Intro: I watch the TNF games (and every NFL game) live, then watch it again on tape for scouting Fantasy/DFS and future betting (player props) purposes. And like a restaurant or movie ‘critic’, I’m here to report my critiques of this nationally televised game -- pro and con.
My name is R.C. Fischer, and I am a decade+ long football scout and Fantasy writer/player (and bettor) of football things...and I watch football games for a living. I am a fan of no NFL team … except the one that I may have bet on that particular game. I review/study game tape for personal profit (or loss) in DFS and handicapping/props.
Let’s take a look at what I witnessed, the good and the bad, in this game on my every Friday series on Sportstopia critiquing the ‘Best and the Worst’ of the Thursday Night Football game.
Here is the BEST and WORST of TNF Week 4, Lions at Packers.
BEST: What’s Better Than Winning One Milly Maker DFS Contest on DraftKIngs?
Last week, Week 3, FSL’s Optimizer WON the TNF DraftKings DFS Milly Maker...a MILLION DOLLARS...split with 125 other people. I was just impressed that I was some kind of part of the data and strategy that won a million-dollar contest already with this new Optimizer software.
- Cody's Rankings: WR | RB | QB | TE-K-Def.
- Steezy's Fades: Get Off the Mike Evans Train Now
- Go with These TEs in Week 4 Pick 'Ems
- Week 4 Stacks: Go Chalk, Go Contrarian
- Bargain Bin: Burrow Is Ready to Show He's Back
- The Best and Worst from Lions-Packers
- Vegas Lines: In Ron You Should Trust
Daryl Snyder, FSL CEO, told me upfront when my company started partnering up with his – that he had a goal to win two Milly Makers...and he wanted to start accomplishing that goal by winning one to start. It was a joking statement/goal, but also, he was serious – and that’s what we’re in this for...is to prove the quality of the FSL Optimizer tool and the scouting/projections data provided. So, last week – we got his ‘one’.
Well, it didn’t take long to get Part II of the initial goal completed...because the very next week, this game Week 4 – win #2...two in-a-row. That’s insane – but it’s not pure luck. It’s the quality of the Optimizer tools, and the brains and balls of the man running the software for FSL (Mr. Snyder) converting the football info/scouting into action/strategy for the Optimizer’s line up setting, and it’s the scouting and projection data provided by firms like mine at Fantasy Football Metrics – all of it coming together like a beautiful symphony.
Back-to-back wins, this 2nd win/first prize title was only shared with 74 other people. So, a bigger slice for FSL.
WORST: Winning is Contagious...and Ups the Ante!
I just mentioned (above) that Daryl stated his goal was to win two DFS Milly Makers...that’s what he told me, but after the Week 3 win -- he wanted to clarify and change the goal to a modification of: he wants to win the actual million-dollar prize alone and not just share it!
Hey, I was told the goal was to win two Milly Makers...and we did...Mission Accomplished! Right?
Daryl is right...the goal has to be the solo win to really move the needle, move the company forward/higher. So, it’s one night to celebrate the improbable back-to-back wins...and then back to the coal mines to study more football to now win one of these things all alone for the seven-figure dream.
Football never sleeps. There’s always a next contest to conquer. The good news for FSL – we’re doing some kick-ass conquering.
BEST: The Detroit Lions Overall
On our TNF DFS preview podcast on Sportstopia Thursday, I spoke about how strong the Lions have looked on tape all season and that they had made their move to being one of the clear top 10 best executing, all-around teams in the league, heading toward trying to get into the top 5 best – they are that good.
With that as a lead-in the Lions went out and dominated in all facets right off the bat. Detroit led 27-3 at the half while holding Green Bay to just 21 yards total offense by the half.
It was a thorough beating handed out by the clear front runner for the NFC North.
Our prize-winning DFS strategy in this game was born from a belief that Detroit would most likely dominate the Packers and put the Pack into late-game catchup mode for passing numbers. And we pretty much called it in advance on the Sportstopia TNF podcast.
See/hear for yourself (article continues below):
Subscribe to the Sportstopia YouTube Channel to get notified of when the preview shows are released on gameday!
WORST: The Green Bay Packers in the 1st Half
Green Bay was a constant three-and-out in the 1st-half and looked like they might never complete a forward pass or run for positive yardage. It was 24-3 Detroit 16+ minutes into the game and the Packers were lucky it wasn’t worse than that. An awful display by the Packers.
BEST: The Green Bay Packers in the 2nd Half
Well, at least the Packers didn’t rollover like the Denver Broncos did last week at Miami. Green Bay actually closed the gap to 27-17 at the beginning of the 4th-quarter. The Packers fans got back into it, and it looked like we might have an exciting finish. We didn’t...but at least it kept the game interesting and gave Packers fans some hope (delusions) going forward.
WORST: No Exciting Finish
Quay Walker decided to try and (illegally) jump the O-Line to try and block a field goal, a field goal attempt that the Packers defense worked so hard to halt Detroit from scoring a touchdown so they could stay two scores away with some left to mount a legit comeback – but the Walker penalty erased the field goal and gave Detroit a fresh set of downs deep in the red zone, that wound up an eventual TD and provided the dagger to the Pack.
BEST: Winning the Game Bet...Early
DFS isn’t the only way to profit from the TNF game. Taking our scouting to project the game script, I bet on Detroit -2.0 for this game...and that got in the bag rather quickly, with no real risk that it would escape with late game shenanigans.
I like the bets where it’s not down to the wire praying for a kicker to miss a last second field goal or praying for a fumble or praying for an unusual lightning storm to come along and get the game canceled so that the bet would just be refunded. No, I got to enjoy this one without stress all the way through...pretty much...thanks to Quay Walker for relieving any of my possible stress.
WORST: I Lost the Game Bet Proceeds on a Props Bet
My BEST BET of this game...failed.
Keisean Mixon, slot cornerback for Green Bay – I took the OVER 3.5 tackles prop at (+120) in DraftKings on him this game.
When Mixon has played 65% or more of the snaps in a game, he has hit 4 or more tackles in a game five times in 6 those games where he played heavily...and this night he would be on Amon-Ra St. Brown quite a bit, so lots of throws/catches headed Mixon’s way expected, which elevates tackle count hopes. Well, Detroit blew Green Bay out so fast that the Lions throttled down the passing game and instead of his usual 7-8 catches, Amon-Ra ‘only’ had 5 catches here, one for a TD (so, no tackle count possible).
Mixon wound up with 2 total tackles officially...and one missed tackle I saw (because you watch these guys like a hawk when you got money on the line) where he smashed a receiver pretty hard but the ballcarrier kind of had their momentum pushed forward by the hit and then ran into the hands of someone else who got credit for the tackle.
These are the things that drive Prop bettors out of their minds. Actually, good thing he didn’t get that 3rd tackle in like the 3rd-quarter – because then he would have needed one more tackle to pay off and I would’ve watched the rest of the game in agony watching him NOT get anymore tackles.
BEST: Can’t Run on the Lions
The Lions run defense shut down the Falcons top run offense last week...22 carries for 44 yards. This game, they crushed the Packers run game to 12 carries and 27 yards total.
One of the main themes of the DFS preview podcast, and for setting lineups, accordingly, was talking about the Lions run D. Now, the world will be talking about it the next week/s. Good luck to Miles Sanders next week.
WORST: Luke Musgrave, Fantasy Week 4 Killjoy
I got into Luke Musgrave this week in some DFS lineups and in traditional head-to-head Fantasy leagues. Musgrave is a great rookie talent and had a really nice output last week/Week 3 with some opportunity left on the table due to a couple Jordan Love overthrows.
This night: One catch...one yard...out with a concussion before halftime, and as soon as he is gone the other TEs get 6 catches from then on in.
Fantasy is a wicked beast too often.
BEST: Brian Branch Miraculously Returns
Lions rookie Brian Branch looked like he had a bad leg injury in this game, and he got carted off the field...a huge loss for the Lions and felt bad for the young man.
Then, a little while later, we saw Branch on the sideline getting taped up and then back in the game. A thankful stroke of good fortune for Branch and the Lions. Happy to see that!
WORST: Brian Branch is Still Playing?
With the Lions way up late, Branch was still in the game and...and he got hurt again and had to be helped off the field. Did he really need to be out there late? Who is managing the personnel? We see this risk taken all the time in the regular season. Yet, in the preseason they try to put everyone in bubble wrap. Do better by your stars NFL coaches!
See you next week/TNF Week 5 (Chicago at Washington) ...where we go for an insane third Milly Maker 1st Place in a row. It’s impossible to do...but I said that about winning a 2nd in-a-row this week. So, what do I know?
-- R.C.
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