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Six teams on bye Week 7 Waiver Targets
Week 7 is one of two Bye-pocalypses in the 2023 NFL Season. Six teams are on bye this coming week which means the waiver wire is more important than ever as the players you pick up have a good chance of needing to be started in the place of a usual starter on bye. Add to this the unusually high number of injuries in week 6 and a lot of our teams will be a patchwork posse of bench riders and waiver wire finds. Let’s get started.
Week 7 Byes: Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans
Wide Receivers
Joshua Palmer (65% Rostered)
Give a peek to see if Joshua Palmer is still on your waiver wire because he’s sitting there in a little over a third of leagues. Mike Williams is done for the year and Quentin Johnston hasn’t been much of a factor (yet). For the foreseeable future, Palmer is the WR2 in a pass heavy offense.
Rashee Rice (55% Rostered)
Is this real? A Chiefs wide receiver we can trust for fantasy? Maybe not yet, but if Rashee Rice isn’t rostered in your league don’t wait until we find out the answer to that question before picking him up.
Rice has put up two decent weeks in a row, but more importantly he’s starting to look more involved in the offense on a weekly basis. Like we discussed in last week’s waiver article, second half of the year breakouts for rookie wide receivers are common and Rice is in the right offense for a breakout.
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Curtis Samuel (51% Rostered)
Curtis Samuel has had a touchdown in each of his last three games, leading him to WR 12, WR 14, and WR 23 PPR finishes over that time. While some may look at this as a sign of upcoming touchdown regression, I see a forming connection over the middle of the field between Sam Howell & Curtis Samuel.
Samuel has been the most consistent of the Washington receiving options and should remain relatively consistent in his usage going forward. If he scores a touchdown, you’re happy you started him. And Samuel is one of the more likely players on the Commanders to find the end zone.
Josh Downs (50% Rostered)
You love watching a player catch their first career touchdown, especially when it comes the week after a “breakout” performance in week 5. Although Anthony Richardson appears to be done for the year (“probably” as Jim Irsay put it), this could be good for Josh Downs fantasy production.
Downs volume didn’t see a dip with Gardner Minshew under center as he remained the 2nd target on the team behind Michael Pittman. The Colts offense with Minshew under center won’t have as many explosive down field plays (a Josh Downs specialty), but there should be more week to week consistency.
Wan’Dale Robinson (28% Rostered)
While I would prefer to start nobody on the Giants not named Saquon Barkley, sometimes your whole bench is on bye and you gotta do what you gotta do. If you’re going to start a Giants wideout, there is some upside for a now healthy Wan’Dale Robinson.
Were the 8 targets he saw this weekend a result of Tyrod Taylor taking over at QB or a sign of him returning to form after his ACL recovery? We’ve seen flashes from Robinson before so I tend to lean towards the latter as the answer. That being said, this Giants offense is inconsistent at best and with Daniel Jones chucking the ball from behind the most porous offensive line in the league, consistency will not be find with any Giants receiver.
Running Backs
Roschon Johnson (60% Rostered)
With seemingly the entirety of the Bears running back rook injured in week 6, you might be able to sneak Roschon Johnson off the waiver wire heading into week 7.
The fantasy numbers thus far do not look fantastic, but the back field is wide open and Chicago seems to like what they have in their 4th round rookie running back. Roschon missed last week due to a concussion but should be back this coming week.
While Khalil Herbert deals with a high ankle injury and Travis Homer deals with a hamstring, Johnson could grab a hold of the lead back role here and not let go.
Elijah Mitchell (34% Rostered) & Jordan Mason (4% Rostered)
Christian McCaffrey went down in Sunday’s loss to the Browns, a double whammy for the 49ers on Sunday. While it is still unclear if CMC will miss any time due to this injury, Coach Kyle Shanahan has already confirmed that Elijah Mitchell will be the next man up if McCaffrey does indeed miss.
We’ve seen Mitchell perform as a high end RB2/low end RB1 as the starting running back in San Francisco before. Don’t judge the negative yardage performance on limited carries against arguably the best defense in football that we saw from Mitchell this weekend. He’ll get first crack at leading this backfield for the duration of any missed time by CMC.
There is the slight chance the Jordan Mason takes over this backfield (or has enough touches to be relevant) if CMC misses time. He’s worth a speculative add, but Mitchell is the priority here.
Zach Evans (5% Rostered)
A rookie running back with a grand total of one PPR fantasy point through 6 weeks is a legitimate waiver wire add in week 7.
Both Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers are currently dealing with injuries, leaving Zach Evans as the last man standing in a less than stellar Rams running back room. With that being said, Kyren Williams has found success in this role and Williams isn’t a top tier talent back. Expect the rookie Evans to struggle with the workload, but volume alone should be enough to make him fantasy relevant while the two other backs miss time.
Craig Reynolds (2% Rostered)
With both Gibbs and Montgomery dealing with injuries in week 6, Reynolds saw his biggest workload of the season with 10 carries and 2 targets coming his way. Should one (or both) of the other backs be sidelined again in week 7, Reynolds holds startable value.
With both backs out, you can start Reynolds as an RB2 with upside in this high powered Lions offense. If Gibbs is able to return this week, Reynolds is still startable but more as an RB3/Flex play.
Tight Ends
Jonnu Smith (24% Rostered)
I am here to yet again let you know that Jonnu Smith can (and should) be started in the year of 2023. Fantasy managers are near unanimous in thinking Smith’s usage is absurd with Kyle Pitts also on the team.
With Tight Ends, we look for usage and Jonnu Smith has seen at least 5 targets in every game since week 2. Smith also has turned in four top 15 tight end weeks, two of those being top 5. All of this with his first touchdown of the year coming this past week. A touchdown makes you a happy camper if you start Jonnu, but his target volume alone makes him fantasy relevant most weeks.
Michael Mayer (12% Rostered)
Rookie Tight Ends take time to break out, so when we start seeing a trend of increased usage and production it’s time to start paying attention. Mayer has posted career highs in snaps, targets, and yards in back to back weeks now. With Davante Adams seeing most of the defensive focus on Sunday, Mayer was able to eat to the tune of a top 5 Tight End performance.
Don’t expect weekly consistency, but Mayer is a suitable bye week replacement and could see his role grow as the season progresses.
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell (40% Rostered)
Sam Howell so far on the year seems to be a very matchup dependent QB. The good news is that this Commanders team has seen a ton of good matchups and has quite a few more left this season. Howell’s one “bad” game came against the Buffalo Bills defense while he’s turned in top 10 QB weeks against the likes of Chicago and Atlanta in back to back weeks.
With the Giants and the Eagles on the schedule the next two weeks, you can roll with Howell confidently for the next two weeks as your starter.
Desmond Ridder (15% Rostered)
Ridder has given you a balanced season thus far: Three top 10 QB weeks and three QB weeks outside the top 24 options. With that being said, two of Ridder’s three good weeks have come over the last two weeks to go along with Atlanta’s commitment to throwing the ball more.
While the matchup against the Buccaneers is a step up in competition compared to the Washington and Houston secondaries, Ridder is still a startable bye week replacement QB. Hopefully the Falcons continue chucking the ball 40 times a game. If so, Ridder could become more than that weekly spot start.
Other Streamers
Daniel Jones (34% Rostered) / Tyrod Taylor (4% Rostered)
Derek Carr (28% Rostered)
Baker Mayfield (31% Rostered)
Joshua Dobbs (21% Rostered)
Rookies and young players on verge of breakouts
When it comes to fantasy basketball, the preseason can be misleading. Some players benefit from expanded roles with the usual starters sitting, such as Tre Mann, who had 18 points, eight rebounds, five assists, one steal and one block after Cason Wallace exited early with a toe injury on Sunday.
Mann is a solid depth piece, but his performance isn’t going to translate into real production this season, even if it was encouraging. Mann may be a solid streaming option from time to time, but this game isn’t a sign of things to come.
Mainly, we’ll look at rookies and other young guys on the cusp of a breakout season. We’ll be keeping an eye on the dynasty value of players right here, every Monday. With the regular season coming up Oct. 24, let’s analyze how a handful of players have looked during the preseason and how their dynasty value could change.
Before he even played a game, I had Wemby ranked third in my dynasty rankings. Now that he’s suited up for the Spurs, I think having him third should be his floor. I still have Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic ahead, but I think he could move higher quickly. Wemby has looked generational through two preseason games, and the only reason for him to not be higher than three is that Jokic and Luka are better right now.
However, if he continues his preseason production into the regular season, I won’t hesitate to move him ahead of both Jokic and Luka, especially for younger dynasty rosters. His preseason performance did nothing to slow the hype.
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Much like Wemby, the hype around Chet can’t grow much more. I had him ranked 14th in dynasty, but I’m tempted to move him into the top 10. He has a fantasy friendly game and has looked really good early, though the first preseason game was much better than his second. Against Detroit, he shot 4-for-11 from the field and only grabbed four rebounds in 14 minutes.
We saw a good game against the Spurs and a subpar game against the Pistons. For this season, he should be really good, but if his performance against San Antonio is a glimpse of what this kid could look like, his dynasty stock will never be lower than it is right now.
The numbers don’t show how good Scoot has been through three preseason games. He didn’t play much in their first game against the New Zealand Breakers, but he was incredible against the Suns. He struggled with his shot a bit against the Jazz, but still had eight assists. It’s his feel for the game that has stood out. He is a star in the making and the clear second-best player in this class (sorry, I still can’t get over Charlotte passing on him, even if Brandon Miller has looked good during the preseason).
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Scoot’s first year may be a struggle at times, like it is for most rookie point guards. However, you can already tell that this is his team. He’s going to be good for a long time, which is why I have him as a top-20 dynasty asset.
Many analysts have pegged JJ as a sleeper and late-round target. He started in Atlanta’s first two preseason games before coming off the bench in the third. He has 13 assists in 55 minutes and has showcased the ability to produce defensive stats and knock down shots from deep.
However, we can’t get too far ahead of ourselves. With the way the Hawks are currently constructed, it is unlikely Johnson starts, at least right off. The three frontcourt starters will likely be De’Andre Hunter, Saddiq Bey and Clint Capela.
Johnson has a lot of hype now, but that could die down quickly if his role is limited. That is the best time to buy in. He’s the starter of the future, but it is unlikely that he will be one to open the year.
Kuminga is in the same boat as Johnson -- a third-year player who had been underutilized in his first two seasons who was having a really good preseason. Through three preseason games, he is averaging 26 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.7 triples per game. He hasn’t shot the ball incredibly well from deep through two seasons, but if that is a legit part of his game, he can be incredibly valuable in fantasy.
However, the situation in Golden State isn’t ideal. That’s why it’s important to look ahead. The Warriors extended Draymond for four more years, which means that Kuminga won’t be starting for them anytime soon. There’s a real chance they trade him to acquire more “win-now” talent at the deadline, which would be ideal for him. Kuminga has showcased his talent this preseason, but he won’t get the chance to pop until he is on a team that will give him an expanded role.
I didn’t have Coulibaly starting at small forward on my bingo card after the draft. Frankly, I was surprised Washington traded up for him. He just turned 19 in July, yet he has seven steals and two blocks through two preseason games. He also scored 12 points and hit two triples against the Hornets on Thursday.
Defense is going to get him on the floor, but if he can provide value offensively as well, he’s going to be incredibly dangerous, especially in fantasy. We just saw Jalen Williams have a really good rookie season and finish among the league leaders in steals.
Coulibaly may not produce to the same level, but he should be able to provide swipes from day 1. He should get a chance to work through his mistakes in Washington, so this situation is ideal for him. I’m all in on Coulibaly.
I still like Amen more than Ausar long-term, which is why I have him ranked a few spots higher. However, Ausar being a starter from day 1 will help his progression a lot. Amen might be stuck behind Fred VanVleet for a few seasons, but Ausar will be a producer from day 1. He hasn’t shot the ball well, but he’s averaging 10.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.0 triple per game.
While he’ll have to share the ball with Cade Cunningham, Ausar has shown that he can make an impact on both ends of the floor without needing the ball. Any questions about the Thompson twins need to be laid to rest. The twins are future stars. It’s all about opportunity for them, and Ausar’s appears to be coming much, much earlier.
These last two are for the dynasty sickos. Sure, stars matter, but these are for the managers that do it for the love of the game. The ones that get frustrated because someone won’t accept their trade offer of two second-round rookie picks to move up a few spots in the second round of their draft to get the 18-year-old that might be able to crack an NBA rotation someday. But that’s their guy, and they want them bad. If that sounds like you, then strap in.
After a really solid Summer League performance, Strawther has averaged 20.3 points and four triples through three preseason games. He could end up as part of Denver’s rotation, since they lost multiple role players in free agency. This is why they drafted him with the 29th pick. That may not lead to much fantasy value, but being in the rotation for the NBA champs is a good start.
I was a tad surprised Camara was included in the Deandre Ayton trade. Apparently, Phoenix liked him, but not enough to keep him out of talks to end Ayton’s tenure with the Suns. After averaging 16.3 points and seven rebounds in Summer League, Camara had a really solid game on Saturday with 13 points, five rebounds, two assists, one steal, two blocks and three 3-pointers.
He may not have a huge role to start the year with Portland, but if they end up tanking hard (as they did the last two seasons), he could see an expanded role late in the year. He’s a guy that plays hard and should be a rotational NBA player within a few seasons. He’s worth stashing.
Video: Check out who our folks are picking
The NBA season begins next week on Tuesday, Oct. 24, and it's a busy time for NBA Fantasy players to prepare for and conduct their league drafts, in whatever format they might be.
Sportstopia isn't sitting on the sidelines, we've got our own league going! We gathered our best DFS minds -- many of whom you see regularly on our Fire & Ice shows -- to go through our 9-category league draft. Check out their picks and their insights about all the players, it could help you out as you get ready for your drafts!
Contrarian Edge Optimizer a great tool for DFS points
An optimizer is a powerful tool for DFS, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. But we must first learn how to wield an optimizer to realize its true power.
That’s what we try to do in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Sportstopia’s Contrarian Edge Optimizer for every Monday Night Football game this season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the industry’s newest and most dynamic optimizer.
MNF, Week 6: Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers
The first run from the CEO, without altering any settings, returns a MNF showdown roster consisting of Michael Gallup at captain, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Dak Prescott, Jake Ferguson, and CeeDee Lamb. Clearly, the optimizer likes the passing game from each team. We’ll cover some of the theoretical implications of a low-priced captain below.
There are two primary theoretical principles that guide captain selection in showdown – you either need the highest scoring player from a raw points perspective or an over-performing cheap player that unlocks the ability to gain exposure to numerous pay-up options throughout the remainder of the roster.
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In the first instance, separator scores are most valuable as no other player comes close to matching the production on a slate from one of the players. In the latter instance, and as is pertinent to the returns from the optimizer on first run, scoring is condensed at the top from a raw point total perspective, making it necessary to capture multiple players from the top tier of player pricing.
The hit rates are typically greater to capture the highest raw point total in the captain spot, but so too will the ownership be.
This then becomes an interesting discussion regarding hit rate, ownership, and leverage. From a theoretical sense, there are two paths to top-end scoring from a pass-catcher – we either need to capture bulk scoring through yardage (a downfield role) or touchdowns.
Either of those cases theoretically ties the pass-catcher to their respective quarterback, which the optimizer has done with Gallup and Ferguson present on the optimal roster. Even so, we must realize that touchdowns and deep shots downfield are two of the most variant acts found in the NFL, making a roster like this highly variant as well.
As such, optimal utilization of a roster like this would be directly tied to ownership. In other words, this roster is likely to be duplicated on this slate and would become less optimal due to the high variance included via the use of Gallup in the captain slot and another variant piece in Ferguson. It is typically a higher expected value stance to target variance at low ownership.
To continue that discussion, Gallup is currently projected for around 17 percent ownership in the captain slot due to what he opens up on the rest of the roster. As we just discussed, he is a highly volatile play on this slate while working in a downfield role on the Cowboys offense, which is typically a position to take at low ownership and relatively fade at higher ownership.
For comparison, Austin Ekeler is currently projected for around 6 percent ownership at captain yet offers clear paths to being the top overall scorer on the slate, with his low ownership likely influenced by the combination of uncertainty surrounding his first game back from injury and the state of the slate, with so many high-priced viable options that people want to jam into rosters.
A bet like Ekeler in the captain slot is a +EV bet to make over the long run, considering he is a guy that can return outlier scoring and be the highest scoring player in this game at a rate greater than his 6 percent ownership.
To harness this leverage angle, lock Ekeler into the captain slot and run the optimizer. See what types of rosters are returned. My personal favorite from the list of returned rosters with Ekeler at captain includes Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Ferguson, Cameron Dicker (the kicker), and Gallup.
As you can see, both variant players that were present on the initial run (Gallup and Ferguson) are still present on this roster but the combinatorial ownership of the roster as a whole is far less with Ekeler at captain, meaning we’re fighting with fewer rosters at the top (and potentially would be splitting first place with fewer rosters should it hit!).
This was an exercise in the marriage of theoretics and analytics, using our knowledge of game theory to influence the Contrarian Edge Optimizer’s process only slightly. There are clearly other theoretical angles to play on this slate, which you can use to build a +EV portfolio on a single-game slate.
Pitching and stacks options for ALCS, NLCS
Rangers at Astros, ALCS Game 2, 4:37 p.m. ET
Diamondbacks at Phillies, NLCS Game 1, 8:07 p.m. ET
It will be a smidgen on the cold side in Philadelphia with a very slight chance of rain, but both games should be played without issue.
Brandon Woodruff -- shoulder: It’s not relevant to the LCS, but it is big news. Woodruff underwent surgery to repair the anterior capsule in his right shoulder, and he’s expected to miss most -- if not all -- of the 2024 season. When healthy, the right-hander has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, but now the question is if Woodruff has thrown his last pitch as a Brewer since he’s not signed past the upcoming season. Either way, he won’t provide very much fantasy relevance in 2024, if any.
Wheeler and Gallen are the headliners and are big reasons why both teams are just four wins away from the World Series. In his two postseason starts thus far, Wheeler has allowed three runs with a sensational 18/1 K/BB over 13 frames, while Gallen has pitched well in both of his postseason starts while picking up wins.
Wheeler makes more sense as a DFS play because he’s much more likely to miss bats, and the Phillies do have home-field advantage.
It’s a little surprising that Eovaldi is cheapest, but part of that is the Rangers won Game 1 and Houston is the favorite to even the series. That said, he’ll be in my DFS lineup. No pitcher in this postseason has impressed me more. The right-hander has yet to walk a batter while striking out 15 in his starts against the Orioles and Rays, and his 1.32 ERA doesn’t really tell the story of just how dominant he’s been. Considering his postseason track record and how well he pitched earlier this year, there’s evidence this isn’t just smoke and mirrors.
One thing that gives me a little bit of hesitancy for using the Rangers -- outside of the fact that Valdez is really good -- is this will be the first time this postseason they face a left-handed starter. They were fine against southpaws in the regular season (.788 OPS compared to .790 against right-handers), and I think there are some things to exploit here. Potentially, anyway.
Valdez walked three batters in his shaky start against Minnesota in the ALDS, and the Rangers have patient hitters who can take advantage of self-inflicted damage.
I’m relying heavily on the Phillies and Rangers, as I think those are your two winners. I do get a piece of both the Astros and D-Backs with Walker and Pena, but I don’t want to see too much damage done against my starters.
I like Castellanos and Schwarber to put together strong games against Gallen, and while I hope it’s kept to a minimum -- strictly for financial purposes -- both Walker and Pena have a good chance for solid games.
Check out our Studs and Duds from NFL's Week 6
When my son was born this past summer, I could picture football season with him. There’s something special about seeing him in his football outfits and imagining the bond we might have over the game.
This past weekend, my biggest fantasy rival in my home leagues welcomed his family’s first child, also. This guy just can’t stop copying me. Wants to be as good at fantasy football as me. I have a kid, he has a kid. Can you believe this dude?
My rival also happens to be one of my best friends in the world and I know he’ll try to establish that same football bond with his daughter. Maybe one day my son and his daughter will be in their own leagues, making their own trades and agonizing over waiver wire decisions.
It’s yet another cool thing about this silly game we play. We all want to win, but we can’t forget about the fun we have with the people in our leagues. The most important thing in this, however, is that if my son and my buddy’s daughter are in a league together, the tradition of my family dominating his in fantasy sports will continue!
And with that, let’s recap Week 6!
I’ve said this in different ways before, but it bears repeating: I try to highlight different players every week here. There are plenty of obvious studs out there, but I only want to highlight them when they go nuclear. Do you need to hear Tyreek Hill is good every week?
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So are the Dolphins. So is Raheem Mostert, who put to bed any doubts about the running game with De’Von Achane on IR. You probably can’t get Mostert but think about getting Jeff Wilson Jr. if he’s around because it seems like it doesn’t matter who’s running the ball in Miami, they’ve got a chance to score.
Kyren Williams had four yards at halftime. He had 158 at the end of the game. Sean McVay decided he was going to try and run the Cardinals defense into the ground and Williams obliged. When it wasn’t Kyren, it was Cooper Kupp, who’s as close to automatic as it gets.
The downside, at least for this game, was there was virtually no Puka Nacua. If Rams go run heavy, it could be sad days ahead for the Puka backers. Hopefully Williams’ ankle injury isn’t a bad one.
Is Jared Goff an MVP candidate? He’s a top-10 fantasy QB so far while directing traffic for the Lions offense. He could set personal records for yards and touchdowns. It helps to have Amon-Ra St. Brown, who didn’t miss a beat after being out last week. David Montgomery left the game, which may have forced the Lions to rely more on their passing game, but it looks like Goff and co. can handle the load.
Many people, including me, wondered if Derrick Henry didn’t have it anymore. Well, what better place for a King to adjust his crown than in England? Henry looked fast and powerful on his bigger runs through the Baltimore defense and gave fantasy owners reason to relax.
Ok, that’s two 300-plus passing yard games in a row from Desmond Ridder in Atlanta. Drake London turned in his first 100-plus yard day of the season. That’s the good news. Ridder still threw three picks and London couldn’t find the end zone. It feels like the Atlanta offense will always make me think it could be better. But, hey, at least Kyle Pitts scored.
Without Miles Sanders, Chubba Hubbard was … serviceable! They gave it to him 19 times and he had just under 90 yards and a touchdown. You’ll take that every time. The not fun part: 1 target.
It’s clear that Michael Pittman is Gardner Minshew’s favorite target. He had 14 targets on his way to a 9-grab, 100-plus yard day. Minshew loves targeting this guy and he might be the QB for the rest of the year if Anthony Richardson gets season ending surgery. Hope you have Pittman in PPR formats!
This might be a cop-out, but I’ll just say the injury bug can GTFO of here and in a hurry! The blue medical tent was a who’s who of NFL talent -- Christian McCaffrey, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Deebo Samuel … and those are just some of the names! Let’s hope they recover quickly.
Now for the players that stayed healthy. Losing CMC obviously hurt the 49ers, but Brock Purdy didn’t step up when needed. He also had nothing going with one of last weekend’s studs: George Kittle. You can’t tell me San Francisco fell apart by losing one guy.
Speaking of losing, the Philadelphia Eagles lost to the New York Jets! Hurts had three interceptions and an un-Hurts-like game, but you got a rushing and a passing touchdown. DeVonta Smith turned in another subpar game, but it wasn’t for lack of opportunity -- 11 targets should give Smith owners reassurance that better days are ahead.
I’ll also throw the Buccaneers QB/WR duo on here. Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans got nothing going against the Lions. The early bye might have helped the Bucs get a little more healthy, but it certainly did not look like they did a lot of game planning on the week off.
Captain and flex options for SNF game
We've made it to another Sunday night! After an action-packed day, we cap off another wild weekend with what might be the most lopsided matchup we've seen to this point in 2023. The struggling New York Giants will travel to Buffalo to take on Josh Allen and the Bills for Sunday Night Football.
Bills
Giants
Bills
Giants
The injury report for the Giants reads like a novel. Jones is out and Tyrod Taylor will start in his place. Superstar running back Saquon Barkley is questionable, but he participated in practice all week. If he is active, he’ll likely be limited. The biggest issue for the Giants is their offensive line is in complete shambles. They’re in for a long night.
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Allen is not surprisingly projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate over at DraftKings in over 32% of lineups. Diggs projected to Captain 29% of lineups. The next closest projected is the Bills defense at 8.4%.
Regarding flex positions, it's projected to be much more balanced. In Showdown lineups, Taylor is expected to be appear in over 44% of lineups. Cook is projected to be in 27%
The current Vegas total is down to 43.5 points. Each offense plays at a slower than average neutral pace, but we can expect the Bills offense to be on the field much more.
Unfortunately, we must endure the Giants on primetime again but it’s a great opportunity to make this game fun to win some money with our Showdown lineup! The Bills are returning home from their trip to London, and they will be eager to get back on track.
The intriguing story is Brian Daboll returning to face his former team and the quarterback he coached up so well, Josh Allen. According to DVOA, Buffalo is the best 3-2 team of all time. Allen and the Bills are poised to destroy the G-Men.
Stefon Diggs, WR, $18,300
The Optimizer is suggesting placing Diggs in your Captain slot. He is projected to appear in 28.6% of lineups as the captain so it doesn’t necessarily give you an edge, but Diggs should once again dominate. Under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, the Giants play man-to-man at the fourth-highest rate and are dead last in QB pressures.
Allen is third in yards per attempt and passing grade. Adoree Jackson and rookie Deonte Banks will be tasked in slowing down Diggs. They won’t be able to.
James Cook, RB, $13,800
By rostering Cook in your Captain slot you can likely get Allen and Diggs also in your lineups. Cook hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire but a breakout performance is looming. We all expect Buffalo to get out to an early lead.
The Giants have been the third-most favorable matchups for running backs in RushEPA. New York has allowed over 5 yards per carry and the second-most rushing yards overall. Despite a terrible stat line in Week 5, Cook played on 62% of the snaps. I love the spot to let James cook!
Bills Defense/Special Teams $6,600
We can’t put any trust in any Giant. Waller finally had a solid game in Week 5 and the Bills are without stud linebacker Matt Milano. This could hurt Buffalo defending opposing tight ends as we move further into the season, but Taylor is not instilling fear Sunday night.
The Bills defense brings the 10th best pressure rate into Week 6 and that’s with Von Miller only playing 20 snaps so far this season. The Bills defense has suffered a few significant season-ending injuries, but their defensive line is as strong as ever.
This is a “revenge game” for Taylor, but the current state of the Giants offensive line makes this a smash spot for the Bills defense!
The Bills will crush the Giants. I’m a Giants fan and have zero faith in this team. They are the worst team in the NFL. The injuries are simply too much for them to handle. Buffalo is upset after their loss in London and will look to finish this one early. The one saving grace for the Giants might be the fact that the Bills loved Daboll and likely won’t try to embarrass him too much on national TV.
Final Score: Bills 38, Giants 6
Our predictions for NBA Finals, conferences, divisions
The 2023 NBA season is almost here. The offseason never fails to disappoint, as I call it the best drama in the world. Last season we saw Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets stake their claim at the top, but will they follow that up with the same success?
The Milwaukee Bucks made the surprise move of the summer when they acquired Damian Lillard, thereby becoming the odds-on-favorite to win the NBA championship. The Bucks swept the rug right out from under the Miami Heat, who had been rumored to be the top potential landing spot for Lillard. Still, the Heat won’t go down without a fight if Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are playing in South Beach.
Quietly, the Boston Celtics have had an extremely strong offseason, getting the ‘Unicorn’ Kristaps Porzingis to play alongside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Perhaps the most surprising move was the snowball effect of the Lillard trade. Jrue Holiday was sent to Portland in the package for Lillard, and the Blazers quickly flipped Holiday in another trade. The Celtics jumped at the opportunity and acquired Holiday, whom they believe will push them to the next level.
So which franchise will ascend to win the NBA championship?
Following the Lillard trade, the Milwaukee Bucks were immediately pegged as favorites. There is still a looming question of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future with Milwaukee, but acquiring Lillard certainly puts fear into the Eastern Conference. Dare I say Giannis and Dame are the best inside-outside dual threat since Shaq and Kobe?
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The Bucks will be tough, but there’s another team in the Eastern Conference that can go toe to toe with them -- the Boston Celtics. They also have a new-look lineup with the additions of Porzingis and Holiday, and All-NBA guards Brown and Tatum were already a powerful tandem.
The Phoenix Suns are primed to make a run at the Nuggets out West after they upgraded their roster. Phoenix acquired Kevin Durant midseason a year ago, and to do so, they squandered any depth they had on its roster. The Suns have taken the offseason to build back its lineup and lengthen its bench. I’m not convinced they have enough on the defensive end to slow down the Nuggets or Warriors in a playoff matchup.
The Milwaukee Bucks are my pick to win the 2024 NBA Championship. Lillard has excellent playoff experience and is the right fit to play alongside two-time MVP Antetokounmpo. Khris Middleton is one of the most underrated players in recent memory and is healthy after dealing with injuries all last season. Milwaukee has unfinished business and a chip on their shoulder after getting bounced in the first round by the Miami Heat. Milwaukee has great depth with their bench, led by Bobby Portis, Malik Beasley, Jae Crowder, and Cam Payne. Many people love the Nuggets to repeat, but it’s a tall task to repeat as champions in any major sport.
Pick: Bucks +380
Spoiler alert --I clearly believe in the Bucks to be crowned Eastern Conference Champions. Lillard is a bona fide superstar pairing with Giannis. The story we’ll hear about all season long is that Giannis is playing without a long-term contract. There will be plenty of incentive for the Bucks to return to the NBA Finals.
The defending Eastern Conference champions aren’t going to sneak up on anyone this season. The Miami Heat sit fifth in Eastern Conference winner odds. They were the big losers of the summer, missing out on the big names. The Knicks are a fun team to watch after a run to the Eastern Conference semifinals last season. Led By Jalen Brunson, it will be interesting to see if the Knicks will be able to duplicate the success. My guess is no.
Surprisingly, the Cavaliers fall next in line behind the Bucks and Celtics. Cleveland has an excellent core of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen. The Cavs were bounced out of the playoffs by the Knicks, and they will likely be one of the hungriest teams in the East.
The Eastern Conference will eventually come down to the two juggernauts. Hopefully, we get to see the Bucks and Celtics square off in a 7-game series. During the last playoff run, there were multiple instances that left us questioning the coaching decisions of Joe Mazzulla and the Celtics staff. Mazzulla will be in his second year as Head Coach, but we can’t ignore the poor decision-making we saw last postseason. The Celtics bench depth can’t compare to the Bucks, so ultimately, Milwaukee will represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.
Prediction: Bucks +175
It’s no secret the Western Conference is deep. There happens to be decent value on a few teams out West. The Nuggets are the favorites alongside the Suns after their dominating postseason run on their way to an NBA Championship. Nikola Jokic is a special player, and the rest of the roster will be returning outside of Bruce Brown. Jamal Murray put together a great season, but the Nuggets will likely require a third superstar to step up if they want to make another deep run.
The Phoenix Suns, led by Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, are breathing down the necks of the Nuggets. The Suns somehow acquired Bradley Beal in a trade that involved Chris Paul and now have arguably a more dynamic Big 3 than we saw in Miami with LeBron, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh. The Suns made another significant trade as they were the third team involved with the Bucks and Trail Blazers that sent Damian Lillard to Milwaukee. Phoenix moved on from Deandre Ayton and was able to add Jusuf Nurkic and Grayson Allen. I’m not convinced the Suns have enough depth still on its roster behind Durant, Booker, and Beal, who have all dealt with injuries in some capacity the last couple of seasons. If the Suns happen to come into the playoffs healthy, it will be difficult for any team to take down the powerhouse trio in the desert.
When I look at the West, I can’t help but look further down the board. Do the Warriors have another championship run in the tank after adding Chris Paul? Golden State isn’t far removed from being the latest greatest NBA dynasty. The Lakers, led by LeBron James, are also set up to truly contend for the first time in a season that wasn’t in the bubble.
The Lakers had a terrific run in the second half of last season that saw them reach the Western Conference Finals. As always, the question is, can LJ and AD remain healthy? The Lakers have one of the most balanced rosters, with an excellent core that includes D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Rui Hachimura. LA also added key pieces such as Gabe Vincent, Christian Wood, and Taurean Prince.
Unless Michael Porter Jr. or Aaron Gordon steps up and becomes the third superstar for Denver, I think we’ll see a new team representing the West in the Finals. A Bucks-Lakers Finals would be entertaining and might be our last chance at watching LeBron in the Finals. I believe Rob Pelinka and the Lakers understand the clock is ticking and will do everything they can to make sure LeBron is surrounded by the right pieces to reach the Finals one more time.
Prediction: Lakers +750
Atlantic Division Odds (Via FanDuel)
The Atlantic division is probably the murkiest of them all in the Eastern Conference. Yet, the Boston Celtics will likely be too much for any team to keep up with during the regular season. Boston will look a bit differently from recent years with the additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The reigning league MVP Joel Embiid won’t go down without a fight though, as he in the 76ers are a true contender in the East.
Pick: Celtics -240
Central Division Odds (Via FanDuel)
If I weren’t so high on the Bucks, this would be a division with value. The Cavaliers should be even more improved with their excellent young core. The Pacers are one of my favorite teams to surprise season. It’s been three years since Indiana made the playoffs, but I think that ends in 2023. They have a solid group led by Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, and Bruce Brown. The Pacers will be among the play-in teams this season. Ultimately the Bucks will run away with the Central Division crown.
Pick: Bucks -360
Southeast Division Odds (Via FanDuel)
There isn’t much competition for the Miami Heat in the Southeast division, but the Atlanta Hawks will be coached by Quin Snyder for the first full season. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray can be a dynamic guard pairing, but the Heat are still the team to beat in the Southeast. The Magic are an exciting team to keep an eye on, but they have plenty of work to do.
Pick: Heat -190
Northwest Division Odds (Via FanDuel)
The Denver Nuggets should run away with the Northwest Division.
Pick: Nuggets -390
Pacific Division Odds (Via FanDuel)
The Pacific is far and away the deepest division. Every team is a contender in the West. Last season, Sacramento surprised most when they won the division. According to the sportsbooks, the new-look Phoenix Suns, led by the NBA’s newest Big 3, are the favorites to usurp Denver out West. The Suns will require to stay healthy though, as their bench is very thin compared to some of the other teams in the Pacific.
We can never rule out the Dubs. They have one of the deepest rosters in the NBA and will be refueled for another championship run. The biggest maybe in the NBA is the question of health for the Clippers. With a core of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook, they can compete with any team in the NBA IF they are healthy. That’s not something I’m willing to trust. The Lakers barely made the postseason a year ago, but they got to the Western Conference Finals. They have its best roster entering a season since LeBron joined LA. It will be difficult for the Kings to repeat, and the Suns are an injury away from disaster.
Pick: Warriors +390
Southwest Division Odds (Via FanDuel)
The Southwest is the most intriguing out West. Will Victor Wembanyama make an immediate impact for the Spurs? Will the Rockets make the next step after bringing in free agents Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks to play alongside emerging stars Jabari Smith Jr. and Jalen Green? The Mavs' Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving might be the most polarizing backcourt in NBA history. The Memphis Grizzlies are the favorites, but they may stumble early with Ja Morant suspended for the first 25 games and I’m not convinced the addition of Marcus Smart will be enough to make up for it. There are no excuses for Zion Williamson. The Pelicans ranked 8th overall in offense, and they were 10 games over .500 before Zion was injured in the middle of last season.
Pick: Pelicans +210
Steezy A. gives you his fades for Week 6
I’ve mentioned this before, but I’m really starting to believe that a few of my weekly readers include the very players I write about.
They say to treat your wins like your losses - it’s all temporary! Now let’s forge ahead and fade ‘em up - Steezy A style (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel).
Anytime a rookie QB is missing one of his more explosive playmakers (Tank Dell is out with a concussion) against one of best defenses in the NFL, you question whether or not he’ll be able to put up the requisite numbers necessary to make a dent in fantasy lineups.
In week 6, the rookie sensation is set to go up against a defense that ranks fifth in the NFL with the fewest points allowed, at 15.2 and rank in the top 5/10 in a bunch of other categories.
While Stroud is well ahead of schedule in his development, it won’t look that way against the Saints, who have made every QB that they have played against this season look below average (with the exception of Baker Mayfield).
One more thing to note: the Saints defense has only allowed one team to score north of 20 points this season, which means that Texans fans and players alike are going to be in for a really long Sunday.
Fade Stroud this week, but don’t expect to see him in this column a lot moving forward.
Zack Moss has been on a TEAR ever since entering the lineup in Week 2, but will that continue the more Jonathan Taylor gets acclimated with each passing day?
Not to mention, while the Jaguars defense hasn’t been a world-beater this season, they do rank fifth in the NFL with the fewest rushing yards allowed per game, at 81.6.
While Moss has surprised us with his contributions in the pass game, expect Taylor to soak up some of those targets as he’s an underrated pass catcher in his own right.
At RB11, that’s too high of a cost for a guy who's expected to split more of the workload with his backfield mate.
Moss can still have a solid fantasy day, but finishing as a borderline RB1 play?
I don’t see it.
Statistically speaking, the Seahawks defense against the pass hasn’t been pretty this season.
However, once you sprinkle in a little bit of context, you begin to understand why the pass defense statistics look as bad as they do.
Now, by no means am I arguing that the Seahawks secondary is elite, but they have yet to operate any game this season at full health. Against Cincinnati, the secondary will be the healthiest it's been all season long with safety Jamal Adams and CB Tre Brown both set to make their returns from concussions.
Not only that, but reports are that Higgins could be dealing with his rib injury for the rest of the season, which could mean that Cincinnati could look to lessen his workload just a little bit (remember, he’s looking to get PAID so I have a hard time believing that’ll he jeopardize his ability to do just that throughout the course of this season).
In what could be a potential shootout for the Seahawks, you are taking a risk with fading Higgins here. At the same time, he’s a game-time decision himself so there’s a chance he doesn’t even play. As we’ve seen in the past, Higgins has been active for games in which he barely even saw the field, which could also play a factor here in Week 6.
Given all of that uncertainty, you’re better off starting someone else at WR this week.
As tough as it is to fade a player who just scored nearly 30 points in fantasy last week (on three receptions, mind you), we operate off of logic and not emotions here in this column.
That 27.7 point-performance aside, George Kittle only has one other double-digit performance in fantasy this season, and that came against a horrid Giants defense.
On the season (out of 5 games played so far), Kittle has three games with four or less targets and three games with 30 or less receiving yards.
That’s just the reality of the team that he plays for, which is in no way a knock on Kittle at all.
The 30-year-old is one of the very best the NFL has to offer at TE, but he’s one of those guys who’s a much better REAL-LIFE player than he is a fantasy player. He’ll have his weeks (he just did last week after all) but given the dearth of options in San Francisco’s arsenal on top of their propensity to run the football and keep him in-line, he’s not a set-it and forget-it starter at TE like his real-life status might suggest.
As for the cherry on top, the Cleveland Browns defense is a top 10 unit as far as least number of points allowed to TE’s, and weather could also potentially impact each team’s ability to move the football down the field via the pass. That said, Kittle is an easy fade for me this week.
To add insult to injury, Jerome Ford’s Browns will now be operating WITHOUT starting QB Deshaun Watson, who was just recently ruled out vs the 49ers.
That alone already makes a middling offense that much more difficult to trust when it comes to being able to move the football against one of the most formidable (if not the most formidable) defense in the National Football League in the San Francisco 49ers.
While potentially inclement weather on Sunday in Cleveland could mean more opportunities for Ford to run the football, a negative game script is more likely to dampen his statistical output more than anything.
And do we trust P.J. Walker to take command and operate Kevin Stefanski’s offense?
There are plenty of RB’s OUTSIDE of the top 20 (at cost) that would make more compelling plays in DFS, such as James Cook (RB22) - who I outlined as a bargain in my Week 6 ‘Bargain Bin’ column.
Be sure to check out our website at sportstopia.io for that article as well as all of our other articles from all of our analysts!
Longtime scout and DFS expert breaks down TNF
Intro: I watch every NFL game live, then watch it again on tape for scouting Fantasy/DFS and future betting (player props) purposes. And like a restaurant or movie ‘critic’, I’m here to report my critiques of this nationally televised game -- pro and con.
Let’s take a look at what I witnessed, the good and the bad, in the Broncos-Chiefs game on Thursday night.
Always a worst when you don’t win the top prize.
It’s been two straight TNFs without winning for the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, after winning a share of top prize in back-to-back weeks. It felt like it was getting easy, so now it’s frustrating when we aren’t treating DraftKings like a personal ATM machine weekly.
But the Optimizer will be back at DFS prize fighting all day Sunday and then for MNF. The million-dollar first-prize chase never sleeps!
I was so excited to watch this game for the Fantasy impact. I have plenty of shares in Isiah Pacheco, Patrick Mahomes andTravis Kelce in every Fantasy format there is – Redraft, Dynasty, Best Ball. I got my parmesan garlic flavored popcorn and a tall Sprite Zero and settled in to watch a ton of KC offense ... and a ton of Travis Kelce commercials!
13-0 at the half? 19-8 final? Harrison Butker was nearly the top scoring Fantasy ‘thing’ in the game (that I have almost no FF shares in).
Dominant performance by the unit that has been the best for the Chiefs this season. You knew Denver had little chance to convert on any third down. So many times, the third-down plays were halted via a sack or flush of Russell Wilson out of the pocket. KC has held all six opponents this season to 20 or fewer offensive points.
Some of what made the KC defense look so good was Denver's ineptitude. Wilson looks totally checked out or overthinking. His O-Line is weak, his wide receivers are poor. Sean Payton is supposed to be an offensive guru?
A bonus BEST to Pete Carroll and John Schnieder for dumping Wilson at the perfect time for a heist from Denver, in retrospect.
The Chiefs have scored 20 or fewer points in half of their games. This passing attack looks out of sync has no weapons when Kelce is not involved. Denver has been getting run over by everyone, but not the Chiefs in this game. not by the Chiefs this game. Mahomes did throw for 300-plus yards, but you wouldn’t have guessed it from watching the game or the tape after -- several red zone failures and blown 3rd-down conversion attempts.
The Chiefs' offense has been a giant letdown. The countdown to the Chiefs trading for a WR by the trade deadline is on.
The Broncos will be selling their two starting WRs in the next few days or weeks -- and possibly one of them to KC since Denver faces the Chiefs one last time this season in Week 8. They could send Courtland Sutton over as a mercenary for the rest of 2023 and not worry about the whole intradivision trade taboo.
The problem with the Broncos' WR fire sale is, they're mediocre. Denver tried trading Jeudy-Sutton in the preseason, but no one cared.
Denver can keep them both and let them go to free agency in 2024 and get third-round compensatory picks. What team would give higher than a third-round pick?
Only a sucker would trade big for Jerry Jeudy and give him a deal extension, so watch out for the Panthers as buyers there.
Watching Swift react like she just saw a real-life unicorn appear whenever Kelce catches a simple pass made me wonder – I wish I had someone in my life cheering on me completing basic functions of my job.
My wife doesn’t even read my articles, not a one in decades of work. But Swift looks like parents watching their young child hit a game-winning home run in a youth baseball game whenever Kelce does anything.
We all could use a Taylor Swift in our lives, on so many levels. I don’t have that. The closest I get is I use a Swiftfer to clean my kitchen floor from time-to-time, at my wife’s request (demand). And she’s not cheering me on like a trained seal as I do it.
AT LEAST my bet of KC -10.5 came through with some late luck.
I thought for sure KC would run the clock out and win by eight when they approached their final drive and blow the cover making this game experience even more ‘nothing’ for me. I was praying KC wouldn’t convert their last third-down attempt from field goal range, and thus need to kick the three-pointer to go up by 11 and then hold Denver.
KC didn’t convert, but the cosmic twist was Mahomes got sacked to create a very long field-goal attempt, which Butker nailed.
See you next TNF for Jacksonville at New Orleans!
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