Break out your broomsticks because we had a 3-0 sweep in last week’s article moving our season record to 6-3!
The ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ moved to 3-0 ATS this season with the Washington Commanders losing to the Philadelphia Eagles in overtime 34-31 as 9-point underdogs. New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr continued to play a week after an AC joint sprain and the offense could never get going as they lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-9 — covering the under 39.5 total points. Finally, the Tennessee Titans defense dominated the Cincinnati Bengals 27-3 as +2.5 underdogs.
In Week 5, here are the lines I am looking into:
‘Close Your Eyes Special’ – New Orleans Saints +1.5 @ New England Patriots
The Saints and the Patriots both met the ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ criteria -- underperforming the spread by 21 or more points in Week 4. The Saints, however, are the play here as an underdog. Everyone saw how rough the offense looked not scoring even a touchdown. But this week could be an easier matchup.
Realize this – the Patriots are really bad. They’re also significantly limited on defense with injuries to Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez — arguably their two best defenders. With another week of recovery and rehab for Carr, I expect to see this offense look a lot better in Alvin Kamara’s second game back this season.
‘Close Your Eyes Special’— Pittsburgh Steelers +4 vs Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers are back here in a familiar spot. They’ve been a ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ every other week. And once again, they are at home in a division game.
In preseason, this line was Ravens -1. After the Steelers’ lackluster start to the season the line jumped to Ravens -4. Mike Tomlin is 53-28-2 (65.4%) ATS as an underdog. He is also 16-5-3 (76.2%) ATS as a home underdog — including 2-0 ATS vs the Ravens as a home dog.
Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett suffered a bone bruise in the 30-6 loss to the Texans on Sunday, but he will practice this week and will be a game-time decision. After the start this offense has had this season, I don’t see much difference between Pickett and backup Mitchell Trubisky.
I think this will be another low scoring game in which the Steelers defense keeps them alive. The Ravens’ offense is going through a number of injuries that this defense will be able to exploit and create opportunities for the offense.
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos T: O43
This is going to be the Petty Bowl. In late July, new Broncos head coach Sean Payton referred to predecessor Nathaniel Hackett – now the Jets’ offensive coordinator – by saying the 2022 season “might have been one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL. That’s how bad it was.”
The Jets’ coaching staff and players rallied behind Hackett in response. Thus, I think this game is going to be an offensive explosion by both sides. Why? To be PETTYYYY.
There’s also the fact the Jets are 14th in opponent points per game (21) and the Broncos are last (37.5). Zach Wilson looked a lot better on Sunday Night Football and is growing in Hackett’s offense.
On the other hand, Russell Wilson has the Broncos’ offense 10th in scoring (25 ppg) despite the 1-4 record. Their defense has not done them any favors, so I am expecting to see a bunch points in this game.