After a successful week of longshots, check out my favorite touchdown picks of the week!
Jalen Hurts (PHI QB)/Cooper Kupp (LAR WR) +364 TD (FanDuel)
Going with a same game parlay in the Eagles-Rams game (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday). There is already nice value here, with this being priced at +238 on DraftKings. Hurts and Kupp are their team’s best redzone weapons, and the total of this game is currently set at 50.5.
Hurts, the king of the tush push, has all the goal line carries on lockdown and should have plenty of chances with an implied team total higher than four touchdowns.
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This is also a good price for Kupp in his return. When healthy, he has been a redzone demon. The Rams are expected to be trailing, and QB Matthew Stafford will throw a lot against the Eagles’ strong run defense. They are especially weak against the slot, and that’s where Kupp will do a lot of his work.
Reports out of LA are that Kupp won’t be limited. I like his chances in a high-octane game.
De'Von Achane (MIA RB) 2+ TD’s +700 DK
Achane 2+ TD’s/David Montgomery (DET RB) 2+ TD’s +3420
Rookie Achane has six touchdowns over his last two games, showing next-level efficiency. He’s also out-snapped fellow Dolphin RB Raheem Mostert in back-to-back weeks, posting a 60-percentr snap rate to Mostert’s 44 percent last week.
The Dolphins are 12-point favorites against a miserable Giants defense, and we’ve really seen Achane blossom in the redzone. Miami had plenty of creative uses for him, and we’ve seen this Dolphins offense run up the score before (ask the Broncos about that).
Additionally, DraftKings has Achane priced much differently than the rest of the market, with his 1+ touchdown currently at +105 vs -125 to -175 everywhere else. For 2+ touchdowns, the next best price is +450, showing inherent value on these numbers.
Alec Pierce (IND WR) +430 & Kylen Granson (IND TE) +430 FanDuel
I like targeting longshot touchdown scorers in a game where Colts QB Anthony Richardson will be tasked with beating the Titans through the air. Tennessee’s excellent rush defense will focus on limiting RB Jonathan Taylor and thereby testing Richardson’s passing.
AR-15 has been inconsistent, but he’s also made very nice downfield throws. Pierce will get an opportunity or two downfield, and I like taking that chance against a defense struggling with explosive plays.
Granson really popped last game. He led the Colts TE group in snaps and was consistently involved on third downs. Richardson likes keying in on his tight ends, and Indy will be forced into more of a pass heavy game script.
Richardson will have a boom or bust game; I want some exposure if he can take advantage of this bad pass defense.