Cody ranks the quarterbacks for Week 4
This week might not draw a C.J. Stroud call like Week 3 did. He was ranked 25th by the Expert Consensus Rankings at FantasyPros, and he finished as QB13.
Meanwhile, if you tuned into Sportstopia last week, we had Stroud positioned at No. 8 in the rankings and marked as a must-play.
Jordan Love is currently the QB4 in Fantasy this season, despite continually being ignored by the consensus. His early Week 4 ranking for Thursday Night Football is QB18 in a matchup against the Detroit Lions in primetime. I have Love as the QB9 in this juicy divisional matchup, with Packers wice receiver Christian Watson projected to return, per interview with Watson.
Terrell looks at the top choices for the Week 4 lines
“Last week I took an L, but this week I bounce back” – Detroit Lions (Week 3, 2023)
My Week 3 article went 2-1 as the Lions handled business against the Falcons 20-6. The Patriots and the Jets cleared our under-37 bet as they combined for 25 total points. However, I deserved the lone loss by fading Patrick Mahomes. I knew I would regret it and I did as the Bears did not even show up in Arrowhead
Let’s evaluate a few lines for Week 4, shall we?
Well, well, well — we have another ‘Close Your Eyes Special’! Sam Howell had by far his worst game as starting quarterback of the Commanders in Week 3, throwing four (ugly) interceptions as the Buffalo Bills won 37-3.
The Commanders were catching 5.5 points at kickoff meaning they underperformed the spread by 21+ points. Now they are 8.5-point underdogs to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Aside from the ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ being 2-0 SU/ATS to start the season, there are a couple of reasons to like the Commanders. Starting at the top, Coach Ron Rivera is 55-42-2 (56.7%) as an underdog in his career — 33-25-1 on the road (56.9%). Digging deeper, Rivera is 15-9-1 when his team is an underdog of seven or more points.
The Commanders did get a win outright on the road versus this Eagles team in 2022. They controlled time of possession and created a lot of turnovers, and I think that can still be a good recipe for success this week. While the jury is still out on Howell, it will be hard to replicate the bad game he had against Buffalo.
I’m adding another divisional under this week. And once again, I have the lowest total on the board. This series has gone under in four of the last five of their regular-season matchups. The Saints have gone under in all three of their games this season. TB is 2-1 to the under.
The Bucs turned the ball over twice versus the Eagles on Monday after not having a single turnover in their first two games. After a really good outing versus the Chicago Bears, this Bucs offense looked to revert to where expectations were at the beginning of the season as they only could produce 174 yards of offense.
The Saints’ defense hasn’t given up more than 18 points. Derek Carr went down versus the Green Bay Packers with a shoulder injury and is expected to miss this game. Jameis Winston came in and looked okay, but the offense was shut out in the fourth quarter as they blew a 17-0 lead. I do like Winston to get the win in a revenge game at home, but I could not resist the total. I expect to see something similar to the Patriots/Jets from last week.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals got the monkey off their back with their first win of the season on Monday Night Football versus the Los Angeles Rams. But it was visibly apparent that Burrow was still bothered by that calf injury he suffered in training camp.
The Titans, on the other hand, were just a half a point away from being a ‘close your eyes special’ this week. They got handed by the Cleveland Browns 27-3. The Browns defense was dominate giving up only 94 yards of offense.
The Titans problem is that Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz believes his DBs are so good, he might stack the box versus Derrick Henry and dared Ryan Tannehill to beat him. Unfortunately, the Bengals do not have that luxury, so I expect to see a more effective Henry.
The Titans' defense is still legit as well. Despite the loss they added five more sacks to their season total. With Burrow being compromised, I expect to see a better defensive effort from the Titans and the offense to do what they do best—run Henry. Mike Vrabel is 10-6 ATS as a home dog in his career, look for the Titans to win outright.
Simon goes through the waiver wire for Week 4
It’s a mad rush on the waiver wire for rookie running back De’Von Achane this week after his 51.3-point fantasy performance in Week 3. While Achane highlights this week’s waiver wire group, he’s not the only player worth adding. Let’s navigate who should make the cut and who should be left on the wire for your leaguemates.
I’ll be adding something new in this week’s column called “Luxury Adds.” These players are for fantasy managers who find themselves with an extra bench slot. You likely won’t want to start these players right away, for a multitude of different reasons, but they have some sort of upside that makes them worth holding on your team before their value (potentially) skyrockets.
Quentin Johnston (51% Rostered), Joshua Palmer (5% Rostered)
While Mike Williams has been second fiddle to Keenan Allen, there has been plenty to go around in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s Charger offense. Quentin Johnston is the preferred pickup, if only because Joshua Palmer is who Joshua Palmer is. The 60+ yards and a scare is Palmer’s ceiling, and Williams being out for the season doesn’t do much to his role.
Johnston profiles as the big bodied wide receiver to step into the Williams role. We haven’t seen the rookie do much with his limited opportunities, but rookie wide receivers, especially ones behind such established veterans as Allen and Williams, can require something external (like an injury) to present an opportunity.
Tank Dell (48% Rostered)
The Texans rookie is back in the column after his best fantasy outing coming off a week where rookie QB CJ Stroud was in an “arm management plan.” Even with the pass volume dropping significantly in Week 3 – from 47 attempts in Week 2 to 30 in Week 3 – Dell still had five receptions for 145 yards and a touchdown on seven targets.
This makes two games in a row where Dell has out-targeted all other Texan receivers. He’s establishing himself as the preferred target for a young quarterback in the midst of a breakout rookie campaign. Add Dell now or your league mates surely will.
Adam Thielen (58% Rostered)
After a dismal Week 1, Thielen has found himself a role in this Panthers’ offense. Thielen has seen 14 and nine9 targets in his last two games respectively and has turned it into fantasy production, finishing as the PPR WR3 in Week 3. While I don’t have much confidence in an aging Thielen, I also don’t have much confidence in Terrace Marshall, Jonathan Mingo, or Laviska Shenault.
If Thielen can threaten double-digit targets in a week, he’s worth picking up. Don’t expect what we saw from him in Week 3, but WR3 numbers aren’t out of the question.
Zay Jones (52% Rostered)
After missing Week 3 with an injury, Jones returns to the column. While Christian Kirk has looked great in his absence, let’s not forget what this depth chart looked like throughout preseason and Week 1. Jones looked like a focal point in preseason and out snapped Kirk in Week 1. While that is a limited sample size, it’s significant enough to warrant adding Jones before he’s back from injury.
Luxury Adds
De’Von Achane (46% Rostered)
We’re three weeks into the season and Achane is the RB7 after only scoring a combined 1.9 fantasy points in the first two weeks. There are rookie breakouts and then there’s what we watched happen this weekend.
Achane turned 18 carries into 203 rushing yards and looked explosive. He also turned four targets into four receptions for 30 yards. That alone would have been a great breakout for Achane, but he also scored four touchdowns – two through the air and two on the ground.
It’s not often a player this explosive, with this much opportunity, on an offense this good is sitting on the waiver wire. Blow your FAAB and add Achane now. While we can’t call for 50-point performances every week (or anywhere close), the talent and opportunity line up perfectly for a great fantasy season.
Roschon Johnson (59% Rostered)
Roschon is back in the column and that’s because he’s good and the Bears have been such a dumpster fire that it’s gone unnoticed by quite a few. Roschon’s Week 3 was uninspiring, but he also faced a negative game script after going down big early to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Bears are struggling, and Johnson has been one of the few bright spots. I don’t expect him to be handed the job from Khalil Herbert, but as the season progresses Johnson should take over as the primary back. He’s the better playmaker and the Bears desperately need playmakers.
Ezekiel Elliot (51% Rostered)
Zeke’s demise was greatly exaggerated. For all of the Tony Pollard truthers out there dancing on the grave of Zeke’s fantasy value after Week 2, it’s time to reevaluate. While Rhamondre will be the primary back for the Steelers, Zeke carried the ball 16 times against the Jets this weekend and was more efficient with his carries than Stevenson.
This will be a split backfield but Zeke still has some juice left and the Patriots look willing to give him the touches.
Luxury Adds
Jake Ferguson (34% Rostered)
Cowboys Nation is in shambles after their shocking loss to the “Tanking for Caleb” Cardinals. On the bright side, Cowboys fans should be excited about the emergence of second-year TE Jake Ferguson establishing rapport with Dak Prescott.
Ferguson has seen 7 targets in two of three games this season. At a position as volatile as tight end, that volume is enough to make Ferguson startable most weeks. But maybe not this week, however – he’s got a killer matchup against a Patriots team that has been shutting down TEs.
Luke Musgrave (24% Rostered)
After a promising start for a rookie tight end through the first two weeks, we saw it come together a bit more for Ferguson on Sunday. Musgrave hauled in 6 of his 8 targets for 49 yards, good for 10.90 PPR fantasy points.
After being the lead target in week 3 for Jordan Love, Musgrave appears to be establishing himself as a weekly starter at the position. It will likely take more time for Musgrave and Love to further develop that connection we’re seeing, but this much early production from a rookie tight end is a great sign.
Luxury Adds
He did it again, even with a so-called “arm management plan,” and is looking like the best rookie QB thus far. With Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Robert Woods all showing up as weapons for Stroud, expect the 20-plus point performances to continue.
High passing volume, expected negative game scripts, and all the talent in the world. What more do you want?
Russell Wilson (52% Rostered)
While the Broncos may be even worse under Sean Payton than they were with Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson has quietly put together a solid first three weeks.
This offense will likely continue to struggle, but Wilson has put up back-to-back 300-yard performances. If you’re looking for a fill-in QB for Week 4, Wilson is currently a top 10 QB likely sitting on your waiver wire.
Luxury Adds
Jameis Winston (2% Rostered)
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Learn the Contrarian Edge Optimizer's true power
An optimizer is a powerful tool to harness in DFS play, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. Like any other tool, one must first learn how to wield an optimizer before its true power can be realized.
That is exactly what we will look to sort through in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Contrarian Edge Optimizer use at Fantasy Sports Logic for the Monday slates each week of the 2023 season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the newest, and most dynamic, optimizer in the industry.
Most of the articles in this series will cover Showdown slates while we explore Monday Night Football slates. This week, however, we have a Monday Night Football doubleheader on the docket – Eagles at Buccaneers and Rams at Bengals – that will allow us to explore more of the full range of tools at our disposal through the Contrarian Edge Optimizer.
Open the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, select the slate for which you want to build, and run the optimizer. Don’t touch a single thing. Now analyze the rosters that are provided. The first roster that is generated through the blended methodologies for the Monday slate includes Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Joe Mixon, Chris Godwin, Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Evans, Cade Otton, Puka Nacua, and the Bengals defense.
This practice will allow you to get a feel for the various projections from around the industry in addition to seeing how those pieces fit together optimally on a single roster.
In other words, simply running the optimizer without manipulating inputs gives insight into expected field tendencies, how salaries fit together on a roster, and the strongest median projection for a give slate.
Now, remove Joe Burrow from the player pool, apply a 20 percent decrease to Bengals skill position players, add Jake Browning to the player pool, and run it again. You can now visualize how the status of Joe Burrow might influence the median outcomes from the slate ahead.
You can even go as far as excluding the Bengals entirely, providing a boost to the Rams defense, and running it again. That returns a roster of Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, Mike Evans, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Cade Otton, Chris Godwin, and the Eagles defense. As you can see, the return is vastly different than the original roster returned.
There are certain aspects of profitable DFS play that professionals utilize at a higher rate than the field. The reasons for these practices have to do with historical hit rates versus utilization rate from the field.
A few examples of these practices include team over-stacks, QB-RB-TE correlations, and onslaught rosters (rosters with three to four players from one roster and zero or one from the opposing side).
These practices build inherent leverage in rosters as they historically hit at a rate higher than they are utilized by the field.
• Over 70 percent of the optimal rosters over the previous three seasons did not include a correlated bring-back.
• 22 percent of the optimal rosters over the previous three seasons included a QB-TE correlation.
• 18 percent of the optimal rosters over the previous three seasons included the primary stack’s running back.
And yet, the field is not utilizing these practices at those historical hit rates.
To influence the algorithm in those ways, select “Pro Options,” toggle “Auto Team Stacking Bonus” and “By Position,” bump “QB-TE,” “QB-WR,” and “QB-RB,” and generate lineups. You’ll see the algorithm now account for heavier correlation amongst quarterbacks, tight ends, wide receivers, and their running backs, which provides the leverage we are looking for through these DFS Theory methodologies.
The algorithm now returns Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Tyler Higbee rosters. As you can see, all the previously mentioned DFS Theory practices are being accounted for by the Contrarian Edge Optimizer.
Feeling higher or lower about a player than the field and want to overweight or exclude them from your pool? Simply select the “lock” button or “exclude” (red circle with line through) button next to a player’s name and run the optimizer again.
As an example, in the Sunday Night Football game, the Pittsburgh Steelers had only four healthy wide receivers and it was clear that Allen Robinson would be largely confined to slot snaps, leaving Calvin Austin to play most of the offensive snaps on the perimeter alongside George Pickens.
I locked Austin into every roster and ran the optimizer. Similarly, amidst poor efficiency and growing concerns of Jaylen Warren’s increased involvement, I excluded Najee Harris from my player pool.
As you can see, the Contrarian Edge Optimizer is an invaluable tool to building bulk rosters for DFS play. To best harness its abilities, we must first have a working knowledge of the varying options to utilize as inputs in addition to a theoretical and conceptual working knowledge of the game of NFL DFS. This article series will attempt to further our understanding in both those areas throughout the season.
The players who starred and sputtered in Week 3
If you’re reading this, I can only assume you’re a Swiftie and you want to see how many Taylor Swift lyrical puns I can plug into my NFL recap article. Well, I’m telling you right now you need to calm down because It’s karma that I didn’t Google anything about Taylor Swift for this article.
All I did was look at my underperforming fantasy teams, shake it off, identified my anti-hero, and realized I now have bad blood with players like Joshua Kelley.
And now, something y’all know all too well, the weekly recap!
Is 10 touchdowns a lot? I think 10 touchdowns is a lot of touchdowns but let me confirm. They were 3 points shy of the all-time NFL record for points in a game and scored the most points in a game since 1966. I guess 10 touchdowns is pretty good.
We wrote about Raheem Mostert (MustStart) last week, and he didn’t disappoint -- 142 total yards and four touchdowns will make you look like a genius. But he was overshadowed by rookie running mate De’Von Achane, who racked up 203 on the ground and another 30 through the air on his way to his own four touchdowns.
The offense can handle both players and that’s obvious, so feel free to throw some trades out there. Oh, by the way, Tua Tagovailoa passed for 309 and four touchdowns with Tyreek Hill adding in 157 yards and a touchdown. They didn’t even have Jaylen Waddle! Invest in this offense and feel good about it going forward.
Keenan Allen made our recap last week and he kept rolling. Maybe he was mad we called him old? 18 grabs on 20 targets and he even chipped in a trick play passing touchdown to Mike Williams.
The offense was looking like it finally figured it out under new OC Kellen Moore, but now Williams looks like he’s lost for the season. Justin Herbert and Allen should continue to feast, but if you need another option in the offense, maybe look to add Quentin Johnston or Joshua Palmer.
Davante Adams is the NFL equipment to the Ol’ Reliable SpongeBob meme. Jimmy G went to him early and often Sunday night and it was the performance we’re used to from one of the NFL’s best. We should see it all season for a Vegas team that isn’t replicating Josh Jacobs’ success last year in the ground game and a leaky defense.
Here’s a non-fantasy tip if you’re a gambler: some books offer “player to catch a pass on this drive” props during primetime games. Some offered Adams at plus money. Some of them got lit up. Adams plays his old team Green Bay in week 5 on Monday Night Football. Keep an eye on it.
I wrote off Adam Thielen. He disappointed for the Viking last year and went to a rebuilding Carolina Panthers team. He basically pulled an Undertaker gif in real life this weekend with 11 grabs for 145 yards and a touchdown. Will it continue? I think it would be smart to keep the same formula when Bryce Young returns from injury, but in the meantime, his connection with Andy Dalton is clear.
Seattle turned to Kenneth Walker III when they needed him. He got the carries around the goal line and scored 2 touchdowns. It’s a good sign for those worried about Zach Charbonnet grabbing work from him especially where it counts. Charbonnet carried it nine times to K9’s 18, but it looks like Walker will be the guy the Seahawks (and fantasy owners) turn to when they need it most.
Nico Collins walked last week so Tank Dell could run. Or Collins ran last week so Dell could also run, but faster? I haven’t worked out the exact details yet but there’s something there, just like there’s something there for a surprising Texans passing attack. It’ll be tough to decide who will be the alpha between Collins and Dell each week, but both will have their chances. That also means C.J. Stroud might be worth a look in your DFS lineups or, at the very least, he’ll be an enticing option in some of your season long matchups.
Zack Moss? Zack Moss. That’s two weeks in a row where he’s looked good for the Colts -- 122 yards on the ground and a receiving touchdown has me intrigued. Mostly because it looks like he can chip in no matter who is at quarterback.
Lamar Jackson has been a stud, that’s not news. But the Ravens are so banged up they need him to be the MVP. It’s probably not the strategy they hoped for, but hero ball Lamar isn’t the worst strategy in the world. It might be tough to find passing touchdowns some weeks, but his legs will keep Baltimore, and fantasy owners, in the game weekly.
Sam LaPorta is putting together a historic season so far -- 18 catches through three games, the most ever for a rookie tight end. Detroit believes in him as their second option in the offense. LaPorta is a weekly plug and play TE1.
The Browns didn’t get many people excited through two weeks. A Week 1 slugfest in the rain followed by a devastating injury to Nick Chubb had me questioning what team would come out of Cleveland.
Deshaun Watson had to step up sans Chubb, and he did this week, throwing for 289 yards and two touchdowns while clicking with Amari Cooper (116 and 1 touchdown). It had me thinking about the Texans Deshaun from a few years ago.
The caution is Jerome Ford, who turned in only 18 yards on the ground and 33 through the air. The two touchdowns he had looked good, but I’m not sold on him being the replacement for Chubb.
It's dud time, and Broncos country, let’s ride! Losing by 50 to the Dolphins is bad, and I’m sorry if you had the Broncos defense for some reason. I will say Russell Wilson hasn’t looked bad the past two weeks with over 300 yards each game while his defense was getting torched. The rushing offense has also been a dud. Sean Payton’s Mile High Era isn’t going as planned so far.
The Jets running back situation is a nightmare. The Jets are pretty much a nightmare. The Aaron Rodgers injury situation is dragging the team down with an anchor by the name of Zach Wilson. I’m not confident in any Jet in my lineup.
Daniel Jones caps things off. A 5-point fantasy game, a 35-point fantasy game, a 5-point fantasy game. That’s the Daniel Jones experience, or more so the Giants experience. Yes, two of those games were against formidable defenses in Dallas and San Francisco, but even the rushing wasn’t there.
Which Jones are you going to get weekly? Who knows! Will it be fun? It won’t! The Seahawks are next so hope for the best.
Cody re-ranks the running backs for Week 3
Brian Robinson is being used in a full-blown bell cow role for the 2-0 Washington Commanders. He's fourth in the NFL with 37 rush attempts, eighth in rushing yards, and No. 1 in first downs gained with 13. Most importantly, Robinson is out-carrying counterpart Antonio Gibson 37 to five.
Only three running backs have finished with 19.9+ fantasy points in both Week 1 and Week 2:
Ken Walker sees himself in the top five this week for the first time in 2023. He has a stranglehold on the Seahawks backfield with a 62% snap share, and a 73% opportunity share, despite a slow start to the season that had us assuming Seattle would push rookie Zach Charbonnet into the lineup more.
Walker finished as RB14 in Week 2, during a tough game script. In Week 3, the Carolina Panthers come to town after allowing a combined 254 rushing yards to the Falcons and Saints during the first two weeks.
Check out great value plays for Week 3 of the NFL
We had a very good week in last week’s article. Geno Smith finished as the QB8! Rachaad White finished as the RB8! And Josh Reynolds finished as the WR9! White was in the winning million-dollar lineup on DraftKings. Once again, I used our Fantasy Sports Contrarian Optimizer to help me extract more from player being undervalued in DFS. Here is who I am on this week:
This week is slightly more difficult. A lot of big-name quarterbacks have great matchups. But, if you did not know, I am a degenerate. So, we are going low price, high reward and look no other than your QB13 last week in Stroud.
Regardless of the outcome of the game, fantasy points are fantasy points. And Stroud was garbage time king last week, finishing with 384 passing yards and two touchdowns. Despite getting rolled by the Colts, Stroud showed me enough to look at him again this week.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, for whatever reason, struggle with the Texans. They’ve lost five straight home games to them. Now, they have the Texans in a clear lookahead spot to a long road trip to London for the next two weeks.
And the Jags have given up the ninth most passing yards in the league, and they are giving up the fourth most fantasy points to QBs on DraftKings and the fifth most on FanDuel. Stroud may or may not have it in him to will this team to a win, but this sets up well to have a really good fantasy day.
I mentioned it last week. De’Andre Swift gashed this Minnesota Vikings defense in Week 2. This seemed like an amazing opportunity to be able to hop on the fade Minnesota run defense train.
This is the highest total of Week 3, so there could be a lot of fantasy points. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler has been ruled out another week and even he said the Joshua Kelley breakout is coming. Many Justin Herbert stacks are going to include his cadre of talented receivers, but if you want to go contrarian, then a cheap option in Kelley is it.
The Vikings have allowed the second most rushing yards to running backs, excluding the New York Giants who played their Week 3 game already. While I do expect the receivers to carry the Chargers down the field, Kelley leads the team in red zone opportunities. The optimizer likes the opportunity for Kelley to score at least two TDs, thanks to big plays.
We said it last week. Say it again for me: GAME STACK!! Did you see me point out that this game has the highest total on the board? Here is the reason why.
The Los Angeles Chargers – even despite the Giants and 49ers having played an extra game already -- lead the NFL in giving up receiving yards to WRs, and by far giving up the most fantasy points to the position.
All Vikings stacks will have Justin Jefferson (of course) and Jordan Addison. Addison has scored in his first two NFL games — he’s clear cut the WR2 right? Not so fast. K.J. Osborn is out snapping Addison and receiving more targets and more redzone targets.
The Osborn breakout is coming, and this could be the week with Jefferson and Addison clearly getting all the attention by the Chargers defense. The optimizer has Osborn as a cheap wide receiver option in this big game.
We have a Taysom Hill sighting for Week 3. As somebody who punted TE in season-long fantasy, I stream tight end every week, so I am always looking for cheap options.
With Saints RBs Alvin Kamara suspended for one more week and Jamaal Williams out with injury, Hill got a good amount of work as a running back last week. He has always been a utility player for the Saints. Do I think he is going to continue to pace them in carries? Absolutely not.
But the goal line is where the Saints get very creative with Hill. They line him up at tight end, running back, and quarterback when they get in close. Without their bruiser on the goal line, I am hoping for a couple short TDs, as it seems he has a big game every season.
TV breaks down the Steelers-Raiders showdown
We’ve made it to Sunday night! After an action-packed day, we cap off a wild weekend with an AFC battle. Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Las Vegas to take on Davante Adams and the Raiders for Sunday Night Football.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:20 pm ET
Betting Odds (DraftKings)
Raiders
Steelers
Raiders
Steelers
It should be noted that Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers has been dealing with a concussion but has practiced fully, which is a good sign he will be cleared to play on Sunday night. The other major injury note is the Steelers defensive line will be without standout defensive tackle Cam Heyward for about two months, leaving a massive hole up the middle in their defense.
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Davante Adams is projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate over at DraftKings. Adams is the highest projected owned overall in over 55 percent of lineups, including the flex. There are not many surprises expected when it comes to ownership for Showdown lineups.
Typically, a quarterback will be the most expensive option, but sometimes, when Davante Adams is on the field, he gets the nod as the priciest option. The Steelers defense has allowed the 11th-most yards to receivers through the first two weeks. Adams is a target and touchdown scoring machine. Slot receiver Jakobi Meyers should return to the field after missing Week 2, and this will only benefit Adams.
The quarterback battle between veteran Jimmy Garoppolo and second-year man Kenny Pickett is intriguing. Jimmy G will make his first start at home as a member of the Raiders. Pickett has struggled in his first two starts, but he’s faced arguably two top-five defenses. On paper, the Raider defense should allow Pickett and the Steeler offense to get back on track.
The Steelers offense features two running backs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. It’s difficult to trust and assess which guy will have the greater impact on Sunday night. Warren appears to be more explosive, but his 47 snaps trails Harris (62 snaps). Warren is second on the Steelers in targets with 12.
There’s not much to note regarding the tight ends in this one as the Steelers are a top defense defending tight ends, and Pat Freiermuth is off to a slow start this season. His target share has gone from 18% last season down to just 7% through the first two weeks of the season.
George Pickens, Steelers WR, $13,800 - Captain Slot
Pickens has a chance to go bonkers. The Raider defense has allowed a league-high completion rate and the second-highest passing touchdown rate. The Raiders have also allowed a league-high 84% catch rate to wide receivers.
The second-year wide receiver led Pittsburgh with a massive 34.5% target share in the Week 2 win and scored a long touchdown. At 6-foot-3, he has the catch radius that quarterbacks love throwing to. Pickett recently said, “I’m going to put in in his zip code, and he’ll do the rest. That’s kind of been the MO here since I’ve started, so he’s an unbelievable player. Just continue to put the ball, throw it his way, and let him do the rest.”
The Pickett-to-Pickens connection will be on full display Sunday night. If the Raiders choose to double him with safety help, the next two receiving options will play a major role. My favorite and the Contrarian Edge Optimizer’s favorite of the next is Allen Robinson.
Allen Robinson $5,000
With Diontae Johnson out for at least two more weeks, Robinson will continue to see increased work. As WR3 coming into the season, he has been thrust into a full-time role.
Pickens is the truth and future, but the veteran Robinson actually played the most snaps of any Steeler skill position player in Week 2. He had a poor game, but that’s mostly due to the Browns strength in the secondary. In Week 1, he reeled in 5 of 8 targets for 64 yards.
We can expect similar production this week, and if he somehow finds the endzone, it will be even sweeter.
Calvin Austin $4,200
Austin is in a similar boat as Robinson. It’s likely Pickens will lead the Steelers in receiving Sunday night, but one of these two will also play a major role. Austin played 6 fewer snaps than Robinson and 5 fewer than Pickens last week. Expect similar snap counts for the trio and at least two of these guys to produce respectable numbers, with a chance of one leading the scoring.
Prediction
Both teams are 1-1. It’s surprising to see the Raiders favored, as many had the Steelers as a playoff contender in the AFC. Both offenses have struggled, but they have faced tough defenses. Each side has playmakers, and both defenses have struggled. This should be a big night for Josh Jacobs against a bad Pittsburgh run defense, but in the end, I expect Kenny Pickett and George Pickens to connect on big plays that will be enough to squeak out a win.
Final Score: Steelers 24, Raiders 23
Fantasy Football Experts Stu (Montone) Durst, and Terrell Furman review all the NFL Week 8 games, give you all the Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 9 and recap the Monday Night Football Game between the Raiders and the Lions. Check the Fantasy Fire and Ice Podcast daily for injury updates, breaking NFL news, and player profiles.
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