Every Tuesday, I wake up and react to the shift in line movement after a weekend of NFL football. A line can shift for several reasons, sometimes for better or worse. In this series of articles, we look at three games a week and any associated line movement with them.
In Week 2, here are the three games with line movement that I am targeting.
Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) @ Detroit Lions
I went to this game immediately. Colleagues Sean Green and Ryan Kramer from the Sports Gambling Podcast put me on to a betting trend I have blindly tailed in almost every situation – the ‘Close Your Eyes Special.’
The Close Your Eyes Special is when a team underperforms the spread by 21+ points and is underdog the next week. Four teams underperformed the spread by 21+ points -- the Cincinnati Bengals, the New York Giants, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Seattle Seahawks. Only the Steelers and the Seahawks are underdogs this week, but let’s focus on the Seahawks.
The Detroit Lions got a three-point line move after Week 1from -2.5 to -5.5. The thought process behind the Close Your Eyes Special is that team that just got destroyed the week before is vastly underrated the next week. During the 2022 season the Close Your Eyes Special went 6-3 ATS with five outright wins.
The Lions had a few lapses in coverage but were fortunate with several drops by the Kansas City Chiefs. Seattle’s offense was dynamic last year, and they added one of the top receivers in the draft in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Last season, the Seahawks won this game 48-45. Expect Seattle keep it close again.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
The Packers surprised some in Week 1. Jordan Love passed for three touchdowns with help from running back Aaron Jones and wide receiver Romeo Doubs. This week’s line completely flipped from Falcons -1.5 to Packers -1.5. And I’m not sure it is enough.
The Packers are better, but the books are slow to keep up. This team has a great defense and Love showed he can steer the offense in the right direction. While the Falcons did get a divisional win last week, the benefited more from the rookie struggles of Bryce Young than their own merit. Desmond Ridder still is developing as a passer and unfortunately, he did not have Aaron Rodgers to sit behind. I like Coach LaFleur to outcoach Coach Smith in Love’s first road start.
New York Jets (+9.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
I could not in good faith leave this line out. Prior to Monday night, the Cowboys were three-point favorites. By the fourth quarter, with Rodgers out with an Achilles tear, the ‘Boys were at -7.5. And a day after the Jets’ miraculous punt return in overtime, the line is Cowboys -9.5.
The Jets are back to where they were last year with Zach Wilson running things, but Wilson does not quarterback the defense. That honor goes to C.J. Mosley, and his D forced four turnovers and gave up 16 points. Sauce Gardner and the defense had already broken out last season and have solidified themselves as one of the best in the league.
The Cowboys annihilated the New York Giants on Sunday night. Their defensive line wreaked havoc all night and gave the Giants offensive line all they could handle. While I do expect much of the same from them on defense, I expect the Cowboys to struggle to find ways to move the ball versus the Jets defense.
I’m very interested in seeing a Dak Prescott interception player prop price. The Jets will struggle on offense, but the Cowboys will as well. I think the Jets cover the +9.5 and I would seriously consider a look towards the under.
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