It’s that time of the week, everyone’s second-favorite (perhaps third-favorite?) day – Friday! You know what that means, it’s time to fade a player -- or five in DFS -- Steezy A style.
Before we commence, I must issue a public apology to Lamar Jackson.
For the second consecutive week, I wasn’t in my right mind and faded a top 5 player at his position; Jackson not only had 4 touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 passing) in a blowout victory over Cleveland, he was QB3 in Week 4 and apparently he was a ‘fade.’
I’ll take this one to the chin and own it. My bad, Lamar! As per usual, all salaries provided are courtesy of DraftKings.
QB: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,600, QB9 at cost)
Will the real Trevor Lawrence PLEASE STAND UP?
Pro Football Focus might have Lawrence as one of their highest-graded QBs of the season thus far, but he hasn’t looked like the same QB that dominated the second half of last season and he definitely hasn’t looked like one of the highest-graded.
And that’s with Calvin Ridley, who has cooled off after a monstrous debut with the Jags in Week 1, having yet to clear more than 40 yards since.
What’s going on in Duval?
Lawrence has only had one multi-TD game, has yet to pass for more than 280 yards and his ownership percentage on DraftKings is a measly 0.2 percent, which means others are catching on.
Yes, the Jaguars might ‘own’ London (where they’ll be playing again this week against the Buffalo Bills), but if you’re looking to own a dub this week, you’re better off starting someone else at QB.
The Bills rank 6th in total defense, 4th in passing defense (less than 170 yards per game), 1st in sacks (16) and might have Von Miller back.
It’s certainly possible Lawrence gets back on track against a top tier AFC team in what could be a shootout, but until we see the fantasy production on the field, it’s hard to justify spending or even starting Lawrence in a 1-QB league when there’s a slew of cheaper options.
RB: Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos ($5,500, RB25 at cost)
Having yet to exceed 65 scrimmage yards, it’s fair to wonder whether Williams’ ceiling is capped in Denver’s offense.
While a workhorse workload wasn’t ever in the cards – Williams is bouncing back from a torn ACL suffered in Week 4 of last season – Denver has more than enough depth at RB to extinguish that possibility.
- Breece Great Story, Great Value
- Cody Carpentier's Week 5 Rankings
- Kupp Is Back; Take Advantag
- NWI Is AOK for Week 5 Pick 'Ems
- Will the Real Trevor Please Stand Up?
- Moore, Moore and Even Moore
- Couple of Zachs and You're Good to Go
- A Frugal Play, Brian Robinson
- The Pats are Bad -- That's Good for Us
- Studs & Duds: Not Quitting on Burrow ... Yet
Williams (hip) practiced on Thursday but given a tough matchup with the Jets and the emergence of rookie RB Jaleel McLaughlin as well as veteran RB Samaje Perine, it’s too risky to expect Williams to perform at his RB25 price tag (his highest weekly finish so far this season is RB27).
The matchup isn’t there. The workload isn’t there. The red zone opportunities aren’t there. The additional usage in the passing game isn’t necessarily there either. Will he be 100% as far as health? One could argue health might not be there either.
It’s not difficult, rather an easy decision. Fade Williams in ALL FANTASY FORMATS this week.
WR: Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos ($6,300, WR18 at cost)
Statistically, the Jets’ pass defense isn’t where it was last season, but that’s not to say they won’t pose a significant threat to the Broncos’ offense, specifically their pass catchers.
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have combined to turn the ball over a whopping six times against the Jets this season. Yikes.
A lack of 100% health has more likely than not played a role in Jeudy’s slow start to the season, but a showdown with a lockdown secondary is the last place I’d look for a wide receiver to have his breakout game.
Surprisingly, the Broncos are 10th in scoring with 25 points per game, but they’ve played the Raiders, Bears, and Commanders, all of whom have bottom-10 defenses. Given how horrid the Denver offense was last season, I’m not sold yet.
To top it off, Courtland Sutton seems to be Russell Wilson’s favorite target through four weeks, as he already has more TD’s this season (3) than he did all of last year (2).
Given the emergence of tertiary options like Brandon Johnson, Marvin Mims, and Jaleel McLaughlin, it’s hard to trust Jeudy as a top-20 play at his position with a WR18 price tag.
It’s a hard pass for me until he’s back to being that guy that averaged 91.6 receiving yards in the last five games of last season.
TE: Darren Waller, New York Giants ($5,400, TE4 at cost)
Going into draft season, the hype on Darren Waller was real.
Allegedly, someone at the Fantasy Expo in Ohio this past summer apparently walked around with a name tag that didn’t have their name, but the statement “Darren Waller will be the overall TE1 in fantasy this season” or something like that.
How asinine!
Waller hasn’t been horrible, but he hasn’t been anywhere near the top-3 TE everybody was drafting/expecting him to be. Perhaps the Giants are misusing him? Sitting at TE13 in standard scoring PPR leagues, I’d say that’s a fair assessment.
Only one game on the season so far with more than three receptions? Less than 40 yards in three out of four games? One double-digit fantasy scoring output?
If you have Waller in a season-long league, I’m not recommending that you drop him. Should he be in your starting lineups? Probably not, but he’s best on your bench if you haven’t already been fielding offers.
Some will blame it on the slate of nasty defenses the Giants have had to (attempt) to slay, but that’s not enough for me. What I will say though, is that given the shallow nature of the TE position, Waller’s upside is still intriguing, but to pay near top dollar for Waller in Week 5 just doesn’t have any merit when there are so many tight ends you can get cheaper that’ll put up comparable numbers.
Waller’s a fade for me every week until the Giants can find some semblance of competency on offense.
FLEX: George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,200, WR21 at cost)
Sometimes in fantasy, no matter how talented a player might appear to be, said talent doesn’t always translate to fantasy production.
Case in point, the man they call ‘NFL Youngboy.’
When you’re catching passes on a team that only averages 15.5 points and 263 total yards per game, both real-life points and fantasy points are going to be at a premium.
When your offensive coordinator is Matt Canada and your offense has gotten worse every season for the last three years, both real-life points and fantasy points are going to be a premium.
Pickens only has one game with more than four receptions, so I don’t know if he has a solid enough floor to warrant starting consideration, specifically in DFS.
At WR37 on the season so far, Pickens’ Week 5 price-tag of WR21 is puzzling, especially when you take into consideration the fact that his QB is already dealing with injuries (and yes, I do realize that four teams are on bye, but WR21 is still too high for me)
The talent is undeniably there with Pickens, but as far as everything else around him? Sub-optimal to say the least, and that’s me being generous.
I’ll see y’all next week!
.svg){kind=icon}
.svg){kind=icon}