October 3, 2023
NFL

It's Bye Week -- Let's Fill Those Holes

Wilson, McLaughlin, Ferguson and Dobbs are great Week 5 options
Cardinals quarterback Joshua Dobbs

The purpose of the waiver wire changes this week. No longer are we just speculating for future weeks, replacing injured players in our lineup, or cutting the underperforming players from our draft. It’s Week 5, which means we’ve got four teams on bye and these waiver wire additions may be filling out your starting lineup immediately.

With the Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks on bye, fantasy managers will be left with quite a few holes in their roster for the first time this season. Let’s fill those holes together.

Wide Receivers

Michael Wilson (6% Rostered)

Since Week 2, Wilson’s usage has been on a steady rise in the Arizona offense, all culminating in his Week 4 breakout. Now seemingly ahead of Rondale Moore on the depth chart, Wilson could become a more consistent flex option.

His seven targets were by far the most he’s had, but Wilson is building rapport with quarterback Joshua Dobbs and we still don’t know when Kyler Murray will be back.

Don’t expect two touchdowns every week for Wilson but do expect a lot of pass-happy game scripts for a struggling Cardinals team.

Curtis Samuel (14% Rostered)

Despite being on the field for the majority of snaps, Week 4 was the first-time fantasy managers were happy starting Samuel. He turned his highest target total of the season (eight targets) into seven receptions for 71 yards. A PPR dream.

With a juicy matchup against Chicago, Samuel is the perfect bye week fill-in. Touchdowns haven’t gone his way yet, but Samuel is still a serviceable PPR option.

Tyler Boyd (51% Rostered)

I’m not sure there is a more quintessential bye week wide receiver than Boyd. Never one to blow the roof off but also never one to ruin your week, Boyd is the epitome of high-floor/low-upside.

The amount of time he spends on the field can hardly go up if Tee Higgins misses time, but he may see Burrow look his way more often. What’s more likely is that Ja’Marr Chase sees the benefit of Higgins' absence and Boyd continues his steady slot role.

If you’re looking for a safe (but not so exciting) flex play for bye weeks, Boyd can fill that role.

Jameson Williams (53% Rostered)

Williams’ suspension for gambling was reduced to four games, so he can return in Week 5. While it's unknown how his talent will translate to the NFL, the upside of a former first-round pick entering one of the more exciting offenses in the NFL is enough to warrant a pick-up.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is clearly the Lions' No. 1 WR, but there is room for Williams to emerge as the WR2 in this offense and a weekly fantasy starter. Pick him up before his first week back on the field, though hold off on starting him if possible.

Running Backs

Jaleel McLaughlin (2% Rostered)

Javonte Williams suffered a hip flexor injury and missed the second half of Sunday’s victory against the Chicago Bears. In his stead, Samaje Perine and McLaughlin split the running back duties.

Good news, bad news with this one. The good news is that Javonte Williams is not expected to miss much time. The bad news is that this means McLaughlin will likely have one week of startability and it comes against a tough Jets defense.

McLaughlin should be looked at as a bye week filler while we await the return of Williams, which should be sooner rather than later.

Ronnie Rivers (2% Rostered)

Kyren Williams has been one of the best waiver wire finds of the season, currently sitting as the No. 3 PPR RB. The Rams' rushing role has fantasy value and this week highlighted Rivers as a competent backup.

Rivers turned nine carries into 47 yards and added two receptions for 10 yards. Unlikely to be worth starting while Williams is healthy and starting, Rivers is worth adding as a backup if you have room.

Tyjae Spears (34% Rostered)

It was a disappointing week if you started Spears, but it’s disappointing every week if you have to start a clear backup running back. While hardly start-able given the Titans' preference for Derrick Henry (duh), the Titans have shown they really like the rookie and continue to get him involved.

I wouldn’t feel comfortable plugging Spears into my lineup unless it is an absolute emergency, but I would like to roster one of the league’s clearest backup running backs.

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson (50% Rostered)

Tight end is gross, and volume alone is enough to make a player relevant. Ferguson has emerged as a favorite safety valve for Dak Prescott, with seven targets in three games this season including Sunday’s game against the Patriots.

Ferguson led all Cowboys in targets, receptions, and yards Sunday and turned in his third consecutive top-12 TE week. Ferguson’s PPR floor appears to be relatively safe and if he finds the end zone, a top-5 weekly finish is likely.

Jonnu Smith (2% Rostered)

A tight end led the Atlanta Falcons in receiving yards this weekend in London, and it wasn't Kyle Pitts. Seeing 6 or more targets in the last 3 games makes Smith a reluctant start at the position.

Upside is limited as the offense seems limited by Desmond Ridder. But while we await the emergence of Pitts, you can get a couple bye week or injury filler starts from Smith. Expect TE2 numbers and get excited if he turns his targets into more, like he did this past weekend.

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud (55% Rostered)

Stroud has finished as QB13 or better each of the last three weeks, even with his pass volume dipping due to positive game scripts against the Jaguars and the Steelers. With the emergence of Nico Collins and Tank Dell as viable threats for the rookie, Stroud can be relied on as a weekly starter and should get back to chucking the ball near 50 times a game as the Texans are in more negative game scripts.

Russell Wilson (53% Rostered)

While the Broncos look lost as a team, Wilson has put together multiple good games in a row including this week’s impressive three-touchdown game against a struggling Bears’ defense.

While you wouldn't start Wilson every week in one-quarterback leagues, he has shown he can be started in positive matchups. Week 5 is rough against a strong Jets defense, but you can pick him up now and then play the matchups.

Joshua Dobbs (9% Rostered)

Now that Dobbs’ jersey is available in the Cardinals team store, start taking him seriously as a fantasy option. He' been start-able the last three weeks, including two top-8 finishes. These weren’t against nobody defenses. Dobbs got it done against the Giants, Cowboys and 49ers.

The Cards' offense continues to find a way when many counted them out to start the year. With Kyler Murray having no clear timetable for return, fantasy managers can pick up Dobbs as a serviceable QB for the foreseeable future. The Week 5 matchup against the Bengals also makes Dobbs an excellent bye week replacement QB.

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Weather Report:

There are only three games on the slate today and none should be impacted by precipitation.

Injury Report:

Jorge Soler - Hip - He left Tuesday’s contest against the Rays with right hip tightness. He is considered day-to-day and could be ready to go against the Nationals.

Lane Thomas - Back - He was lifted prior to the seventh inning due to back soreness. It doesn’t sound serious but there is a chance he sits out Thursday.

Mitch Haniger - Rest - Haniger returned from the injured list on Tuesday and sat out against a righty but the team said it was only due to rest. He should be ready to go on Thursday.

Starting Pitchers (DK-FD)

Spencer Strider: 12,500-12,000

Lance Lynn: 8,800-9,500

Braxton Garrett: 8,200-8,700

Pedro Avila: 6,300-6,700

Joan Adon: 5,400-6,400

Sean Manaea: 5,000-7,300

Spencer Strider is the highest-priced pitcher for the slate, which shouldn’t be surprising. He easily leads the slate with a 2.75 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 38 percent strikeout rate. His 1.06 HR/9 is the highest of his career, without taking the two game appearance in the majors late in 2021 into account. His 60 percent HR/Barrel rate is above league average, which indicates that he could be getting a bit unlucky with the long ball. He faces a tough team in the Dodgers which makes the 12K+ price tag a bit steep.

Strider gets to go toe-to-toe with Lance Lynn in the last game in the slate on Tuesday. To say that Lynn has had an up-and-down season is a bit of an understatement. Lynn has a 3.99 SIERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 26 percent strikeout rate on the season but most of the damage was done while he was a member of the Chicago White Sox. Since joining the Dodgers, he has a 4.30 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 21 percent strikeout rate. He faces a very tough task of facing the Braves in Dodgers Stadium. Since both of these pitchers face uphill battles, going cheap on the pitching while loading up on bats, could work tonight.

Braxton Garrett gets to face the Nationals for the second game in a row. Last time out, he allowed three runs over six innings while only picking up three strikeouts. This time around, he will be in the Nationals home ballpark, which has been below league average when it comes to the long ball, especially with the forecast projecting the winds to be blowing into the ballpark.

Batter to Target

Joan Adon is a pitcher that could be easily exploited in this small slate. His 4.44 SIERA is easily the worst of the group ad Nationals Park is a bit hitter-friendly this season. While the Marlins hitters have struggled in the second of the season Jake Burger ($4,100 on DK and $3,000 on FanDuel) could be an option for fantasy managers looking some cheap power.

Stack Attack

Marlins (Braxton Garrett) vs. Nationals:

DK-FD

Lane Thomas: 4,900-3,200

Keibert Ruiz: 4,000-2,600

Joey Meneses: 4,400-2,700

If Lane Thomas is ready to go on Thursday, he is a must add. The 28-year-old is hitting .346/.393/.591 with eight homers and nine stolen bases against southpaws this season. Ruiz and Meneses also have been above league average against left-handed pitching while hitting towards the top of the Nationals lineup.

Giants (Manaea) vs. Padres:

DK-FD

Ha-Seong Kim: 4,900-3,100

Gary Sanchez: 3,800-2,600

Garrett Cooper: 2,900-2,400

Trent Grisham: 2,800-2,500

The Giants haven’t officially named a starter for Thursday’s contest against the Padres but Sean Manaea figures to fill in as the bulk reliever. Ha-Seong Kim has been out of his mind in the second half of the season, while posting a season long line of .329/.413/.579 with eight homers and ten stolen bases against left-handed pitching. Sánchez and Grisham have also hit above league average against lefties and can be add at some really low prices. Cooper has moved up to sixth in the Padres batting order after Jake Cronenworth landed on the injured list with a fractured wrist. If the Padres bats come to life at the top of the order, you could pick up some RBIs at a considerably low price point.

It’s another full slate of games Wednesday, and there are more than a handful of interesting options to gander over. Colorado-Atlanta provides some intriguing value, but a ‘lesser’ game like Kansas City taking on Pittsburgh also offers intrigue.

Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)

It’d be hard to overstate just how good the Royals' infielder has been in August, as the young star has hit.327/.379/.626 with eight homers while stealing nine bags and driving in 21 runs even for a weak team. On Wednesday, he’ll go up against the Pirates' Andre Jackson; who pitched decently over his last two starts but offers plenty of opportunity with less-than-spectacular stuff. Don’t be surprised if Witt Jr. offers a combo meal with a homer and a steal, and he’s a good bet to reach the over on that 1.5 total.

Nolan Jones : 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

Somewhat quietly, Jones has been one of the better rookies in baseball, coming into Wednesday with a slash of .271/.353/.488. He’ll get a chance to place in the friendly confines of Coors Field, and the former Cleveland prospect will also get a chance to face a right-hander who is making his MLB debut in Darius Vines. Jones is hitless in his last three games, and while that makes things a little more nerve-wracking, it also means he’s due for a big game.

Matt Olson: 0.5 RBI - More (Prizepicks)

Olson will be going up against a lefty in Kyle Freeland, and while he is statistically worse against southpaws than he is righties, worse is a subjective term considering he’s posted an .891 OPS with nine homers and 27 RBI over his 125 plate appearances. Add in the fact he’ll be playing in the friendly confines of Coors Field with some elite hitters hitting in front of him, and Olson is as good of a bet for an RBI as any player Wednesday.

Dane Dunning: 4.0 strikeouts - Higher (Underdog)

Dunning has been able to miss bats at much higher rate as of late, with 39 strikeouts over 29.2 innings of work in his five starts thus far in August. The Mets certainly offer a chance for missed bats, and are not exactly in striking distance for a playoff spot. Dunning should be able to hit his mark as long as he can throw enough strikes to do so; something he admittedly struggled with Friday against the Twins.

Brandon Pfaadt : 4.5 Strikeouts - Lower (Underdog)

There’s reason for long-term upside with Pfaadt, as he was one of the best minor-league hurlers in baseball in 2022, and there have been some flashes of brilliance in 2023 despite his ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 67 innings during his rookie campaign. Asking him to reach this total is asking him to work deep against the Dodgers, a lineup that is as feared as any in all of baseball. There’s just too much risk on betting overs with Pfaadt against this kind of team.

The Houston Astros have terrorized the Boston Red Sox this week, putting up 19 runs over the last two games, both of which started by two of Boston’s best pitchers, Chris Sale and Brayan Bello.

Sale and Bello kept the games close, giving up three and two earned runs respectively, but the bullpen couldn’t contain Houston’s bats. Jose Altuve hit for the cycle in the first game, and Yordan Álvarez homered in both games, hitting seven for nine over the two nights.

Vlad Jr Could Go Off Wednesday

The Contrarian Edge Optimizer likes the idea of doubling down on the Astros stack -- a lineup that tied a franchise record 66 hits in the last four games -- but there are also alternatives to consider. Specifically, take a look at Toronto and Seattle. Both have excellent matchups today, so let’s take a closer look.

The Blue Jays face off against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals at the Rogers Centre this afternoon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5000) could be poised for a big day. He’s riding a 10-game hitting streak, during which time he's slashing .302/.333/.438 with two home runs.

If you’re looking for some cheaper options to round out your lineup, keep an eye on both Blue Jays catchers. Danny Jansen ($3600) and Alejandro Kirk ($3000) are each available for less than $4000 on Draft Kings and rostering them should allow you a few extra dollars to roster a top tier bat or one of the three best pitchers on today’s card.

Either Santiago Espinal ($2400) or Whit Merrifield ($4400) could offer hits and runs if the Blue Jays put it together. And don’t sleep on George Springer ($4700), who’s been back in the leadoff spot this series and has put together a really nice run with a five-game hitting streak.

No August swoon for Seattle bats

The Mariners bats were momentarily silenced at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night, but they’ve been red hot this month, leading the team to a 20-6 record in August. They should stack up nicely against Zach Neal, who’s starting for Oakland for the first time since 2016.

The Mariners have been excellent against right-handed pitchers this season, hitting .240/.323/.419 with a team wRC+ of 108 this season. During their hot streak this August, those numbers are even more impressive -- .279/.363/.486 and a wRC+ of 138 against right-handed pitching.

The Optimizer likes Seattle's Teoscar Hernandez ($4500) as one of your outfielders, and you could do worse than supplementing his production with leadoff man JP Crawford ($4300). Third baseman Eugenio Suarez ($4600) offers some nice pop and while you should avoid Julio Rodriguez, who is day-to-day after a late scratch on Tuesday night, Dominic Canzone ($3000) is a very cost-effective option who’s been on a nice run over the last 10 days, hitting .306/.306/.500.

Pitchers to consider

As for pitching, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and the Brewers' Brandon Woodruff ($10200) has looked every bit like the ace we know he can be since coming back from the injured list. He’s thrown 22.2 innings across four starts with 29 strikeouts, and only the Rangers scored more than two runs against Woodruff since his return.

Another pitcher to consider is the Giants' Logan Webb ($9500), who has gone five or more innings in 18 of 19 starts this season – including a seven-inning start with seven strikeouts against the Reds at Great American Ballpark in July.

Oracle is a much more pitcher-friendly environment, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Webb surpass that strikeout total from July with a free-swinging Reds team that ranks 25th in MLB with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate.

There are 15 MLB games on tap for Tuesday and a ton of opportunities to cash. The Seattle Mariners-Oakland Athletics game is very intriguing on both sides, and the Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball over the last few weeks. Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Teoscar Hernandez: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)
Hernandez has been excellent against left-handed pitchers and Ken Waldichuk has let up six hits or more in three of his last four starts, and he’s sporting an earned run average over six.

He’s hit the over on one and a half total bases in seven straight games. He’s homered three times in his last three contests. Hernandez is scorching hot hitting the ball in August, and he sits with a .371 batting average this month. Waldichuk has been a weaker pitcher on the road than at home, and tonight’s game is in Seattle.

Ty France: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
France has singled in five of his last seven contests, and he hits way better against lefties, hitting .309 against them. France is having one of his better hitting months as he’s batting .284 in August. Waldichuk is more of a groundball pitcher, and France hits over 42 percent when it comes to ground balls. Between the amount of hits Waldichuk has given up lately, his struggles on the road and France having a strong month at the dish, he should be able to get on base this evening.

Ken Waldichuk: 5.5 Hits Allowed - More (Prizepicks)
With Waldichuk giving up at least six hits in a few starts recently, it’s hard to think that he’ll be able to shut down the Mariners who have been the best hitting team by average in the MLB over the last two weeks and third best over the last seven days. Waldichuk has a 7.43 earned run average, and opponents hit .303 against him when he’s starting on the road. Seattle hits .262 against left-handed pitchers which is the 8th highest in the majors.

Jose Altuve: 2.0 Hits+Runs+RBIs - Higher (Underdog)
Altuve has crossed the plate nine times total over his last three games. During that span he hit the ball seven times and produced five RBIs. Altuve hits .335 against right-handed pitchers, and even though Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello hasn’t given up a ton of runs in his starts recently, he’s allowed six hits or more in five straight starts. Last week in this exact matchup, Bello gave up nine hits against Houston, and since then, Altuve has heated up. Altuve has also been a better hitter on the road than at home, and this game is in Boston.

Manny Machado: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Machado has been reaching base a lot lately. Tonight, he faces St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Zack Thompson who is not only a lefty, but he’s surrendered six hits in both of his last two outings. Machado hits .327 against left-handed pitchers and he’s hit a single in three of his last five games.

Marcus Semien: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Semien hits better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. He’s hit singles in four of his last seven games, and the Rangers' bats have woken up a bit in the last week. Semien has a good history against New York Mets pitcher Jose Quintana, hitting the ball six times in 13 at-bats against him. He has the most hits for the Rangers this season.