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Weather Report

The first two games on the slate are in domes so we are all good there. The other four game have no inclement weather in sight, so it is smooth sailing all around.

Injury Report

Taylor Walls – Groin – Walls was available off the bench Wednesday and is expected to be in the Rays starting nine Thursday but double check before adding him.

Shohei Ohtani – Oblique – Ohtani has missed the entire week after tweaking his oblique in batting practice Monday. With everything going on with him and the team, don’t be surprised if he is out again Thursday.‍

Starting Pitchers

DK-FD

• Luis Castillo 11,000 10,300
• Max Fried 9,600 10,600
• Eduardo Rodriguez 9,100 9,900
• Ryan Pepiot 8,500 8,900
• Braxton Garrett 8,200 8,100
• Carlos Rodón 7,500 7,400
• Javier Assad 7,300 8,500
• Zack Littell 6,200 6,300
• Ryne Nelson 5,900 7,200
• Cal Quantrill 5,300 6,900
• Adam Wainwright 5,000 6,000

Luis Castillo is the highest pitcher on the slate, and he faces the Rays in Tampa Bay. On the season, Castillo has a 3.68 SIERA, 1.03 WHIP and a 27 percent strikeout rate. When he debuted with the Reds, he was a groundball pitcher, but his 39 percent groundball rate this season is easily the lowest of his career. He faces off against fifth best offense over the past 30 days, but he is backed by the second-best offense, so he could still pick up a win.

Ryan Pepiot has looked great since returning from injury last month. He has a1.29 ERA but his 3.23 SIERA shows that his performance so far has been a bitoverstate. That being said, he is going up against the Marlins, which have beena below league average offense over the last 30 days. The Marlins won the firsttwo games of series and it seems pretty improbable that the Dodgers will beswept.

Batter to Target

Adam Wainwright is the pitcher I’m targeting in this slate. The veteran right-hander has an 8.10 ERA to go along with an inflated 5.85 SIERA and putrid 11 percent strikeout rate. Marcell Ozuna ($4,800 DK/ $3,800 FD) has a .272 batting average against righties at home and his price point is too good to pass up.

Stack Attack

Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson) vs. Cubs:

DK-FD

• Cody Bellinger 6,300 4,000
• Mike Tauchman 3,800 3,000
• Seiya Suzuki 3,700 3,100 

Ryne Nelson is returning to the Diamondbacks rotation Thursday, just ahead of a big series against the Cubs. Seiya Suzuki’s price is one to bounce on as the Cubs outfielder is hitting .367/.411/.735 with seven homers over the past 30 days. Cody Bellinger’s resurgent season will surely payoff in the offseason when he signs a large contract in free agency but he can also help you in tonight’s slate. He is hitting .287/.310/.565 over the past month.

Mariners vs Rays (Zack Littell)

DK-FD

• Julio Rodríguez 6,500 4,300
• Dominic Canzone 3,400 2,500
• Mike Ford 3,200 2,700

Zack Littell's season has been a great story. He effortlessly moved from the bullpen to the rotation once the injury bug took most of the Rays rotation. However, he faces one of the best offenses over the past month.

After a disappointing start to the season, the fantasy superstar that is Julio Rodríguez has blossomed in the second half of the season and has moved back into discussion for a top five round draft next season. The price is steep, but is .389/.421/.731 slash line over the past month is hard to ignore.

To go a cheaper route, Mike Ford has been destroying right-handed pitching since he landed in Seattle. Over the past month, he is hitting .245/.385/.547 with five homers and could easy go deep in the Trop Thursday evening.

We’re finally here. After an eventful offseason that saw plenty of drama that helped satiate our cravings for on-field action, we’re now ready to kick off the 2023 season with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Detroit Lions on Thursday.‍

‍

Game

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. ET

‍Betting odds (DraftKings)

Line: Chiefs - 4.5‍

‍Moneyline: Chiefs +180, Lions -218

Over/Under: 53 points‍

‍Team ranks (2022)

‍Chiefs

Points for: 29.2 PPG (1st)

Points allowed: 21.7 (16th)‍

‍Lions

Points for: 26.6 (5th)

Points allowed: 25.1 (28th)

‍Key Injuries to Watch

Chiefs

• Travis Kelce: Knee, out ($18,000)
• Kadarius Toney: Knee, unspecified ($10,500)

Kelce’s is one of the biggest injuries to monitor throughout the regular season. The KC tight end hyperextended his knee in practice Tuesday and is still dealing with inflammation.

The good news is Kansas City believes the all-everything TE won’t miss considerable time, but with a short week of practice and 16 games to play after the opener, it wouldn’t be a shock if the Chiefs decided to take things slow.

With Kelce out, Noah Gray will likely get most of the snaps in his place, and he’s an intriguing -- if risky -- play for what could be a high-scoring affair.

Toney doesn’t have an injury designation, but the speedy wideout was limited early because of a knee issue, and it may prevent him from playing a full complement of snaps tonight.

It’s not injury-related, but the Chiefs will also be without Chris Jones, who’s still holding out for a contract extension. He’s one of the NFL’s best defensive linemen, and his ability to rush the passer will likely be missed Thursday.

Lions

The only player with an injury designation is defensive back Emmanuel Moseley, who has been ruled out with a knee injury. That means likely more playing time for Khalil Dorsey and Steven Gilmore but isn’t likely to play a major factor in the game.

Big names/big prices (DraftKings)

• Patrick Mahomes, QB, $18,300
• Travis Kelce, TE, $18,000
• Ahman-Ra St. Brown, WR, $15,300
• Jared Goff, QB, $14,100
• Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, $12,300
• Kadarius Toney, WR, $10,500
• Isaiah Pacheco, RB, $10,200
• David Montgomery, $9,00
• Marvin Jones Jr., WR, $9,300
• Jerrick McKinnon, RB, $8,400

Mahomes is the biggest name in football, and even if he is missing his favorite target in Kelce, there’s reason to believe he’ll have another monster game at Arrowhead. The 27-year-old has gotten off to hot starts in the previous two seasons, including a five-touchdown effort against the Cardinals in 2022 and 337 yards along with three passing scores vs the Browns in 2021.

The Lions ranked 30th in pass yards allowed, 31st in net yards per attempt and 23rd in passing touchdowns in 2022. Although the Detroit D should be improved, this is a tough task and an easy reason to play Mahomes. As if you needed one.

Gibbs will be making his NFL debut after the Lions surprisingly drafted the him 12th out of Alabama. The Lions will likely use Montgomery in a similar -- if not carbon copy -- mode to how they used Jamaal Williams in 2022.

But Detroit is going to make Gibbs a big part of the offense early and often, even if Montgomery might vulture a touchdown or four away from him in the 2023 campaign. And again, remember that the Chiefs won’t have Jones to help with either the run or pass defense.

St. Brown is going to be a target fiend again in 2023, but there are question marks about how the rest of the targets will look for Goff and the Detroit offense. Jones Jr. and Josh Reynolds are options that have had flashes of competence in their time in the league -- Jones Jr. obviously on a more consistent basis than Reynolds -- but neither represent an option that is going to keep teams from keying in on St. Brown.

While Goff was among the most improved players in the NFL last year, his lack of consistency from season-to-season and a supporting cast that doesn’t quite compete with the best make this a risky offense to target in DFS.

Sneaky options

Sam LaPorta, TE, DET $6500 (FanDuel)

The Lions draft LaPorta 35th out of tight end generator Iowa. In 2022, the Chiefs were in the bottom 10 in allowing fantasy points to tight ends, as several players were able to find room in the middle of the field against Kansas City, especially in those games where Kansas City was able to put up points and made the passing game a necessary option.

Playing a rookie tight end is risky, but it wouldn’t be a major surprise if LaPorta came away with a receiving score in his first professional opportunity.

Sky Moore, WR, KC $7700 (DraftKings)

Moore did not exactly pile up the fantasy points in 2023 during his rookie season, with just 33 targets and only 250 yards and no scores. He was a second-round selection by the Chiefs in 2022 thanks in large part to his speed, and no QB gets the ball downfield better than Mahomes.

Moore offers breakout potential with a chance to get off to a nice start with a friendly matchup tonight.

Noah Gray, TE, KC $3,600 (DraftKings)

Much of Gray’s value depends on whether or not Kelce plays. But even if he does, maybe consider Gray at this price point. It seems unlikely the Chiefs will risk their best non-Mahomes weapon for a full amount of snaps even if he is active, and Gray is fourth among returning players for the Chiefs in receptions with 28.

It’s a bit of a contrarian play if Kelce is in the lineup, but contrarian plays are often the ones that help DFS players finish with a good amount of cash.

Prediction

The Lions were one of the scrappiest teams in the NFL in 2022 under coach Dan Campbell, and the Chiefs could be without one of the true difference-makers in the sport in Kelce. Still, there’s a generational quarterback starting for Kansas City at home, so I’ll take the Chiefs to cover in what should be an entertaining way to open the season.

Chiefs 35, Lions 28

No position needs less said about it in fantasy football than the upper echelon of wide receivers. Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill all open the season in historical smash situations.

Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown, one of just two duos to both finish as top-10 fantasy receivers, have an interesting matchup in Week 1 against an underwhelming Patriots defensive backfield. Rookie Christian Gonzalez likely will track Smith, while head coach Bill Belichick utilizes a bracket-concept on Brown, due to his defensive strength at safety.

New England is known for taking away the opposing teams “best weapon,” but for Philadelphia, is that the dynamic duo at receiver or the legs of Jalen Hurts?

My favorite sleeper WR out of the gate was also my favorite sleeper WR in fantasy drafts. Michael Thomas played three games in 2022 with 22 targets, 16 receptions and 171 yards.

He finished as WR8 and WR18 over the first two weeks. Now that he’s the 'second option' in New Orleans, the 30-year-old star has a new quarterback and a chip the size of a flying saucer on his shoulder.

Don't miss the rest of Cody's Week 1 Positional Rankings:
Quarterback Rankings
Running Back Rankings
Tight End, Kicker, Def/ST Rankings

‍Rank-Player-Team-Opponent

1. Tyreek Hill MIA @LAC
2. Justin Jefferson MIN TB
3. CeeDee Lamb DAL @NYG
4. Keenan Allen LAC MIA
5. Ja'Marr Chase CIN @CLE
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown DET @KC
7. Garrett Wilson NYJ BUF
8. Amari Cooper CLE CIN
9. Devonta Smith PHI @NE
10. Stefon Diggs BUF @NYJ
11. Mike Evans TB @MIN
12. Davante Adams LV @DEN
13. Calvin Ridley JAX @IND
14. Courtland Sutton DEN LV
15. A.J. Brown PHI @NE
16. Jaylen Waddle MIA @LAC
17. Michael Pittman IND JAX
18. Deebo Samuel SF @PIT
19. Chris Olave NO TEN
20. D.J. Moore CHI GB
21. Tyler Lockett SEA LAR
22. DeAndre Hopkins TEN @NO
23. Skyy Moore KC DET
24. Diontae Johnson PIT SF
25. Michael Thomas NO TEN
26. D.K. Metcalf SEA LAR
27. George Pickens PIT SF
28. Christian Watson GB @CHI
29. Brandon Aiyuk SF @PIT
30. Tee Higgins CIN @CLE
31. Zay Flowers BAL HOU
32. Kadarius Toney KC DET
33. Jahan Dotson WSH ARI
34. Chris Godwin TB @MIN
35. Drake London ATL CAR
36. Tank Dell HOU @BAL
37. Van Jefferson LAR @SEA
38. Adam Thielen CAR @ATL
39. Mike Williams LAC MIA
40. Brandin Cooks DAL @NYG
41. Odell Beckham BAL HOU
42. Chase Claypool CHI GB
43. Treylon Burks TEN @NO
44. Marquise Brown ARI @WSH
45. Allen Lazard NYJ BUF
46. Jakobi Meyers LV @DEN
47. Elijah Moore CLE CIN
48. Puka Nacua LAR @SEA
49. Isaiah Hodgins NYG DAL
50. Gabriel Davis BUF @NYJ
51. Michael Gallup DAL @NYG
52. Quentin Johnston LAC MIA
53. Tyler Boyd CIN @CLE
54. Christian Kirk JAX @IND
55. Jayden Reed GB @CHI
56. Alec Pierce IND JAX
57. Darius Slayton NYG DAL
58. K.J. Osborn MIN TB
59. Robert Woods HOU @BAL
60. Jordan Addison MIN TB
61. Marvin Mims DEN LV
62. Laviska Shenault CAR @ATL
63. DeVante Parker NE PHI
64. Mack Hollins ATL CAR
65. Romeo Doubs GB @CHI
66. Rondale Moore ARI @WSH
67. Quez Watkins PHI @NE
68. Jalin Hyatt NYG DAL
69. Josh Downs IND JAX
70. Curtis Samuel WSH ARI
71. Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA LAR
72. Juju Smith-Schuster NE PHI
73. Michael Wilson ARI @WSH
74. Josh Palmer LAC MIA
75. Hunter Renfrow LV @DEN

They say everything is bigger in Texas, but I’m not sure Max Scherzer ($11000) and Justin Verlander ($10200) need the backdrop of the Lone Star State to hype up this matchup. The two-time former teammates will face off at 8:05 p.m. ET Wednesday as the Texas Rangers try to right the ship and the Houston Astros look to keep rolling.

If this battle seems too uncertain from a daily fantasy perspective, you can still roster an ace to build your stack. It’s worth noting that most rosters I built with the Contrarian Edge Optimizer today paired an ace with a cheaper option to lock in pitching value. The other ace taking the mound Wednesday is Spencer Strider ($12300) against St. Louis at Truist Park. Strider has at least 9 strikeouts each of his last three outings and will face a Cardinals team that is 4-6 in their last 10.

On the hitting side there are intriguing stacks to build around in a robust early slate or the main slate tonight. If you’re looking at the afternoon games, look no further than the Diamondbacks vs the Rockies' Chris Flexen at Chase Field. Flexen faced the D-Backs less than a month ago in Arizona and -- while he went six innings and struck out six -- he also gave up four earned runs including a home run to Christian Walker ($4600).

Walker will be leading my stacks today at 1B. He went 2 for 4 vs Flexen in August, but he’s been hot. Walker is slashing .319/.390/.593 with seven home runs over the last 30 days. Back him up with Geraldo Perdomo ($3400) for a cost-effective play at SS who has been on base at a .344 clip in the last month.

If you’re looking for a stack during the main slate on Draft Kings, check out Braves against the Cardinals. The Braves' Eddie Rosario ($4000) gives you a reasonably priced outfield option who has been slashing .308/.386/.522 with four home runs and two stolen bases over the last 30 days while hitting sixth in the best lineup in baseball. You can choose from a slew of elite options at the top of that lineup, but I like Ozzie Albies ($5700) at 2B. Albies has been excellent dating back to early August with a .333/.378/.507 slashline while hitting four home runs and stealing three bases.

Stacking Braves can be pricey, so pair that with a more cost-effective leadoff option from the Los Angeles Angels. Check the lineups before first pitch, as the Angels have played around with their lineups as of late. Nolan Schanuel ($3500) and Luis Regnifo ($4100) have been excellent at leadoff and could do damage against Kyle Gibson, who is gave up seven earned runs and struck out only two against the White Sox.

That outing was not an anomaly. Gibson has struggled in five games started dating back to August 5. He’s thrown 29⅔ innings with a whopping 7.89 ERA. While his 5.21 FIP indicates he’s been unlucky, that mark wouldn’t be a great month, either.

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The NFL season is upon us, with great drama and optimism for all (most) teams with aspirations of a run to Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas.

Prolific young passers Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts inked new deals over the offseason to ensure their teams are in the championship race for the next half decade. While the Arizona Cardinals parted ways with veteran Colt McCoy in favor 5th-round draft pick Clayton Rune, the Indianapolis Colts are starting rookie Anthony Richardson over Gardner Minshew. Richardson will be Indy's eighth different starting quarterback since 2019.

Offseason of RB Turmoil

The offseason of turmoil for running backs began with Miles Sanders receiving the biggest deal of the summer, a 4-year $25 million dollar contract with the Carolina Panthers. In six months, only five running back have received contract extensions. Three were for replacement level players, and the main two were only one-year extensions for Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs.

The market for 24- and 25-year-old backs is not what it was three seasons ago, when Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott received mega-deals.

‍

Ridley to Jacksonville a Great Move

In the wide receiver world, DeAndre Hopkins escaped Phoenix for greener pastures in Nashville to play with Derrick Henry and the Titans. My favorite offseason move belongs to Calvin Ridley.

Although the trade was made in November 2022, Ridley wasn’t allowed on campus until the spring. Ridley hasn’t played in an NFL game since October of 2021, but in just five games that season he totaled 52 targets in Atlanta.

A position once overlooked may now be the staple, when looking at tight ends in 2023. Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts are the only two tight ends since 2020 to be drafted in Round 1. Both are prolific pass-catchers with comparisons to a lot of wide receivers.

Record-Setting Deal

Darren Waller was traded to the New York Giants in March while being regarded as the “top receiving option”, while 26-year-old stud T.J. Hockenson inked a record-setting deal -- $16.5 million per season. That deal would make him the 16th highest paid wide receiver by annual salary.

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Don't miss the rest of Cody's Week 1 Positional Rankings:
Running Back Rankings
Wide Receiver Rankings
Tight End, Kicker, Def/ST Rankings

Rank-QB-Team-Opponent

1. Lamar Jackson BAL-HOU
2. Justin Herbert LAC-MIA
3. Patrick Mahomes KC-DET
4. Josh Allen BUF@NYJ
5. Tua Tagovailoa MIA@LAC
6. Jalen Hurts PHI@NE
7. Russell Wilson DEN-LV
8. Trevor Lawrence JAX-@IND
9. Kirk Cousins MIN-TB
10. Joe Burrow CIN@CLE
11. Justin Fields CHI-GB
12. Jared Goff DET@KC
13. Anthony Richardson IND-JAX
14. Dak Prescott DAL@NYG
15. Sam Howell WSH-ARI
16. Derek Carr NO-TEN
17. Aaron Rodgers NYJ-BUF
18. Deshaun Watson CLE-CIN
19. Baker Mayfield TB@MIN
20. Daniel Jones NYG-DAL
21. Geno Smith SEA-LAR
22. Kenny Pickett PIT-SF
23. Ryan Tannehill TEN@NO
24. Bryce Young CAR@ATL
25. Jordan Love GB@CHI
26. Brock Purdy SF@PIT
27. Desmond Ridder ATL-CAR
28. Matthew Stafford LAR@SEA
29. Clayton Tune ARI@WSH
30. C.J. Stroud HOU@BAL
31. Jimmy Garoppolo LV@DEN
32. Mac Jones NE-PHI
33. Joshua Dobbs ARI@WSH
34. Kyle Trask TB@MIN
35. Jacoby Brissett WSH-ARI

Lamar a Safe Choice, But What About Wilson? 

In three of the last four seasons, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have gotten off to very fast starts, most notably in 2019, when the Ravens went to Miami and put a 59-10 walking on the Dolphins. This ignited the storm that was Jackson’s MVP season. In 2022, Jackson and the Ravens started strong against the AFC East with Jackson totaling 12 touchdowns over the first three games of the season.

Russell Wilson is coming off of the worst year of his 10-year career, seeing efficiency drops in all categories, including completion percentage that has dropped almost nine points over the last two seasons. Wilson was consistently an undrafted option in fantasy football over the summer, and rightly so after losing Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler and most recently Jerry Jeudy in the receiving room.

New Regime in Denver

The positive is new head coach Sean Payton, offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and recently healthy rookie receiver, Marvin Mims. Mims brings back a dynamic to Wilson’s repertoire that only Tyler Lockett had, while being on the field with overlooked veteran Courtland Sutton.

Denver’s team total is projected as a middling 23.5 in Week 1, but Las Vegas continues to neglect putting high-end resources into the back end of their defense, and giving Lombardi and Payton an entire off-season to plan is something to bet on.

Geno Tries to Regain the Magic

Everything went right for Geno Smith during the first 12 weeks in 2022. He had a 72% completion percentage, better than a 3:1 touchdown-interception ratio and won seven games. But the back end of the season saw Geno return to the mean. He lost three of five games, dropped nine points in completion percentage and threw only eight touchdowns against five interceptions.

In Week 1, the Seahawks are seen as the fourth biggest favorite at some sportsbooks, but Rams coach Sean McVay and QB Matthew Stafford have had four months to plan for this one divisional matchup with Seattle, and Aaron Donald is healthy.

McCaffrey, McCaffrey, McCaffrey. If Christian McCaffrey is healthy it’s going to be difficult to assume anything less than a weekly top three finish in fantasy points on the 49ers.

All reports from the 49ers' training camp lead us to believe that head coach Kyle Shanahan & co. are being cognizant of McCaffrey's injury history, and want to use him more in the passing game while utilizing Elijah Mitchell and Tyrion Davis-Price between the tackles to keep the 27-year-old McCaffrey healthy.

What Can Bijan Do?

Rookie phenoms ofton garner lots of attention from the get-go, however the Bijan Robinson ranking in Week 1 may cause some to go into neurogenic shock. Robinson is one of just five running backs to be drafted in the top 10 over the last 10 seasons.

Those four notable debuts:

• Saquon Barkley finished as RB10 on 20 touches
• Leonard Fournette finished as RB4 on 29 touches
• Christian McCaffrey finished as RB17 on 14 touches
• Ezekiel Elliott finished as RB24 on 21 touches

Mostert Old But Productive

The oldest starting RB in Week 1, Raheem Mostert, clocked a run of 23.09 mph in 2022, second only to teammate Tyreek Hill. Mostert has played on 75%+ snaps just once in his career, and it came in Week 15 against the Buffalo Bills last season.

Mostert finished as the RB13 with 156 total yards that week. With Jeff Wilson on the short-term IR and rookie De’Von Achane not quite 100 percent, Mostert will dominate the backfield role in Miami in a mega-shootout with the Chargers.

Don't miss the rest of Cody's Week 1 Positional Rankings:
Quarterback Rankings
Wide Receiver Rankings
Tight End, Kicker, Def/ST Rankings

Doubt Derrick

Never fade the Big Dawg, except during the first month of the season. Derrick Henry is a larger-than-life fan favorite with superpowers for extremities. He will play an underrated Saints defense, while notoriously being a slow starter to the NFL season.

Henry has averaged 3.94 yards per carry over his career in September vs. 4.45 in October, and 5.13 in November.‍

Rank-Running Back-Team-Opponent

1.     Saquon Barkley NYG       DAL

2.    Austin Ekeler     LAC        MIA

3.    Christian McCaffrey        SF          @PIT

4.    Travis Etienne    JAX        @IND

5.    J.K. Dobbins       BAL        HOU

6.    Joe Mixon           CIN        @CLE

7.    Tony Pollard       DAL       @NYG

8.    Nick Chubb        CLE        CIN

9.    Raheem Mostert             MIA       @LAC

10.  Jahmyr Gibbs     DET       @KC

11.  Josh Jacobs        LV          @DEN

12.  Miles Sanders    CAR       @ATL

13.  Alexander Mattison        MIN       TB

14.  Bijan Robinson  ATL        CAR

15.  Jamaal Williams NO         TEN

16.  Brian Robinson WSH      ARI

17.  Aaron Jones       GB         @CHI

18.  Najee Harris      PIT         SF

19.  Rachaad White  TB          @MIN

20.  Kenneth Walker SEA        LAR

21.  Derrick Henry    TEN       @NO

22.  James Cook        BUF       @NYJ

23.  Antonio Gibson WSH      ARI

24.  Rhamondre Stevenson  NE         PHI

25.  Khalil Herbert    CHI        GB

26.  D'Andre Swift    PHI        @NE

27.  James Conner   ARI        @WSH

28.  Dameon Pierce  HOU      @BAL

29.  David Montgomery         DET       @KC

30.  A.J. Dillon           GB         @CHI

31.  Isiah Pacheco     KC          DET

32.  Samaje Perine   DEN       LV

33.  Cam Akers          LAR        @SEA

34.  Tyler Allgeier      ATL        CAR

35.  Michael Carter  NYJ        BUF

36.  Kenneth Gainwell            PHI        @NE

37.  Evan Hull            IND        JAX

38.  Tyjae Spears       TEN       @NO

39.  Rashaad Penny  PHI        @NE

40.  Dalvin Cook        NYJ        BUF

41.  Roschon Johnson            CHI        GB

42.  Zack Moss          IND        JAX

43.  Zach Charbonnet            SEA        LAR

44.  Javonte Williams             DEN       LV

45.  Devon Achane   MIA       @LAC

46.  Ezekiel Elliott     NE         PHI

47.  Breece Hall         NYJ        BUF

48.  Justice Hill          BAL        HOU

49.  Tank Bigsby        JAX        @IND

50.  Kyren Williams  LAR        @SEA

51.  Jaylen Warren   PIT         SF

52.  Rico Dowdle      DAL       @NYG

53.  Deon Jackson    IND        JAX

54.  Kendre Miller     NO         TEN

55.  Ty Chandler       MIN       TB

56.  Devin Singletary              HOU      @BAL

57.  Gus Edwards      BAL        HOU

58.  Elijah Mitchell    SF          @PIT

59.  Chuba Hubbard CAR       @ATL

60.  Jerick McKinnon              KC          DET

61.  Clyde Edwards-Helaire   KC          DET

62.  Cordarrelle Patterson     ATL        CAR

63.  Deuce Vaughn   DAL       @NYG

64.  Joshua Kelley     LAC        MIA

65.  Damien Harris   BUF       @NYJ

66.  Latavius Murray BUF       @NYJ

67.  Sean Tucker        TB          @MIN

68.  Jaleel McLaughlin            DEN       LV

69.  Chase Brown     CIN        @CLE

70.  Keaontay Ingram             ARI        @WSH

71.  Matt Breida        NYG       DAL

72.  Zamir White       LV          @DEN

73.  D'Onta Foreman              CHI        GB

74.  Jerome Ford       CLE        CIN

75.  Chris Evans        CIN        @CLE

‍

‍

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Tight End Thoughts

Hayden Hurst makes his return to Atlanta, where he spent two of his five seasons. As a Falcon, he played 29 games, earning just four targets per game while capturing a TE15 overall finish in points per game.

After spending two days at the Carolina training camp, it was apparent that Hurst would be the leader in targets for the Panthers. Head coach Frank Reich said "we don’t have a true No. 1 receiver" but later said “we have our guy” when discussing Hurst.

Houston has a hectic matchup in Week 1 with rookie C.J. Stroud under-center, with injuries ravaging the offensive line over the last month. The Texans will try the quick game underneath as well as the screen game out of the backfield.

Dalton Schultz, however, will not be working out of the backfield. He's a fresh face in Houston after spending five seasons in Dallas with over 2,000 receiving yards. Closing out the 2022 seasons, Schultz finished with seven top-5 finishes at TE.

Outside of Schultz, the projected leading targets are rookie Tank Dell and veteran Robert Woods.

Don't miss the rest of Cody's Week 1 Positional Rankings:
Quarterback Rankings
Running Back Rankings
Wide Receiver Rankings

‍Rank-Tight End-Team-Opponent

1. Mark Andrews BAL HOU
2. Darren Waller NYG DAL
3. T.J. Hockenson MIN TB
4. Dallas Goedert PHI @NE
5. Pat Freiermuth PIT SF
6. Kyle Pitts ATL CAR
7. Hayden Hurst CAR @ATL
8. Tyler Higbee LAR @SEA
9. Evan Engram JAX @IND
10. Gerald Everett LAC MIA
11. Jake Ferguson DAL @NYG
12. Noah Gray KC DET
13. Zach Ertz ARI @WSH
14. Dalton Kincaid BUF @NYJ
15. Hunter Henry NE PHI
16. Dalton Schultz HOU @BAL
17. David Njoku CLE CIN
18. Luke Musgrave GB @CHI
19. Chig Okonkwo TEN @NO
20. Juwan Johnson NO TEN
21. Noah Fant SEA LAR
22. Irv Smith CIN @CLE
23. Sam LaPorta DET @KC
24. Trey McBride ARI @WSH
25. Greg Dulcich DEN LV
26. C.J. Uzomah NYJ BUF
27. Dawson Knox BUF @NYJ
28. Cade Otton TB @MIN
29. Austin Hooper LV @DEN
30. Cole Kmet CHI GB
31. Isaiah Likely BAL HOU
32. Durham Smythe MIA @LAC
33. Kylen Granson IND JAX
34. Logan Thomas WSH ARI
35. Mike Gesicki NE PHI

‍Kicker Thoughts‍

If you did not draft Justin Tucker or Daniel Carlson, you are likely still looking for a kicker to bolster your rock solid roster in Week 1. This week’s value comes from the Tampa Bay-Minnesota game.

Chase McLaughlin is a great streamer after correcting a long three-season road trip, during which he was on six teams. McLaughlin made all his extra points while hitting a career high 30 field goals at an 83% clip, while finishing as K13 in 2022.

‍Rank-Kicker-Team-Opponent

1. Justin Tucker BAL vs. HOU
2. Greg Joseph MIN vs. TB
3. Daniel Carlson LV at DEN
4. Harrison Butker KC vs. DET
5. Brandon McManus JAX at IND
6. Tyler Bass BUF at NYJ
7. Jason Sanders MIA at LAC
8. Matt Gay IND vs. JAC
9. Jason Myers SEA vs. LAR
10. Younghoe Koo ATL vs. CAR
11. Evan McPherson CIN at CLE
12. Eddy Pineiro CAR at ATL
13. Chase McLaughlin TB at MIN
14. Wil Lutz DEN vs. LV
15. Cameron Dicker LAC vs. MIA

‍Defense Thoughts

Defense win championships, or so they said in the 1980’s. It’s 2023, and the majority of fantasy football leagues are still playing with team defense that feature limited weekly scoring. Pure randomness takes place in fantasy matchups, from a kick return touchdown to an opposing quarterback throwing five interceptions.

We've seen it all with defensive scoring. That’s why this week the top defense is out of the ordinary. Washington was not the first defense drafted this year, nor was it the second, third or fourth. Often, those missing out on defenses, aimed there eyes on the early season schedule that the Commanders will endure.

The Commanders will be a consistent part of this article throughout the season due to their up and down schedule. In Week 1-2 they play the lowly Cardinals and Broncos, before playing Buffalo and Philadelphia.

After two tough matchups, Washington will be back in primetime against Chicago, before a juicy matchup with Atlanta. The front even of the Commanders will keep them a top streamer throughout the season. However, in Week 1, I see them as the best play on defense against Clayton Tune and the Cardinals.

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Follow @CarpentierNFL on Twitter for updates

Weather Report

‍There’s some hot weather on tap for this holiday slate, but no games look to be in danger of being rained out.

Injury Report

Luis Robert (quad) -- Robert was scratched from the lineup the last two games because of cramping in his right quadricep. The outfielder is day-to-day, but with a day game upcoming, there’s a very good chance he won’t be in the lineup against the Royals on Monday.

Christian Walker (elbow) - Walker is dealing with an elbow contusion, but he came off the bench Sunday and hit a homer in the Diamondbacks’ loss to Baltimore. There’s a good chance he’ll start against Colorado on Monday, but fantasy GMs will want to make absolutely sure before adding him.

Yordan Alvarez (knee) -- Alvarez was able to stay in the game against the Yankees on Sunday, but Astros manager Dusty Baker told reporters the slugger did bang his knee after he tripped while attempting to make a play in left field. That he was able to stay in the game is a good sign, but Houston will take caution with Alvarez to begin a massive three-game series against the Rangers.

Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)

‍Justin Steele vs. SF: $10,000
Aaron Civale vs. TB: $9,700
Logan Webb vs. CHC: $9,500
Merrill Kelly vs. COL: $9300
Jose Berrios vs. OAK: $8800
J.P. France vs. TEX: $8400
Bryan Woo vs. CIN: $8000
Brayan Bello vs. TB: $7800

It’s not the deepest group of starting options, but there are some solid names. Steele is the priciest, and he’s somewhat quietly ranked second in all of baseball in wins (15) and ERA (2.69). The southpaw is coming off six innings of shutout baseball against the Brewers on Tuesday, and while the price is high, it’s certainly reasonable to expect solid numbers from the 28-year-old against a mediocre San Francisco lineup.

Berrios’ matchup against the A’s looks awfully good on paper, but this is one fantasy MS might want to take a closer look at before making the decision to place him in the lineup. After pitching well in the first half of the 2023 campaign, the right-hander has given up five runs in back-to-back starts with an ERA of 5.53 with only 23 strikeouts in 27.2 innings of work. The A’s, meanwhile, are coming off a sweep against the Angels to improve to a pathetic 42-95 record, but they’ve been playing much better as of late thanks to help from hitters like Zack Gelof. This isn’t the slam dunk on paper that you might believe.

Bellohas shown flashes of brilliance in his first full season with Boston, but there hasn’t been a ton of consistency, which is to be expected from a 24-year-old pitching in the AL East. He was shaky in his last outing against the Astros while not getting out of the fifth inning, but he only allowed one run in each of his two starts before that. He had a 3.34 ERA in six starts in August. The Rays are a tricky option and Bello doesn’t miss many bats, but you can justify him as your second starter because of his ability to initiate ground balls.

‍Sneaky option
Cole Ragans vs. CHW: $7,200

This one almost seems too easy. Ragans has been fantastic since joining the Kansas City rotation, and the southpaw has a fantastic 53/9 K/BB ratio over his last six starts. The left-hander will face a White Sox lineup that is probably going to be missing Robert, and even if the talented centerfielder returns to action, the rest of the lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Expect a lot of DFS players to be using Ragans so this isn’t as sneaky as you might think, but it’s impossible to not recommend Ragans at this price. Too easy.

‍Stack Attack

Mariners vs. Reds (Tejay Antone)

C Cal Raleigh $4,700
3B Eugenio Suarez $4,600
OF Julio Rodriguez $6400
OF Tesocar Hernandez $4600

Rodriguez and Hernandez were outstanding in August and have helped Seattle take a lead in the American League West into September for the first time in 20 years. Raleigh has also been excellent with the power, and getting to play in Great American Ballpark gives all four of these players a chance to go yard. Add in the fact that the Reds are going with a bullpen game, and it makes a ton of sense to load up on Seattle options for the first game of this three-game set.

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies (Peter Lambert)
‍1BChristian Walker $4,500
2B Ketel Marte $4,900
OF Corbin Carroll $5500
OF Tommy Pham $3500

Managers will want to make sure both Pham and Walker do return to the lineup, as we discussed the Walker injury and Pham is day-to-day with a finger injury. Either way, this is a matchup to exploit with the D-Backs taking on a mediocre-- at best -- starting option in Lambert. Carroll is always a good bet for a combo meal (homer and stolen base) and Marte has enjoyed a strong bounceback season from his disappointing 2022 campaign. Get as many Diamondback options into your lineup as you can for the main slate.

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Weather Report:

Even with a full slate, it doesn’t look likely that there will be any games that are impacted by the weather.

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‍Injury Report:‍

Jose Altuve - leg -- Altuve left Friday’s loss to the Yankees after fouling a ball off his leg. The injury does not appear to be serious, but there’s a chance he won’t return to the lineup for the Astros on Saturday. He’s considered day-to-day.

Danny Jansen - finger -- Jansen exited against the Rockies on Friday with what has been diagnosed as a fractured finger. The backstop is assuredly heading to the injured list before Saturday’s contest against Colorado, and Alejandro Kirk should see the majority of reps behind the plate for Toronto for the rest of the 2023 campaign.

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‍Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)

Blake Snell vs. SF: $11,300
Luis Castillo vs. NYM: $11,100
Aaron Nola vs. MIL: $10,600
Jordan Montgomery vs. MIN: $9,900
Kyle Bradish vs. ARI: $9,400
Hunter Brown vs. NYY: $8,800
Kyle Harrison vs. SD: $8,500
Bryce Elder vs. LAD: $8,300
Mike Clevinger vs. DET: $8,000
Tanner Houck vs. KC: $7,700

Plenty of aces will take the bump Saturday, and Snell is unsurprisingly the top-priced option for the slate. The veteran southpaw is coming off an outing where he fired seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts -- albeit with five walks as well -- and he registered an ERA of 3.00 thus far in August with a 37/17 K/BB ratio over five starts while picking up three wins. It’s an expensive play and one you’ll likely see plenty of managers play, but it’s not hard to justify against a mediocre San Francisco lineup.

Castillo has also been outstanding as of late, and he’s gone at least seven innings in his last three starts with the last two seeing him giving up just one run with a 15/1 K/BB. It’s worth pointing out that those starts came against the lowly White Sox and Royals, but he gets another friendly matchup with the Mets -- a team that is no longer in playoff contention and which has scored no more than three runs in eight of its last nine games.

Those who get a chance to watch Padres-Giants will see two talented lefties on the bump. Snell will be taking on Harrison, who is coming off a sensational outing against the Reds where he struck out 11 and allowed three hits over 6.1 scoreless frames. The left-hander has battled command issues in the minors and has issued three free passes in 9.2 innings at the highest level, but the 16 strikeouts in that timeframe tell you just how good Harrison’s stuff is. There’s plenty of risk and plenty of reward in Harrison’s arm, and the Padres are not the threat that many thought they would be to begin 2023.

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‍Sneaky option‍

Slade Cecconi vs. Bal: $6,000‍

It’s tough to recommend non-aces against Baltimore, but there’s good value with Cecconi for those who want to take a risk. The 24-year-old has not allowed more than two earned runs in any outing since joining the Arizona staff at the start of August. He’s coming off a strong outing against the Reds, where he allowed just one earned run over 5.2 quality frames. That low salary allows players to target some of the bigger name bats, and there’s reason to believe he can be successful, even against the quality Baltimore lineup.

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Stack Attack

Pirates vs. Cardinals (Drew Rom)

1B Connor Joe $3,500
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes $4,400
SS Alika Williams $2,100
OF Andrew McCutchen $4000‍

Rom offers long-term potential after being acquired by the Cardinals in the deal for Jack Flaherty, but he’s allowed 13 hits in nine innings, and the Pirates scored eight runs (six earned) when they faced the southpaw two outings again. All of the options above are on the less-expensive side of things and have a chance to pick up some knocks against a left-hander on the bump. You can stack these four and still target some of the major stars playing during the full slate.

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‍Blue Jays vs. Rockies (Ty  Blach)

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. $5500
2B Whit Merrifield $4900
3B Ernie Clement $2600
OF George Springer $5100

It’s lazy, but whenever you get a chance to stack a decent lineup in Colorado, you should do it. The Blue Jays offense -- which has been disappointing in 2023 -- scored 13 runs in their game Friday against Colorado. Blach has been effective in three of his last four starts, he’s a veteran journeyman due for regression, particularly when pitching in the unfriendly confines of Coors Field. Don’t be surprised if a couple of these hitters take Blach deep, and Springer and Merrifield offer the potential for a combo meal (homer plus stolen base).

Friday offers your usual smorgasbord of quality and quantity, with elite matchups like Atlanta taking on the Dodgers highlighting the evening but also intriguing offerings like Mets-Mariners, Orioles-Diamondbacks and Yankees-Astros.

Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Friday’s MLB slate.‍‍

‍Justin Verlander: 6.5 strikeouts -Higher (Underdog)‍

Houston's Verlander will be facing a Yankees’ lineup that has struggled throughout the year, and now will have a handful of rookies lined up Friday. In his last two starts, the future Hall of Famer has struck out 16 while not allowing a run. So, while this is a higher number for a hurler who no longer has elite swing-and-miss stuff, the opportunity is readily apparent here for Verlander to pile up the strikeouts in the worst New York lineup in a long time.

‍Corey Seager: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

‍Seager was excellent in August with a slash of .337/.417/.704 with 10 homers in what has quietly been one of his best offensive seasons even with injuries that have limited the left-handed hitting shortstop to 90 games as of Friday. He’ll go up against Joe Ryan, a talented hurler but who has allowed 26 homers in 131 innings with left-handed hitters posting an .818 OPS against him. As long as Seager is healthy, he’s a great bet in daily games to hit the over in on-base totals.

‍Cole Irvin: 2.5 runs - Over (Underdog)

‍Irvin has pitched well for most of August with a 2.25 ERA, but he’s been inconsistent, allowing four runs against the Rockies on Friday over six innings. The Diamondbacks offense has scored just one run over the last two games, but it’s a solid lineup with talented hitters who are due for some positive regression in the coming games. It just doesn’t seem like there’s enough upside to bet on a pitcher like Irvin in a game like this to hold a lineup to under three runs.

‍Bryce Harper + Christian Yelich: 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBI combo - Over (Prizepicks)

‍This is a fun one. Both Yelich and Harper have been swinging the bat well, but the challenge here is the pitchers they’ll be facing. Harper will go up against Freddy Peralta, while Yelich will swing the bat against Zack Wheeler. Those are two of the better pitchers in the National League --if not all of baseball -- but because of the way both Harper and Yelich are playing, it seems reasonable to expect at least one of those former MVPs to have a big game Friday.

‍Pete Alonso: 8.0 fantasy points - Lower(Underdog)

‍The man they call Polar Bear is always a threat to hit a round tripper or two, but Alonso will be facing off against Logan Gilbert, a pitcher who has been excellent in the second half of the season. And while the first baseman does have 39 homers in 2023, he’s also had significant contact issues. He’s struck out multiple times in five of his last seven games and 119 times in 459 at-bats. Add in the fact that Alonso doesn’t have many quality options to drive in and it’s hard to see him reaching that point total unless he goes deep.