Cody Carpentier ranks the WRs for Week 2
After an eventful Week 1 from the Dolphins and Chargers, I am most intrigued to continue to watch the super-nova that is Miami’s Tyreek Hill. His ability to get in and out of breaks in routes, which I don’t understand due to his lack of crisp route running, can only be explained as a “bend” in the route.
General route-running savants take aggressive cuts at the top of a route, whereas Hill just bends them, or cuts them short. But his sheer speed and explosion in those “bends” allows him to create upwards of six yards of separation on short inside slant routes.
If Hill and Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy, there is a near 100% chance that Hill surpasses his preseason goal of 2,000 receiving yards.
Cody's Rankings for Week 2:
My favorite sleeper is the Texans’ Tank Dell. He was a sweetheart at the 2023 Reeces Senior Bowl, skating across the field with ease and separation. In Week 1, he and Noah Brown tied for third on the Texans with four catches each.
With Brown now on the IR, the door is open for Dell. Throughout training camp, analysts with boots on the ground in Houston called him “unguardable” and “the best” receiver on the team, while quarterback C.J. Stroud said he was his “favorite” target.
Cody Carpentier ranks the RBs for Week 2
Let’s do it again – McCaffrey, McCaffrey, McCaffrey. if Christian McCaffrey is healthy, it will be difficult to assume anything less than a weekly top three finish in fantasy points on the 49ers. This is what we said for Week 1 -- a week of tough predictions, and McCaffrey was one of five running backs we projected to finish in the Top 10, who did.
Two rookie RBs finished in the top 10 in fantasy points after Week 1 – the Falcons’ Bijan Robinson (RB7) and former college teammate Roschon Johnson (RB8).
Cody's Rankings for Week 2:
The majority of Johnson’s work came in the fourth quarter while Chicago was clawing to come back against Green Bay, but Johnson made play after play in the passing and running game. Expect to see his role grow in coming weeks as Chicago struggles to score points in a miserable NFC North.
Cody Carpentier ranks fantasy QBs for Week 2
Jalen Hurts disappointed in Week 1 for fantasy managers, who expect a top-5 finish week in and week out. Hurts finished as the QB19 after completing 66% of his passes for only 170 yards and running nine times for an abysmal 37 yards.
In Week 2, Hurts plays on Thursday night against the Minnesota Vikings, a team that in Week 1 couldn’t slow down Baker Mayfield and the new look Buccaneers. Mayfield had two passing touchdowns and nearly a 100 QB Rating.
In 2022, Hurts and the Eagles defeated Minnesota 24-7 in Week 2. He finished with 333 passing yards and two rushing touchdowns. He and the Eagles should continue that success in their 2023 home opener.
Last week, people looked past the flaws on Geno Smith’s 2022 stat sheet -- the dip in completion percentage down the 63% over the last five games and winning just two of five.
Cody's Rankings for Week 2:
We told you to be careful, because “The Rams are coming to play football on Sunday in Seattle.” Los Angeles not only came to play, but they walked the dog as well, outsourcing Seattle 23-0 in the second half and walking away with a big divisional win.
Continue to start Anthony Richardson with confidence if you drafted him as your QB1. Despite a loss to the Jaguars in Week 1, Richardson showed extreme promise with a whopping 37 pass attempts, of which he completed 65%. Richardson threw the ball more than 37 times, just three times while at Florida.
Steezy's Bargain Bin: Great players, great prices
Wow, Week 1 was… bizarre -- to say the least. I don’t think I’ve ever finished with a worse ‘Pick ‘Em’ correct percentage than what I posted in any Week 1 before -- 50%.
Could the games have been scripted any crazier? Every single primetime game happened the exact opposite of what I and many others had forecasted.
Don’t worry, I’m not here to rant about my miscues, rather I’m here to be your version of Grocery Outlet, DFS style! (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel)
Having played six games so far in calendar year 2023 -- two regular season games and three playoff games -- Purdy has thrown only one interception. As efficient as it gets, I’m baffled Purdy is so cheap, given the plethora of weapons in his arsenal.
You can do a lot worse than Purdy as your starting QB, both in real life and in fantasy. He doesn’t have the highest upside, but his floor is stable enough to warrant starting consideration just about every week. Until I see him not perform, he’s a QB I love moving forward.
After having been held out of Week 1 (arm), Moss is expected to give it a go in Week 2 in Houston vs the Texans. With Jonathan Taylor still on the PUP list and rookie RB Evan Hull having been recently placed on IR (knee), this Colts backfield is ripe for the taking for Moss.
I’m worried about Deon Jackson’s ghastly Week 1 – 18 touches for 28 scrimmage yards and two lost fumbles. Moss averaged 83.5 rushing yards per game -- on 4.8 yards per carry -- in the last four games last season.
In a divisional matchup where Moss’ only competition for touches (goal-line included) is an already-banged up QB Anthony Richardson, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Moss rush for more than 100 yards in his first game back.
The memes about Toney’s hands (or lack thereof) have been hilarious, but let’s take a deeper dive into the numbers. He was targeted on 50% of his routes while only playng 26% of the snaps. He also tied for the team lead in targets with five.
People forget, he missed essentially all of training camp and the preseason because of a torn meniscus, so rust and a lack of rhythm was definitely a factor. Add in that Travis Kelce is likely to play Week 2 against the Jaguars, and there will be less attention on Toney in what is expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week.
Everyone’s down on Toney, but here’s your chance to come up with a potential steal, given his measly price point.
MT is back, baby! Perhaps FanDuel hasn’t caught on yet. C’mon y’all -- WR52? I know, I know. It’s just one game. But five receptions (on eight targets) for 61 yards in his first game back?
Clearly, the new Saints offense can support multiple pass catchers in fantasy, perhaps three given the emergence of Rashid Shaheed, and Thomas will benefit from that.
In a divisional matchup against the Carolina Panthers who’ll be missing promising young cornerback Jaycee Horn, I wouldn’t be surprised if Thomas clears 100 yards and puts up a vintage performance. He’ll only continue to earn Derek Carr’s trust throughout the season, and he will also have Chris Olave soaking up attention. Don’t be surprised if you find him in another one of these articles down the line.
As the season goes along, don’t be surprised if LaPorta ends up becoming a backend TE1. His usage in Week 1, along with his talent, supports that notion, even if the sample size is less than ideal.
As a guy who covers the Seattle Seahawks, I know how vulnerable Seattle can be in the middle of the field in defending the pass (and especially tight ends), and that’s where LaPorta will contribute for the Lions. In another matchup that’s expected to fill up the scoreboard, LaPorta is an absolute bargain as the TE20.
Look, I get it. Two receptions for 25 yards isn’t an ideal start to the season, but let’s not forget Moore had to go up against one of the best cornerbacks in all of football in Jaire Alexander of the Green Bay Packers.
That Bears offense was a mess, but the cheeseheads also boast one of the better units in the league, so take Moore’s Week 1’s performance with a grain of salt.
While I don’t want this to come off as downplaying their opponent -- the Buccaneers also boast a very athletic and nasty defense -- Tampa Bay doesn’t have a Jaire Alexander on the other side of the ball.
In addition, Moore has plenty of history going up against the Bucs, with and without Tom Brady, dating back to his time with the Carolina Panthers. Just last season alone, Moore compiled 13 receptions (on 20 targets) for 186 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in two games against the Bucs. I expect him to bounce back. More Moore, please!
Vegas analysis on three NFL games this week
Every Tuesday, I wake up and react to the shift in line movement after a weekend of NFL football. A line can shift for several reasons, sometimes for better or worse. In this series of articles, we look at three games a week and any associated line movement with them.
In Week 2, here are the three games with line movement that I am targeting.
I went to this game immediately. Colleagues Sean Green and Ryan Kramer from the Sports Gambling Podcast put me on to a betting trend I have blindly tailed in almost every situation – the ‘Close Your Eyes Special.’
The Close Your Eyes Special is when a team underperforms the spread by 21+ points and is underdog the next week. Four teams underperformed the spread by 21+ points -- the Cincinnati Bengals, the New York Giants, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Seattle Seahawks. Only the Steelers and the Seahawks are underdogs this week, but let’s focus on the Seahawks.
The Detroit Lions got a three-point line move after Week 1from -2.5 to -5.5. The thought process behind the Close Your Eyes Special is that team that just got destroyed the week before is vastly underrated the next week. During the 2022 season the Close Your Eyes Special went 6-3 ATS with five outright wins.
The Lions had a few lapses in coverage but were fortunate with several drops by the Kansas City Chiefs. Seattle’s offense was dynamic last year, and they added one of the top receivers in the draft in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Last season, the Seahawks won this game 48-45. Expect Seattle keep it close again.
The Packers surprised some in Week 1. Jordan Love passed for three touchdowns with help from running back Aaron Jones and wide receiver Romeo Doubs. This week’s line completely flipped from Falcons -1.5 to Packers -1.5. And I’m not sure it is enough.
The Packers are better, but the books are slow to keep up. This team has a great defense and Love showed he can steer the offense in the right direction. While the Falcons did get a divisional win last week, the benefited more from the rookie struggles of Bryce Young than their own merit. Desmond Ridder still is developing as a passer and unfortunately, he did not have Aaron Rodgers to sit behind. I like Coach LaFleur to outcoach Coach Smith in Love’s first road start.
I could not in good faith leave this line out. Prior to Monday night, the Cowboys were three-point favorites. By the fourth quarter, with Rodgers out with an Achilles tear, the ‘Boys were at -7.5. And a day after the Jets’ miraculous punt return in overtime, the line is Cowboys -9.5.
The Jets are back to where they were last year with Zach Wilson running things, but Wilson does not quarterback the defense. That honor goes to C.J. Mosley, and his D forced four turnovers and gave up 16 points. Sauce Gardner and the defense had already broken out last season and have solidified themselves as one of the best in the league.
The Cowboys annihilated the New York Giants on Sunday night. Their defensive line wreaked havoc all night and gave the Giants offensive line all they could handle. While I do expect much of the same from them on defense, I expect the Cowboys to struggle to find ways to move the ball versus the Jets defense.
I’m very interested in seeing a Dak Prescott interception player prop price. The Jets will struggle on offense, but the Cowboys will as well. I think the Jets cover the +9.5 and I would seriously consider a look towards the under.
Fantasy Fire & Ice Video: Simon, Stu and Terrell break down great rostering possibilities
The first week of the NFL regular season is in the books, so you've got a sample size, albeit a very small one. But this is a great chance to find that golden nugget on the waiver wire that could carry you to your fantasy league championship.
In the video below, Sportstopia's Simon Groenevld, Terrell Furman and Stu 'Monotone' Durst talk about some great possibilities to add to your roster for Week 2 on the waiver run. They also break down the wild Bills-Jets game on Monday Night Football.
Getting clarity on QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs after a wild Week 1
The waiver run after Week 1 of the NFL season can be the most important for your fantasy team, but be careful not to overreact. This waiver run is where you may have picked up Cordarrelle Patterson or Phillip Lindsay on the way to a championship in past years, but it also is where you may have dropped 50 percent of your FAAB on Marquez Callaway on the way to a 6th-place finish.
If you correctly read the tea leaves, the outcome can be winning your league. There’s a lot of fool’s gold out there though, so let’s find our way through it.
Puka Nacua, Rams (10% Rostered)
With Cooper Kupp on IR, many expected Van Jefferson or even Tyler Higbee to be heavily targeted in the Rams’ Week 1 matchup against the Seahawks. In walks fifth-round pick Nacua to establish himself as the team’s top option in Kupp’s absence.
While we try not to overreact, don’t underreact either to 15 targets, 10 receptions, and 119 yards. That’s 21.9 PPR fantasy points without a touchdown. Nacua should be rostered in all leagues.
Zay Jones, Jaguars (37% Rostered)
Say hello to Jacksonville’s WR2. There was motion around him in the WR room this offseason with the addition of Calvin Ridley, but this seems to have had more of an impact on teammate Christian Kirk than it did on Jones.
While I fully expect $20 million man Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram to have their games, Jones appears to be a core part of this ascending Jaguars offensive game plan.
Jakobi Meyers, Raiders (51% Rostered)
Meyers took every comment from every analyst calling him ‘boring’ or ‘just a guy’ and hung them in his locker heading into this game. He showed up with two touchdowns and out-targeted teammate Davante Adams.
Meyers appears to be an integral part of this team and a favorite of new Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo. While his Week 2 status is up in the air because of a potential concussion. He’s still worth adding as Jimmy G’s slot guy, so you just might have to wait a week.
Kendrick Bourne, Patriots (2% Rostered)
Eleven targets on a team with an unclear wide receiver pecking order? Sign me up. While Bourne seems like a boring roster clogging type of player to add, I’m throwing away everything we saw from the New England offense last year when Matt Patricia was calling plays, and that includes Bourne’s usage last season.
Bourne may be establishing himself as Mac Jones' favorite target. But Bourne will probably just be a contributor in an offense that infuriates fantasy managers and spreads the ball around (think a way less fun version of the Chiefs).
That being said, the Patriots head to Miami next weekend and I want the player who appears to be the odds on favorite as the top target for this team heading into what could be a shootout.
Rashee Rice, Chiefs (53% Rostered)
Check your waiver wire to see if this rookie is there. I’m not comfortable starting him this upcoming week (or any Chiefs’ wide receiver really) but there were signs Thursday night that Rice could separate himself as the No. 1 as the season progresses. If there’s evidence that a wide receiver could become a favorite target of Patrick Mahomes, you roster him.
Kyren Williams, Rams (6% Rostered)
Cam Akers had 22 carries to Kyren Williams’ 15, but in every other statistical category Williams had him beat. I don’t know what happened to the Akers we saw at the end of last season, but this is looking like a split backfield at best.
If the level of play from these two backs is similar in the coming weeks, I’d expect more and more of a shift toward Williams. Be wary of starting him next week against a solid 49ers defense.
Joshua Kelley (7% Rostered)
High. Value. Backup. Kelley’s 16 carries, 91 yards, and a TD this week communicated that not only is he the backup to roster behind Austin Ekeler, but he also has weekly startability as a flex play. There isn’t any real upside to Kelley – all of that belongs to his friend Ekeler, weekly fantasy production with the upside of filling in if there is an injury in front of him makes him a must add.
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons (57% Rostered)
Avert your eyes, Kyle Pitts and Drake London fans, because this Falcons’ offense is all about the run. Key beneficiary? Last year’s quietest 1,000-yard rusher, Allgeier. While he won’t outcarry Bijan Robinson much longer, he should have a continued role in this VERY rush heavy offense.
Similar to Kelley, the upside is capped because Bijan is holding onto most of it. But also similar to Kelley, Allgeier has weekly stand alone value and is a high value backup to Robinson.
Gus Edwards, Ravens (20% Rostered) /Justice Hill / Melvin Gordon
Edwards ‘should’ be the lead back in this Ravens offense with the unfortunate season ending injury to JK Dobbins in Week 1, but what we saw this weekend doesn’t necessarily support that. The Ravens split carries evenly between backs Edwards and Hill, with the goal line work confusingly going to Hill.
Of the backs here, I like Edwards. His career Yards Per Attempt is over 5 and he has the build to be the goalline back. Let your league mates bid up Hill on the waiver wire and snag the true lead back in Edwards.
It’s not a bad idea to throw a waiver claim on Gordon either. He’s being elevated from the practice squad and that’d be so very Ravens of this team to have Gordon lead the backfield.
Leonard Fournette / Kareem Hunt, free agents
These are luxury adds if you have the bench space. We were reminded in Week 1 about the fragility of the running back position. Injuries are inevitable. While not currently signed, I expect both of these backs to sign as team needs arise.
Preference goes to Fournette because he’s better, but both are decent stashes at this point in the season.
Hayden Hurst (12% Rostered)
Hurst is the best receiver on the Panthers. That says more about the other options there (sorry Terrace Marshall) than it does about Hurst, but the outcome is the same for fantasy: a tight end who could very well be the top target on his team is just sitting on the waiver wire in near 90% of leagues.
Opportunity is king for the TE position, and with rookie Bryce Young taking a liking to Hurst, the opportunity knows no limit (well, except for the limitations of this Panthers’ offense as a whole).
Zach Ertz, Cardinals (11% Rostered)
Gross, I know. But Ertz had 10 targets and it’s not something we can just ignore. While Kyler Murray is out at least, Ertz is a viable start on volume alone. Don’t get your hopes up though, those 10 targets turned into just six catches for 21 yards. 8.1 fantasy points is fine. If Ertz doesn’t catch a touchdown, you’re okay with it. If he does? You’re thrilled. That’s about all you can ask for from most fantasy TEs.
Brock Purdy, 49ers (51%)
Purdy made it clear the 49ers made the right decision in naming him the starter. That being said, being a good NFL quarterback and a good fantasy quarterback are two different things. If you need safety and consistency at QB, Purdy is a worthwhile add. If you need upside, he is not your guy.
Sam Howell, Commanders (23%)
Howell’s biggest gift to fantasy managers is the magic he can produce with his legs. We saw that on display with the rushing touchdown he brought in himself to add to the 202 yards passing and a TD he threw for. If you’re looking for upside on the waiver wire at the QB position, he’s your guy.
Jordan Love, Packers (39%)
Love balled out in the first game of the Aaron Rodgers-less Era. While only completing about half of his pass attempts (15/27), Love still had 245 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.
All this without presumed top pass catcher Christian Watson. While this is just one game against a subpar defense, what we saw could indicate Love is a top 12 fantasy QB just sitting on the waiver wire.
A breakdown of the fantasy hits and misses from Week 1
Week 1 of the NFL Season, we hardly knew ye. Just as we settled in to watch seven hours of commercial-free football followed by the Sunday night game, it was like we blinked, and you were already over.
You did leave us with some highs and lows before you left, and while some of our fantasy lineups may be in shambles, there’s a whole season left to turn things around. So without further ado, here is week 1’s no cap recap!
If you’re a Miami Dolphins backer, then you’re laughing all the way to the bank -- 536 total yards of offense. Miami kept Tua upright and he made the Chargers defense pay. Both Tagovailoa and Hill were stacked in the winning “Milly Maker” lineup from Sunday. With defense a non-factor, expect this stack to be a popular one. And for Jaylen Waddle fans, don’t worry! A quiet 78 yards was an efficient 78 yards as he averaged 19.5 yards per grab. Better days are ahead.
Ekeler’s running mate Josh Kelley almost put up 100 yards of his own and added a touchdown. But you could argue people expected more from Herbert after he only tossed for 1 touchdown (he ran for another) and none of his receivers went over 100 yards. Get to work, Kellen Moore.
In Pittsburgh, I’m not sure if Aiyuk was making Brock Purdy look like Montana and Young or Purdy was making Aiyuk look like Jerry Rice, but the duo was cooking. The 49ers did something you don’t see very often: they made Mike Tomlin’s group look unprepared.
Christian McCaffrey did CMC things on his way to 152 yards on the ground and a touchdown. George Kittle had a quiet game, but I’m not panicking on him yet. With health concerns coming in, I expect him to find that connection with Purdy again that made him a top-3 tight end in the final weeks of last season.
Death, taxes, and the Bears losing to the Packers. Those have been the guarantees since 2018 -- the last time Chicago got a win over the cheese. There was hope a Chicago streak could start with Aaron Rodgers out of the picture, but Jordan Love didn’t miss a beat.
What’s clear is Jones is the man in the Green Bay offense now more than ever. The Packers were in a lull before making the third quarter the Aaron Jones show. He scored twice in the quarter before an early exit with a hamstring issue. It will be something to monitor as his primary backup A.J. Dillon plodded his way to 19 yards on 13 carries.
Everyone in Atlanta was excited to see what first-round pick Bijan Robinson could do at running back. The kids like to say, “he ate,” but I’d call his performance more of a snack. The electricity was there and he got into the endzone for his first NFL score, but it was his backup who got a surprising amount of runs.
Allgeier may have been an afterthought for some, but he got more touches and yards than Robinson on the ground and secured two touchdowns of his own. Falcons coach Arthur Smith is famous for not thinking much of fantasy stats, but it certainly seems like both running backs will be start-able this season.
Los Angeles Rams runner Cam Akers was RB3 over the final six weeks of 2022. But that guy didn’t show up this weekend -- 29 yards on 22 carries. Instead, it was Kyren Williams carrying the Rams to an unexpected victory in Seattle. Will the real Cam Akers please stand up?
Dallas’ offense didn’t need to do that much during biblical rains in their game against the Giants, but their star running back still looked electric. Pollard averaged 5 yards per carry in the 40-0 beatdown of Big Blue. He added two catches for 12 yards, but that number should go up with better weather and an opponent that has more life than the Giants squad that got shut out.
As for the duds, there was probably no bigger disappointment than the entire Cincinnati Bengals roster. Whether you play season long or DFS, you probably targeted a Bengal especially after Joe Burrow got the big money deal. All he did was turn in the worst performance of his career after a preseason where he was rehabbing an injured calf and a rainstorm in Cleveland.
The Browns’ defense played well at every level, holding Burrow to 82 passing yards and no touchdowns while sacking him twice. Tee Higgins had zero catches on eight targets, and Ja’Marr Chase had only 39 yards.
I’m willing to bet this is an exception and not the norm, and I’m not ready to panic. Let’s see how they handle a Ravens team that just gave up 268 yards to the lowly Texans.
Fantasy Football Experts Stu (Montone) Durst, and Terrell Furman review all the NFL Week 8 games, give you all the Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 9 and recap the Monday Night Football Game between the Raiders and the Lions. Check the Fantasy Fire and Ice Podcast daily for injury updates, breaking NFL news, and player profiles.
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