%20(Instagram%20Post)%20(Presentation)%202.png)
An optimizer is a powerful tool to harness in DFS play, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. Like any other tool, one must first learn how to wield an optimizer before its true power can be realized.
That is exactly what we will look to sort through in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Contrarian Edge Optimizer use at Fantasy Sports Logic for the Monday slates each week of the 2023 season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the newest, and most dynamic, optimizer in the industry.
Monday Night Football Doubleheader
Most of the articles in this series will cover Showdown slates while we explore Monday Night Football slates. This week, however, we have a Monday Night Football doubleheader on the docket – Eagles at Buccaneers and Rams at Bengals – that will allow us to explore more of the full range of tools at our disposal through the Contrarian Edge Optimizer.
First Look
Open the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, select the slate for which you want to build, and run the optimizer. Don’t touch a single thing. Now analyze the rosters that are provided. The first roster that is generated through the blended methodologies for the Monday slate includes Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Joe Mixon, Chris Godwin, Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Evans, Cade Otton, Puka Nacua, and the Bengals defense.
This practice will allow you to get a feel for the various projections from around the industry in addition to seeing how those pieces fit together optimally on a single roster.
In other words, simply running the optimizer without manipulating inputs gives insight into expected field tendencies, how salaries fit together on a roster, and the strongest median projection for a give slate.
Leveraged Uncertainty
Now, remove Joe Burrow from the player pool, apply a 20 percent decrease to Bengals skill position players, add Jake Browning to the player pool, and run it again. You can now visualize how the status of Joe Burrow might influence the median outcomes from the slate ahead.
You can even go as far as excluding the Bengals entirely, providing a boost to the Rams defense, and running it again. That returns a roster of Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, Mike Evans, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Cade Otton, Chris Godwin, and the Eagles defense. As you can see, the return is vastly different than the original roster returned.
DFS Theory
There are certain aspects of profitable DFS play that professionals utilize at a higher rate than the field. The reasons for these practices have to do with historical hit rates versus utilization rate from the field.
A few examples of these practices include team over-stacks, QB-RB-TE correlations, and onslaught rosters (rosters with three to four players from one roster and zero or one from the opposing side).
These practices build inherent leverage in rosters as they historically hit at a rate higher than they are utilized by the field.
• Over 70 percent of the optimal rosters over the previous three seasons did not include a correlated bring-back.
• 22 percent of the optimal rosters over the previous three seasons included a QB-TE correlation.
• 18 percent of the optimal rosters over the previous three seasons included the primary stack’s running back.
And yet, the field is not utilizing these practices at those historical hit rates.
To influence the algorithm in those ways, select “Pro Options,” toggle “Auto Team Stacking Bonus” and “By Position,” bump “QB-TE,” “QB-WR,” and “QB-RB,” and generate lineups. You’ll see the algorithm now account for heavier correlation amongst quarterbacks, tight ends, wide receivers, and their running backs, which provides the leverage we are looking for through these DFS Theory methodologies.
The algorithm now returns Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Tyler Higbee rosters. As you can see, all the previously mentioned DFS Theory practices are being accounted for by the Contrarian Edge Optimizer.
Player Lock/Exclude
Feeling higher or lower about a player than the field and want to overweight or exclude them from your pool? Simply select the “lock” button or “exclude” (red circle with line through) button next to a player’s name and run the optimizer again.
As an example, in the Sunday Night Football game, the Pittsburgh Steelers had only four healthy wide receivers and it was clear that Allen Robinson would be largely confined to slot snaps, leaving Calvin Austin to play most of the offensive snaps on the perimeter alongside George Pickens.
I locked Austin into every roster and ran the optimizer. Similarly, amidst poor efficiency and growing concerns of Jaylen Warren’s increased involvement, I excluded Najee Harris from my player pool.
As you can see, the Contrarian Edge Optimizer is an invaluable tool to building bulk rosters for DFS play. To best harness its abilities, we must first have a working knowledge of the varying options to utilize as inputs in addition to a theoretical and conceptual working knowledge of the game of NFL DFS. This article series will attempt to further our understanding in both those areas throughout the season.
.svg){kind=icon}
.svg){kind=icon}