Yes, it’s true -- Fantasy Sports Logic and the Contrarian Edge Optimizer won first place in the DraftKings Million Dollar to the Winner grand prize. We’ll get to that, but first my intro:
My name is R.C. Fischer, and I am a decade-plus-long football scout and Fantasy writer/player (and bettor) of football things for Fantasy Football Metrics.com, and I watch football games for a living. I am a fan of no NFL team, except the one I may have bet on. I review and study game tape for personal profit (or loss) in DFS and handicapping/props.
I watch the TNF games (and every NFL game) live, then watch it again on tape for scouting Fantasy/DFS and future betting (player props) purposes. And like a restaurant or movie critic, I’m here to report my critiques of this nationally televised game -- pro and con.
Here is the best and worst of TNF Week 3, Giants at 49ers:
Best: Fantasy Sports Logic wins DraftKings $1M Contest!
Seriously! No joke. 176,470 entries with a $2.25M prize pool and $1 million to the winner.
One of the FSL Optimizer’s entries won it. Holy cow!
Worst: It Was a First-Place Tie … with 124 Others!
The $1M prize got shredded into $10K-plus payouts. I’ve never hated 124 other random strangers so much before in all my life. But it’s a great DFS Optimizer and football theory/scouting effort accomplishment for the young company nonetheless -- and all kidding aside, congrats to the other winners.
Real people really do win!
When you have a TNF-only DFS showdown contest, there’s going to be a lot of duplicate entry potential. There’s only so many players to pick from, so ties are very possible especially when the obvious stars shine like they did in this game. But you also have to hook the right sleeper plays with them and FSL did.
A win is a win.
Best: Deebo Leads the Way
On the FSL Podcast for this TNF DFS preview (check out the TNF DFS preview show every Thursday on Sportstopia), Daryl Snyder and I discussed the extra boost reasoning for Deebo this night, and he didn’t disappoint. The late dagger bomb TD catch by Deebo put him over the top as the high PPR scorer of any player, QBs included, in this game.
Having Deebo as the ‘Captain’ of the winning Showdown entry was a must, and that’s just what we did by pushing a few different entries with him as the captain because of the strategy discussions on the FSL TNF Preview Podcast (that drops every Thursday).
Worst: Daniel Dimes Is Bad Loose Change
We did have entries banking on a big Dan Dimes run game/FF scoring game. However, Jones only rushed 2 times for 5 yards with no Saquon and a great need for him to run.
Somehow NYG had the bright idea to push more run game to Gary Brightwell for some reason. He too ran for five yards on four carries.
Best: Ronnie Bell, the Million Ten-Thousand Dollar Man!
Daryl Snyder and I also discussed the scouting logic behind playing Ronnie Bell for DFS on the TNF DFS Preview Podcast earlier in the day, and we switched some other long shot names out to insert more Bell, and ‘boom’.
Bell is Brandon Aiyuk-like, and had a great training camp and preseason, he was the natural hope to fill-in for Aiyuk this game. Bell wasn’t involved in the game as much as I thought he would, but he got a TD with his two-catch, 24-yard night, and the TD was all the DFS difference.
Worst: Jalin Hyatt, the Zero Dollar Man!
I liked Ronnie Bell and Jalin Hyatt as the long shot plays in this game for various reasons, but I had more confidence/hope in a Hyatt deep ball pop/TD.
I saw Hyatt run a deep route early, that I think was designed to go to him, where he lined up next to some other NYG WR and they sprinted off deep off the snap and then ran into each other making a cut and took each other out of the play and all Daniel Jones could do was throw it away in desperation.
Hyatt ended the game with zero catches on zero targets and earned zero dollars on any DFS lineup he was in.
Best: Kittle Over Waller
Waller had more universal DFS ownership appeal for good reason -- Kittle hasn’t been lighting up the stat sheets out of the gates in 2023. But our scouting/game script projected that the 49ers defense, known TE-killers for Fantasy scoring, would squash Waller too much, and thus Kittle, who was overdue, especially without Aiyuk there, was the better TE play.
Kittle snagged a season-best 7 catches for 90 yards, while Waller got all of 3 catches (on 7 targets) for 20 yards, and Waller did not look good (going forward for FF purposes).
The whole Waller-based NYG offense concept for 2023, they may need to rethink that.
Best: A Clear NFL Game Winner
No controversies here. The better team definitely won. San Fran won the time of possession 39/21. They converted 9 of 16 third downs. They had no turnovers (13 games in a row with 0 or 1 turnover in a game). And SF outgained the Giants 441 yards to 150. The 49ers handled business.
Worst: A Clear Loser
Me.
No, it’s not because I spent 3.5 hours of my life watching this dull mercy killing of NYG, but because I spent 3.5 hours watching it as an idiot who picked NYG +10.5 -- hoping they’d stay close for a cover.
Worst: Like Any Good Bettor, It’s the Ref’s Fault I Lost!
I think there were about 19 instances (that may be exaggerated some) where the Giants held the 49ers short on a 3rd-down play but then a flag would come in and give the 49ers an extended life, thus the lopsided time of possession and final score.
The Giants were hanging in there as best they could but all the yellow flags at the absolute wrong time every time did them in from.
Worst: Don’t Remind Purdy
We’ll end on a ‘worst’ from the way this game ended.
For the final kneel downs, $4.5M QB Sam Darnold took the final snaps as Brock Purdy and his $870K payroll watched from the sidelines as he went to 11-0 in regular season and playoff games where he played the majority of the snaps or started fully.
Unbelievable.
See you for TNF Week 4, Detroit at Green Bay, where we’ll try to win the Million DFS prize all alone this time. Baby steps …
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