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Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith
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Check out Tom's take on PrizePicks and Underdogs
Thursday provides an abbreviated MLB slate of games. Among them the Yankees and Red Sox will have another day-night doubleheader and the Rays and Orioles will battle it out for AL East dominance on FOX. With sportsbooks focused on sharp lines for Thursday Night Football, we’re jumping on some good numbers on PrizePicks and Underdog.
This has been one of my favorite picks to turn to this season. They keep giving us 17.5 or lower on Kelly and we keep taking it. He has gone at least six innings in 17 of 25 starts since April. He has struggled a bit of late on the road against the Dodgers and Padres, but the Mets lineup has been terrible at Citi Field. They have the third-lowest batting average of any team at home this season at .234.
Yastrzemski has been on fire in September. He has MLB’s 10th-highest average at .387. He has solid numbers against Rockies starting pitcher Chase Anderson, going 3 for 7 with 2 doubles. Oddly, he’s yet to record a hit at Coors Field in his young career but I expect that to change tonight. Anderson has allowed an opponent batting average of .310 since joining the Rockies in May.
The rookie might be the difference-maker the Orioles need down the stretch to claim the AL East title. He has the fourth most total bases over the last two weeks and the sixth most over the past month.
But he has yet to face starter Aaron Civale, who has been decent since joining the Rays but has struggled in two starts in September with a 6.10 ERA. Henderson has at least two total bases in nine of 12 games in September.
This one is simple. Webb has been excellent this season for the Giants. He has had at least five strikeouts in 22 of 30 starts. The Rockies have the third most strikeouts of any team since the All-Star break. Webb has shut down this Rockies lineup throwing 20.1 innings with 17 K’s and to the tune of a 1.77 ERA.
The Pirates and Reynolds will square off with righty Josiah Gray of the Nationals. Reynolds is 3 for 5 in his career with a .667 wOBA versus Gray. He has a single in 11 of 12 games in the month of September. He sees the ball better in day games with a .282 average versus night where he hits .266.
Devers is that dude when he goes up against the Yankees. This season, he’s hitting .410 versus Yankee pitchers in 39 at-bats with 5 homers. He rakes during day games batting .307. He goes up against Michael King in Game 1 of today’s doubleheader. He’s 4 for 6 in his career against King with 2 homeruns. We can count on Devers to stay hot.
Three games headline Week 2 stack highlights
Tua and Tyreek headlined Week 1 in the high scoring affair against the Chargers, but who will be the duo or trio to rack it up in Week 2? Each week we will explore the best stack options for you to bring down that GPP.
Week 1 went about as poorly as you could have written it up for this duo, but it’s redemption time, baby! Higgins had zero fantasy points off eight targets from Burrow. Going against an already-beat up Ravens secondary provides the perfect opportunity for a bounce-back.
The Bengals are slightly favored, but I think the Ravens keep it close. If you’re feeling feisty, Zay Flowers’ salary is only $5000 on Draftkings ($6600 on FanDuel) to grab a piece on the other side of this game.
With projected ownership of Herbert at 1.3% this week on FanDuel (8.8% on DraftKings), you can get contrarian without getting crazy. Shoutout to Fantasy Sports Logic’s Contrarian Edge Optimizer for identifying this anomaly in ownership percentage for what I view as one of the best stacks of the weekend.
The Titans may look scary up front, but that fear dissipates when you look at their weak secondary. With RB Austin Ekeler banged up, the Chargers are likely to depend on Justin Herbert’s arm more than usual. Add in the struggles the Titans have against the pass and we have ourselves a recipe for points galore.
Sitting at a 51.5 total, this is “the game of the week”, like the Dolphins-Chargers was last week. Sometimes you don’t have to get too creative when looking for a stack, the creativity can come elsewhere in your lineup.
We have a game with the highest projected point total of the week, a discount on Trevor Lawrence compared to other top pass catching options, and one week of evidence that Ridley IS THAT DUDE still. Throw Kelce in there and find some contrarian plays to fill out the rest of your lineup.
All you need to know about your lineup construction
As par for the course, Thursday’s slate is small -- four games, with the Yankees vs. Red Sox available for DraftKings in the second half of their doubleheader.
There is a chance of showers in the Denver area, but nothing seems like a washout. The other games should be good to go.
Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles 1B -- Mountcastle injured his shoulder at the plate Wednesday and was removed in the third inning. He is set to undergo imaging prior to Thursday’s pivotal contest against the Rays. Heston Kjerstad is expected to be called up from Triple-A Norfolk so it appears Mountcastle will be unavailable.
Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays RHP – Gausman’s second half production has been more up and down than his first. Since August 3, Gausman has a 3.86 ERA, 20 percent K/BB ratio, and a 3-3 record. He has only pitched into seven or more innings twice and has stumbled against the Nationals and Rockies. He faces a tough matchup against the Rangers in a must-win game and his price point ($11,000 DK/ $10,300 FD) is a bit too high for my tastes.
Logan Webb, Giants RHP – Webb and the Giants make the trek up the mountains to face the Rockies at Coors Field. It seems odd to recommend a pitcher in Denver but the Rockies offense has been horrendous over the late month --.250/.319/.412 with an 83 wRC. That’s the fifth-worst offense in baseball over that time span.
Webb has been as reliable as they come, with a 3.40 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 3.21 SIERA to pair with a 19 percent K/BB ratio. He just surpassed his 2022 innings total and Giants manager Gabr Kapler lets him go deep into the game, if the 26-year-old is pitching well.
José Ureña is the pitcher I am targeting. His 8.46 ERA, 6.62 SIERA, and 2.10 WHIP is too juicy to pass up. Max Kepler has been on fire since the All-Star break, hitting .299/.365/.561 with 10 of his 22 homers over that span. Due to his production, he has been moved up to hitting cleanup and is sandwiched in the middle of Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa.
Ranger (Nathan Eovaldi) vs. Blue Jays:
Since returning from the injured list, Eovaldi hasn’t gone more than 2 1/3 innings and it is still up in the air if he is fully healthy. Springer is hitting .275/.368/.484 with five homers over the last 30 days and should be able to get to either Eovaldi or the Rangers bullpen.
Schneider has taken the majors by storm, and not because of his 1970s Cop movie mustache. He has been the best hitter on the Blue Jays over the last month, hitting .333/.467/.817 with six homers across 75 plate appearances. Since Danny Jansen’s unfortunate injury, Alejandro Kirk has received the bulk of the playing time behind the dish and could pay off at a lower price point.
Twins vs. White Sox (José Ureña)
Ureña has been dreadful, and the Twins should be able to capitalize on the Southside of Chicago. Kirilloff returned from the injured list last week and has hit extremely well against right-handers. Thursday could be the night he breaks out of his funk.
Castro also recently returned to the Twins starting lineup. He's had an amazing first season with the Twins this year, hitting .252/.329/.400 with seven homers and 31 stolen bases. He typically hits around seventh in the batting order but could provide points juice at a low price point.
Cody Carpentier ranks tight ends for Week 2
The golden nugget of my offseason was going to the Carolina Panthers training camp and laying eyes on the soon to be target leader for Bryce Young. Hayden Hurst made his return to Atlanta in Week 1 and did so in true leader fashion, finishing as TE2.
Hurst is no longer a sleeper, he is “the guy”, just as Frank Reich warned us he would be back in August. Although Carolina has the most difficult matchup at tight end in Week 2 -- with New Orleans -- Hurst is still a viable start in fantasy football. He is the top target on a team depleted of true veteran talent.
Cody's Rankings for Week 2:
Week 2 bounce-backs at TE belong to Darren Waller and Gerald Everett. Waller and the Giants were shut out at home against the Dallas Cowboys. In 2022, Waller finished as TE2 while playing the Arizona Cardinals while on the Las Vegas Raiders.
Despite the blowout loss on Sunday night, Waller tied Darius Slayton for the team-lead of five targets.
Cody Carpentier ranks the WRs for Week 2
After an eventful Week 1 from the Dolphins and Chargers, I am most intrigued to continue to watch the super-nova that is Miami’s Tyreek Hill. His ability to get in and out of breaks in routes, which I don’t understand due to his lack of crisp route running, can only be explained as a “bend” in the route.
General route-running savants take aggressive cuts at the top of a route, whereas Hill just bends them, or cuts them short. But his sheer speed and explosion in those “bends” allows him to create upwards of six yards of separation on short inside slant routes.
If Hill and Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy, there is a near 100% chance that Hill surpasses his preseason goal of 2,000 receiving yards.
Cody's Rankings for Week 2:
My favorite sleeper is the Texans’ Tank Dell. He was a sweetheart at the 2023 Reeces Senior Bowl, skating across the field with ease and separation. In Week 1, he and Noah Brown tied for third on the Texans with four catches each.
With Brown now on the IR, the door is open for Dell. Throughout training camp, analysts with boots on the ground in Houston called him “unguardable” and “the best” receiver on the team, while quarterback C.J. Stroud said he was his “favorite” target.
Cody Carpentier ranks the RBs for Week 2
Let’s do it again – McCaffrey, McCaffrey, McCaffrey. if Christian McCaffrey is healthy, it will be difficult to assume anything less than a weekly top three finish in fantasy points on the 49ers. This is what we said for Week 1 -- a week of tough predictions, and McCaffrey was one of five running backs we projected to finish in the Top 10, who did.
Two rookie RBs finished in the top 10 in fantasy points after Week 1 – the Falcons’ Bijan Robinson (RB7) and former college teammate Roschon Johnson (RB8).
Cody's Rankings for Week 2:
The majority of Johnson’s work came in the fourth quarter while Chicago was clawing to come back against Green Bay, but Johnson made play after play in the passing and running game. Expect to see his role grow in coming weeks as Chicago struggles to score points in a miserable NFC North.
Cody Carpentier ranks fantasy QBs for Week 2
Jalen Hurts disappointed in Week 1 for fantasy managers, who expect a top-5 finish week in and week out. Hurts finished as the QB19 after completing 66% of his passes for only 170 yards and running nine times for an abysmal 37 yards.
In Week 2, Hurts plays on Thursday night against the Minnesota Vikings, a team that in Week 1 couldn’t slow down Baker Mayfield and the new look Buccaneers. Mayfield had two passing touchdowns and nearly a 100 QB Rating.
In 2022, Hurts and the Eagles defeated Minnesota 24-7 in Week 2. He finished with 333 passing yards and two rushing touchdowns. He and the Eagles should continue that success in their 2023 home opener.
Last week, people looked past the flaws on Geno Smith’s 2022 stat sheet -- the dip in completion percentage down the 63% over the last five games and winning just two of five.
Cody's Rankings for Week 2:
We told you to be careful, because “The Rams are coming to play football on Sunday in Seattle.” Los Angeles not only came to play, but they walked the dog as well, outsourcing Seattle 23-0 in the second half and walking away with a big divisional win.
Continue to start Anthony Richardson with confidence if you drafted him as your QB1. Despite a loss to the Jaguars in Week 1, Richardson showed extreme promise with a whopping 37 pass attempts, of which he completed 65%. Richardson threw the ball more than 37 times, just three times while at Florida.
Steezy's Bargain Bin: Great players, great prices
Wow, Week 1 was… bizarre -- to say the least. I don’t think I’ve ever finished with a worse ‘Pick ‘Em’ correct percentage than what I posted in any Week 1 before -- 50%.
Could the games have been scripted any crazier? Every single primetime game happened the exact opposite of what I and many others had forecasted.
Don’t worry, I’m not here to rant about my miscues, rather I’m here to be your version of Grocery Outlet, DFS style! (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel)
Having played six games so far in calendar year 2023 -- two regular season games and three playoff games -- Purdy has thrown only one interception. As efficient as it gets, I’m baffled Purdy is so cheap, given the plethora of weapons in his arsenal.
You can do a lot worse than Purdy as your starting QB, both in real life and in fantasy. He doesn’t have the highest upside, but his floor is stable enough to warrant starting consideration just about every week. Until I see him not perform, he’s a QB I love moving forward.
After having been held out of Week 1 (arm), Moss is expected to give it a go in Week 2 in Houston vs the Texans. With Jonathan Taylor still on the PUP list and rookie RB Evan Hull having been recently placed on IR (knee), this Colts backfield is ripe for the taking for Moss.
I’m worried about Deon Jackson’s ghastly Week 1 – 18 touches for 28 scrimmage yards and two lost fumbles. Moss averaged 83.5 rushing yards per game -- on 4.8 yards per carry -- in the last four games last season.
In a divisional matchup where Moss’ only competition for touches (goal-line included) is an already-banged up QB Anthony Richardson, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Moss rush for more than 100 yards in his first game back.
The memes about Toney’s hands (or lack thereof) have been hilarious, but let’s take a deeper dive into the numbers. He was targeted on 50% of his routes while only playng 26% of the snaps. He also tied for the team lead in targets with five.
People forget, he missed essentially all of training camp and the preseason because of a torn meniscus, so rust and a lack of rhythm was definitely a factor. Add in that Travis Kelce is likely to play Week 2 against the Jaguars, and there will be less attention on Toney in what is expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week.
Everyone’s down on Toney, but here’s your chance to come up with a potential steal, given his measly price point.
MT is back, baby! Perhaps FanDuel hasn’t caught on yet. C’mon y’all -- WR52? I know, I know. It’s just one game. But five receptions (on eight targets) for 61 yards in his first game back?
Clearly, the new Saints offense can support multiple pass catchers in fantasy, perhaps three given the emergence of Rashid Shaheed, and Thomas will benefit from that.
In a divisional matchup against the Carolina Panthers who’ll be missing promising young cornerback Jaycee Horn, I wouldn’t be surprised if Thomas clears 100 yards and puts up a vintage performance. He’ll only continue to earn Derek Carr’s trust throughout the season, and he will also have Chris Olave soaking up attention. Don’t be surprised if you find him in another one of these articles down the line.
As the season goes along, don’t be surprised if LaPorta ends up becoming a backend TE1. His usage in Week 1, along with his talent, supports that notion, even if the sample size is less than ideal.
As a guy who covers the Seattle Seahawks, I know how vulnerable Seattle can be in the middle of the field in defending the pass (and especially tight ends), and that’s where LaPorta will contribute for the Lions. In another matchup that’s expected to fill up the scoreboard, LaPorta is an absolute bargain as the TE20.
Look, I get it. Two receptions for 25 yards isn’t an ideal start to the season, but let’s not forget Moore had to go up against one of the best cornerbacks in all of football in Jaire Alexander of the Green Bay Packers.
That Bears offense was a mess, but the cheeseheads also boast one of the better units in the league, so take Moore’s Week 1’s performance with a grain of salt.
While I don’t want this to come off as downplaying their opponent -- the Buccaneers also boast a very athletic and nasty defense -- Tampa Bay doesn’t have a Jaire Alexander on the other side of the ball.
In addition, Moore has plenty of history going up against the Bucs, with and without Tom Brady, dating back to his time with the Carolina Panthers. Just last season alone, Moore compiled 13 receptions (on 20 targets) for 186 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in two games against the Bucs. I expect him to bounce back. More Moore, please!
Find out who might be great pitchers, hitters for your lineups
It’s an ideal day for stacking some baseball matchups out west whether you’re playing the early slate or the main one later tonight.
In the early contest, both sides of the Cubs and Rockies matchup are intriguing with the Rockies sending Ty Blach to the mound and the Cubs attempting to counter with Jameson Taillon.
Blach is coming off back-to-back starts where he’s struggled giving up five and four runs respectively. Jameson Taillon has been up and down all season. He’s coming off one of his best starts of the season against the Diamondbacks, but since Aug. 1 he has a 4.87 ERA and has been averaging 2.03 HR/9 innings. It could be a rough day for Taillon at Coors.
The Cubs have been slightly above average against left-handed pitchers this year with a team wRC+ of 103 and a few of their hitters have really done damage against southpaws at Coors.
Cody Bellinger ($6700/$4600)* is slashing .347/.396/.607 with nine home runs and 31 RBI against lefties. Christopher Morel ($5600/$3700) has a 466-foot home run in this series and six of his 22 bombs have been hit off lefties. He’s got a wRC+ of 120 against them.
Seiya Suzuki ($4600/$3500) has a wRC+ of 215 over the last two weeks, and even with his earlier struggles he’s above average against lefties (286/.345/.429) with a 110 wRC+.
If you’re looking for a cheap option at catcher, Yan Gomes ($3900/$3000) has been above average against lefties this season batting .281/.310/.488 with a wRC+ of 110 this season.
On the other side of that game, stacking Rockies against Taillon also makes a ton of sense. Kris Bryant ($4400/$2500) was the hero Tuesday with his ninth home run of the season to push the Rockies ahead of the Cubs.
At catcher, Elias Díaz ($4000/$3200) has been excellent at Coors at .282/.321/.454. Outfielder Nolan Jones ($4900/$4000) has been excellent since Aug. 1, slashing .279/.358/.529 with six home runs and Charlie Blackmon ($4500/$3400) is also an enticing outfield play. He’s batting leadoff and hitting .299/.390/.497 at home this season.
It’s worth staying out west for the main slate later. The Astros are a must stack against Paul Blackburn and the Oakland Athletics. José Altuve ($6400/$4200) has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball with six home runs and a wRC+ of 175 over the last two weeks.
Yordan Alvarez ($6100/$4100) has been even better – .342/.519/.605 with a wRC+ of 211 during that period. Add him to your outfield along with one of Kyle Tucker ($5700/$3800) or Chas McCormick ($4400/$3500).
You’ll want to balance out the pricey Astros stack with a more cost-effective option, and the Contrarian Edge Optimizer likes either side of the Royals lineup as an additional stack, Tim Anderson ($3300/$2400) at shortstop or Maikel Garcia ($3900/$2800) at third base both offer intriguing options there.
On the pitching side of the early matchups, Luis Castillo ($10800/$10800) has been excellent in a year where even the best starting pitchers have had struggles. He’s got 16 quality starts and faces a depleted Angels lineup that has been without Shohei Ohtani since Sept. 3. The Optimizer also likes Logan Allen ($8500/$8700) as a less expensive option. Allen will face a Giants lineup that has been slightly below average against lefties.
For the main slate take a look at Zac Gallen ($9800/$10600) against the Mets. He's coming off his best start of the season, throwing nine scoreless innings against the Cubs at Wrigley. Tonight, he’ll take those skills to a good pitching park at Citi Field against a young Mets team that is intriguing but has a lot of swing and miss amongst their rookies.
*Prices in parentheses are (Draft Kings/FanDuel) throughout.
Chris Crawford gives his take on today's Underdogs and PrizePicks
We’re getting closer to the postseason, but there still are fun over/unders to hit in the regular season with a strong slate available Wednesday.
Spencer Strider, Braves RHP: 8.0 strikeouts -- Over (PrizePicks)
Strider gave up 10 runs in his last two outings and went only 2 2/3 innings against the Cardinals. He had been fantastic before that, however, and prior to Wednesday’s clunker he had struck out at least nine hitters in three straight contests. Philadelphia is talented, but has plenty of hitters who can swing and miss. It’s risky for a number this high, but I’ll bet on Strider getting back into double digits today.
Ronald Acuña, Braves OF: 1.5 Total Bases -- Over (PrizePicks)
Would anyone be shocked if Acuña hit this total before the end of the first inning? He had another monster game Thursday with two homers against the Cardinals, and he’s already gone deep four times in the month of September. He’s also hitting just .214 in the month, but there’s simply too much talent -- and too much success -- to ever bet against Acuña reaching this total in 2023.
Jameson Taillon, Cubs RHP: 3 runs -- Over (Underdog)
Taillon is coming off his best start of the season -- and the best as a member of the Cubs -- with six scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks. He also has a 5.27 ERA on the season, and prior to his gem vs the Dbacks he had allowed at least four runs in five straight starts.
He’ll face a Colorado lineup that isn’t spectacular, but it’s at Coors Field, and everyone is well aware how hard it is to pitch there. It’s too hard to imagine Taillon having back-to-back strong starts based on what we’ve seen for the overwhelming majority his campaign.
Julio Rodriguez, Mariners OF: 9.5 fantasy points -- Over (Underdog)
After a sensational August that basically erased his early-season struggles, Rodriguez has been outstanding in September as well with a .300 average and .740 slugging percentage over his first 50 at-bats. He’ll go up against the Angels bullpen Wednesday -- a unit that does not rank among the best in baseball -- and it wouldn’t even be a surprise if he picked up two hits and drove in a few runs as the Mariners battle for a playoff spot.
Bo Bichette, Blue Jays SS: 1.5 total bases -- Over (PrizePicks)
Bichette came off the injured list Friday and got two hits against the Royals. Since then, he’s gone hitless in his next 11 at-bats. While some might find that concerning, it suggests to me the talented shortstop is due for a big day. He’s also slashed a strong .352/.400/.568 against left-handers, and Bichette will be squaring off against a southpaw in Jordan Montgomery and the Rangers on Wednesday. Simply put, this is too good of a player to believe he’ll stay down for long.
Nolan Arenado, Cardinals 3B + Adley Rutschman, Orioles C: 4.0 Hits+Runs+RBI – Over (PrizePicks)
We’re being optimists today and going over with every total. Rutschman and Arenado will face starting pitchers that inspire confidence, with the catcher squaring off against Drew Rom (7.79 ERA) and the third baseman seeing Kyle Gibson (5.12). It just takes one of these players having a big day to hit the over, but I’d bet on both hitters getting there in a game that could -- and should -- be a high-scoring affair.
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