Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love throws a touchdown pass in the second half against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on Sept. 10, 2023. (Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports)
Every Tuesday, I wake up and react to the shift in line movement after a weekend of NFL football. A line can shift for several reasons, sometimes for better or worse. In this series of articles, we look at three games a week and any associated line movement with them.
In Week 2, here are the three games with line movement that I am targeting.
Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) @ Detroit Lions
I went to this game immediately. Colleagues Sean Green and Ryan Kramer from the Sports Gambling Podcast put me on to a betting trend I have blindly tailed in almost every situation – the ‘Close Your Eyes Special.’
The Close Your Eyes Special is when a team underperforms the spread by 21+ points and is underdog the next week. Four teams underperformed the spread by 21+ points -- the Cincinnati Bengals, the New York Giants, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Seattle Seahawks. Only the Steelers and the Seahawks are underdogs this week, but let’s focus on the Seahawks.
The Detroit Lions got a three-point line move after Week 1from -2.5 to -5.5. The thought process behind the Close Your Eyes Special is that team that just got destroyed the week before is vastly underrated the next week. During the 2022 season the Close Your Eyes Special went 6-3 ATS with five outright wins.
The Lions had a few lapses in coverage but were fortunate with several drops by the Kansas City Chiefs. Seattle’s offense was dynamic last year, and they added one of the top receivers in the draft in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Last season, the Seahawks won this game 48-45. Expect Seattle keep it close again.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
The Packers surprised some in Week 1. Jordan Love passed for three touchdowns with help from running back Aaron Jones and wide receiver Romeo Doubs. This week’s line completely flipped from Falcons -1.5 to Packers -1.5. And I’m not sure it is enough.
The Packers are better, but the books are slow to keep up. This team has a great defense and Love showed he can steer the offense in the right direction. While the Falcons did get a divisional win last week, the benefited more from the rookie struggles of Bryce Young than their own merit. Desmond Ridder still is developing as a passer and unfortunately, he did not have Aaron Rodgers to sit behind. I like Coach LaFleur to outcoach Coach Smith in Love’s first road start.
New York Jets (+9.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
I could not in good faith leave this line out. Prior to Monday night, the Cowboys were three-point favorites. By the fourth quarter, with Rodgers out with an Achilles tear, the ‘Boys were at -7.5. And a day after the Jets’ miraculous punt return in overtime, the line is Cowboys -9.5.
The Jets are back to where they were last year with Zach Wilson running things, but Wilson does not quarterback the defense. That honor goes to C.J. Mosley, and his D forced four turnovers and gave up 16 points. Sauce Gardner and the defense had already broken out last season and have solidified themselves as one of the best in the league.
The Cowboys annihilated the New York Giants on Sunday night. Their defensive line wreaked havoc all night and gave the Giants offensive line all they could handle. While I do expect much of the same from them on defense, I expect the Cowboys to struggle to find ways to move the ball versus the Jets defense.
I’m very interested in seeing a Dak Prescott interception player prop price. The Jets will struggle on offense, but the Cowboys will as well. I think the Jets cover the +9.5 and I would seriously consider a look towards the under.
We have a full slate of games scheduled for Sunday across MLB, there will be a handful of inexperienced starting pitchers taking the mound, and some big-time smash spots for some of the best lineups in baseball. I’ll dive into the foundational building blocks you need to construct your lineups around.
Weather Report
There are clear skies expected for every game.
Injury Report
Ronald Acuna Jr – Calf: Acuna left Friday’s game early due to calf tightness and missed Saturday’s game. It’s uncertain if he will be back in the lineup.
Ryan Mountcastle – Shoulder: Mountcastle has missed the last three games and there is no update on whether we will play.
Triston Casas – Shoulder: Casas was placed on the 10-day IL.
Shohei Ohtani – Oblique: The superstar was placed on the 10-day IL and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
David Peralta – Back: Peralta sat out Friday’s game and it’s unknown if his back tightness will keep him out.
Bryan De La Cruz – Ankle: He exited Friday’s game early, sat on Saturday, and it’s unknown if he will be in Sunday’s lineup.
Manny Machado – Elbow: Manny did not play Saturday and is questionable for Sunday.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Brandon Woodruff vs. WAS: $10,800
Framber Valdez @ KC: $9,900
Charlie Morton @ MIA: $9,500
Sonny Gray @ CWS: $9,300
Jesus Luzardo vs. ATL: $8,900
Dylan Cease vs. MIN: $8,600
Woodruff appears worth paying the premium for. Since returning from the IL in August, he's allowed two earned runs or less in six of seven outings and hasn't allowed a run in his past two games. In four starts at home, he has a 1.07 ERA over 25.1 innings pitched! The Contrarian Edge Optimizer suggests paying up for Woodruff.
The Braves' Morton looks like a good option on paper but avoid him. In two starts versus Miami he has allowed one ER on seven hits over 12.2 innings, but he has struggled in day games with a 4.35 ERA compared to 3.09 ERA at night. He has also struggled in his two starts in September, and Miami has the fourth-highest batting average in MLB at .270 at home.
Sneaky Option
Dylan Cease vs. MIN: $8,600
There are not many “sneaky” options. There’s a handful of openers so it’s difficult to rely on some of the cheaper choices. Instead, we’re going to turn to Cease and hope he brings his strikeout stuff and better command.
The one holdup I have is that the Twins own the fifth-highest walk rate in MLB. The good part is they have the highest strikeout rate per game. Cease has been better at home this season and he should give us some length. This one is scary to trust but we’re riding with the mustache man.
Stack Attack
Brewers vs. Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
What a shock! We’re looking to stack against Corbin. The Contrarian Edge Optimizer suggests getting Brewers bats in your lineups. Expect a poor outing against a Milwaukee lineup that is in the top 10 in runs scored and has the sixth highest batting average in September.
The Brewers lineup projects nicely despite occasional struggles against lefties. The Nats' bullpen owns the fourth-worst ERA, so if they chase Corbin early, they could continue producing.
1B Carlos Santana $3,800
2B Andruw Monasterio $3,000
C William Contreras $5,100
SS Willy Adames $4,400
OF Mark Canha $3,000
OF Joey Weimer $2,600
Astros vs. Royals (Jordan Lyles)
This is what dreams are made of. Lyles and Corbin pitching on the same day! Unfortunately for Lyles, he faces a deep Astros lineup, and has an 8.78 ERA over 11 starts in day games. Jose Altuve has two homers in 14 at-bats off Lyle. Of course, it’s always worth getting Yordan Alvarez in your lineup if you can. He’s 3 for 8 in this series with 2 doubles and has a strong history of success at Kauffman Stadium.
On Sunday Night Football, we cap off the NFL’s second weekend with an AFC East battle -- Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins at Foxborough to take on Mac Jones and the New England Patriots.
Game
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins, 8:20 pm ET
Odds (DraftKings)
Line: Patriots +3, Dolphins -3
Moneyline: Patriots (+124), Dolphins (-148)
Over/Under: 46.5
Team Ranks (2023)
Patriots
Points for: 20.0 (16th)
Points Allowed: 25.0 (23rd)
Dolphins
Points For: 36.0 (3rd)
Points Allowed: 34.0 (29th)
Key Injuries to Watch
Patriots
OT Trent Brown (Concussion) – Questionable
G Sidy Sow, (Concussion)- Questionable
CB Jonathan Jones (Ankle)- Questionable
Dolphins
OT Terron Armstead (Back, Ankle, Knee) – Questionable
LB Jaelan Phillips (Back) – Questionable
Armstead is probably the most important injury. Plenty of reports out of Miami’s practice this week are pointing toward him making his season debut. Even without Armstead blocking in Week 1, Tua posted a career-best .60 EPA per dropback.
A major surprise on the injury report is corner Jonathan Jones. He was likely going to be tasked with covering Tyreek Hill, but the missed Friday’s practice with an ankle injury that he may have picked up during the week. New England’s secondary will be in trouble if Jones can’t go.
Captain Prices (DraftKings)
Tyreek Hill, WR $18,900
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, $16,800
Jaylen Waddle, WR, $15,300
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, $14,100
Mac Jones, QB, $13,500
Raheem Mostert, RB, $12,000
Kendrick Bourne, WR, $10,800
Flex Prices (DraftKings)
Tyreek Hill, WR $12,600
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, $11,200
Jaylen Waddle, WR, $10,200
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, $9,400
Mac Jones, QB, $9,000
Raheem Mostert, RB, $8,000
Kendrick Bourne, WR, $7,200
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Tyreek Hill is projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate over at DraftKings, projected to appear in over 28 percent of lineups. The highest-owned projected player for the Flex spot is Mac Jones.
Surprisingly, the Optimizer is projecting Ezekiel Elliott to appear in just over 1 percent of lineups!
I’m not sure this qualifies as a “sneaky” choice, but Rhamondre in your Captain slot could pay dividends. Miami’s defense was torched by Chargers running backs in Week 1 to the tune of 255 total yards and two touchdowns.
I’m not convinced we should worry about Zeke Elliott, as Stevenson played 74 percent of snaps in Week 1 compared to Elliot’s 26 percent, and Zeke fumbled.
Since the start of last season, Miami’s defense is bottom six in catches, yards, and receiving scores allowed to opposing running backs. This is noteworthy because Stevenson accumulated 6 catches on 6 targets in Week 1. We can trust his usage to be elite Sunday night.
Hunter Henry, Patriots TE, $5,600
Under new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, Mac Jones had his first career 300-plus passing yard game with three touchdowns. He attempted a career-high 52 passes in Week 1. Last season, the Dolphins allowed the third most receptions and touchdowns to opposing tight ends.
Hunter Henry saw solid usage in Week 1, catching 5 passes for 56 yards and a touchdown. Miami’s defense picked up right where it left off in 2022 allowing Chargers tight ends to catch 5 passes and a touchdown in Week 1.
Bargain Option
Mike Gesicki, Patriots TE, $2,400
O’Brien runs a tight end-happy offense. Gesicki is in a revenge game spot against his former team that decided he wasn’t worth paying. See Hunter Henry above as to why we should insert at least one of the Patriots tight ends into our lineups Sunday night. Gesicki is a bargain!
Prediction
I’m seeing plenty of people predicting Tua to stay hot here. He’s 4-0 against Bill Belichick’s Patriots. The odds suggest we should expect the offenses to produce and Tua is the current leader in the clubhouse in MVP odds.
I think the Patriots keep this game close, and Miami’s offense will continue to display its firepower. I think we see chunk gains from Rhamondre in the run game as the Patriots aim to control the tempo. Gesicki scores in the red zone on a short seam route over the middle to cap off a huge win early in the season for the Patriots. Miami gets an early wakeup call.
We have a full slate of games scheduled for Saturday across MLB, including a doubleheader between the Rockies and Giants. There’s a handful of aces on the mound that may be worth paying up for, headlined by Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow, but they have tough road matchups.
I’ll dive into the foundational building blocks you need to construct your lineups around. Additionally, I’ll explain why there’s a smash spot in the first game of that doubleheader out West.
Weather Report
There are clear skies expected for every game, something we should be grateful for with just three weekends left of the regular season!
Injury Report
Ronald Acuna Jr – Calf: Acuna left Friday’s game early due to calf tightness and it has yet to be determined if we will miss Saturday’s game.
Ryan Mountcastle – Shoulder: Mountcastle has missed the last two games and there is no update on whether we will play on Saturday.
Triston Casas – Shoulder: Casas missed Friday’s game, and is yet to be determined if we will be in the lineup on Saturday.
David Peralta – Back: Peralta sat out Friday’s game and it’s unknown if his back tightness will keep him out of Saturday’s tilt with Seattle.
Bryan De La Cruz – Ankle: He exited Friday’s game early and may sit on Saturday.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Tyler Glasnow @ BAL: $10,800
Pablo Lopez @ CWS: $10,500
Corbin Burnes vs. WAS: $10,300
Clayton Kershaw @ SEA: $10,000
Andrew Abbott @ NYM: $9,500
Cole Ragans vs. HOU: $8,500
There is a handful of starting pitchers at the top end of the rotation. Glasnow is the one name that jumps off the board as the top-priced starting pitcher. He’s averaging 23.1 points per game, which is outstanding.
We’re avoiding him mainly because of his home/road splits. He has a 3.48 road ERA, as opposed to 2.81 at Tropicana. In two starts versus Baltimore this season, he’s gone 11.1 innings, allowed 12 hits, and eight earned runs. Those are his worst numbers against any opponent this season.
Of the aces today, Corbin Burnes is the one worth inserting into your lineups. When using the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, he appears the most often of any pitcher on today’s slate. He’s coming off eight no-hit innings against a hot Yankees lineup and faces a Nationals team against whom he allowed four hits on six innings on the road in July.
Sneaky Option
Tanner Bibee vs. LAA: $9,300 (FanDuel)
Somehow, Cleveland continues to find amazing starting pitchers. Bibee has been the king of consistency, allowing 3 ER or less in 15 straight starts with a 2.50 ERA to lower his ERA to 3.03. On Saturday, he faces a Rangers lineup that has been in the bottom half in most offensive categories over the last month. With bigger names like Kershaw, Burnes, and Glasnow near the top of the board, expect the ownership rate to be somewhat low compared to other arms on Saturday.
Stack Attack
Giants vs. Rockies (Peter Lambert)
Like many pitchers, Lambert struggles at Coors Field. He owns a 6.44 ERA at home, and in two appearances against the Giants this season, he’s gone 6.1 innings, allowing 9 runs and 11 hits! There’s not an obvious choice in the Giants lineup but LaMonte Wade, Thairo Estrada, and Mike Yastrzemski are a few names the Contrarian Edge Optimizer suggests often in today’s lineups.
OF Joc Pederson $4,800
OF Mike Yastrzemski $4,400
1B Thairo Estrada $5,000
1B/OF LaMonte Wade $4,000
Brewers vs. Nationals (Trevor Williams)
Williams was terrible in his last two outings. He is becoming a true get-right spot for any lineup he faces. In six of his last eight starts, he has allowed at least six hits and four runs. Since the start of September, Milwaukee is tied with the seventh most runs scored and the eighth highest batting average. The Brewers lineup projects nicely on Saturday. The Nats bullpen owns the fourth-worst ERA. I would get as many Dodgers in your lineups as you can.
1B Rowdy Tellez $2,600
1B Carlos Santana $3,800
C William Contreras $5,100
SS Willy Adames $4,400
OF Mark Canha $3,000
Marlins vs. Braves (Jared Shuster)
This stack looks incredible on paper. The Marlins own the second-highest batting average against left-handed pitching at .282. When at home, they have the fourth-highest batting average in MLB at .270. The lefty Shuster has not pitched since August 27 so we can’t say for certain how many innings he will go before the Braves look to their bullpen. Shuster has yet to face any Marlins hitter, but his ERA is inflated o the road at 6.56!
Anthony Richardson/Mike Williams/Tee Higgins +1588 Caesars
Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson was one of my favorite targets to score a touchdown this week, and I’m surprised we’re getting him at +190 considering the rookie hype. This guy is an insane athlete: 6’4, 250, with 4.4 40-yard dash and insane advanced metrics.
Even if you don’t believe in his ability as a passer, he is the clear goal line back in this offense. Guys like Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are regularly priced at -110, despite having a plethora of options around them, I promise you Richardson will find himself in that range sooner rather than later.
One of my favorite parts about this prop is the complete and utter lack of goal-line competition. Since they decided not to pay their best offense offensive player, the Colts had one of the least efficient ground games of the week, led by Deon Jackson.
In that game, Richardson scored his first NFL touchdown, with an impressive four redzone carries. You really don’t see that kind of volume in a rookie’s first game, and I expect it to continue given the Colts lack of secondary options.
Mike Williams is another one of my favorite touchdown targets. I loved how involved he was early in the Chargers game, even converting on two screen passes despite his usual deep ball usage (which he came through on later as well).
Playing against the famous Fangio cover-2 isn’t great for a player like Williams, but now he gets the Titans who allowed the most receiving yards and explosive plays to wide receivers last year. That looked to stay pretty consistent in last week’s disaster of a football game.
He has the same alpha quality that I talked about in a guy like AJ Brown/DK Metcalf, where they can catch those 50/50 balls at such a high rate AND they are targets both inside and outside the redzone.
Williams appears healthy and good to go, I think we are getting value on this line! While I’m not depending on it; Ekeler being limited or injured could also really help this play given his redzone prowess.
*This parlay will have better odds when FD posts Williams’ touchdown number, I tried waiting for it to become available but nothing yet!
Finally, I’ll be talking about a wide receiver who laid a fat goose egg this week, Bengals receiver Tee Higgins. Despite the bad numbers on paper, he still did finish the week top 5 in air yards, just missing on a couple completions thanks to a terrible outing from franchise QB Joe Burrow.
This is simply a bet on the offense turning it around, especially against a Ravens team that lost their starting safety last week. I’m expecting a bounce back from Burrow, and Higgins possesses the same dominant redzone abilities that I’m always looking for.
I’ll take one of the best contested catch receivers in the league, in a game that should have some sneaky offense.
Kadarius Toney TD +330
After defending him all week, it’s time to put my money where my mouth is and get some Kadarius Toney action in! While Travis Kelce is the clear pick in the Chiefs’ offense, I think Toney really benefits from having that elite weapon back in the lineup.
Toney has never had amazing hands, but you do have to be getting consistently open to be able to make that many drops. I have feeling we see him bounce back strong this week.
One thing I love about Andy Reid is his redzone creativity, and a gadget player like Toney can give defenses lots of problems. He’s one of the few WR’s that I really wouldn’t be surprised to see score a rushing touchdown; and I think his versatility gives him some value here.
Toney is a risky play, so I’m avoiding him for parlays, but I think this number presents some value in a game with plenty of shootout potential.
Jets D/ST +1100
While I think the other side of this is going to be much more popular, I think there is value on both sides. Two of the best defenses squaring off head-to-head, including a Jets side coming off a three in creation game.
Dak Prescott led the league in interceptions last season, and we haven’t seen him tested in a competitive game this year. If the Jets win, they need to overperform on special teams and defense, and I think this Longshot is worth a sprinkle!
I watched this game live and took my usual live game scouting notes ... and like a restaurant or movie ‘critic’, I’m here to report my critiques -- pro and con.
My name is R.C. Fischer, and I am a decade-plus-long football scout and Fantasy writer/player (and bettor) of football things, and I watch football games for a living. I am a fan of no NFL team, except the one that I may have bet on that particular game. I review/study game tape for personal profit (or loss) in DFS and handicapping/props.
Let’s take a look at what I witnessed in this first of my Friday series on Sportstopia critiquing the ‘Best and the Worst’ of the Thursday Night Football game.
Quick BEST: TNF is back on Amazon! (NBC had it last week for some reason)
I watch/scout every regular season NFL game twice, live and during the week watching/studying the tape and the same for all the preseason games. And by far the best presentation of the football product is by Amazon.
Their pregame panel is far superior to any pregame panel in football right now.
I don’t like most TV analysts, but I really enjoy the understated, solid analysis of Kirk Herbstreit, as compared to NBC’s Cris Collinsworth laughing about everything every other play for no reason. And Fox’s Troy Aikman constantly claiming he ‘really likes’ and/or ‘has always liked’ and/or ‘this guy is going to have a big season’ on every player who just had a positive play in the game moments before. Al Michaels is a welcome Amazon game call sidekick as well.
The Next Gen viewing option by Amazon is excellent and the X-Ray Stats option for the right-hand side of your screen for real time Passing-Rushing-Receiving totals is a dream come true.
We need Amazon, Apple, and Google to buy everything related to the NFL and bring it into the modern era.
WORST: Are any Vikings offensive linemen healthy?
I wanted to bet small, for fun, on the Vikings and the points in this game but I was trying to figure out all day whether top OT Christian Darrisaw was going To play/be OK or not. Minnesota already was down their key starting center going into this. When Darrisaw was not listed inactive at the deadline for reporting, I went in on MIN +6.5 to join up with my earlier in the week bets on Minnesota +7.0.
Once I placed my bet, 30 seconds later after the bet was processed, one of my guys on the ground at the game texted me that Darrisaw is still being worked out pregame and he’s a true game-time decision … and next I saw him was on the sidelines with no helmet on during the game. I thought my Vikings bet was a donation at that point.
In-game, when a Vikings starting offensive guard was taken off in a cart midgame, I knew I was doomed (as bettors like to wallow at the first sign of trouble) versus the Philly defensive front the rest of the game (thankfully, I was wrong).
The Vikings are now (0-2), and really should’ve won both of these games, but now they go into Week 3 with possibly 60% of their starting O-Line out...not good.
BEST: Do You Respect Kirk Cousins Yet?
Despite being down three offensive line starters, key ones too, Kirk Cousins threw for 364 yards, 4 TDs/0 INTs, and nearly led a comeback win despite four lost fumbles from his crew this game.
People discount Cousins because the media has told us over and over how mediocre (or worse) he is, but the guy is right in that tier of QBs below the ‘elite’ but above the ‘middle class’. He gets disrespected in Fantasy Football because of the media bias against him, but typically finds a way to be a top 10-12 Fantasy producer in any given season.
Cousins might end this week as the #1 QB in all of Fantasy after the first two weeks. He has thrown for back-to-back 340+ yard games and has 6 TD passes this season-to-date. And, again, this big output game came with 60% of his O-Line gone.
BEST: Are Any Eagles Healthy in the Secondary?
The Eagles came into this game without starting CB James Bradberry and top Safety Reed Blankenship, which helped Cousins go off...but then the Eagles also lost the very good slot CB Avonte Maddox in-game as well. Cousins is really good as it is, but he got a boost from the wounded secondary of Philly.
On the FSL podcast we shot/published earlier Thursday analyzing this game/DFS options and strategies, we discussed the impact of the wounded Eagles secondary and how that PLUS the Minnesota corrupted O-Line would force the Vikings away from the run and into a heavy passing effort -- we get a self-congratulating ‘best’ for calling this game script and subsequent huge Vikings pass game output for profitable Fantasy/DFS plays.
WORST: The Alexander Mattison Experience
It was easy to predict that Minnesota would be pushed away from any type of run game to the passing game due to the Philly D-Line strength and Vikings O-Line injuries, but also in part because Alexander Mattison is one of the worst starting RBs in the NFL right now. Super slow. Lost one fumble officially, lost another in the game that got bailed out by a lined-up-offsides penalty by the defense.
He later dropped a key pass in the hurry up offense comeback attempt...and during the 4th-quarter hurry ups he kept trying to get an extra yard by staying inbounds, when time was of the essence and he was right near the sidelines to ditch out and stop the clock, which was a must...but he didn’t seem to realize it, over and over.
Of all the things that cost Minnesota a win (a win they should have gotten) -- it was Mattison.
Minnesota did this to themselves when they paid Mattison to be ‘the guy’ this offseason. They have egg on their faces and likely won’t change/admit the error for a while, instead they’ll lean more into Mattison ahead to prove a point/save face. Whatever they do...he just cost them a win here, potentially.
BEST: D’Andre Swift Rises!
Last week, Swift played 19 snaps and had 1 carry and 1 catch. This week, 28 carries for 175 yards and 1 TD, and is now ‘the greatest running back in the history of the sport’,' which is what happens/the reaction when the media gets to watch a solo night game to get hysterical about.
I’m not a huge Swift fan (as a scout), but we talked about him on the DFS pregame TNF podcast, and I noted that he looked the best of the Eagles RBs in the preseason, so I assumed he would split with Boston Scott and whichever one of them got hot would take the backfield.
Scott looked good too, but got concussed, then Swift pulled away with the victory and was in many of our FSL DFS lineups for the TNF game over the more nationally coveted Mattison. That worked well.
WORST: Why Did the Eagles Start Kenneth Gainwell Week 1 Anyway?
As we were talking on the TNF preview podcast about the Eagles RB situation for TNF, I noted the positives about Swift from the preseason -- but I also mentioned how bad Gainwell looked in Week 1 and I questioned why Philly would start Gainwell so heavy and not bother to utilize some Swift and Scott (or Penny).
Well, it looks like Gainwell’s bell cow days are numbered, deservedly so. He’s not a three-down back, he’s a nice part of an RBBC.
WORST: With The #12 pick in the NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions Select Jahmyr Gibbs (insert applause)
So, let me understand this. You (the Lions) essentially give away Swift for nothing to the Eagles, a deal that was essentially a step above cutting him. OK, fine, but ...
Then you (the Lions) turn around and waste a precious #12 pick on another small/mid-sized, speedy satellite running back? Gibbs might never have an NFL game with as many yards as Swift just had here. You would hope and pray Gibbs would have a night like Swift just had, so why not just keep Swift and not waste a #12 pick on a similar thing when you could’ve drafted Christian Gonzalez, when you desperately needed CB help?
A huge, bad business decision by Detroit.
I know, I know. Gibbs is just starting out and we don’t know how good he is. He’s a magical unicorn rookie filled with sugar plum fairies dancing in football fans’ heads.
I know, Gibbs is so fast and is great in the passing game and is a playmaker. Where have I heard that before said about a player? Oh, yeah, I remember now. It was back a couple years ago from the media and fans when Detroit took D’Andre Swift to be that guy.
BEST: Minnesota’s Defensive Pass Rush
I was surprised by how well the Vikings defense pressured the Eagles pass game. They sacked Hurts 4 times this game and really had the Eagles pass game stymied for a while.
BEST/WORST: Minnesota’s Pressure Runs Out of Gas/the 2022 season Jalen Hurts Arrives...
In the 1st-half, I thought Hurts looked lost...playing at half speed and not in sync in the passing game. Which was an extension of looking off Week 1 against New England. At halftime of this game, I started to wonder if Hurts was going to be in for a down season or wondered if he was hurt in some way.
But then you could see as this game went, Hurts started getting in sync and throwing passes with more command. It took about six quarters of play to start the season for Hurts to shake the rust and to get into his NFL flow. Hopefully the same will be true for all the other big name QB flops from Week 1 that were flops likely due to these non-play/no touch of the QB preseason events they have to deal with.
I set myself a reminder, dated for summer 2024, to remind myself that Week 1 of NFL play is now a discombobulated mess and to assume the worst and bet all the underdogs because most teams are no longer prepared for the real games to begin. It will take 2-3 weeks for things to get up to speed for many offenses.
I did an analysis (on my home site Fantasy Football Metrics.com) of the change in Fantasy scoring by position from Week 1 of 2021 to a drop-off in Week 1 of 2022 to another (historic) drop in Week 1 of 2023. Everything is falling in Week 1s...except the DST scoring is rising, which makes sense given the drop everywhere else...especially at QB.
BEST: Betting This Game, In-Game, in Real Time with the Vikings + points...
So, when the Vikings went down 20-7 right after halftime, off that sack/fumble setting up a quick/easy Philly score -- I jumped on the in-game odds moving on DraftKings/FanDuel where the Vikings popped up to +14.5. With the Philly secondary injuries, and the way the Vikings were able to move the ball all game (just kept fumbling it away), I thought the Vikings were a ‘hope’ to make this a shootout and get the cover.
They did...that’s always a ‘best’.
WORST: Betting This Game, In-Game, in Real Time with the Vikings Straight Up to Comeback and Win
And at the same time I took the +14.5 and I also plunked one cool dollar on the moneyline for Minnesota to straight up win at +1,000 odds (while down 20-7 at that point).
When it got to 27-7, I thought all these in-game bets were quick donations -- but not-too-soon-after I was suddenly on the edge of my seat with some hope of a great +1,000 comeback by the Vikings. But it was not to be, almost but no dice, thus a ‘worst’.
BEST: The Backdoor Cover Rules!
Pregame, as mentioned previously, I had small bets on Minnesota at +7.0 earlier in the week and +6.5 just prior. I thought that was a donation too in the 3rd-quarter, but Minnesota scored a late TD on a drive that nearly gave me a heart attack due to drops, near-miss interceptions, a fumble/turnover saved by a defensive offsides penalty, etc. I was on the edge of my seat on every play -- you gotta love Fantasy and sports betting! Where else can you get such entertainment week-to-week?
Minnesota lost by 6, so I got my game bets covered -- barely. if only the Vikes coulda won and hooked me up with a nice present to start out my Week 2 betting.
That’s it for the Best and Worst of TNF Week 2. I’ll be analyzing the game, and every NFL game, from a purely Fantasy/Dynasty perspective over at Fantasy Football Metrics.com. daily.
A big shoutout to Matthew Stafford and Michael Pittman for proving me wrong in last week’s ‘Fades’ article. The goal this week? To ensure that everybody I list down below proves me right (just kidding, I’m always rooting for the players, but the fantasy world makes things tricky so sometimes it looks like you’re straddling the fence).
Without further ado, here are my biggest fades (at cost) at every position entering Week 2 (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel).
QB: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys ($7,400, QB10 at cost)
Nothing against Mr. Prescott, but if Josh Allen is going to turn the ball over four times (along with a pedestrian QB rating of 62.7) and single handedly cost his team a football game against the New York Jets in Week 1, how do you think the 2022 league leader in interceptions is going to fare against a defense that’s looking like one of the best, if not the BEST unit in all of football?
While Prescott hasn’t always been a turnover prone QB throughout his career, this Jets defense is no joke and could very realistically have Prescott looking like he’s seeing ghosts ala Sam Darnold.
Not only that, but Prescott could also be without a weapon in Brandin Cooks, who is dealing with a sprained MCL. Considering his price tag as the 10th-most expensive QB in DFS, there are plenty of QB’s you should consider inserting into your lineups at a much cheaper price who have matchups not nearly as daunting as Dakota’s.
RB: Dalvin Cook, New York Jets ($6,800, RB14 at cost)
One could argue that the Cowboys’ biggest weakness on defense last season was their subpar ability as a unit to stop the run. We’re only through Week 1 so it’s early, but the Cowboys only gave up 65 yards rushing to Giants RBs (on 15 total carries) to open the season, which doesn’t bode well for Dalvin Cook.
You know what else doesn’t bode well for Cook’s fantasy prospects? The presence of Breece Hall as his backfield mate. Having only finished with three more carries than his counterpart in the backfield, it is expected that Hall will play more of the snaps after having exploded for 127 on just 10 totes. Oh, and Hall’s surgically repaired knee is only going to get better as the week progresses.
Another factor hurting Cook’s fantasy value? The uncertainty revolving around his QB. Given that the Cowboys are almost SURELY going to load up the box to stop the run, running room could come at a premium.
Sure, Cook is likely to be used more out of the backfield, but if Zach Wilson can’t improve upon what he’s shown throughout his career, he’s going to hold everyone back alongside him on the offensive side of the ball.
WR: Garrett Wilson, New York Jets ($7,400, WR10 at cost)
I promise I don’t hate the New York Jets’ skill position players, but I do hate the matchup this week: Dallas. About as brutal as it gets! (the New York Giants will tell you all about it)
Like I mentioned above with Dalvin Cook, everything about the Jets offense has lost its luster since Aaron Rodgers went down with a torn Achilles and that includes entering-the-season fantasy darling and reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson. Stephon Gilmore.
Trevon Diggs. Zach Wilson. Those are the only three names/reasons you need to fade Wilson this week. A top-10 option at his position playing for an offense that will struggle to score points all season long at $7,400??? No thank you.
TE: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons ($5,600, TE6 at cost)
So, you’re telling me the Atlanta Falcons drafted elite pass catching prospects top 10 in back-to-back years only to have them RUN BLOCK OVER 50% OF THE TIME? My goodness, what are we doing here? Wouldn't you have been better off drafting offensive linemen or trading up for a QB?
While Pitts fared a little better than Drake London, two catches for 44 yards isn’t nearly enough when factoring in his price point. Until the Falcons show more competence and a willingness to involve their prized possessions at pass catcher, I’m staying away from both Pitts and London, despite the massive upside and talent they possess.
FLEX: WR Drake London, Atlanta Falcons ($5,800, WR38 at cost)
If you do the math, 80% of this article is made up of either Falcons or Jets, so shout out to those organizations for their help in contributing to this article.
Jokes aside, the same logic I used for Pitts applies to London. Not only is Atlanta allergic to passing the football, the jury is still out on QB Desmond Ridder. When he does pass the football, the RB’s are the primary targets.
Not to mention, do-it-all weapon Cordarrelle Patterson is expected to make his season debut, clouding the value of both London and Pitts even further.
And one more thing, Jaire Alexander is on the other side of the football waiting anxiously to make things hard for the second-year pro out of USC. I’m avoiding London in ALL FORMATS of fantasy this week.
There is a beautiful schedule of MLB games to kick off our weekend. One pits two of the hottest teams since the All-Star break -- the Mariners and Dodgers. And the Rays and Orioles will continue to battle for AL East crown tonight.
There are plenty of options on PrizePicks and Underdog Friday, but I’ve narrowed it down to the best ones here.
Cole is the heavy favorite in the AL Cy Young race. Tonight, he will pitch in PNC Park for the first time since he left the Pirates in 2017! The emotions will be flowing for Cole, who has just three or four more starts left this season.
Expect him to be on his A-game down the stretch. He’s allowed two earned runsor fewer in nine of 11 starts since the All-Star break. Pittsburgh is bottom 10 in almost every major offensive category.
Mike Yastrzemski, Giants OF, 1.5 Total Bases (Higher) – Underdog
I’m going right back to two picks that were originally for Thursday’s rained out game in Colorado. Yastrzemski has been on fire in September. He has the 10th-highest average in baseball at .387. He has solid numbers against Rockies starting pitcher Chase Anderson, going 3 for 7 with 2 doubles.
Oddly enough, he’s yet to record a hit at Coors Field in his young career but I expect that to change tonight. Anderson has allowed an opponent batting average of .310 since joining the Rockies back in May.
The second play coming from Colorado is simple. Webb has been excellent. He has at least five strikeouts in 22 of 30 starts, and the Rockies have the third most Ks of any team since the All-Star break.
Webb has shut down this Rockies lineup throwing 20.1 innings with 17 K’s and to the tune of a 1.77 ERA. We can trust Webb.
Yordan Alvarez, Astros OF, 1.5 Total Bases (More) – PrizePicks
Yordan is a beast. He doesn’t get enough credit for how good he really is at the plate. On Friday, he goes up against Zack Greinke, who’s having a bad year by his standards.
My favorite part about this play is Yordan’s history hitting at Kauffman Stadium. He has a career .414 batting average there with five extra base hits.
The only place he’s hit better at -- with at least 10 at-bats -- is Fenway (.455). The big lefty is 1 for 3 in his career versus Grienke. He’s top 20 in total bases over the last month.
George Kirby, Mariners RHP, 2.5 Earned Runs (More) – PrizePicks
I’m a fan of Kirby but I believe the Dodgers will quietly dominate this series. Kirby is a strike thrower. The Dodgers bats won’t miss many pitches in the zone. The Dodgers have been a run-scoring machine all season, particularly since the All Star break -- third in .OPS and fourth in runs scored.
Kirby doesn’t have a short leash, so I expect the Dodgers to get at least three runs across the board here for us. Kirby has allowed 3 ER or more in four straight outings.
Hoerner has been one of my favorite picks all season. He’s all the way up to 16th in batting average (.285) and inside the top 10 in strikeout percentage. He is eighth in MLB in strikeout percentage at just 12.7% this season!
He will face Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, who has the ninth lowest strikeout percentage over the last month. When the Diamondbacks go to the bullpen, we shouldn’t be scared as they are 19th in strikeouts per nine innings.
It’s a fully loaded 15-game slate Friday with southpaw’s Justin Steele and Tarik Skubal headlining the most intriguing foundational building blocks from a pitching standpoint.
Additionally, there are several stacking opportunities in the NL West, including tasty matchups in both Arizona and Colorado, to consider constructing the core of lineups around.
Weather Report
There are zero trouble spots on the radar, a relief for fantasy managers who have dealt with several rainouts this week, including a costly one Thursday that washed out a hitter-friendly contest at Coors Field in Colorado.
Injury Report
Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles 1B (shoulder)
Mountcastle is day-to-day after an MRI came back clean following his removal from Wednesday’s game against the Cardinals with left shoulder discomfort.
Shohei Ohtani, Angels DH (oblique)
There’s zero incentive for the Angels to take any chances at this juncture of the season, which has led to Ohtani missing 10 consecutive games with right oblique tightness. It’s difficult to forecast whether he’ll return for Friday’s series opener against the Tigers.
Moniak has missed seven straight games after being scratched from last Thursday’s lineup due to back tightness. He’s theoretically day-to-day but is hardly a lock to return for Friday’s series opener against the Tigers.
Jarred Kelenic, Mariners OF (foot)
Kelenic sat out Wednesday’s game for precautionary reasons due to right foot soreness, but there’s a strong possibility he’ll be ready for Friday’s tilt against the Dodgers in Los Angeles.
Mitch Garver, Rangers C (foot)
Garver is day-to-day with a left foot contusion after X-rays came back negative following his removal from Thursday's game against the Blue Jays.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Marlins OF (knee)
There isn’t a ton of clarity here after Chisholm Jr. was removed from Wednesday's game against the Brewers with right knee discomfort. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day entering Friday’s series opener against the division-rival Braves.
Christian Yelich, Brewers OF (back)
Yelich is expected to return for Friday’s series opener against the Nationals after missing six straight contests due to lower back soreness.
Mark Canha, Brewers OF (wrist)
Canha is day-to-day with left wrist soreness after an MRI on Thursday came back clean for any structural damage.
Ronny Mauricio, Mets SS (illness)
Mauricio remained absent from the Mets’ lineup for the second consecutive contest on Thursday afternoon due to illness. He was available off the bench, so it stands to reason that he’ll be cleared to return for Friday’s series opener against the Reds.
Brett Baty, 3B Mets (groin)
Baty underwent an MRI on Thursday that revealed a mild left groin strain and should be considered day-to-day for now.
Willson Contreras, Cardinals C (hand)
Contreras has been absent from the Cardinals’ lineup since being lifted from Tuesday’s game with a right-hand contusion.
Michael Conforto, Giants OF (hamstring)
Conforto is expected to be activated from the injured list for Friday’s series opener against the Rockies at Coors Field following a three-week absence due to a left hamstring strain.
Xander Bogaerts, Padres SS (calf)
Bogaerts sat out Wednesday’s game against the Dodgers with calf tightness after fouling a ball off his ankle on Tuesday night, which led to some bruising and lingering tightness in his calf. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day for now.
Manny Machado, Padres 3B (elbow)
Machado continues to deal with tennis elbow, which has limited him to designated hitter duty the last few weeks.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs. STL: $10,400
Justin Steele (CHC) vs. AZ: $10,100
George Kirby (SEA) vs. LAD: $9,500
Zach Eflin (TB) vs. BAL: $9,300
Hunter Greene (CIN) vs. NYM: $9,100
Tarik Skubal (DET) vs. LAA: $9,000
José Berríos (TOR) vs. BOS: $8,800
Seth Lugo (SD) vs. OAK: $8,600
Logan Webb (SF) vs. COL: $8,600
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs. CWS: $8,500
There aren’t a ton of high-profile starting pitchers Friday, which make NL Cy Young Award candidate Justin Steele the obvious foundational building block for building a lineup. The 28-year-old left-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 25 of his 27 starts this season, recording a 2.49 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 159/33 K/BB ratio across 159 innings of work.
He’s been on a roll, managing at least six strikeouts in 10 of his 11 outings since the All-Star break. He’s in line for a tasty road matchup Friday evening against a Diamondbacks’ lineup that ranks 22nd in baseball this season with a pedestrian .706 OPS against left-handed pitching.
Perhaps the most intriguing option outside of the top-five highest-priced options is Skubal, who not only possesses immense strikeout upside, but is also in line for an extremely favorable matchup against an Angels’ lineup that could potentially still be without superstar Shohei Ohtani.
The 26-year-old southpaw, who has notched at least seven strikeouts in five consecutive starts dating back to August 18, holds a solid 3.47 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 75/13 K/BB ratio across 62 1/3 innings (12 starts) since returning in early July to Detroit’s starting rotation.
Sneaky Option
Sean Newcomb, A’s LHP, vs. Padres: $5,700
Newcomb has quietly emerged as a savvy streaming option, tossing four scoreless frames with five strikeouts last Saturday against a loaded Rangers’ lineup. The A’s acquired the 30-year-old former top pitching prospect last month in an under-the-radar trade with the Giants and has reeled off a microscopic 0.75 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 15/6 K/BB ratio across 12 innings (six appearances, one start).
He’s in line for an extremely favorable matchup Friday night when he squares off against Cleveland’s lineup, which ranks dead last in baseball this season with a .653 OPS against left-handed pitching.
Stack Attack
Twins vs. White Sox (RHP Jesse Scholtens)
Scholtens has allowed five earned runs or more in three of his last five starts and will face off against a red-hot Twins’ lineup in the midst of a playoff chase. It’s a combination of factors that could lead to plenty of runs going up on the board Friday evening.
Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Jorge Polanco are the most obvious choices here, but Alex Kirilloff represents an extremely cheap option, and might be worthy of a look from fantasy managers, as he should be in the lineup to face Scholtens in this one.
3B Royce Lewis: $4,900
2B Jorge Polanco: $4,500
OF Max Kepler: $3,800
2B Edouard Julien: $3,700
1B Alex Kirilloff: $2,800
Astros vs. Royals (RHP Zack Greinke)
In addition to a ghastly 1-15 record, Greinke has struggled to a bloated 5.47 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 84/19 K/BB ratio across 126 2/3 innings (26 appearances, 23 starts) in what will likely be his final season in the majors.
More importantly, he’s coughed up 19 homers during that span and will square off against a loaded Astros’ lineup on Friday night, which has been one of the hottest in baseball since the Midsummer Classic.
The usual core building blocks are all in the mix, but Chas McCormick and Yainer Diaz, who have certainly played like big boys this season, are sneaky options for fantasy managers in this one, assuming manager Dusty Baker writes their names on his lineup card.
2B Jose Altuve: $6,200
OF Yordan Alvarez: $6,100
OF Kyle Tucker: $5,800
3B Alex Bregman: $5,600
OF Chas McCormick: $4,400
C Yainer Diaz: $4,300
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks (RHP Brandon Pfaadt)
Pfaadt has had serious issues keeping the ball in the yard during his first taste of the majors, serving up a staggering 20 round-trippers in just 80 2/3 innings (16 appearances, 15 starts). Chicago’s lineup is stacked with several left-handed sluggers that appear poised to do some damage Friday night in Arizona, with Cody Bellinger representing the most obvious building block.
OF Cody Bellinger: $6,400
2B Nico Hoerner: $5,700
SS Dansby Swanson $5,400
3B/OF Christopher Morel: $5,300
OF Ian Happ: $4,900
OF Seiya Suzuki: $4,300
C Yan Gomes: $3,500
Giants vs. Rockies (RHP Chase Anderson)
Like we were going to skip over Coors Field on a Friday night, seriously? The San Francisco lefty stack is arguably the most appealing build for fantasy managers with LaMonte Wade Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, Joc Pederson and Michael Conforto, who is expected to return from the injured list for Friday’s series opener, all serving as excellent options.
Week 2 is here, and we’ve spotted plenty of value plays for the weekend. Every single week, I’ll be placing an Underdog/PrizePicks entry and breaking down each prop with analysis and key stats that will help you make money. Additionally, I will be using the Sportstopia DFS Optimizer to guide my research, which you can sign up for here!
Edmunds didn’t have the best "real-life" debut, but from a fantasy/betting perspective, he showed everything you want to see. He was one of the Bears big offseason additions, a versatile linebacker with a track record of success on the Bills. His versatility was a big selling point in the contract, and that’s what we’re looking to target here today.
Via PFF, he was one of the lowest-graded Bears in Week 1, but he still recorded eight total tackles + assist in the loss. Even with a rough showing, his large congrats and high snap share give me confidence that he will be right back out there this week.
What really stands out is the matchup, going up against checkdown King Baker Mayfield. For these linebacker tackle props, running back checkdowns and low ADOT targets are ideal, and Mayfield has constantly shown an inability to move the ball down the field outside of checkdowns.
Rewatching last week's victory against the Vikings, they only started to win when they threw away the "real QB playbook" and went into the "is that Colt McCoy playbook" instead.
Jake Camarda o4.0 Punts
If you thought linebackers were funky, things are about to get even crazier. While I can’t lie and say I’m some sort of expert in the special teams department, I see value in this play!
When evaluating a market like this, I obviously want high-volume punters, bad offensive teams, and non-aggressive head coaches that won’t push it on risky fourth downs. I think the Buccaneers fit the bill for all of these criteria.
Additionally, when you look at the market, a majority of teams that came into the season with a sub-500 win total, you’ll notice almost all of their punters are 4.5 or 5, giving us a little unwarranted cushion based on an opening week victory.
Camarda cleared this number in the team's opening victory, despite going against one of the worst defenses in the league. He had six punts despite the team scoring 20 points on the Vikings, which should give us confidence considering the Bears defense isn’t anything to be super concerned about.
The edge I give the Bears over the Vikings is the linebacker core, which will be very important in limiting a checkdown merchant like Baker Mayfield.
Camarda averaged 4.7 punts per game last season, with the best quarterback of all time at the helm, and all we need this guy to do is go over his season average with Baker Mayfield? Sign me up!
Now let’s leave that over on the PrizePicks and move over to underdog and play some head to head matchups.
DK Metcalf (+15.5 Yards) vs Amon-Ra Saint Brown
While the Seattle secondary didn’t look great last week, I expect them to fully key in on Amon Ra. They still have Woolen on the outside, and with the lack of secondary receivers, I would expect plenty of safety attention all game long.
On the other side, we have a Lions team that loves man coverage, and with Emmanuel Mosley ruled out once again, I feel confident in DK on the outside. We saw the Chiefs wide receivers get open plenty last week; they just weren’t actually able to convert on those catches.
I think the Lions may be a bit overrated, and the Seahawks come out aggressive in this one.
Josh Allen -24.5 Passing Yards vs Jimmy G
After a rough Week 1 performance, Josh Allen should strongly bounce back. Like I talked about on the Thursday DFS show, Allen will be my most popular starting point this week.
One of the many reasons I’ve loved betting on the Bills is they’ve remained top eight in PROE (pass rate over expectation) in neutral and positive game scripts, meaning they continue to throw the ball when they are winning AND losing.
They understand their strengths and weaknesses, and I’m expecting a full-on bounceback.
On the other side you have Jimmy G, who might be down Jakobi Meters, who led the team in targets in Week 1. We saw Breece Hall’s explosive rushing front and center on primetime, and I expect the Raiders to attack in a similar manner with Josh Jacobs.
The Raiders consistently ran the ball when they were behind last year, and now have a downgrade at quarterback. I think Allen could easily clear Jimmy G by 50+ yards.
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