October 24, 2023
NFL

Vegas Lines: Now 14-4 on the Season!

Davante, Vrabel and Tomlin are the ones to trust this time
Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Vegas Lines Analysis Week 8

“Get Paid” – Young Dolph (2015)

Because we finished another week with a 3-0 sweep, our season record is now 14-4 (78%)! Clearly, something is going right, so let’s keep it going. Here is what I am looking for this week in the NFL.

Close Your Eyes Special — Las Vegas Raiders +8 @ Detroit Lions

Welcome back, old friend. We missed you. I would take the week off as well after Mac Jones and the Patriots gave us our first ATS loss this season with a terrible bad beat. But now, we rebound.

I’m not going to sell it to you like this is a great bet. The Raiders could be starting Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. There is probably an even more likely chance that it is Brian Hoyer, who looked terrible last week vs the Bears. The Raiders are also on a back-to-back road spot, which is brutal in the NFL (remember this fact for later). And the Lions got beat so bad last week that if they were an underdog in this game, then they would also be a ‘Close Your Eyes Special’.

However, we must respect the CYE Special being 6-1 ATS. Also, we have Davante Adams returning to play the Lions. Despite being with a new team this time, Adams has had success at Detroit. In his last three games there, he averaged 7 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. I’m trusting the CYE Special again.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans +2.5

Now, I know some people are thinking, “No way am I trusting Malik Willis.”

Ryan Tannehill (ankle) got knocked out before the bye week during their game in London versus the Baltimore Ravens. This coaching staff has had two weeks to prepare Willis and themselves for a pretty big home game halfway through the season.

Meanwhile, Desmond Ridder is coming off of his first road win. But, at what cost, as Bijan Robinson is now expected to miss some time. This will also be Student vs. Master as Arthur Smith returns to Tennessee -- where he was offensive coordinator – as Falcons head coach.

This is a classic Mike Vrabel-as-a-home-underdog spot where nobody believes in the Titans, and he finds a way to get it done. Vrabel is 11-8-1 ATS as a home dog. Willis is actually 2-1 ATS as a starter under Vrabel as well. I’m going to trust the coaching staff not to ask Willis to do much and play good defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5

Here is another trend we will have to blindly trust because it is so good. Mike Tomlin is dominant as an underdog:

  • 72-44-4 (62%) as an underdog
  • 22-6-3 (79%) as a home underdog
  • 11-4 (73%) as a home underdog of less than three points

We could literally go all day here. This is a spot where you trust Tomlin. Add in that Matt Canada’s offensive looked competent with Dionte Johnson returning to the lineup. Kenny Pickett had issues with his receivers creating separation and getting open, but Johnson provides that safe option in the intermediate range that Pickett can go to.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are rightfully favored after winning four straight. But this is a back-to-back road spot for the Jaguars. In 2023, teams on the second leg of a back-to-back road spot are 9-16-1 ATS and 9-17 straight up. Very easy handicap here—we trust Tomlin (as an underdog).

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NBA Opening Week continues Thursday night, and we have two more games to select our Underdog and PrizePicks plays. The TNT doubleheader features two showdowns between four teams with championship aspirations.

The first game features an Eastern Conference clash as Giannis Antetokounmpo and his new teammate Damian Lillard battle reigning MVP Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers. The second matchup pegs the new-look Phoenix Suns against the Los Angeles Lakers in LA’s home opener.

Giannis Antetokounmpo 11.5 Rebounds (More) - PrizePicks

The Bucks were a juggernaut at home last season, going 32-8. Giannis just renewed his contract with the Bucks, and he will be on a revenge tour all season long. I believe he will push for league MVP once again.

He has gone over this number in 15 of his last 16 matchups with the 76ers! That’s an insane rate that we can’t ignore. The Bucks made the most significant move in the offseason when they acquired Lillard, but they didn’t add to its frontcourt.

Brook Lopez will defend Embiid often, which leaves Giannis free to gobble up the boards in the Bucks opener.

Tyrese Maxey 21.5 Points (More) – PrizePicks

Maxey is in for a massive increase in usage with James Harden out. Apparently, the Beard was ready to rejoin his teammates, but the team left him at home. His future is in limbo which is likely going to plague Philadelphia until it is resolved.

One thing we can rely on is Maxey will lead the 76ers alongside Joel Embiid. In his last three games against the Bucks, Maxey has gone over this number. Milwaukee traded its best defender Jrue Holiday during the summer.

In 14 games last season without Harden, Maxey surpassed this number nine times, and in two of the unders, he finished with 21.

I expect this to be a popular pick tonight, but I still like it.

Tyrese Maxey 3 Rebounds (Higher) - Underdog

I’m double dipping with Maxey, who is primed for a breakout season. Many experts have believed in his talent, but he’s been sort of stuck waiting in the wings throughout his first three seasons. The 76ers need him to be an All-Star caliber player if they want to be a contender, and I think he will be.

Without Harden on the floor, he reeled in at least four rebounds in seven of 14 games and in two of his last three games versus the Bucks. Milwaukee was in the bottom half of the NBA in rebounds allowed per game last season, and Maxey will see increased minutes this season.

This number seems a bit low with his projected increase in usage.

Joel Embiid 4.5 Assists (More) - PrizePicks

Speaking of an increase in usage. How about the reigning MVP? While I expect Maxey to take a huge leap, Embiid is the primary ball handler for the 76ers.

In his last 6 games against the Bucks, Embiid has produced at least 5 assists 5 times. He played 15 games last season without Harden. He had at least 5 assists in 12 of them. That’s an 80% hit rate on this line.

We can count on Embiid to play big minutes and go over the number as he kicks off his 2023 season.

Anthony Davis 23.5 Points (More) -PrizePicks

I’m going back to the well on Davis, who disappeared in the opener against the Nuggets. The Lakers need AD to lead the way this season. He is the focal point of this team.

Davis led the Lakers in shot attempts in their opener but shot a poor percentage and didn’t make a shot in the second half.

The Suns shipped out Deandre Ayton for Jusuf Nurkic in the summer, and Nurkic isn’t known for his defense. It’s not often I agree with Stephen A., but Davis is a rollercoaster, and tonight should be a peak after his poor performance Tuesday.

Deep cuts this week belong to Tyler Conklin of the Jets, playing the New York Giants, and Chig Okonkwo with Will Levis in at quarterback for Tennessee.

Cody's RankingsQBRB | WR | TE-K-Def

With Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox injured, look for Dalton Kincaid and Trey McBride to vault into the top 12 on a weekly basis going forward. And this will indeed be the week I stop talking about Andrew Ogletree

Tight End Rankings:
RankChangeNameTeamWeek 8
1 Travis KelceKC@DEN
2 Mark AndrewsBAL@ARI
3 T.J. HockensonMIN@GB
4 Darren WallerNYGNYJ
5 Sam LaPortaDETLV
6 George KittleSFCIN
7 Evan EngramJAX@PIT
8 Luke MusgraveGBMIN
9 Dalton SchultzHOU@CAR
10 Dalton KincaidBUFTB
11 Trey McBrideARIBAL
12 Dallas GoedertPHI@WSH
13 Jonnu SmithATL@TEN
14 Cole KmetCHI@LAC
15 Michael MayerLV@DET
16 Jake FergusonDALLAR
17 David NjokuCLE@SEA
18 Kyle PittsATL@TEN
19 Tyler ConklinNYJ@NYG
20 Foster MoreauNO@IND
21 Cade OttonTB@BUF
22 Drew OgletreeINDNO
23 Tommy TrembleCARHOU
24 Logan ThomasWSHPHI
25 Chigoziem OkonkwoTENATL
26 Gerald EverettLACCHI
27 Colby ParkinsonSEACLE
28 Pharaoh BrownNE@DAL
29 Connor HeywardPIT 
30 Hunter HenryNE@MIA
31 Mike GesickiNE@MIA
32 Tyler HigbeeLAR@DAL
33 Noah GrayKC@DEN
34 Noah FantSEACLE
35 Pat FreiermuthPITJAX
36 Adam TrautmanDENKC
37 Hayden HurstCARHOU
38 Irv Smith Jr.CIN@SF
39 C.J. UzomahNYJ@NYG
40 Josh WhyleTENATL
41 Brenton StrangeJAX@PIT
42 Stone SmarttLACCHI
43 Tanner HudsonCIN@SF
44 Ian ThomasCARHOU
45 Donald Parham Jr.LACCHI
46 Brevin JordanHOU@CAR
47 Austin HooperLV@DET
48 Brock WrightDETLV
49 Geoff SwaimARIBAL
50 Mo Alie-CoxINDNO
51 Elijah HigginsARIBAL
52 Robert TonyanCHI@LAC
53 MyCole PruittATL@TEN
54 Teagan QuitorianoHOU@CAR
55 Josh OliverMIN@GB
56 Durham SmytheMIANE
57 Marcedes LewisCHI@LAC
58 Tucker KraftGBMIN
59 Jeremy RuckertNYJ@NYG
60 Nate AdkinsDENKC
61 Jesper HorstedLV@DET
62 Brycen HopkinsLAR@DAL
63 Trevon WescoTENATL
64 Ben SimsGBMIN
65 Drew SampleCIN@SF
66 Mitchell WilcoxCIN@SF
Kicker Rankings:
RankNameTEAMWeek 8
1Justin TuckerBAL@ARI
2Brandon AubreyDALLAR
3Harrison ButkerKC@DEN
4Brett MaherLAR@DAL
5Jason MyersSEACLE
6Younghoe KooATL@TEN
7Jake MoodySFCIN
8Daniel CarlsonLV@DET
9Wil LutzDENKC
10Matt GayINDNO
11Jake ElliottPHI@WSH
12Brandon McManusJAX@PIT
13Tyler BassBUFTB
14Blake GrupeNO@IND
15Riley PattersonDETLV
Defense Rankings:
RankTeamWeek 8
1SEACLE
2CLE@SEA
3PHI@WSH
4KC@DEN
5DETLV
6BAL@ARI
7NYJ@NYG
8MIN@GB
9TENATL
10DALLAR
11HOU@CAR
12NYGNYJ
13BUFTB
14SFCIN
15LAR@DAL

Demario Douglas had five targets in Week 7, eclipsing JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker combined. Douglas saw 25 routes in Week 7, the most since his 27 in Week 1.

Rashid Shaheed has continued to carve out opportunities in New Orleans with another 80%+ route share. With Chris Olave dealing with a legal situation, look for Shaheed to see a few more targets if Olave misses this week.

Cody's RankingsQBRB | WR | TE-K-Def

Even if Olave plays, Shaheed proved over the last three weeks -- 2, 5 and 7 targets -- that he has standalone value within a high output offense.

Wide Receiver Rankings:
RankCHANGENameTeamWeek 8
1 A.J. BrownPHI@WSH
2 Amon-Ra St. BrownDETLV
3 Stefon DiggsBUFTB
4(+1)Tyreek HillMIANE
5(+5)Cooper KuppLAR@DAL
6 DJ MooreCHI@LAC
7 Ja'Marr ChaseCIN@SF
8 Christian KirkJAX@PIT
9(-5)Adam ThielenCARHOU
10 Chris GodwinTB@BUF
11 CeeDee LambDALLAR
12(-2)Puka NacuaLAR@DAL
13 Curtis SamuelWSHPHI
14 Keenan AllenLACCHI
15 Drake LondonATL@TEN
16 Jakobi MeyersLV@DET
17 Jordan AddisonMIN@GB
18 Jaylen WaddleMIANE
19 Diontae JohnsonPITJAX
20(+19)Davante AdamsLV@DET
21 Brandon AiyukSFCIN
22 Joshua PalmerLACCHI
23(-4)Nico CollinsHOU@CAR
24 Devonta SmithPHI@WSH
25 Garrett WilsonNYJ@NYG
26 Terry McLaurinWSHPHI
27 Josh DownsINDNO
28 Zay FlowersBAL@ARI
29 George PickensPITJAX
30 Chris OlaveNO@IND
31 DK MetcalfSEACLE
32 Rashee RiceKC@DEN
33 Tank DellHOU@CAR
34 Michael Pittman Jr.INDNO
35(+17)Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEACLE
36 Michael ThomasNO@IND
37 Mike EvansTB@BUF
38 Courtland SuttonDENKC
39(-3)Amari CooperCLE@SEA
40 Tyler BoydCIN@SF
41 Kendrick BourneNE@MIA
42 Tyler LockettSEACLE
43 Josh ReynoldsDETLV
44 Christian WatsonGBMIN
45 DeAndre HopkinsTENATL
46 Deebo SamuelSFCIN
47 Jahan DotsonWSHPHI
48 Jerry JeudyDENKC
49 Michael WilsonARIBAL
50 Calvin RidleyJAX@PIT
51 Brandon PowellMIN@GB
52 Rashid ShaheedNO@IND
53 Jayden ReedGBMIN
54(-8)Jameson WilliamsDETLV
55 Wan'Dale RobinsonNYGNYJ
56 Romeo DoubsGBMIN
57 Odell Beckham Jr.BAL@ARI
58 Darnell MooneyCHI@LAC
59 Marquise BrownARIBAL
60 Gabe DavisBUFTB
61 KaVontae TurpinDALLAR
62(+17)Elijah MooreCLE@SEA
63 Tutu AtwellLAR@DAL
64 DJ Chark Jr.CARHOU
65 Brandin CooksDALLAR
66 DeMario DouglasNE@MIA
67 K.J. OsbornMIN@GB
68(+38)Tee HigginsCIN@SF
69 Jonathan MingoCARHOU
70(+29)Tre TuckerLV@DET
71 Allen LazardNYJ@NYG
72 Mack HollinsATL@TEN
73 Jalen TolbertDALLAR
74 Robert WoodsHOU@CAR
75 Marvin Mims Jr.DENKC
76 Nick Westbrook-IkhineTENATL
77 Michael GallupDALLAR
78 Jake BoboSEACLE
79 Noah BrownHOU@CAR
80 Derius DavisLACCHI
81 Trenton IrwinCIN@SF
82 Jauan JenningsSFCIN
83 Deven ThompkinsTB@BUF
84 Braxton BerriosMIANE
85 Darius SlaytonNYGNYJ
86 Marquez Valdes-ScantlingKC@DEN
87 Kadarius ToneyKC@DEN
88 Kalif RaymondDETLV
89 Trey PalmerTB@BUF
90 Nelson AgholorBAL@ARI
91 Cedrick Wilson Jr.MIANE
92 Jalin HyattNYGNYJ
93 Alec PierceINDNO
94 Deonte HartyBUFTB
95 Rondale MooreARIBAL
96 Tim JonesJAX@PIT
97 Andrei IosivasCIN@SF
98 Isaiah HodginsNYGNYJ
99 Khalil ShakirBUFTB
100 Scotty MillerATL@TEN

Going back to the well with D’Onta Foreman was the best move possible in Week 7. He finished as the overall RB1, with 19 touches, 120 yards and 3 touchdowns. This week, it looks like Roschon Johnson will return, but as much as we love Johnson, he is coming off of a two-week mishap with a concussion. With a solid matchup against the Chargers, let’s continue tailing the borderline workhorse in Chicago.

The deepest play is in Cleveland, with Pierre Strong sitting behind the injured Kareem Hunt and Jerome Ford. Strong finished as RB49 in Week 7 with just 8 carries and no targets.

Cody's RankingsQBRB | WR | TE-K-Def

Deep-Deep plays consist of Cam Akers and Kenny McIntosh, the rookie coming off of IR in Seattle. McIntosh was the coaching staff's favorite over Zach Charbonnet during training camp. After missing the first 7 weeks, McIntosh is back and Charbonnet is coming off a hamstring injury that caused him to miss Week 7.

Running Back Rankings:
RankCHANGENameTeamWeek 8
1 Travis Etienne Jr.JAX@PIT
2 Breece HallNYJ@NYG
3 Alvin KamaraNO@IND
4 Christian McCaffreySFCIN
5(-3)Jahmyr GibbsDETLV
6 Isiah PachecoKC@DEN
7(+9)Jonathan TaylorINDNO
8 Austin EkelerLACCHI
9 Kenneth Walker IIISEACLE
10 Raheem MostertMIANE
11(+8)Tony PollardDALLAR
12(+4)Bijan RobinsonATL@TEN
13 D'Onta ForemanCHI@LAC
14(-5)Saquon BarkleyNYGNYJ
15 D'Andre SwiftPHI@WSH
16 Derrick HenryTENATL
17 Kareem HuntCLE@SEA
18 Aaron JonesGBMIN
19 Joe MixonCIN@SF
20(-3)Tyjae SpearsTENATL
21 Darrell Henderson Jr.LAR@DAL
22 Rachaad WhiteTB@BUF
23 Josh JacobsLV@DET
24 Rhamondre StevensonNE@MIA
25 Brian Robinson Jr.WSHPHI
26 Javonte WilliamsDENKC
27 Jaylen WarrenPITJAX
28 James CookBUFTB
29(+8)Joshua KelleyLACCHI
30 Zack MossINDNO
31 Najee HarrisPITJAX
32 Ezekiel ElliottNE@MIA
33 Alexander MattisonMIN@GB
34 Chuba HubbardCARHOU
35(-9)AJ DillonGBMIN
36 Gus EdwardsBAL@ARI
37(+6)Tyler AllgeierATL@TEN
38 Miles SandersCARHOU
39 Jaleel McLaughlinDENKC
40 Devin SingletaryHOU@CAR
41 Pierre Strong Jr.CLE@SEA
42(+13)Cam AkersMIN@GB
43 Emari DemercadoARIBAL
44(+6)Roschon JohnsonCHI@LAC
45 Justice HillBAL@ARI
46 Antonio GibsonWSHPHI
47 Jordan MasonSFCIN
48 Keaontay IngramARIBAL
49 Royce FreemanLAR@DAL
50 Craig ReynoldsDETLV
51 Dameon PierceHOU@CAR
52 Salvon AhmedMIANE
53 Darrynton EvansCHI@LAC
54 Samaje PerineDENKC
55(+13)Jamaal WilliamsNO@IND
56 Kenneth GainwellPHI@WSH
57 Zamir WhiteLV@DET
58 Jerick McKinnonKC@DEN
59 Zach CharbonnetSEACLE
60 Emanuel WilsonGB 
61 Latavius MurrayBUFTB
62(-9)Kendre MillerNO@IND
63 Chris Rodriguez Jr.WSHPHI
64 Damien WilliamsARIBAL
65 Ty ChandlerMIN@GB
66 Keaton MitchellBAL@ARI
67 Boston ScottPHI@WSH
68 Jeff Wilson Jr.MIANE
69 Kenny McIntoshSEACLE
70 Tyrion Davis-PriceSFCIN
71 Dalvin CookNYJ@NYG
72 Cordarrelle PattersonATL@TEN
73 Michael CarterNYJ@NYG
74 Matt BreidaNYGNYJ
75 Devine OzigboDET 
76 Deuce VaughnDALLAR
77 Clyde Edwards-HelaireKC@DEN
78 Ty MontgomeryNE 
79 Trayveon WilliamsCIN@SF
80 Chase BrownCIN@SF
81 Tank BigsbyJAX@PIT
82 Ke'Shawn VaughnTB@BUF
83 Rico DowdleDALLAR
84 Mike BooneHOU@CAR
85 Damien HarrisBUFTB
86 Zach EvansLAR@DAL
87 Isaiah SpillerLACCHI

The Tennessee Titans come out of the bye week with a plan in place for Will Levis to start. According to Coach Mike Vrabel, it will be both Will Levis and Malik Willis, with Ryan Tannehill out. Willis showed a lack of pocket presence against Baltimore. I can’t imagine the Titans have an actual short leash on Levis. He comes in at QB 21.

Desmond Ridder has taken a large step forward after starting just 11 career games so far. He looks as if he has been in the NFL for 35 games. He has averaged a QB finish of 9.7 over the last three weeks, winning two of three.

Cody's RankingsQBRB | WR | TE-K-Def

The bottom of the totem pole is injured Deshaun Watson, poor performing Jordan Love and unprotected Sam Howell against the Eagles. Refer to plays like Josh Dobbs, Tyrod Taylor or Baker Mayfield if you must.

Quarterback Rankings:
RankChangeNameTeamWeek 8
1 Patrick MahomesKC@DEN
2 Jalen HurtsPHI@WSH
3 Josh AllenBUFTB
4 Lamar JacksonBAL@ARI
5 Joe BurrowCIN@SF
6 Jared GoffDETLV
7 Derek CarrNO@IND
8 Trevor LawrenceJAX@PIT
9 Tua TagovailoaMIANE
10 Kirk CousinsMIN@GB
11 Dak PrescottDALLAR
12 C.J. StroudHOU@CAR
13 Justin HerbertLACCHI
14 Matthew StaffordLAR@DAL
15 Bryce YoungCARHOU
16 Desmond RidderATL@TEN
17 Brock PurdySFCIN
18 Tyson BagentCHI@LAC
19 Gardner MinshewINDNO
20 Geno SmithSEACLE
21 Kenny PickettPITJAX
22 Will LevisTENATL
23 Joshua DobbsARIBAL
24 Russell WilsonDENKC
25 Baker MayfieldTB@BUF
26 Tyrod TaylorNYGNYJ
27 Sam HowellWSHPHI
28 Mac JonesNE@MIA
29 Zach WilsonNYJ@NYG
30 Deshaun WatsonCLE@SEA
31 Brian HoyerLV@DET
32 Jordan LoveGBMIN
33 P.J. WalkerCLE@ARI
34 Clayton TuneARIBAL
35 Aidan O'ConnellLV@DET
36 Malik WillisTENATL

It’s finally here and our long wait is officially over! The NBA season starts on Tuesday night with the Lakers visiting the Nuggets at 7:30 p.m. ET and the Warriors hosting the Suns at 10 p.m. Both games are on TNT, so you’ll be able to catch all the action.

(Meanwhile, Sportstopia's Contrarian Edge Optimizer is the elite tool to use when setting your DFS lineups and you can try it out for an entire week for just $1).

Bradley Beal is out for the Suns with a gimpy back and SG/SF Grayson Allen could be a strong play. He’s just $4900 at DraftKings and the Optimizer likes him as well. The Optimizer has Allen going off for 19.45 points against the Warriors and he looks like one of the better value picks on a two-game night.

Draymond Green (ankle) has also been ruled out, which should clear the way for Chris Paul and Kevon Looney to get some extra minutes. But the player I like to shine in his place is SF/PF Jonathan Kuminga. The Optimizer also loves him, projecting him to score 28.44 fantasy points at a salary of just $4600 at FanDuel.

Another player I’ve been high on during drafting season is Andrew Wiggins of Golden State.  He’s a power forward at DraftKings at a salary of $5500 and a projected point total of 30.41. Wiggins was out for much of last season due to various injuries and an extended personal leave, but he’s back, healthy and should be ready to put up big numbers for the Dubs.

I also like the idea of stacking Warriors and a lineup featuring PG/SG Stephen Curry (Draft Kings - $9200, 46.41 points, FanDuel - $10000, 43.71 points), PG Chris Paul (Draft Kings - $5600, 31.52 points, FanDuel - $8000, 33.58 points), PF Wiggins (Draft Kings - $5500, 30.54 points, FanDuel - $6800, 30.16 points) and C Kevon Looney (Draft Kings - $5300, 29.66 points, FanDuel - $5400, 29.83 points) makes a lot of sense to both me and the Optimizer.

Other players to consider when setting lineups tonight on DraftKings include PG/SG Devin Booker ($8300, 43.45 points), Taurean Prince ($3500, 17.87 points), C Nikola Jokic ($10000, 56.94 points) and Jordan Goodwin ($3300, 16.93 points).

Goodwin is cheap and could play a big role with Beal out and putting together some ‘stars and scrubs’ lineups shouldn’t be hard to do with the injuries in Phoenix and Golden State. LeBron James is another Optimizer favorite and comes with a $9300 salary and a projection of 42.29 fantasy points.

Favorite plays by position
  • Point Guard - Jordan Goodwin ($4300, 19.89 points - FanDuel)
  • Shooting Guard - Eric Gordon ($4000, 20.13 points - FanDuel)
  • Small Forward - LeBron James ($10,300, 47.51 - FanDuel)
  • Power Forward - Dario Saric ($3400, 18.55 - DraftKings)
  • Center - Jusuf Nurkic ($6300, 32.24 - DraftKings)

Getting the use of the Contrarian Edge Optimizer tool for an entire week for just $1 is simply a deal too good to pass up. So hit the link, let the Optimizer set you some lineups, sit back and enjoy the opening night of the NBA season.

Tuesday marks the tip-off of the 2023-24 NBA season, and we have two games for our Underdog and PrizePicks plays. The TNT doubleheader features two Western Conference showdowns. The first game features a rematch of the Western Conference finals with LeBron James and the Lakers facing Nikola Jokic and the defending NBA champion Nuggets. The second matchup pegs the Golden State Warriors and Steph Curry against the new-look Phoenix Suns.

Anthony Davis 23.5 Points (More) - PrizePicks

The Lakers have revenge on their mind, and I believe they are the correct side in the opener. Davis will lead the way for the Lakers this season simply because they need him to. AD averaged 26.8 points per game in the West finals. Hopefully we’ll get a full, healthy season from ‘The Brow’.

LeBron James 1.5 Steals + Blocks (Higher) – Underdog

The Nuggets allowed the most steals per game last season to opposing power forwards. The King truly is positionless, but at this point in his career, he will mostly play power forward with Davis at center.

The Lakers have added depth to its backcourt, so LeBron will defend the post often alongside Davis. James usually has huge opening night performances, and even in year 21, I think we’ll see King James active all over the floor.

LeBron and the Lakers want to make a statement that their run to the WCF wasn’t a fluke, so I expect him to play significant minutes despite it being Game 1. He topped this number in 10 of 16 playoff games last season, and playing the extra minutes tonight will help him get there again.

Nikola Jokic 12.5 Rebounds (More) – PrizePicks

It’s a no-brainer to back the former MVP on opening night at home in some capacity. He topped this number in three of the four playoff games versus the Lakers last season and in 36 games during the regular season. It doesn’t hurt that the Lakers allowed the sixth-most rebounds per game to opposing centers last season ago.

Kevin Durant 30.5 Points (Higher) - Underdog

It sounds like we’ll have to wait a few more days until we get a complete look at the Suns new roster. Bradley Beal is currently doubtful to play in the opener, and Devin Booker is a game-time decision.

Thus, Durant likely will be the focal point, so it’s easy for me to select his over. KD averaged over 29 points per game last season, and I expect him to waste no time to get shots up.

Jusuf Nurkic 21.5 Points + Rebounds (Higher) – Underdog

The Suns have a completely revamped roster outside of Durant and Booker. The Warriors will be without Draymond Green tonight, which opens the door even wider for Nurkic to have a solid debut with his new team.

Golden State was bottom 10 last season in points and rebounds allowed to opposing centers. Nurkic has topped this number in six of his last eight matchups against the Warriors, albeit as a member of the Trail Blazers.

Can someone call the NFL schedulers for me? Why on earth did we have to suffer through six teams on bye in week 7 just to have zero teams on bye in week 8. That being said, week 8 is a nice little oasis in the sea of bye weeks that is the middle of the NFL Season.

We’re over halfway through the fantasy regular season at this point yet we’re still learning new information and watching player’s roles on teams change. This is the time of year to pay attention to upward trends on disappointing players. Look for the wide receiver whose snap share has increased dramatically but hasn’t seen the production yet. Look for the backup running backs behind older or injury prone starters. Look for the rookies who may see their first opportunities for significant playing time over the back half of the season.

Fantasy values are far from sticky and we’ll see multiple players dramatically increase (and decrease) before the end of the season. We’re trying to get ahead of those increases and get those players on our roster before the rest of the league catches on.

Wide Receivers

Josh Downs (52% Rostered)

After a slow start to his rookie year, 3rd round pick Josh Downs has taken on a larger role in this Colt’s offense. He’s had three weeks in a row of at least 6 targets and no less than 13 PPR fantasy points.

Don’t expect Downs to surpass Michael Pittman as the team’s leading receiver, but it does appear as if his role in this offense is secure and can only grow as the season progresses. Downs can be viewed as a WR2/3 depending on matchup.

Kendrick Bourne (39% Rostered)

Kendrick Bourne was doing his best Sammy Watkins impersonation until Week 6 of this year. Blow up week 1 with a multi-touchdown game and then disappear. Luckily for fantasy managers, Mac Jones remembered in Week 6 that Kendrick Bourne is his best receiving weapon and he carried that lesson over into week 7.

Back-to-back top 15 wide receiver weeks, with 7 and 11 targets respectively. Next week the Patriots head to Miami to play one of the highest powered offenses in the league. If the Patriots stand a chance, they’ll have to throw the ball a ton to keep up. Kendrick Bourne should be in line for a hefty target volume in week 8.

Jalin Hyatt (25% Rostered)

After seeing more than 46% of the snaps just once in the first 5 weeks, Jalin Hyatt has been on the field for more than 70% of the snaps over the last two weeks. While he’s starting to consistently see the field more, the production hasn’t quite caught up yet.

Hyatt brings a dimension to the game that the Giants desperately need, a big play threat on the field. If this Giants’ offense is to turn it around, Hyatt will likely be a part of that. If you have room on your bench, add Hyatt before his production catches up to his new elevated usage.

Running Backs

Darrell Henderson (37% Rostered)

My bad on Zach Evans y’all, that one really didn’t work out in all of the leagues I started him in during the bye-pocalypse of week 7. It didn’t work out because Darrell Henderson was activated from the practice squad Saturday and then was the Rams’ clear lead back on Sunday. Henderson has familiarity with this offense so there was little learning curve before he could plug right in.

Henderson should likely remain the lead back so long as Kyren Williams is out, so at least three more weeks. That being said, Royce Freeman looks to get some work as well during that time. If Henderson shows out during this time period, he could see usage even upon the return of Kyren Williams.

Emari Demercado (20% Rostered)

I know Demercado burned us a couple weeks ago but the tables were turned in week 7 as he led the Cardinals backfield with 13 carries. Keontay Ingram confusingly got no carries after leading the team in carries in week 6.

Demercado carries significant risk as the Cardinals don’t seem committed to a single back while James Conner is out, but signs are pointing in his direction. In a decent matchup against Baltimore in week 8, you can put Demercado in your lineup in a pinch.

Tyjae Spears (50% Rostered)

Tyjae Spears continues to earn snaps on a team that has Derrick Henry. While his touches were limited the last time we saw him in week 6 against Baltimore, Spears is carving out a role on this team.

I’m not yet ready to start Tyjae Spears, but get him on your bench while he’s flying under the radar due to the Titans’ bye week. Spears will likely continue to earn more work away from Derrick Henry as the season progresses.

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid (41% Rostered)

The year of the rookie tight end continued as Dalton Kincaid had his first big game of the season in the Bills’ loss to the New England Patriots. Kincaid caught all 8 of his targets for 75 yards, good enough for TE7 on the week in PPR formats.

With Dawson Knox potentially sidelined for an undetermined amount of time due to wrist surgery, Kincaid could be looking at an opportunity to continue his week 7 successes into the rest of the season.

Logan Thomas (48% Rostered)

Thomas continues to be a preferred target of Sam Howell and that should continue in a week 8 matchup against the Eagles. Thomas has gotten at least 6 targets in half of his games this season and scored a TD in two of them. While this doesn’t sound like much, it’s enough to make him TE13 on the season in PPR leagues.

With Sam Howell set to likely see a lot of pressure in week 8, expect Thomas to be heavily involved over the middle of the field. Thomas is a nice Safety Valve for Howell and Howell will likely need that in week 8.

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray (48% Rostered)

While the Joshua Dobbs experience got off to a hot start this season, it’s simmered down over the past couple of weeks. The timing of it works out nicely because we just received news that Kyler Murray will likely be back on the field by week 10.

With the Cardinals offense running surprisingly well to start the season, the upside of Kyler Murray is immense. Let’s not forget who Kyler Murray is for fantasy. This dude, that people seemingly want to leave for dead on the waiver wire, was a top 12 QB in 8 of 11 starts just last season. In 2021, he was a top 12 QB in 7 of 13 starts and a top 15 QB in 11 of 13 starts.

Kyler Murray is good for fantasy football and he’s just sitting out there in a majority of leagues. Pick him up. Put him in your IR spot. Enjoy your top 12 QB for the rest of the season when he comes back in week 10.

Tyson Bagent (7% Rostered)

This is for my friends out there feeling a little desperate. This is for the people in a work league where everyone rosters 3+ QBs. This is for the people that like a little risk in their life.

Bagent is not my 2nd favorite QB on the wire this week, but I wanted to highlight that he is startable in week 8. Bagent turned in an underwhelming fantasy performance in Chicago’s big win against the Raiders, but he’s got arguably the most QB friendly matchup in the Chargers in week 8.

Fields isn’t expected to be out long term, but if you need a week 8 spot start Bagent can get you across this finish line in a good matchup.

Other Streamers
  • Gardner Minshew (13% Rostered)
  • Bryce Young (24% Rostered)
  • Zach Wilson (8% Rostered)
  • Mac Jones (13% Rostered)

An optimizer is a powerful tool for DFS, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. But we must first learn how to wield an optimizer to realize its true power.

That’s what we try to do in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Sportstopia’s Contrarian Edge Optimizer for every Monday Night Football game this season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the industry’s newest and most dynamic optimizer.

MNF: San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

First Run

Running the Contrarian Edge Optimizer without altering any inputs returns a roster consisting of Alexander Mattison at captain, Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, and Brandon Powell. While I agree this returns the best combination of median projections, there are additional things we need to be thinking through when taking team tendencies, injuries, and game environment into account.

Test drive the Contrarian Edge Optimizer -- $1, 1 Week

MNF Theory

First off, Deebo Samuel is set to miss the next two games, at minimum, for the 49ers with a fracture in his shoulder. That takes an already concentrated San Francisco offense and turns it into a hyper-concentrated offense. Christian McCaffrey, Aiyuk, and Kittle should be at the top of our list on this showdown slate. That said, team tendencies could narrow that down further for us.

Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores has blitzed 22 percent more than any other team. Offensive tackle Trent Williams, one of the top tackles in the game, is listed as doubtful. When you combine those two truths, we’re left with a matchup against the most blitz-heavy defense in the league without one of the top pass protectors in the league for the 49ers.

Taking previous coaching tendencies into account, we should expect TE Kittle to play heavier rates in-line. That does not mean that he won’t run routes, but I would expect Kittle to be in to block at a higher rate than we’ve seen to this point in the season. Kittle’s 89.6 percent route participation rate could take a substantial hit in this spot.

That should place increased emphasis on Aiyuk through the air in addition to a high expected workload for McCaffrey. But it should also open up some secondary players for potential fantasy goodness, primarily Ray-Ray McCloud, who filled in directly for Samuel once the latter left the team’s Week 6 contest. That’s important as it wasn’t the more straight-up Jauan Jennings that saw an increase to his snap rate and route participation.

As for the Vikings, who will be without alpha wide receiver Justin Jefferson, things get a bit more interesting. Mattison projects well due to his hefty workload in this offense, but the 49ers force one of the highest pass rates against due to their suffocating run defense. That means K.J. Osborn, Jordan Addison, Powell, and Hockenson get a slight boost to expectations in this matchup.

Practical Application

Simply applying a 10 percent boost to the projections of Aiyuk, McCaffrey, McCloud, and the Vikings pass-catchers and applying a 10 percent decrease to Kittle, Mattison, and Jauan Jennings will force the optimizer to emphasize these theoretical findings. The biggest problem with only manipulating the skill position players is that it could preclude the optimizer from including defenses and kickers at a comparable rate as would otherwise be considered without manipulating projections.

To combat this, I recommend running the optimizer without manipulating the projections of those two positions for one-third of your entries, saving one-third for the base run and one-third for entries where you manipulate the defenses and kicker projections. This will give you the best mix of theory, its application, and variance management for a highly variant one-game sample.

Every year, fantasy managers scour through different sites to find THE breakout player that is going to win them their league. That guy in Round 4 who will provide top-five value, or the one you can select in the second half of the draft who will be a second-round producer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lauri Markkanen last season).

I can’t promise all these players will be league winners, but I’m confident they’ll raise their dynasty value quickly. For some, this is the lowest they’ll ever be valued, so if you want in, do it now. For others, they’ll start the season very well but may not be able to sustain it. That makes this a great time to buy in, since you should be able to flip them for better value later.

Tyrese Maxey 76ers

The situation is perfect for a Maxey breakout. James Harden refuses to play for the 76ers, but a trade has yet to come. We’ve seen Daryl Morey be patient in the past with a disgruntled star (i.e., Ben Simmons), so it wouldn’t be shocking if he held onto Harden until another All-Star player demands a trade.

With no help on the way, Maxey will be the No. 2 scoring option in Philly. In 13 games without Harden last year, Maxey averaged 24.8 points, 5.4 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 3.2 triples. A mid-season trade could hurt his value, but if Philly falls short of their expectations again this season, Joel Embiid COULD ask out, which would leave this as Maxey’s team.

Devin Vassell, Spurs

Vassell is a favorite of many fantasy analysts, but if you weren’t paying attention, you may have been confused by his four-year, $146 million extension. The former lottery pick has taken a large step forward in each of his first three seasons, and this next one should be no different. He’s healthy, he has more help, and he has another year of experience under his belt.

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While Victor Wembanyama is the future of the franchise, Vassell is the Spurs’ second-best player. He can contribute value across the board, but he still has room to improve. He’s nowhere near his ceiling, but his rise should start this season. Buy in before he blossoms.

Anfernee Simons, Trail Blazers

Sure, there’s only one basketball in Portland, but Simons may be the best scorer on this team full of scorers. He turned 24 in June, but he’s one of the most lethal shooters in the league. In 11 games without Dame last season, Simons averaged 27.9 points, 5.7 assists and 4.6 triples per game.

Simons won’t reach that volume over the course of a full season, but he’ll still return solid value in those categories. He doesn’t offer much defensively, but that won’t keep him off the floor. This is Scoot Henderson’s team, but Simons will look like the star next season.

Zach Collins, Spurs

Collins just signed a two-year, $35 million extension Sunday, which means they want him to be the center next to Wemby until 2026. Collins has been solid in the preseason, but he was incredible to finish last season. Over the final two months, he averaged 16.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.6 triples. He may produce to that level during the season, but he’ll provide well-rounded value from the center spot for the next few years.

Onyeka Okongwu, Hawks

Okongwu is so close to taking over the starting center spot in Atlanta. It is surprising that Clint Capela has lasted this long, but when OO takes over, he’s going to boom in fantasy. He shot 5-for-13 from deep in four preseason games, and while he may not shoot quite that many during the regular season, he’ll provide way more spacing for Trae Young to operate than Capela ever has.

Plus, Okongwu was nearly a top-75 player in 9-cat leagues last season with averages of 9.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, 0.7 steals and 1.3 blocks while shooting 63.8% from the field in 23.1 minutes. He also shot 78.1% from the line, which is much better than Capela. Seriously, trade for this guy before he gets a permanent starting job.

Jalen Duren

“Detroit has too many centers! There aren’t enough minutes for Duren, Isaiah Stewart, James Wiseman AND Marvin Bagley! I’m just staying away from that poverty franchise.” Let’s make something clear: Duren is the center of the future in Detroit. He’s the best big they have, and he’s going to start this season.

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He’s a walking double-double that will shoot a high field goal percentage and provide defensive stats. Traditional center stuff, but he hasn’t even turned 20 yet! Plus, he showcased some shooting range and ball handling during Summer League.

The sky's the limit for this kid, and he’s going to grow alongside their young core. Grab him now before your league mates figure out that he is far and away the best big in Detroit.

Jalen Johnson, Hawks

Much like with Okongwu, Johnson is close to a starting role. A changing of the guard is happening in Atlanta’s frontcourt, albeit very slowly. Since their Eastern Conference Finals run a few years ago, they’ve traded away Kevin Huerter and John Collins, and it wouldn’t be shocking if Clint Capela, Saddiq Bey and De’Andre Hunter were also moved within the next few seasons (some sooner than others).

As those trades happen (or even before if Johnson simply takes the starting role), minutes will open up. Johnson is the starting power forward of the future in Atlanta and has shown the upside to provide value across the board. He had an exciting preseason, and it’s only a matter of time before he soars to new heights.

Dyson Daniels, Pelicans

Daniels isn’t on the cusp of a breakout, but he is still a player to buy now. Daniels should see a larger role to start the season with Jose Alvarado out, but it will still be limited. He played well in the preseason and showcased an ability to get both steals and assists while also displaying an improved 3-point shot.

As C.J. McCollum ages, Daniels will play a larger role, and there will come a time when Daniels is the starting point guard and providing top-50 value. Make sure he’s on your roster before that happens!