The NFL season is finally here, and I couldn’t be happier! Every single week, I’ll be placing an Underdog/PrizePicks entry and breaking down each prop with analysis and key stats that will help you make money. Additionally, I will be using the Sportstopia DFS optimizer to guide my research, which you can sign up for!
Tyreek Hill -- 6.5 Receptions
One of the first props that immediately jumped off the page to me was Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions. While deciding between yards and receptions can be tough for a high-end receiver like Hill, he led the league in WR catches behind the line of scrimmage last season, which gives him a safer floor than most.
Additionally, the Dolphins have the most consantrated offense in football, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle making up more or their teams receiving more production than any other combo in the league!
This Dolphins-Chargers matchup sets up to be one of the highest scoring on the slate, and what better way to take advantage than by betting on the most explosive player in the game. Hill went over this number in 10 games last season, and 8/13 games with Tua averaging 7.2 receptions and 10.5 targets. I think this high tempo setup gives us plenty of opportunities today.
If you’ve heard me talk about Tua this offseason, you’ve probably heard the term "regression" in the same sentence. While he was the best QB in the league throwing over the middle, teams caught on and started to sell out defending that part of the field.
Forcing Tua to throw more to the boundaries is where the mistakes started, and I expect defenses to be ready for that. When he saw Tua struggle more, who did he look into? His number one target Tyreek Hill.
One of the best ways to use these apps like PrizePicks is by comparing their lines to traditional sportsbooks. Nick Chubb is currently -160 to -190 on every major book to score, yet he’s available to place here on PrizePicks, which is rarely the case for a prop with those odds.
Additionally, they normally only offer "rushing TD" but this includes receiving and passing, which is a big deal considering Kareem Hunt is out of town and Chubb would potentially earn some additional receiving work.
Chubb is already one of the best backs in the league, running behind an elite offensive line. He has a great history against Cincinnati as well, recording 916 total yards and 8 TDs over the course of nine career games.
Kareem Hunt has always been a great red zone back, averaging 6 TDs per year over his last 6 seasons with the Browns, but he’s left town, and there is nobody left to replace him.
Brian Robinson -- 57.5 rush yards
My Washington Commanders are currently -7-point favorites, likely for the only time this season. This means that this is likely the best game-script possible for Robinson, going against the team that is likely to end the season with the number one overall pick in the draft.
This Cardinals defense was a mess last season, and got significantly worse on defense losing JJ Watt, Zach Allen, and Marcus Golden from their line. This Cardinals defense is one of the worst week 1 units I’ve seen in awhile, and I expect the Washington backs to take advantage early and often.
Robinson was 8-4 to the over last season, despite returning very quickly from a gunshot injury. He averaged 17 carries per game, slowly begun to improve in efficiency metrics as he got healthier deep into the season.
Now that he’s got a full offseason to prep, I expect Robinson to look much better then he did last season. I was not a fan of his game at first, but his volume is secure, and he’s looked better and better as he’s been given time to heal and improve.
This is a smash spot for the second year back, and I look forward to fading Arizona often this season.
Finally PrizePicks has a promo for Dak Prescott to throw for 1 passing yard. This a reminder that these apps are posting tons of great promotions, and it’s our job to make them regret it! Always be vigilant for discounts and deals when you’re winning on the margins!
- Tyreek Hill o6.5 Receptions
- Nick Chubb o0.5 Rush+Rec+Pass TD’s
- Brian Robinson o57.5 Rush Yards
- Dak 1+ Pass Yard (Promo)
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