An optimizer is a powerful tool to harness in DFS play, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. Like any other tool, one must first learn how to wield an optimizer before its true power can be realized. That is exactly what we will look to sort through in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Contrarian Edge Optimizer use at Fantasy Sports Logic for the Monday slates each week of the 2023 season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the newest, and most dynamic, optimizer in the industry.
First Run
As we typically do, running the optimizer without manipulating anything will give us a good idea of what to expect from the field tonight. The blended roster appears to be focused on fitting both quarterbacks in, returning a build of Hunter Renfrow at captain, Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Josh Jacobs. There is a ton to discuss based off that first run alone.
MNF Theory and Practical Application
First off, let’s break down the returned roster from the optimizer before getting into the rest of the theory for Week 8 Monday Night Football.
Hunter Renfrow carries a low 5.1 percent team target market share and 9.9 targets per route run rate for the Raiders this season as he has been largely phased out of the offense (and appears likely to be on his way out of town before the trade deadline). That profile would likely require a deep average depth of target (aDOT) to return viable production for the captain slot. Except Renfrow holds a modest 8.8 aDOT in this offense this season. That means Renfrow should be reserved for flex usage on this slate, and even then, his chances of cracking the optimal roster are extremely thin.
50.6 percent of the available targets for the Raiders have flowed through Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers this season. 84.0 percent of the team’s backfield opportunities have gone to Josh Jacobs. That, my friends, is an extremely concentrated offense. Even so, it remains highly unlikely all three see the requisite production on a showdown slate to simply force them onto rosters together, leaving us with our first general rule for this evening:
At least one of, and no more than two of, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs.
Because the concentration of work is so tight amongst those three Raiders players, it is not required to play them paired with their quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo. In fact, Garoppolo has just one game all season with more than a modest 16.1 fantasy points on an offense that has struggled in the red zone to the tune of a 27th-ranked 41.67 percent red zone touchdown rate (the rate of red zone trips that result in a touchdown). I conducted a study this offseason that attempted to find the correlation between touchdowns and fantasy production at the four major positions. That study found that the correlation was highest at quarterback (that study can be found here if you’re interested in the numbers behind the claim). That leaves us with our second major rule for this slate:
Limit Jimmy Garoppolo to 30 percent ownership and boost the Las Vegas kicker on rosters without Garoppolo. The two should theoretically never be played together.
Interestingly enough, the Lions have been even more concentrated than the Raiders this season, with Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown combining to account for 52.3 percent of the team’s total targets on the year. With David Montgomery out of action in Week 7, Jahmyr Gibbs handled a robust 87 percent snap rate and saw 21 running back opportunities, 10 of which were targets. In fact, St. Brown, LaPorta, and Gibbs combined to see 36 targets on 53 Jared Goff pass attempts their last time out, good for an elite 67.9 percent combined market share. Furthermore, the Raiders rank 30th in the league in red zone touchdown rate allowed at a robust 73.91 percent (as in, teams are scoring a touchdown on 73.91 percent of their red zone trips against the Raiders this season). Rule number three for MNF:
Jared Goff on 70 percent of rosters, paired with at least two of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Finally, Tre Tucker has out-snapped Hunter Renfrow in each of the previous two games while Austin Hooper, Kalif Raymond, Antoine Green, Jameson Williams, and Brock Wright have all played around the same percentage of snaps during each team’s previous two games. Our final rule for the evening:
Exactly one player from the group of Tucker, Hooper, Raymond, Green, Williams, and Wright on every roster.
As you can see, the Contrarian Edge Optimizer is an invaluable tool to building bulk rosters for DFS play. To best harness its abilities, we must first have a working knowledge of the varying options to utilize as inputs in addition to a theoretical and conceptual working knowledge of the game of NFL DFS. This article series will attempt to further our understanding in both those areas throughout the season.
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