Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette hits an RBI double against the Kansas City Royals on Sept. 8, 2023 in Toronto. (John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports)
We’re getting closer to the postseason, but there still are fun over/unders to hit in the regular season with a strong slate available Wednesday.
Spencer Strider, Braves RHP: 8.0 strikeouts -- Over (PrizePicks)
Strider gave up 10 runs in his last two outings and went only 2 2/3 innings against the Cardinals. He had been fantastic before that, however, and prior to Wednesday’s clunker he had struck out at least nine hitters in three straight contests. Philadelphia is talented, but has plenty of hitters who can swing and miss. It’s risky for a number this high, but I’ll bet on Strider getting back into double digits today.
Ronald Acuña, Braves OF: 1.5 Total Bases -- Over (PrizePicks)
Would anyone be shocked if Acuña hit this total before the end of the first inning? He had another monster game Thursday with two homers against the Cardinals, and he’s already gone deep four times in the month of September. He’s also hitting just .214 in the month, but there’s simply too much talent -- and too much success -- to ever bet against Acuña reaching this total in 2023.
Jameson Taillon, Cubs RHP: 3 runs -- Over (Underdog)
Taillon is coming off his best start of the season -- and the best as a member of the Cubs -- with six scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks. He also has a 5.27 ERA on the season, and prior to his gem vs the Dbacks he had allowed at least four runs in five straight starts.
He’ll face a Colorado lineup that isn’t spectacular, but it’s at Coors Field, and everyone is well aware how hard it is to pitch there. It’s too hard to imagine Taillon having back-to-back strong starts based on what we’ve seen for the overwhelming majority his campaign.
Julio Rodriguez, Mariners OF: 9.5 fantasy points -- Over (Underdog)
After a sensational August that basically erased his early-season struggles, Rodriguez has been outstanding in September as well with a .300 average and .740 slugging percentage over his first 50 at-bats. He’ll go up against the Angels bullpen Wednesday -- a unit that does not rank among the best in baseball -- and it wouldn’t even be a surprise if he picked up two hits and drove in a few runs as the Mariners battle for a playoff spot.
Bo Bichette, Blue Jays SS: 1.5 total bases -- Over (PrizePicks)
Bichette came off the injured list Friday and got two hits against the Royals. Since then, he’s gone hitless in his next 11 at-bats. While some might find that concerning, it suggests to me the talented shortstop is due for a big day. He’s also slashed a strong .352/.400/.568 against left-handers, and Bichette will be squaring off against a southpaw in Jordan Montgomery and the Rangers on Wednesday. Simply put, this is too good of a player to believe he’ll stay down for long.
We’re being optimists today and going over with every total. Rutschman and Arenado will face starting pitchers that inspire confidence, with the catcher squaring off against Drew Rom (7.79 ERA) and the third baseman seeing Kyle Gibson (5.12). It just takes one of these players having a big day to hit the over, but I’d bet on both hitters getting there in a game that could -- and should -- be a high-scoring affair.
'Monotone' gives his top four picks for PrizePicks and Underdog for Week 5 of the NFL season on Sunday.
Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG WR) Over 5.0 Targets
Game: Giants at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Robinson is over in both of his games, going from only 11 snaps in his return to finishing second in WR routes for the Giants last week. He’s clearly going to be a focal point in this mediocre offense, and last week’s healthy usage proved it.
Miami is very susceptible over the middle, in part due to their deep safety looks, and that’s where Robinson operates. The Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most slot targets this season.
Wan’Dale’s gadget/slot usage is perfect with a weak offensive line. His low ADOT means we don’t need to depend on them, He should rack up plenty of manufactured touches.
I expect the Giants to be trailing, given the 12-point spread. When forced into a passing game script, I like targeting receivers that are running these shallow routes to capitalize against the deep-safety coverages they should be facing.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN WR) Over 3.0 receptions
Game: Titans at Colts, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
I expect Westbrook-Ikhine to keep stepping up with the Treylon Burks injured. That leaves DeAndre Hopkins as the only legit target, with NWI being the WR2 again.
Titans coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Ryan Tannehill have both shown to trust NWI over the past couple seasons, and the Titans will need to pass against a strong Colts defensive line that will gear up to stop Derrick Henry.
NWI posted a 5-54-1 line in this same situation last game, and I’m expecting another 6-plus target game. This unit is not strong, and we love targeting guys without much target competition. Finally, it’s a homecoming game as he played his college ball in Indiana.
David Montgomery (DET) Rush +Rec TD
Game: Panthers at Lions, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Based on price alone, Underdog is offering very good value here. This is priced between -160 and -205 on most sportsbooks, making this play stick out.
We saw the Lions dominate the redzone on the ground with Jamaal Williams scoring 17 touchdowns last season, and Montgomery is already recreating that magic in the same role.
Promising Detroit rookie Jahmyr Gibbs has been a no-show in the red zone, and I expect Monty to continue to coast in a good matchup. He’s scored a touchdown in every game this season, and I loved how much volume he had last week despite immediately coming back from injury and not practicing all week.
TJ Hockenson (MIN TE) 7+ targets
Game: Chiefs at Vikings, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday
Finally, we go to the highest total game of the week. These teams are top-5 in pass rate over expectation, and that should generate a fast-paced game with plenty of action.
The Chiefs’ secondary has been better than expected, and Vikings WR Justin Jefferson should see plenty of safety help over the top. I think Hockenson will continue to stack up those dependable targets as the safety blanket, especially in the 2-minute drill.
Minnesota will likely be playing from behind in this one, and Hockenson is the most consistent target in this offense. He cleared this target number in three of four games, with his one miss coming in a slow-paced game against Carolina with very minimal offense.
Intro: I watch the TNF games (and every NFL game) live, then watch it again on tape for scouting Fantasy/DFS and future betting (player props) purposes. I am a decade-plus-long football scout and Fantasy writer/player (and bettor) of football things. I am a fan of no NFL team, except the one I may have bet on. I review/study game tape for personal profit (or loss) in DFS and handicapping/props.
Let’s look at the BEST and WORST of TNF Week 5, Bears at Commanders.
WORST -- The Milly Maker 1st-Place Win Streak is Broken
After two TNF Milly Maker 1st-place finishes back-to-back, we didn’t win it this week. What? I thought you could just dial up these wins with the FSL Contrarian Optimizer! I thought it was our personal ATM!
No 1st-prize share on TNF. That’s always a ‘worst’ now. Expectations are high for the Optimizer every week based on our previous 2023 performances.
Oh, well. Moving on to Sunday and Sunday night game, and then MNF, then next week’s TNF …
WORST -- Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda
We almost got to the promised land again -- one player off on one of the entries. ‘SO CLOSE’/’one player off’ DFS losses are an easy ‘worst’.
BEST -- D.J. Moore Goes Off
Moore opened the game with 2 catches for 78 yards and a TD -- just like that. Then, he ended the game with a 56-yard catch-and-run TD. Eight catches for 230 yards and 3 TDs total. What a night for Moore.
WORST -- You Do Know D.J. Moore is the Only Guy Fields Throws To, right?
Coming into this game, Moore had caught 54.3% of the passes among all Bears wide receivers. He also made up 60.6% of the receiving yards among all the Bears wide receivers. Moore also has half the receiving TDs among all the Bears wide receivers.
It’s fair to say everyone reading this knew that Moore was basically the only wide receiver Fields looks for.
How is it that the Commanders secondary didn’t plan for that? It’s shocking how wide open the one guy Fields successfully works with was. What did the Commanders think was going To happen in the passing game?
BEST -- FF Lineups with D.J. Moore
I don’t know why, but doesn’t it seem like whenever you have Fantasy players (in head-to-head) going in a TNF game, they suck! And even worse, then you only have 3 days to brew/wallow about it until the rest of your Fantasy team gets after it?
Not this night with DJM.
And obviously, you needed Moore to be your Showdown DFS captain to try to get in on the top prize, and if he was, you had DFS money hopes.
WORST -- If You Faced D.J. Moore in Head-to-Head This Week
Even worse than your own starting player sucking on TNF and thus stewing about it for days, is the nightmare of having the ‘luck’ of your FF opponent this week having Moore. That’s a little extra dose of horrible luck that you can stew about for a few days as well.
BEST -- Justin Fields Delivers to D.J. Moore
On the other end of the D.J. explosion was the maligned Fields. He didn’t look amazing, but he hit on the passes to Moore to rack up nice numbers and finally ran for better yards than he had the past few weeks. QB1 night, maybe the #1 QB1 this week event for the unpredictable Fields.
WORST -- Did You Bench Justin Fields This Week?
What might be worse than any of your Fantasy players sucking on TNF or facing D.J. Moore this week? Did you have Fields on your bench? Enjoy staring at that 30+ point score every time you look at your roster the next few days.
EXTRA WORST -- Did You Trade Justin Fields This Week?
What is definitely worse than any of your Fantasy players sucking on TNF, or facing D.J. Moore or benching Fields, is if you had traded Fields.
Three duds to start FF 2023 for Fields, then a spike in Week 4 that you had to make a call on going forward. Was it Fields ‘figuring it out’ last week? Or was it Denver being so bad on defense that this week seemed like a good escape hatch to deal Fields.
There’s pressure on whatever player/s you acquired for Fields to make this all feel better this weekend.
It’s that time of the week, everyone’s second-favorite (perhaps third-favorite?) day – Friday! You know what that means, it’s time to fade a player -- or five in DFS -- Steezy A style.
Before we commence, I must issue a public apology to Lamar Jackson.
For the second consecutive week, I wasn’t in my right mind and faded a top 5 player at his position; Jackson not only had 4 touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 passing) in a blowout victory over Cleveland, he was QB3 in Week 4 and apparently he was a ‘fade.’
I’ll take this one to the chin and own it. My bad, Lamar! As per usual, all salaries provided are courtesy of DraftKings.
QB: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,600, QB9 at cost)
Will the real Trevor Lawrence PLEASE STAND UP?
Pro Football Focus might have Lawrence as one of their highest-graded QBs of the season thus far, but he hasn’t looked like the same QB that dominated the second half of last season and he definitely hasn’t looked like one of the highest-graded.
And that’s with Calvin Ridley, who has cooled off after a monstrous debut with the Jags in Week 1, having yet to clear more than 40 yards since.
What’s going on in Duval?
Lawrence has only had one multi-TD game, has yet to pass for more than 280 yards and his ownership percentage on DraftKings is a measly 0.2 percent, which means others are catching on.
Yes, the Jaguars might ‘own’ London (where they’ll be playing again this week against the Buffalo Bills), but if you’re looking to own a dub this week, you’re better off starting someone else at QB.
The Bills rank 6th in total defense, 4th in passing defense (less than 170 yards per game), 1st in sacks (16) and might have Von Miller back.
It’s certainly possible Lawrence gets back on track against a top tier AFC team in what could be a shootout, but until we see the fantasy production on the field, it’s hard to justify spending or even starting Lawrence in a 1-QB league when there’s a slew of cheaper options.
RB: Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos ($5,500, RB25 at cost)
Having yet to exceed 65 scrimmage yards, it’s fair to wonder whether Williams’ ceiling is capped in Denver’s offense.
While a workhorse workload wasn’t ever in the cards – Williams is bouncing back from a torn ACL suffered in Week 4 of last season – Denver has more than enough depth at RB to extinguish that possibility.
Williams (hip) practiced on Thursday but given a tough matchup with the Jets and the emergence of rookie RB Jaleel McLaughlin as well as veteran RB Samaje Perine, it’s too risky to expect Williams to perform at his RB25 price tag (his highest weekly finish so far this season is RB27).
The matchup isn’t there. The workload isn’t there. The red zone opportunities aren’t there. The additional usage in the passing game isn’t necessarily there either. Will he be 100% as far as health? One could argue health might not be there either.
It’s not difficult, rather an easy decision. Fade Williams in ALL FANTASY FORMATS this week.
WR: Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos ($6,300, WR18 at cost)
Statistically, the Jets’ pass defense isn’t where it was last season, but that’s not to say they won’t pose a significant threat to the Broncos’ offense, specifically their pass catchers.
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have combined to turn the ball over a whopping six times against the Jets this season. Yikes.
A lack of 100% health has more likely than not played a role in Jeudy’s slow start to the season, but a showdown with a lockdown secondary is the last place I’d look for a wide receiver to have his breakout game.
Surprisingly, the Broncos are 10th in scoring with 25 points per game, but they’ve played the Raiders, Bears, and Commanders, all of whom have bottom-10 defenses. Given how horrid the Denver offense was last season, I’m not sold yet.
To top it off, Courtland Sutton seems to be Russell Wilson’s favorite target through four weeks, as he already has more TD’s this season (3) than he did all of last year (2).
Given the emergence of tertiary options like Brandon Johnson, Marvin Mims, and Jaleel McLaughlin, it’s hard to trust Jeudy as a top-20 play at his position with a WR18 price tag.
It’s a hard pass for me until he’s back to being that guy that averaged 91.6 receiving yards in the last five games of last season.
TE: Darren Waller, New York Giants ($5,400, TE4 at cost)
Going into draft season, the hype on Darren Waller was real.
Allegedly, someone at the Fantasy Expo in Ohio this past summer apparently walked around with a name tag that didn’t have their name, but the statement “Darren Waller will be the overall TE1 in fantasy this season” or something like that.
How asinine!
Waller hasn’t been horrible, but he hasn’t been anywhere near the top-3 TE everybody was drafting/expecting him to be. Perhaps the Giants are misusing him? Sitting at TE13 in standard scoring PPR leagues, I’d say that’s a fair assessment.
Only one game on the season so far with more than three receptions? Less than 40 yards in three out of four games? One double-digit fantasy scoring output?
If you have Waller in a season-long league, I’m not recommending that you drop him. Should he be in your starting lineups? Probably not, but he’s best on your bench if you haven’t already been fielding offers.
Some will blame it on the slate of nasty defenses the Giants have had to (attempt) to slay, but that’s not enough for me. What I will say though, is that given the shallow nature of the TE position, Waller’s upside is still intriguing, but to pay near top dollar for Waller in Week 5 just doesn’t have any merit when there are so many tight ends you can get cheaper that’ll put up comparable numbers.
Waller’s a fade for me every week until the Giants can find some semblance of competency on offense.
FLEX: George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,200, WR21 at cost)
Sometimes in fantasy, no matter how talented a player might appear to be, said talent doesn’t always translate to fantasy production.
Case in point, the man they call ‘NFL Youngboy.’
When you’re catching passes on a team that only averages 15.5 points and 263 total yards per game, both real-life points and fantasy points are going to be at a premium.
When your offensive coordinator is Matt Canada and your offense has gotten worse every season for the last three years, both real-life points and fantasy points are going to be a premium.
Pickens only has one game with more than four receptions, so I don’t know if he has a solid enough floor to warrant starting consideration, specifically in DFS.
At WR37 on the season so far, Pickens’ Week 5 price-tag of WR21 is puzzling, especially when you take into consideration the fact that his QB is already dealing with injuries (and yes, I do realize that four teams are on bye, but WR21 is still too high for me)
The talent is undeniably there with Pickens, but as far as everything else around him? Sub-optimal to say the least, and that’s me being generous.
In points leagues, poor free throw shooters and high turnover players don't hurt fantasy managers as much as they in other leagues, while players who don't score a lot of points lose some value. Those low scorers can make up for it by doing things by stealing the ball, blocking shots or crashing the boards, but the main difference between category scoring vs. points scoring is that the glaring weaknesses of poor free throw shooters and high turnover guys don't ruin your team.
In a points league, you want guys who are going to score a lot while contributing in other categories. If a player doesn't score a lot, but does other things well, he will generally struggle to be a big contributor in points leagues in most cases.
Players who don't score much rank lower in this format than in others. But every scoring format is different and you have to know yours well. Even if a player doesn't score a ton of points, if your league rewards steals or blocks with 3.0 or more points per steal or block, players who excel there can overcome a low-scoring average.
These rankings below highly ignore statistics that negatively impact players in other formats. Players who turn the ball over or can't make free throws, but score a lot of points nightly, really excel in this format.
Points leagues were built for players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shaquille O'Neal back in the day, throwing their poor free throw shooting and lack of 3-pointers out the window.
Here are our rankings for points-based scoring systems for the 2023-24 NBA season:
On paper, this isn’t exactly the most exciting Thursday Night Football game with neither the Commanders nor the Bears likely to be hoisting a trophy at the end of the year, but it’s still football, and there’s enough talent on both sides to call this a game worth watching. They’re all worth watching.
Game
Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears
Betting odds (DraftKings)
Line: Commanders -6
Moneyline:Commanders -265, Bears +215
Over/Under: 44.5
Team ranks
Commanders
Points per game: 22.3 (17th)
Points allowed per game: 30 (29th)
Bears
Points per game: 18.8 (22nd)
Points allowed per game: 34.3 (31st)
Key Fantasy Injuries
Bears
WR Chase Claypool (Other): OUT
Claypool will not be on the field again, as the Bears have effectively ended their partnership with the talented -- but extremely volatile – wideout (Note: Chicago gave up a high second-round pick to procure Claypool’s services last year for reasons that made little sense at the time and even less now). Outside of that, the Chicago offense is healthy.
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The defense can’t say the same. Defensive backs Eddie Jackson (foot) and Jaylon Johnson (hamstring) have been ruled out, and DB Jaquan Brisker (hamstring) is questionable. This is not a very good defense even with those names.
Commanders
RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Illness): QUESTIONABLE
Rodriguez missed Sunday’s overtime loss to the Eagles because of illness, but he was able to get practices in and has a good chance to play.. He won’t carry much fantasy relevance, however, playing behind both Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson.
Jahan Dotson was limited by an ankle injury during Monday and Tuesday’s practices, but he carries no injury designation coming into Thursday and should be a full-go against the beat up -- and not very good, anyway -- Chicago secondary.
Big Names/Big Prices (DraftKings)
Justin Fields, QB: $16,500
Terry McLaurin, WR: $15,300
DJ Moore, WR: $15,000
Sam Howell, QB: $14,100
Brian Robinson Jr, RB: $13,800
Kahlil Herbert, RB: $12,900
Jahan Dotson, WR: $9,600
Cole Kmet, TE: $9,600
Fields struggled as a passer in the first three games of the season but did have a strong day against the Broncos in a losing cause Sunday, completing 28 of 35 passes (80 percent) with four touchdowns and 335 yards.
The Washington secondary has given up 920 passing yards and six touchdowns, which ranks 20th and 21st, respectively. The biggest concern is the Commanders can get to the quarterback and the Bears haven’t been able to protect Fields. But that could lead to scrambling opportunities and a decent rushing day.
Howell has been sacked 24 times -- 14 in the last two weeks. He did bounce back from his four-pick game against the Bills with a solid effort against the undefeated Eagles (29-for-41, 290 yds, 1/0 TD/INT).
Again, the Bears aren’t exactly the Legion of Boom secondary, but with these injuries to the secondary and talented options like McLaurin and Dotson to throw the ball to, this could be a strong game for Howell -- assuming the offensive line can keep him upright.
Kmet hauled in two receiving scores while picking up 85 yards on seven catches against the Broncos, but he’s a risky play Thursday. The Commanders rank third in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and Kmet only had 11 catches for 104 yards with no scores prior to the Denver game. He’s the best of the options at the position Thursday, but those who don’t need to play a tight end might want to look elsewhere to fill out their rosters.
Sneaky options
Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI: $7,200
Johnson disappointed against the Broncos, with only 13 yards on five carries and only one target as a receiver. This is a bet on him being more involved in the passing game Thursday, as he’s a better option in that regard than Hebert, and he’ll likely be a safety valve for Fields against a strong Commanders pass rush.
We saw evidence of what Johnson can do with six catches in the opener against the Packers. It shouldn’t shock anyone if he received a similar level of opportunity in this one.
Dyami Brown, WR, WSH: $4,200
This is a dart throw, but it’s an intriguing one because of the cheaper price point. Brown hauled in two of his three targets for 51 yards against the Eagles, and the Bears’ secondary should allow opportunities.
The issue is McLaurin, Dotson and Curtis Samuel are likely to soak up most of that playing time, but I could see a similar yardage total for Brown as that fourth option. It’s worth a shot if you need to spread out the cash in DFS.
Cairo Santos, K, CHI: $6,900
Yep, a kicker. No team has given up more points to kickers this season than the Commanders. They’ve allowed 12 field goals and 10 extra points over the first four games. Chicago should be able to move the ball between the 20s, but it’s very easy to picture drives stalling out thanks in large part to sacks, and that could lead to some longer field-goal chances for Santos.
If you can use Santos as a flex play, it does make some sense. We promise we’ll do our best to not say nice things about kickers through the rest of the year.
Prediction
At some point, the Bears will win. It should have been Sunday against Denver except for late gaffes from Fields, the defense and the offensive line. Chicago could beat a mediocre Washington team that has just as many questions as it does answers, if not more. I’m just not willing to bet on it. Not yet anyway.
Week 5 is the season’s first bye week, which means our DFS options are slightly limited by the absence of Browns, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Chargers players. But we don’t need them to build successful stacks -- especially not the Browns. The theory behind stacking players is that by putting correlated players into your lineup, you only need one event to ‘hit’ to be a success.
It’s like double dipping in the guacamole at your favorite Mexican restaurant -- except significantly less gross. Let’s double dip together as we go through three of the best Week 5 stacks.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals
Joshua Dobbs ($5200 DraftKings, $6600 FanDuel)
Zach Ertz ($3500 DraftKings, $5100 FanDuel)
Since Week 2, Dobbs has averaged over one passing TD per game, throwing no interceptions and finishing as a top-8 fantasy QB twice. The matchup against the Bengals isn’t frightening either, as far as opposing defenses go. While the Cardinals were believed to be tanking, they clearly want to win. I’m not sure I’ve ever watched a scrappier football team than these Cardinals, and I expect them to find a way to stay in this against a hobbled Bengals team.
Zach Ertz has seen double-digit targets in half of the games so far this season and 8-plus in three of four. He’s yet to find the end zone, but that could be this weekend. You’re not sacrificing upside with this stack, but you are saving a ton of money to use elsewhere.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings
Patrick Mahomes ($8200 DraftKings, $9200 FanDuel)
Travis Kelce ($7600 DraftKings, $8789 FanDuel)
Isiah Pacheco ($5700 DraftKings, $6600 FanDuel)
Yeah, I know. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce is pretty freaking basic, but they are, uh, really good. The Chiefs will wallop the Minnesota Vikings. The total is 52.5, the highest of any Week 5 game.
You’re spending big here, but we’re expecting big points. I like adding Pacheco after a big Week 4. The Chiefs will roll, which could mean another big day for Pacheco. If you really feel like spending all your money up top, add Justin Jefferson on the other side of this game.
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos
Zach Wilson ($4900 DraftKings, $6700 FanDuel)
Garrett Wilson ($6000 DraftKings, $7400 FanDuel)
I saved this one for last, so you wouldn’t stop reading after seeing Zach Wilson’s name. I know it seems like chasing points after the best game of his career, but there is more at play here.
Let’s build context around the situation. Wilson gets drafted second overall and then fails spectacularly over his first two seasons, to the point that he gets benched for Mike White. The Jets all but give up on him as a starter by trading for Aaron Rodgers. The entire offseason is spent building an offense for Rodgers, not for Zach Wilson. Then BAM, Week 1 he’s thrown into action unprepared, and it showed.
My point is that what we saw could be the best game Zach Wilson plays in his career OR we could be seeing a third-year QB taking a step forward after a couple of unexpected starts. Add to that a Broncos defense that has been porous and you’ve got a hot and very affordable stack in the Wilsons of New York in Week 5.
Here are our 9-cat Fantasy NBA Rankings for the 2023-24 season. Nine categories take into consideration points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3-pointers, field goal percentage, free throw percentage and turnovers. These rankings can also be loosely used for other scoring systems.
In a points league, poor free throw shooters, like Giannis Antetokounmpo, and high turnover players (most of the high-volume scorers) can be given a boost as those categories don't really matter in that format. And if you play in an 8-cat league, eliminating the turnovers also gives a little more value to those high-volume scorers.
Raise your hand if you knew both Alvin Kamara and Jake Ferguson were going to be top 10 plays at their respective positions in fantasy in Week 4.
Now, raise your other hand if you knew Joe Burrow, Joshua Palmer, Tank Dell, and Roschon Johnson were going to combine for 21.8 PPR points -- COMBINED In Week 4?! Not my best advice.
All jokes aside, if you read my Week 4 ‘Bargain Bin’ column, chances are you probably started at least one of the six aforementioned players. Looking to get ahead of the game for Week 5 before your friends do? Never fear, Steezy A is here. (all salaries are courtesy of DraftKings).
QB: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams ($5,600, QB18 at cost)
Falling outside of the top 15 in salary, yet ownership percentage at (6%) is within the top 7 at his position? Didn’t they always say great minds think alike?
While it isn’t official whether or not Cooper Kupp returns to action in Week 5, what IS official is that the LA Rams are 13th in the NFL in scoring at 24.5 entering Week 5. That has been without the stud wideout.
Want to know what else is official? The Philadelphia Eagles have been one of the friendliest defenses to opposing quarterbacks in fantasy land this season. Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, and Sam Howell can all attest.
Don’t believe me? I guess that explains why Philadelphia is ranked 27th against the pass.
Enter Matthew Stafford, who's thrown for 300 or more yards in three out of his four games played this season so far. The touchdowns haven’t been there, but Kupp’s imminent return should change the calculus there sooner rather than later.
One of two matchups on the Week 5 slate with a total north of 50 (50.5), you can expect a lot of points, yards, and fantasy points from Rams and Eagles players alike.
But especially Stafford. Start Stafford in Week 5.
RB: Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders ($5,600, RB23 at cost)
I know, I know - Brian Robinson Jr plays tomorrow so technically I don’t have a RB for you guys to ‘bargain’ hunt for Sunday’s slate of games, but Robinson’s price tag is intriguing enough to where I’d highly suggest curating lineups for ‘Thursday Night Football’ just because of him.
That said, Robinson has an incredible matchup on deck against the Chicago Bears, who have allowed RBs to feast since the season began. That list of players includes Aaron Jones (26.7 PPR points in Week 1), Rachaad White (21.3 PPR points in Week 2), 28.5 PPR points to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco in Week 3, and 19.4 points to Jaleel McLaughlin in Week 4.
‘Thursday Night Football’ matchups usually favor the home team and especially more so if they’re able to run the football. As -6-point favorites, game script could also be in Robinson’s favor if things play out how they’re supposed to on ‘TNF’.
As the 8th-ranked RB (on the season so far) in standard PPR scoring formats, Robinson’s floor and ceiling in Week 5 looks like that of a promising RB2.
WR: Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers ($5,100, WR34 at cost)
Averaging 22.36 points per game in his last three games, Adam Thielen is playing like a man possessed.
WR10 on the season entering Week 5, Thielen has had 8 or more targets and 7 or more receptions in every game since Week 1.
Clearly having found his groove with a young Panthers team after a less-than-ideal Week 1 (2 receptions for 12 yards), the 33-year-old veteran WR belongs in all lineups as a WR3/flex option at the very least.
One of two winless teams remaining, the Panthers are +9-point underdogs (DraftKings) entering Week 5’s showdown with the Lions.
Given that the Panthers are likely to find themselves playing catchup against a much superior team, the stage is set for Thielen to continue his impressive season.
It also doesn’t hurt that Thielen has a TON of experience playing against the Lions, dating back to his Viking days (in two games against the Lions last season, Thielen amassed 13 receptions, 126 receiving yards, and two touchdowns).
WR: Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders ($5,400, WR29 at cost)
Another Commander, another ‘TNF’ player, and one less receiver to use in your Sunday lineups if you like to bargain shop.
Am I sorry? Not really, but if you adhere to what I was saying earlier about constructing a Thursday night lineup, that should more than make up for it.
Now, on to the man they call ‘Scary Terry: coming off a season-best performance against the Philadelphia Eagles last week in which he totaled 8 receptions for 86 yards McLaurin seems to be 100% behind the turf toe injury that hampered him in the preseason and carried into the beginning of the regular season.
That said, Terry is due for his best statistical performance of the season yet.
Vulnerable would be too generous a word to describe the Chicago Bears secondary, who sit at 29th in the NFL in passing yards allowed (on average) at 267.8 entering Week 5.
I expect Terry to eclipse 100+ receiving yards and perform more in line of that of a WR2 this week.
TE: Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals ($3,500, TE16 at cost)
To preface, the Arizona Cardinals are 1-3 on the season entering Week 5. In those losses, Zach Ertz has averaged 9.3 targets and about 43.3 receiving yards per game. In Arizona’s lone victory of the season, Ertz had season-lows across the board (2 targets, 2 receptions, and 6 receiving yards).
As 3-point underdogs at home to the ailing Cincinnati Bengals, the good news (for Ertz owners) is that the Cardinals are expected to lose. As I outlined for you above, Ertz does more statistically when AZ loses and while that has a lot to do with gameplan and game flow, I expect both to be in favor of Ertz as far as his fantasy value in Week 5.
Second on the team in targets with 30 (behind Hollywood Brown’s 32) on the season so far, Ertz’ chemistry with QB Joshua Dobbs has been evident and that should continue against the Bengals.
FLEX: Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos ($5,000, RB35 at cost)
Believe me when I say this, but I was on the Puka Nacua hype train before it truly took off, and the reason I say this is because he was the first ‘Bonus/Flex’ play I used when I started writing this bargain bin column and I just get this feeling about McLaughlin like he’s the next big thing to come out of the waiver wire.
While fellow running back Javonte Williams isn’t expected to miss much if ‘any’ time following a hip flexor injury, I’m not going to let Williams’ status damper my thoughts on McLaughlin, who finished as the RB10 in fantasy this past week (standard PPR scoring formats).
Having looked like the Broncos’ most explosive back on the season, McLaughlin was receiving hype all throughout training camp and now we’re all starting to see why.
Despite playing less than Samaje Perine in Week 4, Jaleel compiled a far more impressive stat line, racking up 7 rushes for 72 rushing yards and contributing in the pass game as well with 3 catches for 32 yards and a receiving touchdown.
Yes, the Broncos backfield is getting messy by the week with the emergence of yet another option in McLaughlin, but he’s certainly made the most of his opportunity and you know what it is by now with these rookie running backs.
Grab McLaughlin while you can and if you’re looking for the dart throw of dart throws, look no further than the Youngstown State product.
Last week was a MASSIVE win at the Tight End position, after the late week pivot to Mark Andrews as TE1. Coming into the Week, Andrews was TE5 due to a notoriously difficult matchup with Cleveland. But sometimes as the week goes, things just don’t make sense/compute in your head and you have to lean on what you know and what you’ve seen. What we have seen, is Lamar Jackson finding his favorite target when he needs him and when he wants him. Lamar had 2 rushing touchdowns in the first half, and just 8 pass attempts before the 2-minute warning of the 2nd quarter. He then reeled off 6 in the final 2 minutes, with an Andrews touchdown just before halftime, to give Baltimore a 21-3 lead.
Keep a keen eye on and be careful starting Chig Okonkwo, Dallas Goedert, Logan Thomas and Dawson Knox. Instead, trust Noah Fant, AGAIN, who is cheap and attainable EVERYWHERE. And finally, Andrew Ogletree who Indianapolis is telling us, matters. Ogletree missed Week 2, but over the last two week shis snap share went from 0 to 33 and finally 44% in Week 4, while Mo Alie-Cox dropped down to 27%. Ogletree is 6’5, 261lbs with a 72nd percentile speed and burst score.
My favorite game in Week 5 will be on Monday night, when the Green Bay Packers play in Las Vegas against Davante Adams and the Raiders. Adams is currently tied for third in the NFL with 33 receptions, including 3 touchdowns. Romeo Doubs has three top-20 finishes so far, but Christian Watson returned from injury in Week 4, playing just 46% of snaps.
One can expect Watson’s presence to jump into the 80% snap area, causing the Raiders to focus on two outside stretch receivers, along with inside gadget guy Jayden Reed. Between the Raiders and Packers, I have five MNF receivers ranked in the Top 45.
Adam Thielen returned a favor in Week 3, finishing as WR20 once again, his third consecutive inside the Top 24. Wan’Dale Robinson is a guy we are continuing to watch and key on in New York. In Week 3 he finished with 5 targets on a 22% snap share, and on Monday Night Football his snap share climbed to 64% as well as a “double down” with 6 targets, with 5 receptions and 40 yards.
Stay ahead of your league-mates and keep adding Wan’Dale as a depth piece. His snap share has risen from 0 to 22 and 64, while teammate Parris Campbell has dropped from 66 to 42 and down to 31% in Week 4.
Sleepers to target in Week 5 consist of Jerry Jeudy who has yet to crest the top 30 in any week, despite seeing 5+ targets in each of his first 3 games. Down the line is 38, Josh Reynolds, who will be overshadowed by the newsworthy return of Jameson Williams, who has never crested a 25% snap share and has one career catch.
Last but not least, it’s finally, FINALLY a Rondale Moore week.
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