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Every year, fantasy managers scour through different sites to find THE breakout player that is going to win them their league. That guy in Round 4 who will provide top-five value, or the one you can select in the second half of the draft who will be a second-round producer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lauri Markkanen last season).

I can’t promise all these players will be league winners, but I’m confident they’ll raise their dynasty value quickly. For some, this is the lowest they’ll ever be valued, so if you want in, do it now. For others, they’ll start the season very well but may not be able to sustain it. That makes this a great time to buy in, since you should be able to flip them for better value later.

Tyrese Maxey 76ers

The situation is perfect for a Maxey breakout. James Harden refuses to play for the 76ers, but a trade has yet to come. We’ve seen Daryl Morey be patient in the past with a disgruntled star (i.e., Ben Simmons), so it wouldn’t be shocking if he held onto Harden until another All-Star player demands a trade.

With no help on the way, Maxey will be the No. 2 scoring option in Philly. In 13 games without Harden last year, Maxey averaged 24.8 points, 5.4 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 3.2 triples. A mid-season trade could hurt his value, but if Philly falls short of their expectations again this season, Joel Embiid COULD ask out, which would leave this as Maxey’s team.

Devin Vassell, Spurs

Vassell is a favorite of many fantasy analysts, but if you weren’t paying attention, you may have been confused by his four-year, $146 million extension. The former lottery pick has taken a large step forward in each of his first three seasons, and this next one should be no different. He’s healthy, he has more help, and he has another year of experience under his belt.

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While Victor Wembanyama is the future of the franchise, Vassell is the Spurs’ second-best player. He can contribute value across the board, but he still has room to improve. He’s nowhere near his ceiling, but his rise should start this season. Buy in before he blossoms.

Anfernee Simons, Trail Blazers

Sure, there’s only one basketball in Portland, but Simons may be the best scorer on this team full of scorers. He turned 24 in June, but he’s one of the most lethal shooters in the league. In 11 games without Dame last season, Simons averaged 27.9 points, 5.7 assists and 4.6 triples per game.

Simons won’t reach that volume over the course of a full season, but he’ll still return solid value in those categories. He doesn’t offer much defensively, but that won’t keep him off the floor. This is Scoot Henderson’s team, but Simons will look like the star next season.

Zach Collins, Spurs

Collins just signed a two-year, $35 million extension Sunday, which means they want him to be the center next to Wemby until 2026. Collins has been solid in the preseason, but he was incredible to finish last season. Over the final two months, he averaged 16.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.6 triples. He may produce to that level during the season, but he’ll provide well-rounded value from the center spot for the next few years.

Onyeka Okongwu, Hawks

Okongwu is so close to taking over the starting center spot in Atlanta. It is surprising that Clint Capela has lasted this long, but when OO takes over, he’s going to boom in fantasy. He shot 5-for-13 from deep in four preseason games, and while he may not shoot quite that many during the regular season, he’ll provide way more spacing for Trae Young to operate than Capela ever has.

Plus, Okongwu was nearly a top-75 player in 9-cat leagues last season with averages of 9.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, 0.7 steals and 1.3 blocks while shooting 63.8% from the field in 23.1 minutes. He also shot 78.1% from the line, which is much better than Capela. Seriously, trade for this guy before he gets a permanent starting job.

Jalen Duren

“Detroit has too many centers! There aren’t enough minutes for Duren, Isaiah Stewart, James Wiseman AND Marvin Bagley! I’m just staying away from that poverty franchise.” Let’s make something clear: Duren is the center of the future in Detroit. He’s the best big they have, and he’s going to start this season.

Check out all of our NBA preseason videos!

He’s a walking double-double that will shoot a high field goal percentage and provide defensive stats. Traditional center stuff, but he hasn’t even turned 20 yet! Plus, he showcased some shooting range and ball handling during Summer League.

The sky's the limit for this kid, and he’s going to grow alongside their young core. Grab him now before your league mates figure out that he is far and away the best big in Detroit.

Jalen Johnson, Hawks

Much like with Okongwu, Johnson is close to a starting role. A changing of the guard is happening in Atlanta’s frontcourt, albeit very slowly. Since their Eastern Conference Finals run a few years ago, they’ve traded away Kevin Huerter and John Collins, and it wouldn’t be shocking if Clint Capela, Saddiq Bey and De’Andre Hunter were also moved within the next few seasons (some sooner than others).

As those trades happen (or even before if Johnson simply takes the starting role), minutes will open up. Johnson is the starting power forward of the future in Atlanta and has shown the upside to provide value across the board. He had an exciting preseason, and it’s only a matter of time before he soars to new heights.

Dyson Daniels, Pelicans

Daniels isn’t on the cusp of a breakout, but he is still a player to buy now. Daniels should see a larger role to start the season with Jose Alvarado out, but it will still be limited. He played well in the preseason and showcased an ability to get both steals and assists while also displaying an improved 3-point shot.

As C.J. McCollum ages, Daniels will play a larger role, and there will come a time when Daniels is the starting point guard and providing top-50 value. Make sure he’s on your roster before that happens!

Fall is hands-down the best season. I thought it was summer when I was a kid, but I was dumb then. I’m dumber now, but at least I know Fall is better than the sweat-filled sauna months of the middle of the year. Football, weather, hoodies, stews. This is a football column, but it should be noted that the NBA is about to tip off, meaning we’ll have a day of NFL, NBA, NHL, and a World Series game right around the corner. So, cherish this beautiful season while we have it because winter is coming. Or, if you’re like my survivor pool, it has already come and frozen me out of any possible winnings. Oh well, on to the column!

10 Studs

1. Travis Kelce - 179 yds. 1 TD
2. Patrick Mahomes - 424 yds. 4 TDs
3. D’Onta Foreman - 120 total yds. 3 TDs
4. Lamar Jackson - 357 yds. 4 total TDs
5. Mark Andrews - 63 yds. 2 TDs
6. Gardner Minshew - 305 yds. 4 total TDs
7. Josh Downs - 125 yds. 1 TD
8. Jonathan Taylor - 120 total yds. 1 TD
9. Jahmyr Gibbs - 126 total yds. 1 TD
10. Darren Waller - 98 yds. 1 TD

Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce. Lamar Jackson to Mark Andrews. Those are the QB-to-TE combinations we’ve become accustomed to over the years, and we bank on them in our season-long and DFS stacks. On National Tight End Day, the combinations delivered and then some.

I admit it, I do this every year. I think the Chiefs look “underwhelming” and “disappointing.” I wonder “who they have besides Kelce?” It never matters. Mahomes dazzled with a 400+ yard game and, like clockwork, the Chiefs reminded everyone why they are, in fact, so impressive.

In Baltimore, Jackson is on pace for a career year after contract drama this off-season. His Ravens just dismantled a good Lions team. An AFC Championship collision course between KC and Baltimore? Stay tuned!

From healthy scratch to Week 7 fantasy RB1, the D’Onta Foreman story. Foreman is the lead back in Chicago out of necessity with injuries depleting the backfield, but his performances should get him more work and less healthy scratches. The Bears will likely ride him as long as Justin Fields is sidelined.

Nobody told the Indianapolis Colts they weren’t supposed to be this good. First-round QB pick Anthony Richardson had accuracy questions coming into the season and then went down to injury. Their supremely talented running back Jonathan Taylor wanted a new contract, then a trade, then had beef with the organization.

Everything was set up to be a question mark, and yet here we are. Backup QB Gardner Minshew made the most of his throws and showed off his own dual-threat ability with two passing and two rushing touchdowns.

Taylor split carries with Zack Moss but looks to be regaining playing form and is on the verge of being the alpha in the backfield again. Rookie receiver Josh Downs has shown he can complement or even outpace Michael Pittman. And Indy scored 38 in a losing effort against one of the NFL’s best defenses. There are brighter days ahead for this exciting team.

Jahmyr Gibbs, welcome to the party! So what if you did most of your damage in garbage time? I, personally, don’t believe in garbage time if there are fantasy points to be earned and/or money to be made. Gibbs operated as Detroit’s feature back while the Lions were getting manhandled by Baltimore and gave a boost to fantasy owners. He also saw 10 targets, which is perhaps a sign of things to come even when David Montgomery returns.

Let’s round the 10 studs out with another tight end to put the bow on National Tight Ends day. Darren Waller had his best game of the season by far and maybe is wondering if Daniel Jones should take some more time off. The Giants offense has looked better with Tyrod Taylor under center while Jones recovers from a neck injury. That’s a low bar, but some Giants fantasy assets like Waller finally look like startable pieces.

The Duds

While Bijan Robinson will be the written name here, the real dud is Falcons coach Arthur Smith. At some point between Saturday night and Sunday, Robinson apparently got a headache? And then Smith said he wasn’t feeling great when asked why he wasn’t on the field much? But then Robinson got one carry for 3 yards in the 4th quarter? None of it makes sense and I know fantasy mangers and bettors were enraged. Hey Artie, how about a heads-up next time?

Bills QB Josh Allen had a fine fantasy day, but the team’s reality is a lot less clear. A struggle against a bad Giants team last week followed by a loss to a bad Patriots team this week. Maybe Allen’s injury affected him? There were pedestrian numbers all around, but Gabe Davis’s one catch for six yards didn’t help anyone. The Bills have things to figure out.

Finally, I’ll include the Packers’ offense as a whole. Aaron Jones clearly isn’t right no matter how many times he’s declared “active.”  It takes Green Bay and Jordan Love a whole first half of football to get going most games. They lost to the Broncos, who had been the league’s slump-buster. And they were coming off a bye. Not sure who you can trust in that offense right now.

An action-packed Sunday culminates with arguably the best matchup of the season so far. The high-flying Miami Dolphins play at Philadelphia to battle the reigning NFC champion Eagles on Sunday Night Football.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Miami Dolphins, 8:20 pm ET

Betting Odds (DraftKings)

• Line: Eagles -3, Dolphins +3
• Moneyline: Eagles (-155), Dolphins (+130)
• Over/Under: 51.5

Team Ranks (2023)

Eagles

• Points for: 25.8 (5th)
• Points Allowed: 20.7 (15th)

Dolphins

• Points For: 37.2 (1st)
• Points Allowed: 26 (26th)

Key Injuries to Watch

Eagles

• FS Reed Blankensip (Ribs) – Out
• CB Bradley Roby (Shoulder) - Out

Dolphins

• CB Jalen Ramsey (Knee) – Out

The injury report for each side during the week was long but it seems both teams are at or near full strength. The Dolphins’ star offseason acquisition on defense, Jalen Ramsey, returned to practice this week in a limited capacity. He underwent knee surgery in July, and he’s likely going to return sooner than many people expected. The Dolphin secondary has been below average, and they will get quite the boost when he makes his Dolphins debut – just not this week.

Captain Prices (DraftKings)

• Tyreek Hill, WR, $18,000
• Jalen Hurts, QB, $17,100
• Tua Tagovailoa, QB, $15,900
• AJ Brown, WR, $15,000
• Raheem Mostert, RB, $14,700
• Jaylen Waddle, WR, $12,900
• D’Andre Swift, RB, $12,000
• DeVonta Smith, WR, $11,100

Flex Prices (DraftKings)

• Tyreek Hill, WR, $12,000
• Jalen Hurts, QB, $11,400
• Tua Tagovailoa, QB, $10,600
• AJ Brown, WR, $10,000
• Raheem Mostert, RB, 9,800
• Jaylen Waddle, WR, $8,600
• D’Andre Swift, RB, $8,000
• DeVonta Smith, WR, $7,400

According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Hurts is projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate at DraftKings by a margin in over 27% of lineups. It's a bit surprising given his performance against the Jets.

Swift is projected to be the next most-owned Captain in Showdown lineups, appearing in 9.5%. Surprisingly, Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa are projected to Captain just over 7% of lineups apiece.

The flex positions are projected to be much more balanced. Tua is the only player projected to appear in over 50% of lineups, meanwhile, Hurts, Hill, Brown, and Swift are projected to be in over 40% of lineups.

The current Vegas total is set at 51.5 points. Each offense plays at a quick pace. The Eagles run first, and the Dolphins pass first. Miami is 8th in neutral pace, and Philadelphia is 13th,, so there should be no shortage of plays.

By now, you have heard the storyline that Hurts and Tagovailoa are former college teammates at Alabama and will square off in the NFL for the first time. Tua was drafted in the first round, Hurts in the second round, in 2020. Each quarterback is in the MVP conversation, and both franchises believe they are Super Bowl contenders coming into Week 7 with 5-1 records. This matchup has the potential to be a Super Bowl preview and should not disappoint.

Captain Option

With this game projected to be a shootout, it would be wise to have one of these star quarterbacks in your captain slot, but which one? The answer is Hurts.

Jalen Hurts, QB, $11,400

The Eagles appear to be a pass funnel defense because it’s so strong against the run. Tua will be under pressure all night against the Eagles’ pass rush. The Eagles’ defense projects similarly to the Bills, and that’s where we saw the Dolphins give their worst offensive performance so far. It will be difficult for Miami to push the ball downfield to Hill and Waddle.

The Eagles’ offensive line is the best in the NFL. Hurts is set up to boom, as Miami has allowed the 7th highest passer rating. The Dolphins are bottom 10 in passing yards allowed. Hurts also provides the rushing upside that Tua doesn’t.

It’s a no-brainer for me to ride with Hurts in a bounce-back spot at home in a matchup where he will play with a chip on his shoulder.

Sneaky Option

DeVonta Smith, WR, $7,400

One thing about the NFL I’ve learned is when everyone zigs, you should zag. Smith has been in the headlines for his struggles, as he’s only eclipsed 20 fantasy points once so far.

But he’s in position to get back on track against a poor Dolphins secondary. He ranks 9th in the NFL in deep targets but doesn’t have much to show for it. Miami runs a ton of zone defense, and Smith’s yard per route run increases against zone coverage.

He should see plenty of Eli Apple and he can burn him on multiple occasions. I love that Smith and his fellow former teammate at Alabama, Jaylen Waddle, will be on the same field again as well. Smith will want to show up for his quarterback.

Cheap Option

Jeff Wilson, RB, $200

Wilson hasn’t played yet this season, so expectations should be tempered. He practiced fully this week for the first time, and it hasn’t been announced if he will be activated off of IR, but all signs are pointing toward it. With rookie running back De’Von Achane out, the veteran Wilson will slide into backup duties behind Raheem Mostert. Dolphins running backs have exploded this season for 280 fantasy points combined, which is 79 more than any other team!

The SNF matchup isn’t one to get excited about though. The Eagles boast a top-three run defense and have given up just the 2nd fewest fantasy points per game to RBs. The price on Wilson, who can potentially see double-digit touches, is hard to ignore though, and gives you more options on the slate.

Prediction

This is going to be a great matchup. I believe the Eagles defense up front will eventually be too much for the Dolphins. Hurts should pick apart Miami’s zone defensive scheme, and Swift will find room to run on the Eagles zone runs. The Dolphins offense has been historic, and I expect them to keep this interesting, but ultimately, Miami won’t be able to slow down the methodical Eagles offense. Hurts gets the best of Tua in their first NFL matchup.

Final Score: Eagles 34, Dolphins 20

Week 5 Value Finder

We are back with another Value Finder column for this pivotal Week 7. Six teams have a bye, so that shortens the selection pool. Less room for error so every player is valuable. Let’s look at some values:

QB: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (DK: $5,800, FD: $7,800)

Love has not consistently had all the weapons available to him, but coming off a bye he is expected to have a healthy offense. The Broncos defense have allowed the second most passing yards in the league and the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

This is a tough play when you think about how Love went into the bye. He looked very rough during a two-game losing streak, so it was the perfect spot for a bye week. Coach Matt LaFleur can center the offense and it gave the whole team another week to get healthy. While on the road, the Fantasy Sports Contrarian Optimizer agrees this is a great spot for Love versus one of the worst defenses in the league.

RB: Zach Evans, Los Angeles Rams (DK: $4,000, FD: $4,800)

You must get different if you want to win a million dollars. Evans is getting a huge opportunity with the injuries to the Rams running back room. Kyren Williams just went on IR after they traded Cam Akers to Minnesota, and Ronnie Rivers is out as well.

Evans will start against a Steelers defense that is giving up the seventh most fantasy points per game. Even with Matthew Stafford’s gunslinger mentality, Sean McVay wants to keep running. The Contrarian Edge Optimizer spit out Evans as a cheap, value play a few times. Look for Evans to exploit a Steelers defense that will be playing the pass more than the run in this game.

WR: Dionte Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (DK: $5,000, FD: $6,000)

Johnson returns from a hamstring injury that sent him to IR. He was a full participant in practice all week and does not carry an injury designation.

The Steelers offense has been abysmal without him, but I think he can reclaim his role as a focal point. Despite the changes at quarterback, he has consistently been a target hog. He runs the short to intermediate routes and is escape option for Kenny Pickett. The CEO likes Johnson as a cheap, good option.

TE: Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers (DK: $3,300, FD: $5,000)

Game Stack Alert. The Broncos' defense is giving up the most fantasy points to tight ends. They have allowed the most receiving yards and have given up three touchdowns — fourth most in the NFL.

Musgrave was knocked out in Week 4 against the Lions, but still played 69% of snaps the next week. He is lapping the tight end room in snap count and Love has fed him targets in every game he has finished. Expect to see Musgrave take advantage of a soft Broncos secondary.

A pivotal Game 5 in the ALCS and Game 4 in the NLCS is on tab for Friday, and with it comes some fun over/under challenges to potentially take advantage of.

Jordan Montgomery: 4.0 strikeouts vs. Astros - Over (Underdog)

Montgomery was fantastic in Game 1 and has been since the middle of September. He hasn't piled up strikeouts, but he's reached this total in seven of his last eight starts. You could argue he's due for some regression, but even if he's mediocre it’s likely he’ll pick up five-plus punchouts.

Trea Turner: 8.0 fantasy points at Diamondbacks - Over (PrizePicks)

Turner has picked up at least one hit in every postseason game so far for the Phillies, and he’s slashing a robust .471/.556/.882 with three homers and four stolen bases over those nine contests. Now, the right-handed hitting infielder will take on Joe Mantiply and the Arizona bullpen with a chance to give Philadelphia a commanding 3-1 lead. After scoring just one run against Brandon Pfaadt and Arizona in Thursday’s loss, it’s a good bet that Turner and the D-Backs offense will turn things around Friday.

Ketel Marte: 1.5 total bases vs. Phillies - Higher (Underdog)

The Marte part-ay has been alive and well in the postseason, with the switch-hitting infielder registering a 1.046 OPS in the playoffs. He’s coming off a three-hit day with a pair of doubles in Game 3, and he’ll face Cristopher Sanchez and the Philadelphia bullpen. Ride the hot hand, especially against a pitcher that hasn’t appeared in a game since September 30.

Adolis Garcia: 1.5 total bases vs. Astros: Under (PrizePicks)

Garcia has been solid in helping Texas get to this point and did go 2-for-4 with a homer against the Astros on Thursday. The outfielder has struggled against Justin Verlander, however, going 2-for-11 with no extra-base hits and three strikeouts. It will just take a two-bagger or better to reach this total, but after going deep in the loss Thursday, I’ll bet on some regression in this case, (relatively) confidently.

Cristopher Sanchez: 3.0 strikeouts at Diamondbacks - Under (DraftKings, PrizePicks)

Sanchez has not played since September 30. The left-hander was solid in the regular season with a 3.44 ERA in just-over 99 innings, but this will be his first ever appearance in the postseason, and it’s hard to simulate that experience. It seems likely Sanchez will only go through the Arizona lineup one time and asking him to strike out a quality Arizona lineup more than three times in a short time is asking a lot.

Yordan Alvarez: 9.0 fantasy points at Rangers - Over (DraftKings)

Imagine betting the under on any total for Yordan Alvarez in a postseason game. Couldn’t be me. I don’t care if it’s a lefty on the mound. I don’t care that it’s a high total that basically requires him to drive in a run or pick up two-plus hits. It doesn’t matter. It’s Yordan Alvarez. That’s all the analysis you need.

After a Thursday Night Football game last week that is best to just pretend didn’t exist -- not the first time we’ve said that, and certainly not the last --  this one could be pretty good, and based on the betting odds, Vegas seems to agree.

Game

New Orleans Saints vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Betting odds (DraftKings)

• Line: Saints -1
• Moneyline:Saints  --108, Jaguars -112
• Over/Under: 40

Team ranks

Saints

• Points per game: 18.2 (24th)
• Points allowed per game: 16 (6th)

Jaguars

• Points per game: 23.7 (10th)
• Points allowed per game: 20.3 (15th)

Key Fantasy Injuries

Jaguars

• QB Trevor Lawrence (Knee): QUESTIONABLE
• WR Zay Jones (Knee: OUT

Lawrence is dealing with a knee sprain and was a limited participant in both Tuesday and Wednesday’s practices. The third-year signal-caller is expected to play, but monitor this situation. CJ Beathard would likely start if the Jaguars decide to take precaution and sit Lawrence, and that would be an awfully risky fantasy play.

Saints

• TE Juwan Johnson (Calf): OUT
• RB Jamaal Williams (Hamstring): QUESTIONABLE

Johnson will miss a fourth straight game since he picked up a calf injury before Week 4 against the Buccaneers. That should open things up again for Taysom Hill -- more on him later -- with Jimmy Graham and Foster Moreau also inline for targets.

Williams was designated for return by the Saints this week off injured reserve after missing the previous few weeks with his hamstring injury, and he was a limited participant for practices prior to Thursday’s contest. If he is active, it seems likely he’ll see touches in the red zone, but Williams will have tough sledding against a Jacksonville defense that ranks third in total yards on the ground, and seventh in yards per attempt.

Big Names/Big Prices (DraftKings, Captain Prices)

• Alvin Kamara, RB: $15,600
• Travis Etienne, RB: 15,300
• Trevor Lawrence, QB: $14,400
• Chris Olave, WR: $13,500
• David Carr, QB: $13,200
• CJ Beathard, QB: $12,900
• Calvin Ridley, WR: $12,000
• Christian Kirk, WR: $12,000
• Michael Thomas, WR: $10,500

It’s weird to see two running backs at the top of the list before you see a quarterback, but the Lawrence injury is baked into that equation, as is the fact that Kamara has received at least 25 touches in each of his three games and the Jaguars are ranked 15th in opponents points per game against RBs. Etienne will be facing a much stingier test with the Saints ranking second-best in points allowed to RBs, but his (all but) assured large workload makes him worth consideration.

Carr has not been able to get the ball downfield in his first season with the Saints, and he needed 50 attempts to get up to 353 yards after throwing for just 403 yards combined in his previous three contests. He does have competent weapons in Olave, Thomas and Kamara -- among others -- and he’ll be facing a defense that ranks 31st in yards allowed and 22nd in passing touchdowns. If Carr can’t throw downfield in this one, it’s time to get concerned -- if you aren’t already.

Ridley hasn’t shown much consistency – he’s topped 100 yards twice but hasn’t surpassed 40 in the other four games. While the yardage hasn’t always been there, the former Atlanta wideout has been a target hog with seven or more in five games. All due respect to players like Olave, Kirk and Thomas; but Ridley is the player I’d be looking to roster first.

Sneaky options

Taysom Hill, TE, NO: $6,200

Hill typically isn’t involved in the passing game despite being listed as a tight end, but that changed in the loss to the Texans with eight targets and seven receptions for the “former” quarterback. Some of that may have to do with game script -- again, Carr threw 50 times in that loss -- but with Juwan Johnson not available and a solid showing when give the opportunity, it shouldn’t be a big surprise if Hill sees a good number of targets again against Jacksonville.

Brandon McManus, K, JAX: $4,800

I promised two weeks ago I would try and limit kicker talk, but on a Thursday format that relies entirely on flex plays, McManus makes sense. The Jaguars have gotten into field goal range plenty, and while they’ve finished those drives with touchdowns 14 times, McManus has also been called upon to kick 14 field goal attempts – three against the Colts. At that price point, it makes a lot of sense to have McManus in your lineup.

Brenton Strange, TE, JAX: $1,000

Strange scored a touchdown while picking up 27 yards in the victory over the Colts and played 55 percent of the snaps, a season-high for the rookie. The 6-foot-4 tight end was a second-round selection for the Jaguars, and while he isn’t likely to be among the leaders for targets, he can still provide fantasy production at this price point. Adding a player like Strange also allows you to add more stars to your lineup, which is always nice.

Prediction

This is probably the most evenly matched Thursday Night Football game -- on paper – this season. If Lawrence can’t play that changes things quite a bit, but the Jags just seem like the more talented team at this point in the season and the more likely winner, even with the game in New Orleans.

Jaguars 23, Saints 14

Some weeks demand you to differentiate yourself more than others in the world of DFS and week 7 of the 2023 NFL season is one of those weeks. With the Panthers, Bengals, Cowboys, Texans, Jets, and Titans all on bye, ownership is going to be even more consolidated than usual.

With the help of the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, we’ve identified three stacks to help differentiate your lineups. Whether you’re looking for that budget option at QB or looking to spend big, there’s an identified stack to fill out your lineup.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams

• ‍Matthew Stafford ($6500 DraftKings, $6700 FanDuel)
• Tutu Atwell ($4300 DraftKings, $5200 FanDuel)

Stafford has his favorite weapon in Cooper Kupp back, but don’t forget about Rams big play threat Tutu Atwell. Game script in the blowout second half of the Cardinals game in Week 6 played into Tutu’s one target as did Kupp’s return.

This week, the Rams face one of the most porous secondaries in the NFL. The Steelers have given up the fourth-most PPR fantasy points to wide receivers and have been vulnerable to the big play. Enter Stafford and his favorite deep threat option Atwell.

You’ll save cash compared to some of the high-profile options this week and differentiate yourself from the competition with Tutu as opposed to more popular Rams receiving options.

‍Washington Commanders @ New York Giants‍

• Sam Howell ($5500 DraftKings, $7400 FanDuel)
• Curtis Samuel ($4000 DraftKings, $6400 FanDuel)

Howell is coming off three consecutive good-to-great fantasy performances. He’s been QB 8, 5, and 13 in the previous three weeks. If you look further back, you might get scared off of starting a QB that scored 0.6 fantasy points against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3.

The good news is the Giants are not Buffalo. And despite their good defensive performance in Week 6, this Giants defense is still bottom half in the league against quarterbacks and bottom third against wide receivers.

Curtis Samuel is on a hot streak and appears to be Howell’s favorite target over the middle of the field. He’s scored at least 14 PPR fantasy points in each of his last three contests and been a wide receiver 2 or better in all three as well.

Howell has a three-touchdown upside any given week and Samuel may be the most likely to catch a touchdown given Howell’s propensity to target him and Samuel’s ability to score on the ground or through the air.

‍Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs‍

• Patrick Mahomes ($8300 DraftKings, $9200 FanDuel)
• Travis Kelce ($8000 DraftKings, $8500 FanDuel)
• Rashee Rice ($4700 DraftKings, $5600 FanDuel)

Now we’re gonna spend some money. The last two stacks were a bit more budget friendly, but we’re breaking the bank on this week’s highest projected point total with some of the NFL’s superstars throwing down.

The Chargers have given up the most passing yards per game at 289.0 and that’s against quarterbacks named Ryan Tannehill and Aidan O’Connell. Patrick Mahomes is not either of those two and seems poised for a big game against a weak pass defense.

Kelce is Mahomes No. 1 target, and while the Chargers have been good against tight ends,, Kelce is borderline matchup proof. In a high scoring game involving the Chiefs, Kelce will be involved.

Don’t sleep on rookie Rashee Rice though. His price hasn’t quite caught up with what appears to be a growing role in the offense. Take the discount on Mahomes’ second option in Rice and bathe in the points of what should be a high scoring affair.

The NBA season starts Oct. 24, but we've got you covered for your Fantasy drafts! NBA experts Corey Parson, Dr. A, and Jonas Nader rank every point guard and shooting guard! We'll discuss average draft position, tips for your draft, and more! Check in daily on the Fantasy Fire and Ice Podcast for injury updates, breaking NBA news, and player profiles.

Steezy A’s Week 7 Bargain Bin (DFS) 

Let’s just say last week didn’t go as planned… but blame it on Geno Smith, James Cook, K.J. Osborn, and Logan Thomas - or blame it on me if you want.

You know what? There’s enough blame pie for everybody, blame it on all of us!

I’m not entirely sure what my hit rate is this season as far as my ‘bargain bin’ plays for you guys, but I’m thinking I’ve missed more shots than I’ve made at this point. But hey - shooters gon shoot and that’s the world of fantasy for ya. 

Nevertheless, I’m back and feeling better than ever, bring it on Week 7! (all salaries are courtesy of DraftKings) 

QB: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers ($5,500, QB17 at cost) 

I found this purdy interesting (pun intended), but on DraftKings, there’s only three QB’s with an ownership percentage north of 10 percent.

You have your usual suspects in Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, and then you have Brock Purdy!

Perhaps DraftKings is doubtful about the status of San Fran’s injured stars in Christian McCaffrey (oblique/hip), Trent Williams (ankle), and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and whether or not they all actually play on ‘Monday Night Football’ on the road against the Minnesota Vikings, but are we going to act like Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Kyle Shanahan don’t exist???? Oh, and Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell make for great depth and would make a lot of teams envious given the plethora of running back injuries across the league. 

Yes, the Niners are coming off a tough loss in Cleveland to the Browns, but the Vikings defense is in another stratosphere in comparison to the Browns defense, and I mean that in a bad way. 

Purdy was in the top 5 in a lot of people’s MVP ballots and after one bad week against arguably a top 3 defense in the NFL in inclement weather, all of the naysayers are quick to slander his name? 

At QB17 as far as cost, I don’t think you can find any more value at the QB position in Week 7 than Purdy, who should easily finish as a top 10 QB this week (especially when you take into account the fact that six teams are on bye).

And did I forget to mention that the Vikings allow the 9th most fantasy points to opposing QB’s? 

Fire up the Purdy train!

RB: Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers ($5,300, RB23 at cost) 

As a guy who was raised in the Seattle area all my life, it’s essentially taboo to heap praise or even speak of the San Francisco 49ers in a positive light, and yet here I am recommending two straight 49ers players. 

Forgive me 12s, I’m just trying to do my job! 

Whether or not Christian McCaffrey ultimately plays, Mason is still an intriguing start in DFS. 

While he’s listed behind Elijah Mitchell on the depth chart, he’s vastly outperformed his counterpart, has scored in two straight games, is averaging almost double the yards per carry Mitchell is on the season, and is averaging just south of 6 yards per carry. 

Given all of the injuries at RB across the league, the pickings are going to be slim this week, especially when you also consider the fact that they’re six teams on bye. 

Given SF’s propensity to turn RB’s into stars within their system, Mason is a good bet to keep that train going. 

WR: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks ($6,000, WR21 at cost) 

17.7, 3.7, 26.8, 15.5, 21.7, and 53. 

Those are the amount of fantasy points that Tyler Lockett has scored in his last six meetings with the Arizona Cardinals. 

WOW.

If anything, the Cardinals defense has only regressed since the last time Lockett played against this team, and it doesn’t help that they’re giving up the 7th-most fantasy points (on average) to opposing wide receivers this season. 

Coming off a tough loss to the Bengals in which the offense was only able to muster a measly 13 points, the Seahawks offense is due and the Arizona Cardinals are in line to pay that bill. 

Not to mention, the Cardinals have been a punching bag this season for teams looking to bounce back, just ask the Bengals. 

WR: Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,700, WR38 at cost) 

I’m going to do something I’ve never done before, and that's to include the same player in the same article two weeks in a row. 

If you were paying attention to last week’s column, I did however have Rashee Rice penciled in as my ‘flex’ player of the week, meaning he’s eligible for this week’s article as one of my designated WR’s. 

Logistics over his placement aside, there were reports earlier today from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler that “Rice's profile could continue to grow in the Chiefs' offense coming out of Thursday's night's win over Denver.” 

Rice went from being outside of the top 50 at WR last week to now being penciled in as a top-40 play at his position, but I still view him as underrated and an absolute bargain in DFS given the matchup, his rapidly developing trust from Patrick Mahomes, and the potential for a shootout. 

How about this for a stat: 

Entering Week 7, the Chargers are allowing opposing wide receivers to score an average of 45.3 fantasy points… 

Do with that what you will. 

TE: Jonnu Smith, Atlanta Falcons ($3,600, TE16 at cost) 

Talk about a revelation at the tight end position! 

Jonnu Smith hasn’t been fantasy-relevant since 2020 when he was with the Titans, and fast forward three years later - who would have known that he’d currently be a top 10 tight end in ALL OF FANTASY. 

The familiarity with HC Arthur Smith and his system helps tremendously, but it also helps that Smith has uber-talented pass catchers alongside of him in Kyle Pitts and Drake London to take attention away from Smith, who hasn’t scored under 8 fantasy points since Week 1. 

Not only does Smith have a steady floor, he’s also seen six or more targets in 4 of 6 games so far this season. 

Statistically, the matchup isn’t there for Smith, as the Buccaneers allow an average of just under 10 fantasy points to opposing tight ends, good for 11th in the league as far as least amount allowed. 

However, no one outside of the Falcons saw this sort of season coming, so who's to say he can’t continue to defy expectations? 

FLEX: Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders ($4,000, WR47 at cost) 

Going into the season, the consensus was that second-year WR Jahan Dotson was going to be the clear-cut No. 2 receiving option behind Terry McLaurin in Washington given the potential he flashed in his rookie season.

Entering Week 7, that couldn’t be further from the truth. 

Enter Curtis Samuel, who is not only the clear-cut No. 2 in D.C, but he also happens to be sitting at WR25 (standard PPR scoring) and is a top 75 player in fantasy right now (No. 66 overall). 

Having scored 14+ fantasy points in each of the last three weeks, Samuel also only has 1 game this season with under 40 receiving yards. Talk about consistency! 

In addition, the Giants give up the 13th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and they still have to stop Terry McLaurin. 

I absolutely LOVE Samuel this week, particularly in DFS as the value is too crazy to pass up. Barely inside the top 50 when he’s a top 70 player in ALL OF FANTASY at this point of the season? 

The disrespect. 

Quarterback Rankings

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QB Thoughts: There's a mess to clean up with Anthony Richardson, Deshaun Watson, and Justin Fields out with injuries and Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud and Dak Prescott on their bye weeks. Dig deep and utilize some aging veterans in offenses we respect.

Baker Mayfield is coming off his second QB26 finish of the season, coming against the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles. This week he's QB8, where he finished in Week 4 after a three-touchdown performance against the Saints. I expect a bounce back with fireworks from the Buccaneers at home in Week 7.

Cody's Shorts: Must-Start Sleeper QBs | Under-the-Radar RBs

Geno Smith has cooled off since his hot start in 2022 and is QB23 in points per game this season. To begin 2022, he was QB7 through the first 12 games, and a strong part of his resume was running. His rush attempts per game are down from 4.0 to 2.4, and yards from 21.5 to 8.4. In Week 7, he and the Seahawks play a Cardinals defense that has given up the 5th-most fantasy points to QBs and is tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed with three.

Running Back Rankings

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RB Thoughts: We go back to the well with D’Onta Foreman, who finished with 15 rush attempts and 12 routes on 39 snaps in Week 6. Roschon Johnson is still in concussion protocol, and the Bears are activating Travis Homer to join Foreman and Darrynton Evans in the backfield.

Too often fantasy gamers drop players too quickly after spending F.A.A.B. on said player. In Week 6, Jeffrey Wilson was a hot commodity, but he was a “healthy” inactive Sunday with the Dolphins needing depth on the offensive line. Chris Brooks and Salvon Ahmed took the reins behind Raheem Mostert, and Brooks went down with an injury. In Week 7, expect Wilson to have a larger role than Ahmed.

The deepest of plays is on the Rams practice squad. Darrell Henderson was signed Tuesday and Royce Freeman was signed onto the active roster. One of these two players will see a substantial growth in their role, because it was zero in prior weeks. My bet is on coach Sean McVay to ride Henderson.

Wide Receiver Rankings

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WR Thoughts: After back-to-back flops from Davante Adams, he's ranked WR8. As the week goes on, we should hear some positive regression coming in favor of Adams. His health has been in question, but the utilization of players around him and lack of winning are factors. Adams has a real chance to rise to a projected top-4 option.

My favorite deep plays in Week 7 are Brandon Powell, who has 10 targets over the last two weeks without Justin Jefferson in the lineup; Josh Downs, who is averaging 6.8 targets per game; and Gardner Minshew, who is averaging six more pass attempts per game than Anthony Richardson.

Both Powell and Downs are top-30 options.

Tight End Rankings

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TE Thoughts: Week 7 bounce-backs belong to George Kittle and Pat Freiermuth, who has given us a whopping 53 yards this season. Michael Mayer is top 10 after a breakout game against New England, but his rookie counterpart Dalton Kincaid is coming off of a missed game in concussion protocol. He is lined up to bring the Bills some needed energy and output at New England.

Deeper cuts this week belong too Noah Fant, Cade Otton and Andrew Ogletree, with Kylen Granson re-injured.

Kicker Rankings

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Defense Rankings