The waiver run after Week 1 of the NFL season can be the most important for your fantasy team, but be careful not to overreact. This waiver run is where you may have picked up Cordarrelle Patterson or Phillip Lindsay on the way to a championship in past years, but it also is where you may have dropped 50 percent of your FAAB on Marquez Callaway on the way to a 6th-place finish.
If you correctly read the tea leaves, the outcome can be winning your league. There’s a lot of fool’s gold out there though, so let’s find our way through it.
Wide Receivers
Puka Nacua, Rams (10% Rostered)
With Cooper Kupp on IR, many expected Van Jefferson or even Tyler Higbee to be heavily targeted in the Rams’ Week 1 matchup against the Seahawks. In walks fifth-round pick Nacua to establish himself as the team’s top option in Kupp’s absence.
While we try not to overreact, don’t underreact either to 15 targets, 10 receptions, and 119 yards. That’s 21.9 PPR fantasy points without a touchdown. Nacua should be rostered in all leagues.
Zay Jones, Jaguars (37% Rostered)
Say hello to Jacksonville’s WR2. There was motion around him in the WR room this offseason with the addition of Calvin Ridley, but this seems to have had more of an impact on teammate Christian Kirk than it did on Jones.
While I fully expect $20 million man Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram to have their games, Jones appears to be a core part of this ascending Jaguars offensive game plan.
Jakobi Meyers, Raiders (51% Rostered)
Meyers took every comment from every analyst calling him ‘boring’ or ‘just a guy’ and hung them in his locker heading into this game. He showed up with two touchdowns and out-targeted teammate Davante Adams.
Meyers appears to be an integral part of this team and a favorite of new Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo. While his Week 2 status is up in the air because of a potential concussion. He’s still worth adding as Jimmy G’s slot guy, so you just might have to wait a week.
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Kendrick Bourne, Patriots (2% Rostered)
Eleven targets on a team with an unclear wide receiver pecking order? Sign me up. While Bourne seems like a boring roster clogging type of player to add, I’m throwing away everything we saw from the New England offense last year when Matt Patricia was calling plays, and that includes Bourne’s usage last season.
Bourne may be establishing himself as Mac Jones' favorite target. But Bourne will probably just be a contributor in an offense that infuriates fantasy managers and spreads the ball around (think a way less fun version of the Chiefs).
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That being said, the Patriots head to Miami next weekend and I want the player who appears to be the odds on favorite as the top target for this team heading into what could be a shootout.
Rashee Rice, Chiefs (53% Rostered)
Check your waiver wire to see if this rookie is there. I’m not comfortable starting him this upcoming week (or any Chiefs’ wide receiver really) but there were signs Thursday night that Rice could separate himself as the No. 1 as the season progresses. If there’s evidence that a wide receiver could become a favorite target of Patrick Mahomes, you roster him.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams, Rams (6% Rostered)
Cam Akers had 22 carries to Kyren Williams’ 15, but in every other statistical category Williams had him beat. I don’t know what happened to the Akers we saw at the end of last season, but this is looking like a split backfield at best.
If the level of play from these two backs is similar in the coming weeks, I’d expect more and more of a shift toward Williams. Be wary of starting him next week against a solid 49ers defense.
Joshua Kelley (7% Rostered)
High. Value. Backup. Kelley’s 16 carries, 91 yards, and a TD this week communicated that not only is he the backup to roster behind Austin Ekeler, but he also has weekly startability as a flex play. There isn’t any real upside to Kelley – all of that belongs to his friend Ekeler, weekly fantasy production with the upside of filling in if there is an injury in front of him makes him a must add.
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons (57% Rostered)
Avert your eyes, Kyle Pitts and Drake London fans, because this Falcons’ offense is all about the run. Key beneficiary? Last year’s quietest 1,000-yard rusher, Allgeier. While he won’t outcarry Bijan Robinson much longer, he should have a continued role in this VERY rush heavy offense.
Similar to Kelley, the upside is capped because Bijan is holding onto most of it. But also similar to Kelley, Allgeier has weekly stand alone value and is a high value backup to Robinson.
Gus Edwards, Ravens (20% Rostered) /Justice Hill / Melvin Gordon
Edwards ‘should’ be the lead back in this Ravens offense with the unfortunate season ending injury to JK Dobbins in Week 1, but what we saw this weekend doesn’t necessarily support that. The Ravens split carries evenly between backs Edwards and Hill, with the goal line work confusingly going to Hill.
Of the backs here, I like Edwards. His career Yards Per Attempt is over 5 and he has the build to be the goalline back. Let your league mates bid up Hill on the waiver wire and snag the true lead back in Edwards.
It’s not a bad idea to throw a waiver claim on Gordon either. He’s being elevated from the practice squad and that’d be so very Ravens of this team to have Gordon lead the backfield.
Leonard Fournette / Kareem Hunt, free agents
These are luxury adds if you have the bench space. We were reminded in Week 1 about the fragility of the running back position. Injuries are inevitable. While not currently signed, I expect both of these backs to sign as team needs arise.
Preference goes to Fournette because he’s better, but both are decent stashes at this point in the season.
Tight Ends
Hayden Hurst (12% Rostered)
Hurst is the best receiver on the Panthers. That says more about the other options there (sorry Terrace Marshall) than it does about Hurst, but the outcome is the same for fantasy: a tight end who could very well be the top target on his team is just sitting on the waiver wire in near 90% of leagues.
Opportunity is king for the TE position, and with rookie Bryce Young taking a liking to Hurst, the opportunity knows no limit (well, except for the limitations of this Panthers’ offense as a whole).
Zach Ertz, Cardinals (11% Rostered)
Gross, I know. But Ertz had 10 targets and it’s not something we can just ignore. While Kyler Murray is out at least, Ertz is a viable start on volume alone. Don’t get your hopes up though, those 10 targets turned into just six catches for 21 yards. 8.1 fantasy points is fine. If Ertz doesn’t catch a touchdown, you’re okay with it. If he does? You’re thrilled. That’s about all you can ask for from most fantasy TEs.
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy, 49ers (51%)
Purdy made it clear the 49ers made the right decision in naming him the starter. That being said, being a good NFL quarterback and a good fantasy quarterback are two different things. If you need safety and consistency at QB, Purdy is a worthwhile add. If you need upside, he is not your guy.
Sam Howell, Commanders (23%)
Howell’s biggest gift to fantasy managers is the magic he can produce with his legs. We saw that on display with the rushing touchdown he brought in himself to add to the 202 yards passing and a TD he threw for. If you’re looking for upside on the waiver wire at the QB position, he’s your guy.
Jordan Love, Packers (39%)
Love balled out in the first game of the Aaron Rodgers-less Era. While only completing about half of his pass attempts (15/27), Love still had 245 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.
All this without presumed top pass catcher Christian Watson. While this is just one game against a subpar defense, what we saw could indicate Love is a top 12 fantasy QB just sitting on the waiver wire.
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