The regular season is over, and now we turn our eyes to something that can warm even the coldest of hearts: the MLB playoffs. All four Wild Card series – with best-of-3 formats -- begin Tuesday, and while there are clear favorites, there are always surprises. It’s unlikely 2023 will be an exception.
American League
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- DraftKings odds: Twins -125, Blue Jays +105
- Regular season head to head: Twins 3, Blue Jays 3
Minnesota was unchallenged in the second half of the AL Central, and that has as much to do with how atrocious the division was -- if not more so -- than how well the Twins played.
That said, Minnesota has one of the more intriguing lineups, ranking 10th in runs scored and seventh in slugging percentage despite hitting just .243 over their 162 games.
The calling card is their starting pitching. No team had more quality starts (76), and hurlers like Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez and Kenta Maeda give the Twins quality and quantity in their rotation. The bullpen has more question marks, but arms like Jhoan Duran, Emilio Pagan and Griffin Jax give them a solid core.
Toronto’s strength is also the starting pitching, which is all the more impressive when you consider the disastrous season that Alek Manoah -- a legitimate Cy Young candidate in 2022 -- “achieved” this summer. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios were all strong options for the Blue Jays in their respective campaigns, and southpaws Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun Jin Ryu gave Toronto solid depth in the backend.
Like Minnesota, the bullpen isn’t as strong as the starting five, but Jordan Romano remains one of the better closers in baseball while set-up arms like Erik Swanson, Yimi Garcia, and Tim Mayza are capable enough to get the ball to Romano in the ninth.
Despite big names in their lineup, the Toronto offense has disappointed. Bo Bichette had a.306/.339/.475 slash line, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Matt Chapman and Alejandro Kirk didn’t live up to expectations. The talent in the lineup is apparent based on their success in previous seasons, but Toronto was tied for 14th in runs and was carried by their pitching to win the final Wild Card spot.
Prediction: It’s understandable why the Twins are favorites. They have home field advantage, more depth and maybe extra motivation after last year’s quick exit. This should be a good one, but I’ll go Blue Jays in 3.
Rays vs. Rangers
- DraftKings odds: Rays -155, Rangers +130
- Regular season results: Rangers 4, Rays 2
Few offenses have been better than the Rays’, as they ranked fourth in runs scored (860), on-base percentage (.331) and slugging percentage (.445). Tampa Bay is famous for their platoon splits that frustrate fantasy managers, but Yandy Diaz won the batting title at .330 with a .933 OPS. Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Josh Lowe and Harold Ramirez -- just to name a few -- all had quality campaigns.
The Rays’ pitching is pretty darn good, too, even with season-ending injuries to pitchers Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen -- arms that would pitch at the top of many rotations. Zack Eflin was one of the best signings of the winter, while Tyler Glasnow returned from injury to strike out 162 hitters over 120 innings.
As usual, the Rays also have one of the best bullpens -- although the team did lose Jason Adam to injury recently -- with hurlers like Pete Fairbanks, Colin Poche and Robert Stephenson leading a deep group.
The Texas Rangers might have the best middle infield in baseball, with Marcus Semien and Corey Seager putting up star performances and more than living up to their lavish contracts. There’s plenty of offensive depth here beyond those stars, with Adolis Garcia mashing 39 homers, Josh Jung enjoying a strong rookie campaign with 23 round-trippers and a solid .781 OPS, and the recent addition of top prospect Evan Carter to the lineup (.306/.413/.645 in 62 at-bats).
The pitching doesn’t compare to the offensive talent, and starters Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Jon Gray were injured, but Scherzer and Gray could pitch in the postseason if Texas advances past this round.
Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery are no slouches, but the loss of those arms on top of a bullpen that has scuffled mightily over the past month-plus makes this the weakest pitching staff still playing in the American League. If this leads to a pair of 1-0 wins for Texas over the week, I can only apologize.
Prediction: Tampa Bay will get at least two games at home, and no team in the American League was better in their own confines -- 53-28 at Tropicana Field. The Rangers were mediocre on the road (40-41), and the mediocre pitching staff doesn’t inspire confidence. As much as I love the Texas lineup, the home field advantage along with the pitching problems seems too tough to overcome. Rays in 3.
National League
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- DraftKings odds: Brewers -170, Diamondbacks +145
- Regular season results: Diamondbacks 4, Brewers 2
Milwaukee spent 122 days in first place and played .600 baseball in the second half of the season. The Brew Crew led MLB in ERA (3.71) and batting average against (.226), and ranked second in WHIP (1.19). Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta gives the Brewers as good of a postseason rotation as there is, and Milwaukee can also turn to reliable southpaw Wade Miley if/when they’re able to advance to the NLDS.
Devin Williams is more than capable of closing, with 36 saves and a 1.53 ERA over 61 appearances. Uber-talented rookie Abner Uribe and pen mates Joel Payamps, Bryse Wilson and Hoby Milner give the Brewers a great chance of holding leads.
But can Milwaukee score enough in October? The Brewers ranked 17th in runs scored with a paltry .240 average and .385 slugging percentage, among the worst in the National League. William Contreras and Christian Yelich had strong seasons and there are talented young players like Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick in the outfield. Milwaukee will have to pitch its way through the postseason.
The Diamondbacks backed their way into the final playoff spot – losing the final four games of the regular season – but they deserve credit for reaching the postseason just two years after losing 110 games.
It’s a team sport, but Arizona owes much of its success to star rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll and his 25 homers, 54 stolen bases and 5.4 WAR. Arizona has other thumpers as well. Christian Walker had 33 HRs and an .830 OPS, Ketel Marte rebounding from his disappointing 2022 with 25 homers and an .844 OPS and Lourdes Gurriel drove in 82 runs while going deep 24 times in his first year with the D-Backs.
Arizona and Milwaukee match up evenly in terms of the lineup, but pitching is a mismatch. The Diamondbacks will have ace Zac Gallen on regular rest for Game 2 with Merrill Kelly another solid option for Game 3 if necessary, but the rest of the staff leaves a lot to be desired. The deadline addition of Paul Sewald did help solidify the closing role, but the rest of the bullpen has major question marks. There’s a reason Arizona ranked at or near the bottom third in baseball in ERA (4.48), WHIP (1.32) and batting average against (.251).
Prediction: Weird things happen in the postseason, but both NL series seem like mismatches. I can see Gallen perhaps stealing a game for the D-Backs, but the Milwaukee pitching staff is too good to pick against in this one, with all due respect to a very talented young baseball team. Brewers in 2.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
- DraftKings odds: Phillies -170, Marlins +155
- Regular season results: Marlins 7, Phillies 6
How they got here: The Phillies never challenged for the division title, but that has more to do with how well Atlanta played than anything Philadelphia “did wrong.” After missing the first month-plus of the season, Bryce Harper was excellent with a .900 OPS while adding 21 homers despite getting just 457 at-bats.
- Trea Turner scuffled to begin his first season with the defending NL champs but rebounded late to put up 26 round-trippers and steal 30 bases.
- Kyle Schwarber proved batting average didn’t matter as he went deep 47 times with a solid .347 on-base percentage despite just a .197 batting mark.
- Bryson Stott led Philadelphia in WAR at 4.4 with excellent defense at second base along with 15 homers and 31 stolen bases.
The Phillies have the most complete lineup on the National League side of the Wild Card series. The pitching isn’t bad, either, but does offer a few more question marks.
Zack Wheeler had another solid campaign, and Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez were good enough, even with Aaron Nola having his worst season. The bullpen also is in better shape for October, with the return of Jose Alvarado from injury providing a major boon, and a bounceback season from Craig Kimbrel helping solidify the final innings.
No one projected the Marlins to be a postseason team, and while there’s no denying Miami took advantage of the lack of competitors outside of the “big four” along with some luck, it’s still a fun story.
The Fish went 31-11 in one-run games despite a bullpen ERA of 4.37 that ranked 11th in the National League, but there is talent in the relief corps with arms like Tanner Scott, AJ Puk and deadline-add David Robertson capable of getting the job done.
It’s the starting pitching, however, that gives Miami a shot. Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett showed why they were once considered top prospects, and while Eury Perez struggled to end the year, the 20-year-old also showed immense promise with an arsenal that can give hitters fits in October.
The Marlins ranked fourth in batting average, but that figure is carried by Luis Arraez, who hit .354 after joining Miami in an offseason deal with the Twins. Jake Burger also has been excellent after being acquired in a deadline deal with the White Sox, and Josh Bell was solid in his time with the Marlins after basically being sold to Miami from Cleveland.
All that said, this is easily the worst lineup that will be playing in October, as the Marlins ranked 26th in runs scored this season with just 668.
Prediction: Again, weird things happen in October, but on paper, this is a mismatch. Not only are the Phillies the better roster, but they’re also a team that has postseason experience that reached the World Series just last year. It’s impossible for me to say anything but Phillies in 2, but crazier things have happened.
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