NBA Opening Week continues Thursday night, and we have two more games to select our Underdog and PrizePicks plays. The TNT doubleheader features two showdowns between four teams with championship aspirations.
The first game features an Eastern Conference clash as Giannis Antetokounmpo and his new teammate Damian Lillard battle reigning MVP Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers. The second matchup pegs the new-look Phoenix Suns against the Los Angeles Lakers in LA’s home opener.
The Bucks were a juggernaut at home last season, going 32-8. Giannis just renewed his contract with the Bucks, and he will be on a revenge tour all season long. I believe he will push for league MVP once again.
He has gone over this number in 15 of his last 16 matchups with the 76ers! That’s an insane rate that we can’t ignore. The Bucks made the most significant move in the offseason when they acquired Lillard, but they didn’t add to its frontcourt.
Brook Lopez will defend Embiid often, which leaves Giannis free to gobble up the boards in the Bucks opener.
Tyrese Maxey 21.5 Points (More) – PrizePicks
Maxey is in for a massive increase in usage with James Harden out. Apparently, the Beard was ready to rejoin his teammates, but the team left him at home. His future is in limbo which is likely going to plague Philadelphia until it is resolved.
One thing we can rely on is Maxey will lead the 76ers alongside Joel Embiid. In his last three games against the Bucks, Maxey has gone over this number. Milwaukee traded its best defender Jrue Holiday during the summer.
In 14 games last season without Harden, Maxey surpassed this number nine times, and in two of the unders, he finished with 21.
I expect this to be a popular pick tonight, but I still like it.
Tyrese Maxey 3 Rebounds (Higher) - Underdog
I’m double dipping with Maxey, who is primed for a breakout season. Many experts have believed in his talent, but he’s been sort of stuck waiting in the wings throughout his first three seasons. The 76ers need him to be an All-Star caliber player if they want to be a contender, and I think he will be.
Without Harden on the floor, he reeled in at least four rebounds in seven of 14 games and in two of his last three games versus the Bucks. Milwaukee was in the bottom half of the NBA in rebounds allowed per game last season, and Maxey will see increased minutes this season.
This number seems a bit low with his projected increase in usage.
Joel Embiid 4.5 Assists (More) - PrizePicks
Speaking of an increase in usage. How about the reigning MVP? While I expect Maxey to take a huge leap, Embiid is the primary ball handler for the 76ers.
In his last 6 games against the Bucks, Embiid has produced at least 5 assists 5 times. He played 15 games last season without Harden. He had at least 5 assists in 12 of them. That’s an 80% hit rate on this line.
We can count on Embiid to play big minutes and go over the number as he kicks off his 2023 season.
Anthony Davis 23.5 Points (More) -PrizePicks
I’m going back to the well on Davis, who disappeared in the opener against the Nuggets. The Lakers need AD to lead the way this season. He is the focal point of this team.
Davis led the Lakers in shot attempts in their opener but shot a poor percentage and didn’t make a shot in the second half.
The Suns shipped out Deandre Ayton for Jusuf Nurkic in the summer, and Nurkic isn’t known for his defense. It’s not often I agree with Stephen A., but Davis is a rollercoaster, and tonight should be a peak after his poor performance Tuesday.
On Sunday Night Football, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are on the East Coast to take on the New York Jets.
Game
New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 pm ET
Betting Odds (DraftKings)
Line: Chiefs -8.5, Jets +8.5
Moneyline: Chiefs (-410), Jets (+320)
Over/Under: 41
Team Ranks (2023)
Jets
Points for: 14 (32nd)
Points Allowed: 20.3 (12th)
Chiefs
Points For: 26 (9th)
Points Allowed: 13.3 (4th)
Key Injuries to Watch
Jets
DB Tony Adams (Hamstring) – Out
G Wes Schweitzer (Concussion) -- Out
Chiefs
LB Nick Bolton (Ankle) – Out
CB Jaylen Watson (Shoulder) - Out
The injuries aren’t considered altering for either side. Bolton is probably the most significant loss, but his absence likely won’t affect the Chiefs’ ability to keep the Jets’ struggling offense grounded.
Captain Prices (DraftKings)
Patrick Mahomes, QB $18,600
Travis Kelce, TE, $16,500
Garrett Wilson, WR, $14,400
Zach Wilson QB, $13,500
Isiah Pacheco, RB, $12,600
Breece Hall, RB, $11,700
Jerick McKinnon, RB, $10,200
Flex Prices (DraftKings)
Patrick Mahomes, QB $12,400
Travis Kelce, TE, $11,000
Garrett Wilson, WR, $9,600
Zach Wilson QB, $9,000
Isiah Pacheco, RB, $8,400
Breece Hall, RB, $7,800
Jerick McKinnon, RB, $6,800
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Patrick Mahomes is projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate over at DraftKings -- 43%, with KC tight end Travis Kelce next at 24.5%.
Regarding flex positions, it’s projected to be much more balanced. In Showdown lineups, seven players are projected to be owned in over 30% of lineups.
This is Mahomes’ first career game at MetLife Stadium. He and the Chiefs offense must come with their best, because the Jets’ defense is its strength.
Offensively, the Jets send out 2021 No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson to lead a unit that has been pitiful. He has the lowest QBR (34.4) in the NFL since he entered the league. The Jets rank last in points scored, total yards, and first downs. And the Chiefs’ defense are No. 4 in points allowed.
The Chiefs are an 8.5-point favorite, and Mahomes has a 37-3 won-loss record in games where he’s a touchdown favorite or greater.
Captain Option
Travis Kelce, Chiefs, $16,500 - Captain Slot
With Mahomes projected to be the highest-owned Captain, Kelce is a great alternative in lineups. The Optimizer agrees. A Mahomes-Kelce stack is practically required.
Mahomes and the Chiefs got things back on track against a terrible Bears defense in Week 3 as he threw for 272 yards and three touchdowns, Kelce was on the receiving end of one of them.
The Jets have a complete defense, but they have allowed the fifth-most yards and three touchdowns to tight ends.
Jets DC Robert Saleh’s defenses have been susceptible against tight ends since he was with San Francisco. Going back to last season, Kelce has scored in five straight games.
Cheaper Options
Rashee Rice, Chiefs, $4,800
I like this rookie receiver to get involved. The Chiefs running backs won’t have room to run against a Jets defense that is allowing the second-lowest yards after contact and the fourth-fewest explosive runs. This leads me to lean towards another Chiefs pass catcher, and Rice is my favorite of the group.
The Jets’ defense has been stellar defending receivers since the start of last season, but they have a small hole defending the slot. Rice will run most of his routes against Michael Carter there.
Last week, we saw Rice with multiple red zone targets, and he even had a touchdown that was called on the field overturned with the ruling that he was down at the goal line. He trailed only Kelce in targets and receptions last week. We can see Rice leading the crowded KC receiver room Sunday night.
Chiefs Defense/Special Teams $5,200
The Chiefs’ defense appears to be the real deal to combine with its high-powered offense, and the Jets have the worst offense in the NFL. They have converted only three of their last 24 third downs.
Prediction
The last time Mahomes faced the Jets, the Chiefs won 35-9 at Arrowhead. I expect a similar outcome. If the Chiefs offensive line can keep the Jets pass rush at bay, Mahomes will have a good night.
Mahomes and Kelce are approaching Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham for the most touchdown connections between a QB and TE.
October baseball! Not quite the playoffs yet but it’s the last day of the regular season. No. 162. The marathon ends.
The 12-team MLB playoff field is set. In the National League we have the Braves, Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, Marlins, and Diamondbacks. In the American League we have the Orioles, Twins, Rangers, Astros, Blue Jays, and the Rays.
There’s still Wild Card seeding to be decided. The games today that can affect Wild Card seeding are the Blue Jays vs. Rays and the Astros vs. Diamondbacks. We have a beautiful 14-game slate of games to choose from with every game scheduled to start at 3 pm ET.
There are plenty of guys who won’t play in Game 162 but we’re here to give you the best foundational building blocks you’ll need to construct your lineups around.
Weather Report
Mother nature got the message today and is allowing immaculate baseball weather across the country.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Kevin Gausman vs. TB: $11,500
George Kirby vs. TEX: $9,700
Kyle Bradish vs. BOS: $9,600
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. CLE: $9,400
Bobby Miller @ SF: $8,900
The starting pitching options on the final day aren’t the sexiest. There are some decent arms taking the mound, but I’m not convinced and more importantly, neither is the Contrarian Edge Optimizer that any of the top arms are worth paying up for.
If we forced to have one of the top priced starters in our lineups, I’d roll with E-Rod. Rodriguez has had an interesting season. He turned down a trade to the Dodgers at the deadline that would have seen him pitch in the playoffs.
Instead, he chose to stay in Detroit. Baffling, but the All-Star is coming off a 7-inning outing in which he didn’t allow a run. Sunday, he faces a Cleveland lineup that has the second-lowest batting average (.232) and the lowest OPS (.665) against lefties this season.
He is 3-0 in his three starts against Cleveland this season. He has thrown 21.2 innings and has allowed just 1 earned run. Just pure dominance over the Guardians lineup.
Sneaky Option
Reid Detmers vs. OAK: $7,300
The lefty has three straight starts where he has accrued at least 20 fantasy points. His numbers don’t jump off the screen, but he’s been solid over his last 7 outings as he’s posted a 2.41 ERA.
He will face the Oakland Athletics, not a bad opponent if you intend to close out the season on a high note. Oakland is just as bad against lefties as the Guardians are. They are the only team with a lower batting average against lefties in MLB at .230.
Strangely, today is Detmers' first start against the divisional opponent.
Michael King vs. KC: $8,000
You know I had to call on King. As a Yankee fan, he’s been one of the few bright spots in the second half of the season. He’s made seven straight starts after pitching much of his MLB career out of the bullpen and didn't allow more than 1 run in those 7 outings.
He’s posted a miniscule 1.04 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and his strikeout to walk ratio is outstanding at 47:9 KK/BB across 34.1 innings. His strikeout rate is up to 30.6% and a matchup with the Royals own a 23.1% strikeout rate.
Stack Attack
Padres @ White Sox (Jose Urena)
Among disappointing teams in 2023, the Padres at the top. They can end their season on a high note against Jose Urena, who has bounced around the league for the last two seasons.
In 9 starts this season he has a 6.04 ERA and has given up a .520 slugging percentage. The Optimizer suggests getting lefties in your lineup like Soto and Choi, probably because lefties have a .602 slugging percentage against him this season.
Chicago is a hitter-friendly park so we can trust the Padres to do damage.
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) & Josh Allen (BUF) TD +438 Caesars
I expected Chase to be -110 across the board, so I’m very surprised to see +125 on FanDuel. Chase currently leads the league in WR targets without a touchdown, and I think that changes Sunday. He’s also a good bet for 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown against one of the biggest pass funnels in the league. The Titans' rush defense is in the top five in success rate this year, and I don’t think Joe Mixon is going to be the guy to change that. There should be a steady dose of targets for Burrow's top target.
We constantly see Josh Allen’s rushing attempts increase in competitive games, and that’s been backed up by his quotes in the media on running in important vs. unimportant situations. This Dolphins matchup profiles as one of the highest-scoring of the season, and the Bills should have plenty of redzone opportunities. While James Cook has been a good addition to the team, the smaller back doesn’t profile as much of a goal line back. I expect Allen to primarily operate as their red zone rushing option, and he also has scramble potential outside of the red zone with those Dolphins deep safety looks.
Anthony Richardson (IND) 1+ Touchdown +105 FanDuel
We cashed Anthony Richardson in this very article when he scored two touchdowns before going down with an injury before halftime. He’s back in the lineup, and I’m surprised we’re getting this prop at plus money. Richardson will continue to be the No. 1 goal line option, even with Zack Moss playing better than Deon Jackson. There is a reason that Cam Newton and Josh Allen are top-5 in goal-line efficiency in the last 25 years; it’s a very hard play to stop. Richardson is more athletic than both of those quarterbacks, and I expect him to continue to be the focus of all the Colts' goal-line packages.
Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) TD +800 MGM
This Denver/Chicago game is going to be one of the more exciting games of the week between two bottom feeders on the defensive side of the ball. I think we will have plenty of scoring opportunities in this one, and the RB has already been involved in the red zone, scoring a first quarter touchdown against the Commanders. He’s someone that made waves in training camp and has earned touches this week. I like taking my chances at +800.
Marvin Mims Jr (DEN) +430 FD
Mims has been the most impressive offensive player on the Broncos, despite only playing limited snaps. Rumors out of Denver are heavily implying he will be more involved this week, and he gets an amazing matchup. I think this will end up being Denver's most impressive offensive performance, and getting these good prices on some of the lesser-known players is a good angle. Mims has also had some huge plays on special teams, and I’ll always take the added opportunities. Asking a big play player to make a big play here!
Jonnu Smith (ATL) +800 FD
Finally, another backup tight end longshot after cashing last week! Smith had surprising usage last week, and I think we might see that again. Pitts doesn't look healthy at all on film and is also running tougher downfield routes. Smith has recorded more than a 70% route participation in back-to-back weeks and has some solid yards after catch upside. Jacksonville is a pass funnel which is bottom-5 in fantasy points against the tight end position. I like the sneaky longshot here.
Friday’s game between the Phillies and Mets was rained out, and while they’re scheduled to play a doubleheader Saturday, there’s a chance of precipitation throughout the day. There’s also a decent probability of rain occurring during the Angels-Athletics games, so fantasy managers will want to make sure before including anyone in those contests in their respective lineups.
Injury Report
Nico Hoerner -- Knee: Hoerner fouled a ball off his left knee during Friday’s extra-inning loss to the Brewers, and he was diagnosed with a contusion. Testing revealed that there were no fractures, so there’s at least a chance that Hoerner can be back in the lineup for a must-win game against the Brew Crew on Saturday.
Jorge Polanco -- Ankle: Polanco tweaked his right ankle while striking out in the fourth inning against the Rockies. It is the same ankle that the infielder has had multiple surgeries on, but it does sound like his exit was more precautionary than due to serious injury. It is worth pointing out that Minnesota is locked into their playoff positioning, however, so they won’t have any reason to rush Polanco back.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers for Main Slate (DraftKings)
Spencer Strider vs. WAS: $12,800
Clayton Kershaw @ SF: $10,800
Luis Castillo vs. TEX: $10,300
Justin Verlander @ ARI: $9,800
Merrill Kelly vs. HOU: $9,600
Michael Wacha vs. CWS: $9,200
As is usually the case when he’s available, Strider is the most expensive option in the main slate, and it’s easy to understand why with 274 strikeouts and 19 wins in an excellent 2023 season. It is worth pointing out, however, that Strider has not been the same pitcher as he was earlier in the season in September with a 5.64 ERA, and he struggled against the Nationals with four earned runs and “only” four strikeouts on Sunday. The upside beats any arm going -- and there’s some good ones -- but there’s a little more risk involved here than you might think.
Sneaky option
Joe Boyle @ LAA: $7,800
It’s not easy for a 6-foot-7, 240-pounder to be sneaky, but Boyle qualifies in this case as one of the lower-priced options for Saturday’s slate. The former Cincinnati prospect has not allowed an earned run in his first two outings over nine innings since receiving his call-up, and he’s whiffed nine in that timeframe against three free passes. He’ll get a chance to take on a Los Angeles lineup that is ever-so-beatable, and while he’ll be playing behind one of the worst teams in baseball -- that’s quite the understatement -- he still has a chance for fantasy success even without a victory.
Stack Attack
Twins @ Rockies (Undecided)
C Ryan Jeffers: $4,400
2B Donovan Solano: $3,600
3B Kyle Farmer: $3,800
OF Michael A. Taylor: $3,400
We always remind you to check lineups before you submit your lineup, but in games like this where neither team has anything to play for in terms of gain in standings, this is especially true. Having said that, basically just add as many Minnesota hitters as possible against Colorado and whomever they start. You only get two more chances to do this. Take advantage of it. It truly doesn’t matter who Colorado decides to throw. Just do it. You’ll be rewarded in the end.
Yankees @ Royals (Steven Cruz)
1B DJ LeMahieu: $3,300
2B Gleyber Torres: $4,200
OF Aaron Judge: $6,300
OF Oswaldo Cabrera: $2,500
The Royals will go with a bullpen day against the Yankees on Saturday with Cruz likely going the first couple of innings before turning things over to one of the worst groups of relievers in baseball. You can add a superstar like Judge to the mix while gaining some (relatively) cheap other options that have a great chance for success in Kansas City. Again, make sure these guys actually play in the penultimate game, but whatever hitters get a chance to hit against Cruz and the KC bullpen are solid fantasy options. Sometimes it’s not that simple. Today is not one of those days.
Intro: I watch the TNF games (and every NFL game) live, then watch it again on tape for scouting Fantasy/DFS and future betting (player props) purposes. And like a restaurant or movie ‘critic’, I’m here to report my critiques of this nationally televised game -- pro and con.
My name is R.C. Fischer, and I am a decade+ long football scout and Fantasy writer/player (and bettor) of football things...and I watch football games for a living. I am a fan of no NFL team … except the one that I may have bet on that particular game. I review/study game tape for personal profit (or loss) in DFS and handicapping/props.
Let’s take a look at what I witnessed, the good and the bad, in this game on my every Friday series on Sportstopia critiquing the ‘Best and the Worst’ of the Thursday Night Football game.
Here is the BEST and WORST of TNF Week 4, Lions at Packers.
BEST: What’s Better Than Winning One Milly Maker DFS Contest on DraftKIngs?
Last week, Week 3, FSL’s Optimizer WON the TNF DraftKings DFS Milly Maker...a MILLION DOLLARS...split with 125 other people. I was just impressed that I was some kind of part of the data and strategy that won a million-dollar contest already with this new Optimizer software.
Daryl Snyder, FSL CEO, told me upfront when my company started partnering up with his – that he had a goal to win two Milly Makers...and he wanted to start accomplishing that goal by winning one to start. It was a joking statement/goal, but also, he was serious – and that’s what we’re in this for...is to prove the quality of the FSL Optimizer tool and the scouting/projections data provided. So, last week – we got his ‘one’.
Well, it didn’t take long to get Part II of the initial goal completed...because the very next week, this game Week 4 – win #2...two in-a-row. That’s insane – but it’s not pure luck. It’s the quality of the Optimizer tools, and the brains and balls of the man running the software for FSL (Mr. Snyder) converting the football info/scouting into action/strategy for the Optimizer’s line up setting, and it’s the scouting and projection data provided by firms like mine at Fantasy Football Metrics – all of it coming together like a beautiful symphony.
Back-to-back wins, this 2nd win/first prize title was only shared with 74 other people. So, a bigger slice for FSL.
WORST: Winning is Contagious...and Ups the Ante!
I just mentioned (above) that Daryl stated his goal was to win two DFS Milly Makers...that’s what he told me, but after the Week 3 win -- he wanted to clarify and change the goal to a modification of: he wants to win the actual million-dollar prize alone and not just share it!
Hey, I was told the goal was to win two Milly Makers...and we did...Mission Accomplished! Right?
Daryl is right...the goal has to be the solo win to really move the needle, move the company forward/higher. So, it’s one night to celebrate the improbable back-to-back wins...and then back to the coal mines to study more football to now win one of these things all alone for the seven-figure dream.
Football never sleeps. There’s always a next contest to conquer. The good news for FSL – we’re doing some kick-ass conquering.
BEST: The Detroit Lions Overall
On our TNF DFS preview podcast on Sportstopia Thursday, I spoke about how strong the Lions have looked on tape all season and that they had made their move to being one of the clear top 10 best executing, all-around teams in the league, heading toward trying to get into the top 5 best – they are that good.
With that as a lead-in the Lions went out and dominated in all facets right off the bat. Detroit led 27-3 at the half while holding Green Bay to just 21 yards total offense by the half.
It was a thorough beating handed out by the clear front runner for the NFC North.
Our prize-winning DFS strategy in this game was born from a belief that Detroit would most likely dominate the Packers and put the Pack into late-game catchup mode for passing numbers. And we pretty much called it in advance on the Sportstopia TNF podcast.
Green Bay was a constant three-and-out in the 1st-half and looked like they might never complete a forward pass or run for positive yardage. It was 24-3 Detroit 16+ minutes into the game and the Packers were lucky it wasn’t worse than that. An awful display by the Packers.
BEST: The Green Bay Packers in the 2nd Half
Well, at least the Packers didn’t rollover like the Denver Broncos did last week at Miami. Green Bay actually closed the gap to 27-17 at the beginning of the 4th-quarter. The Packers fans got back into it, and it looked like we might have an exciting finish. We didn’t...but at least it kept the game interesting and gave Packers fans some hope (delusions) going forward.
WORST: No Exciting Finish
Quay Walker decided to try and (illegally) jump the O-Line to try and block a field goal, a field goal attempt that the Packers defense worked so hard to halt Detroit from scoring a touchdown so they could stay two scores away with some left to mount a legit comeback – but the Walker penalty erased the field goal and gave Detroit a fresh set of downs deep in the red zone, that wound up an eventual TD and provided the dagger to the Pack.
BEST: Winning the Game Bet...Early
DFS isn’t the only way to profit from the TNF game. Taking our scouting to project the game script, I bet on Detroit -2.0 for this game...and that got in the bag rather quickly, with no real risk that it would escape with late game shenanigans.
I like the bets where it’s not down to the wire praying for a kicker to miss a last second field goal or praying for a fumble or praying for an unusual lightning storm to come along and get the game canceled so that the bet would just be refunded. No, I got to enjoy this one without stress all the way through...pretty much...thanks to Quay Walker for relieving any of my possible stress.
WORST: I Lost the Game Bet Proceeds on a Props Bet
My BEST BET of this game...failed.
Keisean Mixon, slot cornerback for Green Bay – I took the OVER 3.5 tackles prop at (+120) in DraftKings on him this game.
When Mixon has played 65% or more of the snaps in a game, he has hit 4 or more tackles in a game five times in 6 those games where he played heavily...and this night he would be on Amon-Ra St. Brown quite a bit, so lots of throws/catches headed Mixon’s way expected, which elevates tackle count hopes. Well, Detroit blew Green Bay out so fast that the Lions throttled down the passing game and instead of his usual 7-8 catches, Amon-Ra ‘only’ had 5 catches here, one for a TD (so, no tackle count possible).
Mixon wound up with 2 total tackles officially...and one missed tackle I saw (because you watch these guys like a hawk when you got money on the line) where he smashed a receiver pretty hard but the ballcarrier kind of had their momentum pushed forward by the hit and then ran into the hands of someone else who got credit for the tackle.
These are the things that drive Prop bettors out of their minds. Actually, good thing he didn’t get that 3rd tackle in like the 3rd-quarter – because then he would have needed one more tackle to pay off and I would’ve watched the rest of the game in agony watching him NOT get anymore tackles.
BEST: Can’t Run on the Lions
The Lions run defense shut down the Falcons top run offense last week...22 carries for 44 yards. This game, they crushed the Packers run game to 12 carries and 27 yards total.
One of the main themes of the DFS preview podcast, and for setting lineups, accordingly, was talking about the Lions run D. Now, the world will be talking about it the next week/s. Good luck to Miles Sanders next week.
WORST: Luke Musgrave, Fantasy Week 4 Killjoy
I got into Luke Musgrave this week in some DFS lineups and in traditional head-to-head Fantasy leagues. Musgrave is a great rookie talent and had a really nice output last week/Week 3 with some opportunity left on the table due to a couple Jordan Love overthrows.
This night: One catch...one yard...out with a concussion before halftime, and as soon as he is gone the other TEs get 6 catches from then on in.
Fantasy is a wicked beast too often.
BEST: Brian Branch Miraculously Returns
Lions rookie Brian Branch looked like he had a bad leg injury in this game, and he got carted off the field...a huge loss for the Lions and felt bad for the young man.
Then, a little while later, we saw Branch on the sideline getting taped up and then back in the game. A thankful stroke of good fortune for Branch and the Lions. Happy to see that!
WORST: Brian Branch is Still Playing?
With the Lions way up late, Branch was still in the game and...and he got hurt again and had to be helped off the field. Did he really need to be out there late? Who is managing the personnel? We see this risk taken all the time in the regular season. Yet, in the preseason they try to put everyone in bubble wrap. Do better by your stars NFL coaches!
See you next week/TNF Week 5 (Chicago at Washington) ...where we go for an insane third Milly Maker 1st Place in a row. It’s impossible to do...but I said that about winning a 2nd in-a-row this week. So, what do I know?
About my ‘fade Chase’ thoughts last week — let’s just say Joe Burrow single-handedly changed the trajectory behind that analysis (as I initially didn’t expect him to play in Week 3) so I will NOT be fading a top-5 player at his position — because this week I might just mess around and do it!
Buckle up y’all, it’s time for some ‘Fade ‘Em Up Friday’ thoughts! (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel.)
QB: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens ($8,200, QB4 at cost)
In going up against arguably the best defense in the NFL (statistically speaking), Jackson might be in for a rough outing.
The Browns are No. 1 in total defense, giving up an average of just 163.7 yards per game, and are the only team that has allowed less than 500 total yards through the first three weeks. They're first in scoring defense, giving up 10.7 points per game and are the only team that has given up less than 35 points.
Coupled with Baltimore-Cleveland being the projected lowest-scoring game (39.5) of the weekend, elite fantasy production might not be there for the former MVP.
To make matters worse, Odell Beckham Jr and Rashod Bateman have yet to practice for Baltimore this week and are likely to miss Sunday’s divisional showdown.
It’s not that Lamar won’t put up fantasy points, it’s just that you can find cheaper alternatives with similar statistical outputs.
RB: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,900, RB13 at cost)
White is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and I’m not sure that number goes up this weekend vs the Saints, who are top 10 in rushing defense (99.7 ypg).
White’s calling card was supposed to be pass-catching ability out of the backfield – coupled with Baker Mayfield’s penchant for checking down – but he hasn't eclipsed 5 receptions nor 30+ yards receiving in any game.
In a tough divisional matchup that’s expected to be low-scoring, I’m not high on White and he’s not worthy of a top 15 salary at RB.
WR: Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8,000, WR7 at cost)
Evans has been BALLING, but what goes up, must come down.
The thing about segments such as this one where I’m “fading” guys in fantasy isn’t my favorite subject to write about, as often people misunderstand your usage of ‘fading’ as ‘hating’ a player, or ignoring how a player has been performing (no matter how many times you try to preface).
It’s not necessarily the comments from others that bug me, it’s that I’m able to – sometimes, at least – foreshadow the truth when others can’t. I usually find myself on an island and, for the most part, nobody wants to be all alone on an island.
All of this to say, the matchup just isn’t it for me when it comes to Evans in Week 4.
Since his rookie season in 2014, Evans has averaged ‘just’ 50 yards per game along with 3.24 receptions against the Saints, numbers well below his standard. He hasn’t topped 70 yards receiving in his last eight games against the Saints, dating back to 2019.
I know everyone is hopping on the Evans train right now, but if you’re one of the lucky few reading this, I highly advise you get off that train for Week 4 before it crashes.
TE: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,900, TE5 at cost)
Having yet to eclipse six receptions or 41 yards in any game (including a Week 1 doughnut in the box score), Goedert is currently the TE27. That’s a far cry from the TE1 production we’re accustomed to seeing.
Perhaps he’s moved even further down the pecking order in that loaded Eagles offense? Whatever it may be, fade Goedert in Week 4.
I don’t know what it is, but Washington almost always plays the Eagles tough -- particularly in Philadelphia, where the Commanders have won two of the last three matchups.
To top it off, the Commanders have yet to allow a TE to record over 23 yards receiving. With a solid and underrated group of linebackers and safeties, I don’t expect that number to change.
You can find more upside at TE while spending significantly less at the position.
FLEX: Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals ($7,400, RB9 at cost)
Volume will always serve Mixon, especially in fantasy world – albeit relatively inefficiently.
But what happens when somebody who relies almost exclusively on volume (in addition to passes thrown his way out of the backfield) runs into a literal wall? By wall I mean the Tennessee Titans defense, who have been lethal defending the run.
Tennessee is first in the NFL in fewest yards per carry allowed, at 2.6, and fourth rushing yards allowed per game at 69.3. No one has run for more than 45 yards against the Titans, and I’m not sure Mixon will be the first.
Joe Burrow might still not be 100% healthy and that hypothetically would mean Cincy running more. However, the RB9 price is too much to spend on Mixon when the matchup is about as bad as it could be.
Leave Mixon on your bench this week if you have other alternatives at RB.
Believe it or not, the NBA season tips off Oct. 24 with the Lakers at Nuggets and Suns at Warriors on a TNT doubleheader. The season is less than a month away and fantasy draft season is officially upon us.
There are few things better than NBA opening night. Your team’s record is unblemished, there is nothing but hope and excitement in your future and maybe there aren’t a bunch of red crosses littering your roster.
Sleepers in fantasy hoops are becoming a thing of the past as managers have a ton of information at their fingertips. Reaching for guys we like is becoming more prevalent. In any case, here’s my attempt at unearthing some sleepers that may not be on everyone’s hot list.
Nikola Jokic DEN C - Just kidding.
Mikal Bridges BKN SG/SF
I’m not sure he qualifies as a sleeper after he blew up in Brooklyn last season. This is not as much of a sleeper alert as it is a note of caution. Bridges averaged 26.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.6 blocks and 2.5 3-pointers in 27 games with Brooklyn last season. But in 56 games with Phoenix he averaged just 17.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.6 dimes, 1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.2 triples. He’s determined to play all 82 games again, and he’ll build on the confidence he gained last year and continue to dominate in Brooklyn.
However, Kevin Durant was hurt for a big chunk of his run, I’m not really sure Bridges can score more than he did last year, and his steals aren’t anything to write home about. I love his game, and while I’m hoping to draft him heavily this season there is a chance that he’s going to go earlier than he should. In fact, he ranked at No. 27 in eight-cat for his time in Brooklyn last season. The point is that taking him in Round 2 is a definite reach and after some lengthy discussion and more thought, I’m not going to grab him until Round 3.
James Harden PHI G
Harden’s a tricky one after he blasted Daryl Morey this summer and said he won’t play another game for the 76ers. The rant cost him $100,000 and it doesn’t sound like the Sixers have much interest in moving him to another team.
Is Harden going to cave and play, or sit out and force Morey’s hand again? The good news is that probably means you can get Harden late in Round 2 or even in Round 3.. And despite his advanced age (34) Harden was still the No. 17 player in eight-cat last year.
If you can get a guy like Harden in Round 3 of your draft he has some serious steal/sleeper potential and while he probably will also be in a future Risk vs. Reward column that I’ll write, he’s going to be a very tough call on draft night. For me, there are just too many question marks to take a gamble on him. But if you like to gamble and want to get a potential first-round player in the third, it makes sense to take a flier on him.
Cade Cunningham DET G
Cunningham played in just 12 games in his rookie season, averaging 19.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocks before being shut down and having surgery on his left shin. He should be fully healthy entering the season and while he’ll play for the lowly Pistons, they’re going to build around him and have him be the focal point of the offense.
Going all in on a guy who has played 12 NBA games in the third round is another risk vs. reward call but Cunningham has the potential to be a Top 30 player if he can stay healthy. And if he replicates or builds on last season’s small sample size of stats, he could even be Top 20. I think he’s worth a third-round fantasy pick and even better if you can get him in Round 4. Either way, he’s all upside and should be primed for a big season if he can stay healthy.
OG Anunoby TOR SG/SF
Anunoby isn’t flashy and doesn’t appear in the TV highlights all that often but he quietly returned Top 30 fantasy value last season and may be available in the fourth or fifth rounds of drafts this year. He’s only 26 years old, averaged 16.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.7 blocks and 2.1 3-pointers for the Raptors last season. He won’t hurt you anywhere (career-high 83.8% from the line last season), is an elite stealer of the ball and one of the more underrated players in the league. Add in the fact that Fred VanVleet is now in Houston and Anunoby will probably be asked to do more offensively this season and you’ve probably got a very nice sleeper option in Round 5 of your draft.
Franz Wagner ORL SG/F
The 22-year-old Wagner took a nice step in year two by averaging 18.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.6 3-pointers with solid shooting percentages, returning ninth-round fantasy value. His lack of blocks hurts him a little but you’re not necessarily looking for them from a wing player in Orlando. He jumps up to Top 90 value if you throw out blocks and he played in 80 games for the Magic last season. The Magic are not going to be a great team and Wagner should lead the offense. If he takes another leap forward in year three (he should) he could easily be a Top 50 player and he will be available in Round 6 in many fantasy drafts. He’ll need to bump up his scoring, rebounds and assists to make it happen but all the tools are there and if nothing else, he’ll be a safe mid-round pick either way.
Tyrese Maxey PHI G
With all the Harden drama in Philly Maxey’s got a chance to be special this season, especially if Harden doesn’t play. Even with Harden around for part of the time last season Maxey was an early fifth-round value and he wasn’t taken until Round 6 in the industry mock I wrote about earlier. I don’t see how he’s worse than a fifth-round value this year and if you can get him in Round 6 or 7, you’ve got a potential steal on your hands. And if Harden is MIA for most of the season, the sky’s the limit on Maxey. The 22-year-old played in 60 games and averaged 20.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 0.8 steals and 2.7 3-pointers last year and needs to boost those dimes and steals to enter elite territory.
Devin Vassell SAS SG/SF
Vassell was a sixth-round value last season and is just 23 years old. He averaged 18.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.1 steals and 2.7 3-pointers but played in just 38 games due to a left knee injury that required surgery. It sounds like Keldon Johnson could be moved to the bench and Vassell could have an even bigger role this season, despite the addition of Victor Wembanyama to the Spurs. Vassell’s game is very fantasy friendly and if he can stay healthy, he could take a big step forward this season. And he should be available in Round 6 or 7 of most drafts. But staying healthy will be the key to his success or failure.
Cameron Johnson BKN F
Johnson came on in his 25 games in Brooklyn, averaging 16.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.3 3-pointers while shooting it well from everywhere. He was helped by Kevin Durant’s injury woes last season and Durant is now in Phoenix, clearing the way for a full CJ breakout. He’s nothing but upside and could even challenge Mikal Bridges to lead the team in scoring. Round 6 or 7 sounds about right for Johnson.
Derrick White BOS G
Marcus Smart is in Memphis and White should be the team’s starting point guard this season. He lit the league up for 19.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.7 blocks and 28 3-pointers in 11 March games last season and should be a fun fantasy point guard to roster this season. Especially if he can play like he did last March for most of the season. He’s a solid sixth-round fantasy target.
Tyus Jones WAS PG
Jones has been trapped behind Ja Morant in Memphis for the last four seasons but will be given the keys to the Wizards’ offense this year. Yeah, he’ll have to fight Jordan Poole off to keep the ball in his hands, but Jones looks like a near lock as a breakout candidate with his new starting role for the Wiz. I’m drafting him everywhere I can.
Miles Bridges CHA F
Bridges missed last season with legal woes but is back and should be one of LaMelo Ball’s preferred passing destinations this year. Bridges broke out in 2021-22 when he played 80 games and averaged 20.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.8 dimes, 0.9 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.9 3-pointers. He’s going to be trying to make up for lost time and is a great complement to LaMelo, making him a very intriguing sleeper pick. He was a third-round fantasy value in that season, and he was taken in Round 7 in the mock draft I keep referring to. If you can handle drafting a guy who’s gone through the things Bridges has over the last two years, he could pay off in a huge way. In fact, I don’t see how he returns less than third-round value again this season.
Marcus Smart MEM PG
Ja Morant (suspension) is out for the first 25 games and Smart can get things done on both ends of the court. There are several sleeper point guards available in the middle rounds of drafts this season and Smart is one of them. And even when Morant is ready to play, Smart can play minutes at shooting guard and share the court with him. This looks like the perfect year to draft Smart in fantasy.
De’Anthony Melton PHI G
Melton’s game is built for fantasy hoops (just ask Jonas Nader) and this whole Harden mess only helps his cause. Both Melton and Maxey should be really fun to roster this season and Melton was worthy of a seventh-round pick last season. If Harden’s out, Melton is going to rack up a ton of rebounds, steals and 3-pointers and should score more than the 10 points he averaged last season. I got Melton at the end of Round 8 in the mock draft and I might have been able to get him in Round 9 or 10. And I love him there.
Mark Williams CHA C
Williams is one of the worst-kept secrets in fantasy and should be ready to fully breakout after a solid rookie season. He only played in 43 games and made 17 starts, averaging 9.0 points, 7.1 rebounds, 0.7 steals and a block. And while he’s not a great free throw shooter, he won’t hurt you there too badly (69.1% as a rookie). He’s a dominant field goal percentage guy (63.7%) and he averaged 11.6 points, 9.8 boards and 1.1 blocks in those 17 starts last season. The Hornets are about to fully unleash him on the league and he should be available in Rounds 8-10 in most leagues. The sky’s the limit.
Tre Jones SAS PG
I took Jones in Round 9 in the mock and he returned late eighth-round fantasy value last season. He averaged 12.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.7 triples in year three and should try to take a step forward this season. He’ll have a big target in the form of Wembanyama and I’m betting that he’ll improve his numbers across the board again this season. He hit just 28.5 percent of his 3-pointers last season but if he worked on his shot, I could see him hitting one per game this year. He’s another up-and-coming point guard you can get later in your draft.
John Collins UTA PF
Collins was a disaster in Atlanta but still had some serviceable seasons and is a good player. He never lived up to the hype iand a change of scenery could be just what the doctor ordered. He’ll have to compete with Jordan Clarkson, Walker Kessler and Lauri Markkanen for touches but getting Collins at the end of your draft instead of burning a fourth-round pick on him should be a pleasant experience. I think he’s going to bounce back in his new digs.
Zach Collins SAS PF/C
Collins quietly had a mini-breakout season with 11.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.9 3-pointers for the Spurs. He’s a solid free throw shooter, should hit 50 percent from the floor and it sounds like he’ll start at center with Wemby playing forward more often than not. We’ll have to see if he can coexist with Wemby but if you need a center late in your draft, you could certainly do worse than Collins.
Bruce Brown IND G/SF
The Pacers paid Brown a lot and while he’s not listed as a starter in most depth charts, he’ll get there sooner than later. And if he doesn’t, he’ll play a big role off the bench. Brown won’t blow you away with big stats, but he does a little bit of everything and won’t hurt you anywhere. He's a very safe way to spend a late-round pick.
Dennis Schroder TOR PG
Fred VanVleet is in Houston and Schroder is the default point guard for the Raptors, as of now. The potential arrival of James Harden would crush our dreams but if it doesn’t happen, Schroder could be running the point all season. Schroder’s career averages are 14 points, 2.9 rebounds, 4.7 dimes, 0.8 steals and 1.2 3-pointers and if he’s in fact given the keys to the offense, he shouldn’t have trouble beating them.
James Wiseman DET C
There are too many centers in Detroit for my liking but Wiseman is a former No. 2 overall pick. As a starter last season he averaged 13 points, 8.1 rebounds and 0.9 blocks in 22 games. He’s a serviceable free throw shooter and if he can get enough playing time while dealing with Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, he could be a solid fantasy center. There’s nothing wrong with taking a last-round flier in order to see what happens in Detroit this season. And if he doesn’t pan out, you just hit the waiver wire and find a better player.
It's the final Friday of the regular season, and one of your final chances to take advantage of a full slate of games. Here’s some over/unders to take a look at for Friday’s MLB action.
John Means: 4.5 strikeouts vs. Red Sox - Over (PrizePicks)
Means is not a strikeout artist, but he’s been an effective option since rejoining the Baltimore rotation with a 2.60 ERA over those three starts. He’ll also be facing a Boston lineup that offers plenty of chances for swing-and-miss, and Means is likely to work relatively deep as Baltimore is trying to keep his arm strength up. If this was a high total like seven or eight punchouts we’d probably pass, but needing only five strikeouts to hit the over makes this the play.
Ken Waldichuk: 17.5 outs vs. Angels - Under (Underdog)
You could make a compelling argument for both sides of this over/under, and generally that means this is an option that you should stay away from. I’m feeling a little risky on this final Friday of the regular season and will bet on Waldichuk regressing even against a poor Angels’ lineup. The southpaw has gone six innings in three of his last four starts and has a solid ERA of 3.22 in four September chances, but this is still more of a long-term play than one you should be trusting in daily fantasy games. Asking for six innings from Waldichuk in an over/under is too risky a proposition, even against a less-than-spectacular Los Angeles group.
Cody Bellinger: 7.0 fantasy points vs. Brewers - Higher (PrizePicks)
The Cubs were swept by Atlanta this week, but little -- if any -- of that had to do with the play of Bellinger, as he went 6-for-13 in that series in what can only be described as a remarkable turnaround from the struggles he had for the overwhelming majority of the 2022 season. He’ll go up against Colin Rea and the Milwaukee bullpen on Friday in games that mean absolutely nothing to the Brewers and are must-win games for the Cubs if they are to play past the final regular season weekend. Don’t be surprised if Bellinger has a few massive games to try and help Chicago play postseason baseball.
J.P. Crawford: 1.5 hits + runs + RBI vs. Rangers -- Over (Underdog)
Crawford has somewhat quietly put together an excellent season for the Mariners, and he came up huge for Seattle with a two-run double in the bottom of the ninth to give the M’s a 3-2 victory. He’ll be leading off Friday against Nathan Eovaldi, and the shortstop will look to continue a good run while hitting in front of star outfielder Julio Rodriguez. It’s pretty easy to picture Crawford picking up a couple of knocks in another must-win game for Seattle, and the fact that he’ll hit at the top with Rodriguez and power-hitting backstop Cal Raleigh behind him eans run opportunities are readily apparent as well.
Bobby Witt Jr. + Aaron Judge: 5.0 hits + runs + RBI - Over (PrizePicks)
Let’s end the final Friday of the regular season with a fun one featuring a former MVP in Judge and a player that has a great chance to win one in the future in Witt Jr. (not that Judge can’t win another one, either, obviously). Judge will get a chance to square off against one of the worst starters in baseball in Jordan Lyles, while Witt Jr. will take on a lefty in Carlos Rodon. Against left-handers this year the shortstop is hitting .297 with an OPS of .858, so it’s safe to say that both hitters have an opportunity to do a lot of damage Friday in Kansas City. It’s a high total, but it’s always a good idea to bet on talents like Judge and Witt Jr.
It's a fully-loaded 15-game Friday featuring a jam-packed 13-game main slate for DFS purposes, which means there are plenty of intriguing pitchers and lineup stack options for fantasy managers to consider.
Weather Report
New York is our most likely trouble spot with lingering rain showers in the forecast throughout the evening. There’s a chance Phillies-Mets gets an early postponement, but there’s also a chance the two clubs will wait to see if they can get the game in. We’ll see, but this one looks extremely risky.
Injury Report
Chas McCormick, Astros OF (back)
McCormick is day-to-day with a lower back contusion entering Friday’s series opener against the Diamondbacks.
Nolan Schanuel, Angels 1B (knee)
Schanuel has missed a pair of contests with a left knee contusion and should be considered day-to-day heading into Friday’s series opener against the Athletics.
Yandy Díaz, Rays 1B/3B (hamstring)
Díaz has sat out two straight games with right hamstring tightness. With a playoff spot already locked in, there’s no reason for the Rays to take any chances, but he should be ready to return to action at some point this weekend to get ready for the postseason.
Luis Arraez, Marlins 2B (ankle)
Arraez has missed four straight contests since twisting his left ankle last Saturday on the dugout steps at Loan Depot park. He remains day-to-day for the moment, but fantasy managers shouldn’t count on him being ready for Friday’s critical matchup against the Pirates.
Brandon Nimmo, Mets OF (shoulder)
Nimmo will miss the last couple games of the regular season due to an AC joint injury in his right shoulder.
Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals 1B (back)
Goldschmidt has sat out a couple games this week due to back tightness.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Zac Gallen (AZ) vs. HOU: $9,700
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) at SEA: $9,300
Joe Ryan (MIN) at COL: $9,000
Dylan Cease (CWS) vs. SD: $8,900
Allan Winans (ATL) vs. WSH: $8,700
Lance Lynn (LAD) at SF: $8,600
Hyun Jin Ryu (TOR) vs. TB: $8,500
J.P. France (HOU) at AZ: $8,300
Taijuan Walker (PHI) at NYM: $8,100
Aaron Civale (TB) at TOR: $8,000
With Nathan Eovaldi likely still facing some workload limitations and Joe Ryan in line for a tough matchup in Coors Field’s high-octane offensive environment, Zac Gallen and Dylan Cease are probably the best options for the main slate.
Gallen bounced back from a pair of rough outings by racking up eight strikeouts over six shutout frames against the Yankees in New York. He'll close out an extremely impressive regular season with a tough matchup against the Astros, who are also still fighting to secure a playoff spot.
Meanwhile, Cease will lock horns with the Padres in Chicago and is coming off a dominant outing against the Red Sox where he struck out 11 over seven shutout frames.
It's Cease with a slight edge over Gallen as the top option almost solely because of the matchup. Allan Winans would’ve been a sneaky option for fantasy managers, but he’s one of the top-priced starters Friday, thanks mainly to a tasty home matchup against the Nationals.
Sneaky Option
Nick Martinez, Padres RHP, vs. White Sox: $5,800
Martinez is unlikely to work deep, but he’s pitched brilliantly in the last few weeks. The 33-year-old swingman has a sublime 0.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 15/4 K/BB ratio across 14 innings (seven appearances, two starts) in September and finds himself in line for an extremely favorable matchup Friday night against a White Sox’ lineup that has compiled the worst OPS in baseball in September.
There isn’t massive upside, but Martinez should excel into the middle innings in Chicago. I’ll throw out Athletics right-hander Joe Boyle since he’s facing the Angels in his third big league outing. There’s significantly higher strikeout upside, but there’s also significantly more risk, given his limited sample size at the highest level. Still, both Martinez and Boyle make for intriguing low-cost options for fantasy managers.
Stack Attack
Braves vs. Nationals (RHP Trevor Williams)
A great over-the-fence power lineup taking on a starting pitcher that has allowed the fourth-most homers in baseball is a prime stacking opportunity. The usual suspects are all in the mix for the Braves while someone like Eddie Rosario makes sense with a favorable platoon matchup.
OF Ronald Acuña Jr.: $6,800
1B Matt Olson: $6,400
2B: Ozzie Albies: $5,600
3B: Austin Riley: $5,400
OF Marcell Ozuna: $4,700
OF Michael Harris II: 4,500
SS Orlando Arcia: $4,000
OF Eddie Rosario: $3,800
Giants vs. Dodgers (RHP Lance Lynn)
Lance Lynn has surrendered more round-trippers than any pitcher in baseball. The Giants might be out of the playoff picture, but they have enough left-handed power bats to do some serious damage. It makes a ton of sense for fantasy managers to build around a couple left-handed bats from this lineup.
We start with a combo between two undervalued tight ends. While neither are the most exciting names in the world, I see plenty of value in these props.
Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has been locked into the tight end position since the start of the preseason, and Logan Thomas is 2/2 on this number already. While he got injured in the Denver game, he’s practiced this week and should be good to go.
Washington will have trouble establishing the run with their weak offensive line going against a top-tier Eagles D-Line, which should lead to more passing. With their strong secondary, the Eagles notoriously funnel targets over the middle, leading to tight ends balling out. They have a very strong secondary, but the linebackers and safeties can be exploited over the middle.
The Vikings’ T.J. Hockenson posted 66 yards, while the Chargers’ Hunter Henry and the Patriots’ Mike Gesicki had 56 and 38 in Week 1. The Bucs’ Cade Otton had 16 last week but had a drop and some penalty problems. I promise you Howell will drop back more than 25 times this week as well.
Dawson Knox is under the radar with rookie TE Dalton Kincaid, who hasn’t gotten off to the strongest start. Knox has proved to be a reliable weapon for Josh Allen over the last couple years, and he has five red zone targets (T5).
I expect both tight ends to be used interchangeably against the Dolphins, but Knox has been running more high-value routes and been more efficient. He’s over this number in 2/3 games, with his one miss coming against the Commanders. He had three targets, but the Bills were dominating so much that the game got out of hand.
This will be a high-scoring matchup against the best offense in football. Miami DC Vic Fangio is known for those deep cover-2 safety looks, which should lead Allen to check down more than usual. I have Knox and Kincaid both clearing four receptions in this one, but I see more value in Knox.
Now we’re going back to Underdog Rivals, for some head-to-head props!
Zack Moss (IND, RB) -8.5 Rush Yards vs. Kyren Williams (LAR RB)
Zack Moss has been sneaky impressive, and I expect that to continue in Week 4. Even in a rough matchup with backup quarterback Shane Steichen, he dominated a top-10 EPA defense (Houston Texans) and helped his team secure the win. He’s now posted 30-122-0 and 18-88-2 in his two starts since the Colts let go of Deon Jackson.
On the other side, Kyren Williams has ranked in the bottom 5 in RYOE since taking over the job. McVay mentioned wanting to lessen his workload in interviews this week, and it is unlikely that his on-the-field performance is changing his mind.
Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX, RB) +6.5 rush yards vs. Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB)
People won’t like this one, but I like the mismatch in opportunities. We’re seeing Bijan in a fairly even split, coming off an 11-carry game, while Etienne is locked into a 15+ carry role, averaging 16 on the season.
There is no denying Bijan is extremely talented, but I think the wrong player is favored in this matchup. The Jaguars will be one of the bigger pass funnels this year, and I think they hold up well on the ground. I’m expecting a bounce back from the Jacksonville offense, which means a favorable game script for Etienne.
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