Cody re-ranks the wide receivers for Week 3
My favorite sleeper in Week 2 was ... Tank Dell ... SMASH! Dell had seven receptions on 10 targets to go along with 72 yards and a score. He's still out-performing my ranking. This week’s stud sleeper belongs to Jalin Hyatt, a burner from the University of Tennessee.
Hyatt showed blazing speed at Tennessee in 2022, with a memorable 5-touchdown, 207-yard performance against Alabama. The New York Giants need that kind of jolt of energy to keep up with the 49er firepower in Week 3. While the Giants focus on getting Darren Waller warmed up with targets underneath in Week 3, look for Hyatt to take the top off of the 49ers defense a few more times and find the end zone.
Wide receiver targets are king. In Minnesota this week, the Chargers and Vikings battle for the right to NOT be winless going into Week 4. Over the first two weeks of the season, Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins have combined for 81 pass attempts per game, and I expect Sunday to be no different.
With a game total set at 53.5, players like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Keenen Allen, Mike Williams, K.J. Osborn and yes, even Quentin Johnston, stand to garner some value in fantasy leagues.
Targets are king, and there should be an abundance in Minneapolis.
Cody ranks the quarterbacks heading into Week 3
Houston rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud cracks the Top 10 for the first time in 2023, after consecutive weeks with 40+ pass attempts. He has keyed in on Nico Collins, Robert Woods and as of Week 2, his rookie best friend Tank Dell. Stroud and the Texans travel to Jacksonville, a place they have lost just once since 2014.
The Dallas Cowboys are 2-0 and have out-scored opponents 70-10, but Dak Prescott hasn't been a big part of it. He threw the ball just 24 times in Week 1, with 0 touchdowns. In Week 2, he threw 26 of his 38 pass attempts in the first half. The Cowboys' defense has been dominant with 10 sacks, and Tony Pollard has two of the Cowboys' five offensive touchdowns.
In Week 3, Prescott and the Cowboys travel to Arizona to play a fiery Cardinals defense that led the New York Giants 20-0 at halftime in Week 2, and the Washington Commanders 16-10 in the fourth quarter of Week 1.
Just four quarterbacks are averaging 0.60+ fantasy points per pass attempt in 2023. All four are top 10 in total points, despite being in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts.
Terrell breaks down the juiciest Vegas lines for Week 3
The ‘close your eyes special’ saved our day in Week 2 -- the Seahawks winning outright as +5.5 underdogs in overtime. However, I’m kicking myself for not adding the Steelers on Monday Night Football.
In any case, the ‘close your eyes special’ moves to 2-0 ATS and SU on the season. Hope you sprinkled on the money line!
Unfortunately, that was the lone bright spot. The Green Bay Packers shifted to +1.5 underdogs after injury news. They covered the +1.5, but it was -1.5 when I handicapped it for the article. And the New York Jets did not stand a chance at all. Loss.
Let’s evaluate a few lines for Week 3 of the NFL.
Shop around because there are a couple of Lions -3 out there. This line opened on the lookahead Lions -5, but the public came down heavy on the Falcons after their comeback win versus the Packers. This could be optimism on the Falcons or a fade of the Lions who just lost to the Seahawks at home (we called it!).
But I want to come back to the Lions this week. They will be without star safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who might be out for the season with a torn pec. I do not have much faith in the Lions defense, and the way to attack them is through the air. Seattle QB Geno Smith finished 32 for 41 for 328 yards and two touchdowns.
While he is still young, I am not yet a believer in Falcons QB Desmond Ridder. Atlanta relies heavily on running the ball — typical for head coach Arthur Smith. However, the Lions are allowing the seventh fewest rushing yards to running backs. Expect the Lions defense to force Ridder to try and beat them.
Jared Goff and company bounce back at home.
I might regret this very early in this game. KC QB Patrick Mahomes has one of the best win percentages since entering the league, and Chicago QB Justin Fields has one of the worst. However, we just need the Bears to not get destroyed.
How do you win games -- or cover -- vs the Chiefs? Run the ball effectively and control time of possession. Luckily, this might be the only good thing that the Bears do on offense. Fields is a gifted runner, and Chicago has shown a commitment to the rush. They didn’t in Week 2, but I expect them to add emphasis to it this week.
This is really just a fade of Mahomes and Andy Reid as heavy favorites. Mahomes is 7-13-1 as a double-digit favorite in his career, and Reid is 15-22-1. These Chiefs are still figuring things out with this new roster, so the growing pains will continue. After Week 2, this line jumped from Chiefs -9 to Chiefs -12.5.
Chiefs win comfortably but the Bears backdoor this number.
Is this the regular season or the preseason? The O/U of 37 easily clears as our lowest total on the board, so of course I’m going under. The under has cashed in three of the last five matchups between these two teams.
The Jets are struggling to readjust their offense to Zach Wilson. Nathaniel Hackett was brought in mostly because of his relationship with Aaron Rodgers and the familiarity with the offense.
Wilson is still learning this offense. The Jets’ struggles will continue operating behind a rough offensive line that has yet to afford any of their quarterbacks time to throw.
The Patriots have looked better offensively this year, maybe because now they have a real offensive coordinator. But things won’t come easy against this Jets defense. They are stacked at every position and profile to be one of the best defenses in the league.
Last week was rough because the offense put them in terrible situations, but I think back at home the offense can be competent enough to punt instead of turning the ball over and allow the defense room to work.
The under is my favorite play in this one and sharps agree as it has already moved from 38.5 to 37.
Our video gives you the top waiver options for Week 3
Week 2 was brutal for the NFL running back room. The Browns' Nick Chubb is out for the season with a knee injury, Saquon Barkley is sidelined three weeks with an ankle sprain and Jamaal Williams also was hurt Monday night.
What to do? Whom to pick up? Our terrific trio of Simon Groeneveld, Stu 'Monotone' Durst and Terrell Furman break down the players you can pick up off the waiver wire for your roster replacements. Check out the video below.
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Simon breaks down the best pickup possibilities
Data, Data, Data. After an entire offseason of looking at the same data, we’re two weeks into the slow trickle of new data that is the NFL season. With each passing week, the picture becomes clearer. At this point, there is still ample uncertainty. And that means opportunity for the savvy fantasy football player on the waiver wire.
Who is the Giants’ preferred backup running back? Will the Browns bring in somebody else with Nick Chubb injured? Is CJ Stroud the real deal!? If we can predict these outcomes accurately, we’ll have a leg up on our league mates heading into Week 3.
Nico Collins, Texans (55% Rostered), Tank Dell, Texans (20% Rostered)
Stroud was lauded by many as the most “pro-ready” QB in this class (and the best overall QB by a smaller group). Through two weeks, he might be proving them right. The Texans have unleashed Stroud in the passing game, allowing him to throw the ball 44 times in week 1 and 47 times in Week 2.
Dell and Collins have become favorite targets of this rookie QB. Both scored in Week 2, and if this pass volume remains this high, both are worthwhile adds.
Rashid Shaheed, Saints (46% Rostered)
Shaheed is proving to be Derek Carr’s preferred big play threat and a consistent part of the New Orleans passing game. While Shaheed did not find the end zone in Week 2 like he did in Week 1, he still caught 4 passes for 63 yards. Shaheed has weekly startability given his usage through two weeks. While not likely to be the most consistent, his big play ability makes him a TD threat every week.
Tutu Atwell, Rams (32% Rostered)
Speaking of big play receivers, the Rams have found their answer at that position. I know Puka Nacua is soooo hot right now, but don’t forget about Atwell as a viable option. Tutu was on the field for 94% of the Rams snaps this past week and has been targeted 17 times this season. The attention being heaped onto Puka is deserved, but the value on the waiver wire may be in his teammate Tutu.
Marvin Mims, Broncos (21% Rostered)
Mims is a stash play if you have extra room. He’s a big play receiver and showcased that in Week 2 with 2 receptions for 113 yards and a TD. However, Mims isn’t on the field nearly enough (only 24% of Broncos’ snaps in Week 2) to be a consistent weekly starter. The early success is promising, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his role grow. If you have bench space, add him now and wait.
Jerome Ford, Browns (15% Rostered)
After suffering a knee injury Monday night, Chubb’s season is over. The next man up for Cleveland is 2022 5th-round draft pick Jerome Ford. After Chubb went down, Ford had 16 for 106 yards, including a 69-yarder that showcased his playmaking ability. While Cleveland may add someone to the RB room (cough Kareem Hunt cough), Ford will likely remain RB1.
Kareem Hunt, unsigned (23%)
With Chubb gone, the Browns could be in the market for a veteran RB with familiarity of the offense. While I expect Ford to be the lead back even if Hunt signs, this will likely be an RB-by-committee, so Hunt will command fantasy value in the Browns’ run\heavy offense.
Roschon Johnson, Bears (50% Rostered)
While Johnson didn’t outsnap Khalil Herbert in Week 2 like he did in Week 1, he still saw significant playing time and was more efficient with the work he was given. D’Onta Foreman being a healthy scratch in Week 2 is a good sign for Johnson’s role in this offense. While Herbert is the 1A for the time being, expect that to switch Johnson in coming weeks.
Tony Jones Jr., Saints (0% Rostered)
With Jamaal Williams going down Monday Night, Kendre Miller dealing with a hamstring injury, and Alvin Kamara still serving 1 more game on his 3-game suspension, that leaves Jones Jr. all but alone in the RB room.
Jones scored two touchdowns Monday and should be RB1 if the injury situation doesn’t improve. That said, his upside is extremely limited. Kamara is only out for one more week and while not a running back, expect Taysom Hill to steal some work from Jones Jr. as well.
Matt Breida, Giants (3% Rostered), Gary Brightwell, Giants (0% Rostered)
Saquon Barkley is out three weeks with an ankle sprain, meaning a lot of uncertainty about who will carry the ball for the Giants. Breida is the veteran presence, and Brightwell is the 3rd-year back who has shown rare flash on special teams. While neither is particularly exciting -- especially with a matchup against the 49ers’ defense on TNF -- I’d prioritize Breida as he appears the most likely to take over as the primary back.
Taysom Hill, Saints (15% Rostered)
With RBs Williams and Miller injured, and Kamara having to serve one more game in his 3 game suspension, tight end Hill had 9 carries Monday against the Panthers. Given the current RB situation, expect Hill to remain involved in multiple ways in this offense. Given that 8-10 PPR points is all that’s needed to be a top 12 TE most weeks, Hill is a worthwhile add.
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (19% Rostered)
The butt of many offseason jokes and the sworn enemy of Kyle Trask Truthers, Baker Mayfield has looked good for the Buccaneers – throwing for 490 yards, 3 TDs, and no interceptions. The next game is against the vaunted Philly defense, but Mayfield remains stream able and his pass catching options (especially Mike Evans) remain must starts.
CJ Stroud (24% Rostered)
I sang his praises at the beginning of this article when making the case to pick up both of the rookie QB’s receiving options – Tank Dell and Nico Collins. Stroud is slinging it through the first two weeks – 91 attempts for 626 yards, 2 TDs, and no interceptions. The Texans will likely be trailing at lot this season and that will lead to more positive game scripts for Stroud and his receivers.
Mark Garcia breaks down some helpful tips on how to unleash the full potential of the Contrarian Edge Optimizer ahead of tonight's MNF games.
An optimizer is a powerful tool to harness in DFS play, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. Like any other tool, one must first learn how to wield an optimizer before its true power can be realized.
That is exactly what we will look to sort through in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Contrarian Edge Optimizer use at Fantasy Sports Logic for the Monday slates each week of the 2023 season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the newest, and most dynamic, optimizer in the industry.
It is no secret in today’s DFS scene that stacking and correlation are optimal practices to boost profitability. But why is that the case? Stacking and correlation simultaneously reduce the number of variables that need to go right and maximize ceiling when those variables do go right. In other words, stacking and correlation provide paths to bulk scoring by leveraging team tendencies in various game environments.
Targeting specific game environments in NFL DFS is typically the most optimal approach to utilizing these processes. A competitive game environment that pushes past it’s game total can provide more offensive plays run from scrimmage (more opportunity for fantasy points to accrue), more touchdowns (the bulk scoring function), increased pass rates (more opportunity for points in a PPR setting), and influence a team’s play calling tendencies (more aggression).
The Team Stacking dropdown toggle in the Contrarian Edge Optimizer provides the ability to quickly influence the optimizer’s logic towards heavier rates of team stacks. Simply select the dropdown menu and choose the team you would like to boost stacking with. While a powerful tool in and of itself, Fantasy Sports Logic’s Contrarian Edge Optimizer provides more fluidity through a nuanced team boost approach as well.
Most of the articles in this series will cover Showdown slates as we’re exploring Monday Night Football slates. This week, however, we have a Monday Night Football doubleheader on the docket, allowing us to explore more of the full range of tools at our disposal through the Contrarian Edge Optimizer.
The Auto Team Stacking Bonus toggle allows a percentage boost to be applied to players on the team that the quarterback is selected from. You can then apply the desired percentage boost to influence the optimizer’s decision-making to tilt the logic towards team stacks. This allows for more fluidity in its logic when compared to other more rigid tools that would attempt to force team stacking per prescribed rules. You can then influence the team of the stack by using both functionalities in the optimizer.
There are also certain theoretical stacking practices that the optimizer is well-equipped to handle. Through a study performed on the Milly Maker tournament on DraftKings, where I examined the weekly optimal rosters and compared them to the winning rosters each slate, I found that 22.2 percent of the optimal rosters included a quarterback paired with his tight end.
While that makes sense considering tight end scoring is heavily correlated to touchdown production, and the quarterback would be the player on the other end of those touchdowns, the field’s utilization of this practice falls short of its hit rate. That fundamentally provides leverage on the field.
Furthermore, I also found that running backs were included on the optimal stack 18 percent of the time, yet the field still largely avoids playing a running back with a quarterback. But if a quarterback is succeeding, it makes it that much more likely that his running back also succeeds due to the higher likelihood of things like drives reaching the red zone, touchdown opportunities, and overall game environment.
Both underutilized tendencies can be influenced by the user in the Contrarian Edge Optimizer through the By Position Stacking bonus functionality. Under “Set Pro Options,” select the Auto Team Stacking Bonus toggle and the By Position toggle. Then, apply the desired boost to tight end and running back, which will influence the optimizer’s inputs under specific conditions.
As you can see, the Contrarian Edge Optimizer is an invaluable tool to building bulk rosters for DFS play. To best harness its abilities, we must first have a working knowledge of the varying options to utilize as inputs in addition to a theoretical and conceptual working knowledge of the game of NFL DFS. This article series will attempt to further our understanding in both those areas throughout the season.
The players who starred and flopped during Week 2
Week 2 was the time to see if our eyes were deceiving us. Were the Week 1 studs legit? Was it really time to panic about some of our underperforming high draft picks? Were the Giants really not going to score a single point this season? (OK, that was a stretch, but it looked a little hairy there through six quarters).
We got some of our answers in Week 2, so let’s recap!
So, you spent half of your FAAB dollars on a guy some of your league mates had never heard of. You were mocked and told that you could’ve gotten him for so much less (if only you knew the other bids). And, of course, you were asked what happens when Cooper Kupp comes back.
Well, Puka Nacua rewarded your good faith with 15 grabs on 20 targets and that’s something Kupp has never done. He seems fully capable of filling Kupp’s role while he’s out, and you know what’s better than one Kupp? Make it a double.
If by some chance Puka is available in your league, get him. One more thing: if you benched him because you were afraid the 49ers would shut him down, you may have cost yourself a W – couldn’t be me. No, never…
Meanwhile, Kyren Williams' abilities apparently made Cam Akers inactive. Well, maybe not Williams himself, but Akers tweeted out that he was “confused” about being a healthy scratch in Week 2. Williams didn’t disappoint and will be the guy going forward as the Rams seek a trade for their other running back.
DANNY DIMES! Hoo boy, finally. It looked bad for Big Blue through six quarters of the season. After being smacked around by Dallas in Week 1, they were being shut out at halftime to the lowly Cardinals. But Daniel Jones is the guy fantasy owners took for his rushing upside. He also got new weapon Darren Waller involved.
All these things are positive, but the Giants don’t play the Cardinals every week. It does look like their defense isn’t going to keep them in many games, so it’ll be up to Dimes to use his arms and legs going forward and, hopefully, that means more points ahead.
A couple of “old guys” are really representing out there through two weeks. Keenan Allen is doing Keenan Allen things with Justin Herbert. He caught both of Herbert‘s passing touchdowns while dominating the target share through two weeks.
In Tampa, Mike Evans scored again while on his way to 171 yards and another Buccaneers W. Evans is clicking with Baker Mayfield early on and putting to rest some post-Brady questions. Both veterans are top-5 fantasy receivers in the young season.
Is Raheem Mostert back to Raheem MustStart? While the Patriots did their best to limit the Dolphins’ passing attack, Mostert gashed them on the ground with 121 yards and two touchdowns, including a 41-yard, untouched run into the end zone. Some of his production will be based on Mike McDaniel’s schemes, but you could do a lot worse than starting a guy in the Dolphins offense.
Hunter Henry’s stat line isn’t eye popping, but it’s clear Mac Jones is looking his way. Henry’s not going to score every week, but in an offense that might not have many dynamic plays, he’ll be a threat in the red zone whenever New England gets close.
Welcome, Nico Collins. You might not see many “in real life” wins this season, but we don’t care! Your career day shows that Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud is gonna keep looking your way, and he’s going to need to. Dameon Pierce has left a lot to be desired in the ground game through two weeks, and the offense is going to be in comeback mode quite a bit this season. Keep it rolling, young man!
The law firm of Robinson and Robinson didn’t need to make much of a case in Week 2. Brian Robinson made sure everyone knew he was *the* guy in the Commanders backfield. His 18 carries lapped the field as Antonio Gibson only carried it twice. Gibson might grab a touchdown or two in the passing game, but I’m not worried.
Bijan Robinson impressed with his 172 total yards, but don’t gloss over the fact that they were scoreless and *probably* (no, no, DEFINITELY) shouldn’t have been. Falcons coach Arthur Smith doesn’t care about your fantasy team, we get it, but maybe he should care about using his best players on his own team. Robinson is the 2-minute back in Atlanta, but when the Falcons get close to the goal line, they barely have him on the field. He’s taken just two snaps inside the 5.
I wrote about the Bengals last week and taking a “wait and see” approach and, quite frankly, I’m not loving what I see. They made it a game against Baltimore and came up just short, that’s the good.
But if I’m a Ja’Marr Chase backer (and I am! I have him in plenty of leagues) then I’m not thrilled with my investment so far – 10 grabs and 70 yards won’t cut it, but I’m an optimist. I’m not selling and I’d look to buy low if any league mate is desperate.
The caution is Joe Burrow’s wonky calf muscle. Missed time for him won’t give me extra confidence in Chase, obviously, but he’s too talented to be this hapless … right?
Let’s throw Alexander Mattison, Josh Jacobs, and Jahmyr Gibbs on this pile, also. Mattison has just never quite seemed to be able to be the No. 1 stud RB he seems to be when he was playing second fiddle to Dalvin Cook.
Where is Josh Jacobs the rushing champion? He’s frustrated and so are we. HE HAD NEGATIVE TWO YARDS AGAINST THE BILLS. That’s not rust, that’s just broken.
As for Gibbs, I’ve been tempering my expectations because of what I saw happen to D’Andre Swift in Detroit (he’s pretty good, eh?). A David Montgomery injury might drastically change the situation for Gibbs, but we’ll have to see it. If I were Gibbs, I’d look into joining the auto worker strike down the road to demand more from the powers that be.
Check out our 'Value Finder' DFS options for Week 2
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Fantasy Football Experts Stu (Montone) Durst, and Terrell Furman review all the NFL Week 8 games, give you all the Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 9 and recap the Monday Night Football Game between the Raiders and the Lions. Check the Fantasy Fire and Ice Podcast daily for injury updates, breaking NFL news, and player profiles.
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