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Mark "HiLowFF" Garcia gives a crash course on the Contrarian Edge Optimizer and how to use it to create you MNF Showdown lineups.
An optimizer is a powerful tool to harness in DFS play, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. Like any other tool, one must first learn how to wield an optimizer before its true power can be realized. That is exactly what we will look to sort through in this weekly series.
We’ll focus on the Contrarian Edge Optimizer to use for Monday Night Football this season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization and provide a sneak peek into the newest, and most dynamic optimizer in the industry.
Before manipulating any of the settings in the optimizer, I first like to export the projections via a comma-separated values document, which provides all the raw projections used by the optimizer for each player on the slate. Before continuing, it is important to understand what these values represent.
By definition, a median represents a projection whose final outcome would land above the projection and below the projection an equal 50 percent of the time. As such, the modeling in these algorithms can be back tested to find reliability indexes and tweak the algorithm to provide further accuracy.
The idea of median is difficult for the human brain to comprehend. We like things simple, direct and to the point – which is what median projections aim to provide. We must realize that these top-level values are a numerical representation of a range of outcomes for each player on a given slate.
This range of outcomes will be different shapes, sizes, and magnitudes for every player and becomes one of the better inputs to manipulate to alter the output from the optimizer. Give it a try! Run the optimizer without manipulating any of the median projections and see what it provides.
Then, manipulate just one player’s median to a 60 percent outcome (multiply the raw projection by six and divide by five) and run the optimizer again to see how that changes the output in roster form. Higher on a player on a given slate than the median projections are accounting for? Bump their value in the CSV within their range of outcomes and see how the optimizer responds! And best of all, the directions to complete this step in the process are readily available in the top-level of the optimizer design.
Predictive analytics utilizes statistical modeling methods to predict future outcomes. In other words, predictive analytics attempts to utilize machine learning algorithms to create predictive models. With the optimizer, the behind-the-scenes work has been done for us, but we can manipulate the outputs by changing inputs as previously discussed.
Variance in Median Projections
The best way to visualize a range of outcomes projection, assuming we are provided with a median projection, is to utilize a bell curve. This bell curve will be situated about the median with an array of potential outcomes. Most bell curves are symmetrical about the median, but some players carry an asymmetrical distribution of values within their broader range. These players, largely considered “low floor-high ceiling” plays, are some of the most difficult to predict and project due to their lopsided array.
Median projections must also account for ambiguity in certain situations. For example, there is significant ambiguity associated with the Buffalo Bills and the expected snap rates for players from the slot. Deonte Harty, Khalil Shakir, Trent Sherfield, and rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid could all see slot usage, but the optimizer must account for these wide ranges of potential outcomes and display it through median projections in numerical form. This introduces significant variance in those projections, something we can look to manipulate to harness in our favor.
In numerical models, these statistical anomalies are best represented through standard deviation – but we can do things to manipulate these players manually in the optimizer.
First, select “Set Pro Options” on the top left of your screen in the optimizer. Next, toggle “Auto Ownership Bonus” in the dropdown menu. This function is used to set an ownership threshold and bonus to encourage the inclusion of players that are less owned, leveraging the variance associated with median projections and ownership values.
This functionality will also help to harness the second major statistical input to the modeling – expected ownership. Since the game of football includes high rates of variance, ownership projections are a valuable input to leverage in the process. These ownership bonus thresholds can be manipulated to increase or decrease exposure to variance.
Let’s put these practices in action for Week 1 using the Contrarian Edge Optimizer. We’ll focus on the ambiguity with the expected slot snap rates from the Buffalo Bills, alter inputs, and see the outputs from those deviations. We won’t be able to see the full roster outputs for obvious reasons (the optimizer is a paid tool), but we should be able to conceptualize the effects of these manipulations.
I changed the projection of Deonte Harty to an 80 percent outcome, accounting for the potential for him to see a slot snap rate that is higher than his expectation, imported the new data into the optimizer and ran the simulation without adjusting any other values or manipulating any of the Pro Options.
Deonte Harty returned as the optimal Captain in that run, at 0.6 percent expected ownership. Doing the same for Dalton Kincaid returns him as the optimal Captain. The same can be done in the other direction to account for outcomes below median projection, which is useful for variant acts like injuries and matchup induced outliers.
The first installment in this series was broader and more conceptual than it will be in the future, but hopefully it helped to establish a foundational and working knowledge of the power of the optimizer and how to manipulate top-level statistical inputs. From here on out, we’ll get into the optimizer on a deeper level. Best of luck in Week 1 and we’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards!
Great analysis on whom to play on the first SNF of the season
We’ve made it to our first Sunday Night Football game of the 2023 season. It’s been a long summer waiting for Carrie Underwood to bless our televisions again, and it’s one of the NFL’s best rivalries --the New York Giants vs the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, 8:20 p.m. ET
Line: Cowboys -3.5
Moneyline: Cowboys -180, Giants +150
Over/Under: 45.5 points
Cowboys
Points for: 26.8 PPG (4th)
Points allowed: 19.7 (6th)
Giants
Points for: 21.2 (18th)
Points allowed: 22.8 (22nd)
Cowboys
Giants
The Smiths make up the left side of the Cowboys’ offensive line. If both can’t go, the Giants’ pass rush may have a greater impact than we expect. The Cowboys’ run game may also not be as effective. Tyler Smith is the more likely of the two to not suit up.
Waller was a late addition to the injury report and was likely injured during practice. He is a game-time decision as the Giants are expected to test out the hamstring before the game. Waller has a history of hamstring issues, so expect the G-Men to tread lightly with an entire season ahead.
If Waller were to sit, Daniel Bellinger and Lawrence Cager would slide into prominent tight end roles.
Despite coming off the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list ahead of the season, Robinson will need more time to recover before he is a full go.
Captain Prices
Flex Prices
Tony Pollard is taking over lead running back duties in Dallas. With Ezekiel Elliott no longer an option, Pollard should have ample opportunity to put his stamp on the offense. He had ankle surgery in the offseason, but all signs point to him being the bell cow that fantasy managers have been clamoring for since 2021.
Pollard gets to kick off the season against a Giants run defense that allowed the second-most yards per carry (5.2), the sixth-most rushing yards per game (144), and the most yards per reception to backs. For the explosive Pollard, who can turn any play into a house call, this is a great recipe to start the season.
As mentioned earlier, the Cowboys’ offensive line could be in trouble on the left side. The Giants’ defense is young, but on the interior Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence can make it a long night for Dak Prescott.
If Kayvon Thibodeaux makes a leap in his second season, the Giants’ pass rush can be a force. This would help mask their youth at DB, as they are expected to start two rookie cornerbacks.
If Waller does indeed make his debut, expect him to produce at an elite level. The Dallas defense allowed touchdown passes at the fourth highest rate last season. They allowed nine of those from the slot, and Waller is a menace from there. He ran 60 percent of his routes last season from the slot for the Raiders.
CeeDee Lamb should be busy, and likely is the captain worth paying for in your lineups. Our Contrarian Edge Optimizer projects Lamb for the third most fantasy points overall in Week 1. He flat out torched the Giants’ secondary last season on a 37% target share in those games.
The Giants’ defense loves to blitz. They blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL last season (43% of the time), which will leave Lamb to eat up one-on-one matchups.
Brandin Cooks, Cowboys WR -- $7,200
Cooks is fascinating. He’s now on his fourth NFL team, and in his first season with every team he had at least 1,000 yards. The veteran is entering his 10th season and he’s still only 29. Reports out of Cowboys camp all summer was how shockingly explosive Cooks was on his routes.
The Giants are starting rookies Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins at cornerback. If the pass rush can’t impact Prescott, Cooks could torch a NYG secondary that allowed the sixth-highest yards per target last season. According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Cooks projects for the lowest ownership among the top names on Sunday night.
Jake Ferguson, Cowboys TE -- $4,800
Ferguson fills the void left by Dalton Schultz, who left in free agency to the Texans. The former fourth-round pick will likely be Dak’s new receiving option at tight end until rookie second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker proves he’s ready.
Ferguson has run-after-the-catch ability, which he flashed last season. Dak’s TEs have accrued at least 90 targets each season in his career. At 6’5’’, Ferguson is a valuable red zone threat.
Parris Campbell, Giants WR -- $4,400
This is strictly a matchup-based play. If Waller is ruled out, it would be wise to get Campbell into the lineup, with the Cowboys being vulnerable guarding the slot. The Dallas defense is strong on the outside with Trevon Diggs and newly acquired former Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore.
Expect Giants quarterback Daniel Jones to utilize quick throws to the veteran Campbell to avoid the pass rush of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. We saw how Jones utilized slot man Richie James last season. Why not Parris in 2023?
Many believe in these Cowboys, who have one of the best two-way rosters in the NFL, to be a strong NFC contender. Some analysts are even picking them to win the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the underdog G-Men are chomping at the bit to repeat their 2022 success.
The Cowboys have defeated the Giants four straight times, and the only victory Daniel Jones has over the Cowboys came in Week 18 back in 2020 in a game Dak Prescott didn’t play in.
I expect that trend to continue tonight. The Giants’ youth in the secondary versus the Cowboys’ veteran wide receivers will prove too much to overcome.
Cowboys 27, Giants 20
Stu "Monotone" Durst breaks down his favorite Anytime TD Parlay of the week and looks at a couple longshots that could hit paydirt.
Every week I’ll be examining the touchdown market, and putting together a parlay of my favorite selections. Along the way, you’ll also get a couple longshot selections that are worth some beer money. Week 1 normally has pretty efficient pricing in this market, but I’m expecting to find some great value this season.
Antonio Gibson has been one of my favorite touchdown looks all week. While he and Brian Robinson will both compete for those red zone angles, I think there is room for everyone to score! Robinson profiles as the higher-volume rusher, but even last year, when Gibson was bordering on irrelevancy, he managed to be a red zone threat despite the low overall volume. Now combine that with how Eric Bieniemy used McKinnon in the red zone last year, and I’m feeling pretty good about Gibson's chances to be heavily involved. He has always been very efficient in the red zone, and his receiving + rushing abilities open up the playbook and make the defense respect his receiving chops.
A.J. Brown is always a player I like targeting, and I think he profiles to dominate this weekend. While Hurts is usually the only Eagle I focus on in the red zone, I think the Patriots' pass-rushing core with Judon/Uche represents a little more of a unique matchup, with more speed than any other pass-rushing LB core in the league. Judon led the league in sacks on scrambles, while Uche finished 5th. They are in a better place than most to contain Hurts. Additionally, coaches have had a whole season to game plan against the QB sneak play, and I would hope Coach Bill has a plan for that. Brown has dominant numbers against man coverage, and the Patriots played the third-most man coverage snaps last season. I always express the importance of WRs having the capability to score both inside and outside of the redzone, and we know Brown is one of the few guys who can do both at a high level.
Editor's Note: Place your DFS lineups with confidence with Fantasy Sports Logic's Contrarian Edge Optimizer. This incredibly robust tool features projections from several industry leaders, but also blends them together in a separate proprietary set of projections. Take a 7-day test drive for just $1 and check out features like Contrarian Mode, Stack Attack, upload custom projections and much more!
J.K. Dobbins is another target I like on Sunday, and I’m surprised he’s priced above even money across the board. This is one of those situations where Baltimore should dominate. Not only were the Texans unimpressive in the preseason, and they still have a number of question marks around who is even starting. Baltimore is the heaviest favorite on the board and will be the most popular survivor selection. While I'm a big fan of Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins is the clear starter for this lineup. The Ravens are expected to throw a lot this season, but once we get in the red zone, I expect a heavy dose of Dobbins. Working with one of the highest implied team totals on the slate doesn’t hurt; we will have plenty of opportunities.
Week 1 TD Parlay: Antonio Gibson/AJ Brown/JK Dobbins +1430 DK
Ingold became the second-highest paid fullback in the league and is another one of my longshot selections. The Chargers were one of the worst rush defenses in football last season and are expected to struggle once again. We already saw creative usage from Ignold in preseason, and Mike McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, which utilizes the position more than any other team around. With the Dolphins being so low on running backs, and this being the highest total game of the weekend, I think there are plenty worse bets to make.
And if you want an absolutely degenerate TD to sprinkle, then I'll be going with Cole Turner at +1500 on FanDuel. The second-year TE is absolutely huge, was a great red-zone weapon in college and formed a very good connection with Howell in preseason. The Ghost of Logan Thomas is playing with negative ACLs, and I think Turner is involved early! Good price, here.
Terrell Furman hits us with his values in DFS for week 1
Value Finders
If you want a chance to take down your DFS contest, then you are going to have to find the
diamonds in the rough. Getting big value production for a lower price is the difference between
a good team and a great one!
This article will serve as a place to find those roses growing from the concrete and take down
your DFS contest. Now, these guys are not going to carry your team, but they will anchor them
with solid production at a great cost (all salaries courtesy of DraftKings).
QB: Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints ($5,300, QB18 at cost)
The only thing that was more shocking than putting ‘New Orleans Saints’ after Carr’s name, was
the fact that he is the QB18 at cost. This is a guy who is not afraid to push the ball downfield. He
now has the weapons--with a healthy Michael Thomas and Chris Olave, who is looking to build
upon a great rookie year. We have yet to mentioned they are playing a Titans’ defense that
gave up the THIRD most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position in 2022! This
secondary still projects to be bad, and Carr should take advantage in a dome environment.
RB: Deon Jackson, Indianapolis Colts ($4,100, RB35 at cost)
This is surprising, yet not shocking, many will have to google who Deon Jackson is. The
hardcore Degens remember. We remember WELL! In Johnathan Taylor’s absence last season vs
the Jaguars, Jackson finished as the RB1!!! With Zack Moss downgraded to doubtful (arm),
Jackson slides into the starting role against those same Jaguars. The Jaguars bring back the
same defense that allowed Jackson to torch them for ten catches for 79 yards and a
touchdown. This is also the same defense that gave up the second most receiving yards to
running backs in 2022. Anthony Richardson electing to extend plays with his legs rather than
check down passes is a concern, but at this price, I love Jackson to have a solid fantasy day.
WR: Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers ($4,400, WR35 at cost)
The Packers released their first injury report with their top two wide receivers questionable
with hamstring injuries. Christian Watson was later ruled out and Romeo Doubs was optimistic
to play. Doubs has flashed in spurts during last year, however, injuries have been his downfall. If
you trust the optimism of the coaching staff that his injury is minor, then we should feel confident Doubs has proven he
can step up without Watson in the lineup. In three games without Watson last season, Doubs
racked up nine catches 109 yards and two touchdowns averaging 12.5 fantasy points. This game
not only will he not have Watson, but also no Allen Lazard or Randall Cobb who jumped ship
with Aaron Rodgers. Expect a very productive day for Doubs.
TE: Hayden Hurst, Carolina Panthers ($3,000, TE24 at cost)
Welcome back to the Carolinas Hayden! They are excited to have you! As much like the Packers
they were decimated by the early injury report, i.e. D.J. Chark already ruled out and
Adam Thielen is questionable with an ankle injury. Terrace Marshall Jr. was also limited
majority of the week with a back injury. Hurst may find himself as a huge value at tight end, simply
because there are not many other options for a rookie Bryce Young. Rookie quarterbacks tend
to rely heavy on their tight ends for check downs and safe passes--so this is more of a volume
play for me. Hurst could stumble into a heavy target day against an Atlanta Falcons defense
that allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game to the tight end position last year. The big dog has got to eat week 1, fire up the kibble!
Happy money hunting!
A breakdown of the NFL players probably worth avoiding
Just to preface, I’m not saying I don’t like the guys I list down below – I don’t like them at cost. If you can find cheaper alternatives, and ideally more production, then by all means!
Starting today, every Friday I’ll be dropping my list of DFS ‘fades’, so be sure to check back in and stay tapped in throughout the season so you know who to insert and NOT to insert in your lineups (all salaries courtesy of DraftKings).
Just ranked outside of the top 10 as far as QB salaries, Stafford is a guy I’m staying far and away from. Not only will he be without his favorite target in Cooper Kupp, he’ll be going up against one-time teammate Bobby Wagner, who’ll surely have inside information on some of the things the Rams like to do offensively.
In addition, Stafford and the Rams are playing in a hostile environment in Seattle with an unproven group of wide receivers and a questionable offensive line. Not to mention, with LAR-SEA being an in-division affair, points could be at a premium. You can do a lot better than Stafford at QB in your lineups for this weekend.
Statistically speaking, Mattison is set to go up against the wall that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense. As stout as they get, I’m not sure Mattison is going to find much running room, especially when he’s not the most explosive back (career yards per carry average of 4.1).
Volume will be there, I’m just not sure the efficiency and passing down work will be. Given the cost, you’re better off saving some money and going with a cheaper alternative who has an easier matchup.
I like Michael Pittman a lot more in real life than I do in fantasy as a wide receiver. Yes, he’s the Colts’ No. 1, but is the volume going to be there in what’s expected to be a run-heavy offense?
Also, how accurate will Anthony Richardson be in the pros? Having displayed a lot of chemistry with fellow rookie Josh Downs, I’m not sure the chemistry will be there right away with Pittman given the other options at pass catcher.
Kittle is another player I adore more in real life than I do in fantasy. While Brock Purdy altered that narrative somewhat with his penchant for targeting Kittle in the latter portion of the season last year, Kittle has been nursing a groin injury & more likely than not won’t be at 100%.
Yes, Kittle is one of the toughest players in the NFL and has a tendency to play injured, but given the dearth of options at Purdy’s disposal, coupled with the fact that Pittsburgh’s defense is no joke (not to mention, Heinz Field will be a very hostile environment) I’m staying away from Kittle this week, especially at a salary just south of $6,000 on top of the fact that there’s a bunch of tight ends flying under the radar.
Hamstring injuries can be tricky, and they tend to linger too (ask Cooper Kupp). Given the nature of that, I suspect the Broncos will keep Jeudy on a pitch count IF he even plays.
The matchup might be juicy against the Raiders & their porous secondary, but his health is not & won’t be until Week 2 at the earliest. There are plenty of receivers you can insert into your lineups that are not only cheaper, but that are 100% healthy. (Jahan Dotson anyone?)
Fill out your DFS roster with some of these inexpensive options
At long last, our first taste of non-preseason NFL football in seven months. A big shoutout to the Lions for showing the world they’re no longer “the same Lions” (Philly lost a good one in C.J. Gardner-Johnson by the way). I don’t care that the Chiefs didn’t have Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, they’re the defending Super Bowl champs for crying out loud!
Thankfully, the full NFL slate is ahead of us, with 15 matchups to go in Week 1. Starting today, I’ll be here every week giving you guys the best bargains when setting your DFS lineups to help give you the best bang for your buck! (all salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
The second-cheapest QB you can possibly plug into your lineups, Howell and the Commanders have the best possible matchup against a Arizona Cardinals team that’s expected to be the worst in the NFL.
After trading 25-year old Isaiah Simmons – who still has his best football in front of him – for the measly cost of a 7th-round pick to the Giants, it’s obvious the Cardinals are “tanking.”
With star WR Terry McLaurin expected to play (toe), Howell will have his full allotment of weapons, and you can’t forget his legs! With his mobility, his upside is a lot higher than what his price tag would indicate. Start the former UNC star with confidence.
With fellow RB Ken Walker nursing a groin injury and having been limited at practice this week, Charbonnet should have ample opportunity in his rookie debut if Seattle opts to play it safe with Walker’s workload.
Being that the Hawks are a 5.5-point favorite at home against the Rams, the game script could be in favor of Seattle, meaning more potential opportunities for Charbonnet. He also offers more value in his ability to catch passes out of the backfield.
One more nugget to note: Intra-division matchups between the Rams and Seahawks typically result in lower-scoring slugfests. Do with that what you will.
Although fellow receiver Terry McLaurin is expected to play in Week 1 despite having suffered turf toe a few weeks ago in the preseason, I don’t expect him to be at 100 percent. If that’s the case and Washington builds a commanding lead (no pun intended) early, I’d expect Washington to play it safe and preserve his long-term health by sitting him out the remainder of the game.
With that being a likely scenario given that Arizona’s roster is in shambles, Jahan Dotson should absolutely FEAST as Howell’s bonafide No. 1 WR. Having got off to a hot start in his rookie season last year with Carson Wentz at quarterback (4 TDs in his first 4 games), Dotson has shown a tendency to get open in the red zone and has showcased plenty of chemistry with Howell. I’m starting Dotson in ALL FORMATS of fantasy, daily or not.
Injuries to fellow teammates seem to be a theme here, and I promise that was unintentional. In a matchup against a Raiders secondary that statistically speaking was one of the worst in the NFL last season, Courtland Sutton will be Russell Wilson’s No. 1 target whether or not Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) plays. (Jeudy won’t be at 100% and the chances of re-injury are real given the nature of lower body injuries like that).
While divisional matchups tend to be lower-scoring, Sean Payton, Russell Wilson and the Broncos have something to prove. Expect Sutton to be the primary beneficiary of that as he’s also been reportedly having the best training camp of his career.
Maybe we were all just a year early on Sutton? People forget that Sutton compiled a 1,000-yard receiving season in just his second season in the NFL in 2019, so the talent has always been there. Now he has both the talent, situation and head coach/play-caller.
With an over/under line of 47.5, there will be a lot of points scored between Cincinnati and Cleveland in an AFC North showdown. Typically, I love rostering/starting players that are expected to partake in shootouts, and Njoku should reap the benefits of such.
At 6-4, 246 pounds, with a 4.64 40-yard dash, Watson has never had such an athletic target at tight end. Also a guy that’s expected to receive plenty of volume in the red zone, I’d be surprised if Njoku didn’t finish at the top 10 at his position this week.
With a salary at just 3K, this rookie wideout should have ample opportunity with a team who runs 11 personnel more than any other team in the NFL!
Factor in the fact that Cooper Kupp will not be playing in Seattle, Nacua should be able to outplay his cost. If you’re looking for a dart throw at receiver, look no further than Nacua (just ask Matthew Stafford).
Stu 'Monotone' Durst uses the Sportstopia DFS Optimizer to analyze prizepick props
The NFL season is finally here, and I couldn’t be happier! Every single week, I’ll be placing an Underdog/PrizePicks entry and breaking down each prop with analysis and key stats that will help you make money. Additionally, I will be using the Sportstopia DFS optimizer to guide my research, which you can sign up for!
One of the first props that immediately jumped off the page to me was Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions. While deciding between yards and receptions can be tough for a high-end receiver like Hill, he led the league in WR catches behind the line of scrimmage last season, which gives him a safer floor than most.
Additionally, the Dolphins have the most consantrated offense in football, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle making up more or their teams receiving more production than any other combo in the league!
This Dolphins-Chargers matchup sets up to be one of the highest scoring on the slate, and what better way to take advantage than by betting on the most explosive player in the game. Hill went over this number in 10 games last season, and 8/13 games with Tua averaging 7.2 receptions and 10.5 targets. I think this high tempo setup gives us plenty of opportunities today.
If you’ve heard me talk about Tua this offseason, you’ve probably heard the term "regression" in the same sentence. While he was the best QB in the league throwing over the middle, teams caught on and started to sell out defending that part of the field.
Forcing Tua to throw more to the boundaries is where the mistakes started, and I expect defenses to be ready for that. When he saw Tua struggle more, who did he look into? His number one target Tyreek Hill.
One of the best ways to use these apps like PrizePicks is by comparing their lines to traditional sportsbooks. Nick Chubb is currently -160 to -190 on every major book to score, yet he’s available to place here on PrizePicks, which is rarely the case for a prop with those odds.
Additionally, they normally only offer "rushing TD" but this includes receiving and passing, which is a big deal considering Kareem Hunt is out of town and Chubb would potentially earn some additional receiving work.
Chubb is already one of the best backs in the league, running behind an elite offensive line. He has a great history against Cincinnati as well, recording 916 total yards and 8 TDs over the course of nine career games.
Kareem Hunt has always been a great red zone back, averaging 6 TDs per year over his last 6 seasons with the Browns, but he’s left town, and there is nobody left to replace him.
My Washington Commanders are currently -7-point favorites, likely for the only time this season. This means that this is likely the best game-script possible for Robinson, going against the team that is likely to end the season with the number one overall pick in the draft.
This Cardinals defense was a mess last season, and got significantly worse on defense losing JJ Watt, Zach Allen, and Marcus Golden from their line. This Cardinals defense is one of the worst week 1 units I’ve seen in awhile, and I expect the Washington backs to take advantage early and often.
Robinson was 8-4 to the over last season, despite returning very quickly from a gunshot injury. He averaged 17 carries per game, slowly begun to improve in efficiency metrics as he got healthier deep into the season.
Now that he’s got a full offseason to prep, I expect Robinson to look much better then he did last season. I was not a fan of his game at first, but his volume is secure, and he’s looked better and better as he’s been given time to heal and improve.
This is a smash spot for the second year back, and I look forward to fading Arizona often this season.
Finally PrizePicks has a promo for Dak Prescott to throw for 1 passing yard. This a reminder that these apps are posting tons of great promotions, and it’s our job to make them regret it! Always be vigilant for discounts and deals when you’re winning on the margins!
Chris Crawford breaks down the best DFS options for the Thursday Night football opener between the Lions and Chiefs.
We’re finally here. After an eventful offseason that saw plenty of drama that helped satiate our cravings for on-field action, we’re now ready to kick off the 2023 season with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Detroit Lions on Thursday.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. ET
Line: Chiefs - 4.5
Moneyline: Chiefs +180, Lions -218
Over/Under: 53 points
Chiefs
Points for: 29.2 PPG (1st)
Points allowed: 21.7 (16th)
Lions
Points for: 26.6 (5th)
Points allowed: 25.1 (28th)
Chiefs
Kelce’s is one of the biggest injuries to monitor throughout the regular season. The KC tight end hyperextended his knee in practice Tuesday and is still dealing with inflammation.
The good news is Kansas City believes the all-everything TE won’t miss considerable time, but with a short week of practice and 16 games to play after the opener, it wouldn’t be a shock if the Chiefs decided to take things slow.
With Kelce out, Noah Gray will likely get most of the snaps in his place, and he’s an intriguing -- if risky -- play for what could be a high-scoring affair.
Toney doesn’t have an injury designation, but the speedy wideout was limited early because of a knee issue, and it may prevent him from playing a full complement of snaps tonight.
It’s not injury-related, but the Chiefs will also be without Chris Jones, who’s still holding out for a contract extension. He’s one of the NFL’s best defensive linemen, and his ability to rush the passer will likely be missed Thursday.
Lions
The only player with an injury designation is defensive back Emmanuel Moseley, who has been ruled out with a knee injury. That means likely more playing time for Khalil Dorsey and Steven Gilmore but isn’t likely to play a major factor in the game.
Mahomes is the biggest name in football, and even if he is missing his favorite target in Kelce, there’s reason to believe he’ll have another monster game at Arrowhead. The 27-year-old has gotten off to hot starts in the previous two seasons, including a five-touchdown effort against the Cardinals in 2022 and 337 yards along with three passing scores vs the Browns in 2021.
The Lions ranked 30th in pass yards allowed, 31st in net yards per attempt and 23rd in passing touchdowns in 2022. Although the Detroit D should be improved, this is a tough task and an easy reason to play Mahomes. As if you needed one.
Gibbs will be making his NFL debut after the Lions surprisingly drafted the him 12th out of Alabama. The Lions will likely use Montgomery in a similar -- if not carbon copy -- mode to how they used Jamaal Williams in 2022.
But Detroit is going to make Gibbs a big part of the offense early and often, even if Montgomery might vulture a touchdown or four away from him in the 2023 campaign. And again, remember that the Chiefs won’t have Jones to help with either the run or pass defense.
St. Brown is going to be a target fiend again in 2023, but there are question marks about how the rest of the targets will look for Goff and the Detroit offense. Jones Jr. and Josh Reynolds are options that have had flashes of competence in their time in the league -- Jones Jr. obviously on a more consistent basis than Reynolds -- but neither represent an option that is going to keep teams from keying in on St. Brown.
While Goff was among the most improved players in the NFL last year, his lack of consistency from season-to-season and a supporting cast that doesn’t quite compete with the best make this a risky offense to target in DFS.
Sam LaPorta, TE, DET $6500 (FanDuel)
The Lions draft LaPorta 35th out of tight end generator Iowa. In 2022, the Chiefs were in the bottom 10 in allowing fantasy points to tight ends, as several players were able to find room in the middle of the field against Kansas City, especially in those games where Kansas City was able to put up points and made the passing game a necessary option.
Playing a rookie tight end is risky, but it wouldn’t be a major surprise if LaPorta came away with a receiving score in his first professional opportunity.
Sky Moore, WR, KC $7700 (DraftKings)
Moore did not exactly pile up the fantasy points in 2023 during his rookie season, with just 33 targets and only 250 yards and no scores. He was a second-round selection by the Chiefs in 2022 thanks in large part to his speed, and no QB gets the ball downfield better than Mahomes.
Moore offers breakout potential with a chance to get off to a nice start with a friendly matchup tonight.
Noah Gray, TE, KC $3,600 (DraftKings)
Much of Gray’s value depends on whether or not Kelce plays. But even if he does, maybe consider Gray at this price point. It seems unlikely the Chiefs will risk their best non-Mahomes weapon for a full amount of snaps even if he is active, and Gray is fourth among returning players for the Chiefs in receptions with 28.
It’s a bit of a contrarian play if Kelce is in the lineup, but contrarian plays are often the ones that help DFS players finish with a good amount of cash.
The Lions were one of the scrappiest teams in the NFL in 2022 under coach Dan Campbell, and the Chiefs could be without one of the true difference-makers in the sport in Kelce. Still, there’s a generational quarterback starting for Kansas City at home, so I’ll take the Chiefs to cover in what should be an entertaining way to open the season.
Chiefs 35, Lions 28
Fantasy Football Experts Stu (Montone) Durst, and Terrell Furman review all the NFL Week 8 games, give you all the Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 9 and recap the Monday Night Football Game between the Raiders and the Lions. Check the Fantasy Fire and Ice Podcast daily for injury updates, breaking NFL news, and player profiles.
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