An optimizer is a powerful tool to harness in DFS, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. But one must first learn how to wield an optimizer before its true power can be realized. That is what we will sort through in this weekly series.
We’ll focus on Contrarian Edge Optimizer use at Fantasy Sports Logic for each Monday Night Football to explore the tool, maximize expected value through optimal utilization and provide a sneak peek into the newest and most dynamic optimizer in the industry.
First Look
We’ll start our process for Giants-Seahawks in Week 4 by running the Contrarian Edge Optimizer without manipulating any functions. The optimizer returns a showdown roster of the Giants' Daniel Jones (captain) and Wan’Dale Robinson, and the Seahawks' D.K. Metcalf, Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
DFS Theory
Then we explore underlying metrics and DFS Theory to guide the roster-building process. Seattle has historically held elevated rush rates in the green zone (within 10 yards of the end zone). Lead back Kenneth Walker now has nine such opportunities through three games, four of which he has converted to touchdowns.
Since touchdowns are extremely important to DFS output, and even more so in a Showdown format, capturing the touchdowns in a single-game format becomes increasingly important. In other words, Walker’s robust green zone role makes his chances of scoring a touchdown increasingly likely, which should boost our inputs into the algorithm.
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On the other side, Seattle’s struggles in the red zone through three games should not be understated. The Seahawks are the only team in the league to allow a touchdown on every opponent red zone possession this season.
That bodes well for the touchdown expectation of a Giants team that has performed well in the red zone. Their 62.5 percent red zone TD rate ranks eighth. With Saquon Barkley listed as doubtful, the chances that those touchdowns flow through quarterback Daniel Jones are elite.
The books agree. Kenneth Walker and Daniel Jones carry the shortest odds to score a touchdown. This makes the inclusion of each player a solid starting point for the optimizer.
Low-Priced Touchdown Possibilities
Touchdowns become even more important the lower we get in the salary totem pole. The optimizer loves Wan’Dale Robinson on this slate, and for good reason. He returned to the active roster in Week 3 for the first time since tearing his ACL in 2022. In that game, he played only 11 offensive snaps but saw five targets, good for a ridiculous 55.6 percent targets per route run rate.
Furthermore, his snaps came at the direct expense of Parris Campbell out of the slot. As such, any roster with Robinson should exclude Campbell in the event we see Robinson’s snap rate increase. Robinson is priced at just $3,000 and makes an interesting salary-saving option.
On the other side, Noah Fant and Will Dissly are questionable. Dissly had an improving trend throughout the week after missing Week 3 due to a shoulder injury, whereas Fant popped on the injury report for the first time Saturday, listed as a “DNP” with a knee injury.
Either way, an absence from either would correlate directly to increased snaps for Colby Parkinson, who has been the lead tight end. He holds a low 18.8 percent targets per route run rate, but he has 1.81 yards per route run (fifth), 9.7 yards per target (second), and 14.5 yards per reception (first). Any increase in snap rate will boost his projections in this spot. At only $800, he makes for an excellent salary-saving option in Showdown.
Game Theory
Boosting the projections of Jones, Walker, Robinson, and Parkinson returns a roster of those four plus Metcalf and Geno -- a solid roster but one that is likely to be duplicated immensely. Simple acts like substituting Tyler Lockett for Metcalf or moving either Metcalf or Lockett into the Captain spot uses less combined salary and are interesting ways to differentiate. Robinson is also priced around the kickers, which makes an easy pivot across various rosters.
Finally, Metcalf and Lockett historically struggle to provide ceiling games in unison, making a rule of “either Metcalf or Lockett” a solid bet in this spot.
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