Wednesday is a packed day of playoff baseball with three league division series games and two teams facing elimination.
The Orioles were eliminated Tuesday by a Rangers team that has been streaky all season and hit a hot streak at the right time. The Dodgers (down 2-0 to the Diamondbacks) and the Twins (down 1-2 to the Astros) could join the Orioles on the outside looking in. Let’s take a closer look at the Daily Fantasy options.
Pitcher Options
There aren’t that many options for stacking pitchers and the Braves are complicating that situation by not committing to who they’re starting. I’ll go with Aaron Nola ($9600/$10100), who has been up and down but brings the highest floor of any starter tonight.
Nola had a quality start in the Wild Card round with seven scoreless innings and, while the strikeouts weren’t there, they were in his last two starts of the regular season.
I’ll pair Nola with Brandon Pfaadt ($7500), who is a contrarian play. I’m looking for upside and value from Pfaadt, who has struggled at times in his rookie campaign and in his last time against the Brewers. But he’s got strikeout potential and did close the season with two of three strong starts, going five-plus scoreless innings against both the North and South side of Chicago.
Hitter Stacks
For batters, I expect big run totals in all of the games, so there are lots of options for good stacks.
My favorite option is the Philadelphia Phillies, who will be playing in front of their home crowd, and Citizens Bank Park should be rocking. J.T. Realmuto ($4200/$3300) has been hot this postseason with a wRC+ of 208 while slashing .333/.375/.800. Pair him with one of these hitters:
Bryce Harper ($5200/$4100), who walked 29.4% this postseason while slashing .333/.529/.583
Trea Turner ($5400/$3800), who is slashing .375/.412/.563 with a wRC+ of 164
Bryson Stott ($3700/$3300), who has seven RBI this postseason while slashing .357/.375/.571
I’ll also try to build a lineup including Kyle Schwarber ($4400/$3700). Although the Phillies’ big leadoff man hasn’t gotten it going this October, he has walked in 11.8% of his plate appearances and it’s just a matter of time before he hits a bomb.
It should be a great evening of playoff baseball no matter who you are stacking. With all of the teams pretty deep into their rotations and a couple of teams in must-win situations it feels like a great day to bet the over.
*All dollar values are courtesy of DraftKings/FanDuel.
There doesn’t appear to be anything that should prevent either of Monday’s games from being played.
Injury Report
Kyle Wright, Braves RHP, shoulder: Wright’s season was already over after being placed on the 60-day injured list, but multiple outlets have reported that he’s likely to undergo surgery that will cause him to miss the 2024 season. It’s a disappointing development for a pitcher that was so good in 2022 -- 3.19 ERA, 21-5 record -- but now will have essentially two missed seasons.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Zack Wheeler @ ATL: $8,800
Zac Gallen @ LAD: $8,500
Max Fried vs. PHI: $8,000
Bobby Miller vs. ARI: $6,900
If Wheeler and Gallen pitch up to their potential, there’s a very good chance they’ll lead their respective teams to 2-0 leads despite playing the first two contests on the road.
Both hurlers have faced their respective opponents multiple times in 2023, with Wheeler posting a 3.32 ERA with a 21/6 K/BB in three starts against Atlanta, while Gallen struggled against the Dodgers with a 9.90 ERA and four homers in two outings and 10 innings. The sample is relatively small, but it’s a easier to have confidence in Wheeler.
Fried was a very effective option when healthy (2.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), but he was limited to 14 starts and 77 2/3 innings because of injuries and hasn’t started a game since Sept. 21 because of a blister on his left index finger.
That adds more risk on top of the Phillies having plenty of quality right-handed hitters -- and good lefties, too -- but Fried is worth roster consideration based on his track record. That and the limited options, of course.
Miller is making his first postseason start, which is a little scary, but his success in the second half of the season makes him arguably the most intriguing arm going. Over his last 10 starts, the rookie right-hander has a 3.25 ERA over 61 innings, held hitters to an OPS of .575 and registered a 57/15 K/BB ratio.
There’s no denying the Diamondbacks have looked fantastic so far in the postseason -- a bit weird considering how poor they looked at the end of the regular season -- but Miller makes an awful lot of sense to pair with a pitcher like Wheeler or Fried; whomever you like to win that game.
Stack Attack
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks (Gallen)
C Will Smith: $4,500
2B Mookie Betts: $6,200
3B Max Muncy: $4,200
OF J.D. Martinez $4,300
So far, I’ve been about as wrong as it gets when picking against the Diamondbacks, but I’ll try one more time. The Dodgers have done a very nice job of bouncing back from losses over the past few postseasons, and they appear to pick the baseball up well against Gallen based on their numbers.
This is a borderline must-win game for LA. It’s not impossible to come back from an 0-2 hole in a five-game series, but it’s awfully hard -- and I’ll (literally) bet on them coming out hot after their absolute disaster of a Game 1 on Saturday.
Veterans aren't the most exciting players to draft in fantasy basketball, but sometimes the boring and safe picks hit more often than chasing upside too early. And some veterans are aging like fine wine and often find themselves cheaply priced in drafts, making them solid values overall.
Here are several NBA senior citizens who are still getting the job done at a high level.
DeMar DeRozan
Chicago’s roster looks almost identical to last season, making DeRozan a very easy player to project for fantasy. He's still very much in his prime at age 34, with his last two seasons being the most impressive stretch of his career. Chicago’s point guard rotation is a mess, so that means we can expect to see plenty of DeRozan with the ball in his hands.
Chicago is in good hands, however. DeRozan ranked in the 89th percentile in pick-and-rolls last season. And unlike other players at his age, DeRozan doesn’t take many nights off and averaged 75 games over the past couple seasons. That’s unlikely to change with the Bulls looking to get back into the playoffs in 2023-24. You cannot go wrong with taking DeRozan in the fifth round, and if you’re already punting 3s, he’ll be even more valuable.
LeBron James
You’d think LeBron would be declining rapidly after 20 seasons, but he operates under a different set of rules when it comes to Father Time. LeBron has been held back by a very serious foot injury for the past couple years, but now he claims to be fully healthy again and he looked very spry to open training camp, moving around like someone a decade younger.
He has publicly said he’s ready to turn the spotlight over to Anthony Davis, but at the end of the day, he’s still LeBron James and he’s still going to eat. Despite playing on one leg last year, he managed a second-round finish in 9-cat. His 3-point shot is trending down as he settles for more bad looks and his defensive output isn’t what it used to be, but LeBron can still go out there and get 25 points, eight assists and eight rebounds in his sleep.
Chris Paul
Chris Paul has lost a step, and then another. He'll be 39 years old when the playoffs roll around. But it sounds like the Warriors are going to start him next to Steph Curry, and if that happens it means his minutes should stay north of 28.
Paul’s ADP of 72 in Yahoo is actually a couple spots cheaper than it was a few weeks ago, so he’s relatively affordable in fantasy drafts.
Assists are one of the most valuable categories in fantasy basketball because it’s not a category you can make up ground in during the middle and late rounds, so that really helps Paul’s case.
Curry said the addition of Paul has been a “seamless” fit so far, and those two were getting in a ton of reps together well before training camp started. Plus, the Warriors will have a focused Andrew Wiggins back in the mix this season, and hopefully a motivated Jonathan Kuminga to give Paul two really nice cutters and lob threats.
Klay Thompson
After a few years of horrendous injury luck, Klay surprised a ton of people when he played 69 games in 2022-23. He averaged 21.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists and a career-high 4.4 triples on a 41% clip.
The addition of Chris Paul can only help Klay, as he now has another elite playmaker creating easy looks for him on the perimeter. It’s no secret the Warriors don’t have as much frontcourt depth, so there’s been a lot of talk of Klay possibly playing the 4 for stretches. A bump in rebounding and defensive stats is suddenly on the table with this news, making him a reasonable selection with an ADP of 78.
Brook Lopez
Let’s not kid ourselves. Brook Lopez probably isn’t going to have another second-round campaign in 9-cat like he did in 2022-23, as that was pretty much the perfect storm with so many injuries in Milwaukee.
The Bucks enter the season at full strength, with the exception of Khris Middleton, who is still on the mend. Giannis Antetokounmpo will likely find more minutes at center after playing a career-high 41% of his minutes there last season. Lopez is also going to see his block rate come back to earth after registering a 6.7% compared to his career average of 4.9%. His ADP of 65 on Yahoo is not cheap, but often times you will see him fall to the end of the middle round with so many managers chasing youth and upside over safe and “boring” veterans.
Draymond Green
Dray is coming off his worst fantasy season since 2013-14, and although the Warriors paid him the big bucks, he’s clearly at the tail end of his career. The addition of Chris Paul also complicates things, as Paul taking the ball out of Green’s hands even more neutralizes one of his last few remaining strengths.
There’s another way to look at this though. With less offensive responsibility, maybe we can see Green put together one or two more elite defensive seasons in which we see his steal/block rates climb to the levels we were once spoiled with.
The Warriors have very little frontcourt depth and won’t be able to load manage Green as much as Steve Kerr was probably hoping to, so that should help keep Green’s games played up. With an ADP just shy of 100, Green is very cheap and can still be useful in the right punt builds.
Mike Conley
After looking “washed” with the Jazz early on in 2022-23, a trade to Minnesota rejuvenated the veteran in a big way. He averaged14.0 points, 5.0 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 2.4 triples on a 46/42/86 shooting line while playing 31 minutes per night.
Conley ranked in the 98th percentile on pick-and-rolls, making him a tremendous fit alongside Minnesota’s two stud centers in Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. He was also the second-best corner 3-point shooter, and that will be something that Anthony Edwards will be constantly looking for on his frequent drives. With a dirt-cheap ADP on most sites, Conley is a no-brainer pick and clearly has a lot left in the tank.
Al Horford
I wasn’t initially on board with Horford in what will be his age-37 season, but the Celtics are extremely thin up front and had to trade away Robert Williams in order to acquire Jrue Holiday. Sure, the Celtics have Kristaps Porzingis, but he’s not exactly Mr. Durable.
After that, we’re look at a group that consists of Luke Kornet and Wenyen Gabriel. Not ideal.
Horford will almost certainly have some maintenance days this season, but how many of those can the Celtics afford with this shallow of a roster? Horford was a 6th-round fantasy value in 9-cat last season and finds himself in an ideal situation to repeat his success.
Gordon Hayward
This might be a reach, but hey, Hayward has to have some good injury luck at least one time in five years, right? Charlotte’s roster is underwhelming yet again, and Hayward is an odd fit on a roster that’s destined to find themselves at the front of the tank race of 2024.
There’s been some talk of Hayward possibly coming off the bench in a sixth man role which honestly might suit him the best, and the Hornets have every incentive to play him in order to get his market value back up for the trade deadline. Hayward is still a very good player on the few occasions he’s healthy enough to play, most recently averaging 14.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.0 triples.
This is one of the most exciting rookie classes in recent memory, but not all of them are going to make a splash right away. With preseason ramping up, there will be a handful of additions to this list. But for now, there are eight rookies from the 2023 draft class that could make serious noise this season.
Victor Wembanyama
I don’t normally draft rookies aggressively, but Wembanyama is the exception. Wemby already has pro experience coming from a highly respected league in France, averaging 20.9 points on 47/27/82 shooting with 10.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 3.0 blocks. The last rookie to produce a first-round fantasy campaign was Karl-Anthony Towns in 2015-16, but Wemby has an even better stat profile and will be San Antonio’s top offensive option the second he takes the floor.
I’m going to have a ridiculous amount of Wemby shares if his ADP remains in the third round.
Scoot Henderson
Unlike Charlotte, I think it’s painfully obvious that Scoot Henderson should’ve come off the board at No. 2. We haven’t seen a point guard with this frame and athletic build since Russell Westbrook or prime Derrick Rose. Scoot has a lightning-quick first step and can get to the rim at will, but he can also stop on a dime and showcase his outstanding mid-range game. He also has a 6-9 wingspan and monstrous hands, something that will allow him to generate heaps of steals and blocks.
The Blazers did Scoot a solid and got rid of the distractions caused by the Damian Lillard saga, and Malcolm Brogdon is expected to be flipped. That leaves Scoot and Anfernee Simons with the keys to the offense. I would target Scoot aggressively in points leagues, but in 9-cat I think it would be better to acquire him later on in his rookie season when he has a chance to learn the ropes.
Rookie PGs are notorious for struggling with efficiency and turnovers, and it doesn’t help Scoot’s case that he doesn’t have a 3-point shot to fall back on when teams start crowding the paint.
Amen Thompson
Amen was in the top three of my rookie board and will be a 99th percentile athlete in the NBA right out of the gate. And with Kevin Porter Jr. out of the equation in Houston, Amen suddenly has an even better path to playing time. He’ll likely be ready as a floor general and primary playmaker someday, but Fred VanVleet will handle that role in the meantime while the rookie learns the ropes.
Amen has the size and strength to be used all over the floor, and the Rockets will be relying heavily on his defense early. He averaged 2.3 steals and 0.9 blocks for Overtime Elite, and while he doesn’t have a reliable jumper yet, his FG% could be very appealing because of his ability to generate points in the paint.
But just like Scoot, I like the idea of trading for him before the second half of the season as opposed to spending a draft pick on him since he’ll have some early bumps in the road as he figures out his role.
Ausar Thompson
You can argue that Amen may have the higher ceiling, but Ausar may have a better shot at extended minutes right away in Detroit. In fact, he’s already drawing rave reviews from head coach Monty Williams and may even win a starting job. “We think he’s gonna be phenomenal and we think he’s going to be an integral part of our team. There’s a chance that can happen right away, based on what we’ve seen this summer and in camp.”
Just like his brother, Ausar has steal/block rates that are through the roof with 2.4 steals and 1.1 blocks per game with Overtime Elite. He’s also a very capable playmaker, so it will be interesting to see how much freedom he’ll have to create while playing next to a ball-dominant Cade Cunningham.
Brandon Miller
It’s no secret that I’m not a big Miller fan, and being from Charlotte, I can promise you I’m not in the minority here. However, in fantasy basketball, opportunity is sometimes more important than talent and that’s exactly the case here.
Miller will likely step into a sizable role right away, helped by the fact that Miles Bridges is suspended for the first 10 games. On paper, Miller is supposed to be a good fit next to LaMelo Ball for his floor spacing ability, but the issue here is that Miller has been ice cold since the end of his college career.
During the Summer League alone, Miller shot a mediocre 38%.
Miller does have decent steal/block rates to fall back on, and he’s a solid rebounder and secondary playmaker. I’m not writing him off by any means just because the Hornets drafted him too high, but if he finds his footing he’ll have all the opportunities in the world on a really underwhelming Charlotte roster.
Jarace Walker
Jarace Walker is a defensive-minded forward who projects to be a utility player right away for the Pacers. Obi Toppin is standing in his way as the Pacers open camp in what should be an exciting battle for the starting power forward role, so it will be interesting to see which direction Rick Carlisle goes.
Walker struggled with his shot during the Summer League and hit 34% from the field and 44% from the field, but his counting stats of 14.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.3 steals and 1.3 triples were certainly intriguing. I won’t be drafting Walker in standard 9-cat leagues, but I do see him becoming a quality waiver-wire pickup at some point during his rookie season.
Dereck Lively
Jason Kidd starting a rookie? Can it be? It certainly seems headed that way, as Kidd has been talking up Lively quite a bit. Kidd gave Lively the starting nod in the preseason opener, although he didn’t do so hot with two points, five rebounds, one block and four fouls in 15 minutes.
But still, the Mavericks are desperate for a ceiling raiser, and they might as well see if they can Lively up to speed quickly since their alternatives consists of Dwight Powell, Richaun Holmes and Maxi Kleber.
Lively is going to have a steep learning curve and I don’t see myself drafting him just yet, but his shot-blocking ability gives him a great shot of being relevant in category leagues this season – he averaged 4.7 blocks per 40 minutes at Duke.
Taylor Hendricks
One of my favorite rookies, Hendricks reminds me of Jaden McDaniels in so many ways. He’s already an elite shot-blocking forward with 1.7 per game in college, but his 3-point shot is much further along than Jaden’s was during his rookie season.
The issue here is that Utah’s front court is very crowded, as they have Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, John Collins and Kelly Olynyk. Hendricks’ long-term potential is through the roof, and I will be drafting him aggressively in dynasty formats, but a potential lack of playing time at the beginning of his rookie season gives me pause in redraft leagues.
My brother turned 40 this weekend, and I’m not too far off myself. Young people, take a moment. 40 is a big number. It was when my brother and I were kids. It is now. Every time I hear an announcer talk about how old a player is when they might have just turned 30, I cringe a little bit.
But I’ve been thinking about the good times that have filled those years. My brother and I weren’t the best of friends when we were little kids. We grew extremely close when I got to college, however, and our bond has only gotten stronger since.
One of the main reasons is fantasy football. We joined our first league together after I graduated, and we share four different ones now. I root for him, I try to beat him, and I even sometimes give him some waiver advice.
It sounds silly, but this is a silly game we play, and I love every second of it. I love that I’m able to text him at any time about a player going off for three touchdowns or putting up a goose egg. I can always count on him to shoot back with a meme telling me I’m an idiot.
He beat me in a league championship last year and even our parents were super invested in the outcome. It’s the little things that make this game so great. It’s brought so many people together and hopefully you have a similar experience of joy and togetherness.
But sorry for the sappy intro, ya jabronis, on to the week 5 recap!
*Honorable Mention* Sam LaPorta, Lions TE – 3 rec. 47 yds. 2 TDs
We don’t usually do the Thursday guys because some time has passed, but DJ Moore’s day was too good to ignore -- 230 yards and three touchdowns, and it probably should have haven four. Where did he step out of bounds? He paced the league through Sunday. He’s gone over 100 yards three out of five weeks and he’ll have plenty more opportunities to keep that going with a Bears defense that has given up the most passing yards through five weeks.
Is Ja’Marr Chase always freaking open? He sure seemed like it Sunday, with 192 yards and three touchdowns. This was either a “launchpad game” for the Cincinnati Bengals OR they lit up an Arizona Cardinals team that also got lit up by the lousy New York Giants. Cincy will get Seattle before a bye and might really be able to get the offense turned around. Stay tuned!
Three catches. Three scores. That’s how George Kittle’s night went. The connection he had with Brock Purdy at the end of last season made him a top-five tight end. It hasn’t been the norm this season, but it’s clear the chemistry is still very much there. Kittle’s first career three-touchdown game put him right back near the top of fantasy tight end point scorers.
Travis Etienne, Jr. tweeted that he played himself in fantasy this week. I’m glad he didn’t go easy. His first game going over 100 yards on the ground carried the Jaguars to a win. His 35-yard touchdown at the end of the game sealed the deal. He’s a top-five runner and the Jags would be smart to keep that train rolling.
What more can we say about De’Von Achane? He’s leading the NFL in rushing in basically three games on about half as many attempts as the guys behind him. To say he makes the most of his touches is an understatement. And even when the game might be in hand, the Dolphins are more than happy to keep running their offense.
Zack Moss doesn’t care that you have Jonathan Taylor on your fantasy team. He was the feature back in the Colts’ offense as they work Taylor back in. Listen, Taylor got paid and we know what he’s capable of. But if you believe in preseason games being needed to get up to game speed, then Taylor will need about a month to figure it out. Moss will continue to have value and at worst will be the best handcuff in fantasy leagues if Taylor goes down.
They said, there are no limitations on Breece Hall. Yes, the Broncos’ run defense is basically Swiss cheese, but that doesn’t matter. Hall will likely be the focal point of the Jets’ offense going forward because of Zach Wilson’s limitations at quarterback.
Dallas Goedert put his slow start all the way behind him against the Rams. He powered the Eagles’ offense on the first drive and didn’t look back. He runs routes on 80 percent of Eagles pass plays and hopefully Sunday was a sign that Jalen Hurts is noticing.
The kids say it’s cuffing season. I say it’s Kupping season. I’m so hip. Welcome back to the man, the myth, the weapon Cooper Kupp after a stint on the IR. He didn’t miss a beat while leading the Rams in targets, catches and yards. The big question: can the Rams support both Kupp and Puka Nacua? Puka had 71 yards and a touchdown, a BIG BOY touchdown at that, so I think Los Angeles (and fantasy owners) are happy to have them both running routes.
Raise your hand if you benched George Pickens this week. My hand is up, I hate that it’s up, and I wish I could put it down. The Ravens hadn’t allowed a 100-yard receiver all season. I was playing the odds, but it will be the last time I bench Pickens, who is clearly in synch with Kenny Pickett.
Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, our Honorable Mention, has three touchdowns this season. The Lions offense is a monster and I want every part of it. I’ll be bold: LaPorta will finish as a top-3 player at the position this season. Trade for him if you can!
The Duds
Texans WR Nico Collins continued his good game-bad game trend for the Texans by posting only 38 yards. Rams RB Kyren Williams barely did anything against a tough Philly front. Basically every Giants player continued to play like they were on the Giants. And Derrick Henry looked like anything but a King against Indy.
But even though this is a duds section, I do want to talk injuries. Anthony Richardson plays in a way that is seemingly conducive to injuries. His throwing shoulder injury forced him out of the game and could force him to miss time. Cardinals RB James Conner looked good before going down with a knee injury. And the first overall pick in many a fantasy draft, WR Justin Jefferson, couldn’t finish the Vikings game because of a hammy issue. See if Jordan Addison is still somehow on your waiver wire or even consider K.J. Osborn if you’re in a bind.
In perhaps the best matchup thus far this season, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys take on Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara for Sunday Night Football. Let’s look at the game:
San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys, 8:20 pm ET
Betting Odds (DraftKings)
Line: 49ers -3.5, Cowboys +3.5
Moneyline: 49ers (-184), Cowboys (+154)
Over/Under: 45
Team Ranks (2023)
49ers
Points for: 31.3 (3rd)
Points Allowed: 14.5 (T3rd)
Cowboys
Points For: 31 (4th)
Points Allowed: 10.3 (1st)
Key Injuries to Watch
49ers
RB Elijah Mitchell (Knee) – Out
Cowboys
TE Peyton Hendershot (Ankle) – Out
These injuries aren't game altering. Deebo Samuel has been nursing knee and rib injuries for a couple of weeks now, and it's being reported he won't be 100 percent. He played 87 percent of the snaps last week but failed to receive a single target. He’s not listed on the injury report. Mitchell will miss his second consecutive game which led to a few extra snaps for Jordan Mason.
Captain Prices (DraftKings)
Christian McCaffrey, RB $17,700
Tony Pollard, RB, $15,300
CeeDee Lamb, WR, $15,000
Dak Prescott QB, $14,400
Brock Purdy, QB, $14,100
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, $12,600
Deebo Samuel, WR, $11,400
Flex Prices (DraftKings)
Christian McCaffrey, RB $11,800
Tony Pollard, RB, $10,200
CeeDee Lamb, WR, $10,000
Dak Prescott QB, $9,600
Brock Purdy, QB, $9,400
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, $8,400
Deebo Samuel, WR, $7,600
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, McCaffrey is projected to be the most-owned Captain (43%) on the slate at DraftKings. The next closest projected in ownership is Brock Purdy at 9.5%. Regarding flex positions, it's projected to be much more balanced. In Showdown, 9 players are projected to be owned in over 30% of lineups. This includes both team defenses.
McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 13 straight games as a 49er, surpassing the legendary Jerry Rice. CMC found paydirt a career-high four times in San Francisco's 35-16 win over the Arizona Cardinals last week.
Entering Week 5, McCaffrey is the highest non-QB in NFL MVP future odds at +1800. Before Week 4, he was +4800 to win MVP. He is the No. 1 scoring running back in fantasy this season, and the Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most explosive runs this season.
The current Vegas total is 45 points, which might be tough to reach as the Cowboys are the fourth slowest, and the 49ers are the slowest in neutral pace. This will be a physical game from start to finish. Last season, the 49ers defeated the Cowboys 19-12 in the divisional round of the playoffs. Both teams have top-five offenses and defenses so far in 2023.
Captain Option
George Kittle, $9,600
The 49ers tight end projected ownership in the captain slot is just 0.6%! He would be a solid contrarian play on Sunday night and a less expensive option you can deploy. On paper, the matchup with the Cowboys offense doesn't look great, but Kittle is set up to produce on primetime after a deeper dive.
The Cowboys play man-to-man most of any NFL team. Brandon Aiyuk leads the 49ers in target share when facing man at 28.6%, and Kittle is second on the team at 20.5%. Aiyuk will have tough matchups against Daron Bland and Stephon Gilmore on the outside.
The Cowboys’ linebackers are aware of McCaffrey and the SF run game. They will likely stack the box to try to slow down CMC, which will let Kittle get open over the middle on play action, leading to big chunk plays and possibly a touchdown.
Fade
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
The Cowboys QB has been a glorified game manager through the first four weeks. His average depth of target is the second lowest of any quarterback so far this season at 5.9 yards, and the 49ers’ defense has held opposing quarterbacks to the second-lowest yards per attempt. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging a measly 12.8 fantasy points per game against the Niners’ defense.
Cheaper Option
49ers Defense/Special Teams $4,000
San Francisco's defense has dominated this season. They have more interceptions than touchdown passes thrown against them through the season's first month. Their run defense should slow down Tony Pollard and the Dallas running game. They have allowed the second-least explosive runs so far.
Prescott threw for just 206 yards and had 2 interceptions in the playoff loss last year in Santa Clara. Most importantly, for the 49ers defense to pay off, they need to get out to an early lead. Prescott has the best quarterback rating playing with a lead, but he drops to 26th when he's playing from behind.
Prediction
There's no doubt this is the most intriguing matchup so far in 2023. Both sides have Super Bowl aspirations and belong in the conversation. Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense is healthy, so I expect them to perform much better in this game than in the playoff loss last year.
The Cowboys lead the NFL in pressure rate, but Purdy has yet to fold when he's under pressure in the pocket. Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan know each other's tendencies well. I expect the 49ers to win, but the Cowboys will keep it close and gain plenty of respect around the NFL.
We have been very successful with our ‘Value Finder’ series this season. The Fantasy Sports Optimizer has helped me compile a list of players that should exceed expectations at cost. Here are my top values in Week 5:
QB: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (DK: $5,600, FD: $6,800)
The way to win a DFS contest is to be contrarian. The Philadelphia Eagles’ defense is one of the top units in the NFL, but Fantasy Sports Contrarian Optimizer and I believe they have an area that can be exploited — the secondary.
Through four weeks, the Eagles’ secondary has given up the seventh-most passing yards in the league. They have also given out two separate QB2 finishes for the week (Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins) and a QB12 to Sam Howell last week.
Stafford has had a rough start to the season and has not topped QB15 yet. But he’s a gunslinger and gets his top weapon back in wide receiver Cooper Kupp. That will open things up for Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell. This is a great week to get a contrarian, value option at quarterback.
RB: Breece Hall, New York Jets (DK: $5,400, FD: $6,500)
I love a great narrative story that is supported by facts. It feels like telling the future. Here is the narrative here:
Almost a year ago to the day, Hall tore his ACL in the first half of their game at Denver. He was potentially on his way to an Offensive Rookie of the Year award, and it was all over just like that. Now, here we are back at Denver, and the Broncos have given up the most rushing yards to running backs so far this season.
To top it off, the Broncos head coach last season was Nathaniel Hackett, who is now the offensive coordinator for the New York Jets. And did you catch what Sean Payton said about Hackett in the off-season?
This is a great matchup for Hall in a game that will have a roller coaster of emotions. The Jets have come out and said Hall is no longer being managed and will receive a full workload. The Fantasy Sports Contrarian Optimizer and I have Breece Hall as a great, sneaky play this week that could find himself as one of the top RBs of the week.
I know. I know. I know. DeAndre Hopkins has not looked as advertised for this offense. It’s been very tough sledding for the former All-Pro wideout. His best weekly finish this season is WR36. But this matchup versus the Indianapolis Colts is interesting.
The Colts are giving up the eighth most fantasy points to wide receivers. This is a game that is going to start in the trenches with Derrick Henry and he is going to take the pressure off Hopkins. If there is ever a boom week for Hopkins, it’s this one. He’s scored in five straight games versus the Colts.
We have repeat customer to the article! We hit big with Hurst in Week 1 and I love him again in this spot. This Detroit Lions defense’ has been really solid in defending wide receivers while giving up the most receiving yards to tight ends.
This should be a dominant game for the Lions and I’m expecting any work Bryce Young supplies to be in garbage time. This Lions defensive line should pressure Young into making quick throws and I believe Hurst can benefit. Hurst could have a nice PPR day and cap it off with a garbage time touchdown. Very cheap option with high upside for Week 5.
Diamondbacks at Dodgers, NLDS Game 1, 9:20 p.m. ET
Weather Report
Rangers at Orioles is delayed, but weather shouldn’t be an issue for any of the other three Game 1 options in the LDS Saturday.
Injury Report
Max Scherzer – The Rangers LHP was left off the roster as he hasn’t made enough progress from the shoulder issue that has sidelined the future Hall-of-Famer since the middle of September. The Rangers hope he could be back as an option if the team advances to the ALCS.
John Means – The Orioles LHP was left off the roster as he recovers from soreness in his left elbow. The southpaw pitched well in his four starts after returning from injury this summer, and there’s a very good chance he’ll return if the O’s reach the ALCS.
Gabriel Moreno – The Diamondbacks catcher was hit in the head in the Game 2 win over the Brewers when Brice Turang’s bat swing hit his helmet. The backstop passed concussion protocol, however, and appears to be ready to roll for Game 1. Keep in mind is the late game, so there’s a smidgen of risk keeping Moreno in the lineup.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Spencer Strider vs. PHI: $11,200
Clayton Kershaw vs. ARI: $9,100
Justin Verlander vs. MIN: $8,400
Bailey Ober @ HOU: $8,000
Merrill Kelly @ LAD: $7,800
Kyle Bradish vs. TEX: $7,500
Ranger Suarez @ PHI: $6,100
Dane Dunning @ BAL: $5,800
Strider struck out 281 batters and won 20 games for the best team in baseball but had a 5.60 ERA in five September starts. He did win all four decisions, however, and had 11 strikeouts and gave up three runs in seven innings in his last outing against the Phillies. Long story short, it’s easy to justify Strider in the lineup if you’re feeling it, but there’s more risk than reward.
Stack Attack
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks (Kelly)
C Will Smith: $4,400
2B Mookie Betts: $6,200
SS Miguel Rojas: $2,600
OF Jason Heyward: $3,100
Kelly has enjoyed a strong 2023 season, so this is more about belief in the Los Angeles lineup. He did struggle in his last outing against LA, giving up 12 hits and seven runs over five innings. This stack gives fantasy players a mix of big names like Betts and Smith with cheaper options like Rojas and Heyward. It’s easy to imagine the Dodgers getting off to a strong offensive start Saturday, with all due respect to Kelly and the D-Backs staff.
Going with a same game parlay in the Eagles-Rams game (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday). There is already nice value here, with this being priced at +238 on DraftKings. Hurts and Kupp are their team’s best redzone weapons, and the total of this game is currently set at 50.5.
Hurts, the king of the tush push, has all the goal line carries on lockdown and should have plenty of chances with an implied team total higher than four touchdowns.
This is also a good price for Kupp in his return. When healthy, he has been a redzone demon. The Rams are expected to be trailing, and QB Matthew Stafford will throw a lot against the Eagles’ strong run defense. They are especially weak against the slot, and that’s where Kupp will do a lot of his work.
Reports out of LA are that Kupp won’t be limited. I like his chances in a high-octane game.
Rookie Achane has six touchdowns over his last two games, showing next-level efficiency. He’s also out-snapped fellow Dolphin RB Raheem Mostert in back-to-back weeks, posting a 60-percentr snap rate to Mostert’s 44 percent last week.
The Dolphins are 12-point favorites against a miserable Giants defense, and we’ve really seen Achane blossom in the redzone. Miami had plenty of creative uses for him, and we’ve seen this Dolphins offense run up the score before (ask the Broncos about that).
Additionally, DraftKings has Achane priced much differently than the rest of the market, with his 1+ touchdown currently at +105 vs -125 to -175 everywhere else. For 2+ touchdowns, the next best price is +450, showing inherent value on these numbers.
I like targeting longshot touchdown scorers in a game where Colts QB Anthony Richardson will be tasked with beating the Titans through the air. Tennessee’s excellent rush defense will focus on limiting RB Jonathan Taylor and thereby testing Richardson’s passing.
AR-15 has been inconsistent, but he’s also made very nice downfield throws. Pierce will get an opportunity or two downfield, and I like taking that chance against a defense struggling with explosive plays.
Granson really popped last game. He led the Colts TE group in snaps and was consistently involved on third downs. Richardson likes keying in on his tight ends, and Indy will be forced into more of a pass heavy game script.
Richardson will have a boom or bust game; I want some exposure if he can take advantage of this bad pass defense.
'Monotone' gives his top four picks for PrizePicks and Underdog for Week 5 of the NFL season on Sunday.
Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG WR) Over 5.0 Targets
Game: Giants at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Robinson is over in both of his games, going from only 11 snaps in his return to finishing second in WR routes for the Giants last week. He’s clearly going to be a focal point in this mediocre offense, and last week’s healthy usage proved it.
Miami is very susceptible over the middle, in part due to their deep safety looks, and that’s where Robinson operates. The Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most slot targets this season.
Wan’Dale’s gadget/slot usage is perfect with a weak offensive line. His low ADOT means we don’t need to depend on them, He should rack up plenty of manufactured touches.
I expect the Giants to be trailing, given the 12-point spread. When forced into a passing game script, I like targeting receivers that are running these shallow routes to capitalize against the deep-safety coverages they should be facing.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN WR) Over 3.0 receptions
Game: Titans at Colts, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
I expect Westbrook-Ikhine to keep stepping up with the Treylon Burks injured. That leaves DeAndre Hopkins as the only legit target, with NWI being the WR2 again.
Titans coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Ryan Tannehill have both shown to trust NWI over the past couple seasons, and the Titans will need to pass against a strong Colts defensive line that will gear up to stop Derrick Henry.
NWI posted a 5-54-1 line in this same situation last game, and I’m expecting another 6-plus target game. This unit is not strong, and we love targeting guys without much target competition. Finally, it’s a homecoming game as he played his college ball in Indiana.
David Montgomery (DET) Rush +Rec TD
Game: Panthers at Lions, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Based on price alone, Underdog is offering very good value here. This is priced between -160 and -205 on most sportsbooks, making this play stick out.
We saw the Lions dominate the redzone on the ground with Jamaal Williams scoring 17 touchdowns last season, and Montgomery is already recreating that magic in the same role.
Promising Detroit rookie Jahmyr Gibbs has been a no-show in the red zone, and I expect Monty to continue to coast in a good matchup. He’s scored a touchdown in every game this season, and I loved how much volume he had last week despite immediately coming back from injury and not practicing all week.
TJ Hockenson (MIN TE) 7+ targets
Game: Chiefs at Vikings, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday
Finally, we go to the highest total game of the week. These teams are top-5 in pass rate over expectation, and that should generate a fast-paced game with plenty of action.
The Chiefs’ secondary has been better than expected, and Vikings WR Justin Jefferson should see plenty of safety help over the top. I think Hockenson will continue to stack up those dependable targets as the safety blanket, especially in the 2-minute drill.
Minnesota will likely be playing from behind in this one, and Hockenson is the most consistent target in this offense. He cleared this target number in three of four games, with his one miss coming in a slow-paced game against Carolina with very minimal offense.
.svg){kind=icon}
.svg){kind=icon}