Steezy A. gives you his fades for Week 6
I’ve mentioned this before, but I’m really starting to believe that a few of my weekly readers include the very players I write about.
They say to treat your wins like your losses - it’s all temporary! Now let’s forge ahead and fade ‘em up - Steezy A style (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel).
Anytime a rookie QB is missing one of his more explosive playmakers (Tank Dell is out with a concussion) against one of best defenses in the NFL, you question whether or not he’ll be able to put up the requisite numbers necessary to make a dent in fantasy lineups.
In week 6, the rookie sensation is set to go up against a defense that ranks fifth in the NFL with the fewest points allowed, at 15.2 and rank in the top 5/10 in a bunch of other categories.
While Stroud is well ahead of schedule in his development, it won’t look that way against the Saints, who have made every QB that they have played against this season look below average (with the exception of Baker Mayfield).
One more thing to note: the Saints defense has only allowed one team to score north of 20 points this season, which means that Texans fans and players alike are going to be in for a really long Sunday.
Fade Stroud this week, but don’t expect to see him in this column a lot moving forward.
Zack Moss has been on a TEAR ever since entering the lineup in Week 2, but will that continue the more Jonathan Taylor gets acclimated with each passing day?
Not to mention, while the Jaguars defense hasn’t been a world-beater this season, they do rank fifth in the NFL with the fewest rushing yards allowed per game, at 81.6.
While Moss has surprised us with his contributions in the pass game, expect Taylor to soak up some of those targets as he’s an underrated pass catcher in his own right.
At RB11, that’s too high of a cost for a guy who's expected to split more of the workload with his backfield mate.
Moss can still have a solid fantasy day, but finishing as a borderline RB1 play?
I don’t see it.
Statistically speaking, the Seahawks defense against the pass hasn’t been pretty this season.
However, once you sprinkle in a little bit of context, you begin to understand why the pass defense statistics look as bad as they do.
Now, by no means am I arguing that the Seahawks secondary is elite, but they have yet to operate any game this season at full health. Against Cincinnati, the secondary will be the healthiest it's been all season long with safety Jamal Adams and CB Tre Brown both set to make their returns from concussions.
Not only that, but reports are that Higgins could be dealing with his rib injury for the rest of the season, which could mean that Cincinnati could look to lessen his workload just a little bit (remember, he’s looking to get PAID so I have a hard time believing that’ll he jeopardize his ability to do just that throughout the course of this season).
In what could be a potential shootout for the Seahawks, you are taking a risk with fading Higgins here. At the same time, he’s a game-time decision himself so there’s a chance he doesn’t even play. As we’ve seen in the past, Higgins has been active for games in which he barely even saw the field, which could also play a factor here in Week 6.
Given all of that uncertainty, you’re better off starting someone else at WR this week.
As tough as it is to fade a player who just scored nearly 30 points in fantasy last week (on three receptions, mind you), we operate off of logic and not emotions here in this column.
That 27.7 point-performance aside, George Kittle only has one other double-digit performance in fantasy this season, and that came against a horrid Giants defense.
On the season (out of 5 games played so far), Kittle has three games with four or less targets and three games with 30 or less receiving yards.
That’s just the reality of the team that he plays for, which is in no way a knock on Kittle at all.
The 30-year-old is one of the very best the NFL has to offer at TE, but he’s one of those guys who’s a much better REAL-LIFE player than he is a fantasy player. He’ll have his weeks (he just did last week after all) but given the dearth of options in San Francisco’s arsenal on top of their propensity to run the football and keep him in-line, he’s not a set-it and forget-it starter at TE like his real-life status might suggest.
As for the cherry on top, the Cleveland Browns defense is a top 10 unit as far as least number of points allowed to TE’s, and weather could also potentially impact each team’s ability to move the football down the field via the pass. That said, Kittle is an easy fade for me this week.
To add insult to injury, Jerome Ford’s Browns will now be operating WITHOUT starting QB Deshaun Watson, who was just recently ruled out vs the 49ers.
That alone already makes a middling offense that much more difficult to trust when it comes to being able to move the football against one of the most formidable (if not the most formidable) defense in the National Football League in the San Francisco 49ers.
While potentially inclement weather on Sunday in Cleveland could mean more opportunities for Ford to run the football, a negative game script is more likely to dampen his statistical output more than anything.
And do we trust P.J. Walker to take command and operate Kevin Stefanski’s offense?
There are plenty of RB’s OUTSIDE of the top 20 (at cost) that would make more compelling plays in DFS, such as James Cook (RB22) - who I outlined as a bargain in my Week 6 ‘Bargain Bin’ column.
Be sure to check out our website at sportstopia.io for that article as well as all of our other articles from all of our analysts!
Longtime scout and DFS expert breaks down TNF
Intro: I watch every NFL game live, then watch it again on tape for scouting Fantasy/DFS and future betting (player props) purposes. And like a restaurant or movie ‘critic’, I’m here to report my critiques of this nationally televised game -- pro and con.
Let’s take a look at what I witnessed, the good and the bad, in the Broncos-Chiefs game on Thursday night.
Always a worst when you don’t win the top prize.
It’s been two straight TNFs without winning for the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, after winning a share of top prize in back-to-back weeks. It felt like it was getting easy, so now it’s frustrating when we aren’t treating DraftKings like a personal ATM machine weekly.
But the Optimizer will be back at DFS prize fighting all day Sunday and then for MNF. The million-dollar first-prize chase never sleeps!
I was so excited to watch this game for the Fantasy impact. I have plenty of shares in Isiah Pacheco, Patrick Mahomes andTravis Kelce in every Fantasy format there is – Redraft, Dynasty, Best Ball. I got my parmesan garlic flavored popcorn and a tall Sprite Zero and settled in to watch a ton of KC offense ... and a ton of Travis Kelce commercials!
13-0 at the half? 19-8 final? Harrison Butker was nearly the top scoring Fantasy ‘thing’ in the game (that I have almost no FF shares in).
Dominant performance by the unit that has been the best for the Chiefs this season. You knew Denver had little chance to convert on any third down. So many times, the third-down plays were halted via a sack or flush of Russell Wilson out of the pocket. KC has held all six opponents this season to 20 or fewer offensive points.
Some of what made the KC defense look so good was Denver's ineptitude. Wilson looks totally checked out or overthinking. His O-Line is weak, his wide receivers are poor. Sean Payton is supposed to be an offensive guru?
A bonus BEST to Pete Carroll and John Schnieder for dumping Wilson at the perfect time for a heist from Denver, in retrospect.
The Chiefs have scored 20 or fewer points in half of their games. This passing attack looks out of sync has no weapons when Kelce is not involved. Denver has been getting run over by everyone, but not the Chiefs in this game. not by the Chiefs this game. Mahomes did throw for 300-plus yards, but you wouldn’t have guessed it from watching the game or the tape after -- several red zone failures and blown 3rd-down conversion attempts.
The Chiefs' offense has been a giant letdown. The countdown to the Chiefs trading for a WR by the trade deadline is on.
The Broncos will be selling their two starting WRs in the next few days or weeks -- and possibly one of them to KC since Denver faces the Chiefs one last time this season in Week 8. They could send Courtland Sutton over as a mercenary for the rest of 2023 and not worry about the whole intradivision trade taboo.
The problem with the Broncos' WR fire sale is, they're mediocre. Denver tried trading Jeudy-Sutton in the preseason, but no one cared.
Denver can keep them both and let them go to free agency in 2024 and get third-round compensatory picks. What team would give higher than a third-round pick?
Only a sucker would trade big for Jerry Jeudy and give him a deal extension, so watch out for the Panthers as buyers there.
Watching Swift react like she just saw a real-life unicorn appear whenever Kelce catches a simple pass made me wonder – I wish I had someone in my life cheering on me completing basic functions of my job.
My wife doesn’t even read my articles, not a one in decades of work. But Swift looks like parents watching their young child hit a game-winning home run in a youth baseball game whenever Kelce does anything.
We all could use a Taylor Swift in our lives, on so many levels. I don’t have that. The closest I get is I use a Swiftfer to clean my kitchen floor from time-to-time, at my wife’s request (demand). And she’s not cheering me on like a trained seal as I do it.
AT LEAST my bet of KC -10.5 came through with some late luck.
I thought for sure KC would run the clock out and win by eight when they approached their final drive and blow the cover making this game experience even more ‘nothing’ for me. I was praying KC wouldn’t convert their last third-down attempt from field goal range, and thus need to kick the three-pointer to go up by 11 and then hold Denver.
KC didn’t convert, but the cosmic twist was Mahomes got sacked to create a very long field-goal attempt, which Butker nailed.
See you next TNF for Jacksonville at New Orleans!
CC gets you ready for Broncos-Chiefs on TNF
On paper, this is not only a mismatch, it’s one of the more lopsided games of the 2023 season. That being said, there’s a reason why we play the games, and well, weirder things have happened.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Chiefs
Chiefs
TE Travis Kelce (Ankle), QUESTIONABLE
Kelce was able to return to Sunday’s victory over the Vikings after suffering a low ankle sprain and even scored a touchdown, but it’s a short recovery time for the All-Pro tight end, and he was limited in both of his practices this week. If Kelce can’t go, Noah Gray is likely to get the start and has shown he’s capable of providing fantasy relevance, but there’s obviously a big difference in talent between Gray and Kelce.
Broncos
TE Greg Dulcich (Hamstring): QUESTIONABLE
Dulcich was a full participant in his last practice, and the Broncos designated him for return from injured reserve Tuesday. That doesn’t necessarily mean he'll be active, however, as Denver has a 21-day period to decide. If Dulcich does come off IR, he should see a decent amount of snaps and targets in a game where Denver is likely going to have to throw the football. A lot.
The biggest injury news for Denver is a non-designation, however. Javonte Williams appears to be a full-go after missing Sunday’s loss to the Jets with a quadriceps injury. The 23-year-old tailback has played 40-45 percent of the snaps when active, so while he can’t be considered the bell cow, he should see plenty of touches against a Kansas City rushing defense that ranks 23rd in yards-per-attempt (4.3).
Even if Kelce can’t play and the rest of the KC receiving group isn't exactly drawing the envy of the league, it’s hard to picture Mahomes not having a big game against the Denver defense. Even while ranking just eighth in opponent pass attempts, the Broncos currently rank 29th in yards allowed and dead last in preventing passing touchdowns and net yards per attempt. Simply put, the best quarterback in the sport is going to face arguably the worst passing defense in the sport. Gulp.
While Mahomes is the obvious choice for a big night, Wilson has a good chance to put up some numbers as well, especially with the veteran signal-caller likely needing to chuck the ball to keep up with the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs have allowed 5.2 yards per attempt (5th in the NFL), but they’ve already “allowed” 185 passing attempts and 1,021 yards as teams have given up on the run early. Wilson is not the same player he was a few years ago in Seattle, but he should be able to put up decent stats --albeit in a likely loss.
The return of Williams puts a damper on his situation, but McLaughlin is an intriguing play after impressing over the last two weeks. The rookie running back has turned 16 carries over the last two games into 140 yards and caught a touchdown pass in each of the last two contests. A large bulk of the yardage for McLaughlin has come on long runs more than churning them out but that big-play ability does make him worth a shot in DFS formats, as does his involvement in the passing game.
Marvin Mims Jr., WR, DEN: $4,600
Mims disappointed in the loss to the Jets with just one reception for four yards, and he’s clearly behind Sutton and Jeudy in the pecking order while competing for targets from the Denver tailbacks and tight ends. Mims still leads the Broncos in receiving yardage with 246 through five games, and he’s one of the few big-play threats on the roster. Mims isn’t likely to see more than a spoonful of targets, but he only needs to turn one of them into a big play to have a successful day. I’d be willing to bet on it.
Samaje Perine, RB, DEN: $5,000
Perine ranks third on the Broncos in targets behind Sutton and Jeudy and hauled in four passes for 73 yards against the Jets. The veteran running back may not receive many carries with McLaughlin breaking out and the return of Williams, but there’s no doubt Perine will see a role in the passing game. It’s very likely the Chiefs offense and weak Broncos defense will make this a game where Denver has to throw quite often. It shouldn’t shock if he puts up similar -- if not better -- numbers to the ones he put up against New York.
Justyn Ross, WR, KC: $600
Calling this a shot in the dark is the understatement of understatements. Ross has just three catches on the season, but two of those came against Minnesota on Sunday, and he was targeted four times despite playing just six offensive snaps. The (extremely) low price would allow fantasy players to target the overwhelming majority of big names, and if this game gets out of hand, it’s not hard to imagine that Ross will see more playing time in the second half than he typically does; similar to what took place in the rout of the Bears in Week 3. Again, it’s risky, but if you’re running low on funds for your lineup, why not?
A glass-half-full person would note that the Broncos could very easily be 3-2 with two one-score losses and a late defensive touchdown by the Jets that prevented a third. A glass-half-empty person would note that Denver has played one of the weaker schedules in the league, should have lost the only game they won if not for some silly mistakes by the Bears, and gave up a 70-burger to the Dolphins in the one game against a true contender in 2023. Someone who just sees a glass with some water in it will say that the Chiefs are good and the Broncos aren’t.
Chiefs 34, Broncos 23
Cody ranks the tight ends for Week 6
Travis Kelce was on his way to returning to Travis Kelce ways, before a low ankle sprain slowed him up for half a quarter. Kelce still finished with 11 targets and as the TE3 on the week. This is just another reminder of the volatility of the TE position in Fantasy Football, and if your league mate is getting nervous and upset with Kelce's lack of “BIG GAMES”, you should be the first guy in line to make the move for Kelce.
After an impressive multi-touchdown game, rookie Sam LaPorta jumped Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson and Travis Kelce as the TE1 on the season. Keep firing him up, even when the matchups get tough.
Keep a keen eye on and be careful starting Tyler Higbee, Dalton Kincaid, David Njoku and Dalton Schultz. Instead, trust Noah Fant, who is cheap and attainable everywhere.
Finally, we're going back to the well with Andrew Ogletree, who saw another snap share spike in Week 5 from 44% to 61%, surpassing Kylen Granson, who dropped from 55% to 39%.
Cody re-ranks the wide receivers for Week 6
We were high on Adam Thielen again in Week 5, but even we weren’t high enough. Thielen finished as the WR4 during a week of MEGA games from Ja’Marr Chase, DJ Moore and Tyreek Hill.
My favorite game in Week 6, is the Vikings and Bears. DJ Moore has a chance to triple down on top-5 finishes against the Vikings, while being the only wide receiver with a reception on the Bears. Justin Jefferson was placed on IR this week with a hamstring injury, opening the door for rookie Jordan Addison to officially break out. Addison has scored a touchdown in three games and finished with 50-plus yards in four of five games. Addison will step into Jefferson’s role and finish as a top-16 play with upside to have a mega breakout.
Sleepers
Jonathan Mingo finished as WR36 in Week 5, despite Terrace Marshall reeling in 10 targets the previous week with Mingo out of action with a concussion. At 41 is Zay Jones, who returned in Week 5 and finished as WR28. He hadn't played since Week 1, where he finished as WR18. Jones is a strong flex option on a weekly basis.
Deep and asleep is Jaxon Smith-Njigba -- an ugly one, but we saw JSN finish with six targets twice in four games before the bye week.
Year after year, opportunity is had for offenses to build through bye weeks with rookie wide receivers, and this year is no different.
Cody ranks the running backs for Week 6
After a slow start to the season, the Raiders have turned up the volume on XM-Josh Jacobs. His efficiency in the run game has stabilized, the rust has been shaken off, he scored in back-to-back games and has earned 21 targets over the last three weeks. Look for Jacobs to again be a top-5 option in Week 6 against the injured and miserable Patriots.
After a massive win in England for the Jaguars, Travis Etienne is on a tear to continue building his case to be the “next best” all-purpose back in the NFL. He has four receptions in three of five games in 2023, a number he never hit in 2022.
The sleeper play of the week belongs to the Chargers' Joshua Kelley at RB43. I don’t love that ranking, but this is one I can see myself adjusting over the next 72 hours. Austin Ekeler is back in Week 6 and fixated at the top of the sheet at RB5, however the last time these two played together was Week 1, when Kelley finished as RB12 and Ekeler RB1.
Kelley has been dropped in a ton of fantasy leagues, but as a strong No. 2 in this offense, Kelley holds standalone value, with Ekeler in the lineup.
Cody ranks the quarterbacks for Week 6
The Vikings and Chiefs did not disappoint in Week 5, finishing with a 47-point total and 88 pass attempts. Patrick Mahomes and Kirk Cousins finished as top-12 quarterbacks. However, the top game duo was Bears vs Commanders. Justin Fields finished as QB1, while Sam Howell threw for 388 yards in garbage time, finishing as QB5.
In Week 6, Fields -- a back-to-back top-3 finisher -- hosts Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, with the total at 44.5 in the Windy City. On Monday, we may just get a “Monday Knighting” from the Chargers and Cowboys game, with both teams looking for big bounce backs. The Cowboys were crushed by the 49ers in Week 5 and the Chargers had a bye.
The biggest differentiator this week is the consensus trust in the New Orleans Saints' defense to put up a repeat performance against C.J. Stroud and the Texans. In Week 5, the Saints blanked the Patriots and Mac Jones, while Stroud and the Texans fell in a heartbreaker to the Falcons. I am riding the pine with Stroud this week as QB10 in a bounce-back spot at home. The consensus is QB16.
Steezy A. opens up his Bargain Bin for Week 6
It’s Week 6 already? They weren’t lying when they said ‘time flies when you’re having fun’ were they?
Anyway, I appreciate everyone who's been along for the ‘Bargain Bin’ journey with me thus far, I truly take pleasure in writing this column weekly.
Get those seat belts buckled in and continue to join the ride! Looking to set the ULTIMATE bargain-based lineup in DFS? Like I said last week, (I think I’ll start saying this regularly, but we’ll see) never fear, Steezy A. Smith is here (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel).
Game: Seahawks at Bengals, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
If it isn’t ‘Mr. I Ain’t Write Back himself’! First and foremost, happy belated 33rd birthday to Geno Smith! Perhaps a statistical masterpiece will suffice as a late birthday gift to himself?
Jokes aside, and weather permitting, Seattle’s showdown with the Cincinnati Bengals is a very intriguing matchup that should feature plenty of fireworks. I’m surprised the over/under for total points is only set at 45.5!
If you watch/listen to our ‘Fantasy Fire and Ice’ shows (if you don’t already, you really should), I always talk about following the highest scoring games and inserting those players into my fantasy lineups. Seattle and Cincinnati is one of those games.
Seemingly healthy after sustaining a knee injury in Week 4 against the New York Giants, Smith and the rest of the Seahawks have had plenty of time to rest up and recover after having a bye in Week 5. The rest of the team around Geno is starting to get healthy as well, and there’s a chance LT Charles Cross (toe) will be active.
Geno, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett vs Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins? Get your popcorn ready folks! This is the rightful ‘Sunday Night Football’ matchup. No one, including Giants fans, wants to see them get whooped on national TV again.
Game: Giants at Bills, 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday
On the heels of an abysmal Week 5 performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, Cook is primed for a major bounceback.
Here’s a rule of thumb from here on until they start to show more competency: anytime there’s a player going up against the Giants, you start them. Simple as that. Not only is the Giants defense allowing the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, but they’re also dead last in the NFL in point differential - a hideous -9.
As for the Bills? They’re second in the NFL, with a point differential of 79. Talk about being on opposite ends of the spectrum. Favored to win by two TDs, game flow/script will also favor Cook and the Bills.
With an over/under total set at 52.5 rushing yards, smash the over on that and fire up as many Cook shares as you can in fantasy!
Game: Vikings at Bears, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
In the wake of Justin Jefferson’s hamstring injury that landed him on injured reserve – meaning he’s out four games at least ¬-- this might be the cheapest you can get Osborn. Get him now while you still can.
Having played 80 percent or more of Minnesota’s offensive snaps in every game this season, Osborn will now be the WR2, behind TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison. In an offense as pass heavy as the Vikings, that’s a cheap flex play every time.
Without Jefferson, the Vikings aren’t the same team and might have more games in which they find themselves trailing. A case in point was Week 5 against the Chiefs, where Osborn finished with five receptions for 49 yards on 9 targets.
To top it off, the Bears allow the 13th most fantasy points to opposing WRs and have been on a hot streak themselves, so I expect plenty of points scored on both sides.
Game: Ravens at Titans, 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday
Having yet to eclipse 80 yards receiving or score his first TD, what better place to do both of those things than in another country?
Flowers and the Baltimore Ravens will be taking on the Tennessee Titans in London to kick off the Sunday slate, and while the Tennessee front seven is a force to be reckoned with, the secondary has been vulnerable and prone to big plays from opposing pass catchers.
Looking to atone for last week’s drop-fest (Flowers wasn’t the only one), Flowers is due for his biggest game yet against a team allowing the 8th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
One more nugget: Flowers has an ownership percentage of 29.2%, which at the time of this writing, is the third-highest ownership percentage among all wide receivers in Week 6. It seems others are starting to catch on, so don’t be the one that misses the bus!
Game: Commanders at Falcons, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Sitting at TE11 in standard PPR scoring leagues, Thomas’ price tag seems in line with other TEs, but this week he’s an absolute bargain given the opponent. Atlanta’s cornerbacks can match up against Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson, but the Falcons have allowed the second-most fantasy points to TEs.
Fresh off his best performance of the season to date (11 targets, 9 receptions, 77 receiving yards and a TD), the arrow is pointing up for Thomas.
Game: Broncos at Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday
Sitting at WR50 on the season (in standard PPR scoring formats), Rice’s WR52 cost sounds about right at first glance. However, the Broncos rank 17th (NFL Fantasy) in most points allowed to opposing wide receivers. I’d also be remiss not to mention the presence of one of the very best cornerbacks in the NFL in Pat Surtain, as well as perpetually underrated safety Justin Simmons.
However, as -11-point favorites at home on a short week against a struggling Broncos team that could be looking to tear everything down if the losses keep mounting, the time might be ripe for the Chiefs to have a vintage offensive explosion (they’ve only scored more than 30 once this season).
Having received five or more targets in four of five games, Rice has a consistent role in the Chiefs’ passing attack and will only continue to emerge up the pecking order in his rookie season.
If ‘TNF’ ends up being a blowout, I expect Rice to put up his highest snap share of the season, which also hopefully coincides with his best fantasy performance.
Fantasy Football Experts Stu (Montone) Durst, and Terrell Furman review all the NFL Week 8 games, give you all the Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 9 and recap the Monday Night Football Game between the Raiders and the Lions. Check the Fantasy Fire and Ice Podcast daily for injury updates, breaking NFL news, and player profiles.
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