Anthony Richardson/Mike Williams/Tee Higgins +1588 Caesars
Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson was one of my favorite targets to score a touchdown this week, and I’m surprised we’re getting him at +190 considering the rookie hype. This guy is an insane athlete: 6’4, 250, with 4.4 40-yard dash and insane advanced metrics.
Even if you don’t believe in his ability as a passer, he is the clear goal line back in this offense. Guys like Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are regularly priced at -110, despite having a plethora of options around them, I promise you Richardson will find himself in that range sooner rather than later.
One of my favorite parts about this prop is the complete and utter lack of goal-line competition. Since they decided not to pay their best offense offensive player, the Colts had one of the least efficient ground games of the week, led by Deon Jackson.
In that game, Richardson scored his first NFL touchdown, with an impressive four redzone carries. You really don’t see that kind of volume in a rookie’s first game, and I expect it to continue given the Colts lack of secondary options.
Mike Williams is another one of my favorite touchdown targets. I loved how involved he was early in the Chargers game, even converting on two screen passes despite his usual deep ball usage (which he came through on later as well).
- Cody's Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE-K-Def
- Patriots Could Give Fins an Early Surprise
- Geno A Great DFS Value in Week 2
- These Guys Will Be in the Zone
- The Best and Worst from Vikings-Eagles
- Prescott Could Be in Trouble Vs Jets
- 'Hawks, Bills Will Bounce Back in Week 2
- 'Game of the Week' -- The Sequel
- Purdy: What You See Is What You Get
- These 3 Lines Are Worth a Look
Playing against the famous Fangio cover-2 isn’t great for a player like Williams, but now he gets the Titans who allowed the most receiving yards and explosive plays to wide receivers last year. That looked to stay pretty consistent in last week’s disaster of a football game.
He has the same alpha quality that I talked about in a guy like AJ Brown/DK Metcalf, where they can catch those 50/50 balls at such a high rate AND they are targets both inside and outside the redzone.
Williams appears healthy and good to go, I think we are getting value on this line! While I’m not depending on it; Ekeler being limited or injured could also really help this play given his redzone prowess.
*This parlay will have better odds when FD posts Williams’ touchdown number, I tried waiting for it to become available but nothing yet!
Finally, I’ll be talking about a wide receiver who laid a fat goose egg this week, Bengals receiver Tee Higgins. Despite the bad numbers on paper, he still did finish the week top 5 in air yards, just missing on a couple completions thanks to a terrible outing from franchise QB Joe Burrow.
This is simply a bet on the offense turning it around, especially against a Ravens team that lost their starting safety last week. I’m expecting a bounce back from Burrow, and Higgins possesses the same dominant redzone abilities that I’m always looking for.
I’ll take one of the best contested catch receivers in the league, in a game that should have some sneaky offense.
Kadarius Toney TD +330
After defending him all week, it’s time to put my money where my mouth is and get some Kadarius Toney action in! While Travis Kelce is the clear pick in the Chiefs’ offense, I think Toney really benefits from having that elite weapon back in the lineup.
Toney has never had amazing hands, but you do have to be getting consistently open to be able to make that many drops. I have feeling we see him bounce back strong this week.
One thing I love about Andy Reid is his redzone creativity, and a gadget player like Toney can give defenses lots of problems. He’s one of the few WR’s that I really wouldn’t be surprised to see score a rushing touchdown; and I think his versatility gives him some value here.
Toney is a risky play, so I’m avoiding him for parlays, but I think this number presents some value in a game with plenty of shootout potential.
Jets D/ST +1100
While I think the other side of this is going to be much more popular, I think there is value on both sides. Two of the best defenses squaring off head-to-head, including a Jets side coming off a three in creation game.
Dak Prescott led the league in interceptions last season, and we haven’t seen him tested in a competitive game this year. If the Jets win, they need to overperform on special teams and defense, and I think this Longshot is worth a sprinkle!