The ‘close your eyes special’ saved our day in Week 2 -- the Seahawks winning outright as +5.5 underdogs in overtime. However, I’m kicking myself for not adding the Steelers on Monday Night Football.
In any case, the ‘close your eyes special’ moves to 2-0 ATS and SU on the season. Hope you sprinkled on the money line!
Unfortunately, that was the lone bright spot. The Green Bay Packers shifted to +1.5 underdogs after injury news. They covered the +1.5, but it was -1.5 when I handicapped it for the article. And the New York Jets did not stand a chance at all. Loss.
Let’s evaluate a few lines for Week 3 of the NFL.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs Atlanta Falcons
Shop around because there are a couple of Lions -3 out there. This line opened on the lookahead Lions -5, but the public came down heavy on the Falcons after their comeback win versus the Packers. This could be optimism on the Falcons or a fade of the Lions who just lost to the Seahawks at home (we called it!).
- WR Rankings: Aerial Show in Minneapolis
- RB Rankings: Bell Cow Rings Loud in DC
- QB Rankings: Make Room for the Rookie
- TE Rankings: YAC Attack in Detroit
- King Henry A Great Pick 'Em Play in Week 3
- Who Will Be This Week's Daniel Jones?
- Amazing How Low-Priced These Guys Are
- Doubt Patrick -- Just a Little Bit
- Waiver Wire Picture Is Getting Clearer
But I want to come back to the Lions this week. They will be without star safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who might be out for the season with a torn pec. I do not have much faith in the Lions defense, and the way to attack them is through the air. Seattle QB Geno Smith finished 32 for 41 for 328 yards and two touchdowns.
While he is still young, I am not yet a believer in Falcons QB Desmond Ridder. Atlanta relies heavily on running the ball — typical for head coach Arthur Smith. However, the Lions are allowing the seventh fewest rushing yards to running backs. Expect the Lions defense to force Ridder to try and beat them.
Jared Goff and company bounce back at home.
Chicago Bears (+12.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
I might regret this very early in this game. KC QB Patrick Mahomes has one of the best win percentages since entering the league, and Chicago QB Justin Fields has one of the worst. However, we just need the Bears to not get destroyed.
How do you win games -- or cover -- vs the Chiefs? Run the ball effectively and control time of possession. Luckily, this might be the only good thing that the Bears do on offense. Fields is a gifted runner, and Chicago has shown a commitment to the rush. They didn’t in Week 2, but I expect them to add emphasis to it this week.
This is really just a fade of Mahomes and Andy Reid as heavy favorites. Mahomes is 7-13-1 as a double-digit favorite in his career, and Reid is 15-22-1. These Chiefs are still figuring things out with this new roster, so the growing pains will continue. After Week 2, this line jumped from Chiefs -9 to Chiefs -12.5.
Chiefs win comfortably but the Bears backdoor this number.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets U: 37
Is this the regular season or the preseason? The O/U of 37 easily clears as our lowest total on the board, so of course I’m going under. The under has cashed in three of the last five matchups between these two teams.
The Jets are struggling to readjust their offense to Zach Wilson. Nathaniel Hackett was brought in mostly because of his relationship with Aaron Rodgers and the familiarity with the offense.
Wilson is still learning this offense. The Jets’ struggles will continue operating behind a rough offensive line that has yet to afford any of their quarterbacks time to throw.
The Patriots have looked better offensively this year, maybe because now they have a real offensive coordinator. But things won’t come easy against this Jets defense. They are stacked at every position and profile to be one of the best defenses in the league.
Last week was rough because the offense put them in terrible situations, but I think back at home the offense can be competent enough to punt instead of turning the ball over and allow the defense room to work.
The under is my favorite play in this one and sharps agree as it has already moved from 38.5 to 37.
.svg){kind=icon}
.svg){kind=icon}