With three weeks behind us, the NFL season feels like it’s fully underway and (mostly) starting to make sense (I’m looking at you Cowboys, what was that!?). Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense have been unstoppable, Jordan Love is an above average quarterback, Travis Kelce is smitten with Taylor Swift, De’Von Achane is as fast as advertised, the Falcons still hate throwing the ball and the Bears are an absolute disaster.
As the season falls into place, more information reveals itself, priors are proven right and even more are proven wrong, it’s up to us to fish out the relevant information and try to find that edge against our opponents.
Sometimes it makes sense not to rock the boat. Tua has been great and he’ll probably remain great for DFS with the Olympic track team he has. But sometimes we have to get contrarian with our stacks to set ourselves away from the crowd. We’ll give you a little bit of both here.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
- Josh Allen ($8200 DraftKings, $9000 FanDuel)
- Stefon Diggs ($8200 DraftKings, $8700 FanDuel)
- Dalton Kincaid ($3200 DraftKings, $4800 FanDuel)
All that talk about Tua in the intro and now I’m saying start Josh Allen!? Shoutout to our friend here at Sportstopia Terrell Furman for promoting this stack. We’ve got the highest total of the week at 53.5 and I WANT SOME OF THAT.
- Cody's Rankings: WR | RB | QB | TE-K-Def.
- Steezy's Fades: Get Off the Mike Evans Train Now
- TD Props: These Broncos Will Be Bucking
- Go with These TEs in Week 4 Pick 'Ems
- Week 4 Stacks: Go Chalk, Go Contrarian
- Bargain Bin: Burrow Is Ready to Show He's Back
- The Best and Worst from Lions-Packers
- Vegas Lines: In Ron You Should Trust
After what we’ve seen Tua and Tyreek do, you wouldn’t be the only one going back to the Dolphin well in Week 4. I’m trying to get on the other side of what should be a game where both teams score plenty. Allen and Diggs are no-brainers, but I like Kincaid’s involvement in the offense so far. Knox only saw two targets last weekend and seems to have lost his job to the rookie while injured.
Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts
- Matthew Stafford ($5700 DraftKings, $6600 FanDuel)
- Tutu Atwell ($5500 DraftKings, $6300 FanDuel)
- Tyler Higbee ($4200 DraftKings, $5100 FanDuel)
In the absence of Cooper Kupp, Rams QB Matthew Stafford has built quite the connection with two young wide receivers. Puka Nacua has been the highlight of this season, but don’t forget about Stafford’s favorite big play guy Tutu Atwell. Atwell out-targeted Puka on Monday and has seen 8 or 9 targets in every game.
Texans’ CJ Stroud threw the ball 47 times against the Colts, so if Stafford can stay alive behind his offensive line I’m expecting similar volume from a team that clearly wants to throw the ball. Puka will likely eat as well, but I’m taking the less rostered and just as involved player. Throw Higbee into the lineup as a contrarian tight end option. He’s been involved and is due a trip to the end zone. Shoutout to the Fantasy Sports Logic Contrarian Edge Optimizer for this Rams stack.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Justin Herbert ($7800 DraftKings, $8600 FanDuel)
- Keenan Allen ($7900 DraftKings, $9500 FanDuel)
OR
- Austin Ekeler ($8500 DraftKings, $9600 FanDuel)
Chalk, chasing points, going back to the well, WHATEVER. Justin Herbert has been a fantasy star despite the Chargers early struggles and I’m going back for more after Keenan Allen’s big Week 3. Every quarterback to play the Raiders has thrown at least two touchdowns and no interceptions. This list includes Russell Wilson and Kenny Pickett, so I don’t expect Herbert to be the one to break the trend.
If Ekeler is in fact back, he’s equally as great of an option and you might get a slight dip in ownership due to fears of him coming back from injury. Herbert and Allen are chalk to the max. Ekeler captures the same upside but differentiates your roster from everybody else who watched what Keenan Allen did after Mike Williams went down.
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