Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper
There is a short schedule of MLB games Thursday, including two day games as the Rays host the Angels and the Cardinals host the Brewers. There doesn’t appear to be a marquee matchup, but there are playoff implications.
Thursday is Dodger Day. It’s easy to back LA when they face a struggling young pitcher -- Giants 22-year-old lefty Kyle Harrison. He’s allowed at least four runs in his last three starts. Betts is top five in on-base percentage and is one of two players to score a run in over 60% of games played this season.
Freddie Freeman, Dodgers 1B, 0.5 Single (Higher) – Underdog
Freddie is .344 against left-handed pitching and is tied with the fifth-most singles in MLB. He has cooled off in September by his standards, but a matchup with Harrison doesn’t scare us away.
Yandy Diaz, Rays, 1B, 7 Fantasy Points (More) – PrizePicks
Yandy has been the Rays’ most consistent hitter and is extremely underappreciated as one of MLB’s best. He has the second-best batting average at home (.354) and only Luis Arraez has a better average at home. He’s surpassed this number in five straight games at the Trop.
Hoerner has been one of my favorite picks all season. He’s up to 15th in batting average (.286) and is eighth in strikeout percentage (12.6%). He will face the Pirates’ Johan Oviedo, who’s had highs and lows this season. Hoerner is 5 for 10 against him with zero strikeouts.
As a Yankee fan, this isn’t what I want to see for Cole as he looks to lock up the AL Cy Young, but the numbers don’t lie. He has allowed at least five hits in five of his last nine starts. The Blue Jays’ project nicely against Cole with Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.357), Alejandro Kirk (.438), and George Springer (.333). We know Cole will likely give the Yankees length and a long leash means more opportunities for the Jays to rack up a few hits.
David Peterson, Mets, SP, 4.5 Hits (More) – PrizePicks
I considered going with Nick Castellanos after his 2-home run game, but instead we’ll ride with the entire Phillies lineup. I expect he will contribute, but in case he doesn’t we have plenty of other bats. Mets lefty Peterson has allowed at least six hits in three straight outings and has been smashed on the road. The Phillies have one of the best lineups hitting at home against lefties.
With the 2023-24 NBA regular season set to tip off Oct. 24, it’s an excellent opportunity to look at award futures on DraftKings Sportsbook. Most basketball bettors enjoy betting on awards such as MVP, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, Defensive Player of the Year, etc., because of the value that can be had throughout the regular season.
Last season, we saw Joel Embiid win MVP for the first time in his career, Paolo Banchero run away with Rookie of the Year, and Lauri Markannen win Most Improved Player of the Year. We will see a new set of contenders compete for these various league awards this season.
Below, we’ll look at some of my award futures in the Association and why bettors should consider wagering on them before Opening Night.
1. Regular season MVP – Devin Booker (PHX SG, +1800)
It’s never easy to make a prediction on MVP, as a lot of things can happen during the regular season. Joel Embiid could repeat as league MVP under new 76ers head coach Nick Nurse or Nikola Jokic could win his unprecedented third league MVP as Denver looks to defend its crown.
Jokic is the favorite to win MVP (+450), but I believe there’s value in betting on Devin Booker at 18/1 odds (+1800). He didn’t receive a single vote last season after finishing fourth in voting in the 2021-22 season. Last season, Booker averaged 27.6 points (career-high), 5.5 assists, and 4.5 rebounds. He also shot 49.4% from the field and 35.1% from three-point range.
Heading into this season, Booker will be a part of a Phoenix team that features Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Jusuf Nurkic. With their collection of talent and a new head coach (Frank Vogel), the Suns will try to get the Suns back to the Western Conference finals.
For Booker to win MVP, Phoenix must finish with a top-3 record out West, and he has to lead the team in scoring. There’s always a possibility that Booker and Durant (+1400) split votes because the Suns’ success will largely rest on their shoulders.
However, with Chris Paul at Golden State, Vogel could look for Booker to be a facilitator while still getting his points. If Phoenix gets off to a fast start, Booker’s odds could quickly shorten as they try to get back to the top of the West.
2. Rookie of the Year – Chet Holmgren (OKC PF, +300)
San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama is currently the favorite to win Rookie of the Year (+100), but do not write off Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren.
Holmgren missed his rookie season with a Lisfranc injury but is healthy and ready to help the Thunder reach the postseason. The former Gonzaga star is looking to join Ben Simmons and Blake Griffin as rookies who missed their first seasons in the NBA but won Rookie of the Year the following year.
The 21-year-old big man had an impressive Summer League in Salt Lake City and Las Vegas, averaging 16.5 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks in 29.8 minutes per game. If the Thunder can build off what they did last season with Holmgren, he will have a compelling case to win ROY.
3. Most Improved Player of the Year – Alperen Sengun (HOU C, +2000)
Sengun is quietly being underrated in the MIP race after what he did last season with the Rockets. The 21-year-old center posted career highs with 14.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game. Sengun also started in 72 out of 75 games last season – a noticeable improvement from his rookie season.
We should expect Sengun’s play to improve as he will be playing with veteran point guard Fred VanVleet, who hasn’t played with a center of Sengun’s caliber. He played alongside Pascal Siakam in Toronto, who is one of the better power forwards in the NBA. I like Sengun’s chances of winning MIP, especially if he averages a double-double and continues to show that he can get others involved.
4. Sixth Man of the Year – Chris Paul (GSW PG, +2000)
It’s weird to think about Chris Paul winning Sixth Man of the Year after all the things he’s accomplished over his career. However, he’s likely not a starter in Golden State but could be the perfect candidate to lead their second unit. Last season, Paul averaged 13.9 points, 8.9 assists, and 4.3 rebounds per game.
The 2022-23 season was a noticeably down year for Paul, but maybe coming off the bench could get him back to the point guard we’ve seen over the last few years.
However, if you still don’t think the multiple-time All-Star guard has a chance to win it, here’s something to keep in mind. Over the last 10 years, nine guards have won the Sixth Man of the Year award. The only time a guard didn’t win was Montrezl Harrell in the 2019-20 season.
5. Defensive Player of the Year – Evan Mobley (CLE PF, +600)
After finishing third in the DPOY voting last season, Mobley has a good chance this season. He and reigning winner Jaren Jackson Jr. are the favorites.
Last season, Mobley was stellar on the defensive end, averaging 1.5 blocks per game (ninth in the NBA) and was first in defensive wins shares (4.8). He also had a defensive rating of 108, fifth in the NBA.
The former USC standout did a fantastic job anchoring the Cavaliers’ defense last season with Jarrett Allen. Cleveland finished first in Defensive Rating (110.6) and opponents’ points per game (106.9).
Allen receives a majority of the attention in Cleveland’s frontcourt for his shot-blocking prowess and rebounding, but we shouldn’t forget about the 22-year-old Mobley, who is still coming into his own.
There doesn’t appear to be anything that should prevent either of Monday’s games from being played.
Injury Report
Kyle Wright, Braves RHP, shoulder: Wright’s season was already over after being placed on the 60-day injured list, but multiple outlets have reported that he’s likely to undergo surgery that will cause him to miss the 2024 season. It’s a disappointing development for a pitcher that was so good in 2022 -- 3.19 ERA, 21-5 record -- but now will have essentially two missed seasons.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Zack Wheeler @ ATL: $8,800
Zac Gallen @ LAD: $8,500
Max Fried vs. PHI: $8,000
Bobby Miller vs. ARI: $6,900
If Wheeler and Gallen pitch up to their potential, there’s a very good chance they’ll lead their respective teams to 2-0 leads despite playing the first two contests on the road.
Both hurlers have faced their respective opponents multiple times in 2023, with Wheeler posting a 3.32 ERA with a 21/6 K/BB in three starts against Atlanta, while Gallen struggled against the Dodgers with a 9.90 ERA and four homers in two outings and 10 innings. The sample is relatively small, but it’s a easier to have confidence in Wheeler.
Fried was a very effective option when healthy (2.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), but he was limited to 14 starts and 77 2/3 innings because of injuries and hasn’t started a game since Sept. 21 because of a blister on his left index finger.
That adds more risk on top of the Phillies having plenty of quality right-handed hitters -- and good lefties, too -- but Fried is worth roster consideration based on his track record. That and the limited options, of course.
Miller is making his first postseason start, which is a little scary, but his success in the second half of the season makes him arguably the most intriguing arm going. Over his last 10 starts, the rookie right-hander has a 3.25 ERA over 61 innings, held hitters to an OPS of .575 and registered a 57/15 K/BB ratio.
There’s no denying the Diamondbacks have looked fantastic so far in the postseason -- a bit weird considering how poor they looked at the end of the regular season -- but Miller makes an awful lot of sense to pair with a pitcher like Wheeler or Fried; whomever you like to win that game.
Stack Attack
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks (Gallen)
C Will Smith: $4,500
2B Mookie Betts: $6,200
3B Max Muncy: $4,200
OF J.D. Martinez $4,300
So far, I’ve been about as wrong as it gets when picking against the Diamondbacks, but I’ll try one more time. The Dodgers have done a very nice job of bouncing back from losses over the past few postseasons, and they appear to pick the baseball up well against Gallen based on their numbers.
This is a borderline must-win game for LA. It’s not impossible to come back from an 0-2 hole in a five-game series, but it’s awfully hard -- and I’ll (literally) bet on them coming out hot after their absolute disaster of a Game 1 on Saturday.
Veterans aren't the most exciting players to draft in fantasy basketball, but sometimes the boring and safe picks hit more often than chasing upside too early. And some veterans are aging like fine wine and often find themselves cheaply priced in drafts, making them solid values overall.
Here are several NBA senior citizens who are still getting the job done at a high level.
DeMar DeRozan
Chicago’s roster looks almost identical to last season, making DeRozan a very easy player to project for fantasy. He's still very much in his prime at age 34, with his last two seasons being the most impressive stretch of his career. Chicago’s point guard rotation is a mess, so that means we can expect to see plenty of DeRozan with the ball in his hands.
Chicago is in good hands, however. DeRozan ranked in the 89th percentile in pick-and-rolls last season. And unlike other players at his age, DeRozan doesn’t take many nights off and averaged 75 games over the past couple seasons. That’s unlikely to change with the Bulls looking to get back into the playoffs in 2023-24. You cannot go wrong with taking DeRozan in the fifth round, and if you’re already punting 3s, he’ll be even more valuable.
LeBron James
You’d think LeBron would be declining rapidly after 20 seasons, but he operates under a different set of rules when it comes to Father Time. LeBron has been held back by a very serious foot injury for the past couple years, but now he claims to be fully healthy again and he looked very spry to open training camp, moving around like someone a decade younger.
He has publicly said he’s ready to turn the spotlight over to Anthony Davis, but at the end of the day, he’s still LeBron James and he’s still going to eat. Despite playing on one leg last year, he managed a second-round finish in 9-cat. His 3-point shot is trending down as he settles for more bad looks and his defensive output isn’t what it used to be, but LeBron can still go out there and get 25 points, eight assists and eight rebounds in his sleep.
Chris Paul
Chris Paul has lost a step, and then another. He'll be 39 years old when the playoffs roll around. But it sounds like the Warriors are going to start him next to Steph Curry, and if that happens it means his minutes should stay north of 28.
Paul’s ADP of 72 in Yahoo is actually a couple spots cheaper than it was a few weeks ago, so he’s relatively affordable in fantasy drafts.
Assists are one of the most valuable categories in fantasy basketball because it’s not a category you can make up ground in during the middle and late rounds, so that really helps Paul’s case.
Curry said the addition of Paul has been a “seamless” fit so far, and those two were getting in a ton of reps together well before training camp started. Plus, the Warriors will have a focused Andrew Wiggins back in the mix this season, and hopefully a motivated Jonathan Kuminga to give Paul two really nice cutters and lob threats.
Klay Thompson
After a few years of horrendous injury luck, Klay surprised a ton of people when he played 69 games in 2022-23. He averaged 21.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists and a career-high 4.4 triples on a 41% clip.
The addition of Chris Paul can only help Klay, as he now has another elite playmaker creating easy looks for him on the perimeter. It’s no secret the Warriors don’t have as much frontcourt depth, so there’s been a lot of talk of Klay possibly playing the 4 for stretches. A bump in rebounding and defensive stats is suddenly on the table with this news, making him a reasonable selection with an ADP of 78.
Brook Lopez
Let’s not kid ourselves. Brook Lopez probably isn’t going to have another second-round campaign in 9-cat like he did in 2022-23, as that was pretty much the perfect storm with so many injuries in Milwaukee.
The Bucks enter the season at full strength, with the exception of Khris Middleton, who is still on the mend. Giannis Antetokounmpo will likely find more minutes at center after playing a career-high 41% of his minutes there last season. Lopez is also going to see his block rate come back to earth after registering a 6.7% compared to his career average of 4.9%. His ADP of 65 on Yahoo is not cheap, but often times you will see him fall to the end of the middle round with so many managers chasing youth and upside over safe and “boring” veterans.
Draymond Green
Dray is coming off his worst fantasy season since 2013-14, and although the Warriors paid him the big bucks, he’s clearly at the tail end of his career. The addition of Chris Paul also complicates things, as Paul taking the ball out of Green’s hands even more neutralizes one of his last few remaining strengths.
There’s another way to look at this though. With less offensive responsibility, maybe we can see Green put together one or two more elite defensive seasons in which we see his steal/block rates climb to the levels we were once spoiled with.
The Warriors have very little frontcourt depth and won’t be able to load manage Green as much as Steve Kerr was probably hoping to, so that should help keep Green’s games played up. With an ADP just shy of 100, Green is very cheap and can still be useful in the right punt builds.
Mike Conley
After looking “washed” with the Jazz early on in 2022-23, a trade to Minnesota rejuvenated the veteran in a big way. He averaged14.0 points, 5.0 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 2.4 triples on a 46/42/86 shooting line while playing 31 minutes per night.
Conley ranked in the 98th percentile on pick-and-rolls, making him a tremendous fit alongside Minnesota’s two stud centers in Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. He was also the second-best corner 3-point shooter, and that will be something that Anthony Edwards will be constantly looking for on his frequent drives. With a dirt-cheap ADP on most sites, Conley is a no-brainer pick and clearly has a lot left in the tank.
Al Horford
I wasn’t initially on board with Horford in what will be his age-37 season, but the Celtics are extremely thin up front and had to trade away Robert Williams in order to acquire Jrue Holiday. Sure, the Celtics have Kristaps Porzingis, but he’s not exactly Mr. Durable.
After that, we’re look at a group that consists of Luke Kornet and Wenyen Gabriel. Not ideal.
Horford will almost certainly have some maintenance days this season, but how many of those can the Celtics afford with this shallow of a roster? Horford was a 6th-round fantasy value in 9-cat last season and finds himself in an ideal situation to repeat his success.
Gordon Hayward
This might be a reach, but hey, Hayward has to have some good injury luck at least one time in five years, right? Charlotte’s roster is underwhelming yet again, and Hayward is an odd fit on a roster that’s destined to find themselves at the front of the tank race of 2024.
There’s been some talk of Hayward possibly coming off the bench in a sixth man role which honestly might suit him the best, and the Hornets have every incentive to play him in order to get his market value back up for the trade deadline. Hayward is still a very good player on the few occasions he’s healthy enough to play, most recently averaging 14.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.0 triples.
This is one of the most exciting rookie classes in recent memory, but not all of them are going to make a splash right away. With preseason ramping up, there will be a handful of additions to this list. But for now, there are eight rookies from the 2023 draft class that could make serious noise this season.
Victor Wembanyama
I don’t normally draft rookies aggressively, but Wembanyama is the exception. Wemby already has pro experience coming from a highly respected league in France, averaging 20.9 points on 47/27/82 shooting with 10.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 3.0 blocks. The last rookie to produce a first-round fantasy campaign was Karl-Anthony Towns in 2015-16, but Wemby has an even better stat profile and will be San Antonio’s top offensive option the second he takes the floor.
I’m going to have a ridiculous amount of Wemby shares if his ADP remains in the third round.
Scoot Henderson
Unlike Charlotte, I think it’s painfully obvious that Scoot Henderson should’ve come off the board at No. 2. We haven’t seen a point guard with this frame and athletic build since Russell Westbrook or prime Derrick Rose. Scoot has a lightning-quick first step and can get to the rim at will, but he can also stop on a dime and showcase his outstanding mid-range game. He also has a 6-9 wingspan and monstrous hands, something that will allow him to generate heaps of steals and blocks.
The Blazers did Scoot a solid and got rid of the distractions caused by the Damian Lillard saga, and Malcolm Brogdon is expected to be flipped. That leaves Scoot and Anfernee Simons with the keys to the offense. I would target Scoot aggressively in points leagues, but in 9-cat I think it would be better to acquire him later on in his rookie season when he has a chance to learn the ropes.
Rookie PGs are notorious for struggling with efficiency and turnovers, and it doesn’t help Scoot’s case that he doesn’t have a 3-point shot to fall back on when teams start crowding the paint.
Amen Thompson
Amen was in the top three of my rookie board and will be a 99th percentile athlete in the NBA right out of the gate. And with Kevin Porter Jr. out of the equation in Houston, Amen suddenly has an even better path to playing time. He’ll likely be ready as a floor general and primary playmaker someday, but Fred VanVleet will handle that role in the meantime while the rookie learns the ropes.
Amen has the size and strength to be used all over the floor, and the Rockets will be relying heavily on his defense early. He averaged 2.3 steals and 0.9 blocks for Overtime Elite, and while he doesn’t have a reliable jumper yet, his FG% could be very appealing because of his ability to generate points in the paint.
But just like Scoot, I like the idea of trading for him before the second half of the season as opposed to spending a draft pick on him since he’ll have some early bumps in the road as he figures out his role.
Ausar Thompson
You can argue that Amen may have the higher ceiling, but Ausar may have a better shot at extended minutes right away in Detroit. In fact, he’s already drawing rave reviews from head coach Monty Williams and may even win a starting job. “We think he’s gonna be phenomenal and we think he’s going to be an integral part of our team. There’s a chance that can happen right away, based on what we’ve seen this summer and in camp.”
Just like his brother, Ausar has steal/block rates that are through the roof with 2.4 steals and 1.1 blocks per game with Overtime Elite. He’s also a very capable playmaker, so it will be interesting to see how much freedom he’ll have to create while playing next to a ball-dominant Cade Cunningham.
Brandon Miller
It’s no secret that I’m not a big Miller fan, and being from Charlotte, I can promise you I’m not in the minority here. However, in fantasy basketball, opportunity is sometimes more important than talent and that’s exactly the case here.
Miller will likely step into a sizable role right away, helped by the fact that Miles Bridges is suspended for the first 10 games. On paper, Miller is supposed to be a good fit next to LaMelo Ball for his floor spacing ability, but the issue here is that Miller has been ice cold since the end of his college career.
During the Summer League alone, Miller shot a mediocre 38%.
Miller does have decent steal/block rates to fall back on, and he’s a solid rebounder and secondary playmaker. I’m not writing him off by any means just because the Hornets drafted him too high, but if he finds his footing he’ll have all the opportunities in the world on a really underwhelming Charlotte roster.
Jarace Walker
Jarace Walker is a defensive-minded forward who projects to be a utility player right away for the Pacers. Obi Toppin is standing in his way as the Pacers open camp in what should be an exciting battle for the starting power forward role, so it will be interesting to see which direction Rick Carlisle goes.
Walker struggled with his shot during the Summer League and hit 34% from the field and 44% from the field, but his counting stats of 14.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.3 steals and 1.3 triples were certainly intriguing. I won’t be drafting Walker in standard 9-cat leagues, but I do see him becoming a quality waiver-wire pickup at some point during his rookie season.
Dereck Lively
Jason Kidd starting a rookie? Can it be? It certainly seems headed that way, as Kidd has been talking up Lively quite a bit. Kidd gave Lively the starting nod in the preseason opener, although he didn’t do so hot with two points, five rebounds, one block and four fouls in 15 minutes.
But still, the Mavericks are desperate for a ceiling raiser, and they might as well see if they can Lively up to speed quickly since their alternatives consists of Dwight Powell, Richaun Holmes and Maxi Kleber.
Lively is going to have a steep learning curve and I don’t see myself drafting him just yet, but his shot-blocking ability gives him a great shot of being relevant in category leagues this season – he averaged 4.7 blocks per 40 minutes at Duke.
Taylor Hendricks
One of my favorite rookies, Hendricks reminds me of Jaden McDaniels in so many ways. He’s already an elite shot-blocking forward with 1.7 per game in college, but his 3-point shot is much further along than Jaden’s was during his rookie season.
The issue here is that Utah’s front court is very crowded, as they have Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, John Collins and Kelly Olynyk. Hendricks’ long-term potential is through the roof, and I will be drafting him aggressively in dynasty formats, but a potential lack of playing time at the beginning of his rookie season gives me pause in redraft leagues.
My brother turned 40 this weekend, and I’m not too far off myself. Young people, take a moment. 40 is a big number. It was when my brother and I were kids. It is now. Every time I hear an announcer talk about how old a player is when they might have just turned 30, I cringe a little bit.
But I’ve been thinking about the good times that have filled those years. My brother and I weren’t the best of friends when we were little kids. We grew extremely close when I got to college, however, and our bond has only gotten stronger since.
One of the main reasons is fantasy football. We joined our first league together after I graduated, and we share four different ones now. I root for him, I try to beat him, and I even sometimes give him some waiver advice.
It sounds silly, but this is a silly game we play, and I love every second of it. I love that I’m able to text him at any time about a player going off for three touchdowns or putting up a goose egg. I can always count on him to shoot back with a meme telling me I’m an idiot.
He beat me in a league championship last year and even our parents were super invested in the outcome. It’s the little things that make this game so great. It’s brought so many people together and hopefully you have a similar experience of joy and togetherness.
But sorry for the sappy intro, ya jabronis, on to the week 5 recap!
*Honorable Mention* Sam LaPorta, Lions TE – 3 rec. 47 yds. 2 TDs
We don’t usually do the Thursday guys because some time has passed, but DJ Moore’s day was too good to ignore -- 230 yards and three touchdowns, and it probably should have haven four. Where did he step out of bounds? He paced the league through Sunday. He’s gone over 100 yards three out of five weeks and he’ll have plenty more opportunities to keep that going with a Bears defense that has given up the most passing yards through five weeks.
Is Ja’Marr Chase always freaking open? He sure seemed like it Sunday, with 192 yards and three touchdowns. This was either a “launchpad game” for the Cincinnati Bengals OR they lit up an Arizona Cardinals team that also got lit up by the lousy New York Giants. Cincy will get Seattle before a bye and might really be able to get the offense turned around. Stay tuned!
Three catches. Three scores. That’s how George Kittle’s night went. The connection he had with Brock Purdy at the end of last season made him a top-five tight end. It hasn’t been the norm this season, but it’s clear the chemistry is still very much there. Kittle’s first career three-touchdown game put him right back near the top of fantasy tight end point scorers.
Travis Etienne, Jr. tweeted that he played himself in fantasy this week. I’m glad he didn’t go easy. His first game going over 100 yards on the ground carried the Jaguars to a win. His 35-yard touchdown at the end of the game sealed the deal. He’s a top-five runner and the Jags would be smart to keep that train rolling.
What more can we say about De’Von Achane? He’s leading the NFL in rushing in basically three games on about half as many attempts as the guys behind him. To say he makes the most of his touches is an understatement. And even when the game might be in hand, the Dolphins are more than happy to keep running their offense.
Zack Moss doesn’t care that you have Jonathan Taylor on your fantasy team. He was the feature back in the Colts’ offense as they work Taylor back in. Listen, Taylor got paid and we know what he’s capable of. But if you believe in preseason games being needed to get up to game speed, then Taylor will need about a month to figure it out. Moss will continue to have value and at worst will be the best handcuff in fantasy leagues if Taylor goes down.
They said, there are no limitations on Breece Hall. Yes, the Broncos’ run defense is basically Swiss cheese, but that doesn’t matter. Hall will likely be the focal point of the Jets’ offense going forward because of Zach Wilson’s limitations at quarterback.
Dallas Goedert put his slow start all the way behind him against the Rams. He powered the Eagles’ offense on the first drive and didn’t look back. He runs routes on 80 percent of Eagles pass plays and hopefully Sunday was a sign that Jalen Hurts is noticing.
The kids say it’s cuffing season. I say it’s Kupping season. I’m so hip. Welcome back to the man, the myth, the weapon Cooper Kupp after a stint on the IR. He didn’t miss a beat while leading the Rams in targets, catches and yards. The big question: can the Rams support both Kupp and Puka Nacua? Puka had 71 yards and a touchdown, a BIG BOY touchdown at that, so I think Los Angeles (and fantasy owners) are happy to have them both running routes.
Raise your hand if you benched George Pickens this week. My hand is up, I hate that it’s up, and I wish I could put it down. The Ravens hadn’t allowed a 100-yard receiver all season. I was playing the odds, but it will be the last time I bench Pickens, who is clearly in synch with Kenny Pickett.
Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, our Honorable Mention, has three touchdowns this season. The Lions offense is a monster and I want every part of it. I’ll be bold: LaPorta will finish as a top-3 player at the position this season. Trade for him if you can!
The Duds
Texans WR Nico Collins continued his good game-bad game trend for the Texans by posting only 38 yards. Rams RB Kyren Williams barely did anything against a tough Philly front. Basically every Giants player continued to play like they were on the Giants. And Derrick Henry looked like anything but a King against Indy.
But even though this is a duds section, I do want to talk injuries. Anthony Richardson plays in a way that is seemingly conducive to injuries. His throwing shoulder injury forced him out of the game and could force him to miss time. Cardinals RB James Conner looked good before going down with a knee injury. And the first overall pick in many a fantasy draft, WR Justin Jefferson, couldn’t finish the Vikings game because of a hammy issue. See if Jordan Addison is still somehow on your waiver wire or even consider K.J. Osborn if you’re in a bind.
In perhaps the best matchup thus far this season, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys take on Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara for Sunday Night Football. Let’s look at the game:
San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys, 8:20 pm ET
Betting Odds (DraftKings)
Line: 49ers -3.5, Cowboys +3.5
Moneyline: 49ers (-184), Cowboys (+154)
Over/Under: 45
Team Ranks (2023)
49ers
Points for: 31.3 (3rd)
Points Allowed: 14.5 (T3rd)
Cowboys
Points For: 31 (4th)
Points Allowed: 10.3 (1st)
Key Injuries to Watch
49ers
RB Elijah Mitchell (Knee) – Out
Cowboys
TE Peyton Hendershot (Ankle) – Out
These injuries aren't game altering. Deebo Samuel has been nursing knee and rib injuries for a couple of weeks now, and it's being reported he won't be 100 percent. He played 87 percent of the snaps last week but failed to receive a single target. He’s not listed on the injury report. Mitchell will miss his second consecutive game which led to a few extra snaps for Jordan Mason.
Captain Prices (DraftKings)
Christian McCaffrey, RB $17,700
Tony Pollard, RB, $15,300
CeeDee Lamb, WR, $15,000
Dak Prescott QB, $14,400
Brock Purdy, QB, $14,100
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, $12,600
Deebo Samuel, WR, $11,400
Flex Prices (DraftKings)
Christian McCaffrey, RB $11,800
Tony Pollard, RB, $10,200
CeeDee Lamb, WR, $10,000
Dak Prescott QB, $9,600
Brock Purdy, QB, $9,400
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, $8,400
Deebo Samuel, WR, $7,600
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, McCaffrey is projected to be the most-owned Captain (43%) on the slate at DraftKings. The next closest projected in ownership is Brock Purdy at 9.5%. Regarding flex positions, it's projected to be much more balanced. In Showdown, 9 players are projected to be owned in over 30% of lineups. This includes both team defenses.
McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 13 straight games as a 49er, surpassing the legendary Jerry Rice. CMC found paydirt a career-high four times in San Francisco's 35-16 win over the Arizona Cardinals last week.
Entering Week 5, McCaffrey is the highest non-QB in NFL MVP future odds at +1800. Before Week 4, he was +4800 to win MVP. He is the No. 1 scoring running back in fantasy this season, and the Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most explosive runs this season.
The current Vegas total is 45 points, which might be tough to reach as the Cowboys are the fourth slowest, and the 49ers are the slowest in neutral pace. This will be a physical game from start to finish. Last season, the 49ers defeated the Cowboys 19-12 in the divisional round of the playoffs. Both teams have top-five offenses and defenses so far in 2023.
Captain Option
George Kittle, $9,600
The 49ers tight end projected ownership in the captain slot is just 0.6%! He would be a solid contrarian play on Sunday night and a less expensive option you can deploy. On paper, the matchup with the Cowboys offense doesn't look great, but Kittle is set up to produce on primetime after a deeper dive.
The Cowboys play man-to-man most of any NFL team. Brandon Aiyuk leads the 49ers in target share when facing man at 28.6%, and Kittle is second on the team at 20.5%. Aiyuk will have tough matchups against Daron Bland and Stephon Gilmore on the outside.
The Cowboys’ linebackers are aware of McCaffrey and the SF run game. They will likely stack the box to try to slow down CMC, which will let Kittle get open over the middle on play action, leading to big chunk plays and possibly a touchdown.
Fade
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
The Cowboys QB has been a glorified game manager through the first four weeks. His average depth of target is the second lowest of any quarterback so far this season at 5.9 yards, and the 49ers’ defense has held opposing quarterbacks to the second-lowest yards per attempt. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging a measly 12.8 fantasy points per game against the Niners’ defense.
Cheaper Option
49ers Defense/Special Teams $4,000
San Francisco's defense has dominated this season. They have more interceptions than touchdown passes thrown against them through the season's first month. Their run defense should slow down Tony Pollard and the Dallas running game. They have allowed the second-least explosive runs so far.
Prescott threw for just 206 yards and had 2 interceptions in the playoff loss last year in Santa Clara. Most importantly, for the 49ers defense to pay off, they need to get out to an early lead. Prescott has the best quarterback rating playing with a lead, but he drops to 26th when he's playing from behind.
Prediction
There's no doubt this is the most intriguing matchup so far in 2023. Both sides have Super Bowl aspirations and belong in the conversation. Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense is healthy, so I expect them to perform much better in this game than in the playoff loss last year.
The Cowboys lead the NFL in pressure rate, but Purdy has yet to fold when he's under pressure in the pocket. Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan know each other's tendencies well. I expect the 49ers to win, but the Cowboys will keep it close and gain plenty of respect around the NFL.
We have been very successful with our ‘Value Finder’ series this season. The Fantasy Sports Optimizer has helped me compile a list of players that should exceed expectations at cost. Here are my top values in Week 5:
QB: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (DK: $5,600, FD: $6,800)
The way to win a DFS contest is to be contrarian. The Philadelphia Eagles’ defense is one of the top units in the NFL, but Fantasy Sports Contrarian Optimizer and I believe they have an area that can be exploited — the secondary.
Through four weeks, the Eagles’ secondary has given up the seventh-most passing yards in the league. They have also given out two separate QB2 finishes for the week (Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins) and a QB12 to Sam Howell last week.
Stafford has had a rough start to the season and has not topped QB15 yet. But he’s a gunslinger and gets his top weapon back in wide receiver Cooper Kupp. That will open things up for Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell. This is a great week to get a contrarian, value option at quarterback.
RB: Breece Hall, New York Jets (DK: $5,400, FD: $6,500)
I love a great narrative story that is supported by facts. It feels like telling the future. Here is the narrative here:
Almost a year ago to the day, Hall tore his ACL in the first half of their game at Denver. He was potentially on his way to an Offensive Rookie of the Year award, and it was all over just like that. Now, here we are back at Denver, and the Broncos have given up the most rushing yards to running backs so far this season.
To top it off, the Broncos head coach last season was Nathaniel Hackett, who is now the offensive coordinator for the New York Jets. And did you catch what Sean Payton said about Hackett in the off-season?
This is a great matchup for Hall in a game that will have a roller coaster of emotions. The Jets have come out and said Hall is no longer being managed and will receive a full workload. The Fantasy Sports Contrarian Optimizer and I have Breece Hall as a great, sneaky play this week that could find himself as one of the top RBs of the week.
I know. I know. I know. DeAndre Hopkins has not looked as advertised for this offense. It’s been very tough sledding for the former All-Pro wideout. His best weekly finish this season is WR36. But this matchup versus the Indianapolis Colts is interesting.
The Colts are giving up the eighth most fantasy points to wide receivers. This is a game that is going to start in the trenches with Derrick Henry and he is going to take the pressure off Hopkins. If there is ever a boom week for Hopkins, it’s this one. He’s scored in five straight games versus the Colts.
We have repeat customer to the article! We hit big with Hurst in Week 1 and I love him again in this spot. This Detroit Lions defense’ has been really solid in defending wide receivers while giving up the most receiving yards to tight ends.
This should be a dominant game for the Lions and I’m expecting any work Bryce Young supplies to be in garbage time. This Lions defensive line should pressure Young into making quick throws and I believe Hurst can benefit. Hurst could have a nice PPR day and cap it off with a garbage time touchdown. Very cheap option with high upside for Week 5.
Diamondbacks at Dodgers, NLDS Game 1, 9:20 p.m. ET
Weather Report
Rangers at Orioles is delayed, but weather shouldn’t be an issue for any of the other three Game 1 options in the LDS Saturday.
Injury Report
Max Scherzer – The Rangers LHP was left off the roster as he hasn’t made enough progress from the shoulder issue that has sidelined the future Hall-of-Famer since the middle of September. The Rangers hope he could be back as an option if the team advances to the ALCS.
John Means – The Orioles LHP was left off the roster as he recovers from soreness in his left elbow. The southpaw pitched well in his four starts after returning from injury this summer, and there’s a very good chance he’ll return if the O’s reach the ALCS.
Gabriel Moreno – The Diamondbacks catcher was hit in the head in the Game 2 win over the Brewers when Brice Turang’s bat swing hit his helmet. The backstop passed concussion protocol, however, and appears to be ready to roll for Game 1. Keep in mind is the late game, so there’s a smidgen of risk keeping Moreno in the lineup.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Spencer Strider vs. PHI: $11,200
Clayton Kershaw vs. ARI: $9,100
Justin Verlander vs. MIN: $8,400
Bailey Ober @ HOU: $8,000
Merrill Kelly @ LAD: $7,800
Kyle Bradish vs. TEX: $7,500
Ranger Suarez @ PHI: $6,100
Dane Dunning @ BAL: $5,800
Strider struck out 281 batters and won 20 games for the best team in baseball but had a 5.60 ERA in five September starts. He did win all four decisions, however, and had 11 strikeouts and gave up three runs in seven innings in his last outing against the Phillies. Long story short, it’s easy to justify Strider in the lineup if you’re feeling it, but there’s more risk than reward.
Stack Attack
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks (Kelly)
C Will Smith: $4,400
2B Mookie Betts: $6,200
SS Miguel Rojas: $2,600
OF Jason Heyward: $3,100
Kelly has enjoyed a strong 2023 season, so this is more about belief in the Los Angeles lineup. He did struggle in his last outing against LA, giving up 12 hits and seven runs over five innings. This stack gives fantasy players a mix of big names like Betts and Smith with cheaper options like Rojas and Heyward. It’s easy to imagine the Dodgers getting off to a strong offensive start Saturday, with all due respect to Kelly and the D-Backs staff.
Going with a same game parlay in the Eagles-Rams game (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday). There is already nice value here, with this being priced at +238 on DraftKings. Hurts and Kupp are their team’s best redzone weapons, and the total of this game is currently set at 50.5.
Hurts, the king of the tush push, has all the goal line carries on lockdown and should have plenty of chances with an implied team total higher than four touchdowns.
This is also a good price for Kupp in his return. When healthy, he has been a redzone demon. The Rams are expected to be trailing, and QB Matthew Stafford will throw a lot against the Eagles’ strong run defense. They are especially weak against the slot, and that’s where Kupp will do a lot of his work.
Reports out of LA are that Kupp won’t be limited. I like his chances in a high-octane game.
Rookie Achane has six touchdowns over his last two games, showing next-level efficiency. He’s also out-snapped fellow Dolphin RB Raheem Mostert in back-to-back weeks, posting a 60-percentr snap rate to Mostert’s 44 percent last week.
The Dolphins are 12-point favorites against a miserable Giants defense, and we’ve really seen Achane blossom in the redzone. Miami had plenty of creative uses for him, and we’ve seen this Dolphins offense run up the score before (ask the Broncos about that).
Additionally, DraftKings has Achane priced much differently than the rest of the market, with his 1+ touchdown currently at +105 vs -125 to -175 everywhere else. For 2+ touchdowns, the next best price is +450, showing inherent value on these numbers.
I like targeting longshot touchdown scorers in a game where Colts QB Anthony Richardson will be tasked with beating the Titans through the air. Tennessee’s excellent rush defense will focus on limiting RB Jonathan Taylor and thereby testing Richardson’s passing.
AR-15 has been inconsistent, but he’s also made very nice downfield throws. Pierce will get an opportunity or two downfield, and I like taking that chance against a defense struggling with explosive plays.
Granson really popped last game. He led the Colts TE group in snaps and was consistently involved on third downs. Richardson likes keying in on his tight ends, and Indy will be forced into more of a pass heavy game script.
Richardson will have a boom or bust game; I want some exposure if he can take advantage of this bad pass defense.
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