Vegas Lines Analysis Week 7
Well, I have good news and bad news. The good news is we had another winning day as we finished 2-1 on last week’s article. The bad news is that the one loss was probably the worst beating of the season. The Patriots were down two and driving to try and win the game versus the Raiders. The absolute worst thing happened as the Patriots took a safety and failed to cover as three-point underdogs.
Nonetheless, we continue to do well in this article, so here are the lines I am looking into:
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants +2
As a Giants fan, this is a tough side to take. The Giants have been abysmal and devastated by injuries. Meanwhile the Commanders have been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde and haven't put together a run of good performances.
The Giants opened to begin the season as -2.5-point favorites and are currently 2-point home underdogs. However, this line does not take into account the Commanders' struggles. Last week, I mentioned how Sam Howell has not thrown interceptions in back-to-back games. Well, he also has not had back-to-back games without an interception.
This Giants defense has found ways in the past few games to really energize their defense. They have allowed less than 300 yards in two of the past three games and created five turnovers. I expect to see the defense get pressure and rattle Howell, who is the most sacked quarterback this season.
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts +2.5
The Browns are coming down from a major win as they gave the San Francisco 49ers their first loss of the season. Meanwhile, the Colts looked bad as they got swept by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Clearly, Cleveland looks like the better team, despite the questions at quarterback, but the line is telling a different story.
This line opened at Browns -3 and now it is Browns -2.5. This is alarming because over 80% of the bets and money are on Cleveland. We call this “reverse line movement” Now, ask yourself this — if everybody and their mom is running to bet the Browns then why would the sportsbooks lower the line. Why make it easier to bet the Browns when they are your biggest liability?
It’s because they know what I know that this is a good spot for the Colts. This Browns defense is a force, but this a huge letdown spot for the Browns after beating one of the top teams in the NFC without their starting quarterback.
But now, I think that offense will struggle with a Colts defense that is getting healthier and stronger. Shaq Leonard and Kwity Paye returned last week to give the defense a huge boost and they should be stronger this week. I expect to see a better version of Gardner Minshew at home than on the road — take the Colts to keep things close and potentially upset Cleveland.
San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings +7
This might have to be one of my favorite coach trends in the NFL. It may or may not be because it hit last week as well. After losing outright as 10-point favorites to the Browns, Kyle Shanahan moves to 1-6 ATS as a road favorite of seven or more points. In the previous six instances, Shanahan did win every game, but only covered one.
Consistently, Shanahan’s teams have been given too much credit on the road when playing an inferior opponent. And a Minnesota team without Justin Jefferson should pose no threat to a 49ers team looking to bounce back after their first lost.
However, every game this season for the Vikings has been a one-possession game. The most they won by is eight and the most they lost by is seven — exactly where this line is at.
The 49ers are potentially one of the best teams in the league, but Shanahan has struggled in these spots to cover the spread. And this Minnesota defense is attempting to come into their own. If Kirk Cousins can limit the turnovers versus this nasty 49er defense, then I think he can attack the middle of the field with TJ Hockenson and keep this game close.
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