Week 3 is upon us, and with that another chance for ball spikes and celebrations in the end zone. Here are my top choices for TD props for this weekend's NFL action.
Joshua Kelley (Chargers RB), Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks RB), and Travis Etienne Jr. (Jaguars RB) TD +580
Joshua Kelley is someone I like targeting for a touchdown, especially considering the 54-point total in the Chargers-Vikings game. We have two of the worst defenses in the league facing off against each other, and without Chargers RB Austin Ekeler, Kelley will have a large chunk of the opportunities.
People were low on Kelley last week, but the Titans have one of the best run defenses in the league and one of the worst pass defenses. I expect a more balanced attack against the Vikings, with plenty of opportunities.
Travis Etienne Jr. has a good chance to get into the end zone. The Texans allowed four rushing touchdowns to the Colts last weekend and three to the Ravens RBs in Week 1. ETN is in line for 15+ carries, and the Jaguars are likely to be in a rush-heavy gamescript for most of this one. With an implied team total of over three touchdowns, and no Christian Kirk, ETN should see 3+ red zone carries.
Speaking of positive game script, Kenneth Walker III finds himself in another very intriguing matchup – Panthers at Seahawks. While there were questions about how much of the workload he would handle before the season started, he’s clearly shown to be the workhorse back.
Walker has two touchdowns, with 16 and 18 total touches in the first two weeks. This should be the best matchup he’s had yet, and I expect him to capitalize on it.
Justin Fields (Bears QB) TD +200
I think a lot of NFL fans are very curious to see how Fields performs against the Chiefs after a very rough start to the season. With the comments made in the media, it seems he’s interested in diverting back to the playstyle we saw from him last season.
I’m expecting more designed runs and more carries. While I don’t have confidence in this offense, I do have confidence in this defense getting torn apart by the Chiefs. KC QB Patrick Mahomes will have a lot of success, which should generate a lot of garbage time chances.
We’ve seen Fields break a lot of big plays, but he should also be a huge part of the the redzone playbook when given the chance.
Donald Parham (Chargers TE) +370 (Fanduel)
Parham is not a household name, but the former XFL legend has carved out a strong red zone role for the Chargers. He’s expanded that even more this season, playing more snaps and running more routes than Gerald Everett last week. This resulted in two red zone targets for the mega-sized tight end. Now that we have an incredibly high-scoring matchup (Chargers at Vikings), we should have our chances here.
Fantasy players will need to keep a close eye on Arizona-New York as there is a good chance of rain throughout that game, and there’s also a possibility of rain in Giants-Padres; although that one looks like it should be able to be played.
Injury Report
Wilmer Flores, Giants 1B, knee: Flores left Sunday’s loss to the Dodgers with right knee discomfort. The veteran infielder went 2 for 2 before exiting, and is considered day-to-day. There’s a strong chance he’ll be out of the lineup for Monday’s game against San Diego.
Michael Brantley, Astros DH, shoulder: Brantley has not been able to play since September 17 because of soreness in his shoulder, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be back in the lineup for Monday’s massive game against the Mariners in Seattle.
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks 2B, illness: Marte was scratched late from Sunday’s game due to being under the weather. If Marte can’t go Monday, Jordan Lawlar will likely be the starting shortstop with Geraldo Perdomo at second base.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers for Main Slate (DraftKings)
Blake Snell @ SF: $9,600
Luis Castillo vs. HOU: $9,300
Justin Verlander @ SEA: $8,500
Logan Webb vs. SD: $7,900
Jon Gray @ LAA: $6,400
Patrick Sandoval vs. TEX: $6,000
For a slate that only features three games, there’s some awfully good starting pitching options. It starts with Snell, the presumed National League Cy Young favorite who is coming off seven no-hit innings against Colorado with 10 strikeouts. He’s allowed just one hit over his last two starts, and only two total runs in the month of September over 25 innings (0.72 ERA) with a 34/12 K/BB ratio.
Simply put, Snell is pitching as well -- if not better -- than anyone in baseball, and it’s hard to argue against using him against a mediocre San Francisco lineup.
The Verlander-Castillo matchup is a fascinating one, as it pits two pitchers that have been among the best in the sport over the last few years, but also features two teams that have played less-than-spectacular baseball over the last few weeks.
In fact, the Astros were swept by the lowly Royals over the weekend, while Seattle saw its struggles against Texas continue with their own three-game demise.
It also features two pitchers that have seen opposite levels of success as of late, as Verlander has a 5.19 ERA in his four starts in September, while Castillo has registered a solid -- if unspectacular -- 3.38 mark. The latter also hasn’t picked up a loss since July 14, and he makes a little more sense as a DFS option than Verlander at this point.
Gray vs. Sandoval offers the “cheap” entry points for Monday’s action, and it’s not hard to understand why. Gray hasn’t gone more than four innings in a start since he threw five middling frames against the Twins, and his ERA in the month of September -- small-sampled though it may be -- is an unhealthy 8.56.
Sandoval is actually coming off a solid outing against the Rays on Tuesday where he spun five innings of two-run baseball, but he had allowed a combined 15 runs in his two starts before that. He’s the kind hurler who is more likely to give you a chance for a win, but the fact he plays for one of the worst teams in baseball over the last month-plus makes it not worth the risk.
Sneaky option
There are no sneaky options. It’s very hard to sneak up on anyone when there’s only three games in the main slate.
Stack Attack
Angels vs. Rangers (Gray)
C Logan O’Hoppe: $3,700
1B Logan Schanuel: 3,400
OF Jo Adell: $3,500
The only real question for me if you’re going to do a stack is whether to use it against the Angels or Rangers. The other starting pitching options are just too good for me to feel confident basing my DFS lineup on.
I’ll go with the Angels and the cheapness of these three against a pitcher in Gray who just hasn’t been very good for a while now, and it allows me to add some star plates like Juan Soto, Marcus Semien and two quality pitchers in Castillo and Webb. Certainly, some risk but the risk comes with plenty of reward.
Brian Robinson is being used in a full-blown bell cow role for the 2-0 Washington Commanders. He's fourth in the NFL with 37 rush attempts, eighth in rushing yards, and No. 1 in first downs gained with 13. Most importantly, Robinson is out-carrying counterpart Antonio Gibson 37 to five.
Only three running backs have finished with 19.9+ fantasy points in both Week 1 and Week 2:
Christian McCaffrey
Bijan Robinson
Tony Pollard
Ken Walker sees himself in the top five this week for the first time in 2023. He has a stranglehold on the Seahawks backfield with a 62% snap share, and a 73% opportunity share, despite a slow start to the season that had us assuming Seattle would push rookie Zach Charbonnet into the lineup more.
Walker finished as RB14 in Week 2, during a tough game script. In Week 3, the Carolina Panthers come to town after allowing a combined 254 rushing yards to the Falcons and Saints during the first two weeks.
We have a full slate of games Sunday across MLB, including a day-night doubleheader between the Braves and Nationals. There are a few spots with massive playoff implications as the Rangers host the Mariners with 1.5 games separating them, and the Blue Jays and Rays continue to jockey for Wild Card positioning.
There are plenty of guys who won’t play, and that’s September baseball, so remain flexible. I’ll dive into the foundational building blocks you need to construct your lineups around.
Weather Report
The effects of Tropical Storm Ophelia will be felt in the Northeast. Mainly, Philadelphia and the Bronx are two spots we’re keeping a close eye on.
Injury Report
Luis Arraez, leg – He left Saturday’s game early. It’s uncertain if he will be back in the lineup.
Tony Kemp, ankle – It was announced yesterday that Kemp will be out indefinitely with an ankle injury.
Randy Arozarena, quad – He missed Saturday’s clash with the Jays and it’s currently unknown if he will be in the lineup.
Top-Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Spencer Strider @. WAS: $12,900
Freddy Peralta @ MIA: $11,200
Zac Gallen @ NYY: $10,000
Joe Ryan Vs. LAA: $9,500
Nathan Eovaldi vs. SEA: $9,100
There’s no denying how great Strider has been. In his last two starts, he faced a deep Phillies lineup and went 7 innings in each start, allowing 4 hits in both. He struck out 11 and 9 batters in each outing. He put himself into the history books as he officially owns the most strikeouts of any pitcher in their first 50 starts since 1893! The Contrarian Edge Optimizer is not suggesting rostering Strider today though. Likely due to the insane $12,900 salary.
The Optimizer again isn’t considering the second-highest salaried pitcher today, Freddy Peralta. My assumption is that the Brewers won’t be looking for Freddy to go deep into the game as they have locked up the NL Central division crown. He has been great of late, posting a 1.96 ERA over his last 10 starts. Despite some great names on today’s board, we’re going to look to roster some cheaper options at starting pitcher.
Sneaky Option
Hunter Brown vs. KC: $8,800
There are plenty of cheaper options at starting pitcher if we don’t want to pay up for guys like Strider. Brown is an obvious choice. You see the Astros are playing at home against the Royals, and you gravitate to that spot. Do you want someone who can strike people out? Brown is your guy. The 25-year-old has had some rough starts of late, but he’s had at least 5 strikeouts in 6 straight starts. On the surface, the Royals aren’t a perfect spot for strikeouts, but on the road, they have the fifth-most per game, and they have the lowest batting average in the league in away games.
Jordan Wicks vs. COL: $7,000
The 24-year-old lefty Wicks will toe the rubber for the Cubs today at Wrigley. He gets to face the struggling Rockies, which he recently threw 6 innings against on the road and allowed just 3 hits. He has a 2.67 ERA through his first 5 career starts. The Rockies have the fourth most strikeouts since the All-Star break and have the third-lowest batting average against lefties this season!
Stack Attack
Cubs vs. Rockies (Ty Blach)
We’ll stay at Wrigley and stack Cubbies bats against the veteran lefty Blach. Multiple Cubs hitters have had previous success facing Blach. In 2 of his last 3 starts, he’s allowed 3 homeruns! In September alone, he’s given up 19 runs in 19.2 innings. I would like to see Nico Hoerner $5,700 in lineups as he’s the best Cubs bat. He’s hitting .287 with 42 steals. It doesn’t hurt that he’s 3 for 4 in his career versus Blach. Believe it or not, but Cody Bellinger has spanked lefties this season. He has a .342 average when facing left-handed pitching versus .290 against righties. He’s hitting .333 in 24 at-bats against Blach. Cheaper outfield options like Ian Happ and Suzuki are really great pivots on Sunday.
2B Nico Hoerner $5,700
1B/OF Cody Bellinger $6,300
3B/OF Chris Morel $4,900
SS Dansby Swanson $5,100
OF Ian Happ $4,600
OF Seiya Suzuki $4,400
Astros vs. Royals (Steven Cruz)
As I said earlier, it’s natural to gravitate towards the Astros when they are at home facing the Royals, and in this case, it’s smart too. The Contrarian Edge Optimizer even agrees to stack Astros bats today. Cruz is going to be an opener for Kansas City today, meaning they will likely go to their bullpen in the second or third inning. The Royals pen has the 7th-highest home runs per 9 innings and the third-highest ERA in MLB. If you opt for cheaper starting pitching options, you can stack guys like Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. Tucker has a hit in 13 of 19 games in September, but he has struggled in the month overall, hitting just .214. He can be in for a bounce-back spot today. Altuve has been red-hot over the last week, hitting .360 with 4 extra-base hits.
We had a very good week in last week’s article. Geno Smith finished as the QB8! Rachaad White finished as the RB8! And Josh Reynolds finished as the WR9! White was in the winning million-dollar lineup on DraftKings. Once again, I used our Fantasy Sports Contrarian Optimizer to help me extract more from player being undervalued in DFS. Here is who I am on this week:
This week is slightly more difficult. A lot of big-name quarterbacks have great matchups. But, if you did not know, I am a degenerate. So, we are going low price, high reward and look no other than your QB13 last week in Stroud.
Regardless of the outcome of the game, fantasy points are fantasy points. And Stroud was garbage time king last week, finishing with 384 passing yards and two touchdowns. Despite getting rolled by the Colts, Stroud showed me enough to look at him again this week.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, for whatever reason, struggle with the Texans. They’ve lost five straight home games to them. Now, they have the Texans in a clear lookahead spot to a long road trip to London for the next two weeks.
And the Jags have given up the ninth most passing yards in the league, and they are giving up the fourth most fantasy points to QBs on DraftKings and the fifth most on FanDuel. Stroud may or may not have it in him to will this team to a win, but this sets up well to have a really good fantasy day.
RB: Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers (DK: $5,400, FD: $6,100)
I mentioned it last week. De’Andre Swift gashed this Minnesota Vikings defense in Week 2. This seemed like an amazing opportunity to be able to hop on the fade Minnesota run defense train.
This is the highest total of Week 3, so there could be a lot of fantasy points. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler has been ruled out another week and even he said the Joshua Kelley breakout is coming. Many Justin Herbert stacks are going to include his cadre of talented receivers, but if you want to go contrarian, then a cheap option in Kelley is it.
The Vikings have allowed the second most rushing yards to running backs, excluding the New York Giants who played their Week 3 game already. While I do expect the receivers to carry the Chargers down the field, Kelley leads the team in red zone opportunities. The optimizer likes the opportunity for Kelley to score at least two TDs, thanks to big plays.
We said it last week. Say it again for me: GAME STACK!! Did you see me point out that this game has the highest total on the board? Here is the reason why.
The Los Angeles Chargers – even despite the Giants and 49ers having played an extra game already -- lead the NFL in giving up receiving yards to WRs, and by far giving up the most fantasy points to the position.
All Vikings stacks will have Justin Jefferson (of course) and Jordan Addison. Addison has scored in his first two NFL games — he’s clear cut the WR2 right? Not so fast. K.J. Osborn is out snapping Addison and receiving more targets and more redzone targets.
The Osborn breakout is coming, and this could be the week with Jefferson and Addison clearly getting all the attention by the Chargers defense. The optimizer has Osborn as a cheap wide receiver option in this big game.
TE: Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints (DK: $3,300, FD:)
We have a Taysom Hill sighting for Week 3. As somebody who punted TE in season-long fantasy, I stream tight end every week, so I am always looking for cheap options.
With Saints RBs Alvin Kamara suspended for one more week and Jamaal Williams out with injury, Hill got a good amount of work as a running back last week. He has always been a utility player for the Saints. Do I think he is going to continue to pace them in carries? Absolutely not.
But the goal line is where the Saints get very creative with Hill. They line him up at tight end, running back, and quarterback when they get in close. Without their bruiser on the goal line, I am hoping for a couple short TDs, as it seems he has a big game every season.
We’ve made it to Sunday night! After an action-packed day, we cap off a wild weekend with an AFC battle. Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Las Vegas to take on Davante Adams and the Raiders for Sunday Night Football.
Game
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:20 pm ET
Betting Odds (DraftKings)
Line: Raiders -2.5, Steelers +2.5
Moneyline: Raiders (-142), Steelers (+120)
Over/Under: 43
Team Ranks (2023)
Raiders
Points for: 13.5 (30th)
Points Allowed: 27.0 (25th)
Steelers
Points For: 16.5 (26th)
Points Allowed: 26.0 (23rd)
Key Injuries to Watch
Raiders
DE Tyree Wilson (Illness) – Questionable
Steelers
WR Gunner Olszewski (Concussion) – Out
It should be noted that Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers has been dealing with a concussion but has practiced fully, which is a good sign he will be cleared to play on Sunday night. The other major injury note is the Steelers defensive line will be without standout defensive tackle Cam Heyward for about two months, leaving a massive hole up the middle in their defense.
Captain Prices (DraftKings)
Davante Adams, WR $17,400
Josh Jacobs, RB, $16,200
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, $15,300
Kenny Pickett, QB, $14,700
George Pickens, WR, $13,800
Najee Harris, RB, $13,200
Jakobi Meyers, WR, $12,900
Flex Prices (DraftKings)
Davante Adams, WR $11,600
Josh Jacobs, RB, $10,800
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, $10,200
Kenny Pickett, QB, $9,800
George Pickens, WR, $9,200
Najee Harris, RB, $8,800
Jakobi Meyers, WR, $8,600
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Davante Adams is projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate over at DraftKings. Adams is the highest projected owned overall in over 55 percent of lineups, including the flex. There are not many surprises expected when it comes to ownership for Showdown lineups.
Typically, a quarterback will be the most expensive option, but sometimes, when Davante Adams is on the field, he gets the nod as the priciest option. The Steelers defense has allowed the 11th-most yards to receivers through the first two weeks. Adams is a target and touchdown scoring machine. Slot receiver Jakobi Meyers should return to the field after missing Week 2, and this will only benefit Adams.
The quarterback battle between veteran Jimmy Garoppolo and second-year man Kenny Pickett is intriguing. Jimmy G will make his first start at home as a member of the Raiders. Pickett has struggled in his first two starts, but he’s faced arguably two top-five defenses. On paper, the Raider defense should allow Pickett and the Steeler offense to get back on track.
The Steelers offense features two running backs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. It’s difficult to trust and assess which guy will have the greater impact on Sunday night. Warren appears to be more explosive, but his 47 snaps trails Harris (62 snaps). Warren is second on the Steelers in targets with 12.
There’s not much to note regarding the tight ends in this one as the Steelers are a top defense defending tight ends, and Pat Freiermuth is off to a slow start this season. His target share has gone from 18% last season down to just 7% through the first two weeks of the season.
Strong Captain Option
George Pickens, Steelers WR, $13,800 - Captain Slot
Pickens has a chance to go bonkers. The Raider defense has allowed a league-high completion rate and the second-highest passing touchdown rate. The Raiders have also allowed a league-high 84% catch rate to wide receivers.
The second-year wide receiver led Pittsburgh with a massive 34.5% target share in the Week 2 win and scored a long touchdown. At 6-foot-3, he has the catch radius that quarterbacks love throwing to. Pickett recently said, “I’m going to put in in his zip code, and he’ll do the rest. That’s kind of been the MO here since I’ve started, so he’s an unbelievable player. Just continue to put the ball, throw it his way, and let him do the rest.”
The Pickett-to-Pickens connection will be on full display Sunday night. If the Raiders choose to double him with safety help, the next two receiving options will play a major role. My favorite and the Contrarian Edge Optimizer’s favorite of the next is Allen Robinson.
Cheaper Options
Allen Robinson $5,000
With Diontae Johnson out for at least two more weeks, Robinson will continue to see increased work. As WR3 coming into the season, he has been thrust into a full-time role.
Pickens is the truth and future, but the veteran Robinson actually played the most snaps of any Steeler skill position player in Week 2. He had a poor game, but that’s mostly due to the Browns strength in the secondary. In Week 1, he reeled in 5 of 8 targets for 64 yards.
We can expect similar production this week, and if he somehow finds the endzone, it will be even sweeter.
Calvin Austin $4,200
Austin is in a similar boat as Robinson. It’s likely Pickens will lead the Steelers in receiving Sunday night, but one of these two will also play a major role. Austin played 6 fewer snaps than Robinson and 5 fewer than Pickens last week. Expect similar snap counts for the trio and at least two of these guys to produce respectable numbers, with a chance of one leading the scoring.
Prediction
Both teams are 1-1. It’s surprising to see the Raiders favored, as many had the Steelers as a playoff contender in the AFC. Both offenses have struggled, but they have faced tough defenses. Each side has playmakers, and both defenses have struggled. This should be a big night for Josh Jacobs against a bad Pittsburgh run defense, but in the end, I expect Kenny Pickett and George Pickens to connect on big plays that will be enough to squeak out a win.
It’s Friday and you guys know what that means -- time to fade ‘em up, Week 3 edition. Of the five guys I listed as ‘fades’ last week, three of them put up season-highs in fantasy points. Perhaps they’re a weekly reader of mine and used my analysis as fuel?
Either way, let’s hope the following players can escape the wrath of my doghouse as well — after the conclusion of Week 3 (all salaries courtesy of DraftKings).
QB: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns ($6,100, QB14 at cost)
Watson’s ownership percentage of 4.3% is higher than Josh Allen’s, Tua’s, Dak Prescott, and Justin Fields’ - which is bizarre given how he’s looked in his last eight games as a Brown.
Sure, QB14 at cost isn’t exorbitant, but he has yet to complete at least 60 percent of his passes nor average 6 yards or more per attempt. Plus, he’s been sacked nine times in two games for a team that lost its workhorse in Nick Chubb. No thanks.
For those wondering whether or not the Houston version of Watson is gone for good, these next few weeks will be very telling. He will have to carry the offense ala his Texan days.
Until then, I’d advise fantasy owners everywhere to stay far and away as there’s other options with more upside and cheaper.
RB: AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers ($5,700, RB21 at cost)
Once upon a time, Dillon looked like the future of the Packers running back room. If you recall, he rushed for over 800 yards and had 7 total touchdowns playing alongside 2021 MVP Aaron Rodgers.
Dating back to Week 15 of last season, Dillon hasn’t cracked 4 ypc in his past six games. Not only has the efficiency cratered, his usage in the passing game has become almost non-existent as well.
Coupled with the fact that his Packers are taking on a formidable Saints defense that have been very stingy against the run – including holding Derrik Henry to under 70 yards in Week 1 – and I’m beginning to lose hope for Dillon as far as his fantasy prospects.
If Aaron Jones is ready to go Sunday, it might be all the more reason to fade Dillon, regardless of cost.
WR: Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals ($8,000, WR4 at cost)
I never thought I’d do this, but I’m going to fade a top 5 player at his position – just for this week.
Although not entirely his fault, the status of Cincy QB Joe Burrow is still up in the air for Monday Night Football as of Friday. Given that he likely won’t be 100 percent even if he does play, I have a difficult time believing in Chase if Jake Browning is the one throwing him passes against a very underrated Rams secondary.
There’s a crazy stat going around that Chase has the least yards through two games (70) for somebody that has at least 15 targets.
Ultimately, his supreme talent will win out. Even if he produces more against the Rams than he has this season – relative to cost -- you can find cheaper options with similar production.
If I get this wrong, I’ll never fade a top 5 at his position player ever again.
TE: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles ($4,700, TE5 at cost)
With just 6 receptions for 22 yards this season, Goedert hasn’t been anywhere near the top-5 TE he was projected to be, much less his current price point.
While we all knew he was going to be the third or fourth option in the passing game, even that seems to be in jeopardy given the heroics of the Eagles’ RB room.
To top it off, a matchup against underrated Bucs safeties Antoine Winfield Jr and Ryan Neal doesn’t exactly scream bounceback. They’ve yet to allow a TE to eclipse 40 receiving yards.
If you’re betting on a pass-catcher to bounce back for Philadelphia this week, I’d pivot towards AJ Brown instead.
FLEX: Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers ($5,900, WR25 at cost)
Even if Watson can play, Marshon Lattimore, Tyrann Mathieu, Paulson Adebo, and the rest of that nasty Saints defense will do everything in their power to make it look as if he didn’t play at all.
Hamstring injuries are tricky, especially for players who are reliant on speed and explosiveness in getting down the field. In addition, Watson’s boom-or-bust style of play is too risky to insert into lineups when we don’t know if he’s going to be 100 percent and whether or not he’ll be on a snap count.
I’m fading Watson in all formats of fantasy this week, DFS be damned.
Yes, it’s true -- Fantasy Sports Logic and the Contrarian Edge Optimizer won first place in the DraftKings Million Dollar to the Winner grand prize. We’ll get to that, but first my intro:
My name is R.C. Fischer, and I am a decade-plus-long football scout and Fantasy writer/player (and bettor) of football things for Fantasy Football Metrics.com, and I watch football games for a living. I am a fan of no NFL team, except the one I may have bet on. I review and study game tape for personal profit (or loss) in DFS and handicapping/props.
I watch the TNF games (and every NFL game) live, then watch it again on tape for scouting Fantasy/DFS and future betting (player props) purposes. And like a restaurant or movie critic, I’m here to report my critiques of this nationally televised game -- pro and con.
Here is the best and worst of TNF Week 3, Giants at 49ers:
Best: Fantasy Sports Logic wins DraftKings $1M Contest!
Seriously! No joke. 176,470 entries with a $2.25M prize pool and $1 million to the winner.
One of the FSL Optimizer’s entries won it. Holy cow!
Worst: It Was a First-Place Tie … with 124 Others!
The $1M prize got shredded into $10K-plus payouts. I’ve never hated 124 other random strangers so much before in all my life. But it’s a great DFS Optimizer and football theory/scouting effort accomplishment for the young company nonetheless -- and all kidding aside, congrats to the other winners.
Real people really do win!
When you have a TNF-only DFS showdown contest, there’s going to be a lot of duplicate entry potential. There’s only so many players to pick from, so ties are very possible especially when the obvious stars shine like they did in this game. But you also have to hook the right sleeper plays with them and FSL did.
A win is a win.
Best: Deebo Leads the Way
On the FSL Podcast for this TNF DFS preview (check out the TNF DFS preview show every Thursday on Sportstopia), Daryl Snyder and I discussed the extra boost reasoning for Deebo this night, and he didn’t disappoint. The late dagger bomb TD catch by Deebo put him over the top as the high PPR scorer of any player, QBs included, in this game.
Having Deebo as the ‘Captain’ of the winning Showdown entry was a must, and that’s just what we did by pushing a few different entries with him as the captain because of the strategy discussions on the FSL TNF Preview Podcast (that drops every Thursday).
Worst: Daniel Dimes Is Bad Loose Change
We did have entries banking on a big Dan Dimes run game/FF scoring game. However, Jones only rushed 2 times for 5 yards with no Saquon and a great need for him to run.
Somehow NYG had the bright idea to push more run game to Gary Brightwell for some reason. He too ran for five yards on four carries.
Best: Ronnie Bell, the Million Ten-Thousand Dollar Man!
Daryl Snyder and I also discussed the scouting logic behind playing Ronnie Bell for DFS on the TNF DFS Preview Podcast earlier in the day, and we switched some other long shot names out to insert more Bell, and ‘boom’.
Bell is Brandon Aiyuk-like, and had a great training camp and preseason, he was the natural hope to fill-in for Aiyuk this game. Bell wasn’t involved in the game as much as I thought he would, but he got a TD with his two-catch, 24-yard night, and the TD was all the DFS difference.
Worst: Jalin Hyatt, the Zero Dollar Man!
I liked Ronnie Bell and Jalin Hyatt as the long shot plays in this game for various reasons, but I had more confidence/hope in a Hyatt deep ball pop/TD.
I saw Hyatt run a deep route early, that I think was designed to go to him, where he lined up next to some other NYG WR and they sprinted off deep off the snap and then ran into each other making a cut and took each other out of the play and all Daniel Jones could do was throw it away in desperation.
Hyatt ended the game with zero catches on zero targets and earned zero dollars on any DFS lineup he was in.
Best: Kittle Over Waller
Waller had more universal DFS ownership appeal for good reason -- Kittle hasn’t been lighting up the stat sheets out of the gates in 2023. But our scouting/game script projected that the 49ers defense, known TE-killers for Fantasy scoring, would squash Waller too much, and thus Kittle, who was overdue, especially without Aiyuk there, was the better TE play.
Kittle snagged a season-best 7 catches for 90 yards, while Waller got all of 3 catches (on 7 targets) for 20 yards, and Waller did not look good (going forward for FF purposes).
The whole Waller-based NYG offense concept for 2023, they may need to rethink that.
Best: A Clear NFL Game Winner
No controversies here. The better team definitely won. San Fran won the time of possession 39/21. They converted 9 of 16 third downs. They had no turnovers (13 games in a row with 0 or 1 turnover in a game). And SF outgained the Giants 441 yards to 150. The 49ers handled business.
Worst: A Clear Loser
Me.
No, it’s not because I spent 3.5 hours of my life watching this dull mercy killing of NYG, but because I spent 3.5 hours watching it as an idiot who picked NYG +10.5 -- hoping they’d stay close for a cover.
Worst: Like Any Good Bettor, It’s the Ref’s Fault I Lost!
I think there were about 19 instances (that may be exaggerated some) where the Giants held the 49ers short on a 3rd-down play but then a flag would come in and give the 49ers an extended life, thus the lopsided time of possession and final score.
The Giants were hanging in there as best they could but all the yellow flags at the absolute wrong time every time did them in from.
Worst: Don’t Remind Purdy
We’ll end on a ‘worst’ from the way this game ended.
For the final kneel downs, $4.5M QB Sam Darnold took the final snaps as Brock Purdy and his $870K payroll watched from the sidelines as he went to 11-0 in regular season and playoff games where he played the majority of the snaps or started fully.
Unbelievable.
See you for TNF Week 4, Detroit at Green Bay, where we’ll try to win the Million DFS prize all alone this time. Baby steps …
The penultimate weekend of the regular season is here, and there are plenty of intriguing picks to make on a full Friday slate of MLB action.
Jameson Taillon: Two runs allowed - Over (Underdog)
We’ll try to build off the nice 4-for-5 day we had Wednesday by going with one that’s a pretty easy selection on paper. Yes, the Rockies are one of the worst teams in baseball, and yes, Taillon had a strong start two outings ago against the Diamondbacks. He also has struggled for much of the year and allowed five runs -- three earned -- against Colorado on September 13 and was pushed back. This would be an even easier call if it was in Colorado instead of Chicago, but either way, Taillon is not a reliable option.
Rafael Devers: 1.5 total bases - Over (PrizePicks)
Devers went hitless in his past two games but has a slash of .333/.446/.594 in September. He’ll face White Sox pitcher Touki Toussaint, who’s shown flashes but hasn’t been effective in back-to-back starts. Considering he gave up just one run over five innings against the Twins in his last outing, it’s likely Toussaint struggles, and it shouldn’t shock anyone if Devers reaches this total with ease.
Burnes faces the Marlins, who can be difficult to generate swings and misses against – they’re fourth best in strikeouts. But it’s difficult to bet against this total with Burnes, as the former Cy Young winner has struck out seven or more batters in four straight starts and five of his last six outings even while having mixed results in other categories. He should be able to generate just enough punch outs to cash this ticket.
Isaac Paredes: 1.5 hits + runs + RBI - Over (Underdog)
Paredes had two hits and three RBI in the final two games of the series against the Angels. He’s quietly put together an excellent campaign with 29 homers and an .845 OPS, but his last HR was against the Mariners on September 8. There’s no guarantee that changes Friday, but Chris Bassitt has allowed 27 homers this season in his 31 starts.
Jose Ramirez + Adley Rutschman: 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBI - Over (PrizePicks)
Might as well go with another over. Rutschman and the Orioles will be squaring off against Shane Bieber, who’s making his first start since the All-Star break. There are questions as to how deep he’ll be able to work in this contest. Ramirez will get Dean Kremer and hit from the left-side, and southpaw hitters have registered an .814 OPS against the right-hander in 2023.
Being honest with our fine readers, I’ve missed on the last three combo totals, and I’m due to get one right. Right?
With just over one week left in the regular season, there are still plenty of intriguing storylines to monitor, and compelling matchups with serious playoff implications, on tap for Friday’s jam-packed 15-game docket.
In addition to a pivotal showdown in the heart of Texas between the Mariners and Rangers, there’s a critical South Beach face-off between the Brewers and Marlins that will have immense playoff scenario ramifications.
There are a few intriguing stack options and low-cost savvy starting pitching options for savvy fantasy managers to speculate on, which should make for an exciting evening of late-season baseball.
Weather Report
There's a potential in-game delay in Washington with rain in the forecast for later in the contest. There's risk for starting pitchers here, but not enough to avoid this matchup.
Injury Report
Royce Lewis, Twins 3B (hamstring)
Lewis sat out Wednesday afternoon’s matinee against the Reds following an early exit Tuesday with left hamstring tightness. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day heading into Friday’s series opener against the Angels.
Brandon Lowe, Rays 2B (knee)
Lowe was lifted from the ninth inning Thursday against the Angels after fouling a ball off his right knee earlier in the contest. It doesn’t sound like a serious concern, but it’s a situation worth tracking closely ahead of Friday’s showdown against the Blue Jays.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays 1B (knee)
Guerrero Jr. is day-to-day with right knee inflammation after undergoing an MRI Wednesday night that didn’t reveal structural damage. The 24-year-old slugger appeared as a pinch-hitter Thursday against the Yankees, which seems to suggest that he could be ready to return this weekend.
Luis Arraez, Marlins 2B (ankle)
Arraez has missed two games since being scratched from Tuesday’s lineup after suffering a left ankle sprain during pregame infield drills. It sounds like he’ll be a game-time decision for Friday’s critical series opener against the Brewers.
Jake Burger, Marlins 3B (quad)
Burger is day-to-day heading into Friday’s series opener against the Brewers after being lifted from Wednesday’s game against the Mets with right quad tightness.
Christian Yelich, Brewers OF (back)
Yelich has missed 12 of Milwaukee's last 13 games due to an ongoing lower back issue, so it’s nearly impossible to forecast when he’ll be ready to return at this juncture. He’s too risky to roll with during Friday’s series opener in Miami.
DJ Stewart, Mets OF (wrist)
Stewart has missed two straight games due to left wrist soreness and should be considered day-to-day for the moment.
Ha-Seong Kim, Padres 2B/3B (abdomen)
Kim has missed four straight games due to abdominal tightness, but it sounds like he could be ready for Friday’s pivotal series opener against the Cardinals.
Willson Contreras, Cardinals C (wrist)
Contreras will miss the remainder of the regular season after undergoing an MRI on Thursday that revealed left wrist tendonitis.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Pablo López (MIN) vs. LAA: $10,700
Framber Valdez (OAK) vs. KC: $10,200
Charlie Morton (ATL) vs. WSH: $9,900
Shane Bieber (CLE) vs. BAL: $9,400
Chris Sale (BOS) vs. CWS: $9,200
Dean Kremer (BAL) vs. CLE: $8,700
Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs. NYM: $8,200
Bryce Miller (SEA) vs. TEX: $8,100
Dane Dunning (TEX) vs. SEA: $7,900
Cole Ragans (KC) vs. HOU: $7,800
Pablo López is aiming to rebound on Friday night with an extremely favorable matchup against a floundering Angels’ lineup on the heels of one of his worst outings of the season in which he gave up five runs over five innings last Saturday against the White Sox. It’s not hyperbolic to suggest that Los Angeles’ lineup is the worst in baseball at the moment with a .684 OPS over the last 30 days, which ranks fifth worst in baseball during that span.
Framber Valdez has been phenomenal of late for the Astros and finds himself squaring off against a Kansas City lineup that ranks 22nd in baseball this season with a pedestrian .710 OPS against left-handed pitching. The 29-year-old southpaw has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five consecutive starts since August 25 and allowed just one run (zero earned) over seven frames his last time out against the Royals in Kansas City on September 17.
Shane Bieber makes his return to Cleveland’s starting rotation following a two-month absence due to right elbow inflammation and shouldn’t have any workload restrictions when he takes the ball on Friday night in a tough spot against the Orioles.
It’s an extremely tough road matchup Friday night against the Astros, who tagged him for five runs over six innings on Saturday in his previous start, but there’s an argument to be made the Cole Ragans has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All-Star break, posting a microscopic 2.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 76/19 K/BB ratio across 59 1/3 innings (10 starts). The 25-year-old southpaw’s stratospheric strikeout upside makes him an interesting option for fantasy managers despite the challenging matchup.
Sneaky Option
Sawyer Gipson-Long, Tigers RHP, vs. Athletics: $7,700
Gipson-Long finds himself in line for an extremely favorable matchup on Friday night when he faces off against the rebuilding Athletics in pitcher-friendly Oakland. The unheralded 25-year-old right-hander has allowed just three runs on six hits with a 16/3 K/BB ratio across 10 innings over a pair of starts since receiving the call to the majors. He may not be a household name, but it’s a phenomenal matchup and he offers enough strikeout potential to be a worthwhile gamble for fantasy managers in this one.
Stack Attack
Braves vs. Nationals (LHP Patrick Corbin)
The best offense in baseball against a pedestrian southpaw is the obvious foundational building block for fantasy managers on Friday evening. There’s no platoon advantage for Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies, but they’ve been so hot of late that it’s difficult to justify leaving them out of the lineup mix.
OF Ronald Acuña Jr.: $6,800
1B Matt Olson: $6,400
2B Ozzie Albies: $5,800
3B Austin Riley: $5,600
OF Marcell Ozuna: $4,600
Yankees vs. Diamondbacks (RHP Brandon Pfaadt)
The combination of hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and homer-prone rookie right-hander Brandon Pfaadt have the potential to lead to some fireworks. Aaron Judge would be the preferred centerpiece, but Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe and DJ LeMahieu also make sense in this matchup.
OF Aaron Judge.: $6,500
2B Gleyber Torres: $4,700
SS Anthony Volpe: $4,000
2B DJ LeMahieu: $3,700
Dodgers vs. Giants (LHP Sean Manaea)
Los Angeles has enough lefty-mashing platoon options to stack their lineup advantageously against the division-rival Giants on Friday evening with a red-hot J.D. Martinez, who has homered four times in his last four games, headlining the stacking options in this one. Fantasy managers should also consider lower-cost options like Enrique Hernández, Chris Taylor and Amed Rosario as well.
Week 3 is here, and we’ve spotted plenty of value plays for the weekend. Every single week, I’ll be placing an Underdog/PrizePicks entry and breaking down each prop with analysis and key stats that will help you make money. And I will be using the Sportstopia DFS Optimizer to guide my research, which you can sign up for here!
Brian Robinson, Commanders RB, o10.5 Rec Yards
Robinson receiving yards was one of my favorite plays last week, and I’m surprised we’re still getting such a reasonable number here. Since the preseason started, Washington offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy has been clear that Robinson needed to catch more passes, simply to make the offense less predictable.
Through the preseason, we saw that start to materialize, with new and more creative usage. Through the first two weeks of the regular season, it’s been even better than expected, with Robinson dominating total RB opportunities.
Robinson is the workhorse back for this team, and even if they fall in a more negative game situation, I expect him to succeed regardless. Last week, Washington struggled early but came back in part due to running the ball with Robinson and working off play-action. He cashed this number last game with 42 yards, and I’m expecting 2-3 catches in this one.
Derrick Henry, Titans RB, o12.5 Rec Yards
I love this number for Henry, especially considering he’s cashed it in back-to-back weeks. Henry was more involved in the screen game last week, and while he doesn’t run a lot of routes, he’s highly efficient on a per-touch basis. Betting on such a low number for one of the best players is fun, because we only need one play to break this.
The logic here is quite simple: the Browns’ defense is really good, and Titans QB Ryan Tannehill must get the ball out fast. Henry is the most explosive player on this offense, and if the traditional run game is having trouble getting going, they are going to find other creative ways to get their star player involved.
The Browns get pressure at the highest rate in football, and Tannehill is traditionally one of the worst QB’s under pressure via success rate. I expect them to struggle early, and Henry will have 2-3 screen opportunities alone.
Zay Flowers, Ravens WR/Marc Andrews, Ravens TE o0.5 TD’s
While the Ravens are traditionally run heavy, OC Todd Monken’s new lead system will open things up and air it out more. We’ve already seen early returns on that, and I expect it to continue against a pass-funnel Colts team.
While their defensive line is strong, the secondary is not. Stephon Gilmore left in the offseason, and their best corner is Kenny Moore. This is not a strong pass defense, and with Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins out, I see more red zone pass attempts.
Flowers had multiple plays schemed up for him in the red zone in Week 2, and Andrews has always been Lamar’s favorite redzone target. I expect them to have 3–4 opportunities here and I like the chances.
Nico Collins, Texans WR, o54.5 Rec Yards
Through two games, Collins has 20 targets with a 14.8 ADOT. He’s recorded 80 and 146 receiving yards in those two matchups, and it looks like he’s on the precipice of a breakout season. He’s posted a 20%+ target share in six straight games, and this new offense with CJ Stroud is more pass-heavy than we initially anticipated.
The Jaguars offense may be good, but their defense hasn’t been strong. This game has sneaky offensive upside, but even in a lower-scoring game, we saw two receivers, Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney, clear 60+ yards. In the first game, we saw Michael Pittman clear this number with 87 yards on 11 targets. I expect WR1’s to continue to have success against the Jaguars.
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