September 11, 2023
NFL

How to Use the Contrarian Edge Optimizer

Follow These Tips to Maxmize the Impact of the Optimizer
QBs Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers

An optimizer is a powerful tool to harness in DFS play, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. Like any other tool, one must first learn how to wield an optimizer before its true power can be realized. That is exactly what we will look to sort through in this weekly series.

We’ll focus on the Contrarian Edge Optimizer to use for Monday Night Football this season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization and provide a sneak peek into the newest, and most dynamic optimizer in the industry.

Get Projection CSV

Before manipulating any of the settings in the optimizer, I first like to export the projections via a comma-separated values document, which provides all the raw projections used by the optimizer for each player on the slate. Before continuing, it is important to understand what these values represent.

Median Projections

By definition, a median represents a projection whose final outcome would land above the projection and below the projection an equal 50 percent of the time. As such, the modeling in these algorithms can be back tested to find reliability indexes and tweak the algorithm to provide further accuracy.

The idea of median is difficult for the human brain to comprehend. We like things simple, direct and to the point – which is what median projections aim to provide. We must realize that these top-level values are a numerical representation of a range of outcomes for each player on a given slate.

This range of outcomes will be different shapes, sizes, and magnitudes for every player and becomes one of the better inputs to manipulate to alter the output from the optimizer. Give it a try! Run the optimizer without manipulating any of the median projections and see what it provides.

Test-Drive Our Optimizer for 7 Days, $1

Then, manipulate just one player’s median to a 60 percent outcome (multiply the raw projection by six and divide by five) and run the optimizer again to see how that changes the output in roster form. Higher on a player on a given slate than the median projections are accounting for? Bump their value in the CSV within their range of outcomes and see how the optimizer responds! And best of all, the directions to complete this step in the process are readily available in the top-level of the optimizer design.

Predictive Analytics Modeling

Predictive analytics utilizes statistical modeling methods to predict future outcomes. In other words, predictive analytics attempts to utilize machine learning algorithms to create predictive models. With the optimizer, the behind-the-scenes work has been done for us, but we can manipulate the outputs by changing inputs as previously discussed.

Variance in Median Projections

The best way to visualize a range of outcomes projection, assuming we are provided with a median projection, is to utilize a bell curve. This bell curve will be situated about the median with an array of potential outcomes. Most bell curves are symmetrical about the median, but some players carry an asymmetrical distribution of values within their broader range. These players, largely considered “low floor-high ceiling” plays, are some of the most difficult to predict and project due to their lopsided array.

Median projections must also account for ambiguity in certain situations. For example, there is significant ambiguity associated with the Buffalo Bills and the expected snap rates for players from the slot. Deonte Harty, Khalil Shakir, Trent Sherfield, and rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid could all see slot usage, but the optimizer must account for these wide ranges of potential outcomes and display it through median projections in numerical form. This introduces significant variance in those projections, something we can look to manipulate to harness in our favor.

In numerical models, these statistical anomalies are best represented through standard deviation – but we can do things to manipulate these players manually in the optimizer.

Auto Ownership Bonus

First, select “Set Pro Options” on the top left of your screen in the optimizer. Next, toggle “Auto Ownership Bonus” in the dropdown menu. This function is used to set an ownership threshold and bonus to encourage the inclusion of players that are less owned, leveraging the variance associated with median projections and ownership values.

This functionality will also help to harness the second major statistical input to the modeling – expected ownership. Since the game of football includes high rates of variance, ownership projections are a valuable input to leverage in the process. These ownership bonus thresholds can be manipulated to increase or decrease exposure to variance.

Week 1 MNF Example

Let’s put these practices in action for Week 1 using the Contrarian Edge Optimizer. We’ll focus on the ambiguity with the expected slot snap rates from the Buffalo Bills, alter inputs, and see the outputs from those deviations. We won’t be able to see the full roster outputs for obvious reasons (the optimizer is a paid tool), but we should be able to conceptualize the effects of these manipulations.

I changed the projection of Deonte Harty to an 80 percent outcome, accounting for the potential for him to see a slot snap rate that is higher than his expectation, imported the new data into the optimizer and ran the simulation without adjusting any other values or manipulating any of the Pro Options.

Deonte Harty returned as the optimal Captain in that run, at 0.6 percent expected ownership. Doing the same for Dalton Kincaid returns him as the optimal Captain. The same can be done in the other direction to account for outcomes below median projection, which is useful for variant acts like injuries and matchup induced outliers.

The first installment in this series was broader and more conceptual than it will be in the future, but hopefully it helped to establish a foundational and working knowledge of the power of the optimizer and how to manipulate top-level statistical inputs. From here on out, we’ll get into the optimizer on a deeper level. Best of luck in Week 1 and we’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards!

Our newsletter is coming soon, but you can register now!
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Continue Reading

Other News

Logan Thomas (Commanders, TE) o21.5 Yards & Dawson Knox (Bills, TE) o2.5 receptions

We start with a combo between two undervalued tight ends. While neither are the most exciting names in the world, I see plenty of value in these props.

Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has been locked into the tight end position since the start of the preseason, and Logan Thomas is 2/2 on this number already. While he got injured in the Denver game, he’s practiced this week and should be good to go.

Washington will have trouble establishing the run with their weak offensive line going against a top-tier Eagles D-Line, which should lead to more passing. With their strong secondary, the Eagles notoriously funnel targets over the middle, leading to tight ends balling out. They have a very strong secondary, but the linebackers and safeties can be exploited over the middle.

The Vikings’ T.J. Hockenson posted 66 yards, while the Chargers’ Hunter Henry and the Patriots’ Mike Gesicki had 56 and 38 in Week 1. The Bucs’ Cade Otton had 16 last week but had a drop and some penalty problems. I promise you Howell will drop back more than 25 times this week as well.

Dawson Knox is under the radar with rookie TE Dalton Kincaid, who hasn’t gotten off to the strongest start. Knox has proved to be a reliable weapon for Josh Allen over the last couple years, and he has five red zone targets (T5).

I expect both tight ends to be used interchangeably against the Dolphins, but Knox has been running more high-value routes and been more efficient. He’s over this number in 2/3 games, with his one miss coming against the Commanders. He had three targets, but the Bills were dominating so much that the game got out of hand.

This will be a high-scoring matchup against the best offense in football. Miami DC Vic Fangio is known for those deep cover-2 safety looks, which should lead Allen to check down more than usual. I have Knox and Kincaid both clearing four receptions in this one, but I see more value in Knox.

Now we’re going back to Underdog Rivals, for some head-to-head props!

Zack Moss (IND, RB) -8.5 Rush Yards vs. Kyren Williams (LAR RB)

Zack Moss has been sneaky impressive, and I expect that to continue in Week 4. Even in a rough matchup with backup quarterback Shane Steichen, he dominated a top-10 EPA defense (Houston Texans) and helped his team secure the win. He’s now posted 30-122-0 and 18-88-2 in his two starts since the Colts let go of Deon Jackson.

On the other side, Kyren Williams has ranked in the bottom 5 in RYOE since taking over the job. McVay mentioned wanting to lessen his workload in interviews this week, and it is unlikely that his on-the-field performance is changing his mind.

Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX, RB) +6.5 rush yards vs. Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB)

People won’t like this one, but I like the mismatch in opportunities. We’re seeing Bijan in a fairly even split, coming off an 11-carry game, while Etienne is locked into a 15+ carry role, averaging 16 on the season.

There is no denying Bijan is extremely talented, but I think the wrong player is favored in this matchup. The Jaguars will be one of the bigger pass funnels this year, and I think they hold up well on the ground. I’m expecting a bounce back from the Jacksonville offense, which means a favorable game script for Etienne.

We’re about to enter the final weekend of the season. It’s been a crazy ride, and we only have a few days left to select our Underdog, and Prizepicks plays from a full slate of games.

The Wild Card races are as hot as ever. The highest stakes matchups are between the Cubs and Braves, with Chicago fighting for an NL Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, in the American League, the Mariners host the West-leading Rangers to kick off a massive 4-game series that may see one of these teams knocked out.

There are plenty of options on Prizepicks and Underdog, but I’ve narrowed down the best picks.

Luke Weaver 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (More) – PrizePicks

Weaver is with his third team this season, and for good reason. He has been terrible since 2020. He has allowed at least three earned runs in 19 of 28 appearances. In two of those 28, he was used as an opener, so realistically, that number is 19 of 26 – a 73% rate. He faces a Blue Jays lineup battling for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Jays bats have struggled this season, but Weaver will also struggle.

Sonny Gray 2 Earned Runs Allowed (Lower) – Underdog

Sonny likes it when it’s sunny. His ERA is a miniscule 1.77 in 12 day games, and first pitch is 1:10 pm ET at Target Field. He faces an Athletics lineup that has scored the second-fewest runs in the league over the last month. Gray has gone under this number in six of his last eight starts and has the third-lowest ERA in MLB. The Twins may use this as a tune-up for their postseason campaign and not ask Gray to go deep into the game and risk the over.

Bryce Harper 7.5 Fantasy Score (More) -- PrizePicks

At home, Harper is batting an insane .354 with a 1.083 OPS. He will face Pirates pitcher Luis Ortiz, who has mostly struggled in his young career. He especially has had trouble with left-handed hitters, with opponents batting .340 with a .962 OPS. Harper has gone over this number in five of his last six games.

J.D. Martinez 2 Total Bases (Higher) -- Underdog

If you’ve followed along this month, you understand how easy it is to back the Dodgers. They have one more matchup at Coors Field, so we’re taking the opportunity to back some Dodgers hitters again. They face Chris Flexen, who has been smacked around by righties for a .344 batting average and 1.010 OPS. Martinez is the reigning NL Player of the Week. He’s 9 for 24 at Coors this season with three homers and is 2 for 6 in his career against Flexen.

Mookie Betts 11 Fantasy Points (Higher) -- Underdog

At Coors Field, Flexen has a 5.91 ERA, allowing 37 hits in 32 innings. Eleven fantasy points is wild, but if there’s anyone we should trust to get there, it’s Mookie. He has exceeded this number in three of five games at Coors. The Rockies bullpen is awful with a league-high 5.33 ERA.

Julio Rodriguez 0.5 Runs (More) -- PrizePicks

How do we not back Julio after last night’s drama? I’m opting for a run because he has struggled against Texas. Julio has had more success against left-handed pitching with a .313 batting average, and he will face Jordan Montgomery, who he is 1 for 3 against with a double.

Over the last month, J-Rod has scored the 10th most runs in MLB, and that number stays the same in divisional games, scoring the 10th most against divisional opponents. The Mariners are fighting for their playoff lives.

Welcome to the final Thursday slate of the MLB season! We have some great hitting matchups tonight with Coors Field and some ho-hum starting pitchers on the slate. Let’s dig in!

Weather Report

The Royals and Tigers game was suspended due to rain on Wednesday, but everything looks okay for both contests.

Injury Report

Tony Kemp – Kemp has missed the last four games due to a right ankle sprain. If he is not ready to go against the Twins, JJ Bleday will likely patrol left field.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Gurriel Jr. was scratched from Wednesday afternoon’s affair against the White Sox with left shoulder discomfort. D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said he felt tightness while taking batting practice but he is expected to rejoin the lineup on Thursday.

Ryan Mountcastle – The slugger was activated prior to Wednesday’s game but remained on the bench with lefty Patrick Corbin on the bump for the Nationals. Chris Sale takes the ball for the Red Sox but one would expect Mountcastle to start.

Luis Arraez – He has missed the last three games with a left ankle sprain. It remains unlikely that the leader in batting average in the National League will be ready to go.

Starting Pitchers
DKFD
Logan Gilbert$9,700$8,900
Jesús Luzardo$9,000$9,700
Jordan Montgomery$8,800$10,200
Chris Bassitt$8,600$9,500
Marcus Stroman$7,900$8,100
AJ Smith-Shawver$7,400$8,300
David Peterson$7,000$8,600
Luke Weaver$6,700$6,500
Ryan Yarbrough$6,300$6,900
Javier Assad$5,900$7,300
Chris Flexen$5,000$5,900

Jesús Luzardo – Luzardo ($9,000 DK/ $9,700 FD) has been outstanding in his second full season with the Marlins. The 25-year-old has a 3.73 ERA, 3.75 SIERA, 27 percent strikeout rate, and 7 percent walk rate over 171 1/3 innings. He has started to show the wear and tear of the longest season of his career, but he did toss six shutout frames with eight strikeouts against the Braves two starts ago. The Mets are the 20th best offenses against southpaws and with what feels like a must-win game for Miami, Luzardo could have a big night in the Big Apple.

Chris Bassitt – While he doesn’t get as many strikeouts as many other starters, Chris Bassitt ($8,600 DK/ $9,500 FD) is as reliable as they come. On the season, he has a 3.74 ERA, 4.36 SIERA, 22 percent strikeout rate and seven percent walk rate over 192 1/3 innings. If you remove the first start of the season where he was blasted for 10 hits and nine earned runs against the Cardinals, his line drops to a 3.38 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. The Yankees have been playing better since they transitioned towards a youth movement but Bassitt feels safe at his price point.

Batter to Target

Luke Weaver – Once a promising young pitcher, Weaver has been a dreadful starter and is now on his third team, the Yankees. The Blue Jays are attempting to lock up a place in the playoffs. Over the last 14 days, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been outstanding. He is hitting .263/.391.658 with five homers and 10 RBI. With Weaver’s elevated HR/Barrel ratio (71 percent), it seems like we could see another homer from Vlad tonight. While Bo Bichette hasn’t been as good as Vlad, he still should be able to rack up a couple of hits and runs scored hitting at the top of the Blue Jays lineup.

Stack Attack

Dodgers vs. Rockies (Chris Flexen)

DKFD
Freddie Freeman$6,500$4,600
James Outman$4,300$3,400
Jason Heyward$3,700$3,100

There were a couple of years when Chris Flexen was a good back-end starter, but those years are long gone. He has spent time with the Mariners and Rockies this season, posting a 7.01 ERA, 5.08 SIERA, 1.69 WHIP, and a dreadfully low eight percent K-BB ratio.

The right-hander faces one of MLB's best offenses in the Dodgers. In any other season, Freddie Freeman would be in the discussion for NL MVP, but even with hitting .333/.412/.568 with 28 homers and 23 stolen bases, he will likely finish third. After a rough late spring/early summer, James Outman has looked fantastic as of late, hitting .289/.347/.600 with four homers and nine runs scored since September 15.

While Jason Heyward has been on the struggle bus recently, this pitching matchup in Coors Field is too tantalizing not to take. On the season, the veteran outfielder is hitting .270/.343/.481 with 15 homers and 40 RBI across 365 plate appearances.

Cubs (Marcus Stroman) vs. Braves

DKFD
Matt Olson$6,300$5,000
Michael Harris II$4,300$3,000
Orlando Arcia$3,700$2,800

The Cubs are slumping at the wrong time and their playoff chances hang in the balance. However, they face the best offense in the Braves before packing their bags to face NL Central foe Milwaukee starting Friday.

The Cubs will go with a tandem pitching approach, with Marcus Stroman used as a opener with Javier Assad most likely coming in after him. Matt Olson hasn’t smashed a homer in five games, so it feels like the slugger is due for one Thursday. The prices on the Braves hitters are steep but adding Michael Harris II and Orlando Arcia to the back half of your roster is an excellent way to get into the pristine Braves lineup.

With three weeks behind us, the NFL season feels like it’s fully underway and (mostly) starting to make sense (I’m looking at you Cowboys, what was that!?). Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense have been unstoppable, Jordan Love is an above average quarterback, Travis Kelce is smitten with Taylor Swift, De’Von Achane is as fast as advertised, the Falcons still hate throwing the ball and the Bears are an absolute disaster.

As the season falls into place, more information reveals itself, priors are proven right and even more are proven wrong, it’s up to us to fish out the relevant information and try to find that edge against our opponents.

Sometimes it makes sense not to rock the boat. Tua has been great and he’ll probably remain great for DFS with the Olympic track team he has. But sometimes we have to get contrarian with our stacks to set ourselves away from the crowd. We’ll give you a little bit of both here.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
  • Josh Allen ($8200 DraftKings, $9000 FanDuel)
  • Stefon Diggs ($8200 DraftKings, $8700 FanDuel)
  • Dalton Kincaid ($3200 DraftKings, $4800 FanDuel)

All that talk about Tua in the intro and now I’m saying start Josh Allen!? Shoutout to our friend here at Sportstopia Terrell Furman for promoting this stack. We’ve got the highest total of the week at 53.5 and I WANT SOME OF THAT.

After what we’ve seen Tua and Tyreek do, you wouldn’t be the only one going back to the Dolphin well in Week 4. I’m trying to get on the other side of what should be a game where both teams score plenty. Allen and Diggs are no-brainers, but I like Kincaid’s involvement in the offense so far. Knox only saw two targets last weekend and seems to have lost his job to the rookie while injured.

Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts
  • Matthew Stafford ($5700 DraftKings, $6600 FanDuel)
  • Tutu Atwell ($5500 DraftKings, $6300 FanDuel)
  • Tyler Higbee ($4200 DraftKings, $5100 FanDuel)

In the absence of Cooper Kupp, Rams QB Matthew Stafford has built quite the connection with two young wide receivers. Puka Nacua has been the highlight of this season, but don’t forget about Stafford’s favorite big play guy Tutu Atwell. Atwell out-targeted Puka on Monday and has seen 8 or 9 targets in every game.

Texans’ CJ Stroud threw the ball 47 times against the Colts, so if Stafford can stay alive behind his offensive line I’m expecting similar volume from a team that clearly wants to throw the ball. Puka will likely eat as well, but I’m taking the less rostered and just as involved player. Throw Higbee into the lineup as a contrarian tight end option. He’s been involved and is due a trip to the end zone. Shoutout to the Fantasy Sports Logic Contrarian Edge Optimizer for this Rams stack.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
  • Justin Herbert ($7800 DraftKings, $8600 FanDuel)
  • Keenan Allen ($7900 DraftKings, $9500 FanDuel)

OR

  • Austin Ekeler ($8500 DraftKings, $9600 FanDuel)

Chalk, chasing points, going back to the well, WHATEVER. Justin Herbert has been a fantasy star despite the Chargers early struggles and I’m going back for more after Keenan Allen’s big Week 3. Every quarterback to play the Raiders has thrown at least two touchdowns and no interceptions. This list includes Russell Wilson and Kenny Pickett, so I don’t expect Herbert to be the one to break the trend.

If Ekeler is in fact back, he’s equally as great of an option and you might get a slight dip in ownership due to fears of him coming back from injury. Herbert and Allen are chalk to the max. Ekeler captures the same upside but differentiates your roster from everybody else who watched what Keenan Allen did after Mike Williams went down.

If you read last week’s ‘Bargain Bin’,, let’s pretend I didn’t go 1 for 5 from the field — as Baker Mayfield, Kyren Williams, Jordan Addison, Nico Collins and Hunter Henry all performed below expectation.

Thankfully, Isiah Pacheco salvaged me by putting up a respectable and season-high in scrimmage yards while recording his first TD of the season in a drubbing of the struggling Bears.

I’m looking to atone for last week's debacle and here are the players I’ve hand-picked to assist me in that journey (all salaries are courtesy of FanDuel).

QB: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals ($7,200, QB16 at cost)

Here’s a major positive: according to reports, Burrow left ‘Monday Night Football’ unscathed against the Rams and that there were no ‘setbacks’ to his strained calf.

Perhaps FanDuel hasn’t caught on yet, hence the low salary, relative to his standing amongst QBs in the NFL that is.

Burrow has a juicy matchup against the Titans in Week 4. While their front seven could wreak havoc against the Bengals’ still-questionable offensive line, the Tennessee secondary has been exploited all season.

Just ask Derek Carr and Deshaun Watson, who have each had their best games of the season (statistically) against Tennessee.

Against the Titans – ranked 28th in passing yards allowed per game (275.3) – Burrow is due for his best statistical output of the season. It doesn’t hurt that he and Ja’Marr Chase finally got on the same page on MNF, as Chase racked up a career-high in catches with 12 while simultaneously putting up a season-high in yardage with 141.

Arguably the healthiest he’s been in the last month or so and a matchup on tap against an opponent who's vulnerable against the pass? He’s a must-start. Give me Burrow all day long, baby!

RB: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints ($6,500, RB24 at cost)

I know, I know. AK has yet to play because of suspension, but with the absence of Jamaal Williams (IR) and unproven depth at RB in New Orleans with only rookie RB Kendre Miller and Tony Jones Jr to spell him, I expect the Saints to put about as much on Kamara’s plate as he can handle in Week 4 against the Buccaneers.

Not as stout against the run like we’re accustomed to seeing, Tampa Bay has shown cracks in their run defense armor.

Take for example, DeAndre Swift’s 130 rushing yards in Week 3. Or the fact that Tampa allowed Philadelphia RB’s to account for 173 yards rushing (201 rushing yards on the day).

With Jameis Winston in at QB as Derek Carr is dealing with a sprained AC joint, I expect New Orleans to play more conservative in Week 3 and run more.

What better way to do that then with a RB who has fresh legs and is still considered one of the premium guys at his position?

WR: Tank Dell, Houston Texans ($6,200, WR40 at cost)

Another week, another fantasy scoring output north of 20 points for rookie WR Nathaniel ‘Tank’ Dell in Houston after he put up a 5-catch, 145-yard, and 1 TD performance in Jacksonville in Week 3.

After clamoring for the Texans to draft him shortly after he was drafted No. 2 overall, C.J. Stroud not only got his wish, but the Texans might have gotten one of the steals of the draft in the diminutive, yet explosive and extremely talented wideout from Houston.

Not only that, but this rapport has been making local headlines in Houston all summer long, as it was reported a number of times that Stroud and Dell had showcased strong chemistry with one another during training camp and that has since showcased itself through the first few weeks of the regular season.

Having received 7 targets and caught a TD in back-to-back weeks for the Texans, Dell is gaining traction as a coveted fantasy commodity and definitely not somebody you want to miss out on as this will likely be the last week you can get him outside of the top 30 at WR as far as price point.

One more point: the Steelers pass defense has been BLEEDING points to opposing WRs all season – just ask Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, Davante Adams, and Jakobi Meyers.

Start Dell with confidence.

WR: Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,100, WR41 at cost)

First off, prayers up for Mike Williams, who had been on a statistical tear to start the season.

In his place, enter Joshua Palmer, who finished Week 3 with 7 targets, 66 yards and a touchdown.

Against a secondary that has not only struggled all year long, but has been struggling for the last few years now, Palmer is very fantasy-friendly in one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league playing alongside one of the NFL’s most prolific WR’s in Keenan Allen.

And Palmer is the No. 2 option catching passes from one of the hottest QB’s in the game right now? It doesn’t get any better than that.

Hold on, maybe it does.

$6,100.

End of story.

TE: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys ($5,100, TE18 at cost)

Having received 4 or more targets in every game this season so far, Ferguson has flown under the radar as a fantasy relevant TE.

In a matchup that’s expected to be difficult for Dallas’ wide receivers as New England’s cornerbacks have been shut down, I expect Dak Prescott to look to Ferguson early and often as not only a security blanket, but as the go-to guy in the red zone as well.

Still entrenched as the TE1 on the depth chart ahead of other young TE’s with potential, Ferguson has even caught the attention of his QB, as Prescott is on record saying that Ferguson is ‘close to becoming a big-time guy’.

We’ll see if that tree bears any fruit come Week 4, but for now -- I’m willing to bet that it will, given what I’ve seen so far.

FLEX: Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears ($5,300, RB51 at cost)

If you’re looking for the ultimate dart throw, look no further than the man matching up against a team that gave up 70 points and 350 yards RUSHING (on 8.1 yards per carry) to the Miami Dolphins last week.

While leading the league in scoring helps when it comes to accumulating fantasy points, don’t let the Bears’ inability to move the ball (or score points for that matter) stop you from getting a bargain on Johnson.

Coming off a season-high in snap percentage (45%), carries, and rushing yards, this is the week in which the Bears will start to utilize their talented rookie back. And if there’s a week for this offense to get back on track, it has to be against the Broncos, who have given up 105 POINTS in their last two outings.

With 50 other guys ahead of Johnson in the salary pecking order regarding RB’s, I don’t believe there could be more bang for your buck than in the former Longhorn.

The new “Mr. Consistency” did the thing. Sam LaPorta finished as TE1 in Week 3 and supplanted himself in the Tier 1 conversation next to Tj Hockenson, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce ... until Kelce's snap share gets back to 80%+.

Be careful starting Zach Ertz, Cade Otton, Hunter Henry and Kylen Granson. Instead, get your hands on Luke Musgrave, who is the NEXT rookie tight end to break out; Noah Fant, who is cheap and attainable EVERYWHERE; and Cole Turner, who stepped into Logan Thomas’ role and finished as TE20 in his starting debut.

Tight End Rankings:

RankChangeNameTeamWeek 4
15Mark AndrewsBAL@CLE
2 Travis KelceKC@NYJ
3-2T.J. HockensonMIN@CAR
4 Darren WallerNYGSEA
5 Sam LaPortaDET@GB
6 Evan EngramJAXATL
7 Luke MusgraveGBDET
8 George KittleSFARI
9 Hunter HenryNE@DAL
10 Hayden HurstCARMIN
11 Kyle PittsATL@JAX
12 Noah FantSEA@NYG
13 Tyler HigbeeLAR@IND
14 Donald ParhamLACLV
15 Dalton KincaidBUFMIA
16 Gerald EverettLACLV
17 Pat FreiermuthPIT@HOU
18 Jake FergusonDALNE
19 Dallas GoedertPHIWSH
20 Cade OttonTB@NO
21 David NjokuCLEBAL
22 Zach ErtzARI@SF
23 Kylen GransonINDLAR
24 Dawson KnoxBUFMIA
25 Tyler ConklinNYJKC
26 Cole TurnerWSH@PHI
27 Durham SmytheMIA@BUF
28 Juwan JohnsonNOTB
29 Irv SmithCIN@TEN
30 Pharaoh BrownNE@DAL
31 Cole KmetCHIDEN
32 Brevin JordanHOUPIT
33 Mike GesickiNE@DAL
34 Jonnu SmithATL@JAX
35 Josh OliverMIN@CAR
36 John BatesWSH@PHI

Kicker Rankings:

RankNameTEAMWeek 4
1Jake MoodySFARI
2Daniel CarlsonLV@LAC
3Cameron DickerLACLV
4Jake ElliottPHIWSH
5Younghoe KooATL@JAX
6Tyler BassBUFMIA
7Justin TuckerBAL@CLE
8Harrison ButkerKC@NYJ
9Greg JosephMIN@CAR
9Jason MyersSEA@NYG
10Brandon AubreyDALNE
11Brett MaherLAR@IND
12Brandon McManusJAXATL
13Matt GayINDLAR
15Nick FolkTENCIN

Defense Rankings:

RankTeamWeek 4
1KC@NYJ
2DALNE
3CLEBAL
4PHIWSH
5SFARI
6BAL@CLE
7PIT@HOU
8NOTB
9TENCIN
10WSH@PHI
11LAR@IND
12CIN@TEN
13LV@LAC
14NE@DAL
15JAXATL

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk -- QB Brock Purdy's favorite target among a plethora of SF pass-catchers -- has skyrocketed dozens of spots to No. 22 in our WR re-rankings heading into Week 4.

Aiyuk, who missed Week 3 with a shoulder injury, came off the injury report on Friday. Teammate Deebo Samuel is listed as questionable for the game at home against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.

Jalin Hyatt flopped in our face Thursday in Week 3. The opportunity was at arm's length and the Giants didn’t trust him with it. He finished with 0 points in a game that was set up directly for a splash play breakout.

Everyone's focus last week was Chargers at Vikings, and as predicted -- “Over the first two weeks of the season, Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins have combined for 81 pass attempts per game, and I expect Sunday to be no different.” -- things exceeded expectations. The QBs combined for 97 attempts, allowing for all four of the targeted wide receivers to finish almost exactly where projected, each in the Top 24, with Jordan Addison finishing 24th.

In Week 4, Keenen Allen starts where he finished last week, at the top of the chart. While Allen and Mike Williams finished with massive performances in Minnesota, Williams is lost for the season with a torn ACL. Coming off of a 20-target performance and NFL-record third career 15+ catch game, Allen is poised for a repeat performance while hosting fellow 20-target monster Davante Adams.

Sleepers to target in Week 4 consist of Adam Thielen, who is no longer low-key thanks to back-to-back 20+ point outbursts. This week he plays his former team, the Vikings. Down the line is No. 54 Wan’Dale Robinson, who returned from an ACL injury in Week 3, and No. 58 Josh Downs, who faces a favorable speed mismatch at home against the Rams.

1 Keenan AllenLACLV
2 Justin JeffersonMIN@CAR
3 Tyreek HillMIA@BUF
4 Ja'Marr ChaseCIN@TEN
5 Davante AdamsLV@LAC
6 Amon-Ra St. BrownDET@GB
7 CeeDee LambDALNE
8 Stefon DiggsBUFMIA
9 A.J. BrownPHIWSH
10 Puka NacuaLAR@IND
116Tee HigginsCIN@TEN
12 D.K. MetcalfSEA@NYG
13 Calvin RidleyJAXATL
14 Chris OlaveNOTB
15 Mike EvansTB@NO
165Jakobi MeyersLV@LAC
17 Adam ThielenCARMIN
18 Devonta SmithPHIWSH
19 Michael PittmanINDLAR
2011Zay FlowersBAL@CLE
21 George PickensPIT@HOU
2241Brandon AiyukSFARI
23 D.J. MooreCHIDEN
24-7Tank DellHOUPIT
25 Courtland SuttonDEN@CHI
26 Jordan AddisonMIN@CAR
27 Josh PalmerLACLV
28 Marquise BrownARI@SF
29 D.J. CharkCARMIN
30 Tutu AtwellLAR@IND
31 Nico CollinsHOUPIT
32 Marvin MimsDEN@CHI
33 Amari CooperCLEBAL
3413Elijah MooreCLEBAL
35 Michael GallupDALNE
36 Garrett WilsonNYJKC
37 Josh ReynoldsDET@GB
3822Christian KirkJAXATL
39 Jaylen WaddleMIA@BUF
40 Rondale MooreARI@SF
41 Christian WatsonGBDET
42 Tyler LockettSEA@NYG
43 K.J. OsbornMIN@CAR
44 Michael ThomasNOTB
45 Chris GodwinTB@NO
46 Quentin JohnstonLACLV
47 DeAndre HopkinsTENCIN
48 Michael WilsonARI@SF
49 Romeo DoubsGBDET
50 Drake LondonATL@JAX
51 Jerry JeudyDEN@CHI
52 Jayden ReedGBDET
53 Rashee RiceKC@NYJ
54-38Deebo SamuelSFARI
55 Terry McLaurinWSH@PHI
56 Wan'Dale RobinsonNYGSEA
57 Nelson AgholorBAL@CLE
58 Kalif RaymondDET@GB
59 Tyler BoydCIN@TEN
60 Gabriel DavisBUFMIA
61 Josh DownsINDLAR
62 Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA@NYG
63 Skyy MooreKC@NYJ
64 Rashid ShaheedNOTB
65 Jahan DotsonWSH@PHI
66 Calvin AustinPIT@HOU
67 Kendrick BourneNE@DAL
68 Alec PierceINDLAR
69 DeVante ParkerNE@DAL
70 Robert WoodsHOUPIT
71 Dontayvion WicksGBDET
72 Parris CampbellNYGSEA
73 Olamide ZaccheausPHIWSH
74 Ronnie BellSFARI
75 Chosen AndersonMIA@BUF
76 Juju Smith-SchusterNE@DAL
77 Terrace MarshallCARMIN
78 Brandon JohnsonDEN@CHI
79 Mack HollinsATL@JAX
80 Chase ClaypoolCHIDEN
81 Van JeffersonLAR@IND
82 Donovan Peoples-JonesCLEBAL
83 Samori ToureGBDET

Week 3 brought forth a historic week for Fantasy points. The Miami Dolphins' dynamic duo of Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane combined for 96.5 fantasy points, 375 yards and 8 total touchdowns. Something we may never see again at the position.

The last team to score 60+ points in a game was the New Orleans Saints in 2011 against Indianapolis, 62-7. Achane and Mostert will return to the mean, due sheerly to opportunity. Jaylen Waddle will return, and Miami will not run that pure again.

Only one running back has finished with 19.9+ fantasy points in all three weeks so far: Christian McCaffrey.

Zack Moss was dropped into our lap in Week 2 for the Colts. He has scored 20+ fantasy points in both games after being inactive in Week 1. He finished as a top-10 fantasy back in both weeks.

Week 4 brings Moss's toughest matchup yet against the Rams. Los Angeles held McCaffrey to RB7, Joe Mixon to RB16 and Ken Walker to RB26 in the first three weeks. Moss enters the Week as RB15, with an offensive line that has returned to dominance in the face of a healthy Quentin Nelson.

RankCHANGENameTeamWeek 4
1 Christian McCaffreySFARI
2 Bijan RobinsonATL@JAX
3 Travis EtienneJAXATL
4 Aaron JonesGBDET
5 Kenneth WalkerSEA@NYG
6 Tony PollardDALNE
7 Josh JacobsLV@LAC
8 Raheem MostertMIA@BUF
9 Alvin KamaraNOTB
10 Alexander MattisonMIN@CAR
11 Kyren WilliamsLAR@IND
12 James CookBUFMIA
13 D'Andre SwiftPHIWSH
14 Zack MossINDLAR
155Joe MixonCIN@TEN
16 Jahmyr GibbsDET@GB
17 Rhamondre StevensonNE@DAL
18 Javonte WilliamsDEN@CHI
19 Miles SandersCARMIN
209Joshua KelleyLACLV
21 Rachaad WhiteTB@NO
22 Derrick HenryTENCIN
23 Devon AchaneMIA@BUF
24 Jerome FordCLEBAL
25 Najee HarrisPIT@HOU
26 Brian RobinsonWSH@PHI
27 James ConnerARI@SF
28 David MontgomeryDET@GB
293Isiah PachecoKC@NYJ
30 Dameon PierceHOUPIT
316Roschon JohnsonCHIDEN
32 Jaylen WarrenPIT@HOU
33 Matt BreidaNYGSEA
34 Jerick McKinnonKC@NYJ
35 Khalil HerbertCHIDEN
36 Ezekiel ElliottNE@DAL
37 Tyler AllgeierATL@JAX
38 Gus EdwardsBAL@CLE
39 Rico DowdleDALNE
40 Kenneth GainwellPHIWSH
41 Tyjae SpearsTENCIN
4218Chuba HubbardCARMIN
43 Zach CharbonnetSEA@NYG
44 Gary BrightwellNYGSEA
45 Breece HallNYJKC
46 Dalvin CookNYJKC
47 Samaje PerineDEN@CHI
48 Kendre MillerNOTB
4913Antonio GibsonWSH@PHI
50 Melvin GordonBAL@CLE
51 Latavius MurrayBUFMIA
52 A.J. DillonGBDET
53 Elijah MitchellSFARI
54 Clyde Edwards-HelaireKC@NYJ
55 Tank BigsbyJAXATL
56 Tony JonesNOTB
57 Jaleel McLaughlinDEN@CHI
58 Devin SingletaryHOUPIT
59 Kareem HuntCLEBAL
60 Ty ChandlerMIN@CAR
61 Ameer AbdullahLV@LAC
6210Emari DemercadoARI@SF
63 D'Ernest JohnsonJAXATL
64 Zonovan KnightDET@GB
65 Justice HillBAL@CLE
66 Kenyan DrakeBAL@CLE
67 Keaontay IngramARI@SF
68 Pierre StrongCLEBAL
69 Isaiah SpillerLACLV
70 Emanuel WisonGBDET
71 Damien HarrisBUFMIA
72 Craig ReynoldsDET@GB
73 Sean TuckerTB@NO
74 DeeJay DallasSEA@NYG
75 Michael CarterNYJKC
76 Jordan MasonSFARI
77 Trayveon WilliamsCIN@TEN
78 Patrick TaylorGBDET
79 Trey SermonINDLAR
80 Chris BrooksMIA@BUF
81 Deuce VaughnDALNE
82 Salvon AhmedMIA@BUF

This week might not draw a C.J. Stroud call like Week 3 did. He was ranked 25th by the Expert Consensus Rankings at FantasyPros, and he finished as QB13.

Meanwhile, if you tuned into Sportstopia last week, we had Stroud positioned at No. 8 in the rankings and marked as a must-play.

Jordan Love is currently the QB4 in Fantasy this season, despite continually being ignored by the consensus. His early Week 4 ranking for Thursday Night Football is QB18 in a matchup against the Detroit Lions in primetime. I have Love as the QB9 in this juicy divisional matchup, with Packers wice receiver Christian Watson projected to return, per interview with Watson.

Josh Allen's First NFL Season (2018)
  • 28.3% Completions Under Pressure (Last)
  • 10.3 aDOT When Blitzed (6th)
  • 12.2 aDOT When NOT Blitzed (1st)
  • 3.01sec Average Time to Throw (LAST)
  • 68.7% Completion while taking LESS than 2.5 sec TTT
  • 41.8% Completion while taking MORE than 2.5 sec TTT
  • 16.3% Pressure to Sack (15th)
  • 10 TD/12 INT in 11 Games started (5-6 record)
Jordan Love's First Starting Season (2023)
  • 25% Completions Under Pressure (Last)
  • 12.1 aDOT When Blitzed (3rd)
  • 10.3 aDOT When NOT Blitzed (2nd)
  • 2.56sec Average Time to Throw (17th)
  • 54.9% Completion while taking LESS than 2.5 sec TTT
  • 51.1% Completion while taking MORE than 2.5 sec TTT
  • 13.0% Pressure to Sack... (9th)
  • 4 TD/ 0 INT in 3 Games started (2-1 record)
RankChangeNameTeamWeek 4
1 Justin HerbertLACLV
2 Jalen HurtsPHIWSH
3 Josh AllenBUFMIA
4 Patrick MahomesKC@NYJ
5 Tua TagovailoaMIA@BUF
6 Lamar JacksonBAL@CLE
7 Kirk CousinsMIN@CAR
8 Russell WilsonDEN@CHI
9 Jordan LoveGBDET
10 Anthony RichardsonINDLAR
11 Trevor LawrenceJAXATL
12 Jared GoffDET@GB
13 Brock PurdySFARI
147Joe BurrowCIN@TEN
15 C.J. StroudHOUPIT
16 Justin FieldsCHIDEN
17 Andy DaltonCARMIN
18 Geno SmithSEA@NYG
19 Jameis WinstonNOTB
20 Daniel JonesNYGSEA
21 Matthew StaffordLAR@IND
22-1Deshaun WatsonCLEBAL
23 Sam HowellWSH@PHI
24 Dak PrescottDALNE
25 Kenny PickettPIT@HOU
26 Baker MayfieldTB@NO
27 Desmond RidderATL@JAX
28 Jimmy GaroppoloLV@LAC
29 Zach WilsonNYJKC
30 Joshua DobbsARI@SF
31 Mac JonesNE@DAL
32 Ryan TannehillTENCIN
33 Gardner MinshewINDLAR
34 Clayton TuneARI@SF
35 Malik WillisTENCIN
36 Taylor HeinickeATL@JAX
37 Kyle AllenBUFMIA
38 Mike WhiteMIA@BUF
39 C.J. BeathardJAXATL
40 Tyrod TaylorNYGSEA

It’s a great day to build around an ace as you’re trying to decide who to stack in daily fantasy.

Gerrit Cole ($12000/11100) tries to put an exclamation point on his Cy Young candidacy against the Toronto Blue Jays. Rogers Centre will be rocking with the Blue Jays trying to hold off the Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners in the AL Wild Card race.

Alternatively, Pablo López ($11400/11300) against the A’s offers a solid, but less likely to be rostered by the rest of your contest ace. Admittedly, he has more variance in his outcomes than Cole does, but at times he's been excellent, including a 14-strikeout effort against the Mets on Sept. 10.

If you roster López or Cole, you'll need to pair them with a much cheaper pitching option. I like Sean Manaea ($6000/6900) against the Padres. His role has been in flux much of the season, but he’s gone more than five innings in each of his last three starts, including a 7-inning, no-run gem against the Los Angeles Dodgers his last time through the rotation.

For stacks, you can't go wrong with the Dodgers at Coors Field. Mookie Betts ($6700/$4900) can play second or outfield, and he's is in the middle of an MVP caliber season. He has a .299/.364/.505 slashline over 121 plate appearances at Coors Field.

Pair him with JD Martinez ($5700/$4500), who has been red hot over the last two weeks with a .333/.367/.733 slashline and five home runs.

If you’re looking for a more cost-effective Dodger consider Jason Heyward ($3900/3100). The Dodgers have deployed JHey very effectively and over the last two weeks he’s slashing .324/.343/.559.

Double check the lineups before game time. Heyward doesn’t play every day and if he’s not in the lineup, you’ll need to pivot to another cheap outfield option like James Outman.

Those Dodgers stacks can be pricey so consider pairing the Dodgers with some players from the Minnesota Twins, who are facing off against right-hander Joey Estes in only his second start. His debut did not go well, with Estes throwing just 4.2 innings and giving up five earned runs to the Mariners.

I recommended Edouard Julien ($4000/2900) and Matt Wallner ($3400/2800) last week, and I recommend them again. Wallner is slashing .394/.512/.636 over the last two weeks.

Julien’s .154 batting average won't jump out at you, but his 23.5% walk rate in the last two weeks does. He’s getting on base at a .353 clip over the last two weeks which means he’s a guy who can be driven in by other bats in the lineup.

Finally, Kyle Farmer ($3000/2700) is a very cost-effective 3B/SS option and he’s getting on-base at a .340 clip over the last two weeks.