October 24, 2023
NFL

Waiver Wire: Kyler's Back, That's Good

Returning Cardinals QB was top 12 in 8 of 11 starts last season
Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Can someone call the NFL schedulers for me? Why on earth did we have to suffer through six teams on bye in week 7 just to have zero teams on bye in week 8. That being said, week 8 is a nice little oasis in the sea of bye weeks that is the middle of the NFL Season.

We’re over halfway through the fantasy regular season at this point yet we’re still learning new information and watching player’s roles on teams change. This is the time of year to pay attention to upward trends on disappointing players. Look for the wide receiver whose snap share has increased dramatically but hasn’t seen the production yet. Look for the backup running backs behind older or injury prone starters. Look for the rookies who may see their first opportunities for significant playing time over the back half of the season.

Fantasy values are far from sticky and we’ll see multiple players dramatically increase (and decrease) before the end of the season. We’re trying to get ahead of those increases and get those players on our roster before the rest of the league catches on.

Wide Receivers

Josh Downs (52% Rostered)

After a slow start to his rookie year, 3rd round pick Josh Downs has taken on a larger role in this Colt’s offense. He’s had three weeks in a row of at least 6 targets and no less than 13 PPR fantasy points.

Don’t expect Downs to surpass Michael Pittman as the team’s leading receiver, but it does appear as if his role in this offense is secure and can only grow as the season progresses. Downs can be viewed as a WR2/3 depending on matchup.

Kendrick Bourne (39% Rostered)

Kendrick Bourne was doing his best Sammy Watkins impersonation until Week 6 of this year. Blow up week 1 with a multi-touchdown game and then disappear. Luckily for fantasy managers, Mac Jones remembered in Week 6 that Kendrick Bourne is his best receiving weapon and he carried that lesson over into week 7.

Back-to-back top 15 wide receiver weeks, with 7 and 11 targets respectively. Next week the Patriots head to Miami to play one of the highest powered offenses in the league. If the Patriots stand a chance, they’ll have to throw the ball a ton to keep up. Kendrick Bourne should be in line for a hefty target volume in week 8.

Jalin Hyatt (25% Rostered)

After seeing more than 46% of the snaps just once in the first 5 weeks, Jalin Hyatt has been on the field for more than 70% of the snaps over the last two weeks. While he’s starting to consistently see the field more, the production hasn’t quite caught up yet.

Hyatt brings a dimension to the game that the Giants desperately need, a big play threat on the field. If this Giants’ offense is to turn it around, Hyatt will likely be a part of that. If you have room on your bench, add Hyatt before his production catches up to his new elevated usage.

Running Backs

Darrell Henderson (37% Rostered)

My bad on Zach Evans y’all, that one really didn’t work out in all of the leagues I started him in during the bye-pocalypse of week 7. It didn’t work out because Darrell Henderson was activated from the practice squad Saturday and then was the Rams’ clear lead back on Sunday. Henderson has familiarity with this offense so there was little learning curve before he could plug right in.

Henderson should likely remain the lead back so long as Kyren Williams is out, so at least three more weeks. That being said, Royce Freeman looks to get some work as well during that time. If Henderson shows out during this time period, he could see usage even upon the return of Kyren Williams.

Emari Demercado (20% Rostered)

I know Demercado burned us a couple weeks ago but the tables were turned in week 7 as he led the Cardinals backfield with 13 carries. Keontay Ingram confusingly got no carries after leading the team in carries in week 6.

Demercado carries significant risk as the Cardinals don’t seem committed to a single back while James Conner is out, but signs are pointing in his direction. In a decent matchup against Baltimore in week 8, you can put Demercado in your lineup in a pinch.

Tyjae Spears (50% Rostered)

Tyjae Spears continues to earn snaps on a team that has Derrick Henry. While his touches were limited the last time we saw him in week 6 against Baltimore, Spears is carving out a role on this team.

I’m not yet ready to start Tyjae Spears, but get him on your bench while he’s flying under the radar due to the Titans’ bye week. Spears will likely continue to earn more work away from Derrick Henry as the season progresses.

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid (41% Rostered)

The year of the rookie tight end continued as Dalton Kincaid had his first big game of the season in the Bills’ loss to the New England Patriots. Kincaid caught all 8 of his targets for 75 yards, good enough for TE7 on the week in PPR formats.

With Dawson Knox potentially sidelined for an undetermined amount of time due to wrist surgery, Kincaid could be looking at an opportunity to continue his week 7 successes into the rest of the season.

Logan Thomas (48% Rostered)

Thomas continues to be a preferred target of Sam Howell and that should continue in a week 8 matchup against the Eagles. Thomas has gotten at least 6 targets in half of his games this season and scored a TD in two of them. While this doesn’t sound like much, it’s enough to make him TE13 on the season in PPR leagues.

With Sam Howell set to likely see a lot of pressure in week 8, expect Thomas to be heavily involved over the middle of the field. Thomas is a nice Safety Valve for Howell and Howell will likely need that in week 8.

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray (48% Rostered)

While the Joshua Dobbs experience got off to a hot start this season, it’s simmered down over the past couple of weeks. The timing of it works out nicely because we just received news that Kyler Murray will likely be back on the field by week 10.

With the Cardinals offense running surprisingly well to start the season, the upside of Kyler Murray is immense. Let’s not forget who Kyler Murray is for fantasy. This dude, that people seemingly want to leave for dead on the waiver wire, was a top 12 QB in 8 of 11 starts just last season. In 2021, he was a top 12 QB in 7 of 13 starts and a top 15 QB in 11 of 13 starts.

Kyler Murray is good for fantasy football and he’s just sitting out there in a majority of leagues. Pick him up. Put him in your IR spot. Enjoy your top 12 QB for the rest of the season when he comes back in week 10.

Tyson Bagent (7% Rostered)

This is for my friends out there feeling a little desperate. This is for the people in a work league where everyone rosters 3+ QBs. This is for the people that like a little risk in their life.

Bagent is not my 2nd favorite QB on the wire this week, but I wanted to highlight that he is startable in week 8. Bagent turned in an underwhelming fantasy performance in Chicago’s big win against the Raiders, but he’s got arguably the most QB friendly matchup in the Chargers in week 8.

Fields isn’t expected to be out long term, but if you need a week 8 spot start Bagent can get you across this finish line in a good matchup.

Other Streamers
  • Gardner Minshew (13% Rostered)
  • Bryce Young (24% Rostered)
  • Zach Wilson (8% Rostered)
  • Mac Jones (13% Rostered)
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Weather Report:

There are only three games on the slate today and none should be impacted by precipitation.

Injury Report:

Jorge Soler - Hip - He left Tuesday’s contest against the Rays with right hip tightness. He is considered day-to-day and could be ready to go against the Nationals.

Lane Thomas - Back - He was lifted prior to the seventh inning due to back soreness. It doesn’t sound serious but there is a chance he sits out Thursday.

Mitch Haniger - Rest - Haniger returned from the injured list on Tuesday and sat out against a righty but the team said it was only due to rest. He should be ready to go on Thursday.

Starting Pitchers (DK-FD)

Spencer Strider: 12,500-12,000

Lance Lynn: 8,800-9,500

Braxton Garrett: 8,200-8,700

Pedro Avila: 6,300-6,700

Joan Adon: 5,400-6,400

Sean Manaea: 5,000-7,300

Spencer Strider is the highest-priced pitcher for the slate, which shouldn’t be surprising. He easily leads the slate with a 2.75 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 38 percent strikeout rate. His 1.06 HR/9 is the highest of his career, without taking the two game appearance in the majors late in 2021 into account. His 60 percent HR/Barrel rate is above league average, which indicates that he could be getting a bit unlucky with the long ball. He faces a tough team in the Dodgers which makes the 12K+ price tag a bit steep.

Strider gets to go toe-to-toe with Lance Lynn in the last game in the slate on Tuesday. To say that Lynn has had an up-and-down season is a bit of an understatement. Lynn has a 3.99 SIERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 26 percent strikeout rate on the season but most of the damage was done while he was a member of the Chicago White Sox. Since joining the Dodgers, he has a 4.30 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 21 percent strikeout rate. He faces a very tough task of facing the Braves in Dodgers Stadium. Since both of these pitchers face uphill battles, going cheap on the pitching while loading up on bats, could work tonight.

Braxton Garrett gets to face the Nationals for the second game in a row. Last time out, he allowed three runs over six innings while only picking up three strikeouts. This time around, he will be in the Nationals home ballpark, which has been below league average when it comes to the long ball, especially with the forecast projecting the winds to be blowing into the ballpark.

Batter to Target

Joan Adon is a pitcher that could be easily exploited in this small slate. His 4.44 SIERA is easily the worst of the group ad Nationals Park is a bit hitter-friendly this season. While the Marlins hitters have struggled in the second of the season Jake Burger ($4,100 on DK and $3,000 on FanDuel) could be an option for fantasy managers looking some cheap power.

Stack Attack

Marlins (Braxton Garrett) vs. Nationals:

DK-FD

Lane Thomas: 4,900-3,200

Keibert Ruiz: 4,000-2,600

Joey Meneses: 4,400-2,700

If Lane Thomas is ready to go on Thursday, he is a must add. The 28-year-old is hitting .346/.393/.591 with eight homers and nine stolen bases against southpaws this season. Ruiz and Meneses also have been above league average against left-handed pitching while hitting towards the top of the Nationals lineup.

Giants (Manaea) vs. Padres:

DK-FD

Ha-Seong Kim: 4,900-3,100

Gary Sanchez: 3,800-2,600

Garrett Cooper: 2,900-2,400

Trent Grisham: 2,800-2,500

The Giants haven’t officially named a starter for Thursday’s contest against the Padres but Sean Manaea figures to fill in as the bulk reliever. Ha-Seong Kim has been out of his mind in the second half of the season, while posting a season long line of .329/.413/.579 with eight homers and ten stolen bases against left-handed pitching. Sánchez and Grisham have also hit above league average against lefties and can be add at some really low prices. Cooper has moved up to sixth in the Padres batting order after Jake Cronenworth landed on the injured list with a fractured wrist. If the Padres bats come to life at the top of the order, you could pick up some RBIs at a considerably low price point.

It’s another full slate of games Wednesday, and there are more than a handful of interesting options to gander over. Colorado-Atlanta provides some intriguing value, but a ‘lesser’ game like Kansas City taking on Pittsburgh also offers intrigue.

Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)

It’d be hard to overstate just how good the Royals' infielder has been in August, as the young star has hit.327/.379/.626 with eight homers while stealing nine bags and driving in 21 runs even for a weak team. On Wednesday, he’ll go up against the Pirates' Andre Jackson; who pitched decently over his last two starts but offers plenty of opportunity with less-than-spectacular stuff. Don’t be surprised if Witt Jr. offers a combo meal with a homer and a steal, and he’s a good bet to reach the over on that 1.5 total.

Nolan Jones : 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

Somewhat quietly, Jones has been one of the better rookies in baseball, coming into Wednesday with a slash of .271/.353/.488. He’ll get a chance to place in the friendly confines of Coors Field, and the former Cleveland prospect will also get a chance to face a right-hander who is making his MLB debut in Darius Vines. Jones is hitless in his last three games, and while that makes things a little more nerve-wracking, it also means he’s due for a big game.

Matt Olson: 0.5 RBI - More (Prizepicks)

Olson will be going up against a lefty in Kyle Freeland, and while he is statistically worse against southpaws than he is righties, worse is a subjective term considering he’s posted an .891 OPS with nine homers and 27 RBI over his 125 plate appearances. Add in the fact he’ll be playing in the friendly confines of Coors Field with some elite hitters hitting in front of him, and Olson is as good of a bet for an RBI as any player Wednesday.

Dane Dunning: 4.0 strikeouts - Higher (Underdog)

Dunning has been able to miss bats at much higher rate as of late, with 39 strikeouts over 29.2 innings of work in his five starts thus far in August. The Mets certainly offer a chance for missed bats, and are not exactly in striking distance for a playoff spot. Dunning should be able to hit his mark as long as he can throw enough strikes to do so; something he admittedly struggled with Friday against the Twins.

Brandon Pfaadt : 4.5 Strikeouts - Lower (Underdog)

There’s reason for long-term upside with Pfaadt, as he was one of the best minor-league hurlers in baseball in 2022, and there have been some flashes of brilliance in 2023 despite his ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 67 innings during his rookie campaign. Asking him to reach this total is asking him to work deep against the Dodgers, a lineup that is as feared as any in all of baseball. There’s just too much risk on betting overs with Pfaadt against this kind of team.

The Houston Astros have terrorized the Boston Red Sox this week, putting up 19 runs over the last two games, both of which started by two of Boston’s best pitchers, Chris Sale and Brayan Bello.

Sale and Bello kept the games close, giving up three and two earned runs respectively, but the bullpen couldn’t contain Houston’s bats. Jose Altuve hit for the cycle in the first game, and Yordan Álvarez homered in both games, hitting seven for nine over the two nights.

Vlad Jr Could Go Off Wednesday

The Contrarian Edge Optimizer likes the idea of doubling down on the Astros stack -- a lineup that tied a franchise record 66 hits in the last four games -- but there are also alternatives to consider. Specifically, take a look at Toronto and Seattle. Both have excellent matchups today, so let’s take a closer look.

The Blue Jays face off against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals at the Rogers Centre this afternoon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5000) could be poised for a big day. He’s riding a 10-game hitting streak, during which time he's slashing .302/.333/.438 with two home runs.

If you’re looking for some cheaper options to round out your lineup, keep an eye on both Blue Jays catchers. Danny Jansen ($3600) and Alejandro Kirk ($3000) are each available for less than $4000 on Draft Kings and rostering them should allow you a few extra dollars to roster a top tier bat or one of the three best pitchers on today’s card.

Either Santiago Espinal ($2400) or Whit Merrifield ($4400) could offer hits and runs if the Blue Jays put it together. And don’t sleep on George Springer ($4700), who’s been back in the leadoff spot this series and has put together a really nice run with a five-game hitting streak.

No August swoon for Seattle bats

The Mariners bats were momentarily silenced at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night, but they’ve been red hot this month, leading the team to a 20-6 record in August. They should stack up nicely against Zach Neal, who’s starting for Oakland for the first time since 2016.

The Mariners have been excellent against right-handed pitchers this season, hitting .240/.323/.419 with a team wRC+ of 108 this season. During their hot streak this August, those numbers are even more impressive -- .279/.363/.486 and a wRC+ of 138 against right-handed pitching.

The Optimizer likes Seattle's Teoscar Hernandez ($4500) as one of your outfielders, and you could do worse than supplementing his production with leadoff man JP Crawford ($4300). Third baseman Eugenio Suarez ($4600) offers some nice pop and while you should avoid Julio Rodriguez, who is day-to-day after a late scratch on Tuesday night, Dominic Canzone ($3000) is a very cost-effective option who’s been on a nice run over the last 10 days, hitting .306/.306/.500.

Pitchers to consider

As for pitching, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and the Brewers' Brandon Woodruff ($10200) has looked every bit like the ace we know he can be since coming back from the injured list. He’s thrown 22.2 innings across four starts with 29 strikeouts, and only the Rangers scored more than two runs against Woodruff since his return.

Another pitcher to consider is the Giants' Logan Webb ($9500), who has gone five or more innings in 18 of 19 starts this season – including a seven-inning start with seven strikeouts against the Reds at Great American Ballpark in July.

Oracle is a much more pitcher-friendly environment, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Webb surpass that strikeout total from July with a free-swinging Reds team that ranks 25th in MLB with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate.

There are 15 MLB games on tap for Tuesday and a ton of opportunities to cash. The Seattle Mariners-Oakland Athletics game is very intriguing on both sides, and the Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball over the last few weeks. Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Teoscar Hernandez: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)
Hernandez has been excellent against left-handed pitchers and Ken Waldichuk has let up six hits or more in three of his last four starts, and he’s sporting an earned run average over six.

He’s hit the over on one and a half total bases in seven straight games. He’s homered three times in his last three contests. Hernandez is scorching hot hitting the ball in August, and he sits with a .371 batting average this month. Waldichuk has been a weaker pitcher on the road than at home, and tonight’s game is in Seattle.

Ty France: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
France has singled in five of his last seven contests, and he hits way better against lefties, hitting .309 against them. France is having one of his better hitting months as he’s batting .284 in August. Waldichuk is more of a groundball pitcher, and France hits over 42 percent when it comes to ground balls. Between the amount of hits Waldichuk has given up lately, his struggles on the road and France having a strong month at the dish, he should be able to get on base this evening.

Ken Waldichuk: 5.5 Hits Allowed - More (Prizepicks)
With Waldichuk giving up at least six hits in a few starts recently, it’s hard to think that he’ll be able to shut down the Mariners who have been the best hitting team by average in the MLB over the last two weeks and third best over the last seven days. Waldichuk has a 7.43 earned run average, and opponents hit .303 against him when he’s starting on the road. Seattle hits .262 against left-handed pitchers which is the 8th highest in the majors.

Jose Altuve: 2.0 Hits+Runs+RBIs - Higher (Underdog)
Altuve has crossed the plate nine times total over his last three games. During that span he hit the ball seven times and produced five RBIs. Altuve hits .335 against right-handed pitchers, and even though Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello hasn’t given up a ton of runs in his starts recently, he’s allowed six hits or more in five straight starts. Last week in this exact matchup, Bello gave up nine hits against Houston, and since then, Altuve has heated up. Altuve has also been a better hitter on the road than at home, and this game is in Boston.

Manny Machado: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Machado has been reaching base a lot lately. Tonight, he faces St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Zack Thompson who is not only a lefty, but he’s surrendered six hits in both of his last two outings. Machado hits .327 against left-handed pitchers and he’s hit a single in three of his last five games.

Marcus Semien: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Semien hits better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. He’s hit singles in four of his last seven games, and the Rangers' bats have woken up a bit in the last week. Semien has a good history against New York Mets pitcher Jose Quintana, hitting the ball six times in 13 at-bats against him. He has the most hits for the Rangers this season.