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We’ve made it to our first Sunday Night Football game of the 2023 season. It’s been a long summer waiting for Carrie Underwood to bless our televisions again, and it’s one of the NFL’s best rivalries --the New York Giants vs the Dallas Cowboys.

Game

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, 8:20 p.m. ET

Betting Odds (DraftKings)

Line: Cowboys -3.5

Moneyline: Cowboys -180, Giants +150

Over/Under: 45.5 points

Team ranks (2022)

Cowboys

Points for: 26.8 PPG (4th)

Points allowed: 19.7 (6th)

Giants

Points for: 21.2 (18th)

Points allowed: 22.8 (22nd)

Key Injuries to Watch

Cowboys

• Tyler Smith, LG (hamstring) -- Doubtful
• Tyron Smith, LT (ankle) -- Questionable

Giants

• Darren Waller, TE (hamstring) -- Questionable
• Wan’Dale Robinson, WR (knee) --Doubtful

The Smiths make up the left side of the Cowboys’ offensive line. If both can’t go, the Giants’ pass rush may have a greater impact than we expect. The Cowboys’ run game may also not be as effective. Tyler Smith is the more likely of the two to not suit up.

Waller was a late addition to the injury report and was likely injured during practice. He is a game-time decision as the Giants are expected to test out the hamstring before the game. Waller has a history of hamstring issues, so expect the G-Men to tread lightly with an entire season ahead.

If Waller were to sit, Daniel Bellinger and Lawrence Cager would slide into prominent tight end roles.

Despite coming off the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list ahead of the season, Robinson will need more time to recover before he is a full go.

Bell cow RBs/Big Prices (DraftKings)

Captain Prices

• Tony Pollard, RB, $16,500
• Saquon Barkley, RB, $15,900
• CeeDee Lamb, WR, $15,600
• Dak Prescott, QB, $15,000
• Daniel Jones, QB, $14,100
• Darren Waller, TE, $12,600
• Brandin Cooks, WR, $10,800
• Isaiah Hodgins, WR, $9,600

Flex Prices

• Tony Pollard, RB, $11,000
• Saquon Barkley, RB, $10,600
• CeeDee Lamb, WR, $10,400
• Dak Prescott, QB, $10,000
• Daniel Jones, QB, $9,400
• Darren Waller, TE, $8,400
• Brandin Cooks, WR, $7,200
• Isaiah Hodgins, WR $6,400

Tony Pollard is taking over lead running back duties in Dallas. With Ezekiel Elliott no longer an option, Pollard should have ample opportunity to put his stamp on the offense. He had ankle surgery in the offseason, but all signs point to him being the bell cow that fantasy managers have been clamoring for since 2021.

Pollard gets to kick off the season against a Giants run defense that allowed the second-most yards per carry (5.2), the sixth-most rushing yards per game (144), and the most yards per reception to backs. For the explosive Pollard, who can turn any play into a house call, this is a great recipe to start the season.

As mentioned earlier, the Cowboys’ offensive line could be in trouble on the left side. The Giants’ defense is young, but on the interior Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence can make it a long night for Dak Prescott.

If Kayvon Thibodeaux makes a leap in his second season, the Giants’ pass rush can be a force. This would help mask their youth at DB, as they are expected to start two rookie cornerbacks.

If Waller does indeed make his debut, expect him to produce at an elite level. The Dallas defense allowed touchdown passes at the fourth highest rate last season. They allowed nine of those from the slot, and Waller is a menace from there. He ran 60 percent of his routes last season from the slot for the Raiders.

CeeDee Lamb should be busy, and likely is the captain worth paying for in your lineups. Our Contrarian Edge Optimizer projects Lamb for the third most fantasy points overall in Week 1. He flat out torched the Giants’ secondary last season on a 37% target share in those games.

The Giants’ defense loves to blitz. They blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL last season (43% of the time), which will leave Lamb to eat up one-on-one matchups.

Sneaky options

Brandin Cooks, Cowboys WR -- $7,200

Cooks is fascinating. He’s now on his fourth NFL team, and in his first season with every team he had at least 1,000 yards. The veteran is entering his 10th season and he’s still only 29. Reports out of Cowboys camp all summer was how shockingly explosive Cooks was on his routes.

The Giants are starting rookies Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins at cornerback. If the pass rush can’t impact Prescott, Cooks could torch a NYG secondary that allowed the sixth-highest yards per target last season. According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Cooks projects for the lowest ownership among the top names on Sunday night.

Jake Ferguson, Cowboys TE -- $4,800

Ferguson fills the void left by Dalton Schultz, who left in free agency to the Texans. The former fourth-round pick will likely be Dak’s new receiving option at tight end until rookie second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker proves he’s ready.

Ferguson has run-after-the-catch ability, which he flashed last season. Dak’s TEs have accrued at least 90 targets each season in his career. At 6’5’’, Ferguson is a valuable red zone threat.

Parris Campbell, Giants WR -- $4,400

This is strictly a matchup-based play. If Waller is ruled out, it would be wise to get Campbell into the lineup, with the Cowboys being vulnerable guarding the slot. The Dallas defense is strong on the outside with Trevon Diggs and newly acquired former Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore.

Expect Giants quarterback Daniel Jones to utilize quick throws to the veteran Campbell to avoid the pass rush of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. We saw how Jones utilized slot man Richie James last season. Why not Parris in 2023?

Prediction

Many believe in these Cowboys, who have one of the best two-way rosters in the NFL, to be a strong NFC contender. Some analysts are even picking them to win the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the underdog G-Men are chomping at the bit to repeat their 2022 success.

The Cowboys have defeated the Giants four straight times, and the only victory Daniel Jones has over the Cowboys came in Week 18 back in 2020 in a game Dak Prescott didn’t play in.

I expect that trend to continue tonight. The Giants’ youth in the secondary versus the Cowboys’ veteran wide receivers will prove too much to overcome.

Cowboys 27, Giants 20

Weather Report

There’s great baseball weather expected across the country except for games in the Northeast.

Yankees vs. Brewers (Bronx, NY) 1:35 pm ET– There’s a strong likelihood of thunderstorms in the NYC area throughout the day. They may face a myriad of delays squeezing in this interleague matchup.

Phillies vs. Marlins (Philadelphia) 1:05 pm ET – Nearly identical to the NYC forecast, rain and thunderstorms are expected to be abundant throughout Sunday in the City of Brotherly Love. The Phillies are scheduled to play a doubleheader on Monday so expect the two sides to somehow squeeze this one in.

Red Sox vs. Orioles (Boston) 1:35 pm ET – Rainy weather is expected to interrupt this AL East showdown. They close out the season against each other at the end of the month so they can push for a doubleheader then.

Injury Report

Luis Rengifo, Angels SS (biceps) -- Rengifo suffered a torn bicep in the on-deck circle in Saturday’s game. He will miss the remainder of the season.

Mickey Moniak, Angels OF (back) -- Moniak has been scratched from the lineup for three consecutive games with back tightness. There is a chance the Angels place him on the IL as they are firmly out of contention.

Shohei Ohtani, Angels RHP-DH (oblique) -- Ohtani sat for his sixth straight game Saturday, and it’s expected he will be out of the lineup again Sunday. This issue is separate from the torn UCL in his elbow so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Angels shut down the superstar. He is still considered day-to-day.

Mookie Betts, Dodgers OF (foot) – The Dodgers are calling Mookie’s foot injury a bone bruise after undergoing CT scans and an MRI. Manager, Dave Roberts has said Betts likely won’t play until next week.

Christian Yelich, Brewers OF (back) – The former MVP was scratched from Saturday’s lineup as a precaution, but it sounds like he won’t miss more time.

Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)

• Gerrit Cole vs. MIL: $12,000
• Clayton Kershaw $10,800 (FanDuel)
• Pablo Lopez vs. NYM: $10,500
• Corbin Burnes vs. NYY: $10,200
• Zack Eflin vs. SEA: $9,200
• Eduardo Rodriguez vs. CWS: $9,100
• Jesus Luzardo vs. PHI: $8,900
• Jose Berrios vs. KC: $8,800

It’s Sunday and that means it’s aces wild across the league. You can insert some big names into your lineups. Among those aces is the frontrunner for AL Cy Young Gerrit Cole. He is the most expensive option on the slate for good reason. Cole has the third best ERA in baseball at 2.90 and he’s fifth in the league in strikeouts. He’s first in quality starts so it would be wise to fit him into your lineup.

On the other side Corbin Burnes will look to match zeros with Cole on Sunday. He’s not a sure bet to do so as he has struggled a bit more in day games with a 4.69 ERA compared to a 3.22 ERA at night. It also could be a fruitful decision to avoid both aces in the Bronx on Sunday as rain could interrupt their starts. Track the forecast pregame before inserting Cole or Burnes.

Jose Berrios’ matchup against the Royals at home looks great on paper, but this is one you may want to take a closer look at before making the decision to put him in your lineup. Despite pitching well in his last start versus the A’s, he had allowed five earned runs in back-to-back starts and finished August with an abysmal 5.53 ERA. He faced the Royals earlier this season and allowed 9 hits and 8 Earned Runs. He can redeem himself Sunday though as he has been lights out in day games throwing to a tune of a 2.06 ERA in 8 starts.

Pablo Lopez has shown brilliant flashes at times this season. He currently sits fourth in the league in strikeouts, and he has been excellent since the All-Star break. He has thrown to a 3.02 ERA but somehow, he’s been lucky. Opponents’ batting average is up to .275 post All-Star compared to .220 pre-All-Star. The Mets still present a formidable lineup with the likes of Lindor and Alonso but with some young guys now inserted New York is tied with the third lowest batting average since the All-Star break. The Mets lineup also projects well off Lopez so it's a true roll of the dice to pay for Pablo on Sunday.

Sneaky Option

Tanner Bibee vs. LAA: $9,500 (FanDuel)

This feels real great inserting into our lineups. The Angels will likely be without some dangerous bats moving forward -- Ohtani, Rengifo, and Moniak to name a few. Bibee has been sneaky good this season. He’s been the king of consistency going 14 straight starts allowing three earned runs or less. Over this span he has a 2.55 ERA, bringing his ERA on the year down to 3.05.

On Sunday, he will face an Angels lineup that has scored the third FEWEST runs since Aug. 1 and owns the seventh worst strikeout rate. With aces near the top of the board, expect the ownership rate to be somewhat low compared to other arms on Sunday.

Stack Attack

Dodgers vs. Nationals (Trevor Williams)

• C Will Smith $5,500
• 1B Freddie Freeman $6,100
• 3B Max Muncy $5,000
• OF JD Martinez $5,200
• OF David Peralta $3,200

The Dodgers are having a tough time on their current road trip, but they get a juicy matchup with Trevor Williams on Sunday to close out their series in Washington. They’ll be without Mookie at least another game but Williams presents the perfect get-right spot. He allowed six earned runs in five innings in his lone start versus the Dodgers this season.

To no surprise Freeman bats .375 in his career versus Williams. Martinez is 2 for 5 with a homerun, Muncy 3 for 5, and Peralta .381 in 21 at-bats. Williams has also been terrible in day games with a 6.64 ERA in 13 starts. It also helps that the Nats bullpen owns the fourth worst ERA. I would get as many Dodgers in your lineups as you can.

Twins vs. Mets (Tylor Megill)

• 2B Jorge Polanco $4,400
• 3B Royce Lewis $4,800
• OF Willi Castro $3,000
• SS Carlos Correa $4,200

The American League Central leaders are a dominant force at Target Field. They are sixth in MLB in OPS, HRs, and slugging percentage at home this season. Megill presents a friendly matchup for the Twinkies. His home/away splits are eye opening. His 7.93 road ERA compared to his 3.43 ERA at Citi Field makes us salivate over the Twins lineup on Sunday.

Every week I’ll be examining the touchdown market, and putting together a parlay of my favorite selections. Along the way, you’ll also get a couple longshot selections that are worth some beer money. Week 1 normally has pretty efficient pricing in this market, but I’m expecting to find some great value this season.

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Top Week 1 Anytime TD Props

Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders: +210 DraftKings‍

Antonio Gibson has been one of my favorite touchdown looks all week. While he and Brian Robinson will both compete for those red zone angles, I think there is room for everyone to score! Robinson profiles as the higher-volume rusher, but even last year, when Gibson was bordering on irrelevancy, he managed to be a red zone threat despite the low overall volume. Now combine that with how Eric Bieniemy used McKinnon in the red zone last year, and I’m feeling pretty good about Gibson's chances to be heavily involved. He has always been very efficient in the red zone, and his receiving + rushing abilities open up the playbook and make the defense respect his receiving chops.

‍A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: +140 Caesars‍

A.J. Brown is always a player I like targeting, and I think he profiles to dominate this weekend. While Hurts is usually the only Eagle I focus on in the red zone, I think the Patriots' pass-rushing core with Judon/Uche represents a little more of a unique matchup, with more speed than any other pass-rushing LB core in the league. Judon led the league in sacks on scrambles, while Uche finished 5th. They are in a better place than most to contain Hurts. Additionally, coaches have had a whole season to game plan against the QB sneak play, and I would hope Coach Bill has a plan for that. Brown has dominant numbers against man coverage, and the Patriots played the third-most man coverage snaps last season. I always express the importance of WRs having the capability to score both inside and outside of the redzone, and we know Brown is one of the few guys who can do both at a high level.

Editor's Note: Place your DFS lineups with confidence with Fantasy Sports Logic's Contrarian Edge Optimizer. This incredibly robust tool features projections from several industry leaders, but also blends them together in a separate proprietary set of projections. Take a 7-day test drive for just $1 and check out features like Contrarian Mode, Stack Attack, upload custom projections and much more!

J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens: +110 MGM ‍

J.K. Dobbins is another target I like on Sunday, and I’m surprised he’s priced above even money across the board. This is one of those situations where Baltimore should dominate. Not only were the Texans unimpressive in the preseason, and they still have a number of question marks around who is even starting. Baltimore is the heaviest favorite on the board and will be the most popular survivor selection. While I'm a big fan of Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins is the clear starter for this lineup. The Ravens are expected to throw a lot this season, but once we get in the red zone, I expect a heavy dose of Dobbins. Working with one of the highest implied team totals on the slate doesn’t hurt; we will have plenty of opportunities.

Week 1 TD Parlay: Antonio Gibson/AJ Brown/JK Dobbins +1430 DK

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Week 1 Anytime TD Longshots

Alec Ignold, Miami Dolphins, +1100 MGM‍

Ingold became the second-highest paid fullback in the league and is another one of my longshot selections. The Chargers were one of the worst rush defenses in football last season and are expected to struggle once again. We already saw creative usage from Ignold in preseason, and Mike McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, which utilizes the position more than any other team around. With the Dolphins being so low on running backs, and this being the highest total game of the weekend, I think there are plenty worse bets to make.

Cole Turner, Washington Commanders: +1500 FanDuel

And if you want an absolutely degenerate TD to sprinkle, then I'll be going with Cole Turner at +1500 on FanDuel. The second-year TE is absolutely huge, was a great red-zone weapon in college and formed a very good connection with Howell in preseason. The Ghost of Logan Thomas is playing with negative ACLs, and I think Turner is involved early! Good price, here.

Value Finders

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If you want a chance to take down your DFS contest, then you are going to have to find the

diamonds in the rough. Getting big value production for a lower price is the difference between

a good team and a great one!

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This article will serve as a place to find those roses growing from the concrete and take down

your DFS contest. Now, these guys are not going to carry your team, but they will anchor them

with solid production at a great cost (all salaries courtesy of DraftKings).

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QB: Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints ($5,300, QB18 at cost)

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The only thing that was more shocking than putting ‘New Orleans Saints’ after Carr’s name, was

the fact that he is the QB18 at cost. This is a guy who is not afraid to push the ball downfield. He

now has the weapons--with a healthy Michael Thomas and Chris Olave, who is looking to build

upon a great rookie year. We have yet to mentioned they are playing a Titans’ defense that

gave up the THIRD most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position in 2022! This

secondary still projects to be bad, and Carr should take advantage in a dome environment.

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RB: Deon Jackson, Indianapolis Colts ($4,100, RB35 at cost)

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This is surprising, yet not shocking, many will have to google who Deon Jackson is. The

hardcore Degens remember. We remember WELL! In Johnathan Taylor’s absence last season vs

the Jaguars, Jackson finished as the RB1!!! With Zack Moss downgraded to doubtful (arm),

Jackson slides into the starting role against those same Jaguars. The Jaguars bring back the

same defense that allowed Jackson to torch them for ten catches for 79 yards and a

touchdown. This is also the same defense that gave up the second most receiving yards to

running backs in 2022. Anthony Richardson electing to extend plays with his legs rather than

check down passes is a concern, but at this price, I love Jackson to have a solid fantasy day.

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WR: Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers ($4,400, WR35 at cost)

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The Packers released their first injury report with their top two wide receivers questionable

with hamstring injuries. Christian Watson was later ruled out and Romeo Doubs was optimistic

to play. Doubs has flashed in spurts during last year, however, injuries have been his downfall. If

you trust the optimism of the coaching staff that his injury is minor, then we should feel confident Doubs has proven he

can step up without Watson in the lineup. In three games without Watson last season, Doubs

racked up nine catches 109 yards and two touchdowns averaging 12.5 fantasy points. This game

not only will he not have Watson, but also no Allen Lazard or Randall Cobb who jumped ship

with Aaron Rodgers. Expect a very productive day for Doubs.

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TE: Hayden Hurst, Carolina Panthers ($3,000, TE24 at cost)

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Welcome back to the Carolinas Hayden! They are excited to have you! As much like the Packers

they were decimated by the early injury report, i.e. D.J. Chark already ruled out and

Adam Thielen is questionable with an ankle injury. Terrace Marshall Jr. was also limited

majority of the week with a back injury. Hurst may find himself as a huge value at tight end, simply

because there are not many other options for a rookie Bryce Young. Rookie quarterbacks tend

to rely heavy on their tight ends for check downs and safe passes--so this is more of a volume

play for me. Hurst could stumble into a heavy target day against an Atlanta Falcons defense

that allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game to the tight end position last year. The big dog has got to eat week 1, fire up the kibble!

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Happy money hunting!

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Weather Report

For the first time in a while, there’s a good chance of rain playing an impact on multiple games. The weather in Philadelphia makes a rainout likely between the Phillies and Marlins, and there’s a chance for a delay/postponement between the Yankees and Brewers, Dodgers and Nationals, Orioles and Red Sox. Buyer beware.

Injury Report

Mookie Betts, foot: The good news is Betts avoided structural damage and has a good chance to be back well before the end of the regular season. The bad news is that it appears that the MVP candidate will not be in the lineup for any of the games against the Nationals, so it’ll be at least a couple more days before he’s hitting at the top of that loaded Los Angeles lineup. Chris Taylor is an intriguing option to use in Betts’ place in DFS lineups.

Top Priced Starting Pitchers for Main Slate (DraftKings)

• Nathan Eovaldi vs. OAK $10,400
• Charlie Morton vs. PIT $9,700
• Logan Webb vs. COL $9,500
• Seth Lugo vs. HOU $8,600
• Lucas Giolito vs. LAA $8,300
• Paul Blackburn vs. TEX $8,200
• Cristian Javier vs. SD $8,000
• Brayan Bello vs. TB: $7800

There are not many aces taking the bump, but there are some hurlers who have the stuff/command to put together strong starts in quality matchups. Eovaldi tops the list in large part because of his matchup against the lowly Athletics but is coming off a disaster of a start against the Astros where he was pulled in the second inning. Those struggles actually make Eovaldi more intriguing to me as a bounce back candidate for a Texas team that desperately needs to pick up wins over the final three or so weeks of the year.

The Padres have been as disappointing as any team in baseball during the 2023 season, but that’s more to do with the lineup than the starting pitching (for the most part, anyway), and Lugo has shown he has the necessary tools to be a starter at the highest level. He’s posted a 3.49 ERA so far in 2023, and that number has dropped thanks to three-of-four starts seeing the right-hander give up zero runs while posting a solid -- if unspectacular -- 29/8 K/BB ratio since the start of August over 32.1 innings.

The Astros are a tough lineup to crack, but it does make sense to ride the hot hand of Lugo. You just might want to pair him with a starter who is a little more likely to miss bats for Saturday’s slate.

Sneaky Option

Dylan Dodd vs. PIT $5600

Dodd is being called up by Atlanta to make a start against the Pirates, and if he was facing the overwhelming majority of lineups, he’d be someone to consider stacking against rather than using in a lineup. He struggled in his limited time in the majors and hasn’t exactly dominated at the highest level, but he does have a solid arsenal, and since we’re big into contrarian plays, Dodd’s chance to get a win against a mediocre at best Pittsburgh team makes him worth consideration. Just be prepared for a wide variety of outcomes here.

Stack Attack

Padres vs. Astros (Cristian Javier)

• C Luis Campusano $2,900
• 1B Garrett Cooper $2,700
• 3B Manny Machado $5,200
• OF Trent Grisham $6,600

Javier has had plenty of success in this league but has not been an effective option as of late. In fact, the right-hander has seen his ERA inflate to 4.65 after an August where he registered a 6.17 ERA while walking 16 batters in 23.1 innings against just 16 strikeouts. He did strike out eight against the Yankees while allowing three runs over six frames, but it’s pretty clear that Javier doesn’t have his best stuff nor command right now. The Padres make sense as a cost-efficient streaming option for this contest.

Guardians vs. Angels (Tyler Anderson)

• 1B Josh Naylor $4,400
• 2B Andres Gimenez $4,000
• OF Ramon Laureno $3,300
• OF Myles Straw $2,200

If fantasy players aren’t into using San Diego’s lineup, they may want to take a close look at the Guardians facing off against Anderson. The left-handed hurler has really scuffled as of late, and after posting an awful 8.10 ERA in the month of August over five starts, he had another mediocre effort Sunday against the Athletics where he allowed three runs in 5.1 innings of work.

The best part about this stack is that no one is going to break the bank, so you can use these four options and still go after some star talent to fill out the lineup. There’s simply no reason to trust Anderson as an option right now. Take advantage of it.

Just to preface, I’m not saying I don’t like the guys I list down below – I don’t like them at cost. If you can find cheaper alternatives, and ideally more production, then by all means!

Starting today, every Friday I’ll be dropping my list of DFS ‘fades’, so be sure to check back in and stay tapped in throughout the season so you know who to insert and NOT to insert in your lineups (all salaries courtesy of DraftKings).

QB: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams ($5,700, QB12 at cost)

Just ranked outside of the top 10 as far as QB salaries, Stafford is a guy I’m staying far and away from. Not only will he be without his favorite target in Cooper Kupp, he’ll be going up against one-time teammate Bobby Wagner, who’ll surely have inside information on some of the things the Rams like to do offensively.

In addition, Stafford and the Rams are playing in a hostile environment in Seattle with an unproven group of wide receivers and a questionable offensive line. Not to mention, with LAR-SEA being an in-division affair, points could be at a premium. You can do a lot better than Stafford at QB in your lineups for this weekend.

RB: Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings ($6,500, RB11 at cost)

Statistically speaking, Mattison is set to go up against the wall that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense. As stout as they get, I’m not sure Mattison is going to find much running room, especially when he’s not the most explosive back (career yards per carry average of 4.1).

Volume will be there, I’m just not sure the efficiency and passing down work will be. Given the cost, you’re better off saving some money and going with a cheaper alternative who has an easier matchup.

WR: Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts ($6,200, WR18 at cost)

I like Michael Pittman a lot more in real life than I do in fantasy as a wide receiver. Yes, he’s the Colts’ No. 1, but is the volume going to be there in what’s expected to be a run-heavy offense?

Also, how accurate will Anthony Richardson be in the pros? Having displayed a lot of chemistry with fellow rookie Josh Downs, I’m not sure the chemistry will be there right away with Pittman given the other options at pass catcher.

TE: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers ($5,700, TE3 at cost)

Kittle is another player I adore more in real life than I do in fantasy. While Brock Purdy altered that narrative somewhat with his penchant for targeting Kittle in the latter portion of the season last year, Kittle has been nursing a groin injury & more likely than not won’t be at 100%.

Yes, Kittle is one of the toughest players in the NFL and has a tendency to play injured, but given the dearth of options at Purdy’s disposal, coupled with the fact that Pittsburgh’s defense is no joke (not to mention, Heinz Field will be a very hostile environment) I’m staying away from Kittle this week, especially at a salary just south of $6,000 on top of the fact that there’s a bunch of tight ends flying under the radar.

FLEX/BONUS: Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos ($6,600, WR13 at cost)

Hamstring injuries can be tricky, and they tend to linger too (ask Cooper Kupp). Given the nature of that, I suspect the Broncos will keep Jeudy on a pitch count IF he even plays.

The matchup might be juicy against the Raiders & their porous secondary, but his health is not & won’t be until Week 2 at the earliest. There are plenty of receivers you can insert into your lineups that are not only cheaper, but that are 100% healthy. (Jahan Dotson anyone?)

At long last, our first taste of non-preseason NFL football in seven months. A big shoutout to the Lions for showing the world they’re no longer “the same Lions” (Philly lost a good one in C.J. Gardner-Johnson by the way). I don’t care that the Chiefs didn’t have Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, they’re the defending Super Bowl champs for crying out loud!

Thankfully, the full NFL slate is ahead of us, with 15 matchups to go in Week 1. Starting today, I’ll be here every week giving you guys the best bargains when setting your DFS lineups to help give you the best bang for your buck! (all salaries courtesy of DraftKings)

‍QB: Sam Howell, Washington Commanders ($4,900, QB24 at cost)

The second-cheapest QB you can possibly plug into your lineups, Howell and the Commanders have the best possible matchup against a Arizona Cardinals team that’s expected to be the worst in the NFL.

After trading 25-year old Isaiah Simmons – who still has his best football in front of him – for the measly cost of a 7th-round pick to the Giants, it’s obvious the Cardinals are “tanking.”

With star WR Terry McLaurin expected to play (toe), Howell will have his full allotment of weapons, and you can’t forget his legs! With his mobility, his upside is a lot higher than what his price tag would indicate. Start the former UNC star with confidence.

RB: Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks ($4,800, RB40 at cost)

With fellow RB Ken Walker nursing a groin injury and having been limited at practice this week, Charbonnet should have ample opportunity in his rookie debut if Seattle opts to play it safe with Walker’s workload.

Being that the Hawks are a 5.5-point favorite at home against the Rams, the game script could be in favor of Seattle, meaning more potential opportunities for Charbonnet. He also offers more value in his ability to catch passes out of the backfield.

One more nugget to note: Intra-division matchups between the Rams and Seahawks typically result in lower-scoring slugfests. Do with that what you will.

WR: Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders ($5,000, WR33 at cost)

Although fellow receiver Terry McLaurin is expected to play in Week 1 despite having suffered turf toe a few weeks ago in the preseason, I don’t expect him to be at 100 percent. If that’s the case and Washington builds a commanding lead (no pun intended) early, I’d expect Washington to play it safe and preserve his long-term health by sitting him out the remainder of the game.

With that being a likely scenario given that Arizona’s roster is in shambles, Jahan Dotson should absolutely FEAST as Howell’s bonafide No. 1 WR. Having got off to a hot start in his rookie season last year with Carson Wentz at quarterback (4 TDs in his first 4 games), Dotson has shown a tendency to get open in the red zone and has showcased plenty of chemistry with Howell. I’m starting Dotson in ALL FORMATS of fantasy, daily or not.

WR: Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos ($5,200, WR29 at cost)

Injuries to fellow teammates seem to be a theme here, and I promise that was unintentional. In a matchup against a Raiders secondary that statistically speaking was one of the worst in the NFL last season, Courtland Sutton will be Russell Wilson’s No. 1 target whether or not Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) plays. (Jeudy won’t be at 100% and the chances of re-injury are real given the nature of lower body injuries like that).

While divisional matchups tend to be lower-scoring, Sean Payton, Russell Wilson and the Broncos have something to prove. Expect Sutton to be the primary beneficiary of that as he’s also been reportedly having the best training camp of his career.

Maybe we were all just a year early on Sutton? People forget that Sutton compiled a 1,000-yard receiving season in just his second season in the NFL in 2019, so the talent has always been there. Now he has both the talent, situation and head coach/play-caller.

TE: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns ($4,200, TE11 at cost)

With an over/under line of 47.5, there will be a lot of points scored between Cincinnati and Cleveland in an AFC North showdown. Typically, I love rostering/starting players that are expected to partake in shootouts, and Njoku should reap the benefits of such.

At 6-4, 246 pounds, with a 4.64 40-yard dash, Watson has never had such an athletic target at tight end. Also a guy that’s expected to receive plenty of volume in the red zone, I’d be surprised if Njoku didn’t finish at the top 10 at his position this week.

FLEX/BONUS: WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams ($3,000)

With a salary at just 3K, this rookie wideout should have ample opportunity with a team who runs 11 personnel more than any other team in the NFL!

Factor in the fact that Cooper Kupp will not be playing in Seattle, Nacua should be able to outplay his cost. If you’re looking for a dart throw at receiver, look no further than Nacua (just ask Matthew Stafford).

Weather Report

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Brewers at Yankees, 7:05 p.m.

There's inclement weather in the forecast in New York, but the most likely outcome appears to be a delayed start and play. There's some risk here, but it's unlikely there will be an in-game delay that would impact starting pitchers.

Dodgers vs. Nationals - 7:05 pm

There's also a chance of a delay in Washington, but it's almost impossible to forecast when that will take place. Regardless, both MacKenzie Gore and Emmet Sheehan aren't among the stronger options on Friday's slate among starting pitchers.

Baltimore vs. Boston - 7:10 pm

It's going to be extremely humid at Fenway Park, so it's highly likely the ball will be flying. There's a strong possibility this is a high-scoring series opener.

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Injury Report

Mookie Betts (foot)

X-rays came back negative after the Dodgers star fouled a ball off his foot during Thursday’s series finale against the Marlins. Fantasy managers should prepare for the possibility that he winds up sitting out Friday’s series opener against the Nationals.

Shohei Ohtani (oblique)

Angels manager Phil Nevin told reporters Thursday there’s a chance Ohtani is ready to return Friday against the Guardians after missing four consecutive contests due to right oblique tightness.

Austin Riley (illness)

Riley is expected to return to Atlanta’s lineup for the opener against the Pirates after sitting out Thursday’s contest against the Cardinals due to a stomach bug. There should be some clarity on his status well in advance of first pitch.

Lane Thomas (back)

Thomas figures to be ready for the Nationals in the opener against the Dodgers after missing a pair of contests this week due to back inflammation. Back issues can be complicated matters, but he’s had a couple days of extra rest to hopefully put the issue to bed.

Luis Rengifo (biceps)

Rengifo was removed Thursday against the Guardians with a left biceps strain and appears likely to wind up on the injured list. It’s a tough break as the 26-year-old has been hot at the dish of late, posting a .972 OPS over the last month.

Alex Verdugo (hamstring)

Verdugo is expected to return to Boston’s lineup for Friday’s series opener against the Orioles following a three-game absence due to left hamstring tightness.

Tim Anderson (neck)

Anderson is day-to-day after being scratched from Wednesday’s lineup due to neck stiffness. It would be Elvis Andrus starting at shortstop on Friday night if he’s not ready to return.

Matt Vierling (elbow)

Vierling was removed from Thursday’s contest against the Yankees with a right elbow contusion after being hit by an errant pickoff throw to first base.

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Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)

• Blake Snell vs. HOU: $10,800
• Kodai Senga vs. MIN: $10,000
• Jordan Montgomery vs. $OAK: 9,400
• Kyle Bradish vs. BOS: $9,200
• Kyle Harrison vs. COL: $9,000
• Griffin Canning vs. CLE: $8.800
• Eury Pérez vs. PHI: $8,800
• Hunter Brown vs. SD: $8,600
• Logan Allen vs. LAA: $8,400
• Yusei Kikuchi vs. KC: $8,200
• Mitch Keller vs. ATL: $8,100
• Bryce Elder vs. PIT $8,000
• Cristopher Sánchez vs. MIA: $7,800

Friday’s slate offers few quality matchups with both top-priced options Blake Snell and Kodai Senga facing strong offenses in challenging road tilts. The Rangers have been in an extended free-fall, but trade acquisition Jordan Montgomery has pitched extremely well since coming over from the Cardinals, compiling a solid 3.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 30/7 K/BB ratio across 35 innings (six starts). He'll face off against a struggling Oakland lineup that ranks 29th in runs scored since the All-Star break.

Perhaps the most intriguing option for fantasy managers is rookie southpaw Kyle Harrison, who offers immense strikeout potential and will face a Rockies’ lineup that struggles away from Coors Field’s high-octane offensive environment, and also ranks as one of the worst in baseball this season against left-handed pitching with a .668 OPS against southpaws.

There will undoubtedly be some variance for the 22-year-old top pitching prospect from a run-prevention standpoint, but he's piled up a staggering 21 punch outs in 15 1/3 innings over three starts since being called up last month from Triple-A Sacramento. He might be the best option on Friday's slate, especially from a pure upside standpoint.

Eury Pérez has blossomed into one of the premier young pitchers in baseball this season, compiling a sparkling 2.86 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 95/25 K/BB ratio across 78 2/3 innings (16 starts). However, he’s worked beyond the fifth inning just twice in five starts since returning to Miami's starting rotation mix last month.

He's notched at least five strikeouts in each of those outings, but he's facing a strong Philadelphia lineup at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, which limits his realistic ceiling on Friday night.

Sneaky Option

Luis Severino vs. Brewers: $5,500

Hear us out. Severino has been abysmal this season, but he appeared to figure some things out of late, allowing just four runs on 11 hits with an 11/1 K/BB ratio across 11 innings over his last two starts against the Tigers and Astros, respectively.

It would be challenging to recommend him against a familiar foe, but he’s facing a Milwaukee lineup that hasn’t seen him this year and has been one of the worst in baseball since the Midsummer Classic, posting a dreadful .702 OPS, which ranks fifth worst in baseball since the All-Star break.

It’s a decent matchup, especially with Colin Rea taking the ball for the Brewers on Friday evening, and it’s difficult not to recommend him as a sneaky option at such a manageable salary.

Stack Attack 

Mets vs. Twins (Dallas Keuchel)

• 1B Pete Alonso $4,900
• SS Francisco Lindor $4,800
• C Francisco Alvarez $3,600
• 2B/SS Ronny Mauricio $3,200
• OF DJ Stewart $3,000
• 3B Mark Vientos $2,200

Keuchel looked cooked during his brief time in the majors last year and hasn’t fared much better this season for the Twins, posting a bloated 5.06 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 8/7 K/BB ratio across 21 1/3 innings (five appearances, four starts).

The Mets have several right-handed platoon bats they can stack against the veteran southpaw on Friday evening in Minnesota, including rookie sluggers Ronny Mauricio, Francisco Alvares and Mark Vientos, in addition to veteran breakout DJ Stewart, assuming he's ready to go after missing a pair of contests earlier this week due to lower back tightness.

Giants vs. Rockies (Ty Blach)

• 2B Thairo Estrada $4,300
• 1B Wilmer Flores $3,900 
• OF Mitch Haniger $3,800
• 1B/3B J.D. Davis $3,500
• OF Luis Matos $2,500

It'll be lefty Ty Blach drawing the starting assignment on Friday night at Oracle Park in San Francisco, which sets the stage for the Giants' righty-mashing options to step into the starting lineup. The most notable stacking options here are Wilmer Flores, Mitch Haniger, Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis and Luis Matos. It's flown a bit under the radar, but Flores has been one of the premier hitters in baseball since the All-Star break, posting a robust .973 OPS with 13 homers and 27 RBI in 45 games since mid-July.

Friday offers your usual smorgasbord of quality and quantity, with key matchups like the Mariners taking on the Rays and the Cubs squaring off with the Diamondbacks that are accompanied with September doldrums like Guardians-Angels.

Andrew Abbott: 5.5 strikeouts - Over (Underdog)

Abbott had 8-plus ERA in August, but he bounced back nicely with 6.1 strong innings against the Cubs on Saturday. Tonight he’ll face a St. Louis lineup that ranks 19th in strikeouts, but there are hitters who offer swing-and-miss, and this is a relatively low total for a pitcher with Abbott’s stuff. Take a chance on Abbott to pile up some strikeouts.

Ronald Acuna: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

Would anyone be shocked if Acuna hit this total before the end of the first inning? The outfielder had another monster game Thursday with two home runs against the Cardinals, and he’s already gone deep four times in September. He’s hitting just .214 this month, but there’s too much talent and success to ever bet against Acuna reaching this total in 2023.

J.P. Crawford: 0.5 walks - Over (Underdog)

Crawford has been a revelation for the Mariners at the top of the lineup, and on top of hitting a respectable .269, he’s among the on-base percentage leaders in baseball at .386 thanks in large part to 81 walks. Tonight he faces Taj Bradley, who has issued 15 free passes over his last 26.2 innings over six appearances, and he’s walked at least four hitters in each of his last two starts. Even without elite power, Crawford’s ability to work counts makes him a great bet to draw a walk against a pitcher that just doesn’t have great control at this moment.

Kyle Harrison: 17.5 pitching outs - Under (Prizepicks)

There’s a lot of things to like about Harrison in the long-term, and he’s shown some flashes of brilliance in his short time in the majors. The one thing he hasn’t shown at any level thus far is efficiency, and it’s a tough task to bet on six innings for a rookie pitcher that relies on strikeouts and often has issues finding the strike zone. Harrison may pile up the Ks and hold a bad Colorado lineup in check, but you’re probably -- emphasis on probably -- looking at a pitcher that is going to be done after five innings or so.

Andrew Vaughn: 1.5 hits + runs + RBI - Higher (Underdog)

Vaughn was excellent in the final two games of the series against the Royals earlier in the week, picking up three hits in each of those contests and adding a pair of homers for good measure. The third pick of the 2020 draft will take on Reese Olson; a right-hander who did pitch well against the White Sox on Saturday with seven scoreless innings, but he only struck out one batter in that effort, and he’s a good bet for some regression. Ride the hot hand here with Vaughn, even with a less-than-spectacular supporting cast around him.

Blake Snell + Hunter Brown: 11.5 combined strikeouts - Higher (Prizepicks)

A fun one to close things out. Snell is the presumed Cy Young favorite while leading baseball in ERA (2.50) and ranking third in strikeouts (201), but he’ll be going up against a Houston lineup that scored a whopping 39 runs over the three-game series against the Rangers. The Guardians are the only team in the American League that is more difficult to strike out.

Still, there’s no denying Snell’s ability to miss bats, and while Brown has had more downs than ups in the second half of the season, he’s a good bet to put up a handful or so of punchouts against one of the most disappointing teams of 2023 in San Diego.

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The NFL season is finally here, and I couldn’t be happier! Every single week, I’ll be placing an Underdog/PrizePicks entry and breaking down each prop with analysis and key stats that will help you make money. Additionally, I will be using the Sportstopia DFS optimizer to guide my research, which you can sign up for!

Tyreek Hill -- 6.5 Receptions

One of the first props that immediately jumped off the page to me was Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions. While deciding between yards and receptions can be tough for a high-end receiver like Hill, he led the league in WR catches behind the line of scrimmage last season, which gives him a safer floor than most.

Additionally, the Dolphins have the most consantrated offense in football, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle making up more or their teams receiving more production than any other combo in the league!

This Dolphins-Chargers matchup sets up to be one of the highest scoring on the slate, and what better way to take advantage than by betting on the most explosive player in the game. Hill went over this number in 10 games last season, and 8/13 games with Tua averaging 7.2 receptions and 10.5 targets. I think this high tempo setup gives us plenty of opportunities today.

If you’ve heard me talk about Tua this offseason, you’ve probably heard the term "regression" in the same sentence. While he was the best QB in the league throwing over the middle, teams caught on and started to sell out defending that part of the field.

Forcing Tua to throw more to the boundaries is where the mistakes started, and I expect defenses to be ready for that. When he saw Tua struggle more, who did he look into? His number one target Tyreek Hill.

One of the best ways to use these apps like PrizePicks is by comparing their lines to traditional sportsbooks. Nick Chubb is currently -160 to -190 on every major book to score, yet he’s available to place here on PrizePicks, which is rarely the case for a prop with those odds.

Additionally, they normally only offer "rushing TD" but this includes receiving and passing, which is a big deal considering Kareem Hunt is out of town and Chubb would potentially earn some additional receiving work.

Chubb is already one of the best backs in the league, running behind an elite offensive line. He has a great history against Cincinnati as well, recording 916 total yards and 8 TDs over the course of nine career games.

Kareem Hunt has always been a great red zone back, averaging 6 TDs per year over his last 6 seasons with the Browns, but he’s left town, and there is nobody left to replace him.

Brian Robinson -- 57.5 rush yards

My Washington Commanders are currently -7-point favorites, likely for the only time this season. This means that this is likely the best game-script possible for Robinson, going against the team that is likely to end the season with the number one overall pick in the draft.

This Cardinals defense was a mess last season, and got significantly worse on defense losing JJ Watt, Zach Allen, and Marcus Golden from their line. This Cardinals defense is one of the worst week 1 units I’ve seen in awhile, and I expect the Washington backs to take advantage early and often.

Robinson was 8-4 to the over last season, despite returning very quickly from a gunshot injury. He averaged 17 carries per game, slowly begun to improve in efficiency metrics as he got healthier deep into the season.

Now that he’s got a full offseason to prep, I expect Robinson to look much better then he did last season. I was not a fan of his game at first, but his volume is secure, and he’s looked better and better as he’s been given time to heal and improve.

This is a smash spot for the second year back, and I look forward to fading Arizona often this season.

Finally PrizePicks has a promo for Dak Prescott to throw for 1 passing yard. This a reminder that these apps are posting tons of great promotions, and it’s our job to make them regret it! Always be vigilant for discounts and deals when you’re winning on the margins!

• Tyreek Hill o6.5 Receptions
• Nick Chubb o0.5 Rush+Rec+Pass TD’s
• Brian Robinson o57.5 Rush Yards
• Dak 1+ Pass Yard (Promo)