Simon says, check out his Week 7 stack options
Some weeks demand you to differentiate yourself more than others in the world of DFS and week 7 of the 2023 NFL season is one of those weeks. With the Panthers, Bengals, Cowboys, Texans, Jets, and Titans all on bye, ownership is going to be even more consolidated than usual.
With the help of the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, we’ve identified three stacks to help differentiate your lineups. Whether you’re looking for that budget option at QB or looking to spend big, there’s an identified stack to fill out your lineup.
Stafford has his favorite weapon in Cooper Kupp back, but don’t forget about Rams big play threat Tutu Atwell. Game script in the blowout second half of the Cardinals game in Week 6 played into Tutu’s one target as did Kupp’s return.
This week, the Rams face one of the most porous secondaries in the NFL. The Steelers have given up the fourth-most PPR fantasy points to wide receivers and have been vulnerable to the big play. Enter Stafford and his favorite deep threat option Atwell.
You’ll save cash compared to some of the high-profile options this week and differentiate yourself from the competition with Tutu as opposed to more popular Rams receiving options.
Howell is coming off three consecutive good-to-great fantasy performances. He’s been QB 8, 5, and 13 in the previous three weeks. If you look further back, you might get scared off of starting a QB that scored 0.6 fantasy points against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3.
The good news is the Giants are not Buffalo. And despite their good defensive performance in Week 6, this Giants defense is still bottom half in the league against quarterbacks and bottom third against wide receivers.
Curtis Samuel is on a hot streak and appears to be Howell’s favorite target over the middle of the field. He’s scored at least 14 PPR fantasy points in each of his last three contests and been a wide receiver 2 or better in all three as well.
Howell has a three-touchdown upside any given week and Samuel may be the most likely to catch a touchdown given Howell’s propensity to target him and Samuel’s ability to score on the ground or through the air.
Now we’re gonna spend some money. The last two stacks were a bit more budget friendly, but we’re breaking the bank on this week’s highest projected point total with some of the NFL’s superstars throwing down.
The Chargers have given up the most passing yards per game at 289.0 and that’s against quarterbacks named Ryan Tannehill and Aidan O’Connell. Patrick Mahomes is not either of those two and seems poised for a big game against a weak pass defense.
Kelce is Mahomes No. 1 target, and while the Chargers have been good against tight ends,, Kelce is borderline matchup proof. In a high scoring game involving the Chiefs, Kelce will be involved.
Don’t sleep on rookie Rashee Rice though. His price hasn’t quite caught up with what appears to be a growing role in the offense. Take the discount on Mahomes’ second option in Rice and bathe in the points of what should be a high scoring affair.
Five bargains week 7 DFS
Steezy A’s Week 7 Bargain Bin (DFS)
Let’s just say last week didn’t go as planned… but blame it on Geno Smith, James Cook, K.J. Osborn, and Logan Thomas - or blame it on me if you want.
You know what? There’s enough blame pie for everybody, blame it on all of us!
I’m not entirely sure what my hit rate is this season as far as my ‘bargain bin’ plays for you guys, but I’m thinking I’ve missed more shots than I’ve made at this point. But hey - shooters gon shoot and that’s the world of fantasy for ya.
Nevertheless, I’m back and feeling better than ever, bring it on Week 7! (all salaries are courtesy of DraftKings)
QB: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers ($5,500, QB17 at cost)
I found this purdy interesting (pun intended), but on DraftKings, there’s only three QB’s with an ownership percentage north of 10 percent.
You have your usual suspects in Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, and then you have Brock Purdy!
Perhaps DraftKings is doubtful about the status of San Fran’s injured stars in Christian McCaffrey (oblique/hip), Trent Williams (ankle), and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and whether or not they all actually play on ‘Monday Night Football’ on the road against the Minnesota Vikings, but are we going to act like Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Kyle Shanahan don’t exist???? Oh, and Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell make for great depth and would make a lot of teams envious given the plethora of running back injuries across the league.
Yes, the Niners are coming off a tough loss in Cleveland to the Browns, but the Vikings defense is in another stratosphere in comparison to the Browns defense, and I mean that in a bad way.
Purdy was in the top 5 in a lot of people’s MVP ballots and after one bad week against arguably a top 3 defense in the NFL in inclement weather, all of the naysayers are quick to slander his name?
At QB17 as far as cost, I don’t think you can find any more value at the QB position in Week 7 than Purdy, who should easily finish as a top 10 QB this week (especially when you take into account the fact that six teams are on bye).
And did I forget to mention that the Vikings allow the 9th most fantasy points to opposing QB’s?
Fire up the Purdy train!
RB: Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers ($5,300, RB23 at cost)
As a guy who was raised in the Seattle area all my life, it’s essentially taboo to heap praise or even speak of the San Francisco 49ers in a positive light, and yet here I am recommending two straight 49ers players.
Forgive me 12s, I’m just trying to do my job!
Whether or not Christian McCaffrey ultimately plays, Mason is still an intriguing start in DFS.
While he’s listed behind Elijah Mitchell on the depth chart, he’s vastly outperformed his counterpart, has scored in two straight games, is averaging almost double the yards per carry Mitchell is on the season, and is averaging just south of 6 yards per carry.
Given all of the injuries at RB across the league, the pickings are going to be slim this week, especially when you also consider the fact that they’re six teams on bye.
Given SF’s propensity to turn RB’s into stars within their system, Mason is a good bet to keep that train going.
WR: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks ($6,000, WR21 at cost)
17.7, 3.7, 26.8, 15.5, 21.7, and 53.
Those are the amount of fantasy points that Tyler Lockett has scored in his last six meetings with the Arizona Cardinals.
WOW.
If anything, the Cardinals defense has only regressed since the last time Lockett played against this team, and it doesn’t help that they’re giving up the 7th-most fantasy points (on average) to opposing wide receivers this season.
Coming off a tough loss to the Bengals in which the offense was only able to muster a measly 13 points, the Seahawks offense is due and the Arizona Cardinals are in line to pay that bill.
Not to mention, the Cardinals have been a punching bag this season for teams looking to bounce back, just ask the Bengals.
WR: Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,700, WR38 at cost)
I’m going to do something I’ve never done before, and that's to include the same player in the same article two weeks in a row.
If you were paying attention to last week’s column, I did however have Rashee Rice penciled in as my ‘flex’ player of the week, meaning he’s eligible for this week’s article as one of my designated WR’s.
Logistics over his placement aside, there were reports earlier today from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler that “Rice's profile could continue to grow in the Chiefs' offense coming out of Thursday's night's win over Denver.”
Rice went from being outside of the top 50 at WR last week to now being penciled in as a top-40 play at his position, but I still view him as underrated and an absolute bargain in DFS given the matchup, his rapidly developing trust from Patrick Mahomes, and the potential for a shootout.
How about this for a stat:
Entering Week 7, the Chargers are allowing opposing wide receivers to score an average of 45.3 fantasy points…
Do with that what you will.
TE: Jonnu Smith, Atlanta Falcons ($3,600, TE16 at cost)
Talk about a revelation at the tight end position!
Jonnu Smith hasn’t been fantasy-relevant since 2020 when he was with the Titans, and fast forward three years later - who would have known that he’d currently be a top 10 tight end in ALL OF FANTASY.
The familiarity with HC Arthur Smith and his system helps tremendously, but it also helps that Smith has uber-talented pass catchers alongside of him in Kyle Pitts and Drake London to take attention away from Smith, who hasn’t scored under 8 fantasy points since Week 1.
Not only does Smith have a steady floor, he’s also seen six or more targets in 4 of 6 games so far this season.
Statistically, the matchup isn’t there for Smith, as the Buccaneers allow an average of just under 10 fantasy points to opposing tight ends, good for 11th in the league as far as least amount allowed.
However, no one outside of the Falcons saw this sort of season coming, so who's to say he can’t continue to defy expectations?
FLEX: Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders ($4,000, WR47 at cost)
Going into the season, the consensus was that second-year WR Jahan Dotson was going to be the clear-cut No. 2 receiving option behind Terry McLaurin in Washington given the potential he flashed in his rookie season.
Entering Week 7, that couldn’t be further from the truth.
Enter Curtis Samuel, who is not only the clear-cut No. 2 in D.C, but he also happens to be sitting at WR25 (standard PPR scoring) and is a top 75 player in fantasy right now (No. 66 overall).
Having scored 14+ fantasy points in each of the last three weeks, Samuel also only has 1 game this season with under 40 receiving yards. Talk about consistency!
In addition, the Giants give up the 13th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and they still have to stop Terry McLaurin.
I absolutely LOVE Samuel this week, particularly in DFS as the value is too crazy to pass up. Barely inside the top 50 when he’s a top 70 player in ALL OF FANTASY at this point of the season?
The disrespect.
Cody's Week 7 rankings for all positions
QB Thoughts: There's a mess to clean up with Anthony Richardson, Deshaun Watson, and Justin Fields out with injuries and Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud and Dak Prescott on their bye weeks. Dig deep and utilize some aging veterans in offenses we respect.
Baker Mayfield is coming off his second QB26 finish of the season, coming against the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles. This week he's QB8, where he finished in Week 4 after a three-touchdown performance against the Saints. I expect a bounce back with fireworks from the Buccaneers at home in Week 7.
Cody's Shorts: Must-Start Sleeper QBs | Under-the-Radar RBs
Geno Smith has cooled off since his hot start in 2022 and is QB23 in points per game this season. To begin 2022, he was QB7 through the first 12 games, and a strong part of his resume was running. His rush attempts per game are down from 4.0 to 2.4, and yards from 21.5 to 8.4. In Week 7, he and the Seahawks play a Cardinals defense that has given up the 5th-most fantasy points to QBs and is tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed with three.
RB Thoughts: We go back to the well with D’Onta Foreman, who finished with 15 rush attempts and 12 routes on 39 snaps in Week 6. Roschon Johnson is still in concussion protocol, and the Bears are activating Travis Homer to join Foreman and Darrynton Evans in the backfield.
Too often fantasy gamers drop players too quickly after spending F.A.A.B. on said player. In Week 6, Jeffrey Wilson was a hot commodity, but he was a “healthy” inactive Sunday with the Dolphins needing depth on the offensive line. Chris Brooks and Salvon Ahmed took the reins behind Raheem Mostert, and Brooks went down with an injury. In Week 7, expect Wilson to have a larger role than Ahmed.
The deepest of plays is on the Rams practice squad. Darrell Henderson was signed Tuesday and Royce Freeman was signed onto the active roster. One of these two players will see a substantial growth in their role, because it was zero in prior weeks. My bet is on coach Sean McVay to ride Henderson.
WR Thoughts: After back-to-back flops from Davante Adams, he's ranked WR8. As the week goes on, we should hear some positive regression coming in favor of Adams. His health has been in question, but the utilization of players around him and lack of winning are factors. Adams has a real chance to rise to a projected top-4 option.
My favorite deep plays in Week 7 are Brandon Powell, who has 10 targets over the last two weeks without Justin Jefferson in the lineup; Josh Downs, who is averaging 6.8 targets per game; and Gardner Minshew, who is averaging six more pass attempts per game than Anthony Richardson.
Both Powell and Downs are top-30 options.
TE Thoughts: Week 7 bounce-backs belong to George Kittle and Pat Freiermuth, who has given us a whopping 53 yards this season. Michael Mayer is top 10 after a breakout game against New England, but his rookie counterpart Dalton Kincaid is coming off of a missed game in concussion protocol. He is lined up to bring the Bills some needed energy and output at New England.
Deeper cuts this week belong too Noah Fant, Cade Otton and Andrew Ogletree, with Kylen Granson re-injured.
Check out the juiciest Vegas lines for Week 7
Well, I have good news and bad news. The good news is we had another winning day as we finished 2-1 on last week’s article. The bad news is that the one loss was probably the worst beating of the season. The Patriots were down two and driving to try and win the game versus the Raiders. The absolute worst thing happened as the Patriots took a safety and failed to cover as three-point underdogs.
Nonetheless, we continue to do well in this article, so here are the lines I am looking into:
As a Giants fan, this is a tough side to take. The Giants have been abysmal and devastated by injuries. Meanwhile the Commanders have been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde and haven't put together a run of good performances.
The Giants opened to begin the season as -2.5-point favorites and are currently 2-point home underdogs. However, this line does not take into account the Commanders' struggles. Last week, I mentioned how Sam Howell has not thrown interceptions in back-to-back games. Well, he also has not had back-to-back games without an interception.
This Giants defense has found ways in the past few games to really energize their defense. They have allowed less than 300 yards in two of the past three games and created five turnovers. I expect to see the defense get pressure and rattle Howell, who is the most sacked quarterback this season.
The Browns are coming down from a major win as they gave the San Francisco 49ers their first loss of the season. Meanwhile, the Colts looked bad as they got swept by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Clearly, Cleveland looks like the better team, despite the questions at quarterback, but the line is telling a different story.
This line opened at Browns -3 and now it is Browns -2.5. This is alarming because over 80% of the bets and money are on Cleveland. We call this “reverse line movement” Now, ask yourself this — if everybody and their mom is running to bet the Browns then why would the sportsbooks lower the line. Why make it easier to bet the Browns when they are your biggest liability?
It’s because they know what I know that this is a good spot for the Colts. This Browns defense is a force, but this a huge letdown spot for the Browns after beating one of the top teams in the NFC without their starting quarterback.
But now, I think that offense will struggle with a Colts defense that is getting healthier and stronger. Shaq Leonard and Kwity Paye returned last week to give the defense a huge boost and they should be stronger this week. I expect to see a better version of Gardner Minshew at home than on the road — take the Colts to keep things close and potentially upset Cleveland.
This might have to be one of my favorite coach trends in the NFL. It may or may not be because it hit last week as well. After losing outright as 10-point favorites to the Browns, Kyle Shanahan moves to 1-6 ATS as a road favorite of seven or more points. In the previous six instances, Shanahan did win every game, but only covered one.
Consistently, Shanahan’s teams have been given too much credit on the road when playing an inferior opponent. And a Minnesota team without Justin Jefferson should pose no threat to a 49ers team looking to bounce back after their first lost.
However, every game this season for the Vikings has been a one-possession game. The most they won by is eight and the most they lost by is seven — exactly where this line is at.
The 49ers are potentially one of the best teams in the league, but Shanahan has struggled in these spots to cover the spread. And this Minnesota defense is attempting to come into their own. If Kirk Cousins can limit the turnovers versus this nasty 49er defense, then I think he can attack the middle of the field with TJ Hockenson and keep this game close.
Six teams on bye Week 7 Waiver Targets
Week 7 is one of two Bye-pocalypses in the 2023 NFL Season. Six teams are on bye this coming week which means the waiver wire is more important than ever as the players you pick up have a good chance of needing to be started in the place of a usual starter on bye. Add to this the unusually high number of injuries in week 6 and a lot of our teams will be a patchwork posse of bench riders and waiver wire finds. Let’s get started.
Week 7 Byes: Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans
Wide Receivers
Joshua Palmer (65% Rostered)
Give a peek to see if Joshua Palmer is still on your waiver wire because he’s sitting there in a little over a third of leagues. Mike Williams is done for the year and Quentin Johnston hasn’t been much of a factor (yet). For the foreseeable future, Palmer is the WR2 in a pass heavy offense.
Rashee Rice (55% Rostered)
Is this real? A Chiefs wide receiver we can trust for fantasy? Maybe not yet, but if Rashee Rice isn’t rostered in your league don’t wait until we find out the answer to that question before picking him up.
Rice has put up two decent weeks in a row, but more importantly he’s starting to look more involved in the offense on a weekly basis. Like we discussed in last week’s waiver article, second half of the year breakouts for rookie wide receivers are common and Rice is in the right offense for a breakout.
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Curtis Samuel (51% Rostered)
Curtis Samuel has had a touchdown in each of his last three games, leading him to WR 12, WR 14, and WR 23 PPR finishes over that time. While some may look at this as a sign of upcoming touchdown regression, I see a forming connection over the middle of the field between Sam Howell & Curtis Samuel.
Samuel has been the most consistent of the Washington receiving options and should remain relatively consistent in his usage going forward. If he scores a touchdown, you’re happy you started him. And Samuel is one of the more likely players on the Commanders to find the end zone.
Josh Downs (50% Rostered)
You love watching a player catch their first career touchdown, especially when it comes the week after a “breakout” performance in week 5. Although Anthony Richardson appears to be done for the year (“probably” as Jim Irsay put it), this could be good for Josh Downs fantasy production.
Downs volume didn’t see a dip with Gardner Minshew under center as he remained the 2nd target on the team behind Michael Pittman. The Colts offense with Minshew under center won’t have as many explosive down field plays (a Josh Downs specialty), but there should be more week to week consistency.
Wan’Dale Robinson (28% Rostered)
While I would prefer to start nobody on the Giants not named Saquon Barkley, sometimes your whole bench is on bye and you gotta do what you gotta do. If you’re going to start a Giants wideout, there is some upside for a now healthy Wan’Dale Robinson.
Were the 8 targets he saw this weekend a result of Tyrod Taylor taking over at QB or a sign of him returning to form after his ACL recovery? We’ve seen flashes from Robinson before so I tend to lean towards the latter as the answer. That being said, this Giants offense is inconsistent at best and with Daniel Jones chucking the ball from behind the most porous offensive line in the league, consistency will not be find with any Giants receiver.
Running Backs
Roschon Johnson (60% Rostered)
With seemingly the entirety of the Bears running back rook injured in week 6, you might be able to sneak Roschon Johnson off the waiver wire heading into week 7.
The fantasy numbers thus far do not look fantastic, but the back field is wide open and Chicago seems to like what they have in their 4th round rookie running back. Roschon missed last week due to a concussion but should be back this coming week.
While Khalil Herbert deals with a high ankle injury and Travis Homer deals with a hamstring, Johnson could grab a hold of the lead back role here and not let go.
Elijah Mitchell (34% Rostered) & Jordan Mason (4% Rostered)
Christian McCaffrey went down in Sunday’s loss to the Browns, a double whammy for the 49ers on Sunday. While it is still unclear if CMC will miss any time due to this injury, Coach Kyle Shanahan has already confirmed that Elijah Mitchell will be the next man up if McCaffrey does indeed miss.
We’ve seen Mitchell perform as a high end RB2/low end RB1 as the starting running back in San Francisco before. Don’t judge the negative yardage performance on limited carries against arguably the best defense in football that we saw from Mitchell this weekend. He’ll get first crack at leading this backfield for the duration of any missed time by CMC.
There is the slight chance the Jordan Mason takes over this backfield (or has enough touches to be relevant) if CMC misses time. He’s worth a speculative add, but Mitchell is the priority here.
Zach Evans (5% Rostered)
A rookie running back with a grand total of one PPR fantasy point through 6 weeks is a legitimate waiver wire add in week 7.
Both Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers are currently dealing with injuries, leaving Zach Evans as the last man standing in a less than stellar Rams running back room. With that being said, Kyren Williams has found success in this role and Williams isn’t a top tier talent back. Expect the rookie Evans to struggle with the workload, but volume alone should be enough to make him fantasy relevant while the two other backs miss time.
Craig Reynolds (2% Rostered)
With both Gibbs and Montgomery dealing with injuries in week 6, Reynolds saw his biggest workload of the season with 10 carries and 2 targets coming his way. Should one (or both) of the other backs be sidelined again in week 7, Reynolds holds startable value.
With both backs out, you can start Reynolds as an RB2 with upside in this high powered Lions offense. If Gibbs is able to return this week, Reynolds is still startable but more as an RB3/Flex play.
Tight Ends
Jonnu Smith (24% Rostered)
I am here to yet again let you know that Jonnu Smith can (and should) be started in the year of 2023. Fantasy managers are near unanimous in thinking Smith’s usage is absurd with Kyle Pitts also on the team.
With Tight Ends, we look for usage and Jonnu Smith has seen at least 5 targets in every game since week 2. Smith also has turned in four top 15 tight end weeks, two of those being top 5. All of this with his first touchdown of the year coming this past week. A touchdown makes you a happy camper if you start Jonnu, but his target volume alone makes him fantasy relevant most weeks.
Michael Mayer (12% Rostered)
Rookie Tight Ends take time to break out, so when we start seeing a trend of increased usage and production it’s time to start paying attention. Mayer has posted career highs in snaps, targets, and yards in back to back weeks now. With Davante Adams seeing most of the defensive focus on Sunday, Mayer was able to eat to the tune of a top 5 Tight End performance.
Don’t expect weekly consistency, but Mayer is a suitable bye week replacement and could see his role grow as the season progresses.
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell (40% Rostered)
Sam Howell so far on the year seems to be a very matchup dependent QB. The good news is that this Commanders team has seen a ton of good matchups and has quite a few more left this season. Howell’s one “bad” game came against the Buffalo Bills defense while he’s turned in top 10 QB weeks against the likes of Chicago and Atlanta in back to back weeks.
With the Giants and the Eagles on the schedule the next two weeks, you can roll with Howell confidently for the next two weeks as your starter.
Desmond Ridder (15% Rostered)
Ridder has given you a balanced season thus far: Three top 10 QB weeks and three QB weeks outside the top 24 options. With that being said, two of Ridder’s three good weeks have come over the last two weeks to go along with Atlanta’s commitment to throwing the ball more.
While the matchup against the Buccaneers is a step up in competition compared to the Washington and Houston secondaries, Ridder is still a startable bye week replacement QB. Hopefully the Falcons continue chucking the ball 40 times a game. If so, Ridder could become more than that weekly spot start.
Other Streamers
Daniel Jones (34% Rostered) / Tyrod Taylor (4% Rostered)
Derek Carr (28% Rostered)
Baker Mayfield (31% Rostered)
Joshua Dobbs (21% Rostered)
Contrarian Edge Optimizer a great tool for DFS points
An optimizer is a powerful tool for DFS, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. But we must first learn how to wield an optimizer to realize its true power.
That’s what we try to do in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Sportstopia’s Contrarian Edge Optimizer for every Monday Night Football game this season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the industry’s newest and most dynamic optimizer.
MNF, Week 6: Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers
The first run from the CEO, without altering any settings, returns a MNF showdown roster consisting of Michael Gallup at captain, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Dak Prescott, Jake Ferguson, and CeeDee Lamb. Clearly, the optimizer likes the passing game from each team. We’ll cover some of the theoretical implications of a low-priced captain below.
There are two primary theoretical principles that guide captain selection in showdown – you either need the highest scoring player from a raw points perspective or an over-performing cheap player that unlocks the ability to gain exposure to numerous pay-up options throughout the remainder of the roster.
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In the first instance, separator scores are most valuable as no other player comes close to matching the production on a slate from one of the players. In the latter instance, and as is pertinent to the returns from the optimizer on first run, scoring is condensed at the top from a raw point total perspective, making it necessary to capture multiple players from the top tier of player pricing.
The hit rates are typically greater to capture the highest raw point total in the captain spot, but so too will the ownership be.
This then becomes an interesting discussion regarding hit rate, ownership, and leverage. From a theoretical sense, there are two paths to top-end scoring from a pass-catcher – we either need to capture bulk scoring through yardage (a downfield role) or touchdowns.
Either of those cases theoretically ties the pass-catcher to their respective quarterback, which the optimizer has done with Gallup and Ferguson present on the optimal roster. Even so, we must realize that touchdowns and deep shots downfield are two of the most variant acts found in the NFL, making a roster like this highly variant as well.
As such, optimal utilization of a roster like this would be directly tied to ownership. In other words, this roster is likely to be duplicated on this slate and would become less optimal due to the high variance included via the use of Gallup in the captain slot and another variant piece in Ferguson. It is typically a higher expected value stance to target variance at low ownership.
To continue that discussion, Gallup is currently projected for around 17 percent ownership in the captain slot due to what he opens up on the rest of the roster. As we just discussed, he is a highly volatile play on this slate while working in a downfield role on the Cowboys offense, which is typically a position to take at low ownership and relatively fade at higher ownership.
For comparison, Austin Ekeler is currently projected for around 6 percent ownership at captain yet offers clear paths to being the top overall scorer on the slate, with his low ownership likely influenced by the combination of uncertainty surrounding his first game back from injury and the state of the slate, with so many high-priced viable options that people want to jam into rosters.
A bet like Ekeler in the captain slot is a +EV bet to make over the long run, considering he is a guy that can return outlier scoring and be the highest scoring player in this game at a rate greater than his 6 percent ownership.
To harness this leverage angle, lock Ekeler into the captain slot and run the optimizer. See what types of rosters are returned. My personal favorite from the list of returned rosters with Ekeler at captain includes Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Ferguson, Cameron Dicker (the kicker), and Gallup.
As you can see, both variant players that were present on the initial run (Gallup and Ferguson) are still present on this roster but the combinatorial ownership of the roster as a whole is far less with Ekeler at captain, meaning we’re fighting with fewer rosters at the top (and potentially would be splitting first place with fewer rosters should it hit!).
This was an exercise in the marriage of theoretics and analytics, using our knowledge of game theory to influence the Contrarian Edge Optimizer’s process only slightly. There are clearly other theoretical angles to play on this slate, which you can use to build a +EV portfolio on a single-game slate.
Check out our Studs and Duds from NFL's Week 6
When my son was born this past summer, I could picture football season with him. There’s something special about seeing him in his football outfits and imagining the bond we might have over the game.
This past weekend, my biggest fantasy rival in my home leagues welcomed his family’s first child, also. This guy just can’t stop copying me. Wants to be as good at fantasy football as me. I have a kid, he has a kid. Can you believe this dude?
My rival also happens to be one of my best friends in the world and I know he’ll try to establish that same football bond with his daughter. Maybe one day my son and his daughter will be in their own leagues, making their own trades and agonizing over waiver wire decisions.
It’s yet another cool thing about this silly game we play. We all want to win, but we can’t forget about the fun we have with the people in our leagues. The most important thing in this, however, is that if my son and my buddy’s daughter are in a league together, the tradition of my family dominating his in fantasy sports will continue!
And with that, let’s recap Week 6!
I’ve said this in different ways before, but it bears repeating: I try to highlight different players every week here. There are plenty of obvious studs out there, but I only want to highlight them when they go nuclear. Do you need to hear Tyreek Hill is good every week?
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So are the Dolphins. So is Raheem Mostert, who put to bed any doubts about the running game with De’Von Achane on IR. You probably can’t get Mostert but think about getting Jeff Wilson Jr. if he’s around because it seems like it doesn’t matter who’s running the ball in Miami, they’ve got a chance to score.
Kyren Williams had four yards at halftime. He had 158 at the end of the game. Sean McVay decided he was going to try and run the Cardinals defense into the ground and Williams obliged. When it wasn’t Kyren, it was Cooper Kupp, who’s as close to automatic as it gets.
The downside, at least for this game, was there was virtually no Puka Nacua. If Rams go run heavy, it could be sad days ahead for the Puka backers. Hopefully Williams’ ankle injury isn’t a bad one.
Is Jared Goff an MVP candidate? He’s a top-10 fantasy QB so far while directing traffic for the Lions offense. He could set personal records for yards and touchdowns. It helps to have Amon-Ra St. Brown, who didn’t miss a beat after being out last week. David Montgomery left the game, which may have forced the Lions to rely more on their passing game, but it looks like Goff and co. can handle the load.
Many people, including me, wondered if Derrick Henry didn’t have it anymore. Well, what better place for a King to adjust his crown than in England? Henry looked fast and powerful on his bigger runs through the Baltimore defense and gave fantasy owners reason to relax.
Ok, that’s two 300-plus passing yard games in a row from Desmond Ridder in Atlanta. Drake London turned in his first 100-plus yard day of the season. That’s the good news. Ridder still threw three picks and London couldn’t find the end zone. It feels like the Atlanta offense will always make me think it could be better. But, hey, at least Kyle Pitts scored.
Without Miles Sanders, Chubba Hubbard was … serviceable! They gave it to him 19 times and he had just under 90 yards and a touchdown. You’ll take that every time. The not fun part: 1 target.
It’s clear that Michael Pittman is Gardner Minshew’s favorite target. He had 14 targets on his way to a 9-grab, 100-plus yard day. Minshew loves targeting this guy and he might be the QB for the rest of the year if Anthony Richardson gets season ending surgery. Hope you have Pittman in PPR formats!
This might be a cop-out, but I’ll just say the injury bug can GTFO of here and in a hurry! The blue medical tent was a who’s who of NFL talent -- Christian McCaffrey, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Deebo Samuel … and those are just some of the names! Let’s hope they recover quickly.
Now for the players that stayed healthy. Losing CMC obviously hurt the 49ers, but Brock Purdy didn’t step up when needed. He also had nothing going with one of last weekend’s studs: George Kittle. You can’t tell me San Francisco fell apart by losing one guy.
Speaking of losing, the Philadelphia Eagles lost to the New York Jets! Hurts had three interceptions and an un-Hurts-like game, but you got a rushing and a passing touchdown. DeVonta Smith turned in another subpar game, but it wasn’t for lack of opportunity -- 11 targets should give Smith owners reassurance that better days are ahead.
I’ll also throw the Buccaneers QB/WR duo on here. Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans got nothing going against the Lions. The early bye might have helped the Bucs get a little more healthy, but it certainly did not look like they did a lot of game planning on the week off.
Captain and flex options for SNF game
We've made it to another Sunday night! After an action-packed day, we cap off another wild weekend with what might be the most lopsided matchup we've seen to this point in 2023. The struggling New York Giants will travel to Buffalo to take on Josh Allen and the Bills for Sunday Night Football.
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The injury report for the Giants reads like a novel. Jones is out and Tyrod Taylor will start in his place. Superstar running back Saquon Barkley is questionable, but he participated in practice all week. If he is active, he’ll likely be limited. The biggest issue for the Giants is their offensive line is in complete shambles. They’re in for a long night.
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Allen is not surprisingly projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate over at DraftKings in over 32% of lineups. Diggs projected to Captain 29% of lineups. The next closest projected is the Bills defense at 8.4%.
Regarding flex positions, it's projected to be much more balanced. In Showdown lineups, Taylor is expected to be appear in over 44% of lineups. Cook is projected to be in 27%
The current Vegas total is down to 43.5 points. Each offense plays at a slower than average neutral pace, but we can expect the Bills offense to be on the field much more.
Unfortunately, we must endure the Giants on primetime again but it’s a great opportunity to make this game fun to win some money with our Showdown lineup! The Bills are returning home from their trip to London, and they will be eager to get back on track.
The intriguing story is Brian Daboll returning to face his former team and the quarterback he coached up so well, Josh Allen. According to DVOA, Buffalo is the best 3-2 team of all time. Allen and the Bills are poised to destroy the G-Men.
Stefon Diggs, WR, $18,300
The Optimizer is suggesting placing Diggs in your Captain slot. He is projected to appear in 28.6% of lineups as the captain so it doesn’t necessarily give you an edge, but Diggs should once again dominate. Under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, the Giants play man-to-man at the fourth-highest rate and are dead last in QB pressures.
Allen is third in yards per attempt and passing grade. Adoree Jackson and rookie Deonte Banks will be tasked in slowing down Diggs. They won’t be able to.
James Cook, RB, $13,800
By rostering Cook in your Captain slot you can likely get Allen and Diggs also in your lineups. Cook hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire but a breakout performance is looming. We all expect Buffalo to get out to an early lead.
The Giants have been the third-most favorable matchups for running backs in RushEPA. New York has allowed over 5 yards per carry and the second-most rushing yards overall. Despite a terrible stat line in Week 5, Cook played on 62% of the snaps. I love the spot to let James cook!
Bills Defense/Special Teams $6,600
We can’t put any trust in any Giant. Waller finally had a solid game in Week 5 and the Bills are without stud linebacker Matt Milano. This could hurt Buffalo defending opposing tight ends as we move further into the season, but Taylor is not instilling fear Sunday night.
The Bills defense brings the 10th best pressure rate into Week 6 and that’s with Von Miller only playing 20 snaps so far this season. The Bills defense has suffered a few significant season-ending injuries, but their defensive line is as strong as ever.
This is a “revenge game” for Taylor, but the current state of the Giants offensive line makes this a smash spot for the Bills defense!
The Bills will crush the Giants. I’m a Giants fan and have zero faith in this team. They are the worst team in the NFL. The injuries are simply too much for them to handle. Buffalo is upset after their loss in London and will look to finish this one early. The one saving grace for the Giants might be the fact that the Bills loved Daboll and likely won’t try to embarrass him too much on national TV.
Final Score: Bills 38, Giants 6
Fantasy Football Experts Stu (Montone) Durst, and Terrell Furman review all the NFL Week 8 games, give you all the Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 9 and recap the Monday Night Football Game between the Raiders and the Lions. Check the Fantasy Fire and Ice Podcast daily for injury updates, breaking NFL news, and player profiles.
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