getting a much-needed fresh start in Utah and while he’ll have to deal with guys like Kessler and Lauri Markkanen, I have a gut feeling that a bounce-back season is coming.
I was pleased to get Bruce Brown late in Round 10 after the Pacers paid him all that money this summer. He’s a savvy veteran who could be a glue guy on both ends of the court for Indy and I’m still not convinced he’s going to come off the bench. Brown’s another guy who does a little bit of everything, doesn’t turn the ball over and could take a step forward for his new team. He also played in 80 games last season. I really didn’t love anyone else taken in this round although it will be interesting to see if McDaniels can take a step forward for the Wolves this season.
I was pleased to see Ben Simmons go just before my pick, because I might have been tempted to take him, against my better judgment. I have a mini goal of not drafting Simmons this season and so far, I’m 1-for-1 in that category. Quickley nearly won Sixth Man of the Year last season and should be even more confident this time around. Ausar Thompson went before his brother (Amen Thompson) in this early mock, but I doubt that happens very often once draft season is officially here. Is RJ Barrett a good player? I still haven’t decided.
I finished things off with Obi Toppin and his new role in Indiana. I have no idea if he will blow up or not, but he’ll at least be fun to watch running the court with Haliburton and the Pacers. Amen Thompson went in this round, but he’ll be going earlier this fall after his big Summer League. Keep an eye on Dennis Schroder, who may be running the offense all season in Toronto with Fred VanVleet in Houston. Lastly, Kevin Porter Jr. has run into some disturbing legal troubles and may not even play this season.
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Learn the Contrarian Edge Optimizer's true power
An optimizer is a powerful tool to harness in DFS play, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. Like any other tool, one must first learn how to wield an optimizer before its true power can be realized.
That is exactly what we will look to sort through in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Contrarian Edge Optimizer use at Fantasy Sports Logic for the Monday slates each week of the 2023 season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the newest, and most dynamic, optimizer in the industry.
Most of the articles in this series will cover Showdown slates while we explore Monday Night Football slates. This week, however, we have a Monday Night Football doubleheader on the docket – Eagles at Buccaneers and Rams at Bengals – that will allow us to explore more of the full range of tools at our disposal through the Contrarian Edge Optimizer.
Open the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, select the slate for which you want to build, and run the optimizer. Don’t touch a single thing. Now analyze the rosters that are provided. The first roster that is generated through the blended methodologies for the Monday slate includes Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Joe Mixon, Chris Godwin, Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Evans, Cade Otton, Puka Nacua, and the Bengals defense.
This practice will allow you to get a feel for the various projections from around the industry in addition to seeing how those pieces fit together optimally on a single roster.
In other words, simply running the optimizer without manipulating inputs gives insight into expected field tendencies, how salaries fit together on a roster, and the strongest median projection for a give slate.
Now, remove Joe Burrow from the player pool, apply a 20 percent decrease to Bengals skill position players, add Jake Browning to the player pool, and run it again. You can now visualize how the status of Joe Burrow might influence the median outcomes from the slate ahead.
You can even go as far as excluding the Bengals entirely, providing a boost to the Rams defense, and running it again. That returns a roster of Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, Mike Evans, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Cade Otton, Chris Godwin, and the Eagles defense. As you can see, the return is vastly different than the original roster returned.
There are certain aspects of profitable DFS play that professionals utilize at a higher rate than the field. The reasons for these practices have to do with historical hit rates versus utilization rate from the field.
A few examples of these practices include team over-stacks, QB-RB-TE correlations, and onslaught rosters (rosters with three to four players from one roster and zero or one from the opposing side).
These practices build inherent leverage in rosters as they historically hit at a rate higher than they are utilized by the field.
• Over 70 percent of the optimal rosters over the previous three seasons did not include a correlated bring-back.
• 22 percent of the optimal rosters over the previous three seasons included a QB-TE correlation.
• 18 percent of the optimal rosters over the previous three seasons included the primary stack’s running back.
And yet, the field is not utilizing these practices at those historical hit rates.
To influence the algorithm in those ways, select “Pro Options,” toggle “Auto Team Stacking Bonus” and “By Position,” bump “QB-TE,” “QB-WR,” and “QB-RB,” and generate lineups. You’ll see the algorithm now account for heavier correlation amongst quarterbacks, tight ends, wide receivers, and their running backs, which provides the leverage we are looking for through these DFS Theory methodologies.
The algorithm now returns Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Tyler Higbee rosters. As you can see, all the previously mentioned DFS Theory practices are being accounted for by the Contrarian Edge Optimizer.
Feeling higher or lower about a player than the field and want to overweight or exclude them from your pool? Simply select the “lock” button or “exclude” (red circle with line through) button next to a player’s name and run the optimizer again.
As an example, in the Sunday Night Football game, the Pittsburgh Steelers had only four healthy wide receivers and it was clear that Allen Robinson would be largely confined to slot snaps, leaving Calvin Austin to play most of the offensive snaps on the perimeter alongside George Pickens.
I locked Austin into every roster and ran the optimizer. Similarly, amidst poor efficiency and growing concerns of Jaylen Warren’s increased involvement, I excluded Najee Harris from my player pool.
As you can see, the Contrarian Edge Optimizer is an invaluable tool to building bulk rosters for DFS play. To best harness its abilities, we must first have a working knowledge of the varying options to utilize as inputs in addition to a theoretical and conceptual working knowledge of the game of NFL DFS. This article series will attempt to further our understanding in both those areas throughout the season.
The players who starred and sputtered in Week 3
If you’re reading this, I can only assume you’re a Swiftie and you want to see how many Taylor Swift lyrical puns I can plug into my NFL recap article. Well, I’m telling you right now you need to calm down because It’s karma that I didn’t Google anything about Taylor Swift for this article.
All I did was look at my underperforming fantasy teams, shake it off, identified my anti-hero, and realized I now have bad blood with players like Joshua Kelley.
And now, something y’all know all too well, the weekly recap!
Is 10 touchdowns a lot? I think 10 touchdowns is a lot of touchdowns but let me confirm. They were 3 points shy of the all-time NFL record for points in a game and scored the most points in a game since 1966. I guess 10 touchdowns is pretty good.
We wrote about Raheem Mostert (MustStart) last week, and he didn’t disappoint -- 142 total yards and four touchdowns will make you look like a genius. But he was overshadowed by rookie running mate De’Von Achane, who racked up 203 on the ground and another 30 through the air on his way to his own four touchdowns.
The offense can handle both players and that’s obvious, so feel free to throw some trades out there. Oh, by the way, Tua Tagovailoa passed for 309 and four touchdowns with Tyreek Hill adding in 157 yards and a touchdown. They didn’t even have Jaylen Waddle! Invest in this offense and feel good about it going forward.
Keenan Allen made our recap last week and he kept rolling. Maybe he was mad we called him old? 18 grabs on 20 targets and he even chipped in a trick play passing touchdown to Mike Williams.
The offense was looking like it finally figured it out under new OC Kellen Moore, but now Williams looks like he’s lost for the season. Justin Herbert and Allen should continue to feast, but if you need another option in the offense, maybe look to add Quentin Johnston or Joshua Palmer.
Davante Adams is the NFL equipment to the Ol’ Reliable SpongeBob meme. Jimmy G went to him early and often Sunday night and it was the performance we’re used to from one of the NFL’s best. We should see it all season for a Vegas team that isn’t replicating Josh Jacobs’ success last year in the ground game and a leaky defense.
Here’s a non-fantasy tip if you’re a gambler: some books offer “player to catch a pass on this drive” props during primetime games. Some offered Adams at plus money. Some of them got lit up. Adams plays his old team Green Bay in week 5 on Monday Night Football. Keep an eye on it.
I wrote off Adam Thielen. He disappointed for the Viking last year and went to a rebuilding Carolina Panthers team. He basically pulled an Undertaker gif in real life this weekend with 11 grabs for 145 yards and a touchdown. Will it continue? I think it would be smart to keep the same formula when Bryce Young returns from injury, but in the meantime, his connection with Andy Dalton is clear.
Seattle turned to Kenneth Walker III when they needed him. He got the carries around the goal line and scored 2 touchdowns. It’s a good sign for those worried about Zach Charbonnet grabbing work from him especially where it counts. Charbonnet carried it nine times to K9’s 18, but it looks like Walker will be the guy the Seahawks (and fantasy owners) turn to when they need it most.
Nico Collins walked last week so Tank Dell could run. Or Collins ran last week so Dell could also run, but faster? I haven’t worked out the exact details yet but there’s something there, just like there’s something there for a surprising Texans passing attack. It’ll be tough to decide who will be the alpha between Collins and Dell each week, but both will have their chances. That also means C.J. Stroud might be worth a look in your DFS lineups or, at the very least, he’ll be an enticing option in some of your season long matchups.
Zack Moss? Zack Moss. That’s two weeks in a row where he’s looked good for the Colts -- 122 yards on the ground and a receiving touchdown has me intrigued. Mostly because it looks like he can chip in no matter who is at quarterback.
Lamar Jackson has been a stud, that’s not news. But the Ravens are so banged up they need him to be the MVP. It’s probably not the strategy they hoped for, but hero ball Lamar isn’t the worst strategy in the world. It might be tough to find passing touchdowns some weeks, but his legs will keep Baltimore, and fantasy owners, in the game weekly.
Sam LaPorta is putting together a historic season so far -- 18 catches through three games, the most ever for a rookie tight end. Detroit believes in him as their second option in the offense. LaPorta is a weekly plug and play TE1.
The Browns didn’t get many people excited through two weeks. A Week 1 slugfest in the rain followed by a devastating injury to Nick Chubb had me questioning what team would come out of Cleveland.
Deshaun Watson had to step up sans Chubb, and he did this week, throwing for 289 yards and two touchdowns while clicking with Amari Cooper (116 and 1 touchdown). It had me thinking about the Texans Deshaun from a few years ago.
The caution is Jerome Ford, who turned in only 18 yards on the ground and 33 through the air. The two touchdowns he had looked good, but I’m not sold on him being the replacement for Chubb.
It's dud time, and Broncos country, let’s ride! Losing by 50 to the Dolphins is bad, and I’m sorry if you had the Broncos defense for some reason. I will say Russell Wilson hasn’t looked bad the past two weeks with over 300 yards each game while his defense was getting torched. The rushing offense has also been a dud. Sean Payton’s Mile High Era isn’t going as planned so far.
The Jets running back situation is a nightmare. The Jets are pretty much a nightmare. The Aaron Rodgers injury situation is dragging the team down with an anchor by the name of Zach Wilson. I’m not confident in any Jet in my lineup.
Daniel Jones caps things off. A 5-point fantasy game, a 35-point fantasy game, a 5-point fantasy game. That’s the Daniel Jones experience, or more so the Giants experience. Yes, two of those games were against formidable defenses in Dallas and San Francisco, but even the rushing wasn’t there.
Which Jones are you going to get weekly? Who knows! Will it be fun? It won’t! The Seahawks are next so hope for the best.
Check out the top PrizePicks and Underdog choices
With only four games on tap, Monday’s slate is one of the smallest of the entire marathon baseball season. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t some interesting player prop bets out there with several aces toeing the rubber for potentially the final time in the regular season.
The NL Cy Young Award front-runner faces a struggling Giants’ lineup in his penultimate start of the season. The 30-year-old southpaw has notched at least eight strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts since July 30 and is facing a San Francisco lineup that lacks a ton of right-handed pop besides Wilmer Flores.
Castillo faced the Astros on May 5 and July 7, with only eight punch outs in 14 innings. The 30-year-old right-hander has eclipsed eight strikeouts in three consecutive outings and is making arguably his most important start of the season. But Houston's lineup is stellar against right-handed pitching and is one of the least strikeout-prone units in baseball. Castillo likley will pitch well, but his track record tells us he won't miss a ton of bats in this matchup.
Verlander faces the Mariners for the first time this season as the clubs continue to jostle for a postseason berth. The 40-year-old right-hander has eclipsed seven strikeouts in just four of nine outings since returning to Houston at the trade deadline, but Seattle has the second-most Ks in MLB. Verlander’s ability to consistently work deep into games, combined with the Mariners’ strikeout propensity, gives him a real shot at reaching this lofty number.
The Giants are technically still alive in the Wild Card picture, but they’ll need Webb to come through against the Padres. San Diego’s star-studded lineup doesn’t strike out a ton, and Webb isn’t known for missing a ton of bats, but he’s certainly capable of reaching at least five in his most important outing of the year.
Sandoval has been one of the unluckiest pitchers from a run-prevention standpoint and faces a scary Rangers lineup. The 26-year-old southpaw has given up at least five runs in three of his last four outings and will contend with several challenging right-handed sluggers, including Marcus Semien, Adolis García, Josh Jung and Mitch Garver. It's an extremely tough matchup, especially with Texas desperately needing a W to maintain their AL West lead, so fantasy managers should expect them to come out and do some damage.
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