I watched this game live and took my usual live game scouting notes ... and like a restaurant or movie ‘critic’, I’m here to report my critiques -- pro and con.
My name is R.C. Fischer, and I am a decade-plus-long football scout and Fantasy writer/player (and bettor) of football things, and I watch football games for a living. I am a fan of no NFL team, except the one that I may have bet on that particular game. I review/study game tape for personal profit (or loss) in DFS and handicapping/props.
Let’s take a look at what I witnessed in this first of my Friday series on Sportstopia critiquing the ‘Best and the Worst’ of the Thursday Night Football game.
Quick BEST: TNF is back on Amazon! (NBC had it last week for some reason)
I watch/scout every regular season NFL game twice, live and during the week watching/studying the tape and the same for all the preseason games. And by far the best presentation of the football product is by Amazon.
Their pregame panel is far superior to any pregame panel in football right now.
I don’t like most TV analysts, but I really enjoy the understated, solid analysis of Kirk Herbstreit, as compared to NBC’s Cris Collinsworth laughing about everything every other play for no reason. And Fox’s Troy Aikman constantly claiming he ‘really likes’ and/or ‘has always liked’ and/or ‘this guy is going to have a big season’ on every player who just had a positive play in the game moments before. Al Michaels is a welcome Amazon game call sidekick as well.
The Next Gen viewing option by Amazon is excellent and the X-Ray Stats option for the right-hand side of your screen for real time Passing-Rushing-Receiving totals is a dream come true.
We need Amazon, Apple, and Google to buy everything related to the NFL and bring it into the modern era.
WORST: Are any Vikings offensive linemen healthy?
I wanted to bet small, for fun, on the Vikings and the points in this game but I was trying to figure out all day whether top OT Christian Darrisaw was going To play/be OK or not. Minnesota already was down their key starting center going into this. When Darrisaw was not listed inactive at the deadline for reporting, I went in on MIN +6.5 to join up with my earlier in the week bets on Minnesota +7.0.
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Once I placed my bet, 30 seconds later after the bet was processed, one of my guys on the ground at the game texted me that Darrisaw is still being worked out pregame and he’s a true game-time decision … and next I saw him was on the sidelines with no helmet on during the game. I thought my Vikings bet was a donation at that point.
In-game, when a Vikings starting offensive guard was taken off in a cart midgame, I knew I was doomed (as bettors like to wallow at the first sign of trouble) versus the Philly defensive front the rest of the game (thankfully, I was wrong).
The Vikings are now (0-2), and really should’ve won both of these games, but now they go into Week 3 with possibly 60% of their starting O-Line out...not good.
BEST: Do You Respect Kirk Cousins Yet?
Despite being down three offensive line starters, key ones too, Kirk Cousins threw for 364 yards, 4 TDs/0 INTs, and nearly led a comeback win despite four lost fumbles from his crew this game.
People discount Cousins because the media has told us over and over how mediocre (or worse) he is, but the guy is right in that tier of QBs below the ‘elite’ but above the ‘middle class’. He gets disrespected in Fantasy Football because of the media bias against him, but typically finds a way to be a top 10-12 Fantasy producer in any given season.
Cousins might end this week as the #1 QB in all of Fantasy after the first two weeks. He has thrown for back-to-back 340+ yard games and has 6 TD passes this season-to-date. And, again, this big output game came with 60% of his O-Line gone.
BEST: Are Any Eagles Healthy in the Secondary?
The Eagles came into this game without starting CB James Bradberry and top Safety Reed Blankenship, which helped Cousins go off...but then the Eagles also lost the very good slot CB Avonte Maddox in-game as well. Cousins is really good as it is, but he got a boost from the wounded secondary of Philly.
On the FSL podcast we shot/published earlier Thursday analyzing this game/DFS options and strategies, we discussed the impact of the wounded Eagles secondary and how that PLUS the Minnesota corrupted O-Line would force the Vikings away from the run and into a heavy passing effort -- we get a self-congratulating ‘best’ for calling this game script and subsequent huge Vikings pass game output for profitable Fantasy/DFS plays.
WORST: The Alexander Mattison Experience
It was easy to predict that Minnesota would be pushed away from any type of run game to the passing game due to the Philly D-Line strength and Vikings O-Line injuries, but also in part because Alexander Mattison is one of the worst starting RBs in the NFL right now. Super slow. Lost one fumble officially, lost another in the game that got bailed out by a lined-up-offsides penalty by the defense.
He later dropped a key pass in the hurry up offense comeback attempt...and during the 4th-quarter hurry ups he kept trying to get an extra yard by staying inbounds, when time was of the essence and he was right near the sidelines to ditch out and stop the clock, which was a must...but he didn’t seem to realize it, over and over.
Of all the things that cost Minnesota a win (a win they should have gotten) -- it was Mattison.
Minnesota did this to themselves when they paid Mattison to be ‘the guy’ this offseason. They have egg on their faces and likely won’t change/admit the error for a while, instead they’ll lean more into Mattison ahead to prove a point/save face. Whatever they do...he just cost them a win here, potentially.
BEST: D’Andre Swift Rises!
Last week, Swift played 19 snaps and had 1 carry and 1 catch. This week, 28 carries for 175 yards and 1 TD, and is now ‘the greatest running back in the history of the sport’,' which is what happens/the reaction when the media gets to watch a solo night game to get hysterical about.
I’m not a huge Swift fan (as a scout), but we talked about him on the DFS pregame TNF podcast, and I noted that he looked the best of the Eagles RBs in the preseason, so I assumed he would split with Boston Scott and whichever one of them got hot would take the backfield.
Scott looked good too, but got concussed, then Swift pulled away with the victory and was in many of our FSL DFS lineups for the TNF game over the more nationally coveted Mattison. That worked well.
WORST: Why Did the Eagles Start Kenneth Gainwell Week 1 Anyway?
As we were talking on the TNF preview podcast about the Eagles RB situation for TNF, I noted the positives about Swift from the preseason -- but I also mentioned how bad Gainwell looked in Week 1 and I questioned why Philly would start Gainwell so heavy and not bother to utilize some Swift and Scott (or Penny).
Well, it looks like Gainwell’s bell cow days are numbered, deservedly so. He’s not a three-down back, he’s a nice part of an RBBC.
WORST: With The #12 pick in the NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions Select Jahmyr Gibbs (insert applause)
So, let me understand this. You (the Lions) essentially give away Swift for nothing to the Eagles, a deal that was essentially a step above cutting him. OK, fine, but ...
Then you (the Lions) turn around and waste a precious #12 pick on another small/mid-sized, speedy satellite running back? Gibbs might never have an NFL game with as many yards as Swift just had here. You would hope and pray Gibbs would have a night like Swift just had, so why not just keep Swift and not waste a #12 pick on a similar thing when you could’ve drafted Christian Gonzalez, when you desperately needed CB help?
A huge, bad business decision by Detroit.
I know, I know. Gibbs is just starting out and we don’t know how good he is. He’s a magical unicorn rookie filled with sugar plum fairies dancing in football fans’ heads.
I know, Gibbs is so fast and is great in the passing game and is a playmaker. Where have I heard that before said about a player? Oh, yeah, I remember now. It was back a couple years ago from the media and fans when Detroit took D’Andre Swift to be that guy.
BEST: Minnesota’s Defensive Pass Rush
I was surprised by how well the Vikings defense pressured the Eagles pass game. They sacked Hurts 4 times this game and really had the Eagles pass game stymied for a while.
BEST/WORST: Minnesota’s Pressure Runs Out of Gas/the 2022 season Jalen Hurts Arrives...
In the 1st-half, I thought Hurts looked lost...playing at half speed and not in sync in the passing game. Which was an extension of looking off Week 1 against New England. At halftime of this game, I started to wonder if Hurts was going to be in for a down season or wondered if he was hurt in some way.
But then you could see as this game went, Hurts started getting in sync and throwing passes with more command. It took about six quarters of play to start the season for Hurts to shake the rust and to get into his NFL flow. Hopefully the same will be true for all the other big name QB flops from Week 1 that were flops likely due to these non-play/no touch of the QB preseason events they have to deal with.
I set myself a reminder, dated for summer 2024, to remind myself that Week 1 of NFL play is now a discombobulated mess and to assume the worst and bet all the underdogs because most teams are no longer prepared for the real games to begin. It will take 2-3 weeks for things to get up to speed for many offenses.
I did an analysis (on my home site Fantasy Football Metrics.com) of the change in Fantasy scoring by position from Week 1 of 2021 to a drop-off in Week 1 of 2022 to another (historic) drop in Week 1 of 2023. Everything is falling in Week 1s...except the DST scoring is rising, which makes sense given the drop everywhere else...especially at QB.
BEST: Betting This Game, In-Game, in Real Time with the Vikings + points...
So, when the Vikings went down 20-7 right after halftime, off that sack/fumble setting up a quick/easy Philly score -- I jumped on the in-game odds moving on DraftKings/FanDuel where the Vikings popped up to +14.5. With the Philly secondary injuries, and the way the Vikings were able to move the ball all game (just kept fumbling it away), I thought the Vikings were a ‘hope’ to make this a shootout and get the cover.
They did...that’s always a ‘best’.
WORST: Betting This Game, In-Game, in Real Time with the Vikings Straight Up to Comeback and Win
And at the same time I took the +14.5 and I also plunked one cool dollar on the moneyline for Minnesota to straight up win at +1,000 odds (while down 20-7 at that point).
When it got to 27-7, I thought all these in-game bets were quick donations -- but not-too-soon-after I was suddenly on the edge of my seat with some hope of a great +1,000 comeback by the Vikings. But it was not to be, almost but no dice, thus a ‘worst’.
BEST: The Backdoor Cover Rules!
Pregame, as mentioned previously, I had small bets on Minnesota at +7.0 earlier in the week and +6.5 just prior. I thought that was a donation too in the 3rd-quarter, but Minnesota scored a late TD on a drive that nearly gave me a heart attack due to drops, near-miss interceptions, a fumble/turnover saved by a defensive offsides penalty, etc. I was on the edge of my seat on every play -- you gotta love Fantasy and sports betting! Where else can you get such entertainment week-to-week?
Minnesota lost by 6, so I got my game bets covered -- barely. if only the Vikes coulda won and hooked me up with a nice present to start out my Week 2 betting.
That’s it for the Best and Worst of TNF Week 2. I’ll be analyzing the game, and every NFL game, from a purely Fantasy/Dynasty perspective over at Fantasy Football Metrics.com. daily.
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