De'Von 'Double-Down' Achane, was out in full force during Week 4 with another dynamic performance and Top-5 fantasy finish, this time on just 11 touches. He totaled 233 yards and 4 touchdowns on 22 touches in Week 3, in what was looked at as a once in a lifetime game. He “doubled down” in Week 4 with 120 total yards and 2 touchdowns on just 11 touches.
A literal repeat performance on a per-touch basis. Going forward, it is going to be more and more difficult for Mike McDaniel and company to contain this freak of an athlete, but at just 185 pounds, they will need to utilize both Achane and Raheem Mostert to keep this efficiency flowing. Achane is a MUST-START and Top-10 option every week until further notice.
Only one running back have finished with 19.9+ fantasy points in both Week 1, 2, 3 and 4 -- Christian McCaffrey.
Alvin Kamara returned from suspension, and made up for missed time, pulling in a whopping 13 receptions on 13 targets. That places him 9th among running backs in receptions, just 6 behind the leader, Bijan Robinson. We hammered Kamara in the rankings last week, he finished exactly where we projected -- 9th.
This week the assumed return of Jonathan Taylor is held in high regard with how impressive Zack Moss has played in 2023. However, when comparing Moss’s stats to that of Taylors first 3 games in 2022, they are eerily similar.
Taylor had 5 less carries, but 6 more yards and 2 more receptions in the same span. The difference of course is this Colts offensive line has been healthy and returned to 2021 form. Taylor is a fringe RB1 this week, coming in at RB16 if he practices on Thursday and Friday.
We’ve had two consecutive entertaining Thursday Night Football games with the Chiefs/Lions and Vikings/Eagles coming down to the wire. Can we make it three in a row? The odds are stacked against this one, but weirder things have happened.
Game
San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants
Betting odds (DraftKings)
Line: 49ers - 10.5
Moneyline: 49ers: - 500, Giants +380
Over/Under: 44.5
Team ranks
49ers
Points per game: 30 (3rd)
Points allowed per game: 15 (3rd)
Lions
Points per game: 15.5 (28th)
Points allowed: 34 (32nd)
Key Injuries
Giants
Saquon Barkley: Ankle, OUT
Wan’Dale Robinson: Knee, Questionable
Without question, the biggest injury storyline in this game is the absence of Barkley after the star running back sprained his ankle late in the win over the Cardinals. The 26-year-old is a big loss in the running game but also has already received 11 targets as a checkdown for Daniel Jones.
It appears Matt Breida will be the first option for New York on Thursday with Breida going up against the team that gave him his first chance, but it seems likely the Giants will use RB-by-committee approach to replace Barkley with Gary Brightwell and potentially rookie Eric Gray.
Robinson has missed the first two games recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in 2022, but multiple outlets are reporting that the second-year player will play tonight. He had 227 yards on 23 receptions prior to the injury and should be involved in the passing attack if he plays.
49ers
Brandon Aiyuk: Shoulder, questionable
The only fantasy-relevant injury question mark for the 49ers is Aiyuk, but it’s a big one. The wideout is going to be a game-time decision due to a shoulder surgery he suffered in the win over the Rams. He played through the injury but was a non-participant in Monday’s practice and a limited one Tuesday.
Even if Aiyuk is active he may not be in for his usual line of targets -- he played 52 percent of the offensive snaps in Sunday’s victory -- and there are options that might make sense to play over him that we’ll offer later. This is called a tease, in the industry.
Big Names/Big Prices (DraftKings)
Christian McCaffrey, RB, $19,800
Daniel Jones, QB, $15,300
Brock Purdy, QB, $14,100
Deebo Samuel, WR, $13,200
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, $12,900
Darren Waller, TE, $11,100
Matt Breida, RB, $10,500
George Kittle, TE, $9,900
Usually, a quarterback is the most expensive play on a Thursday, but it’s not surprising McCaffrey is the priciest. He’s gone over 100 yards and scored a touchdown in each of the first two games, and the Giants have allowed 136.5 yards per game on the ground -- seventh worst in the NFL. Even with teams looking to stack the box against McCaffrey, it’s beyond reasonable to expect a big game anytime he’s on the field.
Jones vs. Purdy is an intriguing quarterback matchup because of their difference in style and pedigree. Jones has helped fantasy players more with his legs than as a passer (102 yards rushing with a TD, 425 yards passing 2/3 TD/INT) after receiving a massive extension in the offseason.
Purdy has completed 66.7 percent of his passes with a pair of scores a year after being the last selection of the 2022 draft and helping San Francisco reach the NFC Championship Game in his rookie season.
Jones offers the higher ceiling because of his ability to scramble, but Purdy has the higher floor because he doesn’t make mistakes and offers more weapons to get the ball to -- even if Aiyuk is unable to play.
This game also features two of the better tight end options in Waller and Kittle, but both are still looking for their first TDs. Kittle has received just nine targets and has yet to go over 30 yards.
Waller was a big part of the offense in the come-from-behind win over Arizona Sunday, however, with six receptions for 76 yards.
Both players are due for some scores -- particularly Kittle who picked up 11 touchdowns last season -- and it would be far from an upset if both players found paydirt Thursday.
Sneaky options
Jalin Hyatt, WR, NYG: $7,800
The third-round draft pick in April received only two targets against the Cardinals, but they went for 89 yards, including a 58-yarder to open the second half. The 6-foot, 195-pound wideout was drafted out of Tennessee in large part due to his big-play ability, and while there are some names ahead of him on the depth chart, it does seem likely he will be more involved with the offense going forward. A breakout game could be on the horizon.
Jauan Jennings, WR, SF: $6,600
Jennings’ value is at least partially tied into how much Aiyuk plays, if at all. After being held catchless against the Steelers, Jennings hauled in two passes for 51 yards against the Rams.
The 6-foot-3 Jennings offers a big target for Purdy and has had success when given a chance to play, and this is a friendly price point. If you’re feeling adventurous and Aiyuk doesn’t suit up, ponder Ronnie Bell. The seventh-round selection, who showed promise in the preseason, might be the third wideout in sets while offering just a $300 price point.
Eric Gray, RB, NYG: $2,100
Gray has yet to receive a carry or a target so far, so this is obviously a dart throw. The fifth-round pick out of Oklahoma in April has been doing punt returns. With Barkley out of commission and Breida along with Brightwell not exactly looking like stars in the backfield, it would make sense if New York gave Gray a look. At this price, the risk is worth it.
Prediction
On paper, this seems like a mismatch. The 49ers are one of the NFL’s best team, while the Giants got boat-raced by the Cowboys and needed an epic comeback to beat the lowly Cardinals.
The NYG will be without one of the NFL’s most electric playmakers in Barkley, and they’ll be facing the 49ers in SF’s home opener. A double-digit point spread is always scary in this sport and Thursday night games are often an adventure, but it’s impossible to pick against the favorite in this one.
There is a short schedule of MLB games Thursday, including two day games as the Rays host the Angels and the Cardinals host the Brewers. There doesn’t appear to be a marquee matchup, but there are playoff implications.
Thursday is Dodger Day. It’s easy to back LA when they face a struggling young pitcher -- Giants 22-year-old lefty Kyle Harrison. He’s allowed at least four runs in his last three starts. Betts is top five in on-base percentage and is one of two players to score a run in over 60% of games played this season.
Freddie Freeman, Dodgers 1B, 0.5 Single (Higher) – Underdog
Freddie is .344 against left-handed pitching and is tied with the fifth-most singles in MLB. He has cooled off in September by his standards, but a matchup with Harrison doesn’t scare us away.
Yandy Diaz, Rays, 1B, 7 Fantasy Points (More) – PrizePicks
Yandy has been the Rays’ most consistent hitter and is extremely underappreciated as one of MLB’s best. He has the second-best batting average at home (.354) and only Luis Arraez has a better average at home. He’s surpassed this number in five straight games at the Trop.
Hoerner has been one of my favorite picks all season. He’s up to 15th in batting average (.286) and is eighth in strikeout percentage (12.6%). He will face the Pirates’ Johan Oviedo, who’s had highs and lows this season. Hoerner is 5 for 10 against him with zero strikeouts.
As a Yankee fan, this isn’t what I want to see for Cole as he looks to lock up the AL Cy Young, but the numbers don’t lie. He has allowed at least five hits in five of his last nine starts. The Blue Jays’ project nicely against Cole with Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.357), Alejandro Kirk (.438), and George Springer (.333). We know Cole will likely give the Yankees length and a long leash means more opportunities for the Jays to rack up a few hits.
David Peterson, Mets, SP, 4.5 Hits (More) – PrizePicks
I considered going with Nick Castellanos after his 2-home run game, but instead we’ll ride with the entire Phillies lineup. I expect he will contribute, but in case he doesn’t we have plenty of other bats. Mets lefty Peterson has allowed at least six hits in three straight outings and has been smashed on the road. The Phillies have one of the best lineups hitting at home against lefties.
In the penultimate Thursday slate of the season, we have a relatively large slate with seven matchups.
Weather Report
There isn’t rain in the forecast at any of the home stadiums.
Injury Report
Max Fried - His start was pushed to Thursday after he began to develop a hotspot on his pitching hand. The team hasn’t announced if the hot spot is gone entirely so don’t be surprised if they yank him out of the game earlier than expected.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - He was scratched from Wednesday’s game with right knee discomfort and is set to undergo an MRI so the team can get a better idea of his prognosis. He is considered day-to-day until we learn more.
Everson Pereira - Everson Pereira has missed the last five games due to a low-grade hamstring strain. He has avoided the injured list so far but he would be a risky player to rely on Thursday night.
DJ Stewart - Stewart was scratched from Wednesday’s contest with a wrist injury. We should find out more about his status later in the day on Thursday.
Javier Báez - Báez has missed the past two contests with lower back tightness. There is a chance he is ready to go on Thursday.
Brandon Crawford - Crawford was removed from Wednesday’s game with right hamstring tightness. Tyler Fitzgerald is expected to be added to the active roster, so we should expect the veteran shortstop to miss some time.
Starting Pitchers
DK
FD
Gerrit Cole
$12,200
$11,500
Max Fried
$10,000
$10,600
Tarik Skubal
$9,600
$10,300
Kyle Harrison
$9,100
$8,300
Jose Berrios
$8,600
$10,800
Grayson Rodriguez
$8,100
$9,000
Ranger Suarez
$7,900
$9,300
Kyle Hendricks
$7,600
$8,400
Johan Oviedo
$7,000
$8,200
Luis Medina
$6,600
$7,000
Emmet Sheehan
$6,600
$7,200
Jake Irvin
$6,000
$7,100
David Peterson
$5,500
$7,900
Grayson Rodriguez ($8,000 DK/ $9,000 FD) The 23-year-old righthander has had a superb second half of the season and he will face the Guardians on the road Thursday. Since July 17, Rodriguez has a 2.5 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, and 16.5 K/BB ratio. His 111.1 IP this season is way above his 75 IP he pitched last season. It isn’t likely that the Orioles will cap his innings this season as they just punched their card to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Tarik Skubal The lefty has been outstanding since he returned from the injured list this summer. He has a 3.25 ERA, 2.8 SIERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 25.9 K/BB ratio over 69 1/3 innings. His fastball velocity is up around one MPH and he gets to face the Athletics in Oakland on Thursday night.
His price ($9,600 DK/ $10,300 FD) seems like a great price point for a pitcher of his caliber facing one of the worst offenses in recent memory.
Batter to Target
David Peterson has had a mostly down season this year, posting a 5.22 ERA overall but an out of the world 7.35 ERA on the road this season. The Phillies are just coming off a wild and exciting series against the Braves and Nick Castellanos ($4,800 DK/ $3,500 FD) could be looking to feast on Thursday. The 31-year-old is hitting lefties extremely well, posting a .323/.369/.557 with an impressive 1.151 OPS against southpaws at home.
Stack Attack
Giants (Kyle Harrison) vs. Dodgers
DK
FD
Freddie Freeman
$6,200
$4,300
J.D. Martinez
$5,200
$3,700
Amed Rosario
$3,700
$2,700
Kyle Harrison is expected to start for the Giants Thursday evening and while it is difficult to create a stack of Dodgers hitters, it can be done!
J.D. Martinez has been absolutely on fire since he returned from the injured list. The veteran designated hitter is hitting .395/.455/.737 with four homers and 14 RBI since September 8.
Amed Rosario doesn’t play often but he did start against the last southpaw the Dodgers faced. The 27-year-old is hitting much better against lefties, posting a .781 OPS with just a 14 percent strikeout rate.
Then there is Freddie Freeman. What is there to say? Whenever you have enough money to add Freeman to your DFS lineup, you are usually in for a good night!
Cubs vs. Pirates (Johan Oviedo)
DK
FD
Nico Hoerner
$5,700
$3,400
Ian Happ
$4,700
$3,200
Seiya Suzuki
$4,400
$3,100
Johan Oviedo has had an interesting season. It seems he either does really well (complete game shutout vs Kansas City on August 28) or very bad (3 2/3 IP with five hits and three earned runs against the Cardinals on September 3.
The Cubs have been on a bit of a skid as they look to lock down a spot in the playoffs. Nico Hoerner has had a bit of a breakout season this year, hitting .286/.346/.30 with nine home runs and 41 stolen bases.
It will be a tall task to swipe a base against Oviedo and Endy Rodriguez, but Hoerner has the speed to get it done. Ian Happ has a 925 OPS against right-handers on the road and his price point is much better than Cody Bellinger’s price.
Seiya Suzuki has been a man on a mission in the second half, hitting .305/.363/.568 and it doesn’t seem like many of the popular DFS sites have got on to that fact.
Daniel Jones won somebody a million dollars. Let me repeat that. DANIEL JONES WON SOMEBODY A MILLION DOLLARS. The winner of the DraftKings Week 2 Milly Maker was all about that Giants stack. Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Darren Waller helped one astute player take home a cool mil.
While I don’t recommend playing Daniel Jones on Thursday against the buzzsaw that is the 49ers defense, we will find this week’s Daniel Jones among the other matchups. Maybe another struggling QB with a good matchup? (Spoiler alert: It’s Deshaun Watson)
Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa ($7000 DraftKings, $8100 FanDuel)
Jaylen Waddle ($7500 DraftKings, $7600 FanDuel)
How do you not keep going back to Tua and this Dolphins offense? And this Broncos defense that just allowed Sam Howell to throw for nearly 300 yards (299 Sam? Really? This argument would have sounded so much better if I could just say 300).
With Surtain expected to shadow Tyreek Hill most of the night, it makes sense to pivot to the less played option in Jaylen Waddle. It’s been the Tyreek Hill show so far this season, but Waddle isn’t going to just fade into the background. There are big games ahead for both players, but I’ll take the big discount opposite the Surtain matchup this week.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
CJ Stroud ($5300 DraftKings, $6600 FanDuel)
Nico Collins ($5300 DraftKings, $6900 FanDuel)
Robert Woods ($4400 DraftKings, $5800 FanDuel)
While not projected to be the highest scoring matchup of the week, this game has sneaky DFS upside. Houston has been having CJ Stroud do his best “Joe Flacco on the Jets” impression, throwing the ball on average 45+ times per game through the first two weeks of the season. I expect Jacksonville to go up early which means we could see another high-volume passing game from the Houston Texans.
There are three receivers on the Houston Texans that all have an argument to be started each week. Nico Collins is the WR1 here in Houston, but Robert Woods and Tank Dell both out snapped him this past week. The Fantasy Sports Logic Contrarian Edge Optimizer loves the Stroud stack. Get contrarian by playing Robert Woods and hope for another 47-pass attempt game from Stroud.
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson ($6100 DraftKings, $7500 FanDuel)
Amari Cooper ($5700 DraftKings, $6200 FanDuel)
The Browns lost star running back and offense focal point Nick Chubb to a season-ending injury Monday night. With Jerome Ford (and Kareem Hunt) taking over, the Browns welcome the league’s best run defense through two weeks to Cleveland.
The Titans have been tough to beat on the ground, but they’ve been very beatable through the air, seeing both Derek Carr and Justin Herbert throw for over 300 yards (exactly 305 for both of them). This Browns offense is going to have to throw the ball more with Chubb out for the year, and this Titans defense is going to expedite that process.
Amari Cooper has been Watson’s favorite target so far this season and I expect Watson to lean heavier on Cooper in this Chubb-less Browns’ offense.
Another week, another bargain bin column from yours truly! Week 1 was an absolute atrocity, but I did a lot better hand-picking players from the well of bargains in Week 2, so let’s keep that train going!
Zack Moss, DJ Moore and Michael Thomas were a few of the guys I highlighted as ‘bargain’ plays last week and you probably hit it big if you followed my advice. If not, then this is your week! (all salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
QB: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,300, QB23 at cost)
If I told you that entering Week 3, Mayfield was top five in QB rating and top 10 in QBR, would you believe me?
Shoot, if I hadn’t done the research beforehand, I wouldn’t even believe it myself. Having yet to turn the ball over, Mayfield has been an integral part of the Bucs’ 2-0 start.
Now, with the Eagles on tap for a Week 3 showdown on ‘Monday Night Football,’ expect more Mayfield mania. The Eagles have allowed both Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins to throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, so their pass defense has looked more susceptible than we’re accustomed to seeing.
And with TB wide receiver Mike Evans looking like a supernova (you can’t forget about Chris Godwin either), Mayfield has the stage set for him to continue balling out.
Priced outside of the top 20 QBs in DFS salary, Mayfield at $5,300 should be the closest thing to larceny we’ve seen in the NFL since the DeAndre Hopkins trade to the Cardinals.
RB: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams ($5,500, RB28 at cost)
Prior to this season, the 2022 fifth-round RB had the same amount of touchdowns as both you and I – ZERO.
CRAZY right?
Fast forward to Week 3, and Williams is the NFL’s leader in scrimmage touchdowns with four. If you weren’t a believer, I hope that stat changes your mind.
Want further proof of just how entrenched Williams is in the Rams backfield? Look no further than the latest news surrounding his soon-to-be ex-teammate, Cam Akers. Having been hyped all offseason long by Sean McVay, it’s not a coincidence that the moment Williams starts balling out, Akers is reportedly on the trade block.
Not only is Kyren (a dope name, by the way) the Rams’ goal-line back, he was second in targets last week against the 49ers with 10 and has been praised for his pass catching ability, so we know Matthew Stafford is going to look for him every time he drops back.
Make no mistake about it, Williams is a low-end RB1 for the rest of the season, so lock it in! I assure you he won’t be had at such a discount after Week 3, so pounce on the value while it’s still there.
WR: Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings ($5,500, WR32 at cost)
Maybe third-wheeling isn’t the worst thing in the world after all? Despite being behind both Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson in the targets pecking order, Addison has scored a touchdown and racked up over 60 receiving yards in two straight games to start the season, albeit on limited volume (7 receptions on 11 targets).
With OC Wes Phillips on record stating that Addison’s role is only going to grow as the season progresses, I’d get on board the Addison train while he’s still a bargain.
One more nugget to note: LAC-MIN is expected to be the highest-scoring matchup of the Week 3 slate with an over/under of 54. It will be a buffet for most players. Start Addison with confidence in this one.
WR: Nico Collins, Houston Texans ($5,300, WR38 at cost)
Sitting at WR6 in season-long leagues on the year thus far, Collins has been a target hog, averaging 10 per game and parlaying that into monster production: 13 catches for 226 yards (5th in the NFL in receiving).
With an ownership percentage sitting at 19.6% (at the time of this writing), Collins is being inserted into more lineups than Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase, Davantae Adams, etc. That doesn’t mean everything, but it does mean more people are taking notice.
One more thing: Collins’ Texans are +9.5-point underdogs against the Jaguars, so game script could also be in his favor.
At WR38, don’t be surprised if Collins finishes another week as a top 10 WR.
TE: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots ($4,100, TE11 at cost)
Is Henry on his way to capturing his 2021 form with the Patriots? If you’ve forgotten, Henry totaled 9 touchdowns and 603 receiving yards in his first season in Foxborough.
Through two games this season, Henry is the No. 2 TE on the season and has finished as a top 2 TE in back-to-back weeks (5+ catches, 50+ yards, and a touchdown in both games).
Now that the Patriots are passing the ball with more regularity, Henry seems to be one of Mac Jones’ favorite targets and preferred target in the red zone.
Ranked outside of the top 10 TEs as far as salary, it’s only a matter of time until Henry makes his way into the top 5 TE conversation; here’s your chance to buy low now while you can!
FLEX: Isaiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,400, RB31 at cost)
After a subpar performance (by his standards) on the ground in Week 1 vs the Lions, Pacheco got going against the Jacksonville Jaguars, compiling 70 yards rushing on only 12 carries (5.8 per carry).
Being that his team is the largest favorite in the Week 3 slate (-12.5), Pacheco should have game flow in his favor, which should result in a season-high in touches and, theoretically speaking, more fantasy points.
In addition, the Bears defense has been very kind RBs so far, giving up 103 scrimmage yards (and a TD) to Tampa Bay’s Rachaad White just last week and 127 scrimmage yards and two TDs to Aaron Jones in Week 1.
If you’ve been keeping Pacheco on your bench, now’s the time to unleash him. With an 11% ownership rate (at the time of this writing), he’s being started in more lineups than Travis Etienne, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, etc. others are starting to catch on, so don’t be the person that’s late to the (Pacheco) party!
One player quickly building a case to run for a seat in the 'Mr. Consistency' cabinet -- housed currently by just Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson -- Is Sam LaPorta in Detroit. After just two weeks, he is top-5 at the position in yards and receptions.
Nicknamed YAC.com during this spring's draft process, LaPorta is third in the NFL behind Evan Engram and David Njokue in yards after catch.
During Week 2, we saw some of our favorite TEs deal with tough matchups -- Hayden Hurst against New Orleans, Tyler Higbee against San Francisco and Pat Friermuth against Cleveland. This week, be careful starting Luke Musgrave, Chig Okonkwo, and Zach Ertz.
Instead, lean into cheap options like Cade Otton, Jake Ferguson and Adam Trautman.
My favorite sleeper in Week 2 was ... Tank Dell ... SMASH! Dell had seven receptions on 10 targets to go along with 72 yards and a score. He's still out-performing my ranking. This week’s stud sleeper belongs to Jalin Hyatt, a burner from the University of Tennessee.
Hyatt showed blazing speed at Tennessee in 2022, with a memorable 5-touchdown, 207-yard performance against Alabama. The New York Giants need that kind of jolt of energy to keep up with the 49er firepower in Week 3. While the Giants focus on getting Darren Waller warmed up with targets underneath in Week 3, look for Hyatt to take the top off of the 49ers defense a few more times and find the end zone.
Wide receiver targets are king. In Minnesota this week, the Chargers and Vikings battle for the right to NOT be winless going into Week 4. Over the first two weeks of the season, Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins have combined for 81 pass attempts per game, and I expect Sunday to be no different.
With a game total set at 53.5, players like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Keenen Allen, Mike Williams, K.J. Osborn and yes, even Quentin Johnston, stand to garner some value in fantasy leagues.
Targets are king, and there should be an abundance in Minneapolis.
Houston rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud cracks the Top 10 for the first time in 2023, after consecutive weeks with 40+ pass attempts. He has keyed in on Nico Collins, Robert Woods and as of Week 2, his rookie best friend Tank Dell. Stroud and the Texans travel to Jacksonville, a place they have lost just once since 2014.
The Dallas Cowboys are 2-0 and have out-scored opponents 70-10, but Dak Prescott hasn't been a big part of it. He threw the ball just 24 times in Week 1, with 0 touchdowns. In Week 2, he threw 26 of his 38 pass attempts in the first half. The Cowboys' defense has been dominant with 10 sacks, and Tony Pollard has two of the Cowboys' five offensive touchdowns.
In Week 3, Prescott and the Cowboys travel to Arizona to play a fiery Cardinals defense that led the New York Giants 20-0 at halftime in Week 2, and the Washington Commanders 16-10 in the fourth quarter of Week 1.
Just four quarterbacks are averaging 0.60+ fantasy points per pass attempt in 2023. All four are top 10 in total points, despite being in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts.
The ‘close your eyes special’ saved our day in Week 2 -- the Seahawks winning outright as +5.5 underdogs in overtime. However, I’m kicking myself for not adding the Steelers on Monday Night Football.
In any case, the ‘close your eyes special’ moves to 2-0 ATS and SU on the season. Hope you sprinkled on the money line!
Unfortunately, that was the lone bright spot. The Green Bay Packers shifted to +1.5 underdogs after injury news. They covered the +1.5, but it was -1.5 when I handicapped it for the article. And the New York Jets did not stand a chance at all. Loss.
Let’s evaluate a few lines for Week 3 of the NFL.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs Atlanta Falcons
Shop around because there are a couple of Lions -3 out there. This line opened on the lookahead Lions -5, but the public came down heavy on the Falcons after their comeback win versus the Packers. This could be optimism on the Falcons or a fade of the Lions who just lost to the Seahawks at home (we called it!).
But I want to come back to the Lions this week. They will be without star safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who might be out for the season with a torn pec. I do not have much faith in the Lions defense, and the way to attack them is through the air. Seattle QB Geno Smith finished 32 for 41 for 328 yards and two touchdowns.
While he is still young, I am not yet a believer in Falcons QB Desmond Ridder. Atlanta relies heavily on running the ball — typical for head coach Arthur Smith. However, the Lions are allowing the seventh fewest rushing yards to running backs. Expect the Lions defense to force Ridder to try and beat them.
Jared Goff and company bounce back at home.
Chicago Bears (+12.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
I might regret this very early in this game. KC QB Patrick Mahomes has one of the best win percentages since entering the league, and Chicago QB Justin Fields has one of the worst. However, we just need the Bears to not get destroyed.
How do you win games -- or cover -- vs the Chiefs? Run the ball effectively and control time of possession. Luckily, this might be the only good thing that the Bears do on offense. Fields is a gifted runner, and Chicago has shown a commitment to the rush. They didn’t in Week 2, but I expect them to add emphasis to it this week.
This is really just a fade of Mahomes and Andy Reid as heavy favorites. Mahomes is 7-13-1 as a double-digit favorite in his career, and Reid is 15-22-1. These Chiefs are still figuring things out with this new roster, so the growing pains will continue. After Week 2, this line jumped from Chiefs -9 to Chiefs -12.5.
Chiefs win comfortably but the Bears backdoor this number.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets U: 37
Is this the regular season or the preseason? The O/U of 37 easily clears as our lowest total on the board, so of course I’m going under. The under has cashed in three of the last five matchups between these two teams.
The Jets are struggling to readjust their offense to Zach Wilson. Nathaniel Hackett was brought in mostly because of his relationship with Aaron Rodgers and the familiarity with the offense.
Wilson is still learning this offense. The Jets’ struggles will continue operating behind a rough offensive line that has yet to afford any of their quarterbacks time to throw.
The Patriots have looked better offensively this year, maybe because now they have a real offensive coordinator. But things won’t come easy against this Jets defense. They are stacked at every position and profile to be one of the best defenses in the league.
Last week was rough because the offense put them in terrible situations, but I think back at home the offense can be competent enough to punt instead of turning the ball over and allow the defense room to work.
The under is my favorite play in this one and sharps agree as it has already moved from 38.5 to 37.
There’s a full slate of baseball action Wednesday providing all sorts of fun options for stacking. Keep an eye on the weather in St. Louis, where there is a possibility of a rainout or delay later. I’d probably just avoid stacking either Brewers or Cardinals given the wealth of other options out there – let’s look at a couple of those more closely.
The Twins will face off against the Reds and Hunter Greene in Cincinnati, one of the best hitting environments in the majors. Quite a few Twins have been hot lately and I’ll be looking to stack Edouard Julien ($4100/3000) who’s had a .416 on base percentage with three home runs over the last two weeks while hitting leadoff along with at least one of Matt Wallner ($3700/2800) slashing .297/.395/.432 during that time period, Ryan Jeffers ($3600/2800) .280/.379/.440 (excellent offensive production at catcher), and/or Max Kepler ($4500/2900) .295/.367/.477.
Out west the Padres will look to put some runs on the board after a pretty anemic 2-run win against the Colorado Rockies last night resulted in a no-decision for Blake Snell despite his seven innings of no-hit work. Don’t let last night’s offensive doldrums fool you, quite a few Padres have been red hot lately including Luis Campusano ($3400/2900), who has been excellent at the plate slashing .302/.348/.465 with two home runs in the last two weeks – you could do a lot worse at catcher.
If you’ve built your stack correctly with some of those cost-effective Twins hitters, it gives you the opportunity to add Xander Bogaerts ($4700/3100) who has been excellent over the last two weeks slashing .370/.420/.717 with three home runs and a wRC+ of 208. Wildly, that isn’t even the best wRC+ during that time period on the Padres with his teammate Juan Soto ($5600/4000) slashing .364/.463/.705 with a wRC+ of 210 and four home runs during the same time period. It all makes Jurickson Profar’s ($3500/2800) .308/.400/.462 look positively pedestrian, but it definitely is not and you should see if you have room for Profar in your stack as well.
If you’re looking for another leadoff option that’s relatively cost-effective in your stacks, see if you have room for Steven Kwan ($/3100) who hit leadoff for the Guardians and is slashing .304/.419/.391 over the last two weeks. We all know Kwan is unlikely to hit a lot of home runs, he’s got four doubles and a triple during that stretch while scoring nine runs for the Guardians.
On the pitching side it’s hard to pass up George Kirby ($9700/10000) against the Oakland Athletics. Kirby has struggled in his last couple of starts but he’ll look to right the ship against an A’s lineup that is the only team in baseball to not put up at least 620 runs so far this season (at 547 runs this season with 12 games to go it’s unclear the As will clear 600 runs this season and they sport a league worst -326 run differential.
A bit of a contrarian pick from the optimizer, but I’m going to also build around Lucas Giolito ($7600/9600). Giolito’s struggles with multiple teams this year are well documented, but after a rough initial outing with the Guardians against the Minnesota Twins Giolito has quietly turned in exceptional back-to-back performances. On September 9 he threw seven innings with 2 earned runs and nine strikeouts against the Angels. His last time out on the 15th was even better with 7 innings of shutout baseball and 12 punchouts against the Rangers.
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