Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) celebrates his home run against the New York Yankees with first baseman Triston Casas (36) on Sept. 12, 2023. (Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports)
Thursday provides an abbreviated MLB slate of games. Among them the Yankees and Red Sox will have another day-night doubleheader and the Rays and Orioles will battle it out for AL East dominance on FOX. With sportsbooks focused on sharp lines for Thursday Night Football, we’re jumping on some good numbers on PrizePicks and Underdog.
Merril Kelly, Diamondbacks RHP, 17.5 Pitching Out (Higher) – Underdog
This has been one of my favorite picks to turn to this season. They keep giving us 17.5 or lower on Kelly and we keep taking it. He has gone at least six innings in 17 of 25 starts since April. He has struggled a bit of late on the road against the Dodgers and Padres, but the Mets lineup has been terrible at Citi Field. They have the third-lowest batting average of any team at home this season at .234.
Mike Yastrzemski, Giants OF, 1.5 Total Bases (Higher) – Underdog
Yastrzemski has been on fire in September. He has MLB’s 10th-highest average at .387. He has solid numbers against Rockies starting pitcher Chase Anderson, going 3 for 7 with 2 doubles. Oddly, he’s yet to record a hit at Coors Field in his young career but I expect that to change tonight. Anderson has allowed an opponent batting average of .310 since joining the Rockies in May.
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles 3B, 1.5 Total Bases (More) -- PrizePicks
The rookie might be the difference-maker the Orioles need down the stretch to claim the AL East title. He has the fourth most total bases over the last two weeks and the sixth most over the past month.
But he has yet to face starter Aaron Civale, who has been decent since joining the Rays but has struggled in two starts in September with a 6.10 ERA. Henderson has at least two total bases in nine of 12 games in September.
This one is simple. Webb has been excellent this season for the Giants. He has had at least five strikeouts in 22 of 30 starts. The Rockies have the third most strikeouts of any team since the All-Star break. Webb has shut down this Rockies lineup throwing 20.1 innings with 17 K’s and to the tune of a 1.77 ERA.
The Pirates and Reynolds will square off with righty Josiah Gray of the Nationals. Reynolds is 3 for 5 in his career with a .667 wOBA versus Gray. He has a single in 11 of 12 games in the month of September. He sees the ball better in day games with a .282 average versus night where he hits .266.
Rafael Devers, Red Sox 3B, 1.5 Total Bases (Higher) – Underdog
Devers is that dude when he goes up against the Yankees. This season, he’s hitting .410 versus Yankee pitchers in 39 at-bats with 5 homers. He rakes during day games batting .307. He goes up against Michael King in Game 1 of today’s doubleheader. He’s 4 for 6 in his career against King with 2 homeruns. We can count on Devers to stay hot.
De'Von 'Double-Down' Achane, was out in full force during Week 4 with another dynamic performance and Top-5 fantasy finish, this time on just 11 touches. He totaled 233 yards and 4 touchdowns on 22 touches in Week 3, in what was looked at as a once in a lifetime game. He “doubled down” in Week 4 with 120 total yards and 2 touchdowns on just 11 touches.
A literal repeat performance on a per-touch basis. Going forward, it is going to be more and more difficult for Mike McDaniel and company to contain this freak of an athlete, but at just 185 pounds, they will need to utilize both Achane and Raheem Mostert to keep this efficiency flowing. Achane is a MUST-START and Top-10 option every week until further notice.
Only one running back have finished with 19.9+ fantasy points in both Week 1, 2, 3 and 4 -- Christian McCaffrey.
Alvin Kamara returned from suspension, and made up for missed time, pulling in a whopping 13 receptions on 13 targets. That places him 9th among running backs in receptions, just 6 behind the leader, Bijan Robinson. We hammered Kamara in the rankings last week, he finished exactly where we projected -- 9th.
This week the assumed return of Jonathan Taylor is held in high regard with how impressive Zack Moss has played in 2023. However, when comparing Moss’s stats to that of Taylors first 3 games in 2022, they are eerily similar.
Taylor had 5 less carries, but 6 more yards and 2 more receptions in the same span. The difference of course is this Colts offensive line has been healthy and returned to 2021 form. Taylor is a fringe RB1 this week, coming in at RB16 if he practices on Thursday and Friday.
The highest game total in Week 5 belongs to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs traveling to Minnesota to take on Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. In Week 3, we saw a high-powered AFC West team in the Chargers, go to Minnesota and take it down to the wire with a 28-24 finish. Cousins and Justin Herbert combined for 97 pass attempts.
While Patrick Mahomes has crested 40 pass attempts just once this season, Minnesota has been friendly to opposing quarterbacks, allowing 27 points per game in their three losses. Mahomes and Cousins are the only duo inside the Top 12 for Week 5, with Cousins averaging 46 pass attempts in the Vikings 3 losses.
The biggest differentiator this week is the consensus trust in Trevor Lawrence to double down and double up on a mediocre performance against Atlanta in Week 4. Consensus rankings have Lawrence has the QB10 this week, despite him finishing as QB 16,18 and 32 each of the last three weeks.
The Buffalo Bills are no easy task, despite Jacksonville having a one-week head start staying in Europe for the past two weeks. The Bills held Tua Tagovailoa to QB18 last week, and in a 37-3 dusting of Washington, they showed Sam Howell what was behind Door #2 and that was QB32 in Week 3, their second consecutive game holding a QB outside the Top 30.
All systems go for all the Game 2s of the 2023 Wild Card series. Should be fun.
Injury Report
Jake McCarthy, Arizona OF – McCarthy was removed from the roster before the start of the series because of an oblique injury. Because of the timing, he can't play in the NLDS if the Diamondbacks’ advance. Jace Peterson has taken McCarthy’s place but isn’t likely to see much playing time.
Luis Arraez, Miami 2B -- Arraez played one game over the final two weeks of the regular season because of an ankle sprain, but he was able to hit leadoff and go 1-for-4 in the Game 1 loss to the Phillies. Assuming he responds well, there’s no reason to think that the NL batting champion won’t be hitting at the top of the lineup again versus Philadelphia on Wednesday.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Zac Gallen @ MIL: $9,200
Freddy Peralta vs. ARI: $9,000
Zack Eflin vs. TEX: $8,800
Sonny Gray vs. TOR: $8,300
Aaron Nola vs. MIA: $8,000
Nathan Eovaldi @ TB: $7,800
Jose Berrios @ MIN: $7,600
Braxton Garrett @ PHI: $6,700
Gallen vs Peralta is a fun battle, on paper at least. Gallen hasn’t shown much consistency in the second half of the season, but the good has been very good; including two strong starts to end the season against the Yankees and Astros.
Gallen can lead the Diamondbacks to an upset series win if he can outduel Peralta, but the Brewers pitcher has been among the best hurlers since of start of August with a 79/11 K/BB ratio -- 33/1 in September -- over 56.2 innings and just three starts where he’s allowed more than two runs.
With Milwaukee needing the win to stay alive, he’d be the option I’d be rocking with between the two.
Sneaky option
Berrios vs. Twins
Berrios makes an awful lot of sense as an option for the Blue Jays to avoid being swept from a second straight Wild Card series. The right-hander will try to beat his former club, and while he did allow four runs in each of his last two starts, he struck out 16 in those outings, with 10 of them coming against the Yankees last Wednesday.
Garrett is the cheapest option on the slate, but I’d be going with Berrios if I’m using any of the cheaper options.
Stack Attack
Phillies vs. Marlins (Garrett)
C J.T. Realmuto: $4,800
2B Bryson Stott: $4,500
3B Alec Bohm: $4,400
OF Johan Rojas: $3,000
Garrett has been one of the more underrated solid options in 2023, so this has more to do with having trust in the Philadelphia lineup than anything against his ability.
He also has had much more success against left-handers (.600 OPS) than righties (.749), and while that could mean trouble for hitters like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, it could means big nights for right-handed bats Realmuto, Bohm and Rojas. Add Miami just doesn’t appear to be ready for the postseason action and I like the Phillies to close this series out.
Rays vs. Rangers (Eovaldi)
C Rene Pinto: $2,700
1B Yandy Diaz: $5,200
OF Randy Arozarena $5,400
OF Josh Lowe $4,500
Tampa Bay hasn't scored in their last 27 innings of postseason play, with the last run coming on a Jose Siri homer in the sixth inning of Game 1 of last year’s Wild Card game against the Guardians.
They’re due, right? On top of that, this has been one of the best teams in baseball at home all year, Eovaldi just hasn’t looked like a quality option since returning from injury, and the Texas bullpen has been among the worst over the past month.
Break out your broomsticks because we had a 3-0 sweep in last week’s article moving our season record to 6-3!
The ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ moved to 3-0 ATS this season with the Washington Commanders losing to the Philadelphia Eagles in overtime 34-31 as 9-point underdogs. New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr continued to play a week after an AC joint sprain and the offense could never get going as they lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-9 — covering the under 39.5 total points. Finally, the Tennessee Titans defense dominated the Cincinnati Bengals 27-3 as +2.5 underdogs.
In Week 5, here are the lines I am looking into:
‘Close Your Eyes Special’ – New Orleans Saints +1.5 @ New England Patriots
The Saints and the Patriots both met the ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ criteria -- underperforming the spread by 21 or more points in Week 4. The Saints, however, are the play here as an underdog. Everyone saw how rough the offense looked not scoring even a touchdown. But this week could be an easier matchup.
Realize this – the Patriots are really bad. They’re also significantly limited on defense with injuries to Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez — arguably their two best defenders. With another week of recovery and rehab for Carr, I expect to see this offense look a lot better in Alvin Kamara’s second game back this season.
‘Close Your Eyes Special’— Pittsburgh Steelers +4 vs Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers are back here in a familiar spot. They’ve been a ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ every other week. And once again, they are at home in a division game.
In preseason, this line was Ravens -1. After the Steelers’ lackluster start to the season the line jumped to Ravens -4. Mike Tomlin is 53-28-2 (65.4%) ATS as an underdog. He is also 16-5-3 (76.2%) ATS as a home underdog — including 2-0 ATS vs the Ravens as a home dog.
Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett suffered a bone bruise in the 30-6 loss to the Texans on Sunday, but he will practice this week and will be a game-time decision. After the start this offense has had this season, I don’t see much difference between Pickett and backup Mitchell Trubisky.
I think this will be another low scoring game in which the Steelers defense keeps them alive. The Ravens’ offense is going through a number of injuries that this defense will be able to exploit and create opportunities for the offense.
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos T: O43
This is going to be the Petty Bowl. In late July, new Broncos head coach Sean Payton referred to predecessor Nathaniel Hackett – now the Jets’ offensive coordinator – by saying the 2022 season “might have been one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL. That’s how bad it was.”
The Jets’ coaching staff and players rallied behind Hackett in response. Thus, I think this game is going to be an offensive explosion by both sides. Why? To be PETTYYYY.
There’s also the fact the Jets are 14th in opponent points per game (21) and the Broncos are last (37.5). Zach Wilson looked a lot better on Sunday Night Football and is growing in Hackett’s offense.
On the other hand, Russell Wilson has the Broncos’ offense 10th in scoring (25 ppg) despite the 1-4 record. Their defense has not done them any favors, so I am expecting to see a bunch points in this game.
Playoff baseball! It’s finally here. What a wild ride it’s been. The Wild Card round kicks off Tuesday with the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the Texas Rangers, followed by the Twins vs. Blue Jays. Meanwhile, the Brewers host the Diamondbacks in the National League, and finally, the Phillies will play the Marlins.
The Wild Card round are best-of-3-game series. So, we still have plenty of options on PrizePicks and Underdog and I’ve narrowed down the best picks to make here.
Tyler Glasnow 7.5 Strikeouts (More) – PrizePicks
Glasnow has been one of my favorite pitchers for years, and that’s coming from a Yankee fan. He hasn’t made a postseason start at Tropicana since 2020 and had at least 8 strikeouts in 3 of 5 playoff games there that year.
This season, Glasnow has finally been healthy. He’s exceeded this number in 60% of games pitched at home during the regular season. The Rangers have a dangerous lineup, but they are in the bottom half of MLB in strikeouts per game.
Yandy Diaz, Rays, 1B, 6.5 Fantasy Score (More) – PrizePicks
Yandy is Tampa’s most consistent hitter and is grossly underappreciated. He has the second-best batting average at home (.363), behind Luis Arraez (.376), and has a 1.015 OPS at Tropicana.
Diaz has been one of MLB’s hottest hitters since the All-Star break, and he will go up against lefty Jordan Montgomery. Yandy has the third-highest batting average (.355) against southpaws, and has surpassed this number in 6 of his last 8 games at the Trop.
Kevin Gausman 6.5 Strikeouts (Higher) – Underdog
The veteran righty went over this number in 61% of his starts this season, but his Ks fall off on the road compared to when he’s at Rogers Centre. The Twins have struck out more than any other team. In two starts vs the Twins, Gausman surpassed 6.5 Ks once.
I trust the team with the most strikeouts at home this season, during day games, and against right-handed pitching will continue into the postseason.
Jesus Luzardo 4 Hits Allowed (Higher) – Underdog
The lefty will take the mound for the Miami Marlins to open their series with the Phillies. He allowed more than 4 hits in over 60% of his starts in 2023. In his lone start at Citizens Bank Park, he allowed 8 hits. His home-road splits suggest fading him when he’s on away, as he’s allowed over a hit an inning on the road.
At home, Harper is batting .352 with a 1.081 OPS. He has awful numbers in 9 at-bats against Luzardo, but he has success against Miami relievers. Harper has exceeded this number in 8 of his last 12 home games that weren’t stopped short because of injury or ejection.
Last postseason, Harper turned things up and posted historic numbers. I expect him to do the same in 2023 with unfinished business for him and the Phillies.
Brandon Pfaadt 4 Hits Allowed (More) – PrizePicks
The Diamondbacks are in trouble, having to start the playoffs with Pfaadt on the mound. If they don’t put many runs on the board, the Brewers will make quick work of them in this series.
The 24-year-old righty allowed more than 4 hits in 13 of 19 appearances during the regular season, and don’t let his improved ERA down the stretch fool you. The Brewers don’t have the deepest or most intimidating lineup, but they’ve been seeing the ball well. They closed out the last month of the season with the 7th-best batting average in MLB.
We made it, folks. After a six-month grind to reach the postseason, fantasy managers will be treated to a quartet of intriguing playoff matchups as the AL and NL Wild Card Series get underway on Tuesday afternoon.
The schedule
Rangers at Rays, 3:08 p.m. ET
Blue Jays at Twins, 4;38 p.m. ET
Diamondbacks at Brewers, 7:08 p.m. ET
Marlins at Phillies, 8:08 p.m. ET
Weather Report
There's a batch of light-to-moderate rain passing through Minnesota this afternoon, which might be enough to trigger a late start or in-game delay. There's enough of a gap for the Blue Jays and Twins to get a game in before the heavy precipitation arrives later this evening. Still, this amplifies some of the risk for utilizing both Kevin Gausman and Pablo López.
Carlos Correa, Twins SS (plantar fasciitis) -- Correa has been on the shelf since mid-September following a plantar fasciitis flare-up in his left foot, but it sounds like he has a strong chance to be ready.
Jorge Polanco, Twins 2B (ankle) -- Polanco is expected to be ready after dealing with right ankle soreness in the final weekend of the regular season.
Royce Lewis, Twins 3B (hamstring) -- The Twins hope to bring Lewis back in a DH-only type role, but that decision is unlikely to be finalized until some point prior to first pitch.
Byron Buxton, Twins OF (hamstring) -- Buxton is the least likely to return, but he is making progress from a right hamstring strain and could be an option at some point.
Jose Siri, Rays OF (hand) -- Siri has progressed to taking live batting practice and could be an option Tuesday. He’s been out since mid-September with a fractured right hand.
Luke Raley, Rays OF (neck) -- Raley might be ready in time for the opener as he continues to recover from a neck strain that he suffered a couple weeks ago during a pregame collision during batting practice.
Luis Arraez, Marlins 2B (ankle) -- Arraez is expected to return after missing the final seven regular-season game with a left ankle injury. The central issue here is how effective he’ll be at the plate, especially if his ankle isn’t 100 percent. We’re unlikely to have any clarity until we see him in game action, so fantasy managers should proceed cautiously when considering him for Tuesday’s slate.
Trea Turner, Phillies SS (elbow) -- Turner sat out Sunday's regular-season finale with a minor elbow issue and is expected to be good to go.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Kevin Gausman (TOR) at MIN: $9,800
Tyler Glasnow (TB) vs. TEX: $9,300
Pablo López (MIN) vs. TOR: $9,100
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs. MIA: $8,600
Corbin Burnes (MIL) vs. ARI: $8,000
Jordan Montgomery (TEX) at TB: $7,100
Jesús Luzardo (MIA) at PHI: $6,800
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) at MIL: $5,300
Minnesota boasts a potent lineup, but they also led the majors in strikeouts, which makes it a tasty matchup for Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman, who led the American League with a whopping 237 strikeouts. If there's an obvious building block, it's Gausman.
Glasnow, López, Wheeler and Burnes also represent strong options Tuesday. The Diamondbacks, who posted a lackluster .672 OPS over the final month of the season, don’t look like a major obstacle for Burnes, who should get plenty of run support from Milwaukee's offense.
Sneaky Option
Jesús Luzardo, Marlins LHP, at Phillies: $6,800
If there’s a potential vulnerability for the Phillies, it’s that most of their biggest over-the-fence power threats are left-handed -- Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper being the most notable. The Phillies have been among the better teams against southpaws, but Luzardo offers enough strikeout potential to mitigate the risk of an implosion, and hasn't faced Philadelphia since July 9. The 26-year-old southpaw is coming off a 10-strikeout gem in his final regular-season start, and easily represents the most promising low-cost starting pitcher Tuesday.
Stack Attack
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks (RHP Brandon Pfaadt)
With Arizona forced to play until virtually the conclusion of the regular season to secure a spot in the postseason, they’re ostensibly forced to hand the ball to Brandon Pfaadt on Tuesday. The 24-year-old right-hander has pitched much better of late, allowing three earned runs or fewer in nine of his final 12 starts.
However, he's also surrendered a staggering 2.06 homers per-nine across 96 innings -- the sixth-worst mark of any pitcher with at least 90 innings. Combined with Milwaukee’s hitter-friendly American Family Field, Pfaadt is the obvious target for fantasy managers to stack against Tuesday.
It’s not hyperbolic to suggest that the Brewers most likely need to do some damage against Pfaadt if they’re going to win the series.
The purpose of the waiver wire changes this week. No longer are we just speculating for future weeks, replacing injured players in our lineup, or cutting the underperforming players from our draft. It’s Week 5, which means we’ve got four teams on bye and these waiver wire additions may be filling out your starting lineup immediately.
With the Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks on bye, fantasy managers will be left with quite a few holes in their roster for the first time this season. Let’s fill those holes together.
Wide Receivers
Michael Wilson (6% Rostered)
Since Week 2, Wilson’s usage has been on a steady rise in the Arizona offense, all culminating in his Week 4 breakout. Now seemingly ahead of Rondale Moore on the depth chart, Wilson could become a more consistent flex option.
His seven targets were by far the most he’s had, but Wilson is building rapport with quarterback Joshua Dobbs and we still don’t know when Kyler Murray will be back.
Don’t expect two touchdowns every week for Wilson but do expect a lot of pass-happy game scripts for a struggling Cardinals team.
Curtis Samuel (14% Rostered)
Despite being on the field for the majority of snaps, Week 4 was the first-time fantasy managers were happy starting Samuel. He turned his highest target total of the season (eight targets) into seven receptions for 71 yards. A PPR dream.
With a juicy matchup against Chicago, Samuel is the perfect bye week fill-in. Touchdowns haven’t gone his way yet, but Samuel is still a serviceable PPR option.
Tyler Boyd (51% Rostered)
I’m not sure there is a more quintessential bye week wide receiver than Boyd. Never one to blow the roof off but also never one to ruin your week, Boyd is the epitome of high-floor/low-upside.
The amount of time he spends on the field can hardly go up if Tee Higgins misses time, but he may see Burrow look his way more often. What’s more likely is that Ja’Marr Chase sees the benefit of Higgins' absence and Boyd continues his steady slot role.
If you’re looking for a safe (but not so exciting) flex play for bye weeks, Boyd can fill that role.
Jameson Williams (53% Rostered)
Williams’ suspension for gambling was reduced to four games, so he can return in Week 5. While it's unknown how his talent will translate to the NFL, the upside of a former first-round pick entering one of the more exciting offenses in the NFL is enough to warrant a pick-up.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is clearly the Lions' No. 1 WR, but there is room for Williams to emerge as the WR2 in this offense and a weekly fantasy starter. Pick him up before his first week back on the field, though hold off on starting him if possible.
Running Backs
Jaleel McLaughlin (2% Rostered)
Javonte Williams suffered a hip flexor injury and missed the second half of Sunday’s victory against the Chicago Bears. In his stead, Samaje Perine and McLaughlin split the running back duties.
Good news, bad news with this one. The good news is that Javonte Williams is not expected to miss much time. The bad news is that this means McLaughlin will likely have one week of startability and it comes against a tough Jets defense.
McLaughlin should be looked at as a bye week filler while we await the return of Williams, which should be sooner rather than later.
Ronnie Rivers (2% Rostered)
Kyren Williams has been one of the best waiver wire finds of the season, currently sitting as the No. 3 PPR RB. The Rams' rushing role has fantasy value and this week highlighted Rivers as a competent backup.
Rivers turned nine carries into 47 yards and added two receptions for 10 yards. Unlikely to be worth starting while Williams is healthy and starting, Rivers is worth adding as a backup if you have room.
Tyjae Spears (34% Rostered)
It was a disappointing week if you started Spears, but it’s disappointing every week if you have to start a clear backup running back. While hardly start-able given the Titans' preference for Derrick Henry (duh), the Titans have shown they really like the rookie and continue to get him involved.
I wouldn’t feel comfortable plugging Spears into my lineup unless it is an absolute emergency, but I would like to roster one of the league’s clearest backup running backs.
Tight Ends
Jake Ferguson (50% Rostered)
Tight end is gross, and volume alone is enough to make a player relevant. Ferguson has emerged as a favorite safety valve for Dak Prescott, with seven targets in three games this season including Sunday’s game against the Patriots.
Ferguson led all Cowboys in targets, receptions, and yards Sunday and turned in his third consecutive top-12 TE week. Ferguson’s PPR floor appears to be relatively safe and if he finds the end zone, a top-5 weekly finish is likely.
Jonnu Smith (2% Rostered)
A tight end led the Atlanta Falcons in receiving yards this weekend in London, and it wasn't Kyle Pitts. Seeing 6 or more targets in the last 3 games makes Smith a reluctant start at the position.
Upside is limited as the offense seems limited by Desmond Ridder. But while we await the emergence of Pitts, you can get a couple bye week or injury filler starts from Smith. Expect TE2 numbers and get excited if he turns his targets into more, like he did this past weekend.
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud (55% Rostered)
Stroud has finished as QB13 or better each of the last three weeks, even with his pass volume dipping due to positive game scripts against the Jaguars and the Steelers. With the emergence of Nico Collins and Tank Dell as viable threats for the rookie, Stroud can be relied on as a weekly starter and should get back to chucking the ball near 50 times a game as the Texans are in more negative game scripts.
Russell Wilson (53% Rostered)
While the Broncos look lost as a team, Wilson has put together multiple good games in a row including this week’s impressive three-touchdown game against a struggling Bears’ defense.
While you wouldn't start Wilson every week in one-quarterback leagues, he has shown he can be started in positive matchups. Week 5 is rough against a strong Jets defense, but you can pick him up now and then play the matchups.
Joshua Dobbs (9% Rostered)
Now that Dobbs’ jersey is available in the Cardinals team store, start taking him seriously as a fantasy option. He' been start-able the last three weeks, including two top-8 finishes. These weren’t against nobody defenses. Dobbs got it done against the Giants, Cowboys and 49ers.
The Cards' offense continues to find a way when many counted them out to start the year. With Kyler Murray having no clear timetable for return, fantasy managers can pick up Dobbs as a serviceable QB for the foreseeable future. The Week 5 matchup against the Bengals also makes Dobbs an excellent bye week replacement QB.
An optimizer is a powerful tool to harness in DFS, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. But one must first learn how to wield an optimizer before its true power can be realized. That is what we will sort through in this weekly series.
We’ll focus on Contrarian Edge Optimizer use at Fantasy Sports Logic for each Monday Night Football to explore the tool, maximize expected value through optimal utilization and provide a sneak peek into the newest and most dynamic optimizer in the industry.
First Look
We’ll start our process for Giants-Seahawks in Week 4 by running the Contrarian Edge Optimizer without manipulating any functions. The optimizer returns a showdown roster of the Giants' Daniel Jones (captain) and Wan’Dale Robinson, and the Seahawks' D.K. Metcalf, Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
DFS Theory
Then we explore underlying metrics and DFS Theory to guide the roster-building process. Seattle has historically held elevated rush rates in the green zone (within 10 yards of the end zone). Lead back Kenneth Walker now has nine such opportunities through three games, four of which he has converted to touchdowns.
Since touchdowns are extremely important to DFS output, and even more so in a Showdown format, capturing the touchdowns in a single-game format becomes increasingly important. In other words, Walker’s robust green zone role makes his chances of scoring a touchdown increasingly likely, which should boost our inputs into the algorithm.
VIDEO: Daryl Snyder and R.C. Fischer preview Seahawks-Giants. Find out which top players they are paying up for and who they're targeting as value plays. These two DFS experts will make a run at the DraftKings Millionaire Maker Tournament! (Story continues below the video)
On the other side, Seattle’s struggles in the red zone through three games should not be understated. The Seahawks are the only team in the league to allow a touchdown on every opponent red zone possession this season.
That bodes well for the touchdown expectation of a Giants team that has performed well in the red zone. Their 62.5 percent red zone TD rate ranks eighth. With Saquon Barkley listed as doubtful, the chances that those touchdowns flow through quarterback Daniel Jones are elite.
The books agree. Kenneth Walker and Daniel Jones carry the shortest odds to score a touchdown. This makes the inclusion of each player a solid starting point for the optimizer.
Low-Priced Touchdown Possibilities
Touchdowns become even more important the lower we get in the salary totem pole. The optimizer loves Wan’Dale Robinson on this slate, and for good reason. He returned to the active roster in Week 3 for the first time since tearing his ACL in 2022. In that game, he played only 11 offensive snaps but saw five targets, good for a ridiculous 55.6 percent targets per route run rate.
Furthermore, his snaps came at the direct expense of Parris Campbell out of the slot. As such, any roster with Robinson should exclude Campbell in the event we see Robinson’s snap rate increase. Robinson is priced at just $3,000 and makes an interesting salary-saving option.
On the other side, Noah Fant and Will Dissly are questionable. Dissly had an improving trend throughout the week after missing Week 3 due to a shoulder injury, whereas Fant popped on the injury report for the first time Saturday, listed as a “DNP” with a knee injury.
Either way, an absence from either would correlate directly to increased snaps for Colby Parkinson, who has been the lead tight end. He holds a low 18.8 percent targets per route run rate, but he has 1.81 yards per route run (fifth), 9.7 yards per target (second), and 14.5 yards per reception (first). Any increase in snap rate will boost his projections in this spot. At only $800, he makes for an excellent salary-saving option in Showdown.
Game Theory
Boosting the projections of Jones, Walker, Robinson, and Parkinson returns a roster of those four plus Metcalf and Geno -- a solid roster but one that is likely to be duplicated immensely. Simple acts like substituting Tyler Lockett for Metcalf or moving either Metcalf or Lockett into the Captain spot uses less combined salary and are interesting ways to differentiate. Robinson is also priced around the kickers, which makes an easy pivot across various rosters.
Finally, Metcalf and Lockett historically struggle to provide ceiling games in unison, making a rule of “either Metcalf or Lockett” a solid bet in this spot.
The regular season is over, and now we turn our eyes to something that can warm even the coldest of hearts: the MLB playoffs. All four Wild Card series – with best-of-3 formats -- begin Tuesday, and while there are clear favorites, there are always surprises. It’s unlikely 2023 will be an exception.
American League
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
DraftKings odds: Twins -125, Blue Jays +105
Regular season head to head: Twins 3, Blue Jays 3
Minnesota was unchallenged in the second half of the AL Central, and that has as much to do with how atrocious the division was -- if not more so -- than how well the Twins played.
That said, Minnesota has one of the more intriguing lineups, ranking 10th in runs scored and seventh in slugging percentage despite hitting just .243 over their 162 games.
The calling card is their starting pitching. No team had more quality starts (76), and hurlers like Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez and Kenta Maeda give the Twins quality and quantity in their rotation. The bullpen has more question marks, but arms like Jhoan Duran, Emilio Pagan and Griffin Jax give them a solid core.
Toronto’s strength is also the starting pitching, which is all the more impressive when you consider the disastrous season that Alek Manoah -- a legitimate Cy Young candidate in 2022 -- “achieved” this summer. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios were all strong options for the Blue Jays in their respective campaigns, and southpaws Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun Jin Ryu gave Toronto solid depth in the backend.
Like Minnesota, the bullpen isn’t as strong as the starting five, but Jordan Romano remains one of the better closers in baseball while set-up arms like Erik Swanson, Yimi Garcia, and Tim Mayza are capable enough to get the ball to Romano in the ninth.
Despite big names in their lineup, the Toronto offense has disappointed. Bo Bichette had a.306/.339/.475 slash line, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Matt Chapman and Alejandro Kirk didn’t live up to expectations. The talent in the lineup is apparent based on their success in previous seasons, but Toronto was tied for 14th in runs and was carried by their pitching to win the final Wild Card spot.
Prediction: It’s understandable why the Twins are favorites. They have home field advantage, more depth and maybe extra motivation after last year’s quick exit. This should be a good one, but I’ll go Blue Jays in 3.
Rays vs. Rangers
DraftKings odds: Rays -155, Rangers +130
Regular season results: Rangers 4, Rays 2
Few offenses have been better than the Rays’, as they ranked fourth in runs scored (860), on-base percentage (.331) and slugging percentage (.445). Tampa Bay is famous for their platoon splits that frustrate fantasy managers, but Yandy Diaz won the batting title at .330 with a .933 OPS. Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Josh Lowe and Harold Ramirez -- just to name a few -- all had quality campaigns.
The Rays’ pitching is pretty darn good, too, even with season-ending injuries to pitchers Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen -- arms that would pitch at the top of many rotations. Zack Eflin was one of the best signings of the winter, while Tyler Glasnow returned from injury to strike out 162 hitters over 120 innings.
As usual, the Rays also have one of the best bullpens -- although the team did lose Jason Adam to injury recently -- with hurlers like Pete Fairbanks, Colin Poche and Robert Stephenson leading a deep group.
The Texas Rangers might have the best middle infield in baseball, with Marcus Semien and Corey Seager putting up star performances and more than living up to their lavish contracts. There’s plenty of offensive depth here beyond those stars, with Adolis Garcia mashing 39 homers, Josh Jung enjoying a strong rookie campaign with 23 round-trippers and a solid .781 OPS, and the recent addition of top prospect Evan Carter to the lineup (.306/.413/.645 in 62 at-bats).
The pitching doesn’t compare to the offensive talent, and starters Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Jon Gray were injured, but Scherzer and Gray could pitch in the postseason if Texas advances past this round.
Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery are no slouches, but the loss of those arms on top of a bullpen that has scuffled mightily over the past month-plus makes this the weakest pitching staff still playing in the American League. If this leads to a pair of 1-0 wins for Texas over the week, I can only apologize.
Prediction: Tampa Bay will get at least two games at home, and no team in the American League was better in their own confines -- 53-28 at Tropicana Field. The Rangers were mediocre on the road (40-41), and the mediocre pitching staff doesn’t inspire confidence. As much as I love the Texas lineup, the home field advantage along with the pitching problems seems too tough to overcome. Rays in 3.
National League
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
DraftKings odds: Brewers -170, Diamondbacks +145
Regular season results: Diamondbacks 4, Brewers 2
Milwaukee spent 122 days in first place and played .600 baseball in the second half of the season. The Brew Crew led MLB in ERA (3.71) and batting average against (.226), and ranked second in WHIP (1.19). Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta gives the Brewers as good of a postseason rotation as there is, and Milwaukee can also turn to reliable southpaw Wade Miley if/when they’re able to advance to the NLDS.
Devin Williams is more than capable of closing, with 36 saves and a 1.53 ERA over 61 appearances. Uber-talented rookie Abner Uribe and pen mates Joel Payamps, Bryse Wilson and Hoby Milner give the Brewers a great chance of holding leads.
But can Milwaukee score enough in October? The Brewers ranked 17th in runs scored with a paltry .240 average and .385 slugging percentage, among the worst in the National League. William Contreras and Christian Yelich had strong seasons and there are talented young players like Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick in the outfield. Milwaukee will have to pitch its way through the postseason.
The Diamondbacks backed their way into the final playoff spot – losing the final four games of the regular season – but they deserve credit for reaching the postseason just two years after losing 110 games.
It’s a team sport, but Arizona owes much of its success to star rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll and his 25 homers, 54 stolen bases and 5.4 WAR. Arizona has other thumpers as well. Christian Walker had 33 HRs and an .830 OPS, Ketel Marte rebounding from his disappointing 2022 with 25 homers and an .844 OPS and Lourdes Gurriel drove in 82 runs while going deep 24 times in his first year with the D-Backs.
Arizona and Milwaukee match up evenly in terms of the lineup, but pitching is a mismatch. The Diamondbacks will have ace Zac Gallen on regular rest for Game 2 with Merrill Kelly another solid option for Game 3 if necessary, but the rest of the staff leaves a lot to be desired. The deadline addition of Paul Sewald did help solidify the closing role, but the rest of the bullpen has major question marks. There’s a reason Arizona ranked at or near the bottom third in baseball in ERA (4.48), WHIP (1.32) and batting average against (.251).
Prediction: Weird things happen in the postseason, but both NL series seem like mismatches. I can see Gallen perhaps stealing a game for the D-Backs, but the Milwaukee pitching staff is too good to pick against in this one, with all due respect to a very talented young baseball team. Brewers in 2.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
DraftKings odds: Phillies -170, Marlins +155
Regular season results: Marlins 7, Phillies 6
How they got here: The Phillies never challenged for the division title, but that has more to do with how well Atlanta played than anything Philadelphia “did wrong.” After missing the first month-plus of the season, Bryce Harper was excellent with a .900 OPS while adding 21 homers despite getting just 457 at-bats.
Trea Turner scuffled to begin his first season with the defending NL champs but rebounded late to put up 26 round-trippers and steal 30 bases.
Kyle Schwarber proved batting average didn’t matter as he went deep 47 times with a solid .347 on-base percentage despite just a .197 batting mark.
Bryson Stott led Philadelphia in WAR at 4.4 with excellent defense at second base along with 15 homers and 31 stolen bases.
The Phillies have the most complete lineup on the National League side of the Wild Card series. The pitching isn’t bad, either, but does offer a few more question marks.
Zack Wheeler had another solid campaign, and Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez were good enough, even with Aaron Nola having his worst season. The bullpen also is in better shape for October, with the return of Jose Alvarado from injury providing a major boon, and a bounceback season from Craig Kimbrel helping solidify the final innings.
No one projected the Marlins to be a postseason team, and while there’s no denying Miami took advantage of the lack of competitors outside of the “big four” along with some luck, it’s still a fun story.
The Fish went 31-11 in one-run games despite a bullpen ERA of 4.37 that ranked 11th in the National League, but there is talent in the relief corps with arms like Tanner Scott, AJ Puk and deadline-add David Robertson capable of getting the job done.
It’s the starting pitching, however, that gives Miami a shot. Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett showed why they were once considered top prospects, and while Eury Perez struggled to end the year, the 20-year-old also showed immense promise with an arsenal that can give hitters fits in October.
The Marlins ranked fourth in batting average, but that figure is carried by Luis Arraez, who hit .354 after joining Miami in an offseason deal with the Twins. Jake Burger also has been excellent after being acquired in a deadline deal with the White Sox, and Josh Bell was solid in his time with the Marlins after basically being sold to Miami from Cleveland.
All that said, this is easily the worst lineup that will be playing in October, as the Marlins ranked 26th in runs scored this season with just 668.
Prediction: Again, weird things happen in October, but on paper, this is a mismatch. Not only are the Phillies the better roster, but they’re also a team that has postseason experience that reached the World Series just last year. It’s impossible for me to say anything but Phillies in 2, but crazier things have happened.
There was a time in my life as a kid when I wanted nothing to do with playing football. I didn’t want to play flag or tackle. Just didn’t want to do that. At some point I came to my senses and became obsessed, but during that time my dad had a saying: “give it two weeks.” He’d tell me to participate in football for two weeks and see if I still didn’t like it. And then when two weeks came and went and I still didn’t want to do it, my Dad would then say to me “give it another two weeks.”
That’s how you get a bratty kid to do things. In fantasy terms, we’re at the “another two weeks” point. A month into the season and it’s time to elevate the fantasy studs and maybe cut bait with (at least some) of the duds. And with that, let’s recap Week 4!
10 Studs
Christian McCaffrey: 177 total yds. 4 TDs
A.J. Brown: 175 yds. 2 TDs
Josh Allen: 320 yds. 5 total TDs
Stefon Diggs: 120 yds. 2 3 TDs
Kyren Williams: 127 total yds. 2 TDs
Justin Fields: 335 pass yds. 4 TDs
Mark Andrews: 80 yds. 2 TDs
Josh Jacobs: 139 total yds. 1 TD
Michael Wilson: 76 yds. 2 TDs
Jonnu Smith: 95 yds. BUT STILL BETTER THAN KYLE PITTS
Honorable Mention -- Zach Wilson, 245 yds. 2 TDs. But this doesn’t absolve him from the careerlong streak of being mediocre.
It’s news to literally no one that CMC is a stud. Four touchdowns could have been five if Brock Purdy didn’t sneak in for one. Hand up: I was “cautious” when he got traded to the 49ers because of his injury history. Hand up: I’m dumb. He leads the league in rushing and could run away with it.
It’s good to see A.J. Brown build on the success of last week’s 131 scoreless yard performance with a monster day. The Eagles needed every bit of it in a shootout with the Commanders (good for you if you predicted that one) and it looks like any “give me the damn ball” problems there may have been in Philly have been worked out. Brown has 27 targets in the last two weeks compared to DeVonta Smith’s 14.
This was the Josh Allen you drafted. This was the guy you pictured when some league mates told you it was a reach to grab him in the 2nd round. His perfect passer rating and five touchdowns helped knock out the Dolphins. And he did it by going to his number 1 Stefon Diggs.
Stefon Diggs certainly hasn’t disappointed fantasy owners, but he hadn’t found the endzone in the previous two weeks. That changed Sunday with his three scores and the duo put to bed any doubts about Buffalo’s offense.
I think we can confidently say Kyren Williams is good. Granted, the Colts defense isn’t a brick wall, but he’s been showing versatility week after week. Against Indy it was on the ground, but he can get it done through the air, too. I’m high on Williams keeping it going with the return of Cooper Kupp on the horizon and the prospect of the offense being even better.
When in doubt, start offensive players against the Broncos. I guess that’s where we’re at now? Justin Fields’ 4-touchdown performance is either smoke and mirrors or the start of something beautiful. Cole Kmet had 2 touchdowns. The DJ Moore rollercoaster provided a thrill with 131 yards and a score. Khalil Herbert had more than 100 on the ground and a receiving touchdown.
Despite all of this, the Bears still lost. The Broncos did just enough by spreading it around. Unfortunately, Chicago doesn’t get to play Denver every week so let’s pump the brakes on a Midway revival.
The Ravens needed this Mark Andrews badly. His five targets led the depleted Baltimore receivers. His two touchdowns reminded us he’s still Lamar Jackson’s redzone go-to. Again, the Ravens need this and would be crazy to go away from it in the weeks ahead.
Is it fair to say the Las Vegas Raiders are a mess? I think it’s more than fair. Hell, that might even be an undersell. But it’s always darkest just before the dawn, as they say. Unfortunately for the Raiders, this is like that six-month period of time in Alaska where it’s 24-hour darkness.
That doesn’t mean there can’t be bright spots, though! Welcome back to the fold, Josh Jacobs. Fantasy owners likely expected more through four weeks, but you could argue Week 4 of last season is when Jacobs got it rolling on his way to a rushing title. This year’s Week 4 was better than that one so let’s hope he can keep it going.
Michael Wilson is a household name. I am very confident there are multiple Michael Wilson’s in houses all around the world. I will forgive you, though, if you didn’t have *the* Michael Wilson rostered on your fantasy squad, but maybe you should. His two scores built on a good Week 3, but more importantly he has overtaken Rondale Moore in Arizona and is a threat to be a top-2 or -3 option weekly in the Cardinals offense. And let’s give it up for Josh Dobbs.
This weekly column isn’t always about the BIGGEST performances. Sometimes it’s about guys who you just flat out should consider rostering. That’s Jonnu Smith and his 95 yards as the Atlanta Falcons’ second (but really first) tight end.
Personally, I’m moving on from Kyle Pitts in non-dynasty formats. You can do it, too. Sure, he might have that *one* game where he makes you think about what could be, but you know it’s not reality. Smith has almost doubled up on Pitts in terms of fantasy points this season.
The Duds
Chris Olave can be a guy you build a gameplan around, but one catch for four yards on six targets is not how you do it. If Derek Carr was deemed healthy enough to be the starting quarterback, then I’m not going to blame his health on this.
I’m more worried about Alvin Kamara’s 14 targets on his return. That’s less run for Olave and the rest of the receiving corps. The offense has also only scored 20 points or more once.
I’ll throw Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert in here. I guess it’s hard not to have sky-high hopes after a 70-point game, but the Dolphins were brought back down to Earth. Hill had only 58 scoreless yards, but he’ll be fine.
Mostert is a tougher call. I called him MustStart, but tack on a couple of fumbles and De’Von Achane’s ascension … what do I call him now? The Miami offense (and your fantasy team) can still support both backs, but Achane wasn’t a fluke and that can only mean Mostert’s ceiling is limited.
Lastly, let’s go back to “give it two weeks … give it another two weeks.” I thought of that phrase when looking at the Cincinnati Bengals this season. Just give it a couple weeks! They’ll be fine! They are not fine. The game against the Tennessee Titans was supposed to be the “get right” game. They were coming off a win against the Los Angeles Rams and finally got Ja’Marr Chase involved, but nothing kept rolling.
Joe Burrow has flat out stunk, and the offense has scored three total touchdowns. Tee Higgins is hurt now. It’s been two weeks and another two weeks. They’re KILLING your fantasy team if you have virtually any Bengal.
Well, I’m gonna give it another two weeks because I refuse to believe they forgot how to play football. At least until the next poor performance.
.svg){kind=icon}
.svg){kind=icon}