On paper, this is not only a mismatch, it’s one of the more lopsided games of the 2023 season. That being said, there’s a reason why we play the games, and well, weirder things have happened.
Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Betting odds (DraftKings)
- Line: Chiefs -11
- Moneyline:Chiefs -625, Broncos +455
- Over/Under: 47
Team Ranks
Chiefs
- Points per game: 25.7 (9th)
- Points allowed per game: 16 (5th)
Broncos
- Points per game: 24.2 (10th)
- Points allowed per game: 36.2 (32nd)
Key Fantasy Injuries
Chiefs
TE Travis Kelce (Ankle), QUESTIONABLE
Kelce was able to return to Sunday’s victory over the Vikings after suffering a low ankle sprain and even scored a touchdown, but it’s a short recovery time for the All-Pro tight end, and he was limited in both of his practices this week. If Kelce can’t go, Noah Gray is likely to get the start and has shown he’s capable of providing fantasy relevance, but there’s obviously a big difference in talent between Gray and Kelce.
Broncos
TE Greg Dulcich (Hamstring): QUESTIONABLE
Dulcich was a full participant in his last practice, and the Broncos designated him for return from injured reserve Tuesday. That doesn’t necessarily mean he'll be active, however, as Denver has a 21-day period to decide. If Dulcich does come off IR, he should see a decent amount of snaps and targets in a game where Denver is likely going to have to throw the football. A lot.
The biggest injury news for Denver is a non-designation, however. Javonte Williams appears to be a full-go after missing Sunday’s loss to the Jets with a quadriceps injury. The 23-year-old tailback has played 40-45 percent of the snaps when active, so while he can’t be considered the bell cow, he should see plenty of touches against a Kansas City rushing defense that ranks 23rd in yards-per-attempt (4.3).
Big Names/Big Prices (DraftKings,Non-Captain Prices)
- Patrick Mahomes, QB: $12,800
- Travis Kelce, TE: $11,000
- Russell Wilson, QB: $9,600
- Isaiah Pacheco, RB: $9,400
- Jerry Meudy, WR: $9,000
- Courtland Sutton, WR: $7,800
- Javonte Williams, RB: $7,200
- Jaleel McLaughlin, RB: $7,000
- Rashee Rice, WR: $6,400
Even if Kelce can’t play and the rest of the KC receiving group isn't exactly drawing the envy of the league, it’s hard to picture Mahomes not having a big game against the Denver defense. Even while ranking just eighth in opponent pass attempts, the Broncos currently rank 29th in yards allowed and dead last in preventing passing touchdowns and net yards per attempt. Simply put, the best quarterback in the sport is going to face arguably the worst passing defense in the sport. Gulp.
While Mahomes is the obvious choice for a big night, Wilson has a good chance to put up some numbers as well, especially with the veteran signal-caller likely needing to chuck the ball to keep up with the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs have allowed 5.2 yards per attempt (5th in the NFL), but they’ve already “allowed” 185 passing attempts and 1,021 yards as teams have given up on the run early. Wilson is not the same player he was a few years ago in Seattle, but he should be able to put up decent stats --albeit in a likely loss.
The return of Williams puts a damper on his situation, but McLaughlin is an intriguing play after impressing over the last two weeks. The rookie running back has turned 16 carries over the last two games into 140 yards and caught a touchdown pass in each of the last two contests. A large bulk of the yardage for McLaughlin has come on long runs more than churning them out but that big-play ability does make him worth a shot in DFS formats, as does his involvement in the passing game.
Sneaky Options
Marvin Mims Jr., WR, DEN: $4,600
Mims disappointed in the loss to the Jets with just one reception for four yards, and he’s clearly behind Sutton and Jeudy in the pecking order while competing for targets from the Denver tailbacks and tight ends. Mims still leads the Broncos in receiving yardage with 246 through five games, and he’s one of the few big-play threats on the roster. Mims isn’t likely to see more than a spoonful of targets, but he only needs to turn one of them into a big play to have a successful day. I’d be willing to bet on it.
Samaje Perine, RB, DEN: $5,000
Perine ranks third on the Broncos in targets behind Sutton and Jeudy and hauled in four passes for 73 yards against the Jets. The veteran running back may not receive many carries with McLaughlin breaking out and the return of Williams, but there’s no doubt Perine will see a role in the passing game. It’s very likely the Chiefs offense and weak Broncos defense will make this a game where Denver has to throw quite often. It shouldn’t shock if he puts up similar -- if not better -- numbers to the ones he put up against New York.
Justyn Ross, WR, KC: $600
Calling this a shot in the dark is the understatement of understatements. Ross has just three catches on the season, but two of those came against Minnesota on Sunday, and he was targeted four times despite playing just six offensive snaps. The (extremely) low price would allow fantasy players to target the overwhelming majority of big names, and if this game gets out of hand, it’s not hard to imagine that Ross will see more playing time in the second half than he typically does; similar to what took place in the rout of the Bears in Week 3. Again, it’s risky, but if you’re running low on funds for your lineup, why not?
Prediction
A glass-half-full person would note that the Broncos could very easily be 3-2 with two one-score losses and a late defensive touchdown by the Jets that prevented a third. A glass-half-empty person would note that Denver has played one of the weaker schedules in the league, should have lost the only game they won if not for some silly mistakes by the Bears, and gave up a 70-burger to the Dolphins in the one game against a true contender in 2023. Someone who just sees a glass with some water in it will say that the Chiefs are good and the Broncos aren’t.
Chiefs 34, Broncos 23
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