We’ve made it to Sunday night! After an action-packed day, we cap off a wild weekend with an AFC battle. Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Las Vegas to take on Davante Adams and the Raiders for Sunday Night Football.
Game
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:20 pm ET
Betting Odds (DraftKings)
- Line: Raiders -2.5, Steelers +2.5
- Moneyline: Raiders (-142), Steelers (+120)
- Over/Under: 43
Team Ranks (2023)
Raiders
- Points for: 13.5 (30th)
- Points Allowed: 27.0 (25th)
Steelers
- Points For: 16.5 (26th)
- Points Allowed: 26.0 (23rd)
Key Injuries to Watch
Raiders
- DE Tyree Wilson (Illness) – Questionable
Steelers
- WR Gunner Olszewski (Concussion) – Out
It should be noted that Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers has been dealing with a concussion but has practiced fully, which is a good sign he will be cleared to play on Sunday night. The other major injury note is the Steelers defensive line will be without standout defensive tackle Cam Heyward for about two months, leaving a massive hole up the middle in their defense.
Captain Prices (DraftKings)
- Davante Adams, WR $17,400
- Josh Jacobs, RB, $16,200
- Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, $15,300
- Kenny Pickett, QB, $14,700
- George Pickens, WR, $13,800
- Najee Harris, RB, $13,200
- Jakobi Meyers, WR, $12,900
Flex Prices (DraftKings)
- Davante Adams, WR $11,600
- Josh Jacobs, RB, $10,800
- Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, $10,200
- Kenny Pickett, QB, $9,800
- George Pickens, WR, $9,200
- Najee Harris, RB, $8,800
- Jakobi Meyers, WR, $8,600
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Davante Adams is projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate over at DraftKings. Adams is the highest projected owned overall in over 55 percent of lineups, including the flex. There are not many surprises expected when it comes to ownership for Showdown lineups.
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Typically, a quarterback will be the most expensive option, but sometimes, when Davante Adams is on the field, he gets the nod as the priciest option. The Steelers defense has allowed the 11th-most yards to receivers through the first two weeks. Adams is a target and touchdown scoring machine. Slot receiver Jakobi Meyers should return to the field after missing Week 2, and this will only benefit Adams.
The quarterback battle between veteran Jimmy Garoppolo and second-year man Kenny Pickett is intriguing. Jimmy G will make his first start at home as a member of the Raiders. Pickett has struggled in his first two starts, but he’s faced arguably two top-five defenses. On paper, the Raider defense should allow Pickett and the Steeler offense to get back on track.
The Steelers offense features two running backs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. It’s difficult to trust and assess which guy will have the greater impact on Sunday night. Warren appears to be more explosive, but his 47 snaps trails Harris (62 snaps). Warren is second on the Steelers in targets with 12.
There’s not much to note regarding the tight ends in this one as the Steelers are a top defense defending tight ends, and Pat Freiermuth is off to a slow start this season. His target share has gone from 18% last season down to just 7% through the first two weeks of the season.
Strong Captain Option
George Pickens, Steelers WR, $13,800 - Captain Slot
Pickens has a chance to go bonkers. The Raider defense has allowed a league-high completion rate and the second-highest passing touchdown rate. The Raiders have also allowed a league-high 84% catch rate to wide receivers.
The second-year wide receiver led Pittsburgh with a massive 34.5% target share in the Week 2 win and scored a long touchdown. At 6-foot-3, he has the catch radius that quarterbacks love throwing to. Pickett recently said, “I’m going to put in in his zip code, and he’ll do the rest. That’s kind of been the MO here since I’ve started, so he’s an unbelievable player. Just continue to put the ball, throw it his way, and let him do the rest.”
The Pickett-to-Pickens connection will be on full display Sunday night. If the Raiders choose to double him with safety help, the next two receiving options will play a major role. My favorite and the Contrarian Edge Optimizer’s favorite of the next is Allen Robinson.
Cheaper Options
Allen Robinson $5,000
With Diontae Johnson out for at least two more weeks, Robinson will continue to see increased work. As WR3 coming into the season, he has been thrust into a full-time role.
Pickens is the truth and future, but the veteran Robinson actually played the most snaps of any Steeler skill position player in Week 2. He had a poor game, but that’s mostly due to the Browns strength in the secondary. In Week 1, he reeled in 5 of 8 targets for 64 yards.
We can expect similar production this week, and if he somehow finds the endzone, it will be even sweeter.
Calvin Austin $4,200
Austin is in a similar boat as Robinson. It’s likely Pickens will lead the Steelers in receiving Sunday night, but one of these two will also play a major role. Austin played 6 fewer snaps than Robinson and 5 fewer than Pickens last week. Expect similar snap counts for the trio and at least two of these guys to produce respectable numbers, with a chance of one leading the scoring.
Prediction
Both teams are 1-1. It’s surprising to see the Raiders favored, as many had the Steelers as a playoff contender in the AFC. Both offenses have struggled, but they have faced tough defenses. Each side has playmakers, and both defenses have struggled. This should be a big night for Josh Jacobs against a bad Pittsburgh run defense, but in the end, I expect Kenny Pickett and George Pickens to connect on big plays that will be enough to squeak out a win.
Final Score: Steelers 24, Raiders 23