Week 5 RB Rankings
De'Von 'Double-Down' Achane, was out in full force during Week 4 with another dynamic performance and Top-5 fantasy finish, this time on just 11 touches. He totaled 233 yards and 4 touchdowns on 22 touches in Week 3, in what was looked at as a once in a lifetime game. He “doubled down” in Week 4 with 120 total yards and 2 touchdowns on just 11 touches.
A literal repeat performance on a per-touch basis. Going forward, it is going to be more and more difficult for Mike McDaniel and company to contain this freak of an athlete, but at just 185 pounds, they will need to utilize both Achane and Raheem Mostert to keep this efficiency flowing. Achane is a MUST-START and Top-10 option every week until further notice.
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Only one running back have finished with 19.9+ fantasy points in both Week 1, 2, 3 and 4 -- Christian McCaffrey.
Alvin Kamara returned from suspension, and made up for missed time, pulling in a whopping 13 receptions on 13 targets. That places him 9th among running backs in receptions, just 6 behind the leader, Bijan Robinson. We hammered Kamara in the rankings last week, he finished exactly where we projected -- 9th.
This week the assumed return of Jonathan Taylor is held in high regard with how impressive Zack Moss has played in 2023. However, when comparing Moss’s stats to that of Taylors first 3 games in 2022, they are eerily similar.
Taylor had 5 less carries, but 6 more yards and 2 more receptions in the same span. The difference of course is this Colts offensive line has been healthy and returned to 2021 form. Taylor is a fringe RB1 this week, coming in at RB16 if he practices on Thursday and Friday.
Cody ranks the quarterbacks for Week 5
The highest game total in Week 5 belongs to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs traveling to Minnesota to take on Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. In Week 3, we saw a high-powered AFC West team in the Chargers, go to Minnesota and take it down to the wire with a 28-24 finish. Cousins and Justin Herbert combined for 97 pass attempts.
While Patrick Mahomes has crested 40 pass attempts just once this season, Minnesota has been friendly to opposing quarterbacks, allowing 27 points per game in their three losses. Mahomes and Cousins are the only duo inside the Top 12 for Week 5, with Cousins averaging 46 pass attempts in the Vikings 3 losses.
The biggest differentiator this week is the consensus trust in Trevor Lawrence to double down and double up on a mediocre performance against Atlanta in Week 4. Consensus rankings have Lawrence has the QB10 this week, despite him finishing as QB 16,18 and 32 each of the last three weeks.
The Buffalo Bills are no easy task, despite Jacksonville having a one-week head start staying in Europe for the past two weeks. The Bills held Tua Tagovailoa to QB18 last week, and in a 37-3 dusting of Washington, they showed Sam Howell what was behind Door #2 and that was QB32 in Week 3, their second consecutive game holding a QB outside the Top 30.
Terrell picks out the top Vegas lines for Week 5
Break out your broomsticks because we had a 3-0 sweep in last week’s article moving our season record to 6-3!
The ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ moved to 3-0 ATS this season with the Washington Commanders losing to the Philadelphia Eagles in overtime 34-31 as 9-point underdogs. New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr continued to play a week after an AC joint sprain and the offense could never get going as they lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-9 — covering the under 39.5 total points. Finally, the Tennessee Titans defense dominated the Cincinnati Bengals 27-3 as +2.5 underdogs.
In Week 5, here are the lines I am looking into:
The Saints and the Patriots both met the ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ criteria -- underperforming the spread by 21 or more points in Week 4. The Saints, however, are the play here as an underdog. Everyone saw how rough the offense looked not scoring even a touchdown. But this week could be an easier matchup.
Realize this – the Patriots are really bad. They’re also significantly limited on defense with injuries to Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez — arguably their two best defenders. With another week of recovery and rehab for Carr, I expect to see this offense look a lot better in Alvin Kamara’s second game back this season.
The Steelers are back here in a familiar spot. They’ve been a ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ every other week. And once again, they are at home in a division game.
In preseason, this line was Ravens -1. After the Steelers’ lackluster start to the season the line jumped to Ravens -4. Mike Tomlin is 53-28-2 (65.4%) ATS as an underdog. He is also 16-5-3 (76.2%) ATS as a home underdog — including 2-0 ATS vs the Ravens as a home dog.
Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett suffered a bone bruise in the 30-6 loss to the Texans on Sunday, but he will practice this week and will be a game-time decision. After the start this offense has had this season, I don’t see much difference between Pickett and backup Mitchell Trubisky.
I think this will be another low scoring game in which the Steelers defense keeps them alive. The Ravens’ offense is going through a number of injuries that this defense will be able to exploit and create opportunities for the offense.
This is going to be the Petty Bowl. In late July, new Broncos head coach Sean Payton referred to predecessor Nathaniel Hackett – now the Jets’ offensive coordinator – by saying the 2022 season “might have been one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL. That’s how bad it was.”
The Jets’ coaching staff and players rallied behind Hackett in response. Thus, I think this game is going to be an offensive explosion by both sides. Why? To be PETTYYYY.
There’s also the fact the Jets are 14th in opponent points per game (21) and the Broncos are last (37.5). Zach Wilson looked a lot better on Sunday Night Football and is growing in Hackett’s offense.
On the other hand, Russell Wilson has the Broncos’ offense 10th in scoring (25 ppg) despite the 1-4 record. Their defense has not done them any favors, so I am expecting to see a bunch points in this game.
Simon says, check out these waiver wire possibilities
The purpose of the waiver wire changes this week. No longer are we just speculating for future weeks, replacing injured players in our lineup, or cutting the underperforming players from our draft. It’s Week 5, which means we’ve got four teams on bye and these waiver wire additions may be filling out your starting lineup immediately.
With the Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks on bye, fantasy managers will be left with quite a few holes in their roster for the first time this season. Let’s fill those holes together.
Michael Wilson (6% Rostered)
Since Week 2, Wilson’s usage has been on a steady rise in the Arizona offense, all culminating in his Week 4 breakout. Now seemingly ahead of Rondale Moore on the depth chart, Wilson could become a more consistent flex option.
His seven targets were by far the most he’s had, but Wilson is building rapport with quarterback Joshua Dobbs and we still don’t know when Kyler Murray will be back.
Don’t expect two touchdowns every week for Wilson but do expect a lot of pass-happy game scripts for a struggling Cardinals team.
Curtis Samuel (14% Rostered)
Despite being on the field for the majority of snaps, Week 4 was the first-time fantasy managers were happy starting Samuel. He turned his highest target total of the season (eight targets) into seven receptions for 71 yards. A PPR dream.
With a juicy matchup against Chicago, Samuel is the perfect bye week fill-in. Touchdowns haven’t gone his way yet, but Samuel is still a serviceable PPR option.
Tyler Boyd (51% Rostered)
I’m not sure there is a more quintessential bye week wide receiver than Boyd. Never one to blow the roof off but also never one to ruin your week, Boyd is the epitome of high-floor/low-upside.
The amount of time he spends on the field can hardly go up if Tee Higgins misses time, but he may see Burrow look his way more often. What’s more likely is that Ja’Marr Chase sees the benefit of Higgins' absence and Boyd continues his steady slot role.
If you’re looking for a safe (but not so exciting) flex play for bye weeks, Boyd can fill that role.
Jameson Williams (53% Rostered)
Williams’ suspension for gambling was reduced to four games, so he can return in Week 5. While it's unknown how his talent will translate to the NFL, the upside of a former first-round pick entering one of the more exciting offenses in the NFL is enough to warrant a pick-up.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is clearly the Lions' No. 1 WR, but there is room for Williams to emerge as the WR2 in this offense and a weekly fantasy starter. Pick him up before his first week back on the field, though hold off on starting him if possible.
Jaleel McLaughlin (2% Rostered)
Javonte Williams suffered a hip flexor injury and missed the second half of Sunday’s victory against the Chicago Bears. In his stead, Samaje Perine and McLaughlin split the running back duties.
Good news, bad news with this one. The good news is that Javonte Williams is not expected to miss much time. The bad news is that this means McLaughlin will likely have one week of startability and it comes against a tough Jets defense.
McLaughlin should be looked at as a bye week filler while we await the return of Williams, which should be sooner rather than later.
Ronnie Rivers (2% Rostered)
Kyren Williams has been one of the best waiver wire finds of the season, currently sitting as the No. 3 PPR RB. The Rams' rushing role has fantasy value and this week highlighted Rivers as a competent backup.
Rivers turned nine carries into 47 yards and added two receptions for 10 yards. Unlikely to be worth starting while Williams is healthy and starting, Rivers is worth adding as a backup if you have room.
Tyjae Spears (34% Rostered)
It was a disappointing week if you started Spears, but it’s disappointing every week if you have to start a clear backup running back. While hardly start-able given the Titans' preference for Derrick Henry (duh), the Titans have shown they really like the rookie and continue to get him involved.
I wouldn’t feel comfortable plugging Spears into my lineup unless it is an absolute emergency, but I would like to roster one of the league’s clearest backup running backs.
Jake Ferguson (50% Rostered)
Tight end is gross, and volume alone is enough to make a player relevant. Ferguson has emerged as a favorite safety valve for Dak Prescott, with seven targets in three games this season including Sunday’s game against the Patriots.
Ferguson led all Cowboys in targets, receptions, and yards Sunday and turned in his third consecutive top-12 TE week. Ferguson’s PPR floor appears to be relatively safe and if he finds the end zone, a top-5 weekly finish is likely.
Jonnu Smith (2% Rostered)
A tight end led the Atlanta Falcons in receiving yards this weekend in London, and it wasn't Kyle Pitts. Seeing 6 or more targets in the last 3 games makes Smith a reluctant start at the position.
Upside is limited as the offense seems limited by Desmond Ridder. But while we await the emergence of Pitts, you can get a couple bye week or injury filler starts from Smith. Expect TE2 numbers and get excited if he turns his targets into more, like he did this past weekend.
C.J. Stroud (55% Rostered)
Stroud has finished as QB13 or better each of the last three weeks, even with his pass volume dipping due to positive game scripts against the Jaguars and the Steelers. With the emergence of Nico Collins and Tank Dell as viable threats for the rookie, Stroud can be relied on as a weekly starter and should get back to chucking the ball near 50 times a game as the Texans are in more negative game scripts.
Russell Wilson (53% Rostered)
While the Broncos look lost as a team, Wilson has put together multiple good games in a row including this week’s impressive three-touchdown game against a struggling Bears’ defense.
While you wouldn't start Wilson every week in one-quarterback leagues, he has shown he can be started in positive matchups. Week 5 is rough against a strong Jets defense, but you can pick him up now and then play the matchups.
Joshua Dobbs (9% Rostered)
Now that Dobbs’ jersey is available in the Cardinals team store, start taking him seriously as a fantasy option. He' been start-able the last three weeks, including two top-8 finishes. These weren’t against nobody defenses. Dobbs got it done against the Giants, Cowboys and 49ers.
The Cards' offense continues to find a way when many counted them out to start the year. With Kyler Murray having no clear timetable for return, fantasy managers can pick up Dobbs as a serviceable QB for the foreseeable future. The Week 5 matchup against the Bengals also makes Dobbs an excellent bye week replacement QB.
Check out our weekly Monday series on the Optimizer
An optimizer is a powerful tool to harness in DFS, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. But one must first learn how to wield an optimizer before its true power can be realized. That is what we will sort through in this weekly series.
We’ll focus on Contrarian Edge Optimizer use at Fantasy Sports Logic for each Monday Night Football to explore the tool, maximize expected value through optimal utilization and provide a sneak peek into the newest and most dynamic optimizer in the industry.
We’ll start our process for Giants-Seahawks in Week 4 by running the Contrarian Edge Optimizer without manipulating any functions. The optimizer returns a showdown roster of the Giants' Daniel Jones (captain) and Wan’Dale Robinson, and the Seahawks' D.K. Metcalf, Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Then we explore underlying metrics and DFS Theory to guide the roster-building process. Seattle has historically held elevated rush rates in the green zone (within 10 yards of the end zone). Lead back Kenneth Walker now has nine such opportunities through three games, four of which he has converted to touchdowns.
Since touchdowns are extremely important to DFS output, and even more so in a Showdown format, capturing the touchdowns in a single-game format becomes increasingly important. In other words, Walker’s robust green zone role makes his chances of scoring a touchdown increasingly likely, which should boost our inputs into the algorithm.
VIDEO: Daryl Snyder and R.C. Fischer preview Seahawks-Giants. Find out which top players they are paying up for and who they're targeting as value plays. These two DFS experts will make a run at the DraftKings Millionaire Maker Tournament! (Story continues below the video)
On the other side, Seattle’s struggles in the red zone through three games should not be understated. The Seahawks are the only team in the league to allow a touchdown on every opponent red zone possession this season.
That bodes well for the touchdown expectation of a Giants team that has performed well in the red zone. Their 62.5 percent red zone TD rate ranks eighth. With Saquon Barkley listed as doubtful, the chances that those touchdowns flow through quarterback Daniel Jones are elite.
The books agree. Kenneth Walker and Daniel Jones carry the shortest odds to score a touchdown. This makes the inclusion of each player a solid starting point for the optimizer.
Touchdowns become even more important the lower we get in the salary totem pole. The optimizer loves Wan’Dale Robinson on this slate, and for good reason. He returned to the active roster in Week 3 for the first time since tearing his ACL in 2022. In that game, he played only 11 offensive snaps but saw five targets, good for a ridiculous 55.6 percent targets per route run rate.
Furthermore, his snaps came at the direct expense of Parris Campbell out of the slot. As such, any roster with Robinson should exclude Campbell in the event we see Robinson’s snap rate increase. Robinson is priced at just $3,000 and makes an interesting salary-saving option.
On the other side, Noah Fant and Will Dissly are questionable. Dissly had an improving trend throughout the week after missing Week 3 due to a shoulder injury, whereas Fant popped on the injury report for the first time Saturday, listed as a “DNP” with a knee injury.
Either way, an absence from either would correlate directly to increased snaps for Colby Parkinson, who has been the lead tight end. He holds a low 18.8 percent targets per route run rate, but he has 1.81 yards per route run (fifth), 9.7 yards per target (second), and 14.5 yards per reception (first). Any increase in snap rate will boost his projections in this spot. At only $800, he makes for an excellent salary-saving option in Showdown.
Boosting the projections of Jones, Walker, Robinson, and Parkinson returns a roster of those four plus Metcalf and Geno -- a solid roster but one that is likely to be duplicated immensely. Simple acts like substituting Tyler Lockett for Metcalf or moving either Metcalf or Lockett into the Captain spot uses less combined salary and are interesting ways to differentiate. Robinson is also priced around the kickers, which makes an easy pivot across various rosters.
Finally, Metcalf and Lockett historically struggle to provide ceiling games in unison, making a rule of “either Metcalf or Lockett” a solid bet in this spot.
It's time to elevate some players, cut bait on others
There was a time in my life as a kid when I wanted nothing to do with playing football. I didn’t want to play flag or tackle. Just didn’t want to do that. At some point I came to my senses and became obsessed, but during that time my dad had a saying: “give it two weeks.” He’d tell me to participate in football for two weeks and see if I still didn’t like it. And then when two weeks came and went and I still didn’t want to do it, my Dad would then say to me “give it another two weeks.”
That’s how you get a bratty kid to do things. In fantasy terms, we’re at the “another two weeks” point. A month into the season and it’s time to elevate the fantasy studs and maybe cut bait with (at least some) of the duds. And with that, let’s recap Week 4!
Honorable Mention -- Zach Wilson, 245 yds. 2 TDs. But this doesn’t absolve him from the careerlong streak of being mediocre.
It’s news to literally no one that CMC is a stud. Four touchdowns could have been five if Brock Purdy didn’t sneak in for one. Hand up: I was “cautious” when he got traded to the 49ers because of his injury history. Hand up: I’m dumb. He leads the league in rushing and could run away with it.
It’s good to see A.J. Brown build on the success of last week’s 131 scoreless yard performance with a monster day. The Eagles needed every bit of it in a shootout with the Commanders (good for you if you predicted that one) and it looks like any “give me the damn ball” problems there may have been in Philly have been worked out. Brown has 27 targets in the last two weeks compared to DeVonta Smith’s 14.
This was the Josh Allen you drafted. This was the guy you pictured when some league mates told you it was a reach to grab him in the 2nd round. His perfect passer rating and five touchdowns helped knock out the Dolphins. And he did it by going to his number 1 Stefon Diggs.
Stefon Diggs certainly hasn’t disappointed fantasy owners, but he hadn’t found the endzone in the previous two weeks. That changed Sunday with his three scores and the duo put to bed any doubts about Buffalo’s offense.
I think we can confidently say Kyren Williams is good. Granted, the Colts defense isn’t a brick wall, but he’s been showing versatility week after week. Against Indy it was on the ground, but he can get it done through the air, too. I’m high on Williams keeping it going with the return of Cooper Kupp on the horizon and the prospect of the offense being even better.
When in doubt, start offensive players against the Broncos. I guess that’s where we’re at now? Justin Fields’ 4-touchdown performance is either smoke and mirrors or the start of something beautiful. Cole Kmet had 2 touchdowns. The DJ Moore rollercoaster provided a thrill with 131 yards and a score. Khalil Herbert had more than 100 on the ground and a receiving touchdown.
Despite all of this, the Bears still lost. The Broncos did just enough by spreading it around. Unfortunately, Chicago doesn’t get to play Denver every week so let’s pump the brakes on a Midway revival.
The Ravens needed this Mark Andrews badly. His five targets led the depleted Baltimore receivers. His two touchdowns reminded us he’s still Lamar Jackson’s redzone go-to. Again, the Ravens need this and would be crazy to go away from it in the weeks ahead.
Is it fair to say the Las Vegas Raiders are a mess? I think it’s more than fair. Hell, that might even be an undersell. But it’s always darkest just before the dawn, as they say. Unfortunately for the Raiders, this is like that six-month period of time in Alaska where it’s 24-hour darkness.
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That doesn’t mean there can’t be bright spots, though! Welcome back to the fold, Josh Jacobs. Fantasy owners likely expected more through four weeks, but you could argue Week 4 of last season is when Jacobs got it rolling on his way to a rushing title. This year’s Week 4 was better than that one so let’s hope he can keep it going.
Michael Wilson is a household name. I am very confident there are multiple Michael Wilson’s in houses all around the world. I will forgive you, though, if you didn’t have *the* Michael Wilson rostered on your fantasy squad, but maybe you should. His two scores built on a good Week 3, but more importantly he has overtaken Rondale Moore in Arizona and is a threat to be a top-2 or -3 option weekly in the Cardinals offense. And let’s give it up for Josh Dobbs.
This weekly column isn’t always about the BIGGEST performances. Sometimes it’s about guys who you just flat out should consider rostering. That’s Jonnu Smith and his 95 yards as the Atlanta Falcons’ second (but really first) tight end.
Personally, I’m moving on from Kyle Pitts in non-dynasty formats. You can do it, too. Sure, he might have that *one* game where he makes you think about what could be, but you know it’s not reality. Smith has almost doubled up on Pitts in terms of fantasy points this season.
Chris Olave can be a guy you build a gameplan around, but one catch for four yards on six targets is not how you do it. If Derek Carr was deemed healthy enough to be the starting quarterback, then I’m not going to blame his health on this.
I’m more worried about Alvin Kamara’s 14 targets on his return. That’s less run for Olave and the rest of the receiving corps. The offense has also only scored 20 points or more once.
I’ll throw Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert in here. I guess it’s hard not to have sky-high hopes after a 70-point game, but the Dolphins were brought back down to Earth. Hill had only 58 scoreless yards, but he’ll be fine.
Mostert is a tougher call. I called him MustStart, but tack on a couple of fumbles and De’Von Achane’s ascension … what do I call him now? The Miami offense (and your fantasy team) can still support both backs, but Achane wasn’t a fluke and that can only mean Mostert’s ceiling is limited.
Lastly, let’s go back to “give it two weeks … give it another two weeks.” I thought of that phrase when looking at the Cincinnati Bengals this season. Just give it a couple weeks! They’ll be fine! They are not fine. The game against the Tennessee Titans was supposed to be the “get right” game. They were coming off a win against the Los Angeles Rams and finally got Ja’Marr Chase involved, but nothing kept rolling.
Joe Burrow has flat out stunk, and the offense has scored three total touchdowns. Tee Higgins is hurt now. It’s been two weeks and another two weeks. They’re KILLING your fantasy team if you have virtually any Bengal.
Well, I’m gonna give it another two weeks because I refuse to believe they forgot how to play football. At least until the next poor performance.
TV lays out great Fantasy plays for Chiefs-Jets game
On Sunday Night Football, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are on the East Coast to take on the New York Jets.
New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 pm ET
Jets
Chiefs
Jets
Chiefs
The injuries aren’t considered altering for either side. Bolton is probably the most significant loss, but his absence likely won’t affect the Chiefs’ ability to keep the Jets’ struggling offense grounded.
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Patrick Mahomes is projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate over at DraftKings -- 43%, with KC tight end Travis Kelce next at 24.5%.
Regarding flex positions, it’s projected to be much more balanced. In Showdown lineups, seven players are projected to be owned in over 30% of lineups.
This is Mahomes’ first career game at MetLife Stadium. He and the Chiefs offense must come with their best, because the Jets’ defense is its strength.
Offensively, the Jets send out 2021 No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson to lead a unit that has been pitiful. He has the lowest QBR (34.4) in the NFL since he entered the league. The Jets rank last in points scored, total yards, and first downs. And the Chiefs’ defense are No. 4 in points allowed.
The Chiefs are an 8.5-point favorite, and Mahomes has a 37-3 won-loss record in games where he’s a touchdown favorite or greater.
Travis Kelce, Chiefs, $16,500 - Captain Slot
With Mahomes projected to be the highest-owned Captain, Kelce is a great alternative in lineups. The Optimizer agrees. A Mahomes-Kelce stack is practically required.
Mahomes and the Chiefs got things back on track against a terrible Bears defense in Week 3 as he threw for 272 yards and three touchdowns, Kelce was on the receiving end of one of them.
The Jets have a complete defense, but they have allowed the fifth-most yards and three touchdowns to tight ends.
Jets DC Robert Saleh’s defenses have been susceptible against tight ends since he was with San Francisco. Going back to last season, Kelce has scored in five straight games.
Rashee Rice, Chiefs, $4,800
I like this rookie receiver to get involved. The Chiefs running backs won’t have room to run against a Jets defense that is allowing the second-lowest yards after contact and the fourth-fewest explosive runs. This leads me to lean towards another Chiefs pass catcher, and Rice is my favorite of the group.
The Jets’ defense has been stellar defending receivers since the start of last season, but they have a small hole defending the slot. Rice will run most of his routes against Michael Carter there.
Last week, we saw Rice with multiple red zone targets, and he even had a touchdown that was called on the field overturned with the ruling that he was down at the goal line. He trailed only Kelce in targets and receptions last week. We can see Rice leading the crowded KC receiver room Sunday night.
Chiefs Defense/Special Teams $5,200
The Chiefs’ defense appears to be the real deal to combine with its high-powered offense, and the Jets have the worst offense in the NFL. They have converted only three of their last 24 third downs.
The last time Mahomes faced the Jets, the Chiefs won 35-9 at Arrowhead. I expect a similar outcome. If the Chiefs offensive line can keep the Jets pass rush at bay, Mahomes will have a good night.
Mahomes and Kelce are approaching Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham for the most touchdown connections between a QB and TE.
Final Score: Chiefs 30, Jets 13
'Monotone' gives you his top TD props
I expected Chase to be -110 across the board, so I’m very surprised to see +125 on FanDuel. Chase currently leads the league in WR targets without a touchdown, and I think that changes Sunday. He’s also a good bet for 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown against one of the biggest pass funnels in the league. The Titans' rush defense is in the top five in success rate this year, and I don’t think Joe Mixon is going to be the guy to change that. There should be a steady dose of targets for Burrow's top target.
We constantly see Josh Allen’s rushing attempts increase in competitive games, and that’s been backed up by his quotes in the media on running in important vs. unimportant situations. This Dolphins matchup profiles as one of the highest-scoring of the season, and the Bills should have plenty of redzone opportunities. While James Cook has been a good addition to the team, the smaller back doesn’t profile as much of a goal line back. I expect Allen to primarily operate as their red zone rushing option, and he also has scramble potential outside of the red zone with those Dolphins deep safety looks.
We cashed Anthony Richardson in this very article when he scored two touchdowns before going down with an injury before halftime. He’s back in the lineup, and I’m surprised we’re getting this prop at plus money. Richardson will continue to be the No. 1 goal line option, even with Zack Moss playing better than Deon Jackson. There is a reason that Cam Newton and Josh Allen are top-5 in goal-line efficiency in the last 25 years; it’s a very hard play to stop. Richardson is more athletic than both of those quarterbacks, and I expect him to continue to be the focus of all the Colts' goal-line packages.
This Denver/Chicago game is going to be one of the more exciting games of the week between two bottom feeders on the defensive side of the ball. I think we will have plenty of scoring opportunities in this one, and the RB has already been involved in the red zone, scoring a first quarter touchdown against the Commanders. He’s someone that made waves in training camp and has earned touches this week. I like taking my chances at +800.
Mims has been the most impressive offensive player on the Broncos, despite only playing limited snaps. Rumors out of Denver are heavily implying he will be more involved this week, and he gets an amazing matchup. I think this will end up being Denver's most impressive offensive performance, and getting these good prices on some of the lesser-known players is a good angle. Mims has also had some huge plays on special teams, and I’ll always take the added opportunities. Asking a big play player to make a big play here!
Finally, another backup tight end longshot after cashing last week! Smith had surprising usage last week, and I think we might see that again. Pitts doesn't look healthy at all on film and is also running tougher downfield routes. Smith has recorded more than a 70% route participation in back-to-back weeks and has some solid yards after catch upside. Jacksonville is a pass funnel which is bottom-5 in fantasy points against the tight end position. I like the sneaky longshot here.
Fantasy Football Experts Stu (Montone) Durst, and Terrell Furman review all the NFL Week 8 games, give you all the Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 9 and recap the Monday Night Football Game between the Raiders and the Lions. Check the Fantasy Fire and Ice Podcast daily for injury updates, breaking NFL news, and player profiles.
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