Check out the best picks against the odds in Week 6
For the second straight week, we had a 3-0 sweep in this weekly ‘Vegas Lines’ article. I feel like the Las Vegas Aces vs the Dallas Wings. The ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ has moved to 5-0 ATS this season as the New Orleans Saints and the Pittsburgh Steelers both got outright wins. And the “Petty Bowl” was everything as advertised as the New York Jets and Denver Broncos went over the total.
In Week 6, here are the lines I am looking into:
Some did not believe it when they saw me take the Seattle Seahawks at +5.5 after the Detroit Lions upset the Kansas City Chiefs. Others did not believe it when they saw me take the Washington Commanders at +9 vs the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles. All I have to say now is, “Do you believe now?!” (Deion Sanders’ voice).
The Commanders are back as a ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ after losing 40-20 to the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football as six-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons battled back for their second straight comeback win at home vs the Houston Texans.
Desmond Ridder threw for 300 passing yards for the first time in his career as he moved to 5-0 at home. As a matter a fact, Ridder has not lost a home game since high school. But all good things must end.
Eric Bienemy left the Chiefs after last season because wanted to step out of Andy Reid’s shadow as an offensive coordinator and play-caller. And thus far with Washington it has been up and down. Thursday night was the third time the Commanders failed to score over 20 points after topping 30 in two of the three previous games.
Washington head coach Ron Rivera has been very good as an underdog as we noted for the Eagles game. He is 16-9 ATS (64%) as an underdog of less than three points. He is also 34-25-1 ATS (57.6%) as a road underdog.
This should be a nice bounce-back spot for Sam Howell, who has not had back-to-back games with an interception. Look for Washington get their offense going against a pesky Falcons defense.
You’ve got to love matchups between head coach and former assistant. Bill Belichick vs Josh McDaniels has the making of a ‘Petty Bowl II’. The Raiders will be coming off a short week after a Monday home win against the Green Bay Packers. The Patriots are back as part of another ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ after they got decimated by the New Orleans Saints at home (we had the Saints last week if you missed it).
There is not much to like about the Patriots in this matchup. Mac Jones looks horrible. The defense lost two of their best stars in Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez. The fans are calling for BOTH of Bill Belichick’s jobs.
Luckily, the Patriots face a Raiders defense that is giving up a lot of big plays in the passing game. The Raiders have given up a 40-yard completion in four straight games, which should benefit Jones. The run game should also benefit Jones as the Raiders are giving up the ninth-most rushing yards to running backs.
The Raiders’ offense has still yet to score over 18 points in a game. I expect the Patriots to do enough to get the win.
Here is where we check in with our local meteorologist. We are expecting bad weather, with the current forecast calling for 50-degree weather with rain and close to 20 mph winds.
If anyone remembers the 49ers-Bears in Week 1 last season, you can see why this total is interesting. Windy game unders are a typically good betting trend regardless of what team is playing. Now, imagine having two of the best defenses in the NFL squaring off.
Browns DC Jim Schwartz says he likes his defensive backs against anybody. He calls a lot of man coverage and trusts them to hold their own while creating havoc around the line of scrimmage.
In a game where both teams are going to try to keep the ball on the ground, I expect to see him dial up a defensive front that can give even the great Christian McCaffrey some problems.
On the other side, the Browns really will miss Nick Chubb. The 49ers’ front seven is the best in the league and will make it tough for Cleveland RBs Jerome Ford or Pierre Strong. Drives will stall on both sides, making this an ugly game.
We have already lost a couple of points on the total in this one but I really do not foresee either team doing enough to make it close to the over.
Brilliant waiver wire options for your fantasy teams
It’s that point in the season where 0-5 or 1-4 teams need to change their strategy. If that’s you, this week’s waiver wire is especially important. You can’t afford another loss so the usual waiver wire math goes out the window. You have to buy wins sometimes.
I’m not talking about bribing your teammates with cash to trade you CMC. Or wiring money to Sleeper or ESPN or Yahoo to change the L to a W. I’m talking about overspending on players to secure them on your team. I’m talking about adding players for a single week because of a killer matchup. I’m talking about paying up for the RB who will only be the starter for one game.
Wins are everything in fantasy football (besides the friends we made along the way) and if you’re still searching for your first, it’s time to adjust your strategy. Be aggressive on the wire and look at your season in one-week windows.
K.J. Osborn, Vikings, (17% Rostered)
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson will be placed on IR and will miss at least four weeks. With Jefferson going down in the fourth quarter, we saw both rookie wide receivers Jordan Addison and Osborn step up, receiving nine targets apiece.
While the output may have been underwhelming from Osborn in Week 5, the volume he saw from QB Kirk Cousins is promising. With Jefferson sidelined, Osborn should continue to see higher volume. Think of him as a WR3 until Jefferson returns.
Josh Reynolds, Lions, (52% Rostered)
While inconsistent, Reynolds is a vital piece of the passing game. In Week 5 against Carolina, he led Detroit in receiving yards and hauled in a TD in the absence of Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Reynolds is a legitimate start option each week if St. Brown continues to miss time. With St. Brown back, Reynolds becomes less reliable but can still be started as a WR4 with serious upside.
Curtis Samuel, Commanders, (28% Rostered)
If WR12 and WR14 in back-to-back weeks sounds pretty good, great news! Samuel just accomplished that and is most likely sitting on your waiver wire just waiting to be picked up.
With an uptick in usage as the season progresses and growing rapport with quarterback Sam Howell, Samuel should be rostered in all leagues and can be started as a WR3/4 through the next few weeks as Washington has a friendly schedule.
Each year we see rookie wide receivers start slowly and then have huge second halves of the season. We’re approaching the halfway point of the fantasy year, so it’s time to start adding some of these high-upside rookies to your bench. These are guys like Christian Watson in 2022, Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2021 and A.J. Brown in 2019.
The guys below could have a second half breakout and could be vital pieces to a championship roster. Put them on your bench and see if these rookies earn an increased role over the next couple of weeks.
Roschon Johnson, Bears, (52% Rostered)
After a big Week 1, Johnson has been disappointing for anyone looking to start him in fantasy, but the rookie could get a big workload with Khalil Herbert out multiple weeks.
Johnson does need to clear concussion protocol before Sunday, but barring any unexpected setbacks he should suit up. The Bears just added Darrynton Evans on top of D’Onta Foreman and an injured Travis Homer, but Johnson seems to have earned the No. 2 role after Herbert.
Johnson will have first crack at being lead back in an offense coming off two good weeks. Starting RBs are hard to find on the waiver wire but you’ve got one for at least a couple of weeks here.
Emari Demercado, Cardinals (2% Rostered)
With James Conner suffering a knee injury, undrafted free agent rookie Demercado led the backfield Sunday to decent success. He had been seeing more involvement in recent weeks and Sunday had 45 yards on 10 carries and a touchdown.
Conner likely will be miss some time, according to coach Jonathan Gannon. Thus, Demercado can be started against the Rams even with the Cardinals adding Tony Jones Jr.. If Conner somehow does play, Demercado is relegated to a backup RB on your bench.
Tyjae Spears, Titans (36% Rostered)
You should have done it last week. And honestly you should have done it the week before that. When a team with Derrick Henry is giving significant snaps and touches to a running back not named Derrick Henry, you pay attention.
Spears scored his first touchdown of his rookie campaign Sunday and looked good doing it. While his seven carries and five targets isn’t anything to write home about, it shows how Tennessee values Spears and their commitment to getting him involved.
Look for Spears’ touches to continue to rise as the season goes on. If Henry were to miss anytime, Spears appears to be one of the best backups in the league for fantasy.
Dalton Schultz, Texans (45% Rostered)
Sometimes all you need from a tight end is a touchdown and you’re happy. Schultz has given that to you two weeks in a row, including 10 targets for seven receptions and 65 yards in Week 5.
Texans QB C.J. Stroud has been electric, supporting an entire cast of fantasy-relevant options. While Schultz is late to the party compared to Tank Dell and Nico Collins, Stroud may continue to lean on his TE and go back to him in the end zone.
Consistency might continue to be an issue with the Houston receiving options, but you can do much worse at a position where all you need is 10 points to be a top 12 option most weeks.
Logan Thomas, Commanders (20% Rostered)
Outside of the brief stint in the concussion protocol following Week 2, Logan Thomas has been a relatively consistent option. Thomas has finished top 12 n three of four games and in Week 5 had 11 targets in a game where Howell had to throw the ball 51 times.
While the passing volume cannot be expected to be that high week in and week out, Thomas has established himself as a reliable option for Howell. Thomas is the perfect matchup play at TE with the upside of turning in a top 5 week.
Sam Howell, Commanders (55% Rostered)
Coming off a 388-yard passing performance, Howell will be a hot commodity on the waiver wire entering bye weeks. With Atlanta, the Giants, and Philadelphia in the coming three weeks, you should be able to continue riding with Howell.
We’ve seen the downside of Howell -- four interceptions, no touchdowns, and less than 200 passing yards against the Bills in Week 3. But we’ve also seen the Commanders let him air it out -- 51 attempts in their Week 5 loss to the Bears.
With the receiving trio of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel (not to mention Logan Thomas), Howell has the weapons to continue this success and will likely find himself in more negative game scripts like the ones the Commanders faced Sunday.
Matthew Stafford, Rams (55% Rostered)
Turns out Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua can be good at the same time. That’s great news for Stafford now that his No. 1 WR is back. And great news for fantasy managers looking for a QB on the waiver wire.
Stafford has yet to have that huge week, but this is a team that wants to throw the ball. The Rams have the second-most pass attempts in the league, behind only the Minnesota Vikings. With Kupp back and good matchups against the Cardinals and Steelers in the next two weeks, Stafford should be rostered in most leagues and can be trusted as a starter.
'HIlow' helps you harness the power of our game-changing tool
An optimizer is a powerful tool for DFS, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. But we must first learn how to wield an optimizer to realize its true power.
That’s what we are trying to do in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Contrarian Edge Optimizer use at Fantasy Sports Logic for every Monday Night Football game this season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the newest and most dynamic optimizer in the industry.
Running the Contrarian Edge Optimizer without altering anything is always a good idea to see where the varying projections systems are leading rosters for the Packers-Raiders game on Monday night. Almost unanimously, you’ll see a high emphasis on the primary Raiders pieces (Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and Jimmy Garoppolo), followed by Packers Jordan Love and Christian Watson. That gives us a solid starting point to guide our discussion. Austin Hooper is also projecting well as the player with the lowest price who also carries a numerical projection on the slate.
The game between the Raiders and Packers pits one extremely concentrated offense with a middling defense (Las Vegas) against a relatively concentrated offense with a middling defense (Green Bay). As such, expect the kickers and defenses to go relatively under-owned with a high emphasis on the offensive pieces of each offense. And while that is the likeliest scenario in a spot like this, rosters that include either defense and/or one, or both, kickers are going to be solid leverage opportunities. In other words, the ownership on those pieces is likely going to be lower than the chances of them contributing to the optimal roster.
There are also numerous spots where ownership might come in lower than it otherwise would considering injury uncertainty, with Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, and Christian Watson either coming in questionable (Adams and Jones) or bringing uncertainty surrounding their expected snap rates as they work their way back from extended absences (Jones and Watson). Watson’s snap rate is likely to directly influence his projection and the projection of Romeo Doubs, and an “either or” stance is likely a good idea in this spot.
With so much uncertainty heading into the slate, it’s best to sort out your intended captains and run the optimizer with certain hard guidelines in place. For example, some of the rules that will guide those runs on this slate are:
One of the aspects of the optimizer that we haven’t discussed is the ability to edit the blend of the seven projections machines that are utilized by the Contrarian Edge Optimizer away from an even 14 percent split. On the top header, select “Edit Blend” and input the desired emphasis. While I don’t recommend altering these values on main slates, it can be invaluable for smaller slates and showdowns to leverage the varying projection systems from around the industry.
Feeling higher or lower on a specific player than the projections? Simply alter the max or min exposure thresholds for the optimizer, which will force varying builds away from the chalk. We can be as restricting as we want in this process, with the ability to restrict the optimizer down to a narrow band within two to three percent.
Check out the studs and duds from Week 5
My brother turned 40 this weekend, and I’m not too far off myself. Young people, take a moment. 40 is a big number. It was when my brother and I were kids. It is now. Every time I hear an announcer talk about how old a player is when they might have just turned 30, I cringe a little bit.
But I’ve been thinking about the good times that have filled those years. My brother and I weren’t the best of friends when we were little kids. We grew extremely close when I got to college, however, and our bond has only gotten stronger since.
One of the main reasons is fantasy football. We joined our first league together after I graduated, and we share four different ones now. I root for him, I try to beat him, and I even sometimes give him some waiver advice.
It sounds silly, but this is a silly game we play, and I love every second of it. I love that I’m able to text him at any time about a player going off for three touchdowns or putting up a goose egg. I can always count on him to shoot back with a meme telling me I’m an idiot.
He beat me in a league championship last year and even our parents were super invested in the outcome. It’s the little things that make this game so great. It’s brought so many people together and hopefully you have a similar experience of joy and togetherness.
But sorry for the sappy intro, ya jabronis, on to the week 5 recap!
*Honorable Mention* Sam LaPorta, Lions TE – 3 rec. 47 yds. 2 TDs
We don’t usually do the Thursday guys because some time has passed, but DJ Moore’s day was too good to ignore -- 230 yards and three touchdowns, and it probably should have haven four. Where did he step out of bounds? He paced the league through Sunday. He’s gone over 100 yards three out of five weeks and he’ll have plenty more opportunities to keep that going with a Bears defense that has given up the most passing yards through five weeks.
Is Ja’Marr Chase always freaking open? He sure seemed like it Sunday, with 192 yards and three touchdowns. This was either a “launchpad game” for the Cincinnati Bengals OR they lit up an Arizona Cardinals team that also got lit up by the lousy New York Giants. Cincy will get Seattle before a bye and might really be able to get the offense turned around. Stay tuned!
Three catches. Three scores. That’s how George Kittle’s night went. The connection he had with Brock Purdy at the end of last season made him a top-five tight end. It hasn’t been the norm this season, but it’s clear the chemistry is still very much there. Kittle’s first career three-touchdown game put him right back near the top of fantasy tight end point scorers.
Travis Etienne, Jr. tweeted that he played himself in fantasy this week. I’m glad he didn’t go easy. His first game going over 100 yards on the ground carried the Jaguars to a win. His 35-yard touchdown at the end of the game sealed the deal. He’s a top-five runner and the Jags would be smart to keep that train rolling.
What more can we say about De’Von Achane? He’s leading the NFL in rushing in basically three games on about half as many attempts as the guys behind him. To say he makes the most of his touches is an understatement. And even when the game might be in hand, the Dolphins are more than happy to keep running their offense.
Zack Moss doesn’t care that you have Jonathan Taylor on your fantasy team. He was the feature back in the Colts’ offense as they work Taylor back in. Listen, Taylor got paid and we know what he’s capable of. But if you believe in preseason games being needed to get up to game speed, then Taylor will need about a month to figure it out. Moss will continue to have value and at worst will be the best handcuff in fantasy leagues if Taylor goes down.
They said, there are no limitations on Breece Hall. Yes, the Broncos’ run defense is basically Swiss cheese, but that doesn’t matter. Hall will likely be the focal point of the Jets’ offense going forward because of Zach Wilson’s limitations at quarterback.
Dallas Goedert put his slow start all the way behind him against the Rams. He powered the Eagles’ offense on the first drive and didn’t look back. He runs routes on 80 percent of Eagles pass plays and hopefully Sunday was a sign that Jalen Hurts is noticing.
The kids say it’s cuffing season. I say it’s Kupping season. I’m so hip. Welcome back to the man, the myth, the weapon Cooper Kupp after a stint on the IR. He didn’t miss a beat while leading the Rams in targets, catches and yards. The big question: can the Rams support both Kupp and Puka Nacua? Puka had 71 yards and a touchdown, a BIG BOY touchdown at that, so I think Los Angeles (and fantasy owners) are happy to have them both running routes.
Raise your hand if you benched George Pickens this week. My hand is up, I hate that it’s up, and I wish I could put it down. The Ravens hadn’t allowed a 100-yard receiver all season. I was playing the odds, but it will be the last time I bench Pickens, who is clearly in synch with Kenny Pickett.
Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, our Honorable Mention, has three touchdowns this season. The Lions offense is a monster and I want every part of it. I’ll be bold: LaPorta will finish as a top-3 player at the position this season. Trade for him if you can!
Texans WR Nico Collins continued his good game-bad game trend for the Texans by posting only 38 yards. Rams RB Kyren Williams barely did anything against a tough Philly front. Basically every Giants player continued to play like they were on the Giants. And Derrick Henry looked like anything but a King against Indy.
But even though this is a duds section, I do want to talk injuries. Anthony Richardson plays in a way that is seemingly conducive to injuries. His throwing shoulder injury forced him out of the game and could force him to miss time. Cardinals RB James Conner looked good before going down with a knee injury. And the first overall pick in many a fantasy draft, WR Justin Jefferson, couldn’t finish the Vikings game because of a hammy issue. See if Jordan Addison is still somehow on your waiver wire or even consider K.J. Osborn if you’re in a bind.
A brutal day for some stars, yeesh.
Captain, contrarian, flex options for the big game
In perhaps the best matchup thus far this season, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys take on Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara for Sunday Night Football. Let’s look at the game:
49ers
Cowboys
49ers
RB Elijah Mitchell (Knee) – Out
Cowboys
TE Peyton Hendershot (Ankle) – Out
These injuries aren't game altering. Deebo Samuel has been nursing knee and rib injuries for a couple of weeks now, and it's being reported he won't be 100 percent. He played 87 percent of the snaps last week but failed to receive a single target. He’s not listed on the injury report. Mitchell will miss his second consecutive game which led to a few extra snaps for Jordan Mason.
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, McCaffrey is projected to be the most-owned Captain (43%) on the slate at DraftKings. The next closest projected in ownership is Brock Purdy at 9.5%. Regarding flex positions, it's projected to be much more balanced. In Showdown, 9 players are projected to be owned in over 30% of lineups. This includes both team defenses.
McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 13 straight games as a 49er, surpassing the legendary Jerry Rice. CMC found paydirt a career-high four times in San Francisco's 35-16 win over the Arizona Cardinals last week.
Entering Week 5, McCaffrey is the highest non-QB in NFL MVP future odds at +1800. Before Week 4, he was +4800 to win MVP. He is the No. 1 scoring running back in fantasy this season, and the Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most explosive runs this season.
The current Vegas total is 45 points, which might be tough to reach as the Cowboys are the fourth slowest, and the 49ers are the slowest in neutral pace. This will be a physical game from start to finish. Last season, the 49ers defeated the Cowboys 19-12 in the divisional round of the playoffs. Both teams have top-five offenses and defenses so far in 2023.
George Kittle, $9,600
The 49ers tight end projected ownership in the captain slot is just 0.6%! He would be a solid contrarian play on Sunday night and a less expensive option you can deploy. On paper, the matchup with the Cowboys offense doesn't look great, but Kittle is set up to produce on primetime after a deeper dive.
The Cowboys play man-to-man most of any NFL team. Brandon Aiyuk leads the 49ers in target share when facing man at 28.6%, and Kittle is second on the team at 20.5%. Aiyuk will have tough matchups against Daron Bland and Stephon Gilmore on the outside.
The Cowboys’ linebackers are aware of McCaffrey and the SF run game. They will likely stack the box to try to slow down CMC, which will let Kittle get open over the middle on play action, leading to big chunk plays and possibly a touchdown.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
The Cowboys QB has been a glorified game manager through the first four weeks. His average depth of target is the second lowest of any quarterback so far this season at 5.9 yards, and the 49ers’ defense has held opposing quarterbacks to the second-lowest yards per attempt. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging a measly 12.8 fantasy points per game against the Niners’ defense.
49ers Defense/Special Teams $4,000
San Francisco's defense has dominated this season. They have more interceptions than touchdown passes thrown against them through the season's first month. Their run defense should slow down Tony Pollard and the Dallas running game. They have allowed the second-least explosive runs so far.
Prescott threw for just 206 yards and had 2 interceptions in the playoff loss last year in Santa Clara. Most importantly, for the 49ers defense to pay off, they need to get out to an early lead. Prescott has the best quarterback rating playing with a lead, but he drops to 26th when he's playing from behind.
There's no doubt this is the most intriguing matchup so far in 2023. Both sides have Super Bowl aspirations and belong in the conversation. Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense is healthy, so I expect them to perform much better in this game than in the playoff loss last year.
The Cowboys lead the NFL in pressure rate, but Purdy has yet to fold when he's under pressure in the pocket. Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan know each other's tendencies well. I expect the 49ers to win, but the Cowboys will keep it close and gain plenty of respect around the NFL.
Final Score: 49ers 23, Cowboys 20
Terrell gives you his top values for Week 5
We have been very successful with our ‘Value Finder’ series this season. The Fantasy Sports Optimizer has helped me compile a list of players that should exceed expectations at cost. Here are my top values in Week 5:
The way to win a DFS contest is to be contrarian. The Philadelphia Eagles’ defense is one of the top units in the NFL, but Fantasy Sports Contrarian Optimizer and I believe they have an area that can be exploited — the secondary.
Through four weeks, the Eagles’ secondary has given up the seventh-most passing yards in the league. They have also given out two separate QB2 finishes for the week (Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins) and a QB12 to Sam Howell last week.
Stafford has had a rough start to the season and has not topped QB15 yet. But he’s a gunslinger and gets his top weapon back in wide receiver Cooper Kupp. That will open things up for Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell. This is a great week to get a contrarian, value option at quarterback.
I love a great narrative story that is supported by facts. It feels like telling the future. Here is the narrative here:
Almost a year ago to the day, Hall tore his ACL in the first half of their game at Denver. He was potentially on his way to an Offensive Rookie of the Year award, and it was all over just like that. Now, here we are back at Denver, and the Broncos have given up the most rushing yards to running backs so far this season.
To top it off, the Broncos head coach last season was Nathaniel Hackett, who is now the offensive coordinator for the New York Jets. And did you catch what Sean Payton said about Hackett in the off-season?
This is a great matchup for Hall in a game that will have a roller coaster of emotions. The Jets have come out and said Hall is no longer being managed and will receive a full workload. The Fantasy Sports Contrarian Optimizer and I have Breece Hall as a great, sneaky play this week that could find himself as one of the top RBs of the week.
I know. I know. I know. DeAndre Hopkins has not looked as advertised for this offense. It’s been very tough sledding for the former All-Pro wideout. His best weekly finish this season is WR36. But this matchup versus the Indianapolis Colts is interesting.
The Colts are giving up the eighth most fantasy points to wide receivers. This is a game that is going to start in the trenches with Derrick Henry and he is going to take the pressure off Hopkins. If there is ever a boom week for Hopkins, it’s this one. He’s scored in five straight games versus the Colts.
We have repeat customer to the article! We hit big with Hurst in Week 1 and I love him again in this spot. This Detroit Lions defense’ has been really solid in defending wide receivers while giving up the most receiving yards to tight ends.
This should be a dominant game for the Lions and I’m expecting any work Bryce Young supplies to be in garbage time. This Lions defensive line should pressure Young into making quick throws and I believe Hurst can benefit. Hurst could have a nice PPR day and cap it off with a garbage time touchdown. Very cheap option with high upside for Week 5.
Cody ranks all the positions heading into Week 5
'Monotone' lays out his top TD parlays for Week 5
After a successful week of longshots, check out my favorite touchdown picks of the week!
Going with a same game parlay in the Eagles-Rams game (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday). There is already nice value here, with this being priced at +238 on DraftKings. Hurts and Kupp are their team’s best redzone weapons, and the total of this game is currently set at 50.5.
Hurts, the king of the tush push, has all the goal line carries on lockdown and should have plenty of chances with an implied team total higher than four touchdowns.
This is also a good price for Kupp in his return. When healthy, he has been a redzone demon. The Rams are expected to be trailing, and QB Matthew Stafford will throw a lot against the Eagles’ strong run defense. They are especially weak against the slot, and that’s where Kupp will do a lot of his work.
Reports out of LA are that Kupp won’t be limited. I like his chances in a high-octane game.
Rookie Achane has six touchdowns over his last two games, showing next-level efficiency. He’s also out-snapped fellow Dolphin RB Raheem Mostert in back-to-back weeks, posting a 60-percentr snap rate to Mostert’s 44 percent last week.
The Dolphins are 12-point favorites against a miserable Giants defense, and we’ve really seen Achane blossom in the redzone. Miami had plenty of creative uses for him, and we’ve seen this Dolphins offense run up the score before (ask the Broncos about that).
Additionally, DraftKings has Achane priced much differently than the rest of the market, with his 1+ touchdown currently at +105 vs -125 to -175 everywhere else. For 2+ touchdowns, the next best price is +450, showing inherent value on these numbers.
I like targeting longshot touchdown scorers in a game where Colts QB Anthony Richardson will be tasked with beating the Titans through the air. Tennessee’s excellent rush defense will focus on limiting RB Jonathan Taylor and thereby testing Richardson’s passing.
AR-15 has been inconsistent, but he’s also made very nice downfield throws. Pierce will get an opportunity or two downfield, and I like taking that chance against a defense struggling with explosive plays.
Granson really popped last game. He led the Colts TE group in snaps and was consistently involved on third downs. Richardson likes keying in on his tight ends, and Indy will be forced into more of a pass heavy game script.
Richardson will have a boom or bust game; I want some exposure if he can take advantage of this bad pass defense.
Fantasy Football Experts Stu (Montone) Durst, and Terrell Furman review all the NFL Week 8 games, give you all the Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 9 and recap the Monday Night Football Game between the Raiders and the Lions. Check the Fantasy Fire and Ice Podcast daily for injury updates, breaking NFL news, and player profiles.
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