NFL

Latest News

The Tennessee Titans come out of the bye week with a plan in place for Will Levis to start. According to Coach Mike Vrabel, it will be both Will Levis and Malik Willis, with Ryan Tannehill out. Willis showed a lack of pocket presence against Baltimore. I can’t imagine the Titans have an actual short leash on Levis. He comes in at QB 21.

Desmond Ridder has taken a large step forward after starting just 11 career games so far. He looks as if he has been in the NFL for 35 games. He has averaged a QB finish of 9.7 over the last three weeks, winning two of three.

Cody's RankingsQBRB | WR | TE-K-Def

The bottom of the totem pole is injured Deshaun Watson, poor performing Jordan Love and unprotected Sam Howell against the Eagles. Refer to plays like Josh Dobbs, Tyrod Taylor or Baker Mayfield if you must.

Quarterback Rankings:
RankChangeNameTeamWeek 8
1 Patrick MahomesKC@DEN
2 Jalen HurtsPHI@WSH
3 Josh AllenBUFTB
4 Lamar JacksonBAL@ARI
5 Joe BurrowCIN@SF
6 Jared GoffDETLV
7 Derek CarrNO@IND
8 Trevor LawrenceJAX@PIT
9 Tua TagovailoaMIANE
10 Kirk CousinsMIN@GB
11 Dak PrescottDALLAR
12 C.J. StroudHOU@CAR
13 Justin HerbertLACCHI
14 Matthew StaffordLAR@DAL
15 Bryce YoungCARHOU
16 Desmond RidderATL@TEN
17 Brock PurdySFCIN
18 Tyson BagentCHI@LAC
19 Gardner MinshewINDNO
20 Geno SmithSEACLE
21 Kenny PickettPITJAX
22 Will LevisTENATL
23 Joshua DobbsARIBAL
24 Russell WilsonDENKC
25 Baker MayfieldTB@BUF
26 Tyrod TaylorNYGNYJ
27 Sam HowellWSHPHI
28 Mac JonesNE@MIA
29 Zach WilsonNYJ@NYG
30 Deshaun WatsonCLE@SEA
31 Brian HoyerLV@DET
32 Jordan LoveGBMIN
33 P.J. WalkerCLE@ARI
34 Clayton TuneARIBAL
35 Aidan O'ConnellLV@DET
36 Malik WillisTENATL
Vegas Lines Analysis Week 8

“Get Paid” – Young Dolph (2015)

Because we finished another week with a 3-0 sweep, our season record is now 14-4 (78%)! Clearly, something is going right, so let’s keep it going. Here is what I am looking for this week in the NFL.

Close Your Eyes Special — Las Vegas Raiders +8 @ Detroit Lions

Welcome back, old friend. We missed you. I would take the week off as well after Mac Jones and the Patriots gave us our first ATS loss this season with a terrible bad beat. But now, we rebound.

I’m not going to sell it to you like this is a great bet. The Raiders could be starting Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. There is probably an even more likely chance that it is Brian Hoyer, who looked terrible last week vs the Bears. The Raiders are also on a back-to-back road spot, which is brutal in the NFL (remember this fact for later). And the Lions got beat so bad last week that if they were an underdog in this game, then they would also be a ‘Close Your Eyes Special’.

However, we must respect the CYE Special being 6-1 ATS. Also, we have Davante Adams returning to play the Lions. Despite being with a new team this time, Adams has had success at Detroit. In his last three games there, he averaged 7 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. I’m trusting the CYE Special again.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans +2.5

Now, I know some people are thinking, “No way am I trusting Malik Willis.”

Ryan Tannehill (ankle) got knocked out before the bye week during their game in London versus the Baltimore Ravens. This coaching staff has had two weeks to prepare Willis and themselves for a pretty big home game halfway through the season.

Meanwhile, Desmond Ridder is coming off of his first road win. But, at what cost, as Bijan Robinson is now expected to miss some time. This will also be Student vs. Master as Arthur Smith returns to Tennessee -- where he was offensive coordinator – as Falcons head coach.

This is a classic Mike Vrabel-as-a-home-underdog spot where nobody believes in the Titans, and he finds a way to get it done. Vrabel is 11-8-1 ATS as a home dog. Willis is actually 2-1 ATS as a starter under Vrabel as well. I’m going to trust the coaching staff not to ask Willis to do much and play good defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5

Here is another trend we will have to blindly trust because it is so good. Mike Tomlin is dominant as an underdog:

  • 72-44-4 (62%) as an underdog
  • 22-6-3 (79%) as a home underdog
  • 11-4 (73%) as a home underdog of less than three points

We could literally go all day here. This is a spot where you trust Tomlin. Add in that Matt Canada’s offensive looked competent with Dionte Johnson returning to the lineup. Kenny Pickett had issues with his receivers creating separation and getting open, but Johnson provides that safe option in the intermediate range that Pickett can go to.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are rightfully favored after winning four straight. But this is a back-to-back road spot for the Jaguars. In 2023, teams on the second leg of a back-to-back road spot are 9-16-1 ATS and 9-17 straight up. Very easy handicap here—we trust Tomlin (as an underdog).

Can someone call the NFL schedulers for me? Why on earth did we have to suffer through six teams on bye in week 7 just to have zero teams on bye in week 8. That being said, week 8 is a nice little oasis in the sea of bye weeks that is the middle of the NFL Season.

We’re over halfway through the fantasy regular season at this point yet we’re still learning new information and watching player’s roles on teams change. This is the time of year to pay attention to upward trends on disappointing players. Look for the wide receiver whose snap share has increased dramatically but hasn’t seen the production yet. Look for the backup running backs behind older or injury prone starters. Look for the rookies who may see their first opportunities for significant playing time over the back half of the season.

Fantasy values are far from sticky and we’ll see multiple players dramatically increase (and decrease) before the end of the season. We’re trying to get ahead of those increases and get those players on our roster before the rest of the league catches on.

Wide Receivers

Josh Downs (52% Rostered)

After a slow start to his rookie year, 3rd round pick Josh Downs has taken on a larger role in this Colt’s offense. He’s had three weeks in a row of at least 6 targets and no less than 13 PPR fantasy points.

Don’t expect Downs to surpass Michael Pittman as the team’s leading receiver, but it does appear as if his role in this offense is secure and can only grow as the season progresses. Downs can be viewed as a WR2/3 depending on matchup.

Kendrick Bourne (39% Rostered)

Kendrick Bourne was doing his best Sammy Watkins impersonation until Week 6 of this year. Blow up week 1 with a multi-touchdown game and then disappear. Luckily for fantasy managers, Mac Jones remembered in Week 6 that Kendrick Bourne is his best receiving weapon and he carried that lesson over into week 7.

Back-to-back top 15 wide receiver weeks, with 7 and 11 targets respectively. Next week the Patriots head to Miami to play one of the highest powered offenses in the league. If the Patriots stand a chance, they’ll have to throw the ball a ton to keep up. Kendrick Bourne should be in line for a hefty target volume in week 8.

Jalin Hyatt (25% Rostered)

After seeing more than 46% of the snaps just once in the first 5 weeks, Jalin Hyatt has been on the field for more than 70% of the snaps over the last two weeks. While he’s starting to consistently see the field more, the production hasn’t quite caught up yet.

Hyatt brings a dimension to the game that the Giants desperately need, a big play threat on the field. If this Giants’ offense is to turn it around, Hyatt will likely be a part of that. If you have room on your bench, add Hyatt before his production catches up to his new elevated usage.

Running Backs

Darrell Henderson (37% Rostered)

My bad on Zach Evans y’all, that one really didn’t work out in all of the leagues I started him in during the bye-pocalypse of week 7. It didn’t work out because Darrell Henderson was activated from the practice squad Saturday and then was the Rams’ clear lead back on Sunday. Henderson has familiarity with this offense so there was little learning curve before he could plug right in.

Henderson should likely remain the lead back so long as Kyren Williams is out, so at least three more weeks. That being said, Royce Freeman looks to get some work as well during that time. If Henderson shows out during this time period, he could see usage even upon the return of Kyren Williams.

Emari Demercado (20% Rostered)

I know Demercado burned us a couple weeks ago but the tables were turned in week 7 as he led the Cardinals backfield with 13 carries. Keontay Ingram confusingly got no carries after leading the team in carries in week 6.

Demercado carries significant risk as the Cardinals don’t seem committed to a single back while James Conner is out, but signs are pointing in his direction. In a decent matchup against Baltimore in week 8, you can put Demercado in your lineup in a pinch.

Tyjae Spears (50% Rostered)

Tyjae Spears continues to earn snaps on a team that has Derrick Henry. While his touches were limited the last time we saw him in week 6 against Baltimore, Spears is carving out a role on this team.

I’m not yet ready to start Tyjae Spears, but get him on your bench while he’s flying under the radar due to the Titans’ bye week. Spears will likely continue to earn more work away from Derrick Henry as the season progresses.

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid (41% Rostered)

The year of the rookie tight end continued as Dalton Kincaid had his first big game of the season in the Bills’ loss to the New England Patriots. Kincaid caught all 8 of his targets for 75 yards, good enough for TE7 on the week in PPR formats.

With Dawson Knox potentially sidelined for an undetermined amount of time due to wrist surgery, Kincaid could be looking at an opportunity to continue his week 7 successes into the rest of the season.

Logan Thomas (48% Rostered)

Thomas continues to be a preferred target of Sam Howell and that should continue in a week 8 matchup against the Eagles. Thomas has gotten at least 6 targets in half of his games this season and scored a TD in two of them. While this doesn’t sound like much, it’s enough to make him TE13 on the season in PPR leagues.

With Sam Howell set to likely see a lot of pressure in week 8, expect Thomas to be heavily involved over the middle of the field. Thomas is a nice Safety Valve for Howell and Howell will likely need that in week 8.

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray (48% Rostered)

While the Joshua Dobbs experience got off to a hot start this season, it’s simmered down over the past couple of weeks. The timing of it works out nicely because we just received news that Kyler Murray will likely be back on the field by week 10.

With the Cardinals offense running surprisingly well to start the season, the upside of Kyler Murray is immense. Let’s not forget who Kyler Murray is for fantasy. This dude, that people seemingly want to leave for dead on the waiver wire, was a top 12 QB in 8 of 11 starts just last season. In 2021, he was a top 12 QB in 7 of 13 starts and a top 15 QB in 11 of 13 starts.

Kyler Murray is good for fantasy football and he’s just sitting out there in a majority of leagues. Pick him up. Put him in your IR spot. Enjoy your top 12 QB for the rest of the season when he comes back in week 10.

Tyson Bagent (7% Rostered)

This is for my friends out there feeling a little desperate. This is for the people in a work league where everyone rosters 3+ QBs. This is for the people that like a little risk in their life.

Bagent is not my 2nd favorite QB on the wire this week, but I wanted to highlight that he is startable in week 8. Bagent turned in an underwhelming fantasy performance in Chicago’s big win against the Raiders, but he’s got arguably the most QB friendly matchup in the Chargers in week 8.

Fields isn’t expected to be out long term, but if you need a week 8 spot start Bagent can get you across this finish line in a good matchup.

Other Streamers
  • Gardner Minshew (13% Rostered)
  • Bryce Young (24% Rostered)
  • Zach Wilson (8% Rostered)
  • Mac Jones (13% Rostered)

An optimizer is a powerful tool for DFS, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. But we must first learn how to wield an optimizer to realize its true power.

That’s what we try to do in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Sportstopia’s Contrarian Edge Optimizer for every Monday Night Football game this season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the industry’s newest and most dynamic optimizer.

MNF: San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

First Run

Running the Contrarian Edge Optimizer without altering any inputs returns a roster consisting of Alexander Mattison at captain, Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, and Brandon Powell. While I agree this returns the best combination of median projections, there are additional things we need to be thinking through when taking team tendencies, injuries, and game environment into account.

Test drive the Contrarian Edge Optimizer -- $1, 1 Week

MNF Theory

First off, Deebo Samuel is set to miss the next two games, at minimum, for the 49ers with a fracture in his shoulder. That takes an already concentrated San Francisco offense and turns it into a hyper-concentrated offense. Christian McCaffrey, Aiyuk, and Kittle should be at the top of our list on this showdown slate. That said, team tendencies could narrow that down further for us.

Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores has blitzed 22 percent more than any other team. Offensive tackle Trent Williams, one of the top tackles in the game, is listed as doubtful. When you combine those two truths, we’re left with a matchup against the most blitz-heavy defense in the league without one of the top pass protectors in the league for the 49ers.

Taking previous coaching tendencies into account, we should expect TE Kittle to play heavier rates in-line. That does not mean that he won’t run routes, but I would expect Kittle to be in to block at a higher rate than we’ve seen to this point in the season. Kittle’s 89.6 percent route participation rate could take a substantial hit in this spot.

That should place increased emphasis on Aiyuk through the air in addition to a high expected workload for McCaffrey. But it should also open up some secondary players for potential fantasy goodness, primarily Ray-Ray McCloud, who filled in directly for Samuel once the latter left the team’s Week 6 contest. That’s important as it wasn’t the more straight-up Jauan Jennings that saw an increase to his snap rate and route participation.

As for the Vikings, who will be without alpha wide receiver Justin Jefferson, things get a bit more interesting. Mattison projects well due to his hefty workload in this offense, but the 49ers force one of the highest pass rates against due to their suffocating run defense. That means K.J. Osborn, Jordan Addison, Powell, and Hockenson get a slight boost to expectations in this matchup.

Practical Application

Simply applying a 10 percent boost to the projections of Aiyuk, McCaffrey, McCloud, and the Vikings pass-catchers and applying a 10 percent decrease to Kittle, Mattison, and Jauan Jennings will force the optimizer to emphasize these theoretical findings. The biggest problem with only manipulating the skill position players is that it could preclude the optimizer from including defenses and kickers at a comparable rate as would otherwise be considered without manipulating projections.

To combat this, I recommend running the optimizer without manipulating the projections of those two positions for one-third of your entries, saving one-third for the base run and one-third for entries where you manipulate the defenses and kicker projections. This will give you the best mix of theory, its application, and variance management for a highly variant one-game sample.

Fall is hands-down the best season. I thought it was summer when I was a kid, but I was dumb then. I’m dumber now, but at least I know Fall is better than the sweat-filled sauna months of the middle of the year. Football, weather, hoodies, stews. This is a football column, but it should be noted that the NBA is about to tip off, meaning we’ll have a day of NFL, NBA, NHL, and a World Series game right around the corner. So, cherish this beautiful season while we have it because winter is coming. Or, if you’re like my survivor pool, it has already come and frozen me out of any possible winnings. Oh well, on to the column!

10 Studs
  1. Travis Kelce - 179 yds. 1 TD
  2. Patrick Mahomes - 424 yds. 4 TDs
  3. D’Onta Foreman - 120 total yds. 3 TDs
  4. Lamar Jackson - 357 yds. 4 total TDs
  5. Mark Andrews - 63 yds. 2 TDs
  6. Gardner Minshew - 305 yds. 4 total TDs
  7. Josh Downs - 125 yds. 1 TD
  8. Jonathan Taylor - 120 total yds. 1 TD
  9. Jahmyr Gibbs - 126 total yds. 1 TD
  10. Darren Waller - 98 yds. 1 TD

Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce. Lamar Jackson to Mark Andrews. Those are the QB-to-TE combinations we’ve become accustomed to over the years, and we bank on them in our season-long and DFS stacks. On National Tight End Day, the combinations delivered and then some.

I admit it, I do this every year. I think the Chiefs look “underwhelming” and “disappointing.” I wonder “who they have besides Kelce?” It never matters. Mahomes dazzled with a 400+ yard game and, like clockwork, the Chiefs reminded everyone why they are, in fact, so impressive.

In Baltimore, Jackson is on pace for a career year after contract drama this off-season. His Ravens just dismantled a good Lions team. An AFC Championship collision course between KC and Baltimore? Stay tuned!

From healthy scratch to Week 7 fantasy RB1, the D’Onta Foreman story. Foreman is the lead back in Chicago out of necessity with injuries depleting the backfield, but his performances should get him more work and less healthy scratches. The Bears will likely ride him as long as Justin Fields is sidelined.

Nobody told the Indianapolis Colts they weren’t supposed to be this good. First-round QB pick Anthony Richardson had accuracy questions coming into the season and then went down to injury. Their supremely talented running back Jonathan Taylor wanted a new contract, then a trade, then had beef with the organization.

Everything was set up to be a question mark, and yet here we are. Backup QB Gardner Minshew made the most of his throws and showed off his own dual-threat ability with two passing and two rushing touchdowns.

Taylor split carries with Zack Moss but looks to be regaining playing form and is on the verge of being the alpha in the backfield again. Rookie receiver Josh Downs has shown he can complement or even outpace Michael Pittman. And Indy scored 38 in a losing effort against one of the NFL’s best defenses. There are brighter days ahead for this exciting team.

Jahmyr Gibbs, welcome to the party! So what if you did most of your damage in garbage time? I, personally, don’t believe in garbage time if there are fantasy points to be earned and/or money to be made. Gibbs operated as Detroit’s feature back while the Lions were getting manhandled by Baltimore and gave a boost to fantasy owners. He also saw 10 targets, which is perhaps a sign of things to come even when David Montgomery returns.

Let’s round the 10 studs out with another tight end to put the bow on National Tight Ends day. Darren Waller had his best game of the season by far and maybe is wondering if Daniel Jones should take some more time off. The Giants offense has looked better with Tyrod Taylor under center while Jones recovers from a neck injury. That’s a low bar, but some Giants fantasy assets like Waller finally look like startable pieces.

The Duds

While Bijan Robinson will be the written name here, the real dud is Falcons coach Arthur Smith. At some point between Saturday night and Sunday, Robinson apparently got a headache? And then Smith said he wasn’t feeling great when asked why he wasn’t on the field much? But then Robinson got one carry for 3 yards in the 4th quarter? None of it makes sense and I know fantasy mangers and bettors were enraged. Hey Artie, how about a heads-up next time?

Bills QB Josh Allen had a fine fantasy day, but the team’s reality is a lot less clear. A struggle against a bad Giants team last week followed by a loss to a bad Patriots team this week. Maybe Allen’s injury affected him? There were pedestrian numbers all around, but Gabe Davis’s one catch for six yards didn’t help anyone. The Bills have things to figure out.

Finally, I’ll include the Packers’ offense as a whole. Aaron Jones clearly isn’t right no matter how many times he’s declared “active.”  It takes Green Bay and Jordan Love a whole first half of football to get going most games. They lost to the Broncos, who had been the league’s slump-buster. And they were coming off a bye. Not sure who you can trust in that offense right now.

An action-packed Sunday culminates with arguably the best matchup of the season so far. The high-flying Miami Dolphins play at Philadelphia to battle the reigning NFC champion Eagles on Sunday Night Football.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Miami Dolphins, 8:20 pm ET
Betting Odds (DraftKings)
  • Line: Eagles -3, Dolphins +3
  • Moneyline: Eagles (-155), Dolphins (+130)
  • Over/Under: 51.5
Team Ranks (2023)

Eagles

  • Points for: 25.8 (5th)
  • Points Allowed: 20.7 (15th)

Dolphins

  • Points For: 37.2 (1st)
  • Points Allowed: 26 (26th)
Key Injuries to Watch

Eagles

  • FS Reed Blankensip (Ribs) – Out
  • CB Bradley Roby (Shoulder) - Out

Dolphins

  • CB Jalen Ramsey (Knee) – Out

The injury report for each side during the week was long but it seems both teams are at or near full strength. The Dolphins’ star offseason acquisition on defense, Jalen Ramsey, returned to practice this week in a limited capacity. He underwent knee surgery in July, and he’s likely going to return sooner than many people expected. The Dolphin secondary has been below average, and they will get quite the boost when he makes his Dolphins debut – just not this week.

Captain Prices (DraftKings)
  • Tyreek Hill, WR, $18,000
  • Jalen Hurts, QB, $17,100
  • Tua Tagovailoa, QB, $15,900
  • AJ Brown, WR, $15,000
  • Raheem Mostert, RB, $14,700
  • Jaylen Waddle, WR, $12,900
  • D’Andre Swift, RB, $12,000
  • DeVonta Smith, WR, $11,100
Flex Prices (DraftKings)
  • Tyreek Hill, WR, $12,000
  • Jalen Hurts, QB, $11,400
  • Tua Tagovailoa, QB, $10,600
  • AJ Brown, WR, $10,000
  • Raheem Mostert, RB, 9,800
  • Jaylen Waddle, WR, $8,600
  • D’Andre Swift, RB, $8,000
  • DeVonta Smith, WR, $7,400

According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Hurts is projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate at DraftKings by a margin in over 27% of lineups. It's a bit surprising given his performance against the Jets.

Swift is projected to be the next most-owned Captain in Showdown lineups, appearing in 9.5%. Surprisingly, Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa are projected to Captain just over 7% of lineups apiece.

The flex positions are projected to be much more balanced. Tua is the only player projected to appear in over 50% of lineups, meanwhile, Hurts, Hill, Brown, and Swift are projected to be in over 40% of lineups.

The current Vegas total is set at 51.5 points. Each offense plays at a quick pace. The Eagles run first, and the Dolphins pass first. Miami is 8th in neutral pace, and Philadelphia is 13th,, so there should be no shortage of plays.

By now, you have heard the storyline that Hurts and Tagovailoa are former college teammates at Alabama and will square off in the NFL for the first time. Tua was drafted in the first round, Hurts in the second round, in 2020. Each quarterback is in the MVP conversation, and both franchises believe they are Super Bowl contenders coming into Week 7 with 5-1 records. This matchup has the potential to be a Super Bowl preview and should not disappoint.

Captain Option

With this game projected to be a shootout, it would be wise to have one of these star quarterbacks in your captain slot, but which one? The answer is Hurts.

Jalen Hurts, QB, $11,400

The Eagles appear to be a pass funnel defense because it’s so strong against the run. Tua will be under pressure all night against the Eagles’ pass rush. The Eagles’ defense projects similarly to the Bills, and that’s where we saw the Dolphins give their worst offensive performance so far. It will be difficult for Miami to push the ball downfield to Hill and Waddle.

The Eagles’ offensive line is the best in the NFL. Hurts is set up to boom, as Miami has allowed the 7th highest passer rating. The Dolphins are bottom 10 in passing yards allowed. Hurts also provides the rushing upside that Tua doesn’t.

It’s a no-brainer for me to ride with Hurts in a bounce-back spot at home in a matchup where he will play with a chip on his shoulder.

Sneaky Option

DeVonta Smith, WR, $7,400

One thing about the NFL I’ve learned is when everyone zigs, you should zag. Smith has been in the headlines for his struggles, as he’s only eclipsed 20 fantasy points once so far.

But he’s in position to get back on track against a poor Dolphins secondary. He ranks 9th in the NFL in deep targets but doesn’t have much to show for it. Miami runs a ton of zone defense, and Smith’s yard per route run increases against zone coverage.

He should see plenty of Eli Apple and he can burn him on multiple occasions. I love that Smith and his fellow former teammate at Alabama, Jaylen Waddle, will be on the same field again as well. Smith will want to show up for his quarterback.

Cheap Option

Jeff Wilson, RB, $200

Wilson hasn’t played yet this season, so expectations should be tempered. He practiced fully this week for the first time, and it hasn’t been announced if he will be activated off of IR, but all signs are pointing toward it. With rookie running back De’Von Achane out, the veteran Wilson will slide into backup duties behind Raheem Mostert. Dolphins running backs have exploded this season for 280 fantasy points combined, which is 79 more than any other team!

The SNF matchup isn’t one to get excited about though. The Eagles boast a top-three run defense and have given up just the 2nd fewest fantasy points per game to RBs. The price on Wilson, who can potentially see double-digit touches, is hard to ignore though, and gives you more options on the slate.

Prediction

This is going to be a great matchup. I believe the Eagles defense up front will eventually be too much for the Dolphins. Hurts should pick apart Miami’s zone defensive scheme, and Swift will find room to run on the Eagles zone runs. The Dolphins offense has been historic, and I expect them to keep this interesting, but ultimately, Miami won’t be able to slow down the methodical Eagles offense. Hurts gets the best of Tua in their first NFL matchup.

Final Score: Eagles 34, Dolphins 20

Week 5 Value Finder

We are back with another Value Finder column for this pivotal Week 7. Six teams have a bye, so that shortens the selection pool. Less room for error so every player is valuable. Let’s look at some values:

QB: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (DK: $5,800, FD: $7,800)

Love has not consistently had all the weapons available to him, but coming off a bye he is expected to have a healthy offense. The Broncos defense have allowed the second most passing yards in the league and the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

This is a tough play when you think about how Love went into the bye. He looked very rough during a two-game losing streak, so it was the perfect spot for a bye week. Coach Matt LaFleur can center the offense and it gave the whole team another week to get healthy. While on the road, the Fantasy Sports Contrarian Optimizer agrees this is a great spot for Love versus one of the worst defenses in the league.

RB: Zach Evans, Los Angeles Rams (DK: $4,000, FD: $4,800)

You must get different if you want to win a million dollars. Evans is getting a huge opportunity with the injuries to the Rams running back room. Kyren Williams just went on IR after they traded Cam Akers to Minnesota, and Ronnie Rivers is out as well.

Evans will start against a Steelers defense that is giving up the seventh most fantasy points per game. Even with Matthew Stafford’s gunslinger mentality, Sean McVay wants to keep running. The Contrarian Edge Optimizer spit out Evans as a cheap, value play a few times. Look for Evans to exploit a Steelers defense that will be playing the pass more than the run in this game.

WR: Dionte Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (DK: $5,000, FD: $6,000)

Johnson returns from a hamstring injury that sent him to IR. He was a full participant in practice all week and does not carry an injury designation.

The Steelers offense has been abysmal without him, but I think he can reclaim his role as a focal point. Despite the changes at quarterback, he has consistently been a target hog. He runs the short to intermediate routes and is escape option for Kenny Pickett. The CEO likes Johnson as a cheap, good option.

TE: Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers (DK: $3,300, FD: $5,000)

Game Stack Alert. The Broncos' defense is giving up the most fantasy points to tight ends. They have allowed the most receiving yards and have given up three touchdowns — fourth most in the NFL.

Musgrave was knocked out in Week 4 against the Lions, but still played 69% of snaps the next week. He is lapping the tight end room in snap count and Love has fed him targets in every game he has finished. Expect to see Musgrave take advantage of a soft Broncos secondary.

After a Thursday Night Football game last week that is best to just pretend didn’t exist -- not the first time we’ve said that, and certainly not the last --  this one could be pretty good, and based on the betting odds, Vegas seems to agree.

Game

New Orleans Saints vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Betting odds (DraftKings)
  • Line: Saints -1
  • Moneyline:Saints  --108, Jaguars -112
  • Over/Under: 40
Team ranks

Saints

  • Points per game: 18.2 (24th)
  • Points allowed per game: 16 (6th)

Jaguars

  • Points per game: 23.7 (10th)
  • Points allowed per game: 20.3 (15th)
Key Fantasy Injuries

Jaguars

  • QB Trevor Lawrence (Knee): QUESTIONABLE
  • WR Zay Jones (Knee: OUT

Lawrence is dealing with a knee sprain and was a limited participant in both Tuesday and Wednesday’s practices. The third-year signal-caller is expected to play, but monitor this situation. CJ Beathard would likely start if the Jaguars decide to take precaution and sit Lawrence, and that would be an awfully risky fantasy play.

Saints

  • TE Juwan Johnson (Calf): OUT
  • RB Jamaal Williams (Hamstring): QUESTIONABLE

Johnson will miss a fourth straight game since he picked up a calf injury before Week 4 against the Buccaneers. That should open things up again for Taysom Hill -- more on him later -- with Jimmy Graham and Foster Moreau also inline for targets.

Williams was designated for return by the Saints this week off injured reserve after missing the previous few weeks with his hamstring injury, and he was a limited participant for practices prior to Thursday’s contest. If he is active, it seems likely he’ll see touches in the red zone, but Williams will have tough sledding against a Jacksonville defense that ranks third in total yards on the ground, and seventh in yards per attempt.

Big Names/Big Prices (DraftKings, Captain Prices)
  • Alvin Kamara, RB: $15,600
  • Travis Etienne, RB: 15,300
  • Trevor Lawrence, QB: $14,400
  • Chris Olave, WR: $13,500
  • David Carr, QB: $13,200
  • CJ Beathard, QB: $12,900
  • Calvin Ridley, WR: $12,000
  • Christian Kirk, WR: $12,000
  • Michael Thomas, WR: $10,500

It’s weird to see two running backs at the top of the list before you see a quarterback, but the Lawrence injury is baked into that equation, as is the fact that Kamara has received at least 25 touches in each of his three games and the Jaguars are ranked 15th in opponents points per game against RBs. Etienne will be facing a much stingier test with the Saints ranking second-best in points allowed to RBs, but his (all but) assured large workload makes him worth consideration.

Carr has not been able to get the ball downfield in his first season with the Saints, and he needed 50 attempts to get up to 353 yards after throwing for just 403 yards combined in his previous three contests. He does have competent weapons in Olave, Thomas and Kamara -- among others -- and he’ll be facing a defense that ranks 31st in yards allowed and 22nd in passing touchdowns. If Carr can’t throw downfield in this one, it’s time to get concerned -- if you aren’t already.

Ridley hasn’t shown much consistency – he’s topped 100 yards twice but hasn’t surpassed 40 in the other four games. While the yardage hasn’t always been there, the former Atlanta wideout has been a target hog with seven or more in five games. All due respect to players like Olave, Kirk and Thomas; but Ridley is the player I’d be looking to roster first.

Sneaky options

Taysom Hill, TE, NO: $6,200

Hill typically isn’t involved in the passing game despite being listed as a tight end, but that changed in the loss to the Texans with eight targets and seven receptions for the “former” quarterback. Some of that may have to do with game script -- again, Carr threw 50 times in that loss -- but with Juwan Johnson not available and a solid showing when give the opportunity, it shouldn’t be a big surprise if Hill sees a good number of targets again against Jacksonville.

Brandon McManus, K, JAX: $4,800

I promised two weeks ago I would try and limit kicker talk, but on a Thursday format that relies entirely on flex plays, McManus makes sense. The Jaguars have gotten into field goal range plenty, and while they’ve finished those drives with touchdowns 14 times, McManus has also been called upon to kick 14 field goal attempts – three against the Colts. At that price point, it makes a lot of sense to have McManus in your lineup.

Brenton Strange, TE, JAX: $1,000

Strange scored a touchdown while picking up 27 yards in the victory over the Colts and played 55 percent of the snaps, a season-high for the rookie. The 6-foot-4 tight end was a second-round selection for the Jaguars, and while he isn’t likely to be among the leaders for targets, he can still provide fantasy production at this price point. Adding a player like Strange also allows you to add more stars to your lineup, which is always nice.

Prediction

This is probably the most evenly matched Thursday Night Football game -- on paper – this season. If Lawrence can’t play that changes things quite a bit, but the Jags just seem like the more talented team at this point in the season and the more likely winner, even with the game in New Orleans.

Jaguars 23, Saints 14

Latest Videos

57
MIN Watch
NFL
Monday Night Football Recap | Fantasy Waiver Wire

Fantasy Football Experts Stu (Montone) Durst, and Terrell Furman review all the NFL Week 8 games, give you all the Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 9 and recap the Monday Night Football Game between the Raiders and the Lions. Check the Fantasy Fire and Ice Podcast daily for injury updates, breaking NFL news, and player profiles.

Sportstopia
Oct 31, 2023 1:29 PM