Every week I’ll be examining the touchdown market, and putting together a parlay of my favorite selections. Along the way, you’ll also get a couple longshot selections that are worth some beer money. Week 1 normally has pretty efficient pricing in this market, but I’m expecting to find some great value this season.
Top Week 1 Anytime TD Props
Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders: +210 DraftKings
Antonio Gibson has been one of my favorite touchdown looks all week. While he and Brian Robinson will both compete for those red zone angles, I think there is room for everyone to score! Robinson profiles as the higher-volume rusher, but even last year, when Gibson was bordering on irrelevancy, he managed to be a red zone threat despite the low overall volume. Now combine that with how Eric Bieniemy used McKinnon in the red zone last year, and I’m feeling pretty good about Gibson's chances to be heavily involved. He has always been very efficient in the red zone, and his receiving + rushing abilities open up the playbook and make the defense respect his receiving chops.
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: +140 Caesars
A.J. Brown is always a player I like targeting, and I think he profiles to dominate this weekend. While Hurts is usually the only Eagle I focus on in the red zone, I think the Patriots' pass-rushing core with Judon/Uche represents a little more of a unique matchup, with more speed than any other pass-rushing LB core in the league. Judon led the league in sacks on scrambles, while Uche finished 5th. They are in a better place than most to contain Hurts. Additionally, coaches have had a whole season to game plan against the QB sneak play, and I would hope Coach Bill has a plan for that. Brown has dominant numbers against man coverage, and the Patriots played the third-most man coverage snaps last season. I always express the importance of WRs having the capability to score both inside and outside of the redzone, and we know Brown is one of the few guys who can do both at a high level.
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J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens: +110 MGM
J.K. Dobbins is another target I like on Sunday, and I’m surprised he’s priced above even money across the board. This is one of those situations where Baltimore should dominate. Not only were the Texans unimpressive in the preseason, and they still have a number of question marks around who is even starting. Baltimore is the heaviest favorite on the board and will be the most popular survivor selection. While I'm a big fan of Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins is the clear starter for this lineup. The Ravens are expected to throw a lot this season, but once we get in the red zone, I expect a heavy dose of Dobbins. Working with one of the highest implied team totals on the slate doesn’t hurt; we will have plenty of opportunities.
Week 1 TD Parlay: Antonio Gibson/AJ Brown/JK Dobbins +1430 DK
Week 1 Anytime TD Longshots
Alec Ignold, Miami Dolphins, +1100 MGM
Ingold became the second-highest paid fullback in the league and is another one of my longshot selections. The Chargers were one of the worst rush defenses in football last season and are expected to struggle once again. We already saw creative usage from Ignold in preseason, and Mike McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, which utilizes the position more than any other team around. With the Dolphins being so low on running backs, and this being the highest total game of the weekend, I think there are plenty worse bets to make.
Cole Turner, Washington Commanders: +1500 FanDuel
And if you want an absolutely degenerate TD to sprinkle, then I'll be going with Cole Turner at +1500 on FanDuel. The second-year TE is absolutely huge, was a great red-zone weapon in college and formed a very good connection with Howell in preseason. The Ghost of Logan Thomas is playing with negative ACLs, and I think Turner is involved early! Good price, here.