After a Thursday Night Football game last week that is best to just pretend didn’t exist -- not the first time we’ve said that, and certainly not the last -- this one could be pretty good, and based on the betting odds, Vegas seems to agree.
Game
New Orleans Saints vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Betting odds (DraftKings)
- Line: Saints -1
- Moneyline:Saints --108, Jaguars -112
- Over/Under: 40
Team ranks
Saints
- Points per game: 18.2 (24th)
- Points allowed per game: 16 (6th)
Jaguars
- Points per game: 23.7 (10th)
- Points allowed per game: 20.3 (15th)
Key Fantasy Injuries
Jaguars
- QB Trevor Lawrence (Knee): QUESTIONABLE
- WR Zay Jones (Knee: OUT
Lawrence is dealing with a knee sprain and was a limited participant in both Tuesday and Wednesday’s practices. The third-year signal-caller is expected to play, but monitor this situation. CJ Beathard would likely start if the Jaguars decide to take precaution and sit Lawrence, and that would be an awfully risky fantasy play.
Saints
- TE Juwan Johnson (Calf): OUT
- RB Jamaal Williams (Hamstring): QUESTIONABLE
Johnson will miss a fourth straight game since he picked up a calf injury before Week 4 against the Buccaneers. That should open things up again for Taysom Hill -- more on him later -- with Jimmy Graham and Foster Moreau also inline for targets.
Williams was designated for return by the Saints this week off injured reserve after missing the previous few weeks with his hamstring injury, and he was a limited participant for practices prior to Thursday’s contest. If he is active, it seems likely he’ll see touches in the red zone, but Williams will have tough sledding against a Jacksonville defense that ranks third in total yards on the ground, and seventh in yards per attempt.
Big Names/Big Prices (DraftKings, Captain Prices)
- Alvin Kamara, RB: $15,600
- Travis Etienne, RB: 15,300
- Trevor Lawrence, QB: $14,400
- Chris Olave, WR: $13,500
- David Carr, QB: $13,200
- CJ Beathard, QB: $12,900
- Calvin Ridley, WR: $12,000
- Christian Kirk, WR: $12,000
- Michael Thomas, WR: $10,500
It’s weird to see two running backs at the top of the list before you see a quarterback, but the Lawrence injury is baked into that equation, as is the fact that Kamara has received at least 25 touches in each of his three games and the Jaguars are ranked 15th in opponents points per game against RBs. Etienne will be facing a much stingier test with the Saints ranking second-best in points allowed to RBs, but his (all but) assured large workload makes him worth consideration.
Carr has not been able to get the ball downfield in his first season with the Saints, and he needed 50 attempts to get up to 353 yards after throwing for just 403 yards combined in his previous three contests. He does have competent weapons in Olave, Thomas and Kamara -- among others -- and he’ll be facing a defense that ranks 31st in yards allowed and 22nd in passing touchdowns. If Carr can’t throw downfield in this one, it’s time to get concerned -- if you aren’t already.
Ridley hasn’t shown much consistency – he’s topped 100 yards twice but hasn’t surpassed 40 in the other four games. While the yardage hasn’t always been there, the former Atlanta wideout has been a target hog with seven or more in five games. All due respect to players like Olave, Kirk and Thomas; but Ridley is the player I’d be looking to roster first.
Sneaky options
Taysom Hill, TE, NO: $6,200
Hill typically isn’t involved in the passing game despite being listed as a tight end, but that changed in the loss to the Texans with eight targets and seven receptions for the “former” quarterback. Some of that may have to do with game script -- again, Carr threw 50 times in that loss -- but with Juwan Johnson not available and a solid showing when give the opportunity, it shouldn’t be a big surprise if Hill sees a good number of targets again against Jacksonville.
Brandon McManus, K, JAX: $4,800
I promised two weeks ago I would try and limit kicker talk, but on a Thursday format that relies entirely on flex plays, McManus makes sense. The Jaguars have gotten into field goal range plenty, and while they’ve finished those drives with touchdowns 14 times, McManus has also been called upon to kick 14 field goal attempts – three against the Colts. At that price point, it makes a lot of sense to have McManus in your lineup.
Brenton Strange, TE, JAX: $1,000
Strange scored a touchdown while picking up 27 yards in the victory over the Colts and played 55 percent of the snaps, a season-high for the rookie. The 6-foot-4 tight end was a second-round selection for the Jaguars, and while he isn’t likely to be among the leaders for targets, he can still provide fantasy production at this price point. Adding a player like Strange also allows you to add more stars to your lineup, which is always nice.
Prediction
This is probably the most evenly matched Thursday Night Football game -- on paper – this season. If Lawrence can’t play that changes things quite a bit, but the Jags just seem like the more talented team at this point in the season and the more likely winner, even with the game in New Orleans.
Jaguars 23, Saints 14
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