Great captain, flex and bargain options on Sunday Night Football
On Sunday Night Football, we cap off the NFL’s second weekend with an AFC East battle -- Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins at Foxborough to take on Mac Jones and the New England Patriots.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins, 8:20 pm ET
Line: Patriots +3, Dolphins -3
Moneyline: Patriots (+124), Dolphins (-148)
Over/Under: 46.5
Patriots
Points for: 20.0 (16th)
Points Allowed: 25.0 (23rd)
Dolphins
Points For: 36.0 (3rd)
Points Allowed: 34.0 (29th)
Patriots
OT Trent Brown (Concussion) – Questionable
G Sidy Sow, (Concussion)- Questionable
CB Jonathan Jones (Ankle)- Questionable
Dolphins
OT Terron Armstead (Back, Ankle, Knee) – Questionable
LB Jaelan Phillips (Back) – Questionable
Armstead is probably the most important injury. Plenty of reports out of Miami’s practice this week are pointing toward him making his season debut. Even without Armstead blocking in Week 1, Tua posted a career-best .60 EPA per dropback.
A major surprise on the injury report is corner Jonathan Jones. He was likely going to be tasked with covering Tyreek Hill, but the missed Friday’s practice with an ankle injury that he may have picked up during the week. New England’s secondary will be in trouble if Jones can’t go.
Tyreek Hill, WR $18,900
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, $16,800
Jaylen Waddle, WR, $15,300
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, $14,100
Mac Jones, QB, $13,500
Raheem Mostert, RB, $12,000
Kendrick Bourne, WR, $10,800
Tyreek Hill, WR $12,600
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, $11,200
Jaylen Waddle, WR, $10,200
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, $9,400
Mac Jones, QB, $9,000
Raheem Mostert, RB, $8,000
Kendrick Bourne, WR, $7,200
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Tyreek Hill is projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate over at DraftKings, projected to appear in over 28 percent of lineups. The highest-owned projected player for the Flex spot is Mac Jones.
Surprisingly, the Optimizer is projecting Ezekiel Elliott to appear in just over 1 percent of lineups!
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots RB, $14,100 – Captain Slot
I’m not sure this qualifies as a “sneaky” choice, but Rhamondre in your Captain slot could pay dividends. Miami’s defense was torched by Chargers running backs in Week 1 to the tune of 255 total yards and two touchdowns.
I’m not convinced we should worry about Zeke Elliott, as Stevenson played 74 percent of snaps in Week 1 compared to Elliot’s 26 percent, and Zeke fumbled.
Since the start of last season, Miami’s defense is bottom six in catches, yards, and receiving scores allowed to opposing running backs. This is noteworthy because Stevenson accumulated 6 catches on 6 targets in Week 1. We can trust his usage to be elite Sunday night.
Hunter Henry, Patriots TE, $5,600
Under new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, Mac Jones had his first career 300-plus passing yard game with three touchdowns. He attempted a career-high 52 passes in Week 1. Last season, the Dolphins allowed the third most receptions and touchdowns to opposing tight ends.
Hunter Henry saw solid usage in Week 1, catching 5 passes for 56 yards and a touchdown. Miami’s defense picked up right where it left off in 2022 allowing Chargers tight ends to catch 5 passes and a touchdown in Week 1.
Mike Gesicki, Patriots TE, $2,400
O’Brien runs a tight end-happy offense. Gesicki is in a revenge game spot against his former team that decided he wasn’t worth paying. See Hunter Henry above as to why we should insert at least one of the Patriots tight ends into our lineups Sunday night. Gesicki is a bargain!
I’m seeing plenty of people predicting Tua to stay hot here. He’s 4-0 against Bill Belichick’s Patriots. The odds suggest we should expect the offenses to produce and Tua is the current leader in the clubhouse in MVP odds.
I think the Patriots keep this game close, and Miami’s offense will continue to display its firepower. I think we see chunk gains from Rhamondre in the run game as the Patriots aim to control the tempo. Gesicki scores in the red zone on a short seam route over the middle to cap off a huge win early in the season for the Patriots. Miami gets an early wakeup call.
Final Score: Patriots 24, Dolphins 20
'Monotone' gives his TD parlay picks for Week 2
Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson was one of my favorite targets to score a touchdown this week, and I’m surprised we’re getting him at +190 considering the rookie hype. This guy is an insane athlete: 6’4, 250, with 4.4 40-yard dash and insane advanced metrics.
Even if you don’t believe in his ability as a passer, he is the clear goal line back in this offense. Guys like Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are regularly priced at -110, despite having a plethora of options around them, I promise you Richardson will find himself in that range sooner rather than later.
One of my favorite parts about this prop is the complete and utter lack of goal-line competition. Since they decided not to pay their best offense offensive player, the Colts had one of the least efficient ground games of the week, led by Deon Jackson.
In that game, Richardson scored his first NFL touchdown, with an impressive four redzone carries. You really don’t see that kind of volume in a rookie’s first game, and I expect it to continue given the Colts lack of secondary options.
Mike Williams is another one of my favorite touchdown targets. I loved how involved he was early in the Chargers game, even converting on two screen passes despite his usual deep ball usage (which he came through on later as well).
Playing against the famous Fangio cover-2 isn’t great for a player like Williams, but now he gets the Titans who allowed the most receiving yards and explosive plays to wide receivers last year. That looked to stay pretty consistent in last week’s disaster of a football game.
He has the same alpha quality that I talked about in a guy like AJ Brown/DK Metcalf, where they can catch those 50/50 balls at such a high rate AND they are targets both inside and outside the redzone.
Williams appears healthy and good to go, I think we are getting value on this line! While I’m not depending on it; Ekeler being limited or injured could also really help this play given his redzone prowess.
*This parlay will have better odds when FD posts Williams’ touchdown number, I tried waiting for it to become available but nothing yet!
Finally, I’ll be talking about a wide receiver who laid a fat goose egg this week, Bengals receiver Tee Higgins. Despite the bad numbers on paper, he still did finish the week top 5 in air yards, just missing on a couple completions thanks to a terrible outing from franchise QB Joe Burrow.
This is simply a bet on the offense turning it around, especially against a Ravens team that lost their starting safety last week. I’m expecting a bounce back from Burrow, and Higgins possesses the same dominant redzone abilities that I’m always looking for.
I’ll take one of the best contested catch receivers in the league, in a game that should have some sneaky offense.
After defending him all week, it’s time to put my money where my mouth is and get some Kadarius Toney action in! While Travis Kelce is the clear pick in the Chiefs’ offense, I think Toney really benefits from having that elite weapon back in the lineup.
Toney has never had amazing hands, but you do have to be getting consistently open to be able to make that many drops. I have feeling we see him bounce back strong this week.
One thing I love about Andy Reid is his redzone creativity, and a gadget player like Toney can give defenses lots of problems. He’s one of the few WR’s that I really wouldn’t be surprised to see score a rushing touchdown; and I think his versatility gives him some value here.
Toney is a risky play, so I’m avoiding him for parlays, but I think this number presents some value in a game with plenty of shootout potential.
While I think the other side of this is going to be much more popular, I think there is value on both sides. Two of the best defenses squaring off head-to-head, including a Jets side coming off a three in creation game.
Dak Prescott led the league in interceptions last season, and we haven’t seen him tested in a competitive game this year. If the Jets win, they need to overperform on special teams and defense, and I think this Longshot is worth a sprinkle!
Longtime scout and Fantasy writer gives his hard-nosed take on TNF
I watched this game live and took my usual live game scouting notes ... and like a restaurant or movie ‘critic’, I’m here to report my critiques -- pro and con.
My name is R.C. Fischer, and I am a decade-plus-long football scout and Fantasy writer/player (and bettor) of football things, and I watch football games for a living. I am a fan of no NFL team, except the one that I may have bet on that particular game. I review/study game tape for personal profit (or loss) in DFS and handicapping/props.
Let’s take a look at what I witnessed in this first of my Friday series on Sportstopia critiquing the ‘Best and the Worst’ of the Thursday Night Football game.
I watch/scout every regular season NFL game twice, live and during the week watching/studying the tape and the same for all the preseason games. And by far the best presentation of the football product is by Amazon.
Their pregame panel is far superior to any pregame panel in football right now.
I don’t like most TV analysts, but I really enjoy the understated, solid analysis of Kirk Herbstreit, as compared to NBC’s Cris Collinsworth laughing about everything every other play for no reason. And Fox’s Troy Aikman constantly claiming he ‘really likes’ and/or ‘has always liked’ and/or ‘this guy is going to have a big season’ on every player who just had a positive play in the game moments before. Al Michaels is a welcome Amazon game call sidekick as well.
The Next Gen viewing option by Amazon is excellent and the X-Ray Stats option for the right-hand side of your screen for real time Passing-Rushing-Receiving totals is a dream come true.
We need Amazon, Apple, and Google to buy everything related to the NFL and bring it into the modern era.
I wanted to bet small, for fun, on the Vikings and the points in this game but I was trying to figure out all day whether top OT Christian Darrisaw was going To play/be OK or not. Minnesota already was down their key starting center going into this. When Darrisaw was not listed inactive at the deadline for reporting, I went in on MIN +6.5 to join up with my earlier in the week bets on Minnesota +7.0.
Once I placed my bet, 30 seconds later after the bet was processed, one of my guys on the ground at the game texted me that Darrisaw is still being worked out pregame and he’s a true game-time decision … and next I saw him was on the sidelines with no helmet on during the game. I thought my Vikings bet was a donation at that point.
In-game, when a Vikings starting offensive guard was taken off in a cart midgame, I knew I was doomed (as bettors like to wallow at the first sign of trouble) versus the Philly defensive front the rest of the game (thankfully, I was wrong).
The Vikings are now (0-2), and really should’ve won both of these games, but now they go into Week 3 with possibly 60% of their starting O-Line out...not good.
Despite being down three offensive line starters, key ones too, Kirk Cousins threw for 364 yards, 4 TDs/0 INTs, and nearly led a comeback win despite four lost fumbles from his crew this game.
People discount Cousins because the media has told us over and over how mediocre (or worse) he is, but the guy is right in that tier of QBs below the ‘elite’ but above the ‘middle class’. He gets disrespected in Fantasy Football because of the media bias against him, but typically finds a way to be a top 10-12 Fantasy producer in any given season.
Cousins might end this week as the #1 QB in all of Fantasy after the first two weeks. He has thrown for back-to-back 340+ yard games and has 6 TD passes this season-to-date. And, again, this big output game came with 60% of his O-Line gone.
The Eagles came into this game without starting CB James Bradberry and top Safety Reed Blankenship, which helped Cousins go off...but then the Eagles also lost the very good slot CB Avonte Maddox in-game as well. Cousins is really good as it is, but he got a boost from the wounded secondary of Philly.
On the FSL podcast we shot/published earlier Thursday analyzing this game/DFS options and strategies, we discussed the impact of the wounded Eagles secondary and how that PLUS the Minnesota corrupted O-Line would force the Vikings away from the run and into a heavy passing effort -- we get a self-congratulating ‘best’ for calling this game script and subsequent huge Vikings pass game output for profitable Fantasy/DFS plays.
It was easy to predict that Minnesota would be pushed away from any type of run game to the passing game due to the Philly D-Line strength and Vikings O-Line injuries, but also in part because Alexander Mattison is one of the worst starting RBs in the NFL right now. Super slow. Lost one fumble officially, lost another in the game that got bailed out by a lined-up-offsides penalty by the defense.
He later dropped a key pass in the hurry up offense comeback attempt...and during the 4th-quarter hurry ups he kept trying to get an extra yard by staying inbounds, when time was of the essence and he was right near the sidelines to ditch out and stop the clock, which was a must...but he didn’t seem to realize it, over and over.
Of all the things that cost Minnesota a win (a win they should have gotten) -- it was Mattison.
Minnesota did this to themselves when they paid Mattison to be ‘the guy’ this offseason. They have egg on their faces and likely won’t change/admit the error for a while, instead they’ll lean more into Mattison ahead to prove a point/save face. Whatever they do...he just cost them a win here, potentially.
Last week, Swift played 19 snaps and had 1 carry and 1 catch. This week, 28 carries for 175 yards and 1 TD, and is now ‘the greatest running back in the history of the sport’,' which is what happens/the reaction when the media gets to watch a solo night game to get hysterical about.
I’m not a huge Swift fan (as a scout), but we talked about him on the DFS pregame TNF podcast, and I noted that he looked the best of the Eagles RBs in the preseason, so I assumed he would split with Boston Scott and whichever one of them got hot would take the backfield.
Scott looked good too, but got concussed, then Swift pulled away with the victory and was in many of our FSL DFS lineups for the TNF game over the more nationally coveted Mattison. That worked well.
As we were talking on the TNF preview podcast about the Eagles RB situation for TNF, I noted the positives about Swift from the preseason -- but I also mentioned how bad Gainwell looked in Week 1 and I questioned why Philly would start Gainwell so heavy and not bother to utilize some Swift and Scott (or Penny).
Well, it looks like Gainwell’s bell cow days are numbered, deservedly so. He’s not a three-down back, he’s a nice part of an RBBC.
So, let me understand this. You (the Lions) essentially give away Swift for nothing to the Eagles, a deal that was essentially a step above cutting him. OK, fine, but ...
Then you (the Lions) turn around and waste a precious #12 pick on another small/mid-sized, speedy satellite running back? Gibbs might never have an NFL game with as many yards as Swift just had here. You would hope and pray Gibbs would have a night like Swift just had, so why not just keep Swift and not waste a #12 pick on a similar thing when you could’ve drafted Christian Gonzalez, when you desperately needed CB help?
A huge, bad business decision by Detroit.
I know, I know. Gibbs is just starting out and we don’t know how good he is. He’s a magical unicorn rookie filled with sugar plum fairies dancing in football fans’ heads.
I know, Gibbs is so fast and is great in the passing game and is a playmaker. Where have I heard that before said about a player? Oh, yeah, I remember now. It was back a couple years ago from the media and fans when Detroit took D’Andre Swift to be that guy.
I was surprised by how well the Vikings defense pressured the Eagles pass game. They sacked Hurts 4 times this game and really had the Eagles pass game stymied for a while.
In the 1st-half, I thought Hurts looked lost...playing at half speed and not in sync in the passing game. Which was an extension of looking off Week 1 against New England. At halftime of this game, I started to wonder if Hurts was going to be in for a down season or wondered if he was hurt in some way.
But then you could see as this game went, Hurts started getting in sync and throwing passes with more command. It took about six quarters of play to start the season for Hurts to shake the rust and to get into his NFL flow. Hopefully the same will be true for all the other big name QB flops from Week 1 that were flops likely due to these non-play/no touch of the QB preseason events they have to deal with.
I set myself a reminder, dated for summer 2024, to remind myself that Week 1 of NFL play is now a discombobulated mess and to assume the worst and bet all the underdogs because most teams are no longer prepared for the real games to begin. It will take 2-3 weeks for things to get up to speed for many offenses.
I did an analysis (on my home site Fantasy Football Metrics.com) of the change in Fantasy scoring by position from Week 1 of 2021 to a drop-off in Week 1 of 2022 to another (historic) drop in Week 1 of 2023. Everything is falling in Week 1s...except the DST scoring is rising, which makes sense given the drop everywhere else...especially at QB.
So, when the Vikings went down 20-7 right after halftime, off that sack/fumble setting up a quick/easy Philly score -- I jumped on the in-game odds moving on DraftKings/FanDuel where the Vikings popped up to +14.5. With the Philly secondary injuries, and the way the Vikings were able to move the ball all game (just kept fumbling it away), I thought the Vikings were a ‘hope’ to make this a shootout and get the cover.
They did...that’s always a ‘best’.
And at the same time I took the +14.5 and I also plunked one cool dollar on the moneyline for Minnesota to straight up win at +1,000 odds (while down 20-7 at that point).
When it got to 27-7, I thought all these in-game bets were quick donations -- but not-too-soon-after I was suddenly on the edge of my seat with some hope of a great +1,000 comeback by the Vikings. But it was not to be, almost but no dice, thus a ‘worst’.
Pregame, as mentioned previously, I had small bets on Minnesota at +7.0 earlier in the week and +6.5 just prior. I thought that was a donation too in the 3rd-quarter, but Minnesota scored a late TD on a drive that nearly gave me a heart attack due to drops, near-miss interceptions, a fumble/turnover saved by a defensive offsides penalty, etc. I was on the edge of my seat on every play -- you gotta love Fantasy and sports betting! Where else can you get such entertainment week-to-week?
Minnesota lost by 6, so I got my game bets covered -- barely. if only the Vikes coulda won and hooked me up with a nice present to start out my Week 2 betting.
That’s it for the Best and Worst of TNF Week 2. I’ll be analyzing the game, and every NFL game, from a purely Fantasy/Dynasty perspective over at Fantasy Football Metrics.com. daily.
Check out Steezy's fades to see which players to avoid
A big shoutout to Matthew Stafford and Michael Pittman for proving me wrong in last week’s ‘Fades’ article. The goal this week? To ensure that everybody I list down below proves me right (just kidding, I’m always rooting for the players, but the fantasy world makes things tricky so sometimes it looks like you’re straddling the fence).
Without further ado, here are my biggest fades (at cost) at every position entering Week 2 (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel).
Nothing against Mr. Prescott, but if Josh Allen is going to turn the ball over four times (along with a pedestrian QB rating of 62.7) and single handedly cost his team a football game against the New York Jets in Week 1, how do you think the 2022 league leader in interceptions is going to fare against a defense that’s looking like one of the best, if not the BEST unit in all of football?
While Prescott hasn’t always been a turnover prone QB throughout his career, this Jets defense is no joke and could very realistically have Prescott looking like he’s seeing ghosts ala Sam Darnold.
Not only that, but Prescott could also be without a weapon in Brandin Cooks, who is dealing with a sprained MCL. Considering his price tag as the 10th-most expensive QB in DFS, there are plenty of QB’s you should consider inserting into your lineups at a much cheaper price who have matchups not nearly as daunting as Dakota’s.
One could argue that the Cowboys’ biggest weakness on defense last season was their subpar ability as a unit to stop the run. We’re only through Week 1 so it’s early, but the Cowboys only gave up 65 yards rushing to Giants RBs (on 15 total carries) to open the season, which doesn’t bode well for Dalvin Cook.
You know what else doesn’t bode well for Cook’s fantasy prospects? The presence of Breece Hall as his backfield mate. Having only finished with three more carries than his counterpart in the backfield, it is expected that Hall will play more of the snaps after having exploded for 127 on just 10 totes. Oh, and Hall’s surgically repaired knee is only going to get better as the week progresses.
Another factor hurting Cook’s fantasy value? The uncertainty revolving around his QB. Given that the Cowboys are almost SURELY going to load up the box to stop the run, running room could come at a premium.
Sure, Cook is likely to be used more out of the backfield, but if Zach Wilson can’t improve upon what he’s shown throughout his career, he’s going to hold everyone back alongside him on the offensive side of the ball.
I promise I don’t hate the New York Jets’ skill position players, but I do hate the matchup this week: Dallas. About as brutal as it gets! (the New York Giants will tell you all about it)
Like I mentioned above with Dalvin Cook, everything about the Jets offense has lost its luster since Aaron Rodgers went down with a torn Achilles and that includes entering-the-season fantasy darling and reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson. Stephon Gilmore.
Trevon Diggs. Zach Wilson. Those are the only three names/reasons you need to fade Wilson this week. A top-10 option at his position playing for an offense that will struggle to score points all season long at $7,400??? No thank you.
So, you’re telling me the Atlanta Falcons drafted elite pass catching prospects top 10 in back-to-back years only to have them RUN BLOCK OVER 50% OF THE TIME? My goodness, what are we doing here? Wouldn't you have been better off drafting offensive linemen or trading up for a QB?
(See my rant on our NFL Fantasy Fire and Ice episode from this past Wednesday).
While Pitts fared a little better than Drake London, two catches for 44 yards isn’t nearly enough when factoring in his price point. Until the Falcons show more competence and a willingness to involve their prized possessions at pass catcher, I’m staying away from both Pitts and London, despite the massive upside and talent they possess.
If you do the math, 80% of this article is made up of either Falcons or Jets, so shout out to those organizations for their help in contributing to this article.
Jokes aside, the same logic I used for Pitts applies to London. Not only is Atlanta allergic to passing the football, the jury is still out on QB Desmond Ridder. When he does pass the football, the RB’s are the primary targets.
Not to mention, do-it-all weapon Cordarrelle Patterson is expected to make his season debut, clouding the value of both London and Pitts even further.
And one more thing, Jaire Alexander is on the other side of the football waiting anxiously to make things hard for the second-year pro out of USC. I’m avoiding London in ALL FORMATS of fantasy this week.
'Monotone' breaks down this weekend's pick 'ems
Week 2 is here, and we’ve spotted plenty of value plays for the weekend. Every single week, I’ll be placing an Underdog/PrizePicks entry and breaking down each prop with analysis and key stats that will help you make money. Additionally, I will be using the Sportstopia DFS Optimizer to guide my research, which you can sign up for here!
Edmunds didn’t have the best "real-life" debut, but from a fantasy/betting perspective, he showed everything you want to see. He was one of the Bears big offseason additions, a versatile linebacker with a track record of success on the Bills. His versatility was a big selling point in the contract, and that’s what we’re looking to target here today.
Via PFF, he was one of the lowest-graded Bears in Week 1, but he still recorded eight total tackles + assist in the loss. Even with a rough showing, his large congrats and high snap share give me confidence that he will be right back out there this week.
What really stands out is the matchup, going up against checkdown King Baker Mayfield. For these linebacker tackle props, running back checkdowns and low ADOT targets are ideal, and Mayfield has constantly shown an inability to move the ball down the field outside of checkdowns.
Rewatching last week's victory against the Vikings, they only started to win when they threw away the "real QB playbook" and went into the "is that Colt McCoy playbook" instead.
If you thought linebackers were funky, things are about to get even crazier. While I can’t lie and say I’m some sort of expert in the special teams department, I see value in this play!
When evaluating a market like this, I obviously want high-volume punters, bad offensive teams, and non-aggressive head coaches that won’t push it on risky fourth downs. I think the Buccaneers fit the bill for all of these criteria.
Additionally, when you look at the market, a majority of teams that came into the season with a sub-500 win total, you’ll notice almost all of their punters are 4.5 or 5, giving us a little unwarranted cushion based on an opening week victory.
Camarda cleared this number in the team's opening victory, despite going against one of the worst defenses in the league. He had six punts despite the team scoring 20 points on the Vikings, which should give us confidence considering the Bears defense isn’t anything to be super concerned about.
The edge I give the Bears over the Vikings is the linebacker core, which will be very important in limiting a checkdown merchant like Baker Mayfield.
Camarda averaged 4.7 punts per game last season, with the best quarterback of all time at the helm, and all we need this guy to do is go over his season average with Baker Mayfield? Sign me up!
Now let’s leave that over on the PrizePicks and move over to underdog and play some head to head matchups.
While the Seattle secondary didn’t look great last week, I expect them to fully key in on Amon Ra. They still have Woolen on the outside, and with the lack of secondary receivers, I would expect plenty of safety attention all game long.
On the other side, we have a Lions team that loves man coverage, and with Emmanuel Mosley ruled out once again, I feel confident in DK on the outside. We saw the Chiefs wide receivers get open plenty last week; they just weren’t actually able to convert on those catches.
I think the Lions may be a bit overrated, and the Seahawks come out aggressive in this one.
After a rough Week 1 performance, Josh Allen should strongly bounce back. Like I talked about on the Thursday DFS show, Allen will be my most popular starting point this week.
One of the many reasons I’ve loved betting on the Bills is they’ve remained top eight in PROE (pass rate over expectation) in neutral and positive game scripts, meaning they continue to throw the ball when they are winning AND losing.
They understand their strengths and weaknesses, and I’m expecting a full-on bounceback.
On the other side you have Jimmy G, who might be down Jakobi Meters, who led the team in targets in Week 1. We saw Breece Hall’s explosive rushing front and center on primetime, and I expect the Raiders to attack in a similar manner with Josh Jacobs.
The Raiders consistently ran the ball when they were behind last year, and now have a downgrade at quarterback. I think Allen could easily clear Jimmy G by 50+ yards.
Captain, flex and sneaky options for Vikings game in Philly
Alright people, we’ve got football, tons of it for the next 16 weeks. It doesn’t get much sweeter than that! Week 2 of the NFL season kicks off tonight with Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles hosting Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday Night Football.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings, 8:15 pm ET
Eagles
Vikings
Eagles
Vikings
Week 1 saw accumulated injuries across the NFL. The Eagles and Vikings are no exception. Bradbury’s absence will arguably have the biggest impact on tonight’s game. Minnesota will miss its starting Center against one of the best interior defensive line groups in the NFL. The Vikings are desperately hoping Darisaw will be able to suit up to help on the offensive line.
The Eagles will miss running back Kenneth Gainwell, who surprised in Week 1 by dominating touches out of the backfield. There’s plenty of depth at RB with D’Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny and Boston Scott.
With corner James Bradberry out due to a concussion, there is an inexperienced group in the Eagles defensive backfield outside of Darius Slay and Avonte Maddox.
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Jalen Hurts is projected to be the most owned Captain on the slate over at DraftKings. Kirk Cousins finds himself in the most lineups in over 57%.
With the Eagles playing without RB Kenneth Gainwell, many will try to guess which Eagles running back will dominate touches. My guess is they run out a true committee approach. Many DFS players are expected to have Rashaad Penny in their lineups as his salary is just $1,600!
Hurts is probably the Eagles’ best option near the goal line and sportsbooks give him the best chance to score a touchdown. It’s wise to find a way to get Hurts in your lineup.
Kirk Cousins is notoriously bad in primetime with a record of 8-10. It may be best to avoid him on the road with a banged up offensive line.
T.J. Hockenson, Vikings TE, $10,200 – Captain Slot
The Vikings uber athletic tight end is in a bit of a smash spot here. According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, his roster percentage as Captain is just 5.3%. He was second in targets in Week 1, a trend carrying over from last season.
In Week 1, the Patriots’ Hunter Henry was the top scoring tight end in the NFL against the Eagles. Philly will be without Bradberry on the outside, and Slay will shadow Jefferson. The Eagle D will also be without top cover linebacker Nakobe Dean, which opens the door wide open for Hockenson to produce big numbers.
DeVonta Smith, Eagles WR, $9,000
I’m not sure I can truly define Smith as “sneaky” but he isn’t at the top of tonight’s board due to teammates A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson on the other side of the field. The Eagles’ wide receivers are set up for success. Dating back to the start of last season, the Vikings have the third-highest yards per attempt allowed and the fifth-highest explosive pass play rate.
In Week 1 under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings played the most zone of any team in the NFL. This is important because in 14 games in which Brown, Smith, and Goedert played together, Smith leads the trio with a 25% target share when facing zone defense.
Eagles Defense/Special Teams $4,400
The Eagles defense struggled on the road in Week 1, but in their home opener we can expect that group to come out with their hair on fire. Particularly up front, the Eagles have a massive advantage.
I know what you’re thinking, the Eagles are missing three starters on defense. I’m not sure that matters as slay will be tasked with shadowing Jefferson. If he can slow him down like he did last season (6 catches, 48 yards vs. Eagles), Cousins and the Vikings are in for a long night.
It woudn’t be surprising if the Eagles matched what the Cowboys did Sunday night, racking up 7 sacks. The Eagles had 70 sacks last season and their front seven might be even better in 2023.
I expect we will see an MVP-caliber performance from Jalen Hurts. I’m also confident the Eagles defense will make its mark against a banged up offensive line. The Eagles had the highest implied team total of 28 points in Week 2.
We should expect Hurts to throw for multiple scores against the inexperienced Vikings secondary. I’m also predicting Dallas Goedert to not produce another goose egg in Week 2!
Final Score: Eagles 31, Vikings 17
Three games headline Week 2 stack highlights
Tua and Tyreek headlined Week 1 in the high scoring affair against the Chargers, but who will be the duo or trio to rack it up in Week 2? Each week we will explore the best stack options for you to bring down that GPP.
Week 1 went about as poorly as you could have written it up for this duo, but it’s redemption time, baby! Higgins had zero fantasy points off eight targets from Burrow. Going against an already-beat up Ravens secondary provides the perfect opportunity for a bounce-back.
The Bengals are slightly favored, but I think the Ravens keep it close. If you’re feeling feisty, Zay Flowers’ salary is only $5000 on Draftkings ($6600 on FanDuel) to grab a piece on the other side of this game.
With projected ownership of Herbert at 1.3% this week on FanDuel (8.8% on DraftKings), you can get contrarian without getting crazy. Shoutout to Fantasy Sports Logic’s Contrarian Edge Optimizer for identifying this anomaly in ownership percentage for what I view as one of the best stacks of the weekend.
The Titans may look scary up front, but that fear dissipates when you look at their weak secondary. With RB Austin Ekeler banged up, the Chargers are likely to depend on Justin Herbert’s arm more than usual. Add in the struggles the Titans have against the pass and we have ourselves a recipe for points galore.
Sitting at a 51.5 total, this is “the game of the week”, like the Dolphins-Chargers was last week. Sometimes you don’t have to get too creative when looking for a stack, the creativity can come elsewhere in your lineup.
We have a game with the highest projected point total of the week, a discount on Trevor Lawrence compared to other top pass catching options, and one week of evidence that Ridley IS THAT DUDE still. Throw Kelce in there and find some contrarian plays to fill out the rest of your lineup.
Cody Carpentier ranks tight ends for Week 2
The golden nugget of my offseason was going to the Carolina Panthers training camp and laying eyes on the soon to be target leader for Bryce Young. Hayden Hurst made his return to Atlanta in Week 1 and did so in true leader fashion, finishing as TE2.
Hurst is no longer a sleeper, he is “the guy”, just as Frank Reich warned us he would be back in August. Although Carolina has the most difficult matchup at tight end in Week 2 -- with New Orleans -- Hurst is still a viable start in fantasy football. He is the top target on a team depleted of true veteran talent.
Cody's Rankings for Week 2:
Week 2 bounce-backs at TE belong to Darren Waller and Gerald Everett. Waller and the Giants were shut out at home against the Dallas Cowboys. In 2022, Waller finished as TE2 while playing the Arizona Cardinals while on the Las Vegas Raiders.
Despite the blowout loss on Sunday night, Waller tied Darius Slayton for the team-lead of five targets.
Fantasy Football Experts Stu (Montone) Durst, and Terrell Furman review all the NFL Week 8 games, give you all the Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 9 and recap the Monday Night Football Game between the Raiders and the Lions. Check the Fantasy Fire and Ice Podcast daily for injury updates, breaking NFL news, and player profiles.
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