“Last week I took an L, but this week I bounce back” – Detroit Lions (Week 3, 2023)
My Week 3 article went 2-1 as the Lions handled business against the Falcons 20-6. The Patriots and the Jets cleared our under-37 bet as they combined for 25 total points. However, I deserved the lone loss by fading Patrick Mahomes. I knew I would regret it and I did as the Bears did not even show up in Arrowhead
Let’s evaluate a few lines for Week 4, shall we?
Washington Commanders (+8.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Well, well, well — we have another ‘Close Your Eyes Special’! Sam Howell had by far his worst game as starting quarterback of the Commanders in Week 3, throwing four (ugly) interceptions as the Buffalo Bills won 37-3.
The Commanders were catching 5.5 points at kickoff meaning they underperformed the spread by 21+ points. Now they are 8.5-point underdogs to the Philadelphia Eagles.
- Cody's Rankings: WR | RB | QB | TE-K-Def.
- Go with These TEs in Week 4 Pick 'Ems
- Week 4 Stacks: Go Chalk, Go Contrarian
- Bargain Bin: Burrow Is Ready to Show He's Back
- Vegas Lines: In Ron You Should Trust
Aside from the ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ being 2-0 SU/ATS to start the season, there are a couple of reasons to like the Commanders. Starting at the top, Coach Ron Rivera is 55-42-2 (56.7%) as an underdog in his career — 33-25-1 on the road (56.9%). Digging deeper, Rivera is 15-9-1 when his team is an underdog of seven or more points.
The Commanders did get a win outright on the road versus this Eagles team in 2022. They controlled time of possession and created a lot of turnovers, and I think that can still be a good recipe for success this week. While the jury is still out on Howell, it will be hard to replicate the bad game he had against Buffalo.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints T: U39.5
I’m adding another divisional under this week. And once again, I have the lowest total on the board. This series has gone under in four of the last five of their regular-season matchups. The Saints have gone under in all three of their games this season. TB is 2-1 to the under.
The Bucs turned the ball over twice versus the Eagles on Monday after not having a single turnover in their first two games. After a really good outing versus the Chicago Bears, this Bucs offense looked to revert to where expectations were at the beginning of the season as they only could produce 174 yards of offense.
The Saints’ defense hasn’t given up more than 18 points. Derek Carr went down versus the Green Bay Packers with a shoulder injury and is expected to miss this game. Jameis Winston came in and looked okay, but the offense was shut out in the fourth quarter as they blew a 17-0 lead. I do like Winston to get the win in a revenge game at home, but I could not resist the total. I expect to see something similar to the Patriots/Jets from last week.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Joe Burrow and the Bengals got the monkey off their back with their first win of the season on Monday Night Football versus the Los Angeles Rams. But it was visibly apparent that Burrow was still bothered by that calf injury he suffered in training camp.
The Titans, on the other hand, were just a half a point away from being a ‘close your eyes special’ this week. They got handed by the Cleveland Browns 27-3. The Browns defense was dominate giving up only 94 yards of offense.
The Titans problem is that Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz believes his DBs are so good, he might stack the box versus Derrick Henry and dared Ryan Tannehill to beat him. Unfortunately, the Bengals do not have that luxury, so I expect to see a more effective Henry.
The Titans' defense is still legit as well. Despite the loss they added five more sacks to their season total. With Burrow being compromised, I expect to see a better defensive effort from the Titans and the offense to do what they do best—run Henry. Mike Vrabel is 10-6 ATS as a home dog in his career, look for the Titans to win outright.
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